Integrating occupancy modeling and interview data for corridor identification: A case study for jaguars in Nicaragua

Corridors are critical elements in the long-term conservation of wide-ranging species like the jaguar (Panthera onca). Jaguar corridors across the range of the species were initially identified using a GIS-based least-cost corridor model. However, due to inherent errors in remotely sensed data and model uncertainties, these corridors warrant field verification before conservation efforts can begin. We developed a novel corridor assessment protocol based on interview data and site occupancy modeling. We divided our pilot study area, in southeastern Nicaragua, into 71, 6 × 6 km sampling units and conducted 160 structured interviews with local residents. Interviews were designed to collect data on jaguar and seven prey species so that detection/non-detection matrices could be constructed for each sampling unit. Jaguars were reportedly detected in 57% of the sampling units and had a detection probability of 28%. With the exception of white-lipped peccary, prey species were reportedly detected in 82–100% of the sampling units. Though the use of interview data may violate some assumptions of the occupancy modeling approach for determining ‘proportion of area occupied’, we countered these shortcomings through study design and interpreting the occupancy parameter, psi, as ‘probability of habitat used’. Probability of habitat use was modeled for each target species using single state or multistate models. A combination of the estimated probabilities of habitat use for jaguar and prey was selected to identify the final jaguar corridor. This protocol provides an efficient field methodology for identifying corridors for easily-identifiable species, across large study areas comprised of unprotected, private lands.     

Monitoring distributions using call surveys: estimating site occupancy, detection probabilities and inferring absence

Monitoring programs serve to track changes in the distribution and abundance of species. A major problem with most monitoring programs is that species detection is imperfect and some populations are inevitably missed. Therefore, in most monitoring programs the true distribution of a species will be underestimated. Here, we report a field test of the reliability and performance of a commonly used method to monitor the distribution of amphibians (anuran call surveys). We surveyed the distribution of four anuran species in western Switzerland, and estimated detection probabilities to account for imperfect species detection and used these estimates to adjust our estimate of site occupancy (i.e., distribution). Next, we assessed how detection probabilities were affected by weather and how site occupancy was affected by site specific covariates. For one species (Hyla arborea), call surveys proved efficient in determining the regional distribution with only few site visits because detection probabilities were relatively high. The call surveys apparently missed many populations of another common species (Bufo calamita) because detection probabilities were lower. Two other species (Bombina variegata and Alytes obstetricans) were uncommon and strong inference from the analysis is not possible. Thus, multispecies surveys may be inefficient for rare species. Estimates of detection probabilities were used to calculate how many site visits are necessary to infer the absence of a species with some predetermined statistical certainty. The implications of “false absences” are important in ecology as they are known to bias usual habitat suitability models and overestimate extinction/colonization events in metapopulations. Large-scale monitoring programs would benefit from the application of an estimation-based approach to monitoring the distribution of species.     

Effects of fire on spotted owl site occupancy in a late-successional forest

The spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) is a late-successional forest dependent species that is sensitive to forest management practices throughout its range. An increase in the frequency and spatial extent of stand-replacing fires in western North America has prompted concern for the persistence of spotted owls and other sensitive late-successional forest associated species. However, there is sparse information on the effects of fire on spotted owls to guide conservation policies. In 2004–2005, we surveyed for California spotted owls during the breeding season at 32 random sites (16 burned, 16 unburned) throughout late-successional montane forest in Yosemite National Park, California. Our burned areas burned at all severities, but predominately involved low to moderate fire severity. Based on an information theoretic approach, spotted owl detection and occupancy rates were similar between burned and unburned sites. Nest and roost site occupancy was best explained by a model that combined total tree basal area (positive effect) with cover by coarse woody debris (negative effect). The density estimates of California spotted owl pairs were similar in burned and unburned forests, and the overall mean density estimate for Yosemite was higher than previously reported for montane forests. Our results indicate that low to moderate severity fires, historically common within montane forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, maintain habitat characteristics essential for spotted owl site occupancy. These results suggest that managed fires that emulate the historic fire regime of these forests may maintain spotted owl habitat and protect this species from the effects of future catastrophic fires.     

