Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (λ) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, λ was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in λ accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls.     

Lessons about extinction and translocation: models for eastern barred bandicoots (Perameles gunnii) at Woodlands Historic Park, Victoria, Australia

In 1998 the protected population of Perameles gunnii (eastern barred bandicoot) at Woodlands Historic Park, Victoria, Australia became functionally extinct following removals of individuals for translocation between 1994 and 1996. Population viability analysis and data collected whilst the population was in decline are used to explore the impact that these removals had on the decline of the P. gunnii population at Woodlands. Due to some ambiguities in the life history of P. gunnii at Woodlands, two structurally different population models were used. Explicitly including the removal of animals in the analysis indicates that there may be at least a three-fold increase in the risk of quasiextinction due to removals. In some scenarios, over 17% of the trajectories decrease to a level less than or equal to 10 females within the observed time period of the collapse of the population, that is by April 1998. The modelling approach identified a number of critical factors in the decline of the population, such as variation in survival rates. By representing the life history strategy using two alternate models, quantitative statements about the impact that removals had on the population decline at Woodlands are made. While removals probably contributed to the collapse of the population, removals were not the sole cause of population decline. The real reasons for decline remain unknown; however, it is likely to be closely linked to habitat decline, difficult environmental conditions and predation. If P. gunnii are reintroduced to Woodlands again, then the models presented here may help to develop management strategies to establish a self sustaining population, as well as exploring translocations options.     

Assessing habitat use of the endangered marine mollusc Patella ferruginea (Gastropoda, Patellidae) in northern Africa: preliminary results and implications for conservation

The limpet Patella ferruginea Gmelin, 1791, endemic to the Mediterranean, is the most endangered marine species on the list of the European Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the Conservation of Natural Habitat of Wild Fauna and Flora (1992). Its Mediterranean range has progressively contracted to a few restricted areas and the species is now threatened with extinction. Seventeen stations were sampled along the littoral zone on the coast of Ceuta, North Africa, for quantifying environmental factors (water movement, siltation and suspended solids), and 70 transects were selected for P. ferruginea sampling. The study revealed the presence of a well-established population of P. ferruginea with values of density and size of 0.67 individuals m⁻¹ ±0.96 and 48.94 mm±11.61 respectively (mean±standard error of mean). The biggest densities of P. ferruginea were found inside the harbour of Ceuta. The limpets were more abundant on artificial harbour stones than on natural rocky shores, and the areas under the highest human pressure were characterised by the lowest densities and the smallest specimens probably due mainly to the predation for food and fishing. Human pressure is probably the main contributing factor to the currently endangered status of P. ferruginea. Programmes of environmental education to avoid its collection for fishing, food or for fun as decorative objects should be conducted, and further experimental studies dealing with the reproductive biology of this species are needed to properly assess the future programmes of conservation.     

Multiple spatial scale logistic and autologistic habitat selection models for northern pygmy owls, along the eastern slopes of Alberta’s Rocky Mountains

Little is known about the distribution and habitat use of northern pygmy owls (Glaucidium gnoma), in Alberta or throughout their range. In Alberta they are ranked as ‘sensitive’, meaning they are not believed to be at immediate risk of extirpation or extinction but may require special attention or protection to prevent them from becoming at risk.Diurnal broadcast surveys were conducted to determine distribution and habitat selection throughout a 28,500 km² study area situated along the eastern slopes of the Alberta Rocky Mountains. Surveys lasted for eight weeks in 2001, during which time 1532 site visits were made. Forty-eight responses were recorded at 42 sites representing 40 individual northern pygmy owls. Predictive models of habitat selection were developed using stepwise logistic and autologistic regression. Autologistic models accounted for observed spatial dependencies and as a result, produced better fitting models that more accurately reflect the role of predictor variables in influencing species occurrence. All models considered biophysical variable selection at two spatial scales, the minimum (75 ha) and maximum (300 ha) home range size. Northern pygmy owls showed a preference for older, structurally diverse mixedwood habitats, with line-of-sight enhanced by increased edge and terrain roughness.The use of habitat selection models resulting from this project and Geographic Information Systems as a tool, will enable managers to identify key habitat features, focus future survey efforts, set habitat goals and evaluate the effects of management decisions on current and future habitat availability.     

