Mortality at wind-farms is positively related to large-scale distribution and aggregation in griffon vultures

Wind-farms have negative impacts on the environment, mainly through habitat destruction and bird mortality, making it urgent to design predictive tools to use in landscape planning. A frequent assumption of wind-farm assessment studies is that bird distribution and abundance and bird mortality through collision with turbines are closely related. However, previous results are contradictory and question the usefulness of these variables to select safer wind-farm locations. We focused on a species highly vulnerable to collision at wind-farms, the griffon vulture, to test whether mortality at turbines was related to the relative position of turbines within the vulture population. We used the location of all turbines on 34 wind-farms in southern Spain, details on 342 griffon vultures found dead, and the location and size of breeding colonies and roost sites of the species during the breeding and non-breeding seasons, respectively. Using variables that describe the large-scale distribution and aggregation of vultures, we found that year-round mortality at turbines increased when they were located in highly populated areas, a result that can be translated into management guidelines to plan wind-farm locations.Bird abundances can help to guide wind-farm plans at large scales. Current protocols of counting birds at specific points during particular periods of time have low predictive power. However, other more integrative cues such as the spatial distribution and aggregation of some vulnerable species should be used as criteria for large-scale environmental planning. Local inspection of the relationship between mortality at existing turbines and their relative position within the spatial distribution of bird populations can guide managers in planning future wind-farms and in managing currently operating developments.     

Conservation biology for suites of species: Demographic modeling for Pacific island kingfishers

Conservation practitioners frequently extrapolate data from single-species investigations when managing critically endangered populations. However, few researchers initiate work with the intent of making findings useful to conservation efforts for other species. We presented and explored the concept of conducting conservation-oriented research for suites of geographically separated populations with similar natural histories, resource needs, and extinction threats. An example was provided in the form of an investigation into the population demography of endangered Micronesian kingfishers (Todiramphus cinnamominus). We provided the first demographic parameter estimates for any of the 12 endangered Pacific Todiramphus species, and used results to develop a population projection matrix model for management throughout the insular Pacific. Further, we used the model for elasticity and simulation analyses with demographic values that randomly varied across ranges that might characterize congener populations. Results from elasticity and simulation analyses indicated that changes in breeding adult survival exerted the greatest magnitude of influence on population dynamics. However, changes in nestling survival were more consistently correlated with population dynamics as demographic rates were randomly altered. We concluded that conservation practitioners working with endangered Pacific kingfishers should primarily focus efforts on factors affecting nestling and breeder survival, and secondarily address fledgling juveniles and helpers. Further, we described how the generalized base model might be changed to focus on individual populations and discussed the potential application of multi-species models to other conservation situations.     

What genetics tell us about the conservation of the critically endangered Balearic Shearwater?

The Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus is one of the most critically endangered seabirds in the world. The species is endemic to the Balearic archipelago, and conservation concerns are the low number of breeding pairs, the low adult survival, and the possible hybridization with a sibling species, the morphologically smaller Yelkouan shearwater (P. yelkouan). We sampled almost the entire breeding range of the species and analyzed the genetic variation at two mitochondrial DNA regions. No genetic evidence of population decline was found. Despite the observed philopatry, we detected a weak population structure mainly due to connectivity among colonies higher than expected, but also to a Pleistocene demographic expansion. Some colonies showed a high imbalance between immigration and emigration rates, suggesting spatial heterogeneity in patch quality. Genetic evidence of maternal introgression from the sibling species was reinforced, but almost only in a peripheral colony and not followed, at least to date, by the spread of the introgressed mtDNA lineages. Morphometric differences were not correlated with mtDNA haplotypes and introgression is probably due to a secondary contact between the two species several generations ago. Overall, results suggested that the very recent demographic decline in this critically endangered species has not yet decreased its genetic variability, and connectivity found among most colonies should help to reduce species extinction risk. Spreading of introgression should be monitored, but the species is not jeopardized at the moment by genetic factors and the major conservation actions should concentrate at enhancing adult survival.     