Regional scale effects of human density and forest disturbance on large-bodied vertebrates throughout the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico

The occupancy probability of 35 large-bodied bird and mammal species was examined in relation to patch- and landscape-scale habitat and disturbance variables in 147 forest patches distributed throughout the Mexican Yucatán Peninsula. Occupancy was assessed on the basis of interviews with local informants. The most important predictors of vertebrate species richness, composition, and patch occupancy were human population density and the extent and quality of forest cover. Most forest species responded positively to forest extent, while felids in particular were sensitive to human population density. However, the effects of human density on patch occupancy operated at extremely local scales. Effects were stronger at a smaller grain size, offering optimistic prospects for conservation strategies that incorporate human population effects. Three arboreal frugivores (Ateles geoffroyi, Alouatta pigra, and Ramphastos sulfuratus) were strongly associated with total basal area of trees bearing fleshy fruits. The degree of hunting pressure was not related to human population density, and affected the occupancy probability of three game species, two of which (Mazama spp., Crax rubra) are among the most preferred prey across the Yucatán Peninsula. Levels of patch occupancy across this region varied considerably among species, and were best explained by body size and degree of forest habitat specificity, large-bodied species and habitat specialists being the most vulnerable. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the conservation potential of large vertebrates in Mesoamerica and identifies disturbance-sensitive species. This can inform regional-scale conservation planning at a time when low deforestation in parts of the Yucatán Peninsula still provides a narrow window of conservation opportunity given the rapid human population growth.     

Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a fisher probability of occurrence model. The fisher occurrence model was selected from a family of generalized additive models (GAM) generated using numerous environmental variables and fisher detection–nondetection data collected at 228 survey arrays sampled repeatedly during 2002–2006. The selected GAM accounted for 69% of the Akaike weight using total above-ground biomass of trees, latitude-adjusted elevation, and annual precipitation averaged over a 5 km² moving window. We estimated equilibrium population sizes (or carrying capacities) within currently occupied areas, and identified likely population source, sink, and expansion areas, by simulating population processes for 20 years using different demographic rates, dispersal distances, and territory sizes. The population model assumed that demographic parameters of fishers scale in proportion to habitat quality as indexed by the calculated probability of fisher occurrence. Based on the most defensible range of parameter values, we estimate fisher carrying capacity at ∼125–250 adults in currently occupied areas. Population expansion into potential habitat in and north of Yosemite National Park has potential to increase population size, but this potential for expansion is predicted to be highly sensitive to mortality rates, which may be elevated in the northern portion of the occupied range by human influences, including roadkill and diseases carried by domestic cats and dogs.     

Surface soil hydraulic properties in four soil series under different land uses and their temporal changes

The concepts of “genoform” and “phenoform” distinguish the genetically-defined soil series and the variation of soil properties resulted from different land uses and management practices. With the repeated field measurements over time, we attempted to understand the difference of soil hydraulic properties among different land uses for a given soil series, and their temporal dynamics. Four soil series (Glenelg, Hagerstown, Joanna, and Morrison) in Pennsylvania with contrasting textures, structures, and parent materials were investigated. Within each soil series, four common land uses (woodland, cropland, pasture, and urban) were examined. At each site of soil series–land use combination, field-saturated and near-saturated hydraulic conductivities, K(ψ), were measured at the soil surface using standard tension infiltrometers at water supply potentials (ψ) of − 0.12, − .06, − 0.03, − 0.02, − 0.01, and 0 m. Surface infiltration measurements were repeated at each site in May and October from 2004 to 2006. The analysis of variance indicated that the measurement time (May or October) had the greatest impact on all measured hydraulic conductivities (p < 0.001), followed by the land use (p < 0.05 for K_ψ = 0 and K_{ψ = − 0.06}) and soil series (p < 0.06 for K_{ψ = − 0.01} to K_{ψ = − 0.03}). The interactions between the time and land use and between the soil series and land use were statistically significant for K_ψ = 0 and K_{ψ = − 0.01.} When separated by the measurement time, land use showed greater impacts in October than in May, while soil series had greater impacts in May than in October. Among the four land uses, woodland showed less obvious temporal change compared to the other three land uses because of less human-induced impacts and more consistent ground cover. Other three land uses generally showed a higher hydraulic conductivity in May than in October due to the drier initial soil moisture condition and related management practices in the spring that gave rise to more significant macropore flow. The results suggested that the initial soil moisture is an important variable that drives the temporal variation of the surface soil hydraulic properties.     

