Induction of vertical zones in sub-alpine valley forests by avalanche-formed fuel breaks

Vertical zonation of forests in high mountains is normally explained in terms of climatic variation, but avalanche tracks can act as fuel-breaks in southern Alberta Rocky Mountain forests. This is an additional way of explaining the spruce-fir (Picea engelmannii (Parry) Engelm. - Abies lascioparpa (Hook.) Nutt.) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. var. latifolia Wats.) communities of the upper and lower sub-alpine zones. The hypotheses are that: 1) Fires start more often at lower than high altitude and that, as they spread into high valleys, 2) they are halted where avalanche tracks reach the valley bottom from both slopes. Also, (3) the average return interval of fires will be greater above this avalanche block, and 4) vegetation above the block will consist primarily of near-climax, fire-intolerant communities. These hypotheses were tested using the Highwood Pass (50 °21 N, 114 °26W) in the Rocky Mountains of southern Alberta, Canada. Maps of avalanche tracks and past fires, a point-centered quarter survey of forest stands, and disturbance histories established by increment coring were used to test the hypotheses which were all upheld. Thus avalanche tracks are one of the complex of factors limiting fires in the sub-alpine zone of the Alberta Rocky Mountains. The results, additionally, imply that vertical vegetation zones in temperate high mountains are influenced, not only by climatic factors, but also by avalanches and other landforms.     

Distribution of the Cinnabar moth Tyria jacobaeae L. at landscape scale: use of linear landscape structures in egg laying on larval hostplant exposures

The distribution of the xerothermophilous Cinnabar moth Tyria jacobaeae was studied in a low mountain region in western Germany between 1989 and 2001. T. jacobaeae started its immigration into the study area in 1989 and first established populations in climatically favoured habitats like abandoned quarries and train stations where the larval host plant, ragwort (Senecio jacobaea), occurs. Analysis of landscape features (altitude, morphology) reveals that T. jacobaeae then dispersed along valleys with roads to higher altitudes of the study area. Elevations of occupied sites increased between 1989 and 2001. In order to investigate whether dispersal is affected by linear structures like valleys or roads with gravelled verges, hostplant exposures were placed at a distance of 600 m to the next population of T. jacobaeae. The experiments suggest that egglaying predominantly took place on exposures in valleys with roads and sparsely plant-covered verges but can also occur along valleys lacking roads and suitable habitats. However, larvae were never recorded on Senecio exposures which were placed aside from valleys and roads.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Post-storm surveys reveal large-scale spatial patterns and influences of site factors,forest structure and diversity in endemic bark-beetle populations

The storm that struck France on december 26^th and 28^th 1999 felled 140 million m³ of timber and had a high economic, social and landscape impact. This event offered the opportunity to study large-scale patterns in populations of forest insect pests that would benefit from the abundant breeding material. A large-scale survey was carried out in France in 2000 to sample the most frequently observed species developing on spruce (Ips typographus, Pityogene schalcographus) and pine (Tomicus piniperda, Ips sexdentatus) in 898 locations distributed throughout wind-damaged areas. The local abundance of each species scored on a 0 to 5 scale was analysed using geostatistical estimators to explore the extent and intensity of spatial autocorrelation, and was related to site, stand, and neighbourhood landscape metrics of the forest cover (in particular the interconnection with broadleaf forest patches) found within dispersal distance. All species but I. sexdentatus, which was much less abundant, displayed large-scale spatial dependence and regional variations in abundance. Lower infestation levels per tree (windfalls and standing trees) were observed in stands with a high proportion of wind-damaged trees, which was interpreted as the result of beetles distributing themselves among the available breeding material. More infestations were observed in wind-broken trees as compared to wind-felled trees. More importantly, populations showed significant relationships with the structure of coniferous stands (in particular with the number of coniferous patches). T. piniperda population levels were negatively correlated to the amount of coniferous edge shared with broadleaf forest patches, possibly because of the disruptive effect of non-host volatiles on host-finding processes at the landscape-scale. The differences observed between species regarding patterns and relationships to site, stand, and forest cover characteristics are discussed in relation to the ecological characteristics of each species.     

