Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: The otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species.Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HADCM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas.Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter’s potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.     

Assessment of current and proposed nature reserves of Mexico based on their capacity to protect geophysical features and biodiversity

Mexico currently has 144 nature reserves covering approximately 9.1% of its land area. These reserves were established for a variety of reasons—often unrelated to the protection of biodiversity. In 2000 in response to a growing concern about the lack of organized conservation reserve planning to protect the important threatened biological and physical features of Mexico, the Mexican Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (CONABIO) proposed the establishment of 151 new reserves for Mexico covering 51,429,500 ha. We compiled a GIS analysis using digital thematic maps of physical and biological features to examine how the existing and proposed reserves serve to protect the biodiversity and physical features of the country. Using a conservation target of placing a minimum of 12% of the land area of each important biophysical feature in nature reserves, we found that the 144 existing nature reserves covering 18 million ha (9% of the country) only meet that target for elevation ranges >3000 m and areas with poor soils. These mountainous areas represent less than 1% of the country. The gaps in the existing nature reserves network occur mainly at lower and intermediate elevations (<3000 m) areas with xeric, tropical, and temperate ecosystems, and high productivity soils. The areas proposed by CONABIO increase the proportion of protected lands in the country to over 27% and most of the conservation targets for geophysical features, and land cover, categories are met. Whether this area would be sufficient to maintain viable populations and ecological integrity of species and ecosystems is unknown. Even with the new reserves, low elevation coastal lands would be below the conservation target in the nature reserves. To include a representative sample of these lands would be difficult as these are the same areas where the majority of people live.     

Sensitivity of conservation planning to different approaches to using predicted species distribution data

The main role of conservation planning is to design reserve networks to protect biodiversity in situ. Research within the field of conservation planning has focused on the development of theories and tools to design reserve networks that protect biodiversity in an efficient and representative manner. Whilst much progress has been made in this regard, there has been limited assessment of the sensitivity of conservation planning outcomes to uncertainty associated with the datasets used for conservation planning. Predicted species distribution data are commonly used for conservation planning because the alternatives (e.g. survey data) are incomplete or biased spatially. However, there may be considerable uncertainty associated with the use of predicted species distribution data, particularly given the variety of approaches available to generate a dataset from such predictions for use in conservation planning. These approaches range from using the probabilistic data directly to using a threshold identified a priori or a posteriori to convert the probabilistic data to presence/absence data. We assess the sensitivity of conservation planning outcomes to different uses of predicted species distribution data. The resulting reserve networks differed, and had different expected species representation. The choice of approach will depend on how much risk a conservation planner is willing to tolerate and how much efficiency can be sacrificed.     

Applying ecological niche modelling to plan conservation actions for the Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei)

The Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei) is an endangered, small range and migratory parrot threatened by habitat destruction and pet trade. We modelled its geographical distribution with the objective of predicting its historical, current and future (in face of climatic changes) geographical distributions. We also tested the assumption that the species tracks similar ecological conditions while seasonally migrating. Finally, we estimated the overlap between its predicted distributions and the current protected areas network. We used eight modelling techniques in an ensemble-forecasting approach to reach consensus distributional scenarios. The modelled historical breeding and wintering ranges covered a larger area than today. Its current year-round distribution is located in the same region as before but decreased by 13%, whereas the breeding range decreased by 32%, and the wintering range by 43%. The future year-round distribution is predicted to decrease by 47% and shift to east by 2060. Even more drastic decreases in range are predicted for breeding (63%) and wintering (91%) ranges. The niches of the breeding and wintering distributions are good predictors of the records of the other season. The greatest variation (SDs) in the predictions comes from modelling tools and GCMs, and little from climatic scenarios. However, variation in predictions were small within high probability regions for modelling tools by higher everywhere for GCMs and climatic scenarios. The Red-spectacled Amazon is currently underrepresented (<1% of year-round range, and <4% of each seasonal range) in the current reserve system. A broad view over all estimated and predicted ranges revealed that a small portion of the range has a very important role in current and future conservation actions for this bird - in the northeast part of state of Rio Grande do Sul and southeast state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.     

Climate change might drive the invasive tree Robinia pseudacacia into nature reserves and endangered habitats

Static networks of nature reserves disregard the dynamics of species ranges in changing environments. In fact, climate warming has been shown to potentially drive endangered species out of reserves. Less attention has been paid to the related problem that a warmer climate may also foster the invasion of alien species into reserve networks. Here, we use niche-based predictive modelling to assess to which extent the Austrian Natura 2000 network and a number of habitat types of conservation value outside this network might be prone to climate warming driven changes in invasion risk by Robinia pseudacacia L., one of the most problematic alien plants in Europe.Results suggest that the area potentially invaded by R. pseudacacia will increase considerably under a warmer climate. Interestingly, invasion risk will grow at a higher than average rate for most of the studied habitat types but less than the national average in Natura 2000 sites. This result points to a potential bias in legal protection towards high mountain areas which largely will remain too cold for R. pseudacacia. In contrast, the selected habitat types are more frequent in montane or lower lying regions, where R. pseudacacia invasion risk will increase most pronouncedly.We conclude that management plans of nature reserves should incorporate global warming driven changes in invasion risk in a more explicit manner. In case of R. pseudacacia, reducing propagule pressure by avoiding purposeful plantation in the neighbourhood of reserves and endangered habitats is a simple but crucial measure to prevent further invasion under a warmer climate.     

