Dynamics of a declining amphibian metapopulation: Survival, dispersal and the impact of climate

Climate can interact with population dynamics in complex ways. In this study we describe how climatic factors influenced the dynamics of an amphibian metapopulation over 12 years through interactions with survival, recruitment and dispersal. Low annual survival of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus) was related to mild winters and heavy rainfall, which impacted the metapopulation at the regional level. Consequently, survival varied between years but not between subpopulations. Despite this regional effect, the four subpopulations were largely asynchronous in their dynamics. Three out of the four subpopulations suffered reproductive failure in most years, and recruitment to the metapopulation relied on one source. Variation in recruitment and juvenile dispersal was therefore probably driving asynchrony in population dynamics. At least one subpopulation went extinct over the 12 year period. These trends are consistent with simulations of the system, which predicted that two subpopulations had an extinction risk of >50% if adult survival fell below 30% in combination with low juvenile survival. Intermittent recruitment may therefore only result in population persistence if compensated for by relatively high adult survival. Mild winters may consequently reduce the viability of amphibian metapopulations. In the face of climate change, conservation actions may be needed at the local scale to compensate for reduced adult survival. These would need to include management to enhance recruitment, connectivity and dispersal.     

Future habitat loss and the conservation of plant biodiversity

Rapid land-use and climate changes are projected to cause broad-scale global land-cover transformation that will increase species extinction rates. We assessed the exposure of globally threatened plant biodiversity to future habitat loss over the first half of this century by testing country-level associations between threatened plant species richness and future habitat loss owing to land-use and climate changes, separately. In countries overlapping Biodiversity Hotspots, plant species endangerment increases with climate change-driven habitat loss. This association suggests that many currently threatened plant species will become extinct owing to anthropogenic climate change in the absence of potentially mitigating factors such as natural and assisted range shift, and physiological and genetic adaptations. Countries rich in threatened species, which are also projected to have relatively high total future habitat loss, are concentrated around the equator. Because poverty and poor governance can compromise conservation, we considered the economic condition and quality of governance with the degree of plant species endangerment and future habitat loss to prioritize countries based on conservation need. We identified Angola, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Laos, Madagascar, Myanmar, Nepal, Tajikistan, and Tanzania as the countries in greatest need of conservation assistance. For conservation endeavors to be effective, the conservation capacity of these high-need countries needs to be improved by assisting political stability and economic sustainability. We make policy recommendations that aim to mitigate climate change, promote plant species conservation, and improve the economic conditions and quality of governance in countries with high conservation need.     

Just passing through: Global change and the conservation of biodiversity in protected areas

Climate and land-use changes are expected to cause many species to shift into or beyond the boundaries of protected areas, leading to large turnover in species composition. Here, we tested whether long-established protected areas in Canada were more robust to such climate change impacts than areas with no formal protection by measuring changes in modeled butterfly species distributions (n = 139) within them. We used a recently established distribution modeling technique, Maxent, to model butterfly species’ distributions in two epochs (1900-1930 and 1960-1990). We compared rates of butterfly species richness and composition change within protected areas against distributions of randomly selected, ecologically similar, but non-protected, areas. Change in species richness and composition within protected areas were, for the most part, the same as changes observed among random areas outside protected area boundaries. These results suggest that existing protected area networks in Canada have provided little buffer against the impacts of climate change on butterfly species richness, possibly because land-use change surrounding long-standing protected areas has not been substantial enough to elevate the habitat protection afforded by these protected areas relative to other areas. Although protected areas are unarguably beneficial in conserving biological diversity, their capacity to maintain habitat appears insufficient to prevent broader-scale climate changes from sweeping species beyond their boundaries.     

