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1.
A basic step toward controlling invasive species outbreaks is to predict which assemblages or habitats are most susceptible to invasion and effects of invading species on native communities. However, because predictive models may not work across a wide range of conditions it is important to examine processes associated with fish invasions across different regions. In this study, we use data from 949 sites in Oklahoma and Kansas to examine spatial patterns of species invasions in the Great Plains region of the US. Of these sites, 16 were intensively sampled between 1977 and 1994 and used to evaluate temporal patterns of species introductions. We found a trend of increasing introduced species richness without a decline in native species richness over 18 years. However, total abundance and community structure of native assemblages has changed at several of these sites during this time period. Because some of these changes occurred at sites with few or no introduced species, factors other than interactions with introduced fishes may have been responsible for this pattern. A stepwise multiple regression model that included human population size, native species richness, mean annual precipitation and drainage area explained 43% of the variation in the number of non-native species across all sites. Most introduced species in this region have native ranges within the Mississippi River basin and therefore are presumably adapted to regional environmental conditions. Great Plains streams have, to some extent, resisted invasion by introduced species; however, our analysis shows that proximity to dense human populations and importance to humans has largely structured species introductions and can partly explain spatial patterns of species invasions in this region.  相似文献   

2.
Predicting the occurrence of species is an essential part of conservation biology. The range of techniques used to do this has increased in recent years. This has included wider use of information-theoretic approaches; particularly Akaike’s information criteria (AIC). AIC is often used with regression modelling when predicting species distribution. The traditional method of model selection in regression modelling, stepwise significance testing, is also still widely used. This paper compares the two approaches, using the occurrence of the dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius) in Cumbria, UK as an example. The dormouse is a protected species whose abundance and range have declined nationally. Knowledge of its occurrence in Cumbria is required in order to increase measures for its conservation in the area. The paper uses the habitat features woodland size, altitude, soil type, tree species present, temperature and rainfall as potential predictors. As only presence data was available for dormice in Cumbria, pseudo-absences were generated to allow logistic regression modelling. The use of pseudo-absences was justified using a false record permutation test. Cross-validation allowed the ability of models to predict the data to be assessed. This was judged using ROC plots. The size of the wood, temperature and whether the soil was wet or dry were the best predictors of dormouse incidence in Cumbria. The two approaches produced different models; those from the information-theoretic approach had a better ability to fit the data. The information-theoretic approach also had the advantage of enabling model averaging and provided greater understanding of the system.  相似文献   

3.
Internationally there is political momentum to establish networks of marine protected areas for the conservation of threatened species and habitats. Practical implementation of such networks requires an understanding of the distribution of these species and habitats. Predictive modelling provides a method by which continuous distribution maps can be produced from limited sample data. This method is particularly useful in the deep sea where a number of biological communities have been identified as vulnerable ‘habitats’, including Lophelia pertusa reefs. Recent modelling efforts have focused on predicting the distribution of this species. However the species is widely distributed where as reef habitat is not. This study uses Maxent predictive modelling to investigate whether the distribution of the species acts as a suitable proxy for the reef habitat. Models of both species and habitat distribution across Hatton Bank and George Bligh Bank are constructed using multibeam bathymetry, interpreted substrate and geomorphology layers, and derived layers of bathymetric position index (BPI), rugosity, slope and aspect. Species and reef presence records were obtained from video observations. For both models performance is fair to excellent assessed using AUC and additional threshold dependant metrics. 7.17% of the study area is predicted as highly suitable for the species presence while only 0.56% is suitable for reef presence, using the sensitivity–specificity sum maximisation approach to determine the appropriate threshold. Substrate is the most important variable in the both models followed by geomorphology in the RD model and fine scale BPI in the SD model. The difference in the distributions of reef and species suggest that mapping efforts should focus on the habitat rather than the species at fine (100 m) scales.  相似文献   

4.
The Mallee Emu-wren (Stipiturus mallee) is a threatened, narrow-range passerine endemic to south-eastern Australia. To inform future conservation measures for this poorly known species, we used ecological niche factor analysis, habitat suitability modelling and distance sampling to determine landscape-scale habitat requirements and estimate the population size. Using GIS software, we integrated digital layers of ecogeographic variables with; (1) presence-only observations to derive and validate a habitat suitability model using ecological niche factor analysis, and (2) distance sampling to determine population distribution and densities across vegetation types. We detected populations in only five of seven reserves which they had occupied in 2000. We estimate the global population size to be 16,821 individuals (range 8431-39, 104), 68% greater than the previously estimated 10,000 individuals, with a single large reserve containing the majority (∼92%) of the global population. The Mallee Emu-wren is a habitat specialist, primarily occurring in mallee-Triodia vegetation that has not been burnt for at least 15 years. The highest densities were in vegetation associations containing at least a 15% cover of Triodia, however, time since the habitat was last burnt was the overriding factor in determining densities. Large-scale wildfires are a pervasive threat to the global status of the Mallee Emu-wren, and the risk to remaining populations is exacerbated by the adverse impact of prolonged drought and the potential for altered fire regimes caused by global warming. Evaluation of the global population status, and the continued wildfire threat warranted recent reclassification of the Mallee Emu-wren from Vulnerable to Endangered according to IUCN Red List categories and criteria.  相似文献   