Conservation assessment and prioritization of areas in Northeast India: Priorities for amphibians and reptiles

This study combines niche modeling and systematic area prioritization using distribution data for 131 species of amphibians and reptiles from Northeast India and Burma, with two objectives: (i) to evaluate the performance of the current conservation area network in Northeast India with respect to the representation of amphibians and reptiles, and (ii) to identify potential areas for expanding the current conservation area network. In a two-step protocol, maximum entropy niche modeling was used to project species’ potential geographic occurrences, and the resulting probabilistic distribution data were used to prioritize areas with algorithms that maximize the representation of all species in minimal total area. The results provided a critical assessment of conservation priorities in this data-deficient region, and indicate the utility of combining niche modeling with systematic area prioritization in such situations. Many areas that had been overlooked in previous assessments were identified. Although the existing protected areas were found to be inadequate for representation of amphibian and reptile diversity, the prioritization results show that by targeting a minimal representation of 5% of the current total area suitable for each species, the gaps can be filled with a relatively modest (0.41%) increase in the current total area covered by the network. Extended analyses were also performed to assess the effects of putatively rare species on reserve selection, which showed that the inclusion of these taxa can change the prioritization solutions significantly. The prioritization results also highlight areas of Northeast India that warrant attention from future surveys.     

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species.     

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change and their conservation implications in Japan: A case study of conifers

The Japanese archipelago is a biodiversity hotspot with a unique regional climate influenced by the Asian monsoon circulation, surrounding seas, and complex topography. Japan has numerous mountains and islands, which are potentially vulnerable to climate change. This study evaluated the potential impact of climate change on species diversity in Japan, using 25 conifer tree species as a case study. We applied ensemble models based on generalised additive models, artificial neural networks, generalised boostedmodels, and random forests to species’ locality records at 1 km² resolution. The results indicated a substantial impact, such that 80% of the species may lose over half of their current climatically suitable areas by 2100. The lower altitudinal range limits were projected to shift upwards by 293 m on average, suggesting that alpine/sub-alpine and sub-boreal species may face widespread local extinctions. The impacts on sub-alpine species may be moderated by assisted migration to the northern island where they currently do not occur. However, climatically suitable areas for these species and sub-boreal species that occur on the island overlapped significantly, indicating that assisted migration may entail the risk of introducing biotic competition or interbreeding. Thus, rugged topography and dispersal barriers between islands are likely to amplify the future impacts of climate change in Japan. Limited areas in the central mountain region were identified as potential bioclimatic refugia, which should be conserved as a priority.     

Inter-annual variability in the home range of breeding turtles: Implications for current and future conservation management

We assessed home range size for breeding loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) near the limit of the species range at the Greek island of Zakynthos in the Mediterranean. Thirteen adult females and seven adult males were tracked using GPS units (loggers and transmitters) during May and June of 2006, 2007 and 2008. Kernel analysis indicated that core home range sizes (50% estimator; range: 2.9-19.7 km²) for both males and females were restricted to a 7.5 km tract of coastline. 15% of GPS locations fell outside of the national park protection zones, while within the protected breeding area 88% of GPS locations occurred in zones of minimal protection. Female home ranges were 64% larger in 2008 than in 2006 and 2007, indicating that several years monitoring may be required for the most effective designation of marine protected areas (MPAs). Ten of the tracked females departed the core breeding area on 15 occasions for periods of 1-15 days travelling distances of 10-100 km, although none nested at alternative breeding sites. The inter-annual variability of breeding area home range size and likelihood of incidence of forays appeared be correlated with barometric pressure. The movement responses of loggerheads to environmental conditions implicates an ability to switch nesting areas over small scales in response to climate change. However, such behaviour suggests the protection of existing core breeding sites may be inadequate, with policy makers being required to consider the protection of broader areas to encompass potential changes in the habitat needs of this species.     