From both sides: Dire demographic consequences of carnivorous mice and longlining for the Critically Endangered Tristan albatrosses on Gough Island

The IUCN recently uplisted the Tristan albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) to Critically Endangered. Here we present new data indicating negative population trends on Gough Island arising from low adult survival (∼91%, ascribed to accidental mortality on fishing gear) and low breeding success (averaging 32%, due to mouse predation). Fledgling production from 1979 to 2007 and numbers of incubating adults from 1956 to 2007 have both decreased by ∼1% p.a. Consecutive annual counts of incubating adults and a population model permit the first reliable estimates of the Tristan albatross population, presently 5400 breeding adults and 11,300 birds in all age- and stage-classes. Population models explore scenarios of likely demographic trends using combinations of hypothetical best-case estimates vs. observed estimates for two key parameters: adult survival and breeding success. These scenarios highlight the relative benefits to the species of eradicating mice or mitigating bycatch. The model scenario using observed estimates predicts annual growth rate at −2.85%. Adult survival rates have probably decreased in recent years, concomitant with increased longline fishing effort, which might explain the discrepancy between counts and modelled trends. Negative trends cannot be reversed by improving breeding success alone, and adult survival must exceed an improbable 97% to balance the current chick production. A worst-case scenario including a fixed number of adult deaths annually predicted a catastrophic 4.2% p.a. decrease and extinction in ∼30 years. Population growth was most sensitive to adult survival, but even using an adult survival estimate without fishery mortality, current breeding success is insufficient to maintain the population. These findings do not support the ‘compensatory mitigation of bycatch’ model (offsetting bycatch impacts by eradicating invasive species), and the impacts of both fishery mortality and mouse predation must be addressed to improve the conservation status of the Critically Endangered Tristan albatross.     

Evaluation of the extinction risk and of conservation alternatives for a very small insular population: the bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus in Corsica

The bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus is a large, long-lived osteophagus vulture whose abundance and breeding range have drastically declined during the last century, making it one of the most endangered European bird species. We evaluated the extinction risk of the bearded vulture population in Corsica (a small, isolated breeding population of 8-10 pairs), one of the last extant populations in Western Europe, and estimated its probability of extinction to be 0.165 over the next 50 years. A sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of uncertain demographic rates showed that it is critical to estimate precisely the values of pre-adult survival. Neither the type nor the parameters of density dependence acting on fecundity and survival rates influenced much the extinction risk of the Corsican population. We evaluated the effect of four realistic conservation actions that could be implemented on the Corsican bearded vulture population and rank them in terms of their respective decrease of the current extinction risk faced by this population. We found that the release of two juveniles every other year for 12 years and the increase of fecundity due to selective food provisioning would reduce by more than one-half the current extinction risk of Corsican bearded vulture population. In contrast, even substantial increases in the carrying capacity through large supplemental feeding produced very modest decreases in the extinction risk, thus calling into question the efficacy of one of the main pan-European conservation strategies for this species. Re-establishing a population network within the Mediterranean could be a potentially better strategy, though its efficacy depends on natal dispersal among populations that is currently unknown.     

Incidental and intentional catch threatens Galápagos waved albatross

As large, long-lived seabirds with delayed and slow reproduction, albatrosses have low intrinsic mortality rates and are especially vulnerable to extinction from extrinsic sources of mortality such as fishery bycatch. Leg-band recovery information for waved albatrosses revealed mortality from both incidental catch and intentional catch for human consumption. Annual adult survival in 1999-2005, estimated from capture-mark-recapture data, was lower than historical estimates. This recent increase in adult mortality probably contributed to recent and dramatic shrinkage of the breeding population; periodic matrix models confirm that population growth rate is most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Banding data and recovery information also suggest that capture by fisheries is male-biased, which should reduce fecundity in this species with obligate bi-parental care. This new documentation of bycatch, harvesting, and associated demographic consequences provides reason for serious concern about the persistence of the single breeding population of the waved albatross.     

The proportion of immature breeders as a reliable early warning signal of population decline: evidence from the Spanish imperial eagle in Doñana

Methods to evaluate population trends have recently received particular attention because of perceived declines in several species during the 20th century. We investigated whether age at first breeding could be used as an “early warning signal” to detect possible changes in population trends in long-lived species with deferred maturity using data from the Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) population in Doñana National Park (Spain). This bird of prey is an endangered species that has suffered a rapid decline in this population during the last 10 years. As a result of our 27-year monitoring (1976-2002) study, we detected that an increase in immature breeding birds occurred before population decline became evident. The proportion of immature-plumaged breeders in the population was significantly higher during the period of decline than during the period of stability. In our case, more than 10% of immature breeders can be considered as an “early warning signal” that anticipates population decline. Owing to the ignorance of this warning signal, urgent actions for the recovery of this eagle population started 10 years later than necessary, and when population size had been reduced.     