An integrated analysis into the causes of ungulate mortality in the Wanda Mountains (Heilongjiang Province, China) and an evaluation of habitat quality

As part of our ungulate population protection program, the specific causes of ungulate mortality were examined and the effect of single habitat on habitat selection by ungulate analyzed. An integrated occurrence–mortality model for three ungulate species (wild boar Sus scrofa L., red deer Cervus elaphus L. and roe deer Capreolus capreolus Pallas) within the Wanda Mountains of Heilongjiang Province, China was then created. Results showed that steel cable snares and poison, used to kill ungulates, were the primary threats to survival of wild boar (40.07% poison, 27.79% cable snares), red deer (51.35% poison, 40.54% cable snares) and roe deer (29.31% poison, 56.90% cable snares). Furthermore, we found evidence that aspect, slope, elevation and forest type are important factors in determining ungulate habitat preference. The integrated occurrence–mortality model indicated that 46.39% of suitable habitat was associated with mortality risk. This model correctly classified 8.06% (297.49 km²) of the study area as unsuitable habitat, 5.43% (200.44 km²) as first attractive sink-like habitat, 32.76% (1209.85 km²) as second attractive sink-like habitat, 8.20% (302.77 km²) as third attractive sink-like habitat, and 8.91% (329.00 km²), 30.53% (1127.22 km²) and 6.11% (225.29 km²) as first, second and third source-like habitats, respectively. The results indicate that source-like habitats should be preserved to prevent habitat loss and degradation, while attractive sink-like habitats should be managed effectively to mitigate mortality risks. In particular, the various authorities need to be more proactive (increase patrolling, thereby providing employment, educational opportunities and increasing income) to reduce human-caused ungulate mortality.     

Using occupancy estimation to assess the effectiveness of a regional multiple-species conservation plan: Bats in the Pacific Northwest

Regional conservation plans are increasingly used to plan for and protect biodiversity at large spatial scales however the means of quantitatively evaluating their effectiveness are rarely specified. Multiple-species approaches, particular those which employ site-occupancy estimation, have been proposed as robust and efficient alternatives for assessing the status of wildlife populations over large spatial scales, but implemented examples are few. I used bats as a model to evaluate design considerations for the use of occupancy estimation to assess population status and habitat associations for eight species of bats covered under a regional conservation plan. Bats were one of the groups expected to benefit from a system of reserves for species associated with late-successional/old-growth (LSOG) habitat designated under the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP). This study produced the first estimates for probabilities of occupancy and detection for bats at a regional scale. Overall probabilities of occupancy ranged from 0.586 to 0.783 and probabilities of detection ranged from 0.239 to 0.532 among the eight species modeled. Although point estimates of occupancy suggested association with NWFP habitat categories for some species, estimate precision was low. Models that assumed constant occupancy with respect to reserve- and LSOG-status were supported for most species. I used model-averaged estimates of occupancy and detection for each species to estimate survey effort necessary to meet precision targets. Occupancy estimation was best suited to species with the highest detection probabilities. Species that are rare or difficult to detect will require enhancement in survey methods or more intensive survey effort to produce meaningful estimates. Optimizing monitoring efforts to address multiple species requires tradeoffs among survey methods, levels of effort, and acceptable levels of precision.     

Estimation of detection probability in aerial surveys of antarctic pack-ice seals

We use line transect detection functions together with generalized linear and additive models to estimate detection probability when detection on the line (“g(0)”) may not be certain. The methods provide a flexible way of modeling detection probability for independent observer surveys, and for investigating the effects of explanatory variables. Analysis of data from an aerial survey of pack-ice seals produced g(0) estimates substantially below 1 for some observers (it varied from 0.80 to 0.98), demonstrated a fairly complex dependence of detection probability on covariates, and showed negative correlation between observers’ search width and their g(0). In addition to illustrating the utility of generalized additive models for capturing the effect of covariates on detection probability, the analysis suggests that detection functions may be sufficiently variable that use of g(0) correction factors obtained from other surveys would be inadvisable. We recommend that estimation of g(0) be considered for all aerial surveys; if g(0) is found to be very close to 1, estimation from subsequent surveys under the assumption that it is 1 may be reasonable, but without any estimation of g(0), the assumption that it is 1 is a matter of faith.     