The need for biological realism in habitat modeling: a reinterpretation of Zharikov et al. (2006)

Zharikov et al. (2006: Landscape Ecology 21:107–120) modeled the nest-site habitat use of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in Desolation Sound (DS) and Clayoquot Sound (CS), British Columbia. They compared known nest sites, located with radio-telemetry, with randomly-located points within the same areas. Their conclusions suggest that murrelets tended to nest in disproportionately smaller fragments within the more disturbed DS landscape; streams, steeper slopes, and lower elevations were selected in both landscapes; murrelets nested closer to recent clearcuts than would be expected in the DS landscape; and survivorship of nestlings was greater in areas with recent clearcuts and was positively correlated with recent habitat fragmentation. These conclusions are contrary to current management guidelines in British Columbia, and therefore require close scrutiny. Our detailed examination reveals flaws in their use of data, application of modeling, and most seriously, interpretation of the results. Problems include: conceptual errors in the interpretation of models; inappropriate spatial resolution; confusing use and interpretation of fragmentation and patch size data; overemphasis of statistically significant but biologically trivial results; and ignoring some contradictory studies. We conclude that it would be risky to apply the results from Zharikov et al. in the selection of murrelet nesting habitat for management purposes in British Columbia. Our review identifies issues that may arise in other ecological modeling studies and stresses the need for biological realism in addition to statistical rigour.     

A positive response of mountain pine beetle to pine forest-clearcut edges at the landscape scale in British Columbia,Canada

In British Columbia, large-scale salvage harvesting has been underway to recover timber value from forest stands infested by mountain pine beetle during the current outbreak. Understanding the response of beetles to clearcut edges particularly at the landscape scale is crucial to understanding the impacts of increased habitat fragmentation due to salvage harvesting on the spread of the beetle infestations. A novel proximity analysis approach based on null models of complete spatial randomness with three different spatial extents was developed to examine the spatial patterns of infestations in relation to cutblocks. Inhomogeneous Poisson point process models were fitted to predict how intensities of infestations varied with distances to the nearest cutblocks. Marked Poisson point process models were also fitted to evaluate the effects of the variables associated with the nearest cutblocks and adjacent infested pine stands on the edge response of beetles. The results clearly illustrated a significant positive edge response of beetles at the landscape scale. The intensities of infestations decreased non-linearly with distances to the nearest cutblocks. The results also suggested that the quality and distribution of key habitat resources could not fully explain the fundamental mechanisms underlying the edge response. The behavioural change of beetle dispersal at edges may also be an important factor contributing to a positive edge response. The results from this study may be useful in improving the efficacy of mountain pine beetle management efforts.     

Assessing Spatial Uncertainty Associated with Forest Fire Boundary Delineation

Uncertainty in managing forested landscapes arises from many sources, including complexities inherent in forest ecosystems and their disturbance processes. However, gaining knowledge about forested ecosystems at the landscape level is often impeded by limitations in collecting comprehensive, representative, as well as accurate data sets. Historical reference data sets about past disturbances are also mostly lacking. In the case of ground fires, however, records of past fires can be obtained by analyzing fire scars using dendrochronology. While the temporal series of disturbance can be determined, there is still uncertainty about the spatial limits of individual forest surface fires. Here, we investigate how a patch-based method (fuzzy set membership) and a boundary-based uncertainty method (boundary membership) can help determine the spatial uncertainty related to forest fire events and their boundary locations. We compare these methods using fire scar data from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) sampled at 33 1-ha plots in a 1500-ha study area within the Stein River watershed (British Columbia). Patch-based fire maps, using multiple constraints, were derived for years 1785–1937. We compared the resulting total fire event maps with the boundary-based method, finding that depending on values chosen for the patch-based method, negative correlation was present (though very modest: r = − 0.1, p ≤ 0.05) between some maps. However, significant positive correlation between maps (though again modest: r = 0.22, p ≤ 0.05) was found under the least constrained patch-based methods, suggesting that fire patches are counted more than once in riparian zones. Our results suggest that these two methods provide complementary information about historical fire size and spatial limits. Quantifying spatial uncertainty about fire size and fire boundary location using a boundary membership method can contribute to not only understanding past fire regimes but also to providing better estimates of area burned.     

Trees outside forests in agricultural landscapes: spatial distribution and impact on habitat connectivity for forest organisms

Context

Various species of forest trees are commonly used for ornamental purposes and are therefore frequently found in nonforest ecosystems. They constitute an important component of the so-called trees outside forests (TOF). Not much is known, however, about the drivers of TOF spatial distribution either in urbanized or in agricultural landscapes since they are generally absent from forest inventories.

Objective

The present study focused on the spatial distribution of TOF across agricultural landscapes and their potential role in the dispersal of a forest pest insect, the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa (PPM).

Methods

All the TOF belonging to the genera Pinus, Cedrus and Pseudotsuga were considered as potential hosts and inventoried within a 22 × 22 km study window. We fitted a nonstationary Poisson process to the empirical data and used the distance to the nearest building as a covariate.