Estimating the ability of birds to sustain additional human-caused mortalities using a simple decision rule and allometric relationships

Many bird species are subject to human-caused mortality, either through direct harvest (e.g. game birds) or through incidental mortalities (e.g. fisheries-related bycatch of seabirds, impact with vehicles, wind turbines, or power lines). In order to assess the impact of additional mortalities on birds, both the number of birds killed and their ability to sustain those deaths must be estimated. Niel and Lebreton [Niel, C., Lebreton, J.-D., 2005. Using demographic invariants to detect overharvested bird populations from incomplete data. Conservation Biology 19, 826-835] applied a simple decision rule [Wade, P.R., 1998. Calculating limits to the allowable human-caused mortality of cetaceans and pinnipeds. Marine Mammal Science 14, 1-37] to estimate the level of additional human-caused mortality or potential biological removal (PBR) that can be sustained for bird species given only (1) estimates of the population size, adult survival, and age at first breeding, and (2) the current population status and management goals. We provide guidelines for appropriate use of the method and case studies comparing results from this method to other approaches. Particular focus is placed on applying the method to Procellariiformes.PBR limits may then be set without a population model and when monitoring levels are minimal, and in a computationally straightforward manner. While this approach has many advantages, there are limitations. The PBR rule was initially developed for cetaceans and pinnipeds and there have been no adaptations for the unique biology of birds which may need further consideration. Additionally, because this is a simplifying method that ignores differences in life stages, it may not be appropriate for very small populations or for those listed as ‘critically endangered’, and further work is needed for situations where mortalities have large gender or age bias.     

Female biased mortality caused by anthropogenic nest loss contributes to population decline and adult sex ratio of a meadow bird

Meadow breeding birds such as the whinchat Saxicola rubetra have been declining due to increased farming intensity. In modern grassland management, the first mowing and the bird’s breeding cycle coincide, causing high nest destruction rates and low productivity of grassland bird populations. However, it is virtually unknown whether the mowing process directly affects adult survival by accidentally killing incubating females. We studied adult survival of an Alpine whinchat population during two breeding seasons using either colour-ringing or radio-tracking of 71 adults. Assessing territories, mowing phenology and nest destruction from 1988 to 2007 allowed changes in the factors associated with female mowing mortality to be estimated. Adult survival over 5-day-periods was Φ = 0.986, but during the period of mowing female survival was strongly reduced (Φ = 0.946). As a result, 80.6% of the males, but only 68.4% of the females survived the breeding season. Mowing undoubtedly killed two of 20 radio-tagged females when they were laying or incubating. In the 20-year period, an increasing proportion of nests were destroyed before the chicks hatched and this change was associated with an increased distortion of the adult sex ratio. Modelling the population growth rate showed that including the additional effect of mowing on female mortality resulted in a 1.7 times faster local population decline. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the extinction of whinchat populations in the lowlands of central Europe was caused not only by habitat degradation and low productivity, but also by increased man-made female mortality.     

Illegal killing slows population recovery of a re-introduced raptor of high conservation concern - The red kite Milvus milvus

The re-introduction of extirpated species is a valuable conservation tool. Red kites Milvus milvus are declining over much of their European range and have been re-introduced to England and Scotland, following their extinction due to widespread human persecution during the 19th century. Considerable regional variation in population growth exists. This study aims to identify the proximate demographic and ultimate environmental constraints on red kites in north Scotland, a region with low population growth. Productivity in north Scotland was high compared to other Scottish and Welsh populations and equal to English populations with high population growth rates. In north Scotland, annual survival of wild-fledged birds was low for first-year birds compared to other Scottish populations and second-year survival declined over time. In north Scotland, 40% of 103 red kites found dead were killed illegally, mainly by direct poisoning. In the absence of illegal killing, we estimate that annual survival rates in wild red kites might increase from 0.37 to 0.54, 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.87 to 0.92 for first, second-year and adult birds respectively. Demographic rates from this study produce population trends that recapitulate observed trends for the north Scotland population (leading to a population of c40 pairs by 2006). Models in which the additive illegal killing mortality is excluded, predict a population trajectory and size (c300 pairs by 2006) very similar to that found in the Chilterns, a rapidly growing population (320 pairs in 2006) in south-east England re-introduced at the same time, but where rates of illegal killing are much lower. We conclude that illegal killing of red kites is the cause of poor population growth in north Scotland and the key challenge facing government is to find a way to eliminate this killing.     

