油料储运中包装容量的最优化研究

采用概率与统计的理论,提出由"装备覆盖率"和"油料利用率"两个函数构成的指标体系作为包装容器容量选择的量化依据,给出具体计算方法,成功地解决了陆、海、空三军附属油料包装的容量最优化问题.     

An upheaval in u.s. Strategic thought

Early this year, the U.S. land-based force of nuclear missiles became vulnerable to a preemptive attack by the Soviet Union, as the Soviets deployed a large number of highly accurate warheads on their own missiles. They first demonstrated this capability in 1977. Since then, U.S. missile vulnerability has come to assume great importance in superpower relations. Western observers have portrayed the Soviet achievement as a sign of aggression, and made missile vulnerability into a symbol of declining American military strength. The government has proposed a vast military buildup of nuclear weapons, supposedly made necessary by this new threat. But the public is increasingly skeptical, and support for some form of arms control is growing. The first article in this series examines how the United States learned of the Soviet accuracy, and why it caused such great alarm. The next article will examine the Reagan Administration's response to this threat.     

A comprehensive ban on nuclear testing

Our foregoing analysis of the role of a comprehensive test ban leads us to the following conclusions. 1) A CTB by itself will have little direct effect on the arms race between the superpowers. It would not hinder their nuclear arms production and deployment nor would it necessarily present a significant obstacle to the development of new nuclear weapons systems, despite limiting the development of new nuclear warhead designs. It can hardly make a dent in the destructive capability of the superpowers or in their ability to step up the pace of the arms race. 2) The chief merits of a CTB reside in the political sphere. It would help promote detente and could help to escalate interest in arms control agreements of broader scope. But in neither of these effects would it be as significant as a successful SALT (strategic arms limitation talks) agreement. The CTB also lingers as a piece of unfinished business since the signing of the LTB in 1963. The question can be and has been raised, "If the superpowers are serious about arms control, why have they not accepted the CTB, which is simple in concept and in form and is also free of serious military risks?" Such doubts about the sincerity of the superpowers' willingness to limit their own arms development will persist as long as there is no CTB. Substantial agreement at SALT would lessen some of this effect too, but would not eliminate it completely. 3) Recent progress in seismic identification has been impressive, and other means of obtaining technical intelligence about nuclear testing have probably also improved greatly. In addition, research on the technical means of on-site inspection has demonstrated its limited effectiveness. Therefore, the role of on-site inspections as an added deterrent to cheating on a CTB has diminished substantially. This is not to say that detection and identification of all nuclear tests is possible now, or ever, but only that on-site inspection would add very little to the other technical means now available for verification. 4) It will become increasingly difficult in the United States to oppose the CTB on the basis of risks that accompany possible Soviet evasion of a treaty that does not include the right of onsite inspection. The opposition to a CTB is now likely to shift to the more direct argument that nuclear testing is important to keep pace with continuing worldwide technical and military developments. The justification for U.S. testing is only in part because of advances in Soviet nuclear technology per se. Those opposing a CTB may argue that it makes little sense, and may even be courting danger, to freeze nuclear technology alone and that banning nuclear tests should await an agreement that copes with all military research and development and all qualitative improvements in weapons systems. This directly confronts the argument that the unique virtue of a CTB is that it provides a simple and feasible first step in the very complicated problems of controlling military technology. 5) The mutual deterrence of the superpowers will not be compromised if a CTB agreement is reached and one side or the other clandestinely violates such an agreement. The state of nuclear technology in both countries is mature, and the destructive capability of their nuclear arsenals can be easily maintained. Whatever small improvements can come as a consequence of clandestine testing would hardly affect the strategic balance. 6) It seems unlikely that China and France will agree to stop testing in the near future. These countries refused to join the nonproliferation treaty, which did not affect their nuclear programs, and it is doubtful that, proceeding from military considerations alone, they would join a CTB. Their nuclear programs are still not mature, and a CTB would freeze their positions of inferiority with respect to the superpowers. There may, however, be wider political and security arrangements to induce them to participate. Cessation of tests by the other nuclear powers might serve as an inducement to China and France to refrain from testing. 7) The key near-nuclear powers, such as Japan, India, and Israel, are much more concerned with the military activities of their neighbors than they are with those of the superpowers. The modest nuclear restraints that a CTB imposes on the superpowers are hardly likely to have a direct impact on the approach of these countries to their own security. However, for these critical near-nuclear countries a CTB may be much more acceptable than the nonproliferation treaty. A CTB would not prohibit the production of fissionable material, the development of nuclear weapons technology short of testing, nor the stockpiling of untested nuclear weapons, and is therefore less restrictive. Consequently, these powers may be willing to ratify a CTB, but not the nonproliferation treaty. On the other hand, the CTB may provide them with a ready excuse for not succumbing to the pressure to ratify the nonproliferation treaty, if indeed they need excuses or would bow to such pressure. 8) A CTB is of very little added, direct significance to other nonnuclear powers who have already ratified or are about to ratify the nonproliferation treaty. It may only lessen their pique about the treaty's being highly discriminatory-the treaty imposes no restraints on the nuclear weapons programs of the nuclear powers, while the CTB restricts all parties to the agreement. 9) Peaceful nuclear explosions do not now show great promise and significance for economic development. What can be done with peaceful explosions can often be done by other means, although possibly at a slightly higher cost. On the other hand, making allowance for peaceful explosions greatly complicates a CTB. A useful approach to the problem of banning military tests but not foregoing indefinitely the use of peaceful explosions might, therefore, be to ban all nuclear explosions for a period of several years and to stipulate in the agreement that in that time there would be negotiations on how peaceful explosions may be controlled in a way that would not jeopardize the CTB.     