Optimising biodiversity assessments by volunteers: The application of occupancy modelling to large-scale amphibian surveys

Mobilising volunteers to carry out biodiversity assessments can help to identify priorities for conservation across broad geographical scales. However, even when volunteers carry out simple presence-absence surveys, there can be significant issues over false absences and subsequent data interpretation. Simple but scientifically robust protocols are therefore required for these programmes. Here we evaluate amphibian survey protocols for the National Amphibian and Reptile Recording Scheme (NARRS) in Britain, which aims to assess the status of five widespread amphibian species. Surveys were undertaken by trained volunteers and researchers in two contrasting landscapes over 2 years, and occupancy modelling was used to determine covariates of detection, and to optimise the number of surveys and number of methods required. Although surveys need to take into account seasonal and annual changes in the detectability of different species, there were also landscape effects. Frogs and toads were generally harder to detect in ponds in Kent than in Wales, while the converse was true of newts. Adding bottle-trapping to the suite of methods increased the detection of smooth and palmate newts in both areas, and of great crested newts in Wales. Overall, reliable assessment of the presence or absence of all five species at a site required four separate surveys, each using four different methods (visual encounter surveys during both day and night, dip netting and bottle-trapping). Our approach may prove useful for finding the best compromises between rigor and simplicity when volunteers are used in large-scale surveys.     

Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming

A generalised linear model was used to predict climatically suitable habitat for the golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia De Vis), an endemic species of the Wet Tropics of North Queensland. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean precipitation of the wettest quarter were found to be the best habitat predictors. For independent validation data, accuracy was 67% (Kappa statistic, n=30). Past, and future habitats suitable to the golden bowerbird were mapped by altering the temperature and precipitation input to the model. In the current climate, total potential habitat is estimated to be 1564 km², occurring as a number of separate patches with distinct bowerbird subpopulations. Past habitat was most limiting, 406 km², during the Holocene climatic optimum (c. 5000-3600 YBP, +2 °C and +50% rainfall relative to today). With future warming, assuming a 10% decrease in rainfall, potential habitat is reduced to 582 km² (1 °C warming), 163 km² (2 °C warming) and 37 km² (3 °C warming). Thus, global warming in the coming decades is likely to be a significant threat to the survival of this and similar upland and highland species in the tropics.     

Distribution and environmental limitations of an amphibian pathogen in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Amphibian populations continue to be imperiled by the chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Understanding where B. dendrobatidis (Bd) occurs and how it may be limited by environmental factors is critical to our ability to effectively conserve the amphibians affected by Bd. We sampled 1247 amphibians (boreal toads and surrogates) at 261 boreal toad (Bufo boreas) breeding sites (97 clusters) along an 11° latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains to determine the distribution of B. dendrobatidis and examine environmental factors, such as temperature and elevation, that might affect its distribution. The fungus was detected at 64% of all clusters and occurred across a range of elevations (1030-3550 m) and latitudes (37.6-48.6°) but we detected it in only 42% of clusters in the south (site elevations higher), compared to 84% of clusters in the north (site elevations lower). Maximum ambient temperature (daily high) explained much of the variation in Bd occurrence in boreal toad populations and thus perhaps limits the occurrence of the pathogen in the Rocky Mountains to areas where climatic conditions facilitate optimal growth of the fungus. This information has implications in global climate change scenarios where warming temperatures may facilitate the spread of disease into previously un- or little-affected areas (i.e., higher elevations). This study provides the first regional-level, field-based effort to examine the relationship of environmental and geographic factors to the distribution of B. dendrobatidis in North America and will assist managers to focus on at-risk populations as determined by the local temperature regimes, latitude and elevation.     

Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservation

Climate change and habitat fragmentation are considered key pressures on biodiversity. In this paper we explore the potential synergetic effects between these factors. We argue that processes at two levels of spatial scale interact: the metapopulation level and the species range level. Current concepts of spatially dynamic metapopulations and species ranges are consistent, and integration improves our understanding of the interaction of landscape level and geographical range level processes. In landscape zones in which the degree of habitat fragmentation allows persistence, the shifting of ranges is inhibited, but not blocked. In areas where the spatial cohesion of the habitat is below the critical level of metapopulation persistence, the expansion of ranges will be blocked. An increased frequency of large-scale disturbances caused by extreme weather events will cause increasing gaps and an overall contraction of the distribution range, particularly in areas with relatively low levels of spatial cohesion. Taking into account the effects of climate change on metapopulations, habitat distribution and land use changes, future biodiversity research and conservation strategies are facing the challenge to re-orient their focus and scope by integrating spatially and conceptually more dynamic aspects at the landscape level.     

