Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

Linking human activity and ecosystem condition to inform marine ecosystem based management

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渔业生态系统方法简述

考虑到生态系统状态对渔业的重要影响,渔业生态系统方法(Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries,EAF)把对生态的关注加入渔业管理框架中,并以生态系统管理和渔业管理2个理论为基础,扩展了传统渔业管理的框架:以生态系统健康与人类福利的依存关系为基础,关注多物种管理,均衡生态、人文和制度3个维度的目标,实现渔业的可持续发展。本研究介绍了EAF的由来、定义、基本原则以及功能要素,概述了EAF的实践基础和模型构建的技术路径,对比了EAF与EBFM的异同。虽然EAF的理论和实践仍处于完善和发展阶段,但确为渔业管理的发展方向,介绍EAF对促进我国渔业可持续发展具有重要意义。     

Relationship between fish assemblage and angler catch in the Sulejów Reservoir,central Poland,in the context of a warming climate

The Pilica River has warmed at a rate of 0.06°C per year since 1969, threatening the ecological services provided by the Sulejów Reservoir. Gillnet sampling revealed that the reservoir is inhabited by a cyprinid‐dominated fish assemblage with roach, Rutilus rutilus (L.) (42% of the total biomass), the dominant species. However, the interest of the anglers was primarily focused on common bream, Abramis brama (L.) (almost 65% of the catch), as revealed by the catch statistics (2004–2014). No direct evidence was found that the temperature increase had an influence on the recreational fishery or fish assemblage structure. On the other hand, changes in the fish assemblage that were reflected in angler catch composition were observed. A decrease in the catch of common bream in gillnets was accompanied by a shift in angler choices towards roach and other fish species. The sustainability of recreational fisheries is more likely to be influenced by changes in the economic status of society, water quality (toxic cyanobacteria blooms) and water management practices in Poland. The question arises about which species will dominate in the impoundment in the future if the warming trend continues and common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., stocking is maintained.     

Prognosis for long‐term sustainable fisheries in the African Great Lakes

Declines in fish yields and shifts in species composition are serious concerns in the African Great lakes of Tanganyika, Malawi (Nyasa/Niassa) and Victoria. Despite management and regulatory structures, all the lakes remain open‐access fisheries, severely depressing yields, economic returns and threatening biodiversity. While the lakes require an ecosystem‐based approach to management, this has not been realised because of a lack of institutional capacities, insufficient political will or simply being overwhelmed by the scale of the endeavour. Sustainable fisheries management can only be achieved through a refocus towards a stronger socio‐ecological approach and re‐evaluating how to realistically improve fish yield and environmental protection. This requires a combination of the following: (1) acceptance of suboptimal fish yields; (2) community‐enforced regulations that restrict access to fisheries and destruction of inshore habitats; (3) enhanced national and local institutional capacities and collaboration among the riparian states; and (4) major awareness and educational efforts that demonstrate the national and international importance of these lakes for food supply and biodiversity in pursuance of the Sustainable Development Goals. Without such actions, the prognosis for long‐term sustainable fisheries is bleak, and international projects and conferences will merely bear witness to further degradation of resources and the livelihoods they support.     

Contributions of food web modelling to the ecosystem approach to marine resource management in the Mediterranean Sea

Ecological modelling tools are applied worldwide to support the ecosystem‐based approach of marine resources (EAM). In the last decades, numerous applications were attempted in the Mediterranean Sea, mainly using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) tool. These models were used to analyse a variety of complex environmental problems. Many applications analysed the ecosystem impacts of fishing and assessed management options. Other studies dealt with the accumulation of pollution through the food web, the impact of aquaculture or the ecosystem effects of climate change. They contributed to the scientific aspects of an ecosystem‐based approach in the region because they integrated human activities within an ecosystem context and evaluated their impact on the marine food web, including environmental factors. These studies also gathered a significant amount of information at an ecosystem level. Thus, in the second part of this review, we used this information to quantify structural and functional traits of Mediterranean marine ecosystems at regional scales as the illustration of further potentialities of EwE for an EAM. Results highlighted differential traits between ecosystem types and a few between basins, which illustrate the environmental heterogeneity of the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, our analysis evidenced the importance of top predators and small pelagic fish in Mediterranean ecosystems, in addition to the structural role of benthos and plankton organisms. The impact of fishing was high and of a similar intensity in the western, central and eastern regions and showed differences between ecosystem types. The keystone role of species was more prominent in protected environments.     