Predicting potential habitat and population size for reintroduction of the Far Eastern leopards in the Russian Far East

The Far Eastern Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis; Schlegel, 1857) is perhaps the world’s most endangered large felid subspecies occurring in a single population of ?30 adults, and faces immediate risk of extinction unless additional populations can be established within its historical range in the Russian Far East. We used locations of leopard tracks (and their ungulate prey) collected from snow track surveys from 1997 to 2007 to develop resource selection functions (RSF) to identify potential habitat for reintroduction. We compared models that include prey versus those based on landscape covariates, and also included covariates related to human-induced mortality. To estimate potential population size, we used a habitat-based population estimate based on the ratio of population size and RSF value of occupied range. Far Eastern leopards selected for areas with high ungulate density, lower-elevation Korean pine forests on southwest facing slopes, and in areas far from human activity. Using this RSF model, we identified a total of 10,648 km² in eight patches >500 km² of potential Far Eastern leopard habitat that could harbor a potential population of 105.3 (57.9–147.2) adults. In combination with the existing population, successful reintroductions could result in a total of 139.2 (76.5–194.6) adult leopards, a 3–4-fold increase in population size. Our habitat models assist the reintroduction planning process by identifying factors that predict presence and potential suitable habitat. Identifying the highest quality, most connected patches, in combination with appropriate selection and training of released animals, is recommended for successfully reintroducing Far Eastern leopards, and potentially other endangered carnivores into the wild.     

Application of two methods to determine hydraulic conductivity with disc permeameters on sloping land

The purpose of the present study was to compare two methods for estimating the hydraulic conductivity near saturation with disc permeameters, and to identify their merits when studying runoff on sloping land. The soil's hydraulic conductivity (K) was measured with disc permeameters at a sequence of nominal pressures (ψ) in three blocks with average slope gradients of 11.0% (two occasions), 21.5% (two occasions) and 29.3% (one occasion), respectively, within a sloping area, 40 m wide and 100 m long. Two different methods were used. In the first, the split‐location method, the permeameter was moved to an adjacent spot after measurement at each applied ψ. The estimate of K(ψ) was based on measured sorptivity, steady‐state volumetric flow, initial volumetric water content and the volumetric water content at the applied ψ. In the second method, the one‐location method, the permeameter was not moved during the measurements at each sequence of applied ψ and the estimate of K(ψ) was based only on steady‐state volumetric flow and piece‐wise application of the exponential relation between K and ψ. The latter method generally gave smaller estimates of K than the former on the gentle slopes. These differences were smaller or negligible on steeper slopes. The slope gradient and the conditions in the uppermost soil layers had a definite influence on the values of K obtained. The one‐location method is recommended in studies in which disturbance of the soil surface must be kept to a minimum, as is the case in experimental plots.     

Thresholds in selection of breeding habitat by the Eurasian treecreeper (Certhia familiaris)

Assessment of habitat thresholds is a topical issue in ecology, both from theoretical and applied perspectives. We examined how forest structure influences selection of breeding habitat in the Eurasian treecreeper (Certhia familiaris). It is an old-growth forest passerine, which can be considered an umbrella species. Habitat selection data, covering five breeding seasons, were collected from a study area across three spatial scales: (a) territory core scale (a radius of 30 m), (b) territory scale (a radius of 200 m) and (c) large scale (a radius of 500 m). Logistic regression analyses revealed that the radii of 30 and 200 m from the nest were the most important spatial scales for the forest patch occupancy. A loss of forest habitat and a low circumference of stems within the territory decreased the probability of occupancy. There was a distinct threshold in the amount of forest cover on forest patch occupancy when the volume of timber was taken into account. At low timber volumes (0-151 m³/ha) the amount of forest cover was negatively related to the occupancy rate of forest patches. This negative relationship changed abruptly when the volume of timber exceeded 152 m³/ha, after which forest cover had a positive effect on the occupancy rate of forest patches. This is a new way to examine habitat thresholds in relation to forest cover. Furthermore, as debated in recent literature, treecreepers also tend to respond to habitat loss rather than to changes in habitat configuration, which stresses the need for habitat restoration and conservation. Moreover, our results emphasize the importance of within-territory structure over the characteristics of the habitat matrix in selection of breeding habitat.     