Global warming affect Collembola community: A long-term study

Long-term (1992–2002) effects of climate changes on soil Collembola in Scots pine Pinus sylvestris forests in North Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve (northern Latvia) are investigated. The study was carried out in three forest stands of different age, young (30–40 years), middle aged (50–70 years), and old (150–200 years). One hundred soil samples were collected within each sampling site once a year in autumn over a period of 11 years. In total, 66 species of Collembola were found. Species richness varied between 47 and 56 and density of Collembola from 7300 to 8300 ind m⁻². A statistically significant increase in the sums of positive air temperatures (4 °C) was recorded during the period of investigation. Precipitation and thereby soil moisture showed considerable year-to-year fluctuations. Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling of the data yielded two axes explaining 48.6% and 38.6% of the variation. Axis 1 coincided with the trend of sums of positive air temperature (r=0.66). Axis 1 corresponded best with the negative impact of warming of climate on Collembola, mainly on the euedaphic species inhabiting the deeper layers of the organic soil horizon. Axis 2 was considered reflecting the effect of soil moisture fluctuations (correlation with moisture r=-0.62) on litter dwelling, mostly hemiedaphic Collembola. Species richness tended to decrease gradually in all forest sites during the study period from 29–36 to 13–26 species. Correlation between axes (r=0.455) indicated interaction effects between positive air temperatures and soil moisture. Forest age showed no substantial effect on the community structure, therefore the changes observed cannot be explained by ecological succession.     

The amphibian chytrid fungus along an altitudinal transect before the first reported declines in Costa Rica

Amphibian populations have declined and disappeared in protected and apparently undisturbed areas around the world, especially in montane areas of the tropics. The amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been implicated in many of these declines. In Costa Rica most declines occurred in the highlands. We examined an amphibian collection made in Braulio Carrillo National Park in 1986 for the amphibian chytrid fungus B. dendrobatidis, prior to the well documented amphibian declines in Monteverde, along an altitudinal transect from 100 to 2600 m elev. Skin from the pelvic patch of 202 specimens corresponding to 30 species was examined histologically to determine whether the disease was present in the highlands of the park before amphibian populations declined. For comparison, in 2002 we collected and examined 18 specimens of seven species of Eleutherodactylus and Craugastor from two other lowland Caribbean sites. The chytrid fungus was present in almost all altitudes in 1986, including lower areas. The pathogen was also found in both species that later declined and in species that did not do so. We detected chytrid fungus on amphibians collected at almost all altitudes in 1986, including those sampled at 280 m. B. dendrobatidis was abundant in frogs collected in the 2002 survey, and seems to be endemic in most of Costa Rica. More retrospective museum surveys are needed in order to determine whether it can be found in the area before 1986.     

Global warming, elevational ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota

Tropical species with narrow elevational ranges may be thermally specialized and vulnerable to global warming. Local studies of distributions along elevational gradients reveal small-scale patterns but do not allow generalizations among geographic regions or taxa. We critically assessed data from 249 studies of species elevational distributions in the American, African, and Asia-Pacific tropics. Of these, 150 had sufficient data quality, sampling intensity, elevational range, and freedom from serious habitat disturbance to permit robust across-study comparisons. We found four main patterns: (1) species classified as elevational specialists (upper- or lower-zone specialists) are relatively more frequent in the American than Asia-Pacific tropics, with African tropics being intermediate; (2) elevational specialists are rare on islands, especially oceanic and smaller continental islands, largely due to a paucity of upper-zone specialists; (3) a relatively high proportion of plants and ectothermic vertebrates (amphibians and reptiles) are upper-zone specialists; and (4) relatively few endothermic vertebrates (birds and mammals) are upper-zone specialists. Understanding these broad-scale trends will help identify taxa and geographic regions vulnerable to global warming and highlight future research priorities.     

区域尺度作物生产力对全球变化响应的研究进展及展望

作物生产力对气候变化高度敏感,因而成为全球气候变化科学研究中的焦点问题之一。开发作物生产力的区域模型,与区域气候模式相耦合,有利于对作物生产力形成过程中的时间和空间变量进行分析,为针对各地不同的气候、土壤、作物与耕作管理条件制定适应性对策奠定基础。本文综述了作物生产力对CO2 增加和气候变化响应的研究方法,指出应用遥感、地理信息技术与作物模拟技术、高分辨率的区域气候变化模式相结合,研究区域尺度上的作物生产力及其气候变化响应是未来研究的热点和发展方向     

Turkey’s globally important biodiversity in crisis

Turkey (Türkiye) lies at the nexus of Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. Turkey’s location, mountains, and its encirclement by three seas have resulted in high terrestrial, fresh water, and marine biodiversity. Most of Turkey’s land area is covered by one of three biodiversity hotspots (Caucasus, Irano-Anatolian, and Mediterranean). Of over 9000 known native vascular plant species, one third are endemic. Turkey faces a significant challenge with regard to biodiversity and associated conservation challenges due to limited research and lack of translation into other languages of existing material. Addressing this gap is increasingly relevant as Turkey’s biodiversity faces severe and growing threats, especially from government and business interests. Turkey ranks 140th out of 163 countries in biodiversity and habitat conservation. Millennia of human activities have dramatically changed the original land and sea ecosystems of Anatolia, one of the earliest loci of human civilization. Nevertheless, the greatest threats to biodiversity have occurred since 1950, particularly in the past decade. Although Turkey’s total forest area increased by 5.9% since 1973, endemic-rich Mediterranean maquis, grasslands, coastal areas, wetlands, and rivers are disappearing, while overgrazing and rampant erosion degrade steppes and rangelands. The current “developmentalist obsession”, particularly regarding water use, threatens to eliminate much of what remains, while forcing large-scale migration from rural areas to the cities. According to current plans, Turkey’s rivers and streams will be dammed with almost 4000 dams, diversions, and hydroelectric power plants for power, irrigation, and drinking water by 2023. Unchecked urbanization, dam construction, draining of wetlands, poaching, and excessive irrigation are the most widespread threats to biodiversity. This paper aims to survey what is known about Turkey’s biodiversity, to identify the areas where research is needed, and to identify and address the conservation challenges that Turkey faces today. Preserving Turkey’s remaining biodiversity will necessitate immediate action, international attention, greater support for Turkey’s developing conservation capacity, and the expansion of a nascent Turkish conservation ethic.     

Responses of soil microarthropods to warming and increased precipitation in a semiarid temperate steppe

Soil microarthropods are an important component in soil food webs and their responses to climate change could have profound impacts on ecosystem functions. As part of a long-term manipulative experiment, with increased temperature and precipitation in a semiarid temperate steppe in the Mongolian Plateau which started in 2005, this study was conducted to examine effects of climate change on the abundance of soil microarthropods. Experimental warming had slightly negative but insignificant effects on the abundance of mites (−14.6%) and Collembola (−11.7%). Increased precipitation greatly enhanced the abundance of mites and Collembola by 117 and 45.3%, respectively. The response direction and magnitude of mites to warming and increased precipitation varied with suborder, leading to shifts in community structure. The positive relationships of mite abundance with plant cover, plant species richness, and soil microbial biomass nitrogen suggest that the responses of soil microarthropods to climate change are largely regulated by food resource availability. The findings of positive dependence of soil respiration upon mite abundance indicate that the potential contribution of soil fauna to soil CO₂ efflux should be considered when assessing carbon cycling of semiarid grassland ecosystems under climate change scenarios.     

