Removal of nonnative fish results in population expansion of a declining amphibian (mountain yellow-legged frog, Rana muscosa)

The mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) was once a common inhabitant of the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), but has declined precipitously during the past century due in part to the introduction of nonnative fish into naturally fishless habitats. The objectives of the current study were to describe (1) the effect of fish removal from three lakes (located in two watersheds) on the small, remnant R. muscosa populations inhabiting those lakes, and (2) the initial development of metapopulation structure in each watershed as R. muscosa from expanding populations in fish-removal lakes dispersed to adjacent habitats. At all three fish-removal lakes, R. muscosa population densities increased significantly following the removal of predatory fish. The magnitude of these increases was significantly greater than that observed over the same time period in R. muscosa populations inhabiting control lakes that remained in their natural fishless condition. Following these population increases, R. muscosa dispersed to adjacent suitable (but unoccupied) sites, moving between 200 and 900 m along streams or across dry land. Together, these results suggest that large-scale removal of introduced fish could result in at least partial reversal of the decline of R. muscosa. Continued monitoring of R. muscosa at the fish-removal sites will be necessary to determine whether the positive effects of fish eradication are sustained over the long-term, especially in light of the increasingly important role played by an emerging infectious disease (chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) in influencing R. muscosa populations.     

Microsatellite variability within and among local landrace populations of tea, Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze, in Kyoto, Japan

Genetic variability within and among eight landrace populations of tea (Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze) located in southern Kyoto, Japan, was surveyed with six microsatellite markers. The average number of alleles per locus was 3.83 to 4.67 for landrace populations, whereas the corresponding value among modern cultivars and breeding lines was 6.63. Expected heterozygosity values averaged over loci within landrace populations ranged from 0.498 to 0.723. A similar level of variation, 0.682, was observed for cultivars and breeding lines. High fixation index values (0.177–0.417) for each population are consistent with biparental inbreeding within the population. Genetic differentiation among local populations was extremely low with F _ST = 0.062, although AMOVA revealed significant differentiation among landrace populations. We propose that these populations share a common ancestral gene pool and that some degree of artificial selection within each population has been performed by local farmers. Neighbor-joining analysis revealed that genetic relationships among populations reflect geographical location of populations. This might result from more frequent genetic exchange by nearby farmers.     

Low levels of genetic variation among southern peripheral populations of the threatened herb, Leontice microrhyncha (Berberidaceae) in Korea

Levels of genetic variation and intrapopulation genetic structures of Leontice microrhyncha S. Moore (Berberidaceae) were assessed for six populations in South Korea, representing the southern most range of a species found in Northeast China and the Korean peninsula. Detected genetic diversity (H_es) was very low (0.024) and F_IS values showed large heterozygote deficiencies. The small percentage of polymorphic loci and numbers of alleles per locus suggest that L. microrhyncha has a history of severe or long-lasting population bottlenecks that have eroded genetic diversity. This study suggests that the Korean population appears to consist of two historically isolated and independently evolving populations. It seems likely that these groups have been isolated and unstable for a significant period of time. However, the effects of recent habitat fragmentation on the historically disjunct and fragmented population system found in L. microrhyncha were not those predicted from the lack of significant relationships between population-level patterns of genetic variation and population sizes. Most non-unique genotypes were shared by most individuals and the lower level of diversity, high levels of inbreeding and population differentiation as well as high rate of seed production indicated that this species is autogamous and self-compatible and probably largely selfing. Therefore, to preserve extant genetic variation, all populations must be protected across the small geographic range of the species to retain both allelic and genotypic diversity.     