Probable consequences of high female mortality for speckled warblers living in habitat remnants

The effects of habitat fragmentation on the Australian avifauna have been widespread with species richness and abundance declining with reduced remnant size and habitat quality and increased habitat isolation. The speckled warbler, Chthonicola sagittata is one species from the highly fragmented temperate woodlands of eastern Australia that has declined across its range and populations that remain appear to be patchily distributed in habitat remnants. Specific causes of decline are unknown but several aspects of its biology make the species particularly vulnerable to decline in fragmented landscapes. Here, we analyse survey data (presence/absence) of speckled warblers in a large sample of habitat remnants from three regions to identify patterns of occupancy. We explore the effects of patch size on extinction risk using population viability analyses (PVA) and detailed demographic data from a behavioural study of individuals in the Australian Capital Territory, south-eastern Australia. Patch size was a strong predictor of the persistence of speckled warblers in habitat remnants. High density populations had higher probabilities of persisting, and inclusion of an Allee effect during drought decreased the probability of persistence. In the absence of an Allee effect, only high density populations in patches greater than 300 ha and low density populations in patches greater than700 ha had more than an 80% probability of persisting over 100 years. The accelerating decrease in population persistence below approximately 200-400 ha suggests that small populations were particularly vulnerable to stochastic demographic and environmental events. Adult female mortality was the single most important factor in driving population extinction. Our PVA model predictions matched the survey data for the Australian Capital Territory region remarkably well, but failed to predict occupancy rates in remnants in other regions. Differences in occupancy patterns between regions may, however, have resulted from inbreeding depression. This study demonstrates both the strengths and limitations of PVA analysis. PVA can predict occupancy patterns with reasonable accuracy, given good demographic data, but data for one region cannot be used universally for all regions. We highlight the need for studies of demography in different regions to interpret regional patterns of occupancy and to identify mechanisms of decline in remnant habitat.     

Influence of connectivity, habitat quality and invasive species on egg and larval distributions and local abundance of crucian carp in Japanese agricultural landscapes

The quality of habitat at and around a spawning site, and the availability of movement between spawning and nonspawning habitats are likely to be important determinants for population persistence in a degraded and fragmented landscape. We assessed the influence of habitat connectivity, habitat quality and invasive species for distributions and local abundance of eggs and larvae of crucian carp (Crassius auratus complex, which is listed as “data deficient” on the Japanese Red List) in agricultural landscapes surrounding Lake Mikata, Japan, where drainage ditches and paddy fields are extensively utilised for spawning (lake or river shores are also used). We investigated the presence and abundance of eggs and larvae of crucian carp and habitat components at 146 sites across a range of presumed spawning habitats. Egg presence was affected strongly by connectivity to the lake (watercourse distance from the lake), and egg abundance was significantly influenced by both connectivity and habitat quality. In contrast, larval presence was primarily related to habitat quality. Larval abundance was influenced by connectivity and habitat quality, but the effect of connectivity was relatively low. Furthermore, larval abundance was negatively related to the presence of the invasive species red swamp crayfish (Procambarus craki) and bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana). Our findings indicate that connectivity, habitat quality and the presences of invasive species are crucial in determining suitable spawning and nursery habitats, but their relative importance may vary depending on egg and larval life stages. We suggest that restoring connectivity, improving habitat quality and removal of invasive species could be effective conservation strategies for the declining populations of crucian carp in agricultural landscapes.     

