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1.
Sampling design influences the accuracy and confidence that an investigator can place on the information derived from a data set. This study was undertaken to quantify the influence of systematic and random sample designs on the estimation of stubble height. Variance estimates, data set range, adequate sample size, and relative variation were greater with the systematic sampling design, and mean estimates were lower when compared with estimates derived from a random sampling design.  相似文献   

2.
OBJECTIVE: To identify herd characteristics and management practices associated with bulk-tank somatic cell counts (BTSCC) in dairy herds in Ohio enrolled in official Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA) programs. SAMPLE POPULATION: 186 dairies in Ohio. PROCEDURE: All herds in official DHIA programs in 9 counties were asked to participate. Extensive information regarding herd characteristics and management practices was obtained, using a standardized questionnaire. Bulk-tank milk samples were requested from all participating herds for bacterial culture. Official DHIA test-day records for January 1997 were obtained from all herds enrolled in official DHIA programs in the 9 counties. Potential associations were identified, using multivariable ANOVA. RESULTS: Participation was 186 of 479 (39%) herds. Streptococcus agalactiae and Mycoplasma spp were not isolated from bulk-tank milk samples. Staphylococcus aureus was isolated from 64 of 172 (37%) of the herds. The BTSCC were inversely associated with peak daily milk production, postmilking teat disinfection, percentage of eligible cows in the herd detected in estrus, and directly related to the extent to which BTSCC was perceived as a herd problem during the preceding 2 years. Type of housing for nonlactating cows and product used for treatment of nonlactating cows also were significantly associated with BTSCC. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Consideration of herd characteristics and implementation of management practices associated with BTSCC could result in increased milk yield and production of milk with lower BTSCC.  相似文献   

3.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the epidemiologic and financial impacts of targeted sampling of subpopulations of cows, compared with random sampling of all cows, for classification of dairy herd infection status for paratuberculosis. ANIMALS: All cows from 4 infected herds with a low-to-moderate prevalence of paratuberculosis and from 1 noninfected herd in California. PROCEDURE: The infection status of each cow was classified on the basis of results of an ELISA or combined ELISA and fecal culture results. Thirteen sampling schemes designed to randomly sample cows on the basis of lactation number, stage of lactation, and milk production were evaluated. Sampling without replacement was used to obtain a probability of herd detection of paratuberculosis for each evaluated sampling method and for simulated sample sizes between 30 and 150 cows. Marginal cost-effectiveness analysis was used to determine the cost increase relative to the increase in detection probability. RESULTS: Sampling cows in the third or higher lactation and > or = 200 days into lactation yielded the highest detection probability in most instances, resulting in a detection probability that was 1.4 to 2.5 times that obtained by sampling 30 cows in the second or higher lactation. Costs of testing via the alternative method with a 95% detection probability were approximately dollar 300 lower in a high-prevalence herd (31%) and dollar 800 lower in a low-prevalence herd (9%), compared with use of the reference method. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Detection of herds with paratuberculosis could be improved, and costs of testing substantially reduced by sampling targeted groups of cows.  相似文献   

4.
OBJECTIVE: To determine herd characteristics and management practices associated with milk production in dairy herds enrolled in official Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA) programs in Ohio. SAMPLE POPULATION: 186 dairy farms in Ohio. PROCEDURE: All herds in official DHIA programs in 9 counties were invited to participate. Information regarding herd characteristics and management practices was obtained, using a standardized questionnaire. Bulk-tank milk samples were obtained for bacteriologic culture. Official DHIA test-day records were obtained, and associations were identified, using multivariable ANOVA procedures. RESULTS: Of 479 eligible producers, 186 (39%) participated, and consecutive bulk-tank milk samples were available for culture from 172 (36%). Streptococcus agalactiae and Mycoplasma spp were not recovered from bulk-tank milk samples, but Staphylococcus aureus was recovered from 64 (37%) herds. Mean (+/- SD) number of lactating cows in participating herds was 97+/-66, with 123 (66%) herds milking < 100 cows. The RHA was significantly associated with number of cows in milk, estimated percentage of herd detected in estrus, reported annual percentage of heifer calves born alive that died before 8 weeks old, percentage days in milk, use of bovine somatotropin during the preceding 2 years, and sex of the person completing the questionnaire. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In this study, the strongest indicator of milk production was number of cows in milk. However, merely adding cows to a herd should not be considered to guarantee increased milk production, because other management traits could be confounded with increased number of cows in a herd.  相似文献   