Modeling connectivity of black bears in a desert sky island archipelago

Landscape features such as rivers, mountains, desert basins, roads, and impermeable man-made structures may influence dispersal and gene flow among populations, thereby creating spatial structure across the landscape. In the US–Mexico borderland, urbanization and construction of the border fence have the potential to increase genetic subdivision and vulnerability to isolation in large mammal populations by bisecting movement corridors that have enabled dispersal between adjacent Sky Island mountain ranges. We examined genetic variation in black bears (Ursus americanus) from three regions in central and southern Arizona, US, to assess genetic and landscape connectivity in the US–Mexico border Sky Islands. We found that the three regions grouped into two subpopulations: the east-central subpopulation comprised of individuals sampled in the central highland and high desert regions, and the border subpopulation comprised of individuals sampled in the southern Sky Islands. Occupancy for the border subpopulation of black bears was influenced by cover type and distance to water, and occupancy-based corridor models identified 14 potential corridors connecting border Sky Island habitat cores with the east-central subpopulation. Biological quality of corridors, defined as length:width ratio and proportions of suitable habitat within corridors, declined with Sky Island dispersion. Our results show that black bears in the border subpopulation are moderately isolated from the east-central subpopulation, the main population segment of black bears in Arizona, and that connectivity for border bears may be vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, such as those associated with urbanization and trans-border security.     

Genetic differences between the two remaining wild populations of the endangered Indian rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis)

The management of rare and endangered species in the wild and in captivity requires an understanding of the characterization of the genetic units within each species and their relationships to each other. The Indian rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is an endangered species with a current population size of c. 2800 individuals. We analyzed 26 individuals of known origin kept in captivity and 21 wild ranging individuals of the two remnant large wild populations in Assam (India) and Nepal employing mitochondrial and microsatellite markers to determine whether the two geographically isolated populations show distinct patterns of genetic diversity, and whether the genetic diversity of the populations is influenced by past demographic bottlenecks. We identified 10 different mitochondrial D-loop haplotypes, of which 4 were specific to the Assam population (10 sequences examined) and 6 specific to the Nepal population (19 sequences). Similarly, the microsatellite analysis demonstrated a strong genetic differentiation between the Assam and Nepal populations and allowed to assign each individual to its origin with high confidence. Furthermore, our analyses revealed the occurrence of a bottleneck in the Assam population long before the reported bottleneck in 1908, and it revealed that the Nepal population is a recent (probably post-glacial) colonization. In summary, the extent of genetic divergence between the two remnant R. unicornis populations suggests separate conservation programs (even for captive individuals) as long as the persistence of the entire species is not severely threatened. The microsatellite markers can also be used to determine the origin of confiscated material such as horns.     

Phylogeographic patterns and possible incipient domestication of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Jacaratia mexicana</Emphasis> A. DC. (Caricaceae) in Mexico

Jacaratia mexicana A. DC. (Caricaceae) is a tropical tree distributed throughout Mexico and Mesoamerica. Some evidence in Mexico indicates the presence of an incipient domestication process in this species. Phylogeographical analyses can potentially determine contemporary patterns of gene flow, isolation between population lineages, as well as historical processes such as population bottlenecks or expansions on their geographical areas. In this study we reconstruct the phylogeographical patterns in populations of J. mexicana A. DC., in order to find differences between genetic variation among wild and cultivated populations utilizing chloroplast DNA and nuclear DNA sequences. We generate a Bayesian phylogenetic tree, to estimate the divergence time between clades using calibrated mutation rates. We also infer the demographic history of these populations using neutrality tests among wild and cultivated accessions. We identified higher levels of haplotype and nucleotide diversity for the cpDNA and ITS types in wild populations than in domesticated populations. These results indicate a reduction of genetic diversity derived from human selection on domestication traits. Neutrality test suggests population expansion detected by the significant negative values of Fu’s Fs in the cultivated populations of this specie. These process results in an excess of rare polymorphism with the fixation of certain advantageous mutation throughout time, this implication are in accordance with the role of the strong selection in the fruit traits of J. mexicana. The dated phylogeny constructed with BEAST program indicated a dispersion pattern for the J. mexicana ancestors across the South Pacific and South Eastern populations during the late Pliocene. Posterior dispersion and divergence in the clades from Central Mexico and North Pacific are in agreement with the episodes of mountain-building in different regions of Mexico.     

Does reduced MHC diversity decrease viability of vertebrate populations?

