Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are predicted to be negatively affected by climate warming, but the timeframe and manner in which change to polar bear populations will occur remains unclear. Predictions incorporating climate change effects are necessary for proactive population management, the setting of optimal harvest quotas, and conservation status decisions. Such predictions are difficult to obtain from historic data directly because past and predicted environmental conditions differ substantially. Here, we explore how models can be used to predict polar bear population responses under climate change. We suggest the development of mechanistic models aimed at predicting reproduction and survival as a function of the environment. Such models can often be developed, parameterized, and tested under current environmental conditions. Model predictions for reproduction and survival under future conditions could then be input into demographic projection models to improve abundance predictions under climate change. We illustrate the approach using two examples. First, using an individual-based dynamic energy budget model, we estimate that 3-6% of adult males in Western Hudson Bay would die of starvation before the end of a 120 day summer fasting period but 28-48% would die if climate warming increases the fasting period to 180 days. Expected changes in survival are non-linear (sigmoid) as a function of fasting period length. Second, we use an encounter rate model to predict changes in female mating probability under sea ice area declines and declines in mate-searching efficiency due to habitat fragmentation. The model predicts that mating success will decline non-linearly if searching efficiency declines faster than habitat area, and increase non-linearly otherwise. Specifically for the Lancaster Sound population, we predict that female mating success would decline from 99% to 91% if searching efficiency declined twice as fast as sea ice area, and to 72% if searching efficiency declined four times as fast as area. Sea ice is a complex and dynamic habitat that is rapidly changing. Failure to incorporate climate change effects into population projections can result in flawed conservation assessments and management decisions.     

Large mammal population declines in Africa’s protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of global conservation efforts but their performance in maintaining populations of their key species remains poorly documented. Here, we address this gap using a new database of 583 population abundance time series for 69 species of large mammals in 78 African PAs. Population abundance time series were aggregated to form a multi-species index of overall change in population abundance. The index reveals on average a 59% decline in population abundance between 1970 and 2005. Indices for different parts of Africa demonstrate large regional differences, with southern African PAs typically maintaining their populations and western African PAs suffering the most severe declines. These results indicate that African PAs have generally failed to mitigate human-induced threats to African large mammal populations, but they also show some successes. Further development of our index could help to measure future progress towards post-2010 targets for reducing biodiversity loss.     

Relationship between population size and genetic diversity in endangered populations of the European bullhead (Cottus gobio): implications for conservation

This study investigated the relationship between the current size of endangered bullhead (Cottus gobio) populations and microsatellite genetic variability. Additionally, the microsatellite data were used to evaluate whether a genetic test for population bottlenecks was able to provide evidence of recent severe population declines. Finally, our results were used to develop conservation priorities and measures. Population size appears to be a crucial parameter in determining the amount of genetic diversity that can be preserved in bullheads, since a significant positive correlation was observed between both variables. Furthermore, in some populations we were able to detect genetic signatures of the documented decline in population size. We suggest that the most immediate goal for bullhead conservation should be to increase the size and the range of the populations, and in doing so minimise or even reverse further genetic erosion. Potential management actions like habitat quality improvement, reduction of river fragmentation and supplementation programmes (translocation, supportive breeding) are discussed.     

The re-expansion and improving status of the silver-spotted skipper butterfly (Hesperia comma) in Britain: a metapopulation success story

Many specialist species are declining as a result of habitat loss and fragmentation, such that conservation actions typically aim to stem rates of decline rather than bring about genuine recovery. Here, we document the recovery of a species from former population refuges. An extensive survey of the entire British range of Hesperia comma, conducted in 2000, recorded over three times the number of tetrads (2 km × 2 km grid squares) occupied in 1982. This was accompanied by a fourfold increase in the number of populations and a 10-fold increase in the habitat area occupied. The improving status of H. comma is the product of good habitat management, recovering rabbit populations and climate warming, which have improved the quality, and increased the availability, of suitable habitat. This has enabled remnant metapopulations to expand, via distance-dependent colonisation, through large networks of habitat. Metapopulation recovery in H. comma demonstrates that landscape-scale conservation can be successful.     