Community participation in the development of the Ōngātoro/Maketū Estuary project: The socio‐ecological dimensions of restoring an interconnected ecosystem

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Limnological perspectives on conservation of floodplain lakes in the Amazon basin

1. Limnological aspects of Amazon floodplain lakes are examined in the context of aquatic conservation.
2. A prerequisite to detecting and evaluating changes that could threaten the ecological health and organisms in floodplain lakes is understanding variation under present conditions. Based on one of the few studies with regular measurements over 2 years, chlorophyll, total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, transparency, and total suspended solids in Lake Janauacá indicate that the lake is naturally quite variable with a mesotrophic to eutrophic status.
3. Direct threats to ecological health of floodplain lakes include mining operations that can increase turbidity and trace metals and reduce nutritional quality of sediments. Mercury contamination and methylation leads to bioaccumulation in aquatic organisms.
4. Deforestation in uplands increases nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to floodplain lakes and can alter trophic status. Deforestation in floodable forests alters the habitat and food of the fish that inhabit these forests.
5. Cumulative limnological responses as catchments are altered by urban, agricultural, and industrial developments, and as inundation is altered by changes in climate and construction of dams, have major implications for the ecology of floodplain lakes.
6. To improve understanding and management of threats to the conservation of aquatic Amazon biota and ecosystems requires considerably expanded and coordinated research and community-based management that includes the spectrum of floodplain lakes throughout the basin.

     

Fishing impact and environmental status in European seas: a diagnosis from stock assessments and ecosystem indicators

Stock‐based and ecosystem‐based indicators are used to provide a new diagnosis of the fishing impact and environmental status of European seas. In the seven European marine ecosystems covering the Baltic and the North‐east Atlantic, (i) trends in landings since 1950 were examined; (ii) syntheses of the status and trends in fish stocks were consolidated at the ecosystem level; and (iii) trends in ecosystem indicators based on landings and surveys were analysed. We show that yields began to decrease everywhere (except in the Baltic) from the mid‐1970s, as a result of the over‐exploitation of some major stocks. Fishermen adapted by increasing fishing effort and exploiting a wider part of the ecosystems. This was insufficient to compensate for the decrease in abundance of many stocks, and total landings have halved over the last 30 years. The highest fishing impact took place in the late 1990s, with a clear decrease in stock‐based and ecosystem indicators. In particular, trophic‐based indicators exhibited a continuous decreasing trend in almost all ecosystems. Over the past decade, a decrease in fishing pressure has been observed, the mean fishing mortality rate of assessed stocks being almost halved in all the considered ecosystems, but no clear recovery in the biomass and ecosystem indicators is yet apparent. In addition, the mean recruitment index was shown to decrease by around 50% in all ecosystems (except the Baltic). We conclude that building this kind of diagnosis is a key step on the path to implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.     

Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland

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Ecological repercussions of historical fish extraction from the Southern Ocean

A major mid-1980s shift in ecological structure of significant portions of the Southern Ocean was partially due to the serial depletion of fish by intensive industrial fishing, rather than solely to climate factors as previously hypothesized. Over a brief period (1969–1973), several finfish stocks were on average reduced to <50%, and finally (mid-1980s) to <20%, of original size. Despite management actions, few stocks have recovered and some are still declining. Most affected species exhibit K-selected life-history patterns, and before exploitation presumably fluctuated in accordance with infrequent strong year classes, as is true of such fish elsewhere. A climate regime, the Southern Annular Mode, once oscillated between two states, but has remained in its 'positive mode' since the time of the fish extraction. This may have increased finfish vulnerability to exploitation. As breeding stocks decreased, we hypothesize that availability of annually produced juvenile fish fed upon by upper-level predators remained low. Correlations between predator populations and fish biomass in predator foraging areas indicate that southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina , Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella , gentoo penguin Pygoscelis papua , macaroni penguin Eudyptes chrysolphus and 'imperial' shag Phalacrocorax spp. – all feeding extensively on these fish, and monitored at Marion, Crozet, Kerguelen, Heard, South Georgia, South Orkney and South Shetland Islands, where fishing was concentrated – declined simultaneously during the two periods of heavy fishing. These patterns indicate the past importance of demersal fish as prey in Antarctic marine systems, but determining these interactions' ecological mechanisms may now be impossible.     