Loss of genetic variation may render populations more vulnerable to pathogens due to inbreeding depression and depletion of variation in genes responsible for immunity against parasites. Here we review the evidence for the significance of variation in genes of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) for conservation efforts. MHC molecules present pathogen-derived antigens to the effector cells of the immune system and thus trigger the adaptive immune response. Some MHC genes are the most variable functional genes in the vertebrate genome. Their variation is clearly of adaptive significance and there is considerable evidence that its maintenance is mainly due to balancing selection imposed by pathogens. However, while the evidence for selection shaping MHC variation on the historical timescale is compelling, a correlation between levels of MHC variation and variation at neutral loci is often observed, indicating that on a shorter timescale drift also substantially affects MHC, leading to depletion of MHC diversity. The evidence that the loss of MHC variation negatively affects population survival is so far equivocal and difficult to separate from effects of general inbreeding. Some species with depleted MHC variation seem to be particularly susceptible to infection, but other species thrive and expand following severe bottlenecks that have drastically limited their MHC variation. However, while the latter demonstrate that MHC variation is not always critical for population survival, these species may in fact represent rare examples of survival despite of the loss of MHC variation. There is clearly a compelling need for data that would disclose the possible consequences of MHC diversity for population viability. In particular, we need more data on the impact of MHC allelic richness on the abundance of parasites or prevalence of disease in populations, while controlling for the role of general inbreeding. Before such evidence accumulates, captive breeding programs and other conservation measures aimed at inbreeding avoidance should be favoured over those protecting only MHC variation, especially since inbreeding avoidance programs would usually conserve both types of genetic diversity simultaneously.     

Temporal genetic analysis of the critically endangered oriental white-backed vulture in Pakistan

Populations of oriental white-backed vultures (Gyps bengalensis) in south Asia have declined over 95% since the mid-1990s due to feeding on livestock carcasses that had been treated with diclofenac, an anti-inflammatory pharmaceutical that is fatal to Gyps vultures. To prevent extinction, captive breeding efforts have been initiated; however, given the overall decline, it is not known to what extent levels of genetic diversity currently exist in the remaining populations. Here we document temporal genetic diversity levels during the 2000-2006 interval for the last remaining breeding colony of oriental white-backed vultures in Pakistan, and show with simulations that a much larger captive population size is required than currently maintained to prevent further loss of genetic diversity. Before this species is extinct in the wild, it is crucial that additional individuals are included in the captive population.     

湖南典型茶树地理种群遗传多样性研究

本文利用RAPD分子标记技术，对4个湖南典型茶树地理种群的240个单株的遗传多样性、种群内和种群间的遗传变异进行研究，结果表明：21个10碱基随机引物共检测到226条谱带，其中多态性谱带为201条，占88.9%。遗传多样性分析结果显示：Shannon's多样性指数为0.43，74.7%的变异分布于群体内，而种群间变异占了25.3%；Nei's指数群体总基因多样度(HT)为0.37，群体内平均基因多样度(HS)0.28，群体间的基因多样度(HST)0.09，群体Nei's基因分化系数（GST）为0.23，说明76.7%的变异存在于种群间，群体内的变异占了总变异的23.3%，与Shannon's多样性指数相比基本一致，均表明种群内有较丰富的遗传变异；种群间的基因流（Nm）为0.74，显示种群间的基因交流有限。     

Behavioural and morphological variation between captive populations of red junglefowl (Gallus gallus) - possible implications for conservation

The escalating threats to ecosystems worldwide have lead to a need for efficient methods to breed animals in captivity and to prepare captive-born animals for release back to the wild. However, life in captivity may lead to modifications in the animal’s behaviour mainly by genetic changes, including behavioural adaptations such as reduced predator responses. Such modifications may seriously affect survival after a reintroduction. The present study was a first screening of behavioural and morphological variation between different captive populations in standardized test situations using red junglefowl as a model species. The birds were tested in three different test situations in order to measure anti-predatory behaviour, social behaviour and exploratory behaviour. The results of this study clearly show that there are behavioural differences between the captive populations which potentially can be crucial for the animals in a reintroduction situation. However, the extent to which these differences are due to genetic changes caused by small breeding populations or adaptations to the different captive environments is not yet known, although morphological differences found suggest that genetic variation may cause some of the behavioural differences as well. The differences found imply that life in captivity can affect an animal’s behaviour and even though the red junglefowl is merely used as a model here, this suggests that these aspects may be important to consider also in other species where reintroduction is a more central motive for keeping the animals in captivity.     