5.
In the face of a drying climate, identification of perennial pasture species suited to low-rainfall agricultural areas is needed. Effective prioritisation of putative pasture species may be possible through the use of desktop methods that are commonly employed to investigate the effect of climate change on native plant populations or the weed risk potential of plants. Species of Cullen Medik. native to Australia may be useful as perennial pasture legumes. It is not known, however, if species have adaptations for growth in low rainfall regions like the wheatbelt of Western Australia (WA). We tested the hypothesis that some Cullen species would be adapted to the climate and soils of the low-rainfall wheatbelt of WA using an analysis of soils and climate niche models of herbarium and germplasm records of 16 perennial, herbaceous and Australian Cullen species. We identified nine Cullen species that had some likely adaptation to the climate in the wheatbelt of WA, five of which (C. australasicum, C. cinereum, C. discolor, C. patens and C. tenax) had widespread adaptation to the climate and showed some adaptation to the soils of the wheatbelt of WA, making these priorities for further evaluation as perennial pasture species. The methodology is useful to identify species with likely best adaptation to low rainfall regions, generate expectations of where these may be most successful and to identify gaps in existing germplasm collections.  相似文献   

6.
Relationships between fire history, vegetation structure and composition, and invasion by introduced plant species have received limited attention in Australian woodlands. A study in a Mediterranean, fire adapted urban Banksia woodland remnant in the biodiversity hotspot of southwest Australia investigated: (1) Have significant changes occurred in the woodland tree canopy between 1963 and 2000? (2) Do correlations exist between fire frequency and canopy cover? (3) If there is a difference in the vegetation composition of Banksia woodland invaded by the South African Ehrharta calycina (PCe) and Pelargonium capitatum (PCp) compared to largely intact remnants (GC)? and (4) Do correlations exist between vegetation condition, composition, fire frequency and invasion? Aerial photography, processed in a Geographical Information System, was used to establish fire history and changes in canopy cover over time (1963–2000). PCe and PCp sites experienced the greatest number of fires, with a net reduction in canopy cover in all areas experiencing four or more fires (60% of all woodlands). Frequent fire corresponded with a decline in native cover, richness and diversity, a shift from native to introduced species, changes in the relative importance of fire response categories, and loss of native resprouting shrub cover. Life forms of introduced species, which included no trees, shrubs and perennial sedges, contrasted strongly with those of native species, which had poor representation of annual and perennial grasses. Clear ecological and conservation consequences due to the loss of species diversity, changes in fire ecology and invasion have occurred in the Banksia woodlands. This study provides an understanding of the invasion process, enhancing conservation knowledge to improve the adaptive management of the key threatening process of invasion in biodiverse communities.  相似文献   

7.
Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species.  相似文献   

8.
Although spatial scale is important for understanding ecological processes and guiding conservation planning, studies combining a range of scales are rare. Habitat suitability modelling has been used traditionally to study broad-scale patterns of species distribution but can also be applied to address conservation needs at finer scales. We studied the ability of presence-only species distribution modelling to predict patterns of habitat selection at broad and fine spatial scales for one of the rarest mammals in the UK, the grey long-eared bat (Plecotus austriacus). Models were constructed with Maxent using broad-scale distribution data from across the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) and fine-scale radio-tracking data from bats at one colony. Fine-scale model predictions were evaluated with radio-tracking locations from bats from a distant colony, and compared with results of traditional radio-tracking data analysis methods (compositional analysis of habitat selection). Broad-scale models indicated that winter temperature, summer precipitation and land cover were the most important variables limiting the distribution of the grey long-eared bat in the UK. Fine-scale models predicted that proximity to unimproved grasslands and distance to suburban areas determine foraging habitat suitability around maternity colonies, while compositional analysis also identified unimproved grasslands as the most preferred foraging habitat type. This strong association with unimproved lowland grasslands highlights the potential importance of changes in agricultural practices in the past century for wildlife conservation. Hence, multi-scale models offer an important tool for identifying conservation requirements at the fine landscape level that can guide national-level conservation management practices.  相似文献   