Exposure to ecotourism reduces survival and affects stress response in hoatzin chicks (Opisthocomus hoazin)

Ecotourism helps to protect many habitats, but may also have negative impacts on wildlife. We investigated effects of ecotourists on reproductive success of hoatzins (Opisthocomus hoazin) and on hormonal status of their chicks in Amazonian rainforest lakes by comparing birds from undisturbed and from tourist-exposed nests. Hatching success was similar in both groups but chick survival was much lower at tourist-exposed nests than at undisturbed nests. This effect was due to an increased mortality of juveniles prior to fledging whereas small nestlings seemed largely unaffected. Juveniles, but not nestlings, living at tourist-exposed sites had a lower body mass and showed a stronger hormonal response to experimental stress compared to individuals at undisturbed sites. These data suggest that juvenile hoatzins were susceptible to tourist-induced stress which in turn may be responsible for the lower survival. In contrast, adult hoatzins that were incubating had apparently habituated to tourist presence because their flush distances at tourist-exposed nests were 50% lower than at undisturbed sites. Our findings demonstrate that individuals in different life stages show different susceptibilities to tourism. We suggest that even just watching animals during breeding can threaten their survival, but a proper scientific management of off-limit zones and area-specific guidelines for wildlife observation could reduce harmful effects.     

Long-term survival of de-oiled Cape gannets Morus capensis after the Castillo de Bellver oil spill of 1983

After oil spills, oiled wildlife are regularly cleaned at considerable cost. Yet the conservation value of this intervention has been questioned, mostly because cleaned animals appear to have poor post-release survival. However, reliable long-term data are needed to judge the success of such programs. We used 16 ring recoveries to estimate survival of 932 Cape gannets (Morus capensis) that were oiled, cleaned and released in 1983. For the period 1989-2006, we further compared survival of 162 surviving cleaned gannets to that of 10,558 non-oiled gannets using capture-recapture data. We used modern statistical tools that account for recapture probabilities, recovery rates, transience, and temporary absence from the breeding colonies. Mean annual survival rates of de-oiled gannets ranged from 0.84 (se = 0.05) to 0.88 (se = 0.02), depending on analysis and colony. Between 1989 and 2006, rehabilitated gannets survived slightly less well than unoiled birds, but the difference was similar to the difference in survival between the two colonies where the birds were studied. Our results show subtle long-term effects of oiling and subsequent treatment. However, they also show that cleaned gannets can survive at almost the same rate as unoiled birds, at least if they survived the initial years after release. Rehabilitation of these birds may thus be a valuable conservation intervention for this localised species where a single spill can threaten a large proportion of the world population.     

Impacts of chronic marine oil pollution and the murre hunt in Newfoundland on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations in the eastern Canadian Arctic

We developed a deterministic and stochastic age-based matrix projection population model to assess and quantify the impact of mortality caused by chronic oil pollution and legal hunting on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations breeding and wintering in eastern Canada. We calculate the potential population growth rate in the absence of anthropogenic mortality sources using a modeling technique that translates absolute number of birds killed from anthropogenic mortality to potential survival rates in the absence of these anthropogenic impacts. The intrinsic growth rate of the deterministic matrix based on vital rates from Coats Island (λ_d=1.0102), as well as the stochastic growth rate (λ_s=1.0098, 95% C.I. 0.9969-1.0226), matched observed population trends. Hunting mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.020 (0.012-0.039), oiling mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.025 (0.012-0.039). Combined these sources reduced the population growth rate by 0.047 (0.033-0.610). Although thick-billed murre populations are stable or slowly growing in eastern Canada, anthropogenic sources of mortality are reducing the ability of the population to grow, and increase vulnerability in these populations to changes in their environment and other pulse perturbations. Our modeling technique could be used to assess specific anthropogenic impacts on populations where a vital rates and numbers killed are known, but no long-term trend information is available.     

Evaluating effects of deforestation, hunting, and El Niño events on a threatened lemur

Madagascar ranks as one of the world’s top extinction hotspots because of its high endemism and high rate of habitat degradation. Global climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillations may have confounding impacts on the island’s threatened biota but these effects are less well known. We performed a demographic study of Propithecus edwardsi, a lemur inhabiting the eastern rainforest of Madagascar, to evaluate the impact of deforestation, hunting, and El Niño on its population and to re-evaluate present endangerment categorization under the IUCN. Over 18 years of demographic data, including survival and fecundity rates were used to parameterize a stochastic population model structured with three stage classes (yearlings, juveniles, and adults). Results demonstrate that hunting and deforestation are the most significant threats to the population. Analysis of several plausible scenarios and combinations of threat revealed that a 50% population decline within three generations was very likely, supporting current IUCN classification. However, the analysis also suggested that changing global cycles may pose further threat. The average fecundity of lemurs was over 65% lower during El Niño years. While not as severe as deforestation or hunting, if El Niño events remain at the current high frequency there may be negative consequences for the population. We suggest that it is most critical for this species continued survival to create more protected areas, not only to thwart hunting and deforestation, but also to give this endangered lemur a better chance to recover from and adapt to altered climate cycles in the future.     