不同兼业化农户粮食生产效益和效率差异的影响因素研究

随着国家工业的快速发展,仍以一家一户式为主的农业生产模式,出现了产量差距大且停滞不前、生产成本增加、资源环境代价高等问题,怎样提高整体农业生产效率,增加农户的生产效益成为当下亟需研究的课题。该研究在前人研究的基础上,以河南疃镇为研究区域,从区域和非农化程度(兼业化)两个维度对农户粮食生产效益、效率差异进行分析,发现该地区兼业化农户高达82.2%,有66.7%的农户其非农业收入大于农业收入,且表现出由南向北兼业化程度加大的趋势;农户粮食生产效益、效率均受到兼业化和区域化的影响,提出当前进一步提高不同经济类型农户粮食生产效益、效率的限制因素及改进建议。     

The open society

The open society, unlike the closed society, requires constant citizen thought and action to ensure that it will continue to survive and prosper. Today in the United States we should give particular attention to three immediate problems. We should reinvigorate our national economic health and international competitiveness, particularly by reducing our unprecedented budget deficits and reforming our tax system. We must strengthen our scientific and engineering vitality, particularly in graduate engineering education and in secondary school instruction in science and mathematics. And we should work with our allies in the free industrialized world to keep our international open society as open as possible, encouraging a flow of people and information and ideas across national boundaries while instituting sensible and efficient safeguards against leakage of critical military technology to the Soviet Union.     

湖南农产品加工业发展战略研究

湖南农产品加工业产值占轻工业总产值的80％，农业和农产品加工业总产值占全省经济总产出的30％，农产品加工业创造的税收，占全省税收总额的80％，对农民收入的贡献率约20％，已成为湖南经济发展新的增长点和新兴的战略产业。但发展速度大大落后于全国和中部地区平均水平，也大大落后于本省农业的发展，存在诸多制约因素。目前湖南已处于发展农产品加工业的战略机遇期，审时度势，要有新的发展战略思路。按照中央经济工作会议提出的“大力发展循环经济”的新方针，在湖南发展农产品加工业循环经济具有更大的紧迫性和优越性，实施循环经济发展战略要树立“大循环、大农业、大加工、大产业”的新观念，建设农产品加工业产业集群，促进实现农业增值、农民增收、城乡统筹发展、全面建设小康社会的战略目标，围绕战略目标，必须采取新的战略措施。     