9.
Plant invaders may directly or indirectly affect ecosystem resilience through their impact on soil seed banks. The invaders, and the application of control measures, change seed bank dynamics by altering the number of seeds entering and leaving the seed bank. We tested the impact of bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. rotundata), on the seed bank. We examined seed banks in heavily-invaded, sparsely-invaded and managed dunes, where bitou bush biomass had been controlled. While management of bitou bush may have reduced the density of bitou bush seeds in the soil, it did not reduce the richness of other weed species. Native tree species richness was significantly higher in seed banks of sparsely-invaded than either heavily-invaded or managed sites, perhaps indicating a permanent shift in community structure following invasion. However, remaining indices of native seed bank diversity were similar across all invasion categories, indicating that seed banks of many native species were unaffected by both invasion and management. While examination of seed banks is informative in assessing past and potential community dynamics, low similarity between the standing vegetation and seed bank at all sites indicated that many hind dune species had other storage or regeneration modes and seed banks cannot be relied upon for comprehensive dune restoration.  相似文献   

10.
Objective approaches are needed to select species for monitoring management effectiveness and to justify conservation investments. We develop and apply two approaches for selecting the most cost-effective and informative indicator species with a case study of monitoring investments in invasive predator control in south-western Australia. We compared species selected by a qualitative approach involving experts scoring 17 criteria for 12 potential indicators to a quantitative metric based on empirical data for a subset of criteria. Both approaches accounted for the monitoring cost, potential for leverage, data uncertainty and the risk of choosing an un-representative or un-informative indicator, albeit in different ways. The indicator species selected by the quantitative metric was the western brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula – a relatively common medium-sized mammal in the study region. When costs were not considered explicitly in the qualitative approach, the indicator selected was the woylie Bettongia penicillata. When costs were sensibly incorporated in the qualitative approach, indicator rankings changed and the top-ranked species was again T. vulpecula. Although when costs were included the qualitative expert-driven approach delivered the same result as the quantitative metric, it was not robust to minor data adjustments, and incorporating expert uncertainty made it difficult to distinguish the value of potential indicator species from each other. The quantitative metric was comparatively robust to minor data adjustments, and enabled evaluation of data uncertainty in a transparent way, presenting a more objective approach that enables explicit selection of the most informative indicator for monitoring management actions.  相似文献   

11.
Several modelling species distribution studies have been developed, in last years, though mainly applied in higher plants, mammals or birds. However, little is known about overlooked taxa like lichens. We have evaluated the potential distribution of eleven threatened lichens in Spain and how the Natura 2000 network contributes to protect them. To overcome difficulties related to the lack of systematic surveys in those poorly known species we used only-presence data by means of ENFA (ecological-niche factor analysis). Then, we used ENFA to model the environmental niche of each species and to obtain the habitat suitability maps. In order to test the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network, the habitat high suitability map for all species was overlapped with the network map. Our results show that all species considered present habitats requirements different from the average conditions of Spain, although clear differences exist among the species. That is, Peltigera elisabethae shows an extremely narrow niche, whereas Peltigera neckeri presents the highest ecological breadth. High temperature and long drought periods are the variables which restrict more the occurrence of these species. So, all species appear mainly confined to well-conserved forest and mountain ranges where these variables are dimmed. This mainly occurs in the oceanic northern fringe and in the higher Mediterranean mountains. In relation to the success of the Natura 2000 network, our results show that the capability of this network to protect key habitats for these species seem to be guarantied, probably because most reserves appear in mountainous areas in Spain. Evaluation of reserve network effectiveness needs the use of this type of gap analysis and especially the inclusion of ‘not charismatic’ organisms such as lichens.  相似文献   