Demographic consequences of adaptive growth and the ramifications for conservation of long-lived organisms

Understanding how organisms respond to human impacts is increasingly challenging biologists. Short-lived organisms can adapt rapidly to changes in environmental hazards, but only recently have long-lived organisms been shown to adapt to human impacts. Changes in any life-history trait, such as individual growth rates, may affect demographic model predictions and reliability of elasticity analyses that are often used to help manage and conserve long-lived organisms. The aim of this study was to test model predictions of the effect of increased recruitment and density-dependent processes to manage populations of long-lived turtles in two continents. We explored how human-induced changes in juvenile density affect population growth estimates and the strength of selection on stage-based life-history traits. Model projections undervalued the potential effect of an increase in nest survival. Sensitivity calculations indicated greatest selection intensities for juvenile growth or maturation, whereas elasticity analyses indicated that changes in adult survival have the largest proportional effect on population fitness. Long-term use of the locality of our North American population as a recreational site may have increased adult mortality of turtles and reduced the number of nest predators, inducing rapid individual growth and early maturation. The traditional static view of turtle life history and demography thus is inappropriate even over relatively short periods of time. Anthropogenically-induced changes in demographic processes can potentially induce adaptive changes to life-history processes, which can seriously impact the reliability of long-term projections from common demographic models. Management practices must account for this dynamism accordingly.     

Are edge bird populations doomed to extinction? A retrospective analysis of the common guillemot collapse in Iberia

In the first half of the XXth century, the common guillemot (Uria aalge) was the seabird with the largest breeding population in Atlantic Iberia (ca. 20,000 individuals), the low-latitude limit of the species breeding range. However, this population suffered a dramatic decline and is quasi-extinct at present. The decline was believed to be associated with reduced availability of pelagic prey fish due to climate change. In this study, we analyzed the population change of Iberian guillemots in the second half of the XXth century by means of a retrospective analysis. Our study showed that between 1960 and 1974 the guillemots in Iberia suffered a dramatic population crash (33.3% annual decline) and that subsequently, the population continued to decline at a slower annual rate (13.4%). Simulation models indicated that the factors driving the population crash should be related to adult survival, rather than reproduction. The analysis of environmental and fishery data suggested good climate conditions and higher or sustained availability of pelagic prey fish when the Iberian guillemots crashed. In contrast, relevant human-related factors were affecting adult mortality in that period, specially a rapid and large increase in the number of synthetic fishing nets. During the collapse, no conservation measures were undertaken to mitigate anthropogenic threats and it was assumed, in some extent, that this low-latitude edge population was somehow prone to extinction as a consequence of climate change. This study highlights that to carelessly attribute the decline of rear edge populations to climate change could be highly misleading if the population is suffering from other, particularly human, threats.     

Assessing the impact of fisheries, climate and disease on the dynamics of the Indian yellow-nosed Albatross

Many seabird populations are currently decreasing, especially albatrosses for which the primary threat is recognised to be mortality in fisheries. Introduced predators, climate change and other factors such as diseases can also have large impacts on seabirds. Here, we assessed the relative effect of three potential threats: climate, fisheries and diseases on the demography of an endangered marine predator and modelled its population dynamics to project its size under different scenarios. We based our study on a long-term monitoring of a colony of individually marked Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses at Amsterdam Island, subtropical Indian Ocean, that has declined during the past twenty years. We found no evidence for an impact of legal tuna longlining on demographic parameters. Hatching success was lower during El Niño years but survival (0.902 ± 0.011) was not affected by climatic factors. Avian cholera caused high chick mortality (0.808 ± 0.181) which in turn probably triggered the high emigration rate (0.038 ± 0.011) through dispersal of failed breeders. This colony has a high risk of extinction. However, the rest of the population at Amsterdam Island seemingly not affected to the same extent, declined but stabilised since 1998. Matrix models indicated that lowered adult survival and the very low breeding success, resulting in low recruitment, have both contributed to the decline of the yellow-nosed albatross colony until the mid-1990s, but that more recent decline was primarily caused by low fledging success. Our results highlight that potential threats such as fisheries, diseases or climate have to be considered simultaneously to disentangle their roles when assessing the conservation status of a marine predator species.     