Increased genetic differentiation in house sparrows after a strong population decline: From panmixia towards structure in a common bird

A drastic decline in abundance prompts conservation measures, even though a species may still be common, partly because such a decline may be associated with loss of genetic variability. Longitudinal evidence (i.e. repeated measures across time) for loss of genetic diversity is scarce and mostly concerns organisms that have experienced a severe bottleneck. Here, we study the house sparrow in Finland, where a strong (50–86%) reduction in abundance occurred in four decades, starting earlier and resulting steeper decline in the south than in the north. Based on thirteen polymorphic microsatellites, we compared 12 Finnish populations both prior (mid-1980s) and after (2009) the major population decline. There was no evidence of bottlenecks and only little loss of genetic variation, but we found a significant threefold increase in genetic differentiation (F_ST) across the populations. This may reflect a non-equilibrium situation between the rates of change in the genetic diversity and differentiation and indicate future loss of genetic diversity. Our findings indicate that a strong decline in population size in a relatively common species still leaves a noticeable population-genetic imprint and warrants conservation concern.     

Population declines of a long-lived salamander: a 20+-year study of hellbenders, Cryptobranchus alleganiensis

Accurate assessment of whether long-lived species are stable or declining is challenging. Life history characteristics such as delayed maturity result in relatively slow population responses to perturbations, so data should be collected across a relatively long time span. Because differential effects on age classes can be important, studies should also examine potential changes in the population's age structure. Moreover, multiple populations should be studied to indicate whether changes are regional or are restricted to local populations. We incorporated all three factors (long duration, multiple populations, age structure data) into our study of the conservation status of a long-lived aquatic salamander, the hellbender, Cryptobranchus alleganiensis. Over the 20+ years of this study, populations of hellbenders declined by an average of about 77%. This decline was characterized by a shift in size (age) structure, with a disproportionate decrease in numbers of young individuals. The change in density and age structure was consistent for populations in five rivers and for two subspecies (C. a. alleganiensis and C. a. bishopi), indicating that the decline is not restricted to one or two local populations. For the population with the most extensive data, the decline had clearly begun by the 1980s and there was a significant decrease in body condition over the period of the study. It is not known whether population declines for hellbenders have a single cause or whether each population has experienced independent declines.     

Usefulness of volunteer data to measure the large scale decline of “common” toad populations

Measuring a species decline is pivotal to evaluate their conservation status, but an accurate assessment of demographic trends requires observations collected across broad spatial and temporal scales. Volunteers can help to collect information over large scales, but their data may be affected by heterogeneity for sampling efforts and protocols, which may influence detection probability. Ignoring this issue may conduct to misleading conclusions. Here we show that data collected by different volunteer groups can be integrated with measures of sampling efforts, to obtain information on large scale demographic trends. We collected data on 33 common toad (Bufo bufo) populations across Italy for the period 1993–2010. We used two approaches (meta-analysis; analysis of average change in population size) to evaluate the overall demographic trend. We incorporated measures of volunteer sampling efforts into analyses, to take into account changes in detection probability. Toad abundance significantly declined in the last decade. From 2000 to 2010, 70% of populations showed a strong decline, and only 10% increased. Trends were heterogeneous among populations, but taking into account sampling effort reduced heterogeneity by 40%. We detected a 76% cumulative average decline of toad populations, despite an increasing mean sampling effort. The widespread toad decline rises concern for its future, also because the causes remain unclear. Volunteer data can be extremely useful to identify large scale population trends, if information on sampling effort are recorded and used to adjust counts.     

Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds

We present the first continent-wide analysis of the population trends of European breeding birds to show that populations of Afro-Palearctic migrant birds have shown a pattern of sustained, often severe, decline. The mean trend of inter-continental migrants was significantly negative between 1970 and 1990 and non-significantly so between 1990 and 2000. Mean population trends were positively correlated between periods, suggesting little change in the trajectory of most migrant species’ populations over this 30-year period. In both periods, trends of inter-continental migrants were significantly more negative than those of short-distance migrants or residents. This negative trend appeared to be largely, although not entirely, due to declines in species wintering in dry, open habitats in Africa. Analyses of trends of 30 closely related pairs of species, one a long-distance migrant and the other not, indicated significantly more negative trends in the former, irrespective of breeding habitat. Conservation action to address these declines is required under the Convention on Migratory Species and the Pan-European Biological and Landscape Diversity Strategy, to which most European countries are signatories and which aim, respectively, to conserve migratory species and to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010. Our results indicate that more conservation action may be required outside Europe to achieve these targets. Further research is needed to assess whether the declines are caused by factors operating on the birds’ wintering grounds, breeding grounds or on migration routes, and to identify ways to reverse them.     