Results

Both empirical and simulated data indicated that TOF associated to human artifacts/urbanized areas constituted the main source of landscape connectivity for the PPM in the open fields under study. Because they do not account for TOF, forest inventories dramatically underestimate landscape connectivity and provide an erroneous picture of the PPM habitat distribution.

Conclusions

We conclude that TOF, especially the ornamental component, must be taken into account when it comes to understanding forest insect landscape dynamics or genetics. The omnipresence of TOF also suggests a potentially huge role in pest dispersal and invasive species expansion.

     

Genetic isolation by distance and landscape connectivity in the American marten (Martes americana)

Empirical studies of landscape connectivity are limited by the difficulty of directly measuring animal movement. ‘Indirect’ approaches involving genetic analyses provide a complementary tool to ‘direct’ methods such as capture–recapture or radio-tracking. Here the effect of landscape on dispersal was investigated in a forest-dwelling species, the American marten (Martes americana) using the genetic model of isolation by distance (IBD). This model assumes isotropic dispersal in a homogeneous environment and is characterized by increasing genetic differentiation among individuals separated by increasing geographic distances. The effect of landscape features on this genetic pattern was used to test for a departure from spatially homogeneous dispersal. This study was conducted on two populations in homogeneous vs. heterogeneous habitat in a harvested boreal forest in Ontario (Canada). A pattern of IBD was evidenced in the homogeneous landscape whereas no such pattern was found in the near-by harvested forest. To test whether landscape structure may be accountable for this difference, we used effective distances that take into account the effect of landscape features on marten movement instead of Euclidean distances in the model of isolation by distance. Effective distances computed using least-cost modeling were better correlated to genetic distances in both landscapes, thereby showing that the interaction between landscape features and dispersal in Martes americana may be detected through individual-based analyses of spatial genetic structure. However, the simplifying assumptions of genetic models and the low proportions in genetic differentiation explained by these models may limit their utility in quantifying the effect of landscape structure.     

Advance regeneration and seed banking of woody plants in Ohio pine plantations: Implications for landscape change

Silviculturally-managed pine plantations within southern Ohio are chronically disturbed patches of introduced vegetation distinct from the surrounding matrix of hardwood forest. To determine the successional pathways by which such pine stands might blend back into the hardwood forest matrix under different types of silvicultural management, we determined the current status of hardwood regeneration under 24 pine stands. Stands of Pinus virginiana (Virginia pine) had the highest density of hardwood seedlings and saplings (20,560 stems ha^-1) whereas P. strobus (white pine) stands averaged only 7090 hardwood stems ha^-1; P. resinosa (red pine) stands were intermediate. The most abundant hardwood seedling and sapling species under pine canopies were Acer rubrum and Cornus florida. DCA ordination of the seedling + sapling assemblages clustered most of the P. resinosa and P. strobus stands in the center of the ordination along with a group of species which are common in second-growth forests of the area. P. virginiana stands, in contrast, were scattered throughout the ordination space. Most of the woody species common in second-growth forests of the region were also common in the pine understory. Multiple regression indicated that large plantations with deeper litter, higher soil pH and lower total hardwood density had the greatest abundance of mesic-site species in the understory. This relationship did not hold for P. resinosa stands, however, due to more frequent and intense silvicultural intervention. The seed bank was not an important source of woody seedlings to the understory assemblage under intact pine plantations. The vegetation of 1–4 yr old clear-cut sites was dominated by wind and bird dispersed species which were generally absent from the understory of intact plantations. We conclude these chronically disturbed planted patches will revert to matrix vegetation faster if the disturbance is allowed to end in a gradual manner through stand senescence than if it is abruptly ended by clear-cutting.     

Effects of varying forest edge permeability on seed dispersal in a neotropical montane forest