Soil and climate are better than biotic land cover for predicting home-range habitat selection by endangered burrowing owls across the Canadian Prairies

Statistical models that describe species-environmental relationships are important components within many wildlife conservation strategies. These models are typically developed from studies conducted on small geographic scales (hundreds of square kilometres), representing a relatively small range in environmental conditions. Such local models from local studies are often then extrapolated to predict the suitability of other unsampled regions. The value of many models would be increased by considering larger-scale processes that might be structuring spatial patterns across species distributions. We examined home-range habitat selection by burrowing owls throughout the mixed prairie grassland region of western Canada (180,000 km²) to determine whether owl selection for biotic factors changes along abiotic gradients. Specifically, we classified 37 explanatory variables into five categories (geography, grassland fragmentation, land-use, soil, and climate), created models for each set of variables, and evaluated the predictive ability of each model. We then examined interaction effects to determine if the relationship between land cover variables and the probability of owl home-range selection varied within large-scale abiotic criteria. Our results showed that soil and climate produce the most predictive models of burrowing owl home-range selection and create unique environmental conditions for owls which are independent of land cover at this scale. This study provides new insight into burrowing owl habitat requirements, and strengthens the case for considering large-scale abiotic gradients when prioritizing areas for species conservation.     

Assessing sensitivity to climate change and drought variability of a sand dune endemic lizard

Bioclimatic models aimed assessing a species’ sensitivity to climate change incorporate mean shifts in climate variables; however the more acute threat to the persistence of species may result from increased frequency of extreme climatic events, including increased duration and severity of droughts. Here we assess climate-change sensitivity using niche modeling that unlike bioclimatic modeling incorporates both climate variables as well as other habitat features that constrain a species’ distribution. We analyzed the effects of potential increases in drought frequency for an endangered, sand dune-restricted lizard, a species restricted to a narrowly occurring substrate and so unable to move up-slope or pole-ward to track climate shifts. Our niche modeling results indicated only minor losses to the area of suitable niche space at lower levels of modeled climate change; at the most severe climate shifts we tested the area of suitable niche space reduced by slightly more than 50%. However, extrapolating the potential impacts of reduced rainfall on drought periodicity and intensity showed a more immediate and acute impact on the lizard’s populations. Drought duration projections coupled with landscape fragmentation resulted in rapid losses of suitable niche space, beginning in the more arid portion of the lizard’s range and extending into more moderate climate areas. Although there is greater uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change on drought periodicity than with shifts in mean conditions, our results show a greater potential for droughts to negatively impact species’ resilience to such changes.     

Evaluating potential infectious disease threats for southern resident killer whales, Orcinus orca: a model for endangered species

Infectious diseases have the potential to play a role in the decline of threatened wildlife populations, as well as negatively affect their long-term viability, but determining which infectious agents present risks can be difficult. The southern resident killer whale, Orcinus orca, population is endangered and little is known about infectious diseases in this species. Using available reference literature, we identified 15 infectious agents (bacteria, viruses, and fungi) reported in free-ranging and captive killer whales, as well as 28 additional infectious agents reported in free-ranging and captive odontocete species sympatric to southern resident killer whales. Infectious agents were scored as having a high, medium, or low ability to affect fecundity or reproductive success, to cause disease in individual animals, and to cause epizootics. Marine Brucella spp., cetacean poxvirus, cetacean morbilliviruses, and herpesviruses were identified as high priority pathogens that warrant further study. Using identified pathogens to develop a standardized necropsy and disease testing protocol for southern resident killer whales and sympatric odontocetes will improve future efforts to better understand the impacts of priority and non-priority infectious agents on southern resident killer whales. This model can be used to evaluate potential infectious disease risks in other threatened wildlife populations.     