12.
Prosopis juliflora is a drought‐tolerant fast‐growing tree species originating from South and Central America with a high invasion potential in arid and semi‐arid areas in Africa. It was introduced in Somaliland in the 1980s and is reported to have spread vigorously since. Despite being recognized as a serious issue in the country, the actual scale of the problem is unknown. In this study, we mapped the species in a study area that includes the capital, Hargeisa, using Landsat 8 satellite imagery. During a field campaign in 2015, we collected canopy‐level spectral signatures of P . juliflora and native trees to analyse the potential use of spectral data in discriminating the invasive species. P. juliflora was found to be generally distinguishable because of its greater vigour during the dry season. We tested the accuracy of the random forest classifier and different classification set‐ups, varying the spatial resolution (original 30 m vs pan‐sharpened 15 m) and image acquisition dates (during the wet season, the dry season and a combination of the two). Best overall accuracy (84%) was achieved by using pan‐sharpened data from the two seasons. About 30 years since its introduction, the invasive species was detected in 9% of the total investigated area with highest occurrence in the proximity of human settlements and along seasonal water courses. © 2016 The Authors. Land Degradation and Development published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
In the coastal region of south-western Victoria, Australia, populations of native small mammal species are restricted to patches of suitable habitat in a highly fragmented landscape. The size and spatial arrangement of these patches is likely to influence both the occupancy and richness of species at a location. Geographic Information System (GIS)-based habitat models of the species richness of native small mammals, and individual species occurrences, were developed to produce maps displaying the spatial configuration of suitable habitat. Models were generated using either generalised linear Poisson regression (for species richness) or logistic regression (for species occurrences) with species richness or presence/absence as the dependent variable and landscape variables, extracted from both GIS data layers and multi-spectral digital imagery, as the predictor variables. A multi-model inference approach based on the Akaike Information Criterion was used and the resulting model was applied in a GIS framework to extrapolate predicted richness/likelihood of occurrence across the entire area of the study. A negative association between species richness and elevation, habitat complexity and sun index indicated that richness within the study area decreases with increasing altitude, vertical vegetation structure and exposure to solar radiation. Landform characteristics were important (to varying degrees) in determining habitat occupancy for all of the species examined, while the influence of habitat complexity was important for only one of the species. Performance of all but one of the models generated using presence/absence data was high, as indicated by the area under the curve of a receiver-operating characteristic plot. The effective conservation of the small mammal species in the area of concern is likely to depend on management actions that promote the protection of the critical habitats identified in the models.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Large mammals face high risks of anthropogenic extinction owing to their larger body mass and associated life history traits. Recent worldwide mammal declines have highlighted the conservation importance of effective assessments of trends in distribution and abundance of species. Yet reliable data depicting the nature and extent of changes in population parameters is sparse, primarily due to logistical problems in covering large areas and difficulties in obtaining reliable information at large spatial scales, particularly over time. We used key informant surveys to generate detection histories for 18 species of large mammals (body mass > 2 kg) at two points in time (present and 30 years ago) in the Southern subregion of the Western Ghats global biodiversity hotspot. Multiple-season occupancy models were used to assess temporal trends in occupancy, detectability and vital rates of extinction and colonization for each species. Our results show significant declines in distribution for large carnivores, the Asian elephant and endemic ungulates and primates. There is a significant decline in detectability for 16 species, which suggests a decline in their abundance. These patterns of change in distribution and abundance repeat in our assessments of spatial variation in occupancy dynamics between the three contiguous forest complexes and two human-dominated landscapes into which the southern Western Ghats has been fragmented. Extinction rates are highest in the human-dominated landscapes. Declines in abundance for several species suggest the presence of extinction debts, which may soon be repaid with imminent range contractions and subsequent species extinctions unless immediate remedial conservation measures are taken. Detection/non-detection surveys of key informants used in an occupancy modeling framework provide potential for rapid conservation status assessments of multiple species across large spatial scales over time.  相似文献   

16.
Alien plant invaders significantly threaten native community diversity, although it is poorly understood whether invasion initiates a linear or non-linear loss of resident species. Where low abundances of an invader have little impact on native species diversity, then a threshold level may exist, above which native communities rapidly decline. Our aim was to assess the broadscale effects of an alien thicket-forming shrub, lantana (Lantana camara L.), on wet sclerophyll forest in southeastern Australia. Vascular plant species richness, abundance and composition were measured and compared along a gradient of lantana invasion. There was a strong negative non-linear relationship between native species richness and lantana cover, indicative of an impact threshold. Native species richness remained stable below 75% lantana cover, but declined rapidly above this threshold level, leading to compositional change. Thus, sparse lantana infestations had evidently little effect on the resident community, with impacts elicited at an advanced stage of invasion. The impact of lantana was pervasive, with all major structural groups (i.e. ferns, herbs, shrubs, trees and vines) exhibiting significant species losses; however, the rate of species loss was relatively greater for tree and shrub species, signalling a shift in vegetation structure from tall open forest to low, dense lantana-dominated shrubland. Potentially, broadscale conservation of species diversity could be achieved by maintaining lantana infestations below the 75% cover impact threshold at sites containing regionally common species that are also widely represented in non-invaded vegetation. This would enable targeted invader eradication at sites of high conservation value (i.e. those containing regionally rare species or endangered ecological communities).  相似文献   

17.
Exotic plant invasions may alter ecosystem carbon processes, especially when native plants are displaced by plants of a different functional group. Forb invasions into grasslands are common, yet little is known about how they impact carbon cycling. We conducted a field study over 2 years from April 2010 to March 2012 in China to examine changes in soil respiration (Rsoil) following invasion of exotic perennial forb species (Alternanthera philoxeroides or Solidago canadensis) into an annual grassland dominated by a native annual graminoid (Eragrostis pilosa). Measurements of Rsoil were taken once a week in stands of the native annual graminoidor one of the forb species using static chamber-gas chromatograph method. Aboveground litterfall of each of the three focal species was collected biweekly and litter decomposition rates were measured in a 6-month litterbag experiment. The monthly average and annual cumulative Rsoil increased following invasion by either forb species. The increasesin cumulative Rsoil were smaller with invasion of Solidago (36%) than Alternanthera(65%). Both invasive forbs were associated with higher litter quantity and quality (e.g., C:N ratio) than the native annual graminoid. Compared to the native annual graminoid, the invasive forbs Alternanthera (155%) and Solidago (361%) produced larger amountsof more rapidly decomposing litter, with the litter decay constant k being 3.8, 2.0 and 1.0 for Alternanthera, Solidago and Eragrostis, respectively. Functional groups of the invasive plants and the native plants they replacedappear to be useful predictors of directions of changes in Rsoil, but the magnitude of changes in Rsoilseems to be sensitive to variations in invader functional traits.  相似文献   

18.
The spread of invasive plant species and their impacts on plant communities have received international attention as global trade and global environmental change enhance the colonization and establishment of introduced species and threaten the integrity of native ecosystems. Because introduced species vary in their impact, studying the relationship between invasion and native communities is necessary to guide allocation of finite management resources. By studying adjacent pairs of invaded and uninvaded plots across an eastern United States forested landscape, we demonstrate Microstegium vimineum was associated with local declines in species richness and cover of native species. Negative impacts of M. vimineum on species richness did not emerge until August when M. vimineum cover and height were greatest, highlighting the value of following study subjects through the growing season. In contrast, native species cover was already lower in invaded plots early in the growing season. M. vimineum invasion was not the only important driver of species richness and community composition within the study region; abiotic environmental gradients, such as soil nitrate concentration and pH, across the six study sites were also important in affecting species richness and cover, but lessened in explanatory power through the growing season. We conclude that M. vimineum has effects on community structure that may have long-term consequences for biodiversity. Studies which track sites through time and consider multiple scales are required as invaders impact multiple biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial and temporal scales.  相似文献   

19.
Although well-studied vertebrates such as the Northern Spotted Owl (NSO) are often used as focal species in regional conservation plans, range shifts associated with climate change may compromise this role. I used the Maxent (maximum entropy) method to develop NSO distribution models from data on NSO locations, forest age, and an ensemble of climate projections. NSO presence was positively associated with the proportion of old and mature forest at two spatial scales. Winter precipitation was the most important climate variable, consistent with previous studies suggesting negative effects on survival and recruitment. Model results suggest that initial niche expansion may be followed by a contraction as climate change intensifies, but this prediction is uncertain due to variability in predicted changes in precipitation between climate projections. Although new reserves created by the US Northwest Forest Plan prioritized areas with greater biological importance for the NSO than did pre-existing reserves, the latter areas, which lie predominantly at higher elevations, increase in importance under climate change. In contrast with previous analyses of the region’s localized old-forest-associated species, vegetation rather than climate dominated NSO distribution models. Rigorous assessment of the implications of climate change for focal species requires development of dynamic vegetation models that incorporate effects of competitor species and altered disturbance regimes. The results suggest that, lacking such data, models that combine climate data with current data on habitat factors such as vegetation can inform conservation planning by providing less-biased estimates of potential range shifts than do niche models based on climate variables alone.  相似文献   

20.
Although invasive plants can have transformative effects on native plant communities, studies of the consequences of plant invasion for native fauna are generally restricted to primary consumers. Here we investigate whether an invasive shrub, Lonicera maackii, impacts native amphibians and evaluate evidence for the role of invasive plant-induced alteration of forest understory microclimate as a mechanism driving amphibian responses to L. maackii invasion. We sampled amphibian communities in forest plots with high or low density of L. maackii, and monitored microclimate (temperature and humidity at ground level) in the same forest plots. Amphibian species richness and evenness were lower in invaded plots. Invasion also resulted in shifts in amphibian species composition. Mean daily maximum temperature and mean daily temperature were lower in invaded plots, and counts of the Green frog Lithobates clamitans were marginally negatively related to mean daily temperature. Our work illustrates how an invasive ecosystem engineer may affect native organisms with which it shares no trophic connection, and suggests that changes in microclimate may be one mechanism by which alien plants affect communities where they invade.  相似文献   

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