Life-history and ecological correlates of population change in Dutch breeding birds

Predicting relative extinction risks of animals has become a major challenge in conservation biology. Identifying life-history and ecological traits related to the decline of species helps understand what causes population decreases and sets priorities for conservation action. Here, we use Dutch breeding bird data to correlate species characteristics with national population changes. We modelled population changes between 1990 and 2005 of all 170 breeding bird species using 25 life-history, ecological and behavioural traits as explanatory variables. We used multiple regression and multi-model inference to account for intercorrelated variables, to assess the relative importance of traits that best explain interspecific differences in population trend, and to identify the environmental changes most likely responsible. We found that more breeding birds have increased than decreased in number. The most parsimonious models suggest that ground-nesting and late arrival at the breeding grounds in migratory birds are most strongly correlated with decline. Increasing populations are mainly found among herbivores, sedentary and short-distance migrants, herb- and shrub-nesting birds and large species with a small European range. Declines in ground-nesting and late arriving migrant birds suggest that agricultural intensification, eutrophication and climate change are most likely responsible for changes in Dutch breeding bird diversity. We illustrate that management strategies should primarily focus on the traits and causes responsible for the population changes, in order to be effective and sustainable.     

The ecology of extinction: population fluctuation and decline in amphibians

Even among widespread species with high reproductive potentials and significant dispersal abilities, the probability of extinctions should be correlated both with population size variance and with the extent of population isolation. To address how variation in demographic characteristics and habitat requirements may reflect on the comparative risk of species decline, I examined 617 time series of population census data derived from 89 amphibian species using the normalized estimate of the realized rate of increase, ΔN, and its variance. Amphibians are demonstrably in general decline and exhibit a great range of dispersal abilities, demographic characteristics, and population sizes. I compared species according to life-history characteristics and habitat use. Among the populations examined, census declines outnumbered increases yet the average magnitudes for both declines and increases were not demonstrably different, substantiating findings of amphibian decline. This gives no support for the idea that amphibian population sizes are dictated by regimes featuring relatively rare years of high recruitment offset by intervening years of gradual decline such that declines may outnumber increases without negative effect. For any given population size, those populations living in large streams or in ponds had significantly higher variance than did populations of completely terrestrial or other stream-dwelling amphibians. This could not be related to life-history complexity as all the stream-breeding species examined have larvae and all of the wholly terrestrial species have direct development without a larval stage. Variance in ΔN was highest amongst the smallest populations in each comparison group. Estimated local extinction rates averaged 3.1% among pond-breeding frogs, 2.2% for pond-breeding salamanders, and negligible for both stream-breeding and terrestrial direct-developing species. Recoveries slightly exceeded extinctions among European pond-breeding frogs but not among North American pond-breeding frogs. Less common species had greater negative disparities between extinctions and recoveries. Species with highly fluctuating populations and high frequencies of local extinctions living in changeable environments, such pond- and torrent-breeding amphibians, may be especially susceptible to curtailment of dispersal and restriction of habitat.     

Demonstrating decline of an iconic species under sustained indigenous harvest – The pig-nosed turtle (Carettochelys insculpta) in Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea has astonishing biological and cultural diversity which, coupled with a strong community reliance on the land and its biota for subsistence, add complexity to monitoring and conservation and in particular, the demonstration of declines in wildlife populations. Many species of concern are long-lived which provides additional challenges for conservation. We provide, for the first time, concrete evidence of a substantive decline in populations of the pig-nosed turtle (Carettochelys insculpta); an important source of protein for local communities. Our study combined matched village and market surveys separated by 30 years, trends in nesting female size, and assessment of levels and efficacy of harvest, each of which was an essential ingredient to making a definitive assessment of population trends. Opportunities for an effective response by local communities to these declines needs to consider both conservation and fisheries perspectives because local communities consider the turtle a food resource, whereas the broader global community views it as a high priority for conservation. Our study in the Kikori region is representative of harvest regimes in most rivers within the range of the species in Papua New Guinea, and provides lessons for conservation of many other wildlife species subject to harvest.     