Using habitat models to determine conservation priorities for pond-breeding amphibians in a privately-owned landscape of northern Idaho, USA

As rural landscapes experience increasing levels of residential development, the persistence of species that rely on them will depend on informed planning and management decisions. An understanding of habitat requirements is essential for setting priorities and developing landscape-level plans for the survival of these species. In many temperate rural landscapes, artificially created ponds may be the only wetlands available for aquatic reproduction by amphibians. The introduction of non-native fish into these ponds reduces survival and prohibits successful reproduction of many native pond-breeding amphibians. We surveyed 105 randomly selected wetlands in a primarily privately-owned, rural landscape in north Idaho, USA, for pond-breeding amphibian larvae in 2004 and 2005. We used an information theoretic multimodel inference and an algorithmic (random forests) approach to model habitat for each species based on local and landscape characteristics. We also used a mail survey to quantify how landowners value fish in their wetlands and their plans for future wetland development and fish stocking. Sixty-seven percent of pond owners reported that fishing in their pond was at least slightly important to them and 36% of owners indicated that they were at least 50% likely to add fish to their ponds in the next 5-10 years. Landscape change predictions for this area indicate that forests will become more open due to thinning; habitat models indicated that this is likely to be detrimental to long-toed salamanders and beneficial to Pacific treefrogs. Habitat models also indicate that Columbia spotted frog breeding sites consist of wetlands on flat ground with high solar insolation and that this species is sensitive to nearby development, indicating that as this landscape becomes further developed, this species may require habitat protection for persistence.     

Modelling the population dynamics of the Mt. Graham red squirrel: Can we predict its future in a changing environment with multiple threats?

The Mt. Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis; MGRS) is among the most critically endangered mammals in the United States and is isolated on the periphery of the species’ range, potentially increasing its conservation priority. To investigate potential threats to the population and provide a tool for land managers, we developed a spatially explicit population dynamics model. We tested model predictions using available range-wide data from the literature and field work specific to the MGRS. A general model input data set using mean life history values overpredicted MGRS abundance. However, we found significant correlation with known squirrel abundance using a general data set with curtailed fecundity and survival. A model with MGRS-specific data provided the best fit to observed population size. We investigated potential impacts of two major threats to the MGRS: competition from introduced Abert’s squirrels (Sciurus aberti) and increased levels of predation. Predation and particularly competition could have significant effects on the future population of the MGRS. Careful attention must be used to model the viability of fringe populations as peripheral populations can have a different life history than populations found in the range core.     

Herbicides, weeds and endangered species: management of bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. rotundata) with glyphosate and impacts on the endangered shrub, Pimelea spicata

Environmental weed invasion threatens the biodiversity of native species. Unfortunately, managing these weeds may also affect biodiversity adversely. A recent example occurred when glyphosate, a herbicide used to control the highly invasive weed, bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. rotundata), accidentally drifted over a small population of an endangered shrub, Pimelea spicata. Following concerns that the affected population would not recover and, thereby, cause the local extinction of P. spicata, we conducted a series of glasshouse and field experiments to explore the impacts of glyphosate on this endangered species. Seedlings and young plants of P. spicata, in which the tap root was undeveloped, were killed by a single application of glyphosate. Older plants with a well developed tap root also died back initially, but about 50% of individuals re-sprouted. This re-growth was associated with a significant decrease in tap root diameter, implying that further disturbance, including repeated treatment with glyphosate, would kill plants by impairing their potential for recovery. Unlike some sclerophyllous native shrubs, the tolerance of P. spicata to glyphosate was limited, even when its growth was slowed artificially by limiting water availability. Winter applications of glyphosate to manage infestations of bitou bush will impact adversely on populations of P. spicata and may also affect the other rare and endangered species whose survival is threatened by this species, even though some natives are unaffected by the herbicide. Protecting native biodiversity from bitou bush will involve sustainable weed management that minimises impacts on non-target native species.     