Demography and conservation of the Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena

The Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena is the third rarest albatross species, with a breeding population of around 1500 pairs almost totally restricted to Gough Island in the Tristan da Cunha group, central South Atlantic. During January 2000, the entire breeding population of Gough was surveyed for the first time since 1956, and 2400 incubating pairs were counted. An analysis of the areas that are likely to have been surveyed most accurately in the past suggests that the population has decreased by around 28% over 46 years. The number of large chicks counted over three successive seasons (1999-2001) was highly variable (range 318-1129). The average count over this period (705 chicks) is less than counts made in 1979 (792) and 1982 (798). A total of 656 chicks were counted in September 2001, giving an island breeding success of just 27.3%. However, breeding success varied considerably in different areas of the island, ranging from 17.6 to 68.0%. During the 2001 season most breeding failures were of large chicks, and over 4 years where data were available, 75% of breeding failures occurred during the chick period. Predation by introduced house mice Mus musculus is the most likely cause of chick mortality. In a small study population, birds began breeding at an average age of 9.7 years and annual adult survival from 1985 to 2001 was 92.6% (SE=1.6%). Both breeding success and adult survival estimates are low in comparison with other Diomedea species and population modelling predicts a population decreasing at an annual rate of 2.9-5.3%. Further research is needed urgently to assess whether breeding success is typical, and to confirm that mouse predation is the cause of chick mortality. The low productivity of this species will compound the negative impacts of longline fishing mortality, which are likely to be reducing adult and juvenile survival.     

The anatomy of a (potential) disaster: Volcanoes, behavior, and population viability of the short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus)

Catastrophic events, either from natural (e.g., hurricane) or human-induced (e.g., forest clear-cut) processes, are a well-known threat to wild populations. However, our lack of knowledge about population-level effects of catastrophic events has inhibited the careful examination of how catastrophes affect population growth and persistence. For the critically endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), episodic volcanic eruptions are considered a serious catastrophic threat since approximately 80% of the global population of ∼2500 birds (in 2006) currently breeds on an active volcano, Torishima Island. We evaluated how short-tailed albatross population persistence is affected by the catastrophic threat of a volcanic eruption relative to chronic threats. We also provide an example for overcoming the seemingly overwhelming problems created by modelling the population dynamics of a species with limited demographic data by incorporating uncertainty in our analysis. As such, we constructed a stochastic age-based matrix model that incorporated both catastrophic mortality due to volcanic eruptions and chronic mortality from several potential sources (e.g., contaminant exposure, fisheries bycatch) to determine the relative effects of these two types of threats on short-tailed albatross population growth and persistence. Modest increases (1%) in chronic (annual) mortality had a 2.5-fold greater effect on predicted short-tailed albatross stochastic population growth rate (lambda) than did the occurrence of periodic volcanic eruptions that follow historic eruption frequencies (annual probability of eruption 2.2%). Our work demonstrates that periodic catastrophic volcanic eruptions, despite their dramatic nature, are less likely to affect the population viability and recovery of short-tailed albatross than low-level chronic mortality.     

Demographic effects of road mortality in black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta)

Roads negatively affect animal populations by presenting barriers to movement and gene flow and by causing mortality. We investigated the impact of a secondary road on a population of black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta) in Ontario, Canada by radio-tracking 105 individuals over 8 years. The road was not a significant barrier to movement and none of the reproductive classes examined (male, non-reproductive female, reproductive female) avoided crossing the road. However, the road was a significant source of mortality. From a total of 115 road crossings by radio-implanted snakes, 3 individuals were killed by cars, resulting in a mortality rate of 0.026 deaths per crossing. We multiplied this mortality rate by the total number of expected road crossings by all individuals in the population in an active season (340) to estimate the number of road kills (9 individuals) each year. This estimate was higher than the actual number of road kills found, but half the number estimated from road kill models. Population viability analysis revealed that our estimate of road mortality was enough to increase the extinction probability for this population from 7.3% to 99% over 500 years. Road mortality of more than 3 adult females per year increased the extinction probability to >90%. Our results strengthen the view that road mortality can have a pronounced negative effect on populations of long-lived species.