Wildfowl population trends in Mexico, 1961-2000: a basis for conservation planning

We analysed population trends of 24 wildfowl species in Mexico. Wildfowl numbers peaked during the early 1980s; lowest counts were recorded in 1997. Total wildfowl numbers (all species combined) and duck numbers (duck species combined) showed significant short-term (1981-2000) declines, while geese (goose species combined) showed a significant long-term (1961-2000) increase. Six wildfowl species suffered significant long-term declines, while four showed increases. During 1981-2000, 11 species declined, but none had significant increases. Redhead (Aythya americana), Mexican duck (Anas diazi), northern pintail (A. acuta) and black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) should be given high conservation priority because of the high proportions of their North American populations in Mexico. Declining numbers of the later two species should trigger further investigation into the possibility of assigning them legal protection status. Other species with apparent declines in numbers should also be more closely monitored. For setting hunting limits in the country, the population status of each species should be accounted for, as well as the condition of breeding populations the previous spring. Other species with poor data or combined counts should be targeted for basic population studies. We suggest that the mid-winter counts be expanded to cover non-surveyed areas and conducted every year to more precisely detect wildfowl population change. Integrated to a site-selection analysis, the information presented here can provide the basis for a wildfowl conservation strategy in Mexico.     

Modelling hunting strategies for the conservation of wild rabbit populations

Recently, European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations have undergone a sharp decline that may be exacerbated by hunting. We investigate the effects of the timing of hunting on the conservation of wild rabbit using a model for rabbit population dynamics. Scenarios with different hunting rates and age strategies were simulated for different population qualities. We interviewed hunters to ascertain the degree to which they would accept a change in the timing of hunting. We also investigated the hunting pressure applied by hunters and its relationship with rabbit abundance. Modelling results indicate that the current hunting season has the greatest impact on rabbit abundance. Hunting in late spring optimises hunting extraction while conserving rabbit populations. When the rabbit population quality is low the effects of age strategies and the timing of hunting are less important than the effect of the hunting rate applied. Almost half the hunters would agree to policy changes. More than 75% of hunters implemented self-imposed hunting restrictions to improve rabbit populations, that were more frequently applied in high rabbit abundance areas. Therefore, changing the timing of hunting and increasing the participation of hunters in low abundance areas could optimise both the exploitation and the conservation of wild rabbit populations in southwestern Europe.     

Remaining large grasslands may not be sufficient to prevent grassland bird declines

Grassland birds are in steep decline throughout many regions of the world. In North America, even some common species have declined by >50% over the last few decades. Declines in grassland bird populations have generally been attributed to widespread agricultural conversion of grasslands; more than 80% of North American grasslands have been converted to agriculture and other land uses, for example. Remaining large grasslands should thus be especially important to the conservation of grassland birds. The Flint Hills of Kansas and Oklahoma (USA) preserves the largest intact tallgrass prairie (∼2 million ha) left in the world. The Flint Hills supports a major cattle industry, however, and therefore experiences widespread grazing and frequent burning. We assessed the regional population status of three grassland birds that are considered the core of the avian community in this region (Dickcissel, Spiza americana; Grasshopper Sparrow, Ammodramus savannarum; Eastern Meadowlark, Sturnella magna). Our approach is founded on a demographic analysis that additionally explores how to model variability in empirically derived estimates of reproductive success across a large heterogeneous landscape, which ultimately requires the translation of demographic data from local (plot) to regional scales. We found that none of these species is demographically viable at a regional scale under realistic assumptions, with estimated population declines of 3-29%/year and a likelihood of regional viability of 0-45% over the two years of study. Current land-management practices may thus be exacerbating grassland bird declines by degrading habitat in even large grassland remnants. Habitat area is thus no guarantee of population viability in landscapes managed predominantly for agricultural or livestock production.     

Constraints and reinforcement on adaptation under climate change: Selection of genetically correlated traits

Our failure to understand or predict evolutionary dynamics under climatic change precludes much conservation planning. Evolution may reduce extinction under global warming, but few studies have explored how genetic covariation, the norm for most quantitative traits, will affect the course of evolution under rapid climatic change. To draw attention to and begin to fill this gap, we draw from the population genetics literature and explore climate-driven evolution using a multi-trait model under two qualitative scenarios of climate change. Under a monotonic change in the mean environment and a change in the amplitude and frequency of a periodic environment, we show that the angle between the direction of the largest genetic covariation and the selection gradient is important in determining a population’s fitness decline, or lag load. When the environment changes monotonically in the direction of the greatest covariation, the population is able to more closely track the changing environment resulting in a lower lag load. In contrast, when the environment changes in a direction of low covariation, the ability of the population to track the changing environment is lower, and the population experiences a higher lag load. In a periodic environment, populations suffer a higher lag load under increased environmental amplitude than under increased frequency. These observations suggest that populations where the angle between the largest genetic covariation and the selection gradient is large, as well as populations experiencing an increased magnitude of environmental extremes, may be vulnerable to extinctions and genetic bottlenecks and may benefit from conservation efforts that enhance the preservation of genetic diversity. To make specific predictions of evolutionary trajectories and obtain estimates of lag loads for natural populations, climatic changes have to be quantified in terms of fitness landscapes and genetic covariation among climate-related traits must be measured. We performed an extensive review of the literature and found only 24 studies that quantify covariation in traits involving climate.     

Assessing waterbird conservation objectives: An example for the Burry Inlet, UK

We use an individual-based model to assess the conservation objectives for knot Calidris canutus L. and oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus L. on the Burry Inlet Special Protection Area (SPA), UK. Population monitoring has identified a decline in oystercatcher numbers, but cannot determine whether this is due to a decline in site quality. Long term data on cockle stocks show that the biomass of the large-sized cockles consumed by oystercatcher declined after 2004, whereas a similar decline was not observed in the smaller cockles consumed by knot. The model postdicts that during the winters of 2005/2006 to 2008/2009 the site was unable to support the number of oystercatcher present at the time it was designated (i.e. the SPA population). Large cockle biomass remained low during 2009/2010, but increases in mussel biomass meant that the model postdicted that the site could support the SPA population of oystercatcher. Knot food supplies remained high during most years, except 2008/2009 during which the model postdicted that the SPA population could not be supported. The model postdicted that the stock reserved for oystercatchers after shellfishing needed to be 2-4 times the amount consumed by the birds in order to support the bird population. We recommend that where necessary, the conservation objectives of waterbirds should be assessed using a combination of thorough population size and behaviour monitoring to identify sites with population declines, and individual-based modelling on these sites to determine whether reduction in site quality may contribute to the site-specific population decline.     

Status of the Pelecanidae

The recent history, current status and prospects in the immediate future of the seven species of the Pelecanidae are reviewed. As a consequence of pesticide poisoning, Pelecanus occidentalis suffered severe population declines in the 1950s and 1960s in portions of its range in the United States. However, since the ban on use of DDT in 1972 the species is again laying eggs of near normal thickness, reproductive success appears to be normal and populations are stable or increasing. Similarly, available data indicate that the world populations of P. rufescens, P. conspicillatus, and P. erythrorynchos remain stable, although local population fluctuations do occur. Data for P. onocrotalus show a stable population in Africa but a decline in Asia and Europe, both in numbers of birds and breeding colonies. More seriously, only very small populations of P. crispus and P. philippensis exist. Fewer than 1000 pairs of P. crispus next in 19 colonies in eastern Europe and Asia. Fewer than 1200 pairs of P. philippensis nest in four colonies in eastern/southern India and 23 colonies in Sri Lanka. The populations of both species have declined considerably in the past few decades. The causes for the declines are not documented but are thought to result from a combination of human disturbance in nesting colonies; destruction of nesting and roosting-loafing areas; declines in fish availability; and pesticide contamination. Only immediate action and concerted efforts at stabilizing the populations in the wild, in conjunction with the establishment of captive breeding populations, will preserve these two species from extinction.     