Genetic variation within and among populations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Orychophragmus violaceus</Emphasis> (Cruciferae) in China as detected by ISSR analysis

Orychophragmus violaceus, a ground covering plant that is widely distributed in China. It has both high economical value in food, forage, health care and ornamental value in gardening. In this study, the genetic diversity of 245 individuals from nine populations in China were investigated using the inter-simple sequence repeat markers. Of the 100 primers screened, eight were highly polymorphic. Using these primers, 162 discernible DNA fragments were generated with 150 (92.59%) being polymorphic, indicating a pronounced genetic variation at the species level. Also, there were high levels of polymorphism at the population level with the percentage of polymorphic bands ranging from 85.74 to 90.06%. Analysis of molecular variance showed that the genetic variation within populations was 80.80% and the variance among populations was 16.43%. The Nei’s G _ST (0.1643) and gene flow among populations (Nm = 2.5760) revealed large gene exchanges among populations. O. violaceus belongs to out-crossing plants. It is capable of reproducing by self-sowing, thus can influence population genetic structure. The pronounced genetic variation within populations tells us that O. violaceus is a proper plant for genetic research and that there is great potential of breeding this species for gardening.     

Population management of threatened taxa in captivity within their natural ranges: Lessons from Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) in Venezuela

Populations of threatened taxa in captivity within their natural ranges can make important contributions to conservation, but these may be compromised by the inappropriate application of population management goals developed in other contexts. We conducted demographic, genetic, and population viability analyses on the captive population of Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) in Venezuela to investigate the management of within-range captive populations in general, and to better integrate this population into the conservation of Andean bears in particular. We found that although the present population is very small and not internally self-sustaining, incorporation of confiscated wild individuals has resulted in a low average number of generations in captivity and low inbreeding, with moderate gene diversity and a high probability of future population persistence. However, past imports from extra-range populations have been from over-represented lineages of unknown origin, which have mixed with under-represented Venezuelan ones, reducing the future value of the Venezuelan population as a source for founder stock. Our analyses indicate that the rate of incorporation of wild recruits is a major factor influencing proxy measures of conservation value, and distinguishing within- from extra-range populations. This implies that, contrary to conventional wisdom, internal self-sustainability can be a misguided goal in within-range populations, which furthermore may not be suitable destinations for surplus animals from captive populations elsewhere.     

Population genetic diversity of the endemic Sardinian newt Euproctus platycephalus: implications for conservation

The Sardinian mountain newt Euproctus platycephalus, endemic to the island of Sardinia, (Italy), is considered a rare and threatened species and is classed as critically endangered by IUCN. It inhabits streams, small lakes and pools on the main mountain systems of the island. Threats from climatic and anthropogenic factors have raised concerns for the long-term survival of newt populations on the island. MtDNA sequencing was used to investigate the genetic population structure and phylogeography of this endemic species. Patterns of genetic variation were assessed by sequencing the complete Dloop region and part of the 12SrRNA, from 74 individuals representing four different populations. Analyses of molecular variance suggest that populations are significantly differentiated, and the distribution of haplotypes across the island shows strong geographical structuring. However, phylogenetic analyses also suggest that the Sardinian population consists of two distinct mtDNA groups, which may reflect ancient isolation and expansion events. Population structure, evolutionary history of the species and implications for the conservation of newt populations are discussed.     

MtDNA genetic diversity and population history of a dwindling raptorial bird, the red kite (Milvus milvus)

The red kite (Milvus milvus) occurs in a relatively small area in the southwestern Palearctic region, with population strongholds in Central Europe. Following strong human persecutions at the beginning of the 20th century, populations have receded, particularly in peripheral areas and islands. In order to describe and compare levels of genetic diversity and phylogeographic patterns throughout its entire distribution in Europe, sequence variation of a 357 bps part of the mitochondrial DNA control region was assessed in eight populations and 105 individuals. Overall, results indicate that population declines have affected red kite mtDNA variation. We found low levels of genetic diversity (values of nucleotide diversity ranging from 0 in Majorca island to 0.0062 in Central Europe), with only 10 distinct haplotypes, separated by low levels of genetic divergence (mean sequence divergence = 0.75%). Highest haplotype and nucleotide diversities match with demographic expectations, and were found in Central European and Central Spanish samples, where present strongholds occur, and lowest values in the declining southern Spanish and insular samples. Φst estimates indicated moderate gene flow between populations. Phylogeographic patterns and mismatch distributions analyses suggest central European regions may have been colonized from southern glacial refugia (in the Italian or Iberian peninsulas). Interspecific phylogenetic comparisons and divergence date estimates indicated the genetic split between the red kite and its closely related species, the black kite (Milvus migrans), might be relatively recent. The low level of genetic variation found in the red kite mitochondrial control region, compared to the black kite, is likely the result of relatively recent divergence (associated with founder events), successive bottlenecks and small population sizes. As there are several ongoing projects aimed at reinforcing populations in countries such as the United Kingdom, Italy or Spain, our results may prove useful for the genetic management of the species.     