5.
For the eradication of an infectious agent, like bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV-1), surveillance and certification can be used to reduce the transmission between herds. The goal of surveillance is that a certified herd that becomes infected is detected timely so that infection of several other certified herds is prevented. What counts is whether the reproduction ratio R, i.e. the average number of certified herds infected by one infected certified herd can be kept below 1. To support policy makers in making decisions about the minimal demands for a surveillance programme in an eradication campaign of BHV-1 in cattle, two mathematical models were investigated. With these models, the basic reproduction ratio between herds was calculated. The surveillance programmes were characterised with sample size, sampling frequency, test sensitivity, herd size, vaccination status, and contacts between herds. When R between herds is below 1, then the surveillance programme is sufficiently good to prevent spread of infection, provided that R is estimated well. In the model based on bulk milk testing sample size was replaced by a threshold at which bulk milk can be found positive. The R between herds was mainly influenced by the vaccination status, sampling frequency, and contacts between herds. Herd size moderately affected the outcome. Test sensitivity and sample size, however, were of minor importance. If herds of 50 cows became free of BHV-1 without vaccination, then spread of infection between herds might be prevented when animals within herds are sampled once a year (milk or blood samples). This frequency needs to be intensified, being twice a year, for larger herds and/or herds with extensive contacts with other herds. When bulk milk is sampled instead, sampling should be done at least every 5 months and more intensively, being each month, with larger herd sizes and more contacts between herds.  相似文献   

6.
The objective of the study was to estimate the losses associated with subclinical mastitis (SCM) in crossbred dairy cows in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia. A split udder investigation was performed with 30 cows to determine production losses associated with SCM. Each quarter of the study cows was examined using the California Mastitis Test (CMT) and quarter milk production was measured over a period of 8 days. Production losses were determined for different CMT scores by comparing production of quarters with CMT score 0 to quarters with CMT scores trace, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Using data from a recently published study, economic losses were determined for different farm sizes and production subsystems by multiplying the prevalence of the respective CMT scores with the production losses associated with these CMT scores. Mean quarter milk production was 0.82 + 0.40 kg per milking in the split udder trial. Milk production was reduced by 1.2%, 6.3%, and 33% in quarters with CMT scores 1+, 2+, and 3+, respectively. Using data from the published study, a quarter with SCM lost an average of 17.2% of its milk production. Production losses associated with SCM were estimated at 5.6% for the Addis Ababa Milk Shed. Stratified losses were highest (9.3%) in urban dairy farms (UDF) and small-scale farms (6.3%). The estimates of the financial losses ranged from US$29.1 in dairy herds in secondary towns (DHIST) to US$66.6 in UDF. A total loss of US$38 was estimated for each cow per lactation. Reducing mastitis in UDF (highest prevalence) to the level of DHIST (lowest prevalence) could reduce the loss by US$35. As this does not include costs associated with treatment or culling of diseased cows, this figure probably underestimates the possible benefits of control measures.  相似文献   

7.
The objectives of this study were to: (1) characterize Minnesota dairy herds participating in a Johne's disease control program (JDCP) based on herd size, milk production, and clinical Johne's disease (JD) history, (2) evaluate if change in farm management practices, expressed in risk assessment (RA) total score, is associated with the change between the first and most recent ELISA test herd seroprevalence or change in clinical JD culling rate, and (3) identify farm factors associated with ELISA seroprevalence. A total of 1234 RA, performed between January 2000 and February 2004, were available for analysis from 714 dairy herds. ELISA test results from herd sampling between 2000 and 2004 were obtained from the Minnesota board of animal health (MBAH) database, and were available for 474 herds. Both the first and the most recent ELISA test results for herds with more than one RA were available for 262 herds. Mean herd size and mean annual milk production per cow was higher in JDCP dairy herds (161 milking cows) than either all Minnesota dairy herds or Minnesota dairy herd improvement association (DHIA) herds. For herds with more than one RA available, the most recent RA total score was significantly lower (mean 11% less) than the first. The change in RA total score (and any RA subtotal scores) between the first and most recent RA was not associated with the change between the first and the most recent ELISA within-herd seroprevalence or the change in JD culling rate between the first and most recent RA. The most recent ELISA test results were positively associated with postweaned heifer score and JD culling rate. The RA score was not found to be an effective tool for the prediction of ELISA seroprevalence.  相似文献   

8.
A newly developed milk dot blot test was used to detect anti-bovine leukaemia virus (BLV) antibody in milk samples from 2079 lactating adult cows from among 61 herds. The milk dot blot test was highly repeatable; the concordance rate, compared with the agar gel immunodiffusion test performed on serum, was 83.5%. All herds contained BLV-positive cows; the prevalence rate was 36%. BLV-positive cows tended to come from larger herds and were older and more often later in lactation. Fourteen production and related variables (herd size, age, days open, days in milk, milk somatic cell count, milk, fat, and protein produced in the current lactation, projected production of milk, fat, and protein, and breed class average deviations for milk, fat, and protein) were compared between BLV-positive and BLV-negative cows. Although somatic cell count, milk produced, and projected production of milk and protein were related significantly to BLV status using simple tests of association, once the variables herd size, age and days in milk were controlled, these differences were removed. Further analyses using logistic (outcome: individual cow BLV status) and least-squares regression (outcome:herd proportion of BLV-positive cows) failed to show an association between any of the measured production or related variables and BLV-positivity. We concluded that the effect of BLV on production and related variables in dairy cows was below the sensitivity of our analytical techniques or was non-existent.Abbreviations ABCA herd average breed class average for milk, fat, and protein production - AVGAGE average age of the herd - ADIM herd average for days in milk - AGID agar gel immunodiffusion - AVGSCC herd average milk somatic cell count - BCA breed class average, a milk, fat and protein production index calculated by comparing a cow's actual 305-day lactation production to the corresponding BCA standard for the same breed, