非参数统计理论与人工智能技术在水土空间变异中的应用研究

采用非参数统计理论中的指示克立格与BP神经网络技术,以河套灌区内一典型实验区的土壤水盐预测为例,在一条采样基线上比较了指示克立格与BP神经网络技术的优劣,发现指示克立格与BP神经网络技术在一维空间的土壤水盐预测中能改进普通克立格平滑效应,具有条件模拟的仿真功能,可用于空间水盐插值与预测。     

农田大尺度表层土壤电导率的序贯高斯模拟

以内蒙古河套灌区部分农田为例,将克立格插值法和序贯高斯条件模拟法分别应用于农田大尺度下表层土壤电导率的空间分布估值和模拟,并将1次实现和多次实现取平均的条件模拟结果与克立格插值结果和实测数据进行了对比分析。结果表明:克立格法具有明显的平滑效应,它改变了电导率数据的空间结构,而条件模拟则能够在尊重实测数据情况下,再现变量的空间变化特点,而且模拟次数在2~3次时可以更好的与原始数据符合。在进行变量的空间分布研究时,可用克立格法来估计,用条件模拟来重现波动性,两者结合才能充分发挥各自的优势,为生产实践提供全面的科学根据。     

时空协克立格模型在估计缺测年径流数据中的应用

利用年径流时空上的统计特性,用时空协克立格法对缺测径流数据进行了估计。该法的有效性决定于对反应有孔穴效应年径流的变差函数的合理拟合。根据年径流系列变差函数非单调递增、具有周期波动特性,用指数函数型一维孔穴效应模型,拟合实测年径流系列的变差函数,确定出协同克立格法最优估计的参数,并估计了缺测年径流数据,取得令人满意的插值结果。     

非参数地质统计学概率估计方法比较研究

以河套灌区内一典型实验区的土壤水盐空间变异性为案例,对比分析了指示克立格、析取克立格、概率克立格风险概率计算值。结果表明,IK法与PK法具有相似的功能,而DK法则有局部细化、突出细部的特点。3种概率估计误差无明显差别。而阈值不同则概率估计误差不同。若单纯考虑提高概率估计精度,不宜选择中位数作为单阈值进行概率估计。     

降水量的空间变异性和空间插值方法的比较研究

为了比较降水量空间变异性研究的各种空间插值方法的优劣，选择无定河流域，运用逆距离加权法、趋势面拟合法、样条插值法、普通Kriging法和泛Kriging法等空间插值方法对流域的降水量进行了插值及空间场的变异分析。就普通Kriging法而言，结果显示降水量半变异函数符合一般的球状模型。把各种插值的连续空间分布与实际观察数据进行比较，结果表明：几种插值方法并无显著差异，但其中以普通Kriging法和逆距离加权法整体效果最好，尤以普通Kriging法环形模型最佳。最后分别运用上述插值方法对流域的降水量进行了空间插值并成图。     

PSO算法与DDS算法在EasyDHM模型中的参数分析及对比研究

为了提高Easy DHM模型进行水文预报的精度,选用2012-2014年汉江流域的水文数据,分别使用PSO算法和DDS算法对模型参数进行率定,重点分析两种算法参数对算法性能的影响,从而得到两种算法在Easy DHM模型上进行参数率定的最优算法参数。在此基础上比较了两种算法在最优算法参数下的模型参数率定效果,结果表明两种算法在该流域Easy DHM模型的参数率定上表现了较好的适应性。并根据对比结果给出了用Easy DHM模型进行场次洪水预报时,参数率定算法选择的建议:在要求率定效果最好情况下,预报的主要指标为洪量时建议使用DDS算法,预报的主要指标为洪峰是建议使用PSO算法;在要求率定速度尽量快的情况下,建议使用DDS算法。     

泛克立格法在研究潜水极限蒸发埋深Δ_0的空间变异性及其预测中的应用

泛克立格法在研究潜水极限蒸发埋深Δ＿０的空间变异性及其预测中的应用刘廷玺，朱仲元，王清宇（内蒙古农牧学院水利系呼和浩特０１００１８）（内蒙古哲盟水利处水资办）１前言在水文地质领域里，大多数水文及水文地质参数均可看作随空间位置而变化的随机函数一区域化变...     

基于差分模型和最小二乘法的组合预测模型在实时洪水预报中的应用

洪水预报系统因其动态性、不确定性,加大了洪水预报的难度,一直以来许多水文工作者致力于洪水预报的研究工作。最优组合预测模型具有最大信息利用原则和最小均方误差原则的特点,因而被广泛地运用在预报上。在洪水预报中,递推最小二乘算法是对洪水预报模型的参数进行校正的一种实时洪水预报方法。本文分析了最优加权组合预测模型的基本原理,提出了差分模型和衰减记忆的最小二乘递推算法的组合预测模型,并将该模型应用到实时洪水预报中。实例应用表明,所建立的预测模型具有较高精度和较好稳定性的特点,为实时洪水预报提供了一种新的途径。     

基于多元指示克立格方法的土壤盐分空间分布评价

以内蒙古河套灌区农田为例,分别运用单元指示克立格和多元指示克立格对河套灌区中游约0.8万hm2农田0~20 cm、20~40 cm深度内的土壤盐分的空间变异性进行了评价,并绘制了基于设定阈值土壤电导率概率分布图。结果表明:各层土壤盐分均不符合正态分布且存在特异值,但采用指示克立格方法可以获得较为稳健的变异函数;受结构性因素影响,各层土壤盐分的指示半方差均表现为强空间自相关性。依据综合概率分布图对土地资源利用的风险性进行了评价,对评价区域土地资源质量的决策管理提供了指导。     

距离倒数和克里克方法在土壤养分制图中的比较研究

空间插值方法以及模型参数的选择是制约插值精度的重要因素。为此,使用普通克里克、普通对数克里克和距离倒数加权方法对三峡库区王家沟小流域内的土壤养分(有机质、全氮、全磷)进行插值,研究了权重指数、邻域样本数目和变异函数模型对插值结果的影响,并用交叉验证的方法对这几种插值方法进行了比较。结果显示,距离倒数加权对于土壤有机质和全氮制图具有最高的精度,对数克里克对于全磷的模拟则是最优的。     

Optimal sampling density of hydraulic conductivity for subsurface drainage in the Nile delta

The density of hydraulic conductivity measurements is of primary importance for the design of large-scale subsurface drainage projects. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of sampling density on hydraulic conductivity estimation, and to determine the optimal sampling density using results of 3488 hydraulic conductivity tests from a 33 500 ha subsurface drainage project in the Nile Delta of Egypt. Kriging was used to obtain hydraulic conductivity point and block estimates based on the original 300 m sampling grid and on reduced sampling grids with spacings of 600, 900, and 1200 m. Kriged estimates from the complete grid were compared to those from reduced grids. The correlation coefficient between kriged estimates of block hydraulic conductivity based of the 300 m versus the 600 m measurement grid was larger than 0.90, which indicates that the optimal sampling grid spacing is in the order of 600 m. Slopes of the estimation standard deviation versus sampling density showed that the optimal sampling grid spacing was between 400 and 600 m, and could be determined from sampling grids with a spacing of 900 m or less. It appears that, for the Nile Delta, the optimal sampling density of hydraulic conductivity can be determined from a preliminary survey with a grid spacing of 900 m.     

自清洗网式过滤器水力性能试验

通过清水试验和浑水试验对自清洗网式过滤器的水力性能进行了试验研究．清水试验主要研究过滤器的局部水头损失随不同进口流量(0～230 m3／h)的变化情况．浑水试验分别对过滤器的过滤状态和排污状态进行研究:过滤状态主要研究在最大进水流量(230 m3／h)下改变不同进水含沙量时的局部水头损失变化,以及在保持相同进水含沙量(019 g／L)下改变不同进水流量时的局部水头损失变化;排污状态重点研究在不同预设压差值下最佳排污时间的变化规律．试验结果表明:对于清水过滤,进水口流量值在0～140 m3／h变化时,对应的过滤器初始局部水头损失变化缓慢;当流量在140～230 m3／h时,局部水头损失增加较快,并拟合出水头损失经验公式．对于浑水过滤,改变不同进水含沙量值,局部水头损失均在6～7 m出现拐点,之后迅速增大,确定其预设排污压差值为007 MPa;排污过程中,当排污时间达到20 s时,排污管出水含沙量趋于稳定,排污效果较好,确定其最佳排污时间段为20～30 s．     

Determination of the variation of hydraulic conductivity with depth in drained lands and the design of drainage installations

For lands drained by ditches dug to a horizontal impermeable floor, the variation of the soil's hydraulic conductivity with depth may be obtained from the relationship between water-table height and drain-outflow rate. Some relationships obtained on an experimental plot on a clay soil, drained by tile drains with gravel backfill, and on another in the same field which was mole-drained, were analysed to give the variation of hydraulic conductivity with depth by assuming that their performances approximated to that of ditches. For the tile-drained plot, the hydraulic conductivity value increased by three orders of magnitude near the bottom of the plough layer; this was reduced in a subsequent year when the field was uncultivated under grass with consequent higher water tables. The mole-drained soil was more permeable than the tile-drained soil at a lower depth, and its hydraulic conductivity at this lower depth did not change in the subsequent year when the field was uncultivated. An assumed uniform hydraulic conductivity value, calculated using drainage theory and matching at one water-table height, gave relationships between water-table height and drain outflow which did not agree with observations.A general hydraulic approach to drainage design is suggested whereby the drainage from an investigational area may be used to measure the hydraulic conductivity variation with depth and to design the correct drainage scheme for a predicted stress period of rainfall. Even if the drainage rate from an area is not measured, the water-table recession alone in an area drained by ditches may give sufficient information to design a drainage system on a rational physical basis.     

Use of a covariance variogram to investigate influence of subsurface drainage on spatial variability of soil–water properties

Knowledge of the spatial variability of soil–water properties is of primary importance for management of agricultural lands. This study was conducted to examine which spatial structure measure, the semi-variogram or the covariance variogram, is appropriate for inference of the spatial structure and performing interpolation of soil–water properties from sample data sets. Using the appropriate spatial structure measure, the spatial variability of these properties (saturated hydraulic conductivity, water table depth, groundwater salinity, and soil salinity and sodicity) as affected by subsurface drainage is also evaluated. The soil–water properties were sampled before and after the installation of subsurface drainage on a regular square grid of 500 m at 61 locations within 1470 ha in the Nile Delta of Egypt. The results showed that the covariance variogram reveals the character of spatial structure and that it is more appropriate for interpolation than the semi-variogram. Subsurface drainage has highly affected the spatial variability of soil–water properties. On average, the spatial correlation range increased by approximately 29%, whereas the ratio of structural heterogeneity to the total variation (relative structured heterogeneity) was doubled 4 years after drainage installation. Moreover, the nugget effect increased and was present for all soil–water properties with noticeably high values. Uneven spatial distributions were also observed. Further study of long-term spatial variation of soil–water properties as affected by subsurface drainage is suggested.     

Estimation of water levels in a main drainage canal in a flat low-lying agricultural area using artificial neural network models

The Chiyoda basin is located in the Saga Prefecture of the Kyushu Island, Japan, and lies next to the tidal compartment of the Chikugo River, into which excess water in the basin is drained away. This basin has a total area of approximately 1100 ha and is a typical flat and low-lying agricultural area. The estimation of the water levels at the gates and along the main drainage canal is a crucial issue that has recently been the subject of much research. At these locations farmers and managers need to control the operation of the irrigation and drainage systems during periods of cultivation. An attempt has been made to apply a feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) to model and estimate the water levels in the main drainage canal. The study indicated that the artificial neural network (ANN) could successfully model the complex relationship between rainfall and water levels in this flat and low-lying agricultural area. Input variables and the model structure were selected and optimized by trial and error, and the accuracy of the model was then evaluated by comparing the simulated water levels with the observed ones during an irrigation period in July 2007. The water levels at two locations, located upstream and downstream of a main drainage canal, were investigated by using a time series at intervals of 20, 30, and 60 min. At these intervals, rainfall and tide water levels in the Chikugo River were measured, and the backward time-step numbers of the input variables of rainfall and tide water level were searched. For the upstream location, the optimal combination yielding good agreement between the observed and estimated water levels was obtained when the interval of the time series was 60 min. The number of backward time-steps of the input variables of rainfall and tide water level were 5 and 4, respectively. In contrast to the downstream location, the optimal combination was obtained for the interval time series of 20 min with 4 backward time-steps for both the input variables of rainfall and tide water level. The present study could provide farmers and managers with a useful tool for controlling water distribution in the drainage basin, and reduce the cost of installing water level observation points at many locations in the main drainage canal.     

井灌井排区机井运行的优化调度

根据宁夏井灌（排）区机井运行费用高而效率低的实际情况,运用动态规划原理,建立了以井灌（排）区机井运行费用最小为目标的多阶段优化模型,可用于确定井灌（排）区机井运行的最优井数和经济指标,从而提高现有井灌（排）区的运行管理水平及经济效益。     

圩区农田塑料暗管埋深和间距的确定方法评述

农田塑料暗管埋深和间距的确定 ,是塑料暗管排水系统规划设计的主要任务 ,关系到排水效果和投资效益。本文介绍了农田塑料暗管埋深和间距的确定方法 ,并对之进行了评述     

基于空间数据仓库的农作物估产研究

农作物估产是我国长期以来进行的一项重要课题.为此,探讨了空间数据仓库的特征、体系结构,对现有农作物估产方法进行了评价.鉴于农作物估产的影响因素的复杂性,引入空间数据仓库技术,并且建立了多维数据模型,来进行农作物估产的研究,为农业决策部门提供参考依据.     

渗透系数的空间变异研究

用区域化变量理论和半方差函数研究测试区含水介质的渗透系数,研究结果表明含水介质的渗透系数具有空间变异性,属于中等程度变异.通过对其半方差函授进行拟合,其E-W方向的变异程度主要由含水介质本身的空间结构引起.S-N向含水介质的渗透系数其空间变异程度主要由随机性引起.     

Analytical Approximation of Subsurface Total Drainage Quantity in Non-Steady State Drainage Flow, and its Verification in Heavy Soils

The subsurface total drainagequantity is one of the most importantindicators for the drainage policy of watermanagement. The methods of estimationof the subsurface total drainage quantityunder unsteady state drainage flow maybe different in consideration of the timeduration of the process and in relation tothe type, quality and quantity of the data used.Simple analytical approximation of thesubsurface total drainage quantity, whichwas developed by the operation of asubsurface pipe drainage system insaturated soil under unsteady statedrainage flow, is viewed in this paper.Derivation of the formula for subsurfacetotal drainage quantity is based onthe subsurface flow to drains with anapproximately horizontal impervious layer,where the Dupuit's assumptions and Darcy'slaw are applied. It is assumed that duringthe drainage process there will be no rechargeto the groundwater table.This analytical approximation of thesubsurface total drainage quantity at acertain time t was formed into a singleexponential equation. The correctness andapplicability of the analyticalapproximation of the subsurface totaldrainage quantity was verified with the help ofthe field measurements on the heavy soilsof an experimental watershed area of theResearch Institute for Soil and WaterConservation (RISWC) Prague-Zbraslav, CzechRepublic. The shape and the parameters ofthis subsurface total drainage quantityequation were also proved by nonlinearregression analysis, with application of themethod of Marquardt.This analytical approximation should serveas an elementary tool of water engineeringpractice for an immediate estimation of thevalues of subsurface total drainagequantities from field pipe drainagesystems in saturated soils. It shouldalso serve as a tool with only a minimumamount of information (the basic soilhydrology data and drainage system basicdesign parameters) and its application to awide range of drainage policies ispossible.