Assessment of genetic diversity in cultivars and wild accessions of Luohanguo (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Siraitia grosvenorii</Emphasis> [Swingle] A. M. Lu et Z. Y. Zhang), a species with edible and medicinal sweet fruits endemic to southern China,using RAPD and AFLP markers

Genetic variation of wild populations and cultivars of Luohanguo (Siraitia grosvenorii), a plant species endemic to southern China, was assessed using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. Based on the results for 130 individuals from seven populations, a high level of genetic diversity of Luohanguo was observed at the species level. The percentage of polymorphic loci (P) was 89.4%, Nei’s gene diversity (H _e) was 0.239, and Shannon’s information index (H _o) was 0.373 based on the combined AFLP and RAPD data. There was a high degree of genetic differentiation, with 45.1% of the genetic variation attributed to differences between the populations. The genetic diversity of the Luohanguo cultivars is much lower than that of wild populations (P = 41.8%, H _e = 0.141, H _o = 0.211), and a distinct genetic differentiation is observed between the cultivars and wild accessions. The pool of genetic variation in the wild populations provides an excellent gene resource for Luohanguo breeding.     

Reduced effective population size in an overexploited population of the Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus)

Unchecked exploitation of wildlife resources is one of the major factors influencing species persistence throughout the world today. A significant consequence of exploitation is the increasing rate at which genetic diversity is lost as populations decline. Recent studies suggest that life history traits affecting population growth, particularly in long-lived species, may act to moderate the impact of population decline on genetic variation and lead to remnant populations that appear genetically diverse despite having passed through substantial demographic bottlenecks. In this study we show that the retention of genetic variation in a partially recovered population of Nile crocodile is deceptive, as it masks the reality of a significant decline in the population’s effective size (N_e). Repeated episodes of unchecked hunting in the mid to late 20th century have today led to a five-fold decrease in the population’s N_e. Using current census data we estimate the contemporary N_e/N ratio as 0.05 and, in light of quotas that permit the ongoing removal of adults, simulated the likely effects of genetic drift on extant levels of variation. Results indicate that even if the current effective size is maintained, both allelic diversity and heterozygosity will decline. Our findings have complex implications for long-lived species; an emphasis on the retention of genetic variation alone, whilst disregarding the effects of population decline on effective size, may ultimately obscure the continued decline and extinction of exploited populations.     

Ecological and genetic effects on demographic processes: pollination, clonality and seed production in Dithyrea maritima

The relative importance of ecological and genetic factors in regulating the demographic processes of small populations is unknown for most rare plants. Dithyrea maritima (beach spectacle pod; Brassicaceae) is a rare, rhizomatously spreading, and self-incompatible herbaceous perennial endemic to coastal sand dunes of southern California. Low seed production in this species may be caused by insufficient pollinator visits, which may be exacerbated by competition for pollinator visits from non-native plants that have invaded the coastal dunes. I tested this ‘ecological’ hypothesis by removing flowers of Cakile maritima and Carpobrotus spp. from three experimental plots on San Nicolas Island. A second possible limitation on seed set is low diversity of genets within subpopulations, which could lead to scarcity of compatible mates. I tested this ‘genetic’ hypothesis by assigning ramets to clones using isozymes, and by relating clonal diversity within populations to seed set. Removal of non-native plants had no detectable effect on pollination service to D. maritima or on seed set, and seed set was unrelated to natural variation in pollination service among populations within a single year. In contrast, clonal diversity within a 10 m² patch was a strong predictor of seed set. Hence a genetic factor explains spatial variation in seed set on San Nicolas Island. On larger spatial and temporal scales, however, pollination service also affects patterns of seed set: a shift in pollination from flies in 1998 to bees in 1999 probably caused a corresponding increase in seed set across San Nicolas Island, while extremely low seed set at another site (San Miguel Island) is probably caused by a virtual absence of pollinators there.     