Improving density estimates for elusive carnivores: Accounting for sex-specific detection and movements using spatial capture–recapture models for jaguars in central Brazil

Owing to habitat conversion and conflict with humans, many carnivores are of conservation concern. Because of their elusive nature, camera trapping is a standard tool for studying carnivores. In many vertebrates, sex-specific differences in movements – and therefore detection by cameras – are likely. We used camera trapping data and spatially explicit sex-specific capture–recapture models to estimate jaguar density in Emas National Park in the central Brazilian Cerrado grassland, an ecological hotspot of international importance. Our spatially explicit model considered differences in movements and trap encounter rate between genders and the location of camera traps (on/off road). We compared results with estimates from a sex-specific non-spatial capture–recapture model. The spatial model estimated a density of 0.29 jaguars 100 km⁻² and showed that males moved larger distances and had higher trap encounter rates than females. Encounter rates with off-road traps were one tenth of those for on-road traps. In the non-spatial model, males had a higher capture probability than females; density was estimated at 0.62 individuals 100 km⁻². The non-spatial model likely overestimated density because it did not adequately account for animal movements. The spatial model probably underestimated density because it assumed a uniform distribution of jaguars within and outside the reserve. Overall, the spatial model is preferable because it explicitly considers animal movements and allows incorporating site-specific and individual covariates. With both methods, jaguar density was lower than reported from most other study sites. For rare species such as grassland jaguars, spatially explicit capture–recapture models present an important advance for informed conservation planning.     

Inferring habitat-suitability areas with ecological modelling techniques and GIS: A contribution to assess the conservation status of Vipera latastei

Some snakes are highly vulnerable to extinction due to several life history traits. However, the elusive behavior and secretive habits of some widespread species constrain the collection of demographic and ecological data necessary for the identification of extinction-prone species. In this scenario, the enhancement of ecological modelling techniques in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is providing researchers with robust tools to apply to such species. This study has identified the environmental factors that limit the current distribution of Vipera latastei, a species with secretive behavior, and has evaluated how human activities affect its current conservation status, identifying areas of best habitat suitability in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) indicated low marginality (0.299) and high tolerance (0.887) scores, suggesting strong tendency for the species to live in average conditions throughout the study area and to inhabit any of the environmental conditions. The analysis also revealed that this viper tends to select particular Mediterranean habitats, although topographic factors (altitude and slope) were the major environmental constraints for the Iberian distribution pattern of the species. The presence of other parapatric viper species in the north of the Iberian Peninsula (V. aspis and V. seoanei) and two human-related variables (landscape transformation and human density) also had a negative relation with the occurrence of V. latastei. All factors can explain its absence in northern Iberia and its fragmented distribution as currently is found mostly in mountains and relatively undisturbed low-altitude areas. The historical destruction and alteration of natural Mediterranean habitats and several life-history traits of the species contribute to its vulnerability to extinction. The ENFA analysis proved to be an outstanding method to evaluate the factors that limit the distribution range of secretive and widespread species such as V. latastei, updating evaluation of their conservation status.     

Interactions between climate, beaver activity, and pond occupancy by the cold-adapted mink frog in New York State, USA

Mink frogs (Rana septentrionalis) are cold-adapted, climate-sensitive amphibians occurring above the 43rd parallel in North America. We conducted repeated night call surveys at 46 ponds near the southern edge of the species’ range to collect presence/absence data and used information-theoretic models to relate pond occupancy to historical climate and habitat factors. Mink frog occurrence was strongly and positively influenced by pond size (>1.5 ha) and the presence of beavers (Castor canadensis). Presence of calling mink frogs decreased sharply at sites with historical mean July air temperatures >19.5 °C. Our results suggest that predicted changes in temperature over the next century might reduce the range of mink frogs in New York, yet we hypothesize that any such reductions could be mitigated by generation of suitable breeding habitat associated with future expansion of beaver populations.     

Population trends of brown hares in Switzerland: The role of land-use and ecological compensation areas