The concept and utility of ‘ecological thresholds’ in biodiversity conservation

In the life and natural sciences, the concept of thresholds or points or zones of change from one state to another has been investigated since the late 18th century. Over the past three decades, ecologists and economists around the world have been examining the existence and use of ‘ecological thresholds’ in natural and modified systems, primarily as a conceptual basis for the development of tools to conserve and sustainably manage natural resources. In Australia, there has been a recent renewed interest in the definition and application of ecological thresholds in the conservation of threatened fauna and flora, modelling the impact of habitat loss, modification and fragmentation on terrestrial biota, management of pest plant and animal species, and development of natural resource management policies and plans. This paper reviews the threshold concept from an ecological perspective. It considers the definition, types and behaviour of this phenomenon. The theoretical and empirical evidence for their purported existence is reviewed and their potential utility in biodiversity conservation and natural resource management is discussed, along with key issues relating to their use.     

Projected impacts of global warming on cropping calendar and water requirement of maize in a humid climate

In this research, the influence of climate change on maize cultivation was investigated and then, the possible solutions for adopting this natural hazard in the coasts of Caspian Sea in Iran was assessed. Weather data were generated for the 2011–2100 period using a statistical downscaling model under different climatic scenarios. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was calculated using a Neuro-fuzzy inference system. Cop water requirement was calculated by multiplying ETo by crop coefficients. Increased cardinal temperatures during 2011–2100 led to shifting in the planting date backward by 10–26 days. In addition, the projected global warming has a considerable effect on the duration of the vegetative growth stage resulting in earlier harvesting. However, the duration of the reproductive stage is less affected. Despite the obvious reduction in the length of the growing season, crop water requirement will increase by 10.6–15.3% in the future due to 1.64–28.4% increase in ETo. However, changing the cultivation time may lead to 11.2–264.5 m³ ha^?1 water saving during the whole cropping cycle through affecting both ETo and the crop growth cycle. This result demonstrates that management of the maize cropping calendar can be an effective way to achieve sustainable agriculture under future climate conditions in the study area.     

Human land use and patterns of parasitism in tropical amphibian hosts

Landscape alterations by humans can change patterns of parasite transmission. Depending on the type alteration and the life histories of parasites and hosts, parasitism may increase or decrease. To investigate whether parasitism in tropical amphibians was associated with land use change, I studied three species of amphibians, Rana vaillanti, Eleutherodactylus fitzingeri, and Smilisca puma from the Province of Heredia, Costa Rica, in the Atlantic lowlands. Frogs were collected and examined for parasites during the rainy seasons of 2001-2003 from sites in forest or clear-cut cattle pastures. The abundances of five species of parasites and parasite species richness of R. vaillanti were significantly higher in pasture habitat. A single parasite species shared by E. fitzingeri and S. puma showed a trend of increased abundance in pasture habitats. Overall, the abundances of six parasite species (three trematodes, an intestinal nematode, an encysted nematode, and a filarial nematode) were higher in pastures, while two species (trematodes) were higher in forest. This study suggests that land use activities in tropical regions affects the abundance and richness of amphibian parasites. Converting forest to pasture may impact the abundance of amphibian parasites because subsequent water quality changes (e.g. eutrophication, higher pH) often enhance habitat and resources for intermediate hosts (e.g. snails, mosquitoes) involved in parasite life cycles. Aquatic amphibians (e.g. R. vaillanti) may be particularly prone to experiencing increases in parasitism in agricultural habitats due to the positive relationship between many aquatic intermediate hosts and water quality changes associated with agricultural land use.     