Extirpation and reintroduction of fishers (Martes pennanti) in Oregon: implications for their conservation in the Pacific states

Prior to extensive European settlement, the fisher (Martes pennanti) occupied most coniferous forest habitats in Washington, Oregon, and California. Human activities since that time have resulted in the apparent extirpation of fishers throughout much of their historical range in the Pacific states. Fisher extirpations in California and Washington have been documented previously, but no comprehensive assessments of the distribution of fishers in Oregon, the history of their translocation into Oregon, or the conservation of fishers in the Pacific states have been conducted. Our objectives are to (1) review historical information on potential causes for fisher population losses in Oregon, (2) document the history of their translocation into Oregon, (3) describe the distribution of fishers in Oregon relative to those translocations and determine if any were successful, and (4) discuss the implications of our findings for the conservation of fishers in the Pacific states. Our results show that extant populations of fishers in Oregon are restricted to two disjunct and genetically isolated populations in the southwestern portion of the state: one in the southern Cascade Range and one in the northern Siskiyou Mountains. In addition, historical changes in the distribution of fisher occurrence records in Oregon and geographic variation in the genetic composition and size of fishers occurring in southwestern Oregon, show that the population in the southern Cascade Range is reintroduced and is descended from fishers that were translocated to Oregon from British Columbia and Minnesota. The loss of fisher populations from central and northern Oregon and throughout Washington has resulted in the isolation of extant populations in Oregon by >650 km from those occurring in southern British Columbia. Our results demonstrate that the historical continuity in fisher distribution that once provided for genetic interchange among fisher populations in the Pacific states no longer exists.     

Relationship between population size and genetic diversity in endangered populations of the European bullhead (Cottus gobio): implications for conservation

This study investigated the relationship between the current size of endangered bullhead (Cottus gobio) populations and microsatellite genetic variability. Additionally, the microsatellite data were used to evaluate whether a genetic test for population bottlenecks was able to provide evidence of recent severe population declines. Finally, our results were used to develop conservation priorities and measures. Population size appears to be a crucial parameter in determining the amount of genetic diversity that can be preserved in bullheads, since a significant positive correlation was observed between both variables. Furthermore, in some populations we were able to detect genetic signatures of the documented decline in population size. We suggest that the most immediate goal for bullhead conservation should be to increase the size and the range of the populations, and in doing so minimise or even reverse further genetic erosion. Potential management actions like habitat quality improvement, reduction of river fragmentation and supplementation programmes (translocation, supportive breeding) are discussed.     

Proportion of individuals with anti-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis skin bacteria is associated with population persistence in the frog Rana muscosa

The emergence of the infectious disease chytridiomycosis is a major factor responsible for amphibian extinctions in pristine habitats. However, some populations coexist with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the agent of chytridiomycosis, and others go extinct when Bd arrives. Variation of pathogen severity among populations may be explained by differences of antimicrobial skin peptides and anti-Bd skin bacteria. Previous work showed that a population of the frog Rana sierrae had a high proportion of individuals with at least one species of cultured anti-Bd skin bacteria and was coexisting with Bd for more than 6 years. A population of the closely related sister species Rana muscosa had a significantly lower proportion of individuals with anti-Bd bacteria, and the following year, it went extinct due to Bd. We extended previous work to include another sampling of the R. sierrae population coexisting with Bd and found that, although the anti-Bd bacterial community somewhat differed, both populations had a high proportion of individuals with antifungal bacteria. We also included a population of R. muscosa that was naïve of Bd and predicted to go extinct once Bd emerged since that was the fate of neighboring populations. However, the naïve R. muscosa population had a high proportion of antifungal bacteria, which suggested that the population might survive if Bd emerged. Two years later, the population was surviving with Bd endemic. Variation in the proportion of individuals with anti-Bd skin bacteria appears to explain why some populations persist when Bd emerges in a population.