Economic impact and public costs of confined animal feeding operations at the parcel level of Craven County,North Carolina

Conflicts have arisen between communities and operators of confined animal feeding as farms have become bigger in order to maintain their competitiveness. These conflicts have been difficult to resolve because measuring and allocating the benefits and costs of livestock production is difficult. This papers demonstrates a policy tool for promoting compromise whereby the community gets reduced negative impacts from livestock while at the same time continues to benefit from livestock jobs, taxes, and related economic activity. Public economic benefits and public economic costs of confined animal feeding operations are estimated for every farm and affected house in Craven County, North Carolina. The results show public economic benefits of $5.7 million and public economic costs of $5.7 million and public economic costs of 2.2 million, but that the ratio of benefits to costs for individual farm-house pairs varies in important ways across the 26 hog farms in Craven County.     

椪柑“三疏一改” 和贮藏保鲜技术及其效果

针对衢县柑生产中果形偏小、品质欠佳和商品率低等问题, 经大面积推广疏株、疏大枝、疏果、增施有机肥改良土壤(三疏一改)和果品贮藏保鲜技术后表明:实施以三疏 一改 为核心的低改技术, 基地平均产量超过45 thm-2 , 特级和一级果率由实施前的30 %提高到78 %, 增加160 %, 二级和三级果明显减小;年增收0.26 万～ 1.88 万元hm-2 , 投产比达1∶4 ～ 6 。推广万利得贮藏保鲜技术, 果品保鲜时间达3 ～ 4 个月, 好果率提高3.4 %,衢县柑有95 %果品实施贮藏保鲜, 减少了损耗。推广三疏一改 和保鲜技术, 经济效益十分显著。表5 参5     

我国城镇化过程中农村劳动力及人口转移的经济行为分析

从经济理性出发,分析了我国城镇化过程中劳动力及人口转移的经济决策行为。在目前条件下,我国只有劳动力的“两栖”转移,缺乏人口的彻底转移,这是转移者对其成本效益权衡的结果。因此必须考虑降低人口彻底转移的机会成本,从而推动人口城镇化的最终实现。     

唐代明经科与进士科的位相:制度上和社会认识之间的乖离

唐代的明经科是国家为加强中央集权化而形成的科举制度中比进士科更占优势的科目,但处于当时以士人为中心的社会认识中反而不如进士科重要。这种制度和社会评价之间的拮抗过程使明经科的实质重要性渐渐下降,直至北宋中期科举制度变成进士科这一单一科目。通过对比进士科和明经科反映出的这些现象表明,在国家权力和士人在社会、文化上的力学关系中,士人所起的主体能动性作用令人瞩目。因此,有必要重新思考科举,它不仅是以国家选拔官员为主的政治制度,其中还包含着士人所主导的社会、文化性因素和影响。     