Effects of long-term soil warming and fertilisation on microarthropod abundances in three sub-arctic ecosystems

Soil microarthropod responses to long-term soil warming and increased fertilisation by addition of NKP or litter were assessed in three subarctic ecosystems. The experiment was carried out at three different field sites, where temperature and fertilisation manipulations had been running for 3–5 years (glade), 11 years (fellfield), and 12 years (heath) at the time of sampling. In the glade soil, warming led to decreases in Collembola and Gamasida, and increases in Oribatida, although effects were inconsistent between years. Actinedida densities were increased by fertilization, while Acaridida had higher densities in the treatment with both fertilisation and warming. In the fellfield, we found increased densities of Oribatida, Gamasida and Actinedida in the fertilised treatments, and some increases in Oribatida and decreases in Collembola and Gamasida in warming treatments. In the heath, there were increased densities of Collembola, Oribatida and Actinedida in the fertilised treatments, but we found no strong effects of warming. We suggest that the responses found in this study comply with the assumption that soil microarthropods are bottom-up controlled, and the observed changes are probably linked to changes in food availability more than direct climatic influences.     

Biocrusts modulate warming and rainfall exclusion effects on soil respiration in a semi-arid grassland

Soil surface communities composed of cyanobacteria, algae, mosses, liverworts, fungi, bacteria and lichens (biocrusts) largely affect soil respiration in dryland ecosystems. Climate change is expected to have large effects on biocrusts and associated ecosystem processes. However, few studies so far have experimentally assessed how expected changes in temperature and rainfall will affect soil respiration in biocrust-dominated ecosystems. We evaluated the impacts of biocrust development, increased air temperature and decreased precipitation on soil respiration dynamics during dry (2009) and wet (2010) years, and investigated the relative importance of soil temperature and moisture as environmental drivers of soil respiration, in a semiarid grassland from central Spain. Soil respiration rates were significantly lower in the dry than in the wet year, regardless of biocrust cover. Warming increased soil respiration rates, but this response was only significant in biocrust-dominated areas (>50% biocrust cover). Warming also increased the temperature sensitivity (Q₁₀ values) of soil respiration in biocrust-dominated areas, particularly during the wet year. The combination of warming and rainfall exclusion had similar effects in low biocrust cover areas. Our results highlight the importance of biocrusts as a modulator of soil respiration responses to both warming and rainfall exclusion, and indicate that they must be explicitly considered when evaluating soil respiration responses to climate change in drylands.     

Birds in eucalypt and pine forests: landscape alteration and its implications for research models of faunal habitat use

Most studies of faunal habitat fragmentation are based on a human perspective of the landscape in which landscape elements are classified as habitat and non-habitat. Moreover, many landscape models that define “habitat patches” assume that the same set of patches will be suitable for all taxa or a broad range of taxa. McIntyre and Hobbs [Conservation Biology 13 (1999) 1282] recently proposed a model in which landscapes can be classified according to the amount of habitat remaining and in which the remaining habitat can correspond to a continuum or gradient of modification. The perception of a landscape as being intact, variegated, fragmented or relictual [sensu Conservation Biology 13 (1999)] will depend on the capacity of individual species to utilise modified habitat. We suggest that although the continuum concept of habitat use is reasonably well established for plants, faunal studies have often ignored the notion of a gradient of habitat use and have classified landscape areas simplistically and inappropriately as either habitat or non-habitat. Data on birds in southeastern Australia are used to illustrate how the binary view of habitat can be incorrect. Birds were sampled in landscapes that ranged from intact to relictual as defined from an anthropocentric perspective. Our data: (1) illustrated a wide range of bird responses to habitat modification including many that might have been overlooked using a simple binomial approach to habitat classification, and (2) highlighted the fact that the way in which humans perceive landscapes may not correspond to how some elements of the biota perceive the same landscape. Viewing landscapes as a species-specific gradient of states of remaining habitat and condition has important implications for undertaking studies of human impacts on biodiversity and also integrating conservation considerations in production environments. It also challenges the effectiveness of “quick fixes” such as species-based biodiversity surrogates schemes and the uncritical use of generic landscape indices to save “habitat” because the assumption that all species will conform to the same landscape pattern will not hold.