Hard (high-contrast with pastures) and soft (low-contrast with old-fields) forest edges created by slash-and-burn agriculture have become common landscape features in regions dominated by neotropical montane forest. However, little is know about the impacts of such edge types on forest regeneration dynamics. The consequences of varying forest edge permeability for oak acorn dispersal were investigated in a forest mosaic in the Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico. Rates of acorn production and removal, as well as the abundance and composition of small mammal seed consumers, were monitored along these different edge types (hard vs. soft) at specific distances from forest edges into forest patches and adjacent grasslands during two consecutive years. Results show that acorn removal declined significantly only in grasslands of sites characterised by hard edges (Logistic regression, P < 0.05). Movements of metal-tagged acorns support the hypothesis that soft edges are more permeable to small mammals, with rodents moving acorns up to 15 m into grasslands of sites with soft edges. In sites with hard edges, higher rates of acorn dispersal were recorded from the forest edge towards the forest interior. Peromyscus spp. were the main acorn predators and/or dispersers of acorns present in our study sites. Rates of acorn removal during a non-masting year were greater than the subsequent mast-seeding year (85% removal within 138 days vs. 75% within 213 days), demonstrating that mast seeding may allow some seeds to escape predation. The implications of these results for oak dispersal and regeneration along edges in fragmented tropical forest landscapes are discussed.     

Fire severity and seed source influence lodgepole pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus contorta</Emphasis> var. <Emphasis Type="Italic">murrayana</Emphasis>) regeneration in the southern cascades,Lassen volcanic National Park,California

Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine, (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) regenerates quickly after high severity fire because seeds from serotinous cones are released immediately post-fire. Sierra lodgepole pine (P. contorta var. murrayana) forests burn with variable intensity resulting in different levels of severity and because this variety of lodgepole pine does not have serotinous cones, little is known about what factors influence post-fire regeneration. This study quantifies tree regeneration in a low, moderate, and high severity burn patch in a Sierra lodgepole forest 24 years after fire. Regeneration was measured in ten plots in each severity type. In each plot, we quantified pre- and post-fire forest structure (basal area, density), counted and aged tree seedlings and saplings of all species, and measured distance to the nearest seed bearing tree. There was no difference in the density of seedlings and saplings among severity classes. Distance and direction to the nearest seed bearing lodgepole pine were the best predictors of lodgepole seedling and sapling density in high severity plots. In contrast to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine, regeneration of Sierra lodgepole pine appears to rely on in-seeding from surviving trees in low or moderate severity burn patches or live trees next to high severity burn patches. Our data demonstrate that Sierra lodgepole pine follows stand development pathways hypothesized for non-serotinous stands of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine.     

Simulating the reciprocal interaction of forest landscape structure and southern pine beetle herbivory using LANDIS

The reciprocal interaction of landscape structure and ecological processes is a cornerstone of modern landscape ecology. We use a simulation model to show how landscape structure and herbivory interact to influence outbreaks of southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann) in a landscape representative of the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. We use LANDIS and its biological disturbance agent module to simulate the effects of landscape composition (proportion of landscape in host area) and host aggregation on the size and severity of insect outbreaks and the persistence of the host species, Table Mountain Pine (Pinus pungens Lamb.). We find that landscape composition is less important in the modeled landscapes than host aggregation in structuring the severity of insect outbreaks. Also, simulated southern pine beetle outbreaks over time tend to decrease the aggregation of host species on the landscape by fragmenting large patches into smaller ones, thereby reducing the severity of future outbreaks. Persistence of Table Mountain pine decreases throughout all simulations regardless of landscape structure. The results of this study indicate that when considering alternative restoration strategies for insect-affected landscapes, it is necessary to consider the patterns of hosts on the landscape as well as the landscape composition.     

A multi-scale analysis of western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics

Context

Forest insect outbreaks are influenced by ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, including host-insect interactions within stands and across landscapes that are modified by regional-scale variations in climate. These drivers of outbreak dynamics are not well understood for the western spruce budworm, a defoliator that is native to forests of western North America.

Objectives

Our aim was to assess how processes across multiple spatial scales drive western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics. Our objective was to assess the relative importance and influence of a set of factors covering the stand, landscape, and regional scales for explaining spatiotemporal outbreak patterns in British Columbia, Canada.

Methods

We used generalized linear mixed effect models within a multi-model interference framework to relate annual budworm infestation mapped from Landsat time series (1996–2012) to sets of stand-, landscape-, and regional-scale factors derived from forest inventory data, GIS analyses, and climate models.

Results

Outbreak patterns were explained well by our model (R ² = 93%). The most important predictors of infestation probability were the proximity to infestations in the previous year, landscape-scale host abundance, and dry autumn conditions. While stand characteristics were overall less important predictors, we did find infestations were more likely amongst pure Douglas-fir stands with low site indices and high crown closure.

Conclusions

Our findings add to growing empirical evidence that insect outbreak dynamics are driven by multi-scaled processes. Forest management planning to mitigate the impacts of budworm outbreaks should thus consider landscape- and regional-scale factors in addition to stand-scale factors.