Soviet psychology and psychophysiology

Pavlov's experiments, begun long before the revolution, have always been generously supported by the Soviet state. However, their far-reaching ontological and methodological implication gained an official and commanding position to Soviet biomedical and psychosocial (as distinct from socioeconomic) sciences only in 1950 with the Resolution of the 28 June-4 July Joint Pavlovian Session of the Soviet Academy of Sciences and Academy of Medical Sciences. In the biomedical sciences, present-day Soviet Pavlovianism may best be conceived of as (i) a doctrine of nervism (a Russian term)-the ubiquity of neural control of bodily reactions (neural, neurosomatic, neurovisceral, and neurohumoral) and (ii) a doctrine of what might be called concomitantism (my term )-the ready and radical modification of these reactions by concomitant reactions; or, viewed more generally and somewhat differently, as (iii) a far-reaching physicalistic psychosomaticism or, rather, a neuroviscerosomaticism. Psychophysiology-or higher nervous activity-is the key discipline here. With scores of research institutes, it is indeed a very well-established, wide-scoped, and faradvanced faradvanced science that, in both present achievements and future capabilities, is a challenge to American and Western equivalents. On the other hand, in the psychosocial sciences and the key discipline of psychology proper, unmitigated Pavlovian physicalism and objectivism is met head on by (i) the unbending postulate of dialectical materialism of "the specific emergent efficacy of consciousness and subjective conscious categories" as well as by (ii) the simple consideration that a consistent Pavlovianism is a fully autarchic psychology and needs no other science of psychology on top of it. A large portion of current Soviet psychological theory in psychology proper is thus primarily a textual and exegetic collation and conciliation of the views of Pavlov with those of Marx, Engels, and Lenin (until recently and, to some extent even now, also of Stalin), just as most current Soviet psychological experimentation in psychology proper is primarily a duplication of what Soviet psychophysiology could do as well, if not better. Moreover, there is the longstanding drastic ban on intelligence testing, psychoanalysis, Gestalt psychology, and other to-be-shunned "bourgeois-psychological" thought-and-practice systems, so that, in all, psychology proper is a much constricted and, per se, more ancilliary than basic discipline of Soviet empirical research-a state of affairs plainly reflected in the fact that the number of its research institutes and publications (as well as the number of psychologists proper) is but a small fraction of the number in psychophysiology. Yet, in evaluating our efforts in the area vis-à-vis those of the Soviets, we must, obviously, take full account of both disciplines, Soviet psychophysiology being in all respects a psychology in American terms (60). Indeed, it is Soviet psychophysiology, and not Soviet psychology proper, that is the homolog not only of American behavioristics but also, to a large extent, of all American experimental psychology.     

人工挂巢招引白眉[姬]鹟控制森林虫害的研究

本文对在内蒙古赛罕乌拉自然保护区采用人工挂巢招引白眉［姬］翁鸟控制森林虫害的试验研究进行了总结,主要采用鸟类生态学研究中的巢区测定法测定取食范围,剖胃分析法和束颈法进行食性分析和食虫量测定,并结合样地内白眉［姬］翁鸟种群数量调查,综合分析后得出一对白眉［姬］翁鸟控制虫害面积５．８７亩,挂巢密度为３．３巢／公顷,一对白眉［姬］翁鸟及一窝雏鸟在该区停留期间共食虫８０２５８条,食落叶松叶蜂占５２％,食舞毒蛾３０．５％,采用人工招引白眉［姬］翁鸟等益鸟控制森林虫害的效果显著,经济效益、生态效益均很显著等结论     

香榧栽培经济效益分析

 采用技术经济分析方法,研究了采用2＋2和2＋5苗龄香榧Torreya grandis ‘Merrillii’嫁接苗建园,20 a一个时段的生产成本构成和各项经济指标。结果表明：香榧栽培建园成本高,投资回收期长,一般需要10 a左右,但经济效益良好,其内部收益率达15.00%。香榧15 a以后才开始进入盛果期,盛果期可达100 a以上,所以,从长远看,经济效益十分显著。香榧生产上应采用2＋5以上大苗建园,其盈亏平衡点为31.64%,预期经济效益稳定。在同样的变动率下,销售收入的变动对香榧栽培净现值的影响最大,从现实情况分析,其市场风险、自然风险、技术风险和政策风险等都是很小的。在香榧产业资金扶持政策上,应重点考虑良种大苗培育和采用良种大苗建园,同时可通过扩大小额贷款范围、延迟还贷时间等政策措施,促进香榧产业的发展。图4表3参9     