Over the last decades, agricultural land-use practices have been intensified throughout Europe. As a consequence of the resulting loss of habitat heterogeneity, numerous species associated with traditional farmland have undergone severe population declines. To mitigate the negative effects of intensive agriculture on farmland biodiversity, agri-environment schemes (AES) have been adopted in various European countries since the early 1990s. The effects of AES have been evaluated for different taxa, but rarely for larger mammals like the brown hare (Lepus europaeus), a characteristic species of traditional open farmland.Using spotlight counts from 58 brown hare monitoring study sites over 17 years, we analysed the effects of land-use and several agri-environment scheme options on brown hare density in the Swiss lowland. We used open-population binomial mixture models to jointly model abundance and detection probability, thereby accounting for imperfect detection of hares.Mean observed counts of brown hares in Switzerland from 1992 to 2008 suggested a slight decline followed by a recovery in arable study sites, whereas a sustained decline was apparent in grassland sites. Mean detection probability ranged widely from year to year (arable: 0.33–0.70; grassland: 0.21–0.80). When accounting for imperfect detection, a population recovery was apparent in both land-use types, although hare densities remained at low levels compared to other European countries.The amount of extensively managed hay meadows seemed to have a positive effect on brown hare abundance both in arable and grassland sites. Hedgerows were also positively related to hare density, although only in arable study sites. The amount of set-asides/wildflower strips and brown hare density were related neither in arable nor in grassland sites. This result was probably caused by the fairly low percentages of this AES option in our study sites.Habitat improvements by means of AES indicate some positive effects on brown hare populations in Switzerland, but the quantity and quality of AES must still be increased. Combined with a binomial mixture model correcting for imperfect detection, spotlight counts are an effective tool for estimating population trends, especially for large-scale and long-term surveys like the Swiss brown hare monitoring.     

Using occupancy models of forest breeding birds to prioritize conservation planning

As urban development continues to encroach on the natural and rural landscape, land-use planners struggle to identify high priority conservation areas for protection. Although knowing where urban-sensitive species may be occurring on the landscape would facilitate conservation planning, research efforts are often not sufficiently designed to make quality predictions at unknown locations. Recent advances in occupancy modeling allow for more precise estimates of occupancy by accounting for differences in detectability. We applied these techniques to produce robust estimates of habitat occupancy for a subset of forest breeding birds, a group that has been shown to be sensitive to urbanization, in a rapidly urbanizing yet biological diverse region of New York State. We found that detection probability ranged widely across species, from 0.05 to 0.8. Our models suggest that detection probability declined with increasing forest fragmentation. We also found that the probability of occupancy of forest breeding birds is negatively influenced by increasing perimeter-area ratio of forest fragments and urbanization in the surrounding habitat matrix. We capitalized on our random sampling design to produce spatially explicit models that predict high priority conservation areas across the entire region, where interior-species were most likely to occur. Finally, we use our predictive maps to demonstrate how a strict sampling design coupled with occupancy modeling can be a valuable tool for prioritizing biodiversity conservation in land-use planning.     

Artificial neural networks for predicting unsaturated soil hydraulic characteristics at different applied tensions

Direct measurement of unsaturated hydraulic parameters that are crucial inputs in any modeling of water flow or solute transport through the vadose zone is costly and time-consuming. Therefore, indirect methods like artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used to estimate these parameters. Different ANNs conditions [two training algorithms (Trainlm and Traingd), two transfer functions (Tansig and Logsig), and different combinations of the input variables sand, silt, clay, bulk density (BD), soil organic matter (SOM) and initial (?_i) and saturated (?_s) volumetric water content] were used to predict the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity, K _ψ [at six applied tensions (ψ) of 0–0.2 m] and sorptive number, α (at five ψ values of 0.03–0.2 m) that correspond to 138 soil samples from two neighboring study areas located in the Agricultural College, Shiraz University, Islamic Republic of Iran. A four-layer ANNs with three and four nodes in the hidden layers, performed the best in predicting K _ψ and α. Traingd produced the best predictions over all input variables when Tansig and Logsig transfer functions were used for K _ψ and α at different values of ψ, respectively. ‘Silt + clay + sand + BD + SOM’ was the most basic influential input variable for predictions of K _ψ and α at almost all values of ψ. The accuracy of ANNs-predicted K _ψ decreased with decreasing ψ from 0.2 to 0.1 m, followed by an increase to a ψ value of 0 m; a specific relationship was not observed for α. Therefore, ANNs can be used to predict K _ψ with greater confidence at moderate values of ψ than at lower or higher values. The normalized root mean square error, NRMSE, confirmed that ANNs predictions for K _ψ were more accurate than predictions for α. Because reliable predictions were obtained for K _ψ, and to a lesser extent for α, it is recommended that such intelligence models are used to predict these vital soil hydraulic attributes.