Habitat selection by the pale-headed brush-finch (Atlapetes pallidiceps) in southern Ecuador: implications for conservation

The pale-headed brush-finch (Atlapetes pallidiceps) is threatened with extinction due to habitat loss, but very little is known about its ecological requirements. We used multiple logistic regression to study habitat selection of this species at landscape, territory, and nest site scales in order to make recommendations about effective management. Habitat selection by the sympatric stripe-headed brush-finch (Buarremon torquatus) was examined with the same methods in order to analyse interspecific resource partitioning and potential competition. The pale-headed brush-finch selected semi-open habitat types with intermediate scrub heights, and avoided forests. Nest sites depended on the presence of vines or bamboo. By contrast, the stripe-headed brush-finch chose dense habitat with low ground cover under tall vegetation and avoided semi-open habitat. The two species had overlapping territories but differed significantly in microhabitat use and the use of vegetation strata. We found no convincing evidence that the stripe-headed brush-finch displaces the pale-headed brush-finch from optimal habitat. The preservation of semi-open scrubland maintained by low-intensity grazing is suggested for future conservation of the pale-headed brush-finch.     

Resource availability, matrix quality, microclimate, and spatial pattern as predictors of patch use by the Karner blue butterfly

Determination of which aspects of habitat quality and habitat spatial arrangement best account for variation in a species’ distribution can guide management for organisms such as the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis), a federally endangered subspecies inhabiting savannas of Midwest and Eastern United States. We examined the extent to which three sets of predictors, (1) larval host plant (Lupinus perennis, wild lupine) availability, (2) characteristics of the matrix surrounding host plant patches, and (3) factors affecting a patch’s thermal environment, accounted for variation in lupine patch use by Karner blues at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Indiana and Fort McCoy, Wisconsin, USA. Each predictor set accounted for 7-13% of variation in patch occupancy by Karner blues at both sites and in larval feeding activity among patches at Indiana Dunes. Patch area, an indicator of host plant availability, was an exception, accounting for 30% of variation in patch occupancy at Indiana Dunes. Spatially structured patterns of patch use across the landscape accounted for 9-16% of variation in patch use and explained more variation in larval feeding activity than did spatial autocorrelation between neighboring patches. Because of this broader spatial trend across sites, a given management action may be more effective in promoting patch use in some portions of the landscape than in others. Spatial trend, resource availability, matrix quality, and microclimate, in general, accounted for similar amounts of variation in patch use and each should be incorporated into habitat management planning for the Karner blue butterfly.     

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species’ survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species’ annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population’s capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population’s response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.     

Status of tiger and leopard in Rajaji-Corbett Conservation Unit, northern India

Rajaji-Corbett Tiger Conservation Unit (RCTCU), in northern India, is one of the 11 Level-I Tiger Conservation Units (TCU) identified in the Indian subcontinent for the long-term conservation of the tiger. This TCU of about 7500 km² stretches from the Yamuna River in the west to Sharda River in the east and includes portions of the Outer Himalaya and the Shivalik hills. Little less than one third of this TCU comes under protected area status (Rajaji National Park—820 km², and Corbett Tiger Reserve—1286 km²) and the rest are under 12 reserve forest divisions, five of which have largely been converted into monoculture plantations. Between November 1999 and March 2000, we evaluated the status of tiger and leopard in RCTCU by counting the number of different pug marks on 3-5 km transect walks along 52 dry stream beds (‘raus’), for a total distance of 479 km in these reserve forests and plantations. People and cattle seen along the transects, were also counted, as an index of disturbance. In this TCU, the tiger occurs in three isolated populations: between the west bank of River Ganges and River Yamuna, from the east bank of Ganges to Kathgodam-Haldwani-Lalkuan Highway and between the Highway and River Sharda. Owing to increasing biotic pressures, the tiger has become rare in Rajaji-Corbett corridor and has become extinct in four divisions. There is a growing threat of further degradation and fragmentation of its habitat. To implement a recovery programme, we suggest several management measures such as control of poaching, resettlement of local tribes (gujjars) and five villages, creation and strengthening of forest corridors, conversion of monocultures into polyculture plantations and establishment of several mini-core areas including Nandaur Valley National Park. We recommend the reliable and user-friendly method used by us to evaluate and monitor the status of leopard and tiger in this conservation unit. A suggested Greater Corbett Tiger Reserve (2000 km²) should be kept as inviolate as possible.     