     

Landscape resistance and American marten gene flow

Landscape heterogeneity can influence animal dispersal by causing a directional bias in dispersal rate, as certain landscape configurations might promote, impede, or prevent movement and gene flow. In forested landscapes, logging operations often contribute to heterogeneity that can reduce functional connectivity for some species. American martens (Martes americana) are one such species, as they are considered specialists of late-seral coniferous forests. We assessed marten gene flow to test the hypothesis that habitat management has maintained landscape connectivity for martens in the managed forests of Ontario, Canada. We genotyped 653 martens at 12 microsatellite loci, sampled from 29 sites across Ontario. We expected that if forest management has an effect on marten gene flow, we would see a correlation between effective resistance, estimated by circuit theory, and genetic distance, estimated by population graphs. Although we found a positive relationship between effective resistance and genetic distance (Mantel r = 0.249, P < 0.001), marten gene flow was better described by isolation by Euclidean distance (Mantel r = 0.410, P < 0.001). Our results suggest that managed forests in Ontario are well connected for marten and neither impede nor promote marten gene flow at the provincial scale.     

Modeling the invasive emerald ash borer risk of spread using a spatially explicit cellular model

The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus sp.) throughout midwestern North America, killing millions of trees over the years. With plenty of ash available throughout the continent, the spread of this destructive insect is likely to continue. We estimate that the insect has been moving along a “front” at about 20 km/year since about 1998, but more alarming is its long-range dispersal into new locations facilitated by human activities. We describe a spatially explicit cell-based model used to calculate risk of spread in Ohio, by combining the insect’s flight and short-range dispersal (“insect flight”) with human-facilitated, long-range dispersal (“insect ride”). This hybrid model requires estimates of EAB abundance, ash abundance, major roads and traffic density, campground size and usage, distance from the core infested zone, wood products industry size and type of wood usage, and human population density. With the “insect flight” model, probability of movement is dependent on EAB abundance in the source cells, the quantity of ash in the target cells, and the distances between them. With the “insect-ride” model, we modify the value related to ash abundance based on factors related to potential human-assisted movements of EAB-infested ash wood or just hitchhiking insects. We attempt to show the advantage of our model compared to statistical approaches and to justify its practical value to field managers working with imperfect knowledge. We stress the importance of the road network in distributing insects to new geographically dispersed sites in Ohio, where 84% were within 1 km of a major highway.     

Experimental evidence of the effects of a changed matrix on conserving biodiversity within patches of native forest in an industrial plantation landscape

We implemented a replicated before-after-control-impact (BACI) experiment to quantify vertebrate response in native forest patches to a major change in the surrounding exotic Radiata Pine (Pinus radiata) plantation. We contrasted vertebrate occupancy of patches of native eucalypt forest where the surrounding stands of exotic Radiata Pine (Pinus radiata) were clearfelled (termed “treatment patches”) with matched “control patches” where surrounding pine stands remained unlogged. Different species of arboreal marsupials varied in their response to our experimental treatments. The Common Ringtail Possum was unaffected by cutting of the surrounding pine stands, whereas all sightings of the Mountain Brushtail Possum were in control patches. For birds, species richness was significantly reduced by 4–9 species in treatment patches. Birds with cup and dome nests were those negatively affected by the cutting of the surrounding pine stands. They may be susceptible to altered microclimatic conditions or increasing levels of nest predation when the surrounding pine matrix is clearfelled. Our study emphasized how the biota inhabiting retained patches of native forest within plantation landscapes can be changed when stands of surrounding Radiata Pine are clearfelled. In the case of birds, more species will be maintained within eucalypt patches if logging is scheduled so that not all the surrounding pine plantation is clearfelled at once.     

Gap-crossing decisions by forest birds: an empirical basis for parameterizing spatially-explicit,individual-based models