Major declines in the abundance of vultures and other scavenging raptors in and around the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya

Vulture population declines have been noted in West and Southern Africa, but have not been assessed in East Africa. Roadside transects conducted in 1976 and 1988 were compared with surveys done from 2003–2005 in and around Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Staggering declines in abundance were found for seven of eight scavenging raptors surveyed. No Egyptian vultures were seen during recent transects. We compared trends between the ungulate migration and non-migration season among three land use types (reserve, buffer, and grazed) and among the species surveyed to establish the causes of declines in scavenging raptors. Large declines during the ungulate migratory period suggest that most scavenging raptor species are declining well beyond the area of study. For all species, except Hooded vultures, substantial declines outside of the reserve indicate an important role of land use change in causing observed declines. In addition, significant declines of populations of Gyps species in the reserve itself, especially during the migration season, provide evidence that human activities occurring in other parts of the species’ range such as poisoning of carcasses may be causing their decline. Declines found in this study suggest that at a minimum African white-backed, Rüppell’s, and Hooded vultures should be relisted as Vulnerable. Management actions that limit land use change around the reserve combined with a countrywide ban on carbamate pesticides will be important for conserving keystone members of the scavenging guild. Future research should further examine possible causes of these declines and quantify the effect of reduced scavenging raptor abundance on scavenging efficiency.     

Is the Yelkouan shearwater Puffinus yelkouan threatened by low adult survival probabilities?

Many seabird species are experiencing population declines, with key factors being high adult mortality caused by fishery by-catch and predation by introduced predators on nesting islands. In the Mediterranean, both of these pressures are intensive and widespread. We studied the adult survival of an endemic Mediterranean seabird, the Yelkouan shearwater (Puffinus yelkouan), between 1969–1994 and 2007–2010 in Malta and between 2004–2010 in France using mark–recapture methods. Mean annual survival probabilities for breeding adults were below 0.9 for all colonies and periods. Between 1969–1994, annual survival for adults of unknown breeding status was on average 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.80) in Malta, possibly as a result of various human disturbances (including illegal shooting), light pollution and fisheries by-catch. Over the period 2004–2010, we found strong support for variation in adult survival probabilities between breeders and non-breeders, and islands with and without introduced predators in France. Survival probabilities for non-breeders (0.95, 0.81–1.0) appeared to be higher than for breeders (0.82, 0.70–0.94), but were imprecise partly due to low recapture probabilities. In Malta, we found evidence for heterogeneity in survival probabilities between two unknown groups (probably breeders and non-breeders), and seasonal variation in survival probability. Birds were more likely to survive the period including the peak breeding season than an equally long period during which they roam widely at sea. Although annual adult survival probability was still low (0.85, 0.58–1.0), colony protection measures appear to have reduced mortality at nesting cliffs. A population model indicated that colonies in France and Malta would currently require continuous immigration of 5–12 pairs per year to maintain stable populations. Our estimates of adult survival probabilities over the past four decades are consistent with overall population declines. Threats to Yelkouan shearwaters require immediate management actions to avoid ongoing population declines in the western Mediterranean.     

An overview of some tillage impacts on earthworm population abundance and diversity — implications for functioning in soils

Conflicting reports in the literature on the effects of tillage on earthworms are reviewed in the light of their roles in agro-ecosystem functioning. Tillage can change the abundance (by 2–9 times) as well as the composition (diversity) of earthworm populations. The actual impact is dependent on soil factors, climatic conditions and the tillage operations but hitherto this information was seldom provided in research reports. The declines in earthworm population often reported in conventionally tilled soils are associated with undesirable changes in the soil environmental conditions resulting from excessive tillage. Different species of earthworm respond differently to tillage. While the abundance of the deep burrowing species (anecic) tends to decline under tillage, particularly under deep ploughing, endogeic species can actually increase in number especially when there is increased food supply. Under conservation tillage systems, earthworms can potentially play a more important role than under conventional tillage in the functioning of the farming systems because of their abilities to modify the soil physical environment and nutrient cycling. However, adoption of conservation tillage does not automatically result in an optimal earthworm population in terms of abundance and diversity. There are opportunities to introduce more beneficial species to improve the ecological performance of agro-ecosystems. More research is needed to fully understand the ecology of different earthworm species, their interactions and their potential roles in promoting more sustainable farming systems.