Effects of Key deer herbivory on forest communities in the lower Florida Keys

Ungulate herbivory can have strong impacts on plant communities, but these impacts are rarely considered in recovery plans of endangered species. This study examined the effects of the endangered Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) on its environment in the lower Florida Keys. The Key deer population has increased to over 700 deer from approximately 50 deer in the 1950s; however, approximately 75% of the population resides on only a few islands (Big Pine, No Name, Big Munson) where Key deer herbivory on forest communities may be substantial. Effects of deer herbivory on plant densities were estimated on these islands using vegetation quadrats in hardwood hammock, buttonwood transition, and mangrove wetlands and compared to nine other islands with intermediate or low deer densities. On islands with high deer density, densities of preferred woody plant species <1.2 m tall (within Key deer reach) were significantly lower than islands with lower deer densities, while densities of some nonpreferred species were significantly higher. Deer exclosures established in hardwood hammock on a high-density deer island revealed a mean increase in abundance/height of preferred woody species inside exclosures, while nonpreferred species significantly increased in open plots. We conclude that on high deer density islands, highly preferred plant species might eventually fail to regenerate and unpalatable plant species may become dominant. Careful criteria need to be developed to maintain Key deer numbers above an endangered species status yet below levels that are destructive to local forest species.     

Extinction behind our backs: the possible fate of one of the Darwin’s finch species on Isla Floreana, Galápagos

Without regular monitoring a rare species may slip into extinction unnoticed. We report a possible case from the Galápagos archipelago. The warbler finch (Certhidea fusca) has not been recorded by scientists on Isla Floreana in recent years, and we have been concerned about its status. On a two-day visit to prime habitat in the breeding season of 2004 we used playback of warbler finch song and calls recorded on another island to stimulate an approach of local birds. We failed to find a single warbler finch, whereas we encountered numerous small tree finches (Camarhynchus parvulus), medium tree finches (C. pauper) and yellow warblers (Dendroica petechia). Searches in 1979, 1983, 1997 and 1999 were also unsuccessful. Our continuing failure to find any warbler finches indicates the species must be extremely rare on the island, if not actually extinct. We discuss possible reasons for their demise and draw attention to other species that could be heading in the same direction.     

Factors associated with survival of reintroduced riparian brush rabbits in California

The riparian brush rabbit (Sylvilagus bachmani riparius) is an endangered species found in dense, brushy habitat in the California’s Central Valley. We implemented a reintroduction program to bolster populations at a Federal Wildlife Refuge and to assess factors influencing mortality and subsequent survival of released individuals. Between July 2002 and July 2005, we reintroduced 325 captive-bred individuals to unoccupied habitat within their historic range using a soft-release strategy and monitored their subsequent survival with radiotelemetry. Longer time in soft-release pens resulted in increased monthly survival. Rabbits were most susceptible to post-release mortality during the first 4 weeks following reintroduction and both body mass and length of time in the soft-release enclosure influenced this relationship. When we controlled for release mortality during this acclimation period, subsequent monthly survival probabilities were most strongly influenced by release year (year 1 vs. years 2 and 3) and by a catastrophic flooding event; length of time in the soft-release enclosure remained an important variable in longer-term survival. Cause of mortality was unknown for the majority of deaths (61.9%), but predation (including presumptive predation) was the greatest known cause of death in translocated rabbits (26.4%). Reintroduction programs should employ an adaptive management approach with ongoing monitoring of target animals and concurrent analysis to allow managers to adjust methods as conditions dictate.     

Surface water and ground-water thresholds for maintaining Populus-Salix forests, San Pedro River, Arizona