Stable isotopes infer the value of Australia’s coastal vegetated ecosystems from fisheries

Wild capture fisheries provide substantial input to the global economy through employment and revenue. The coastal zone is especially productive, accounting for just 7% of the total area of the ocean, but supporting an estimated 50% of the world's fisheries. Vegetated coastal ecosystems—seagrass meadows, tidal marshes and mangrove forests—are widely cited as providing nutritional input that underpin coastal fisheries production; however, quantitative evidence of this relationship is scarce. Using Australia as a case study, we synthesized fisheries stable isotope data to estimate nutritional input derived from coastal vegetated ecosystems and combined these “proportional contribution” estimates with total annual catch data from commercial fisheries to determine species‐specific dollar values for coastal vegetated ecosystems. Based on the data from 96 commercially important fish species across Australian states (total landings 14 × 10⁶ tonnes pa), we provide a conservative estimate that Australia's coastal vegetated ecosystems contribute at least 78 million AUD per year to the fisheries economy. Two thirds of this contribution came from tidal marshes and seagrasses that were both equally valued at 31.5 million AUD per year (39.4%) followed by mangroves at 14.9 million AUD per year (18.6%). The highest dollar values of coastal ecosystems originated from eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) and giant mud crab (Scylla serrata). This study demonstrates the substantial economic value supported by Australia's coastal vegetated ecosystems through commercial fisheries harvest. These estimates create further impetus to conserve and restore coastal wetlands and maintain their support of coastal fisheries into the future.     

The impact of methodological choices on the outcome of national‐level climate change vulnerability assessments: An example from the global fisheries sector

Climate change vulnerability assessments have been receiving increasing attention from policymakers and academics. Given scarce funds for adaptation, the UNFCCC Secretariat has suggested that eligible countries be prioritized for support based on their vulnerability to climate change. National‐level fisheries sector climate change vulnerability assessments as well as other overall vulnerability assessments to date have lent support to the idea that least developed countries (LDCs) are more vulnerable to climate change than small island developing states (SIDS) and other coastal countries. We demonstrate that these perceived differences in vulnerability among country groups are partly due to methodological choices made during these assessments. We argue that national‐level vulnerability assessments, and particularly those dealing with the fisheries sector, often suffer from four main methodological shortcomings: (i) an inconsistent representation of countries belonging to each group, (ii) use of socioeconomic indicators that are not scaled to population size, (iii) use of a small number of indicators and (iv) lack of accounting for potential redundancy among indicators. Building on a previous framework, we show that by addressing the four aforementioned methodological shortcomings, the ranking in fisheries sector vulnerability among SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries is altered significantly. Our results underscore that the vulnerability of SIDS was partially concealed in previous assessments and suggest that SIDS are in fact the most vulnerable group. Although this study focuses on assessing the vulnerability of the fisheries sector to climate change in SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries, the implications also apply to other sectors and country groupings.     

A low cost field‐survey method for mapping seagrasses and their potential threats: an example from the northern Gulf of Aqaba,Red Sea

1. In the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA), coral reefs are considered the dominating ecosystem, while seagrass meadows, recognized worldwide as important ecosystems, have received little attention. Absence of comprehensive seagrass maps limits awareness, evaluations of associated ecosystem services, and implementation of conservation and management tools. 2. Presented here are the first detailed maps of seagrass meadows along the Israeli coast of the northern GoA. Mapping was performed by snorkelling along transects perpendicular to the shore above meadows growing at 15–25 m. Measurements along these transects included position, meadow depth and visual estimations of seagrass cover. Shallow boundaries of meadows, parallel to shore, were recorded by GPS tracking. Supplementary work included drop‐camera boat surveys to determine the position of the deeper edge of meadows. In addition, GIS layers were created that indicated shoreline infrastructures, near‐shore human activities and potential pollution threats. Ecosystem services of seagrass meadows mapped were valuated using a benefit transfer approach. 3. In total, 9.7 km of the 11 km shoreline were surveyed and 2830 data points collected. Seagrasses were growing along 7.5 km of the shoreline, with shallow (15–25 m) meadows found to cover an area of 707 000 m² and valued at more than US$ 2 000 000 yr^‐1 in associated ecosystem services. Pilot drop‐camera surveys (additional 283 data points) indicated that meadows can extend down to 50 m in some places. Coastal uses and threats varied in character and location. A municipality runoff point and drainage canal located close to the largest meadow were identified as the main threats to local seagrasses. 4. These low‐cost methods enhance our understanding of seagrass distribution in the northern GoA. They demonstrate a GIS‐based tool for assessing how environmental changes might affect the cover and state of seagrasses, improving efforts to conserve seagrass, and have particular relevance to seagrass mapping in developing countries and/or island nations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.