Spatially-explicit, individual-based models are increasingly used to evaluate the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on habitat use and population persistence. Yet, they are criticized on the basis that they rely on little empirical data, especially regarding decision rules of moving individuals. Here we report the results of an experiment measuring the gap-crossing decisions of forest birds attracted to a recording of chickadee(Poecile atricapillus) mobbing calls, and provided with options to travel to the speaker by either crossing an open area (short cut) or taking a longer route under forest cover (detour). We performed the experiment in winter and late summer near Québec City, Québec, Canada. We recorded 1078 travel paths from 6 resident and 12 migratory species in 249 experimental sites. In both seasons, birds preferred to travel under forest cover rather than cross open areas, even when the forested detour conveyed a substantially longer route than the short cut in the open. Only when the detour under forest cover. This was considerably longer than the short-cut in the open, in both relative and absolute terms, were birds more likely to take short cuts, indicating that gap-crossing decisions are scale dependent. However, birds rarely ventured >25 m from forest edges despite having the opportunity to do so. Except for Hairy Woodpeckers (Picoides villosus) which ventured further into the open, all species showed similar gap-crossing decisions. Residents remained marginally closer to forest edges in late summer as compared to in winter. Conspecific group size had no influence on gap-crossing decisions. This experiment supports the hypothesis that forest bird movements are constrained in fragmented landscapes, and provides opportunities to calibrate spatially-explicit, individual-based models addressing the influence of landscape composition and configuration on dispersal. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seismic Cutlines,Changing Landscape Metrics and Grizzly Bear Landscape use in Alberta

Besides providing habitat to the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) and other wildlife, the Rocky Mountain foothills of Alberta, Canada hosts considerable mining, seismic oil and gas exploration and production, and forest harvesting activities. Worldwide, such human activities influence the configuration and composition of the landscape. We assessed seismic cutline effects on landscape structure and grizzly bear use during early summer of 1999 and 2000. We studied five female and two male bears, which were GPS-collared in the spring following den emergence. The area available to this population was stratified into 49 km² hexagon-shaped sub-landscapes. The scale of this stratification was determined by patterns of bear movement. Fourteen compositional and configurational landscape metrics were calculated within each landscape unit, and bear use points were pooled or ‘binned’ within each unit. Landscape use was related to landscape metrics using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). We found that seismic cutline proportion did not explain landscape use by grizzly bears; however secondary effects of cutlines on landscape structure did. Declining use was mainly associated with increasing proportions of closed forest, and increasing variation of inter-patch distances, while use was mainly increasing with increasing mean patch size. An earlier investigation had demonstrated that adding seismic cutlines to grizzly bear habitat caused increases in the variation of inter-patch distances. Since the landscape structure of this grizzly bear population will continue to change as a function of increased levels of resource extraction activities in the near future, it is crucial to further study the detailed meaning of landscape structure at the large and small scale for effective conservation efforts.     

Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: An analysis for five eastern US species

We used a combination of two models, DISTRIB and SHIFT, to estimate potential migration of five tree species into suitable habitat due to climate change over the next 100 years. These species, currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada, are Diospyros virginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood), Pinus taeda (loblolly pine), and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). DISTRIB uses a statistical approach to assess potential suitable habitat under equilibrium of 2 × CO₂. SHIFT uses a cellular automata approach to estimate migration and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary, forest density inside and outside of the boundary, and distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary, SHIFT creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied target cell will become colonized over 100 years. By evaluating the probability of colonization within the potential ‘new’ suitable habitat, we can estimate the proportion of new habitat that might be colonized within a century. This proportion is low (<15%) for all five species, suggesting that there is a serious lag between the potential movement of suitable habitat and the potential for the species to migrate into the new habitat. However, humans could hasten the migration of certain species by physically moving the propagules, especially for certain rare species that are unable to move sufficiently through fragmented landscapes, or even more common species, e.g., beech, that have lost many of their animal dispersers.     

Landscape characteristics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhizophora mangle</Emphasis> forests and propagule deposition in coastal environments of Florida (USA)

Field dispersal studies are seldom conducted at regional scales even though reliable information on mid-range dispersal distance is essential for models of colonization. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential distance of dispersal of Rhizophora mangle propagules by comparing deposition density with landscape characteristics of mangrove forests. Propagule density was estimated at various distances to mangrove sources (R. mangle) on beaches in southwestern Florida in both high-and low-energy environments, either facing open gulf waters vs. sheltered, respectively. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems were used to identify source forests and to determine their landscape characteristics (forest size and distance to deposition area) for the regression analyses. Our results indicated that increasing density of propagules stranded on beaches was related negatively to the distance of the deposition sites from the nearest stands of R. mangle and that deposition was greatly diminished 2 km or more from the source. Measures of fragmentation such as the area of the R. mangle forests were related to propagule deposition but only in low-energy environments. Our results suggest that geographic models involving the colonization of coastal mangrove systems should include dispersal dynamics at mid-range scales, i.e., for our purposes here, beyond the local scale of the forest and up to 5 km distant. Studies of mangrove propagule deposition at various spatial scales are key to understanding regeneration limitations in natural gaps and restoration areas. Therefore, our study of mid-range propagule dispersal has broad application to plant ecology, restoration, and modeling.