Ground-water and surface flow depletions are altering riparian ecosystems throughout the southwestern United States, and have contributed to the decline of forests of the pioneer trees Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood) and Salix gooddingii (Goodding willow). On some rivers, these forests have been replaced by shrublands of Tamarix ramosissima (tamarisk), a drought-tolerant species from Eurasia. The physiological response of these three riparian plant species to decreases in water availability is well studied, but little attention has been given to shifts in community and population structure in response to declines in surface flow and ground-water levels. Based on study of 17 sites spanning a hydrologic gradient, this research identified hydrologic thresholds above which P. fremontii-S. gooddingii maintain tall dense stands with diverse age classes, and above which they are more abundant than T. ramosissima stands along the San Pedro River in Arizona. Surface flow permanence was the hydrologic variable that explained most of the variance in species abundance and relative importance, with inter-annual ground-water fluctuation and depth to ground water also contributing. P. fremontii and S. gooddingii were dominant over T. ramosissima at sites where surface flow was present more than 76% of the time, inter-annual ground-water fluctuation was less than 0.5 m, and average maximum depth to ground water was less than 2.6 m, during a two-year period of data collection. Because T. ramosissima is a shrub species with smaller leaves and lower canopy heights than P. fremontii and S. gooddingii, these shifts in species composition corresponded to decreases in maximum canopy height and upper stratum (above 8 m) vegetation volume as site water availability declined. As well, sites with deeper water tables and more intermittent flows had greater areal coverage of shrublands and less of woodlands. The altered vegetation structure along dewatered rivers may lower wildlife habitat quality. This study provides river managers with quantitative hydrologic guidelines for conserving tall dense P. fremontii-S. gooddingii stands and emphasizes the importance of maintaining long-term hydrologic conditions that are favorable to these species. The study also has implications for riparian restoration and invasive species management by suggesting that desired outcomes may be achieved through restoration of physical processes.     

Monitoring distributions using call surveys: estimating site occupancy, detection probabilities and inferring absence

Monitoring programs serve to track changes in the distribution and abundance of species. A major problem with most monitoring programs is that species detection is imperfect and some populations are inevitably missed. Therefore, in most monitoring programs the true distribution of a species will be underestimated. Here, we report a field test of the reliability and performance of a commonly used method to monitor the distribution of amphibians (anuran call surveys). We surveyed the distribution of four anuran species in western Switzerland, and estimated detection probabilities to account for imperfect species detection and used these estimates to adjust our estimate of site occupancy (i.e., distribution). Next, we assessed how detection probabilities were affected by weather and how site occupancy was affected by site specific covariates. For one species (Hyla arborea), call surveys proved efficient in determining the regional distribution with only few site visits because detection probabilities were relatively high. The call surveys apparently missed many populations of another common species (Bufo calamita) because detection probabilities were lower. Two other species (Bombina variegata and Alytes obstetricans) were uncommon and strong inference from the analysis is not possible. Thus, multispecies surveys may be inefficient for rare species. Estimates of detection probabilities were used to calculate how many site visits are necessary to infer the absence of a species with some predetermined statistical certainty. The implications of “false absences” are important in ecology as they are known to bias usual habitat suitability models and overestimate extinction/colonization events in metapopulations. Large-scale monitoring programs would benefit from the application of an estimation-based approach to monitoring the distribution of species.     

The effect of habitat fragmentation on communities of mutualists: Amazonian ants and their host plants

The consequences of fragmentation for communities of mutualist partners are for the most part unknown; moreover, most studies addressing this issue have been conducted on plant-pollinator communities. We evaluated how the experimental fragmentation of lowland Amazonian rain forest influenced a community of ant-plant mutualists. We inventoried a total of 1057 myrmecophytes in four fragments and four continuous forest sites; the twelve plant species recorded were occupied by 33 ant morphospecies, of which 11 were obligate plant inhabitants. Neither plant species richness, ant species richness, nor total ant-plant density were significantly lower in forest fragments. However, eight of the plant species, including three of the four most common, had higher mean densities in continuous forest than fragments. Of these four species, only one (Cordia nodosa) had significantly different colonization rates between habitat types, with higher colonization rates of plants in fragments. This may be because the Azteca species it is associated with increases in abundance in forest isolates. Although our results suggest that communities of ant-plant mutualists are likely to persist in fragmented tropical landscapes 25 years after fragment isolation, most species are rare and populations sizes in fragments are extremely low. Environmental and demographic stochasticity could therefore limit long-term population viability. We suggest future studies focus on evaluating how fragmentation has altered herbivore pressure and the dispersal of ants and plants to fragments, since the interaction of these factors is likely to have the greatest impact on long-term patterns of population persistence.