A landscape model for quantifying the trade-off between conservation needs and economic constraints in the management of a semi-natural grassland community

We present a landscape model to investigate the ecological consequences and costs of different management regimes in semi-natural grasslands. The model integrates dynamic abiotic conditions, management (i.e. disturbance) regime and response of more than 50 characteristic plant and insect species by modelling the dynamics of relevant niche parameters as predictors for species distribution models. We compare our results for exemplary scenarios differing in spatial and temporal scales and exemplary species belonging to different functional groups through several steps of aggregation.Our analysis aims at the question whether an infrequent massive disturbance by rototilling can serve as a less expensive alternative to annual mowing for preserving the characteristic species composition of open dry grasslands in Southern Germany. Rototilling results in a shifting mosaic determining the habitat quality for plant and animal species that may reduce the survival of local or regional populations.For some meadow species as well as the encroaching shrub species, rototilling has a detrimental effect on regional habitat quality. Other species, e.g. weeds and annual pioneers, strongly benefit or show only negligible reaction. Since this is a multi-objective problem, there is a no magic bullet in selecting an optimum scenario of measures. But by visualising the trade-off between ecological consequences and costs, our model is a valuable tool for conservation managers providing a sound scientific basis for management decisions relying on available ecological knowledge. It is also an interesting example for a model describing complex communities in a relatively simple way, simultaneously considering the main driving factors.     

Linking habitat suitability and seed dispersal models in order to analyse the effectiveness of hydrological fen restoration strategies

The effectiveness of measures targeted at the restoration of populations of endangered species in anthropogenically dominated regions is often limited by a combination of insufficient restoration of habitat quality and dispersal failure. Therefore, the joint prediction of suitable habitat and seed dispersal in dependency of management actions is required for effective nature management. Here we demonstrate an approach, which links a habitat suitability and a seed dispersal model. The linked model describes potential species distribution as a function of current species distribution, species-specific dispersal traits, the number of successful dispersal events, dispersal infrastructure and habitat configuration. The last two variables were related to water management actions. We demonstrate the applicability of the model in a strategy analysis of hydrological restoration measures for a large fen area in which still numerous endangered plant species grow.With the aid of the linked model, we were able to optimise the spatial planning of restoration measures, taking into account both the constraints of water management practices on abiotic restoration and the effects of habitat fragmentation on dispersal. Moreover, we could demonstrate that stand-alone habitat suitability models, which assume unlimited dispersal, may considerably overestimate restoration prospects. For these reasons, we conclude that linked habitat suitability and dispersal models can provide useful insights into spatially differentiated potentials and constraints of nature restoration measures targeted at the sustainable conservation of endangered plant populations whose habitats have been deteriorated due to undesirable effects of land and water management on abiotic conditions. These insights may contribute to the design of cost-effective nature restoration and conservation measures.     

Improving social acceptability of marine protected area networks: A method for estimating opportunity costs to multiple gear types in both fished and currently unfished areas

We present a novel method for calculating the opportunity costs to fishers from their displacement by the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). We used a fishing community in Kubulau District, Fiji to demonstrate this method. We modelled opportunity costs as a function of food fish abundance and probability of catch, based on gear type and market value of species. Count models (including Poisson, negative binomial and two zero-inflated models) were used to predict spatial abundance of preferred target fish species and were validated against field surveys. A profit model was used to investigate the effect of restricted access to transport on costs to fishers. Spatial distributions of fish within the three most frequently sighted food fish families (Acanthuridae, Lutjanidae, Scaridae) varied, with greatest densities of Lutjanidae and Acanthuridae on barrier forereefs and greatest densities of Scaridae on submerged reefs. Modelled opportunity cost indicated that highest costs to fishers arise from restricting access to the barrier forereefs. We included our opportunity cost model in Marxan, a decision support tool used for MPA design, to examine potential MPA configurations for Kubulau District, Fiji Islands. We identified optimum areas for protection in Kubulau with: (a) the current MPA network locked in place; and (b) a clean-slate approach. Our method of modelling opportunity cost gives an unbiased estimate for multiple gear types in a marine environment and can be applied to other regions using existing species data.     

Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming

A generalised linear model was used to predict climatically suitable habitat for the golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia De Vis), an endemic species of the Wet Tropics of North Queensland. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean precipitation of the wettest quarter were found to be the best habitat predictors. For independent validation data, accuracy was 67% (Kappa statistic, n=30). Past, and future habitats suitable to the golden bowerbird were mapped by altering the temperature and precipitation input to the model. In the current climate, total potential habitat is estimated to be 1564 km², occurring as a number of separate patches with distinct bowerbird subpopulations. Past habitat was most limiting, 406 km², during the Holocene climatic optimum (c. 5000-3600 YBP, +2 °C and +50% rainfall relative to today). With future warming, assuming a 10% decrease in rainfall, potential habitat is reduced to 582 km² (1 °C warming), 163 km² (2 °C warming) and 37 km² (3 °C warming). Thus, global warming in the coming decades is likely to be a significant threat to the survival of this and similar upland and highland species in the tropics.