食品加工企业建立可追溯系统的成本收益分析

食品加工企业建立可追溯系统是确保食品安全的有效工具。在我国政府没有强制要求企业建立可追溯系统的情况下,企业自愿建立可追溯系统首先考虑的就是成本-收益问题。本文对我国食品加工企业建立可追溯系统的成本收益的影响因素和作用机理进行了理论分析,同时建立了食品加工企业建立可追溯系统的成本收益构成模型,为进一步研究提供依据。     

日本关东军对苏联远东“情报战”研究

日本对苏联的远东地区一直是怀有野心的，日本在占领中国东北后，对苏联展开了积极的情报搜集工作。为此，关东军制定了详细的情报搜集计划，利用各种手段进行搜集工作。大量的中国人被日军派往苏联境内搜集情报，成为日苏军事角力的牺牲品。但改变不了关东军必然失败的命运。     

Instrumental neutron activation analyses of lunar specimens

Ten Apollo 11 specimnens were divided into 24 samtples. Sodillim contents of 8 diverse specimens clluster tightly abolit 0.3 percent. Plagioclase separated from sample 10044 contains aboltt 1.09 percent Na; barium is not enriched in the plagioclase separate. Contents of the rare earths are strikingly high, and relative abtmndances resemble those of calcium-rich achondrites or abyssal basalts but are depleted in Eu by factors of 2 to 3 and in La by about 20 percent. The plagioclase separate is enriched in Eu and pyroxenes (and opaqtte minerals are Eu-depleted. Fine fractions of 10044 are abotit 20 to 40 percent richer in most rare earths (50 percent for Eu) than coarse fractions, probably becaitse of the presence of small grains in which rare earths are mnarkedly concentrated. "Microgabbro" 10045 is imnpoverished, relative to the soil, in rare eartlhs and Hf. Ratios by mass of Zr to Hf are comlparatively low. Abttndances of Mn, Co, Fe, Sc and Cr stiggest systematic differences between igneous rocks on one hanid and breccias and "soil" on the other. Fromn the Co abuindances, no more than about 3 percent of the present "soil" can consist of chondritic mleteorite conitamination.     

Controlling urban air pollution: a benefit-cost assessment

To help focus debate about the best use of society's resources, it is important to have estimates of the benefits and costs of further improvements in air quality. Such estimates are developed, with focus primarily on reductions in ground-level ozone resulting from the control of volatile organic compounds; to a lesser extent, particulate control also is considered. Proposed controls are evaluated for both the nation as a whole and for the Los Angeles metropolitan area, where violations of air quality standards are most frequent and severe. Subject to a number of uncertainties, the costs of proposed new controls are found to exceed the benefits, perhaps by a considerable margin.     

Erratum

The briefing "GAO points up military use of shuttle" (News and Comment, 14 May, p. 717) states that Defense Department missions will occupy 49 percent of the space shuttle's flights over the next 3 years. The percentage is correctly applied to total missions during the next 13 years.     

Effects of federal residential energy conservation programs

We used a detailed engineering-economic simulation model of residential energy use to evaluate the effects of nine different residential energy-use "futures." These "futures" are described in terms of annual and cumulative energy use from 1977 through 2000 by fuel, end use, and in aggregate. Outputs from the model also include economic information on the costs to households of fuels, equipment, and thermal improvements to new and existing structures. The major outputs from these nine cases are shown in Tables 1 and 2 and Figs. 6 and 7.     

Solar photovoltaic power systems: an electric utility R & d perspective

Solar photovoltaic technology is receiving increasing attention as a prospective source of bulk, electric utility power within the next 10 to 20 years. Successful development will require solar energy conversion efficiencies of about 15 percent for photovoltaic flat-plate modules, or about 25 percent for photovoltaic cells using highly concentrated sunlight. Three different cell technologies have a better than even chance of achieving these target efficiencies with costs and operating lifetimes that would allow significant use by electric utilities. The challenge for the next decade is to push photovoltaic technology to its physical limits while expanding markets and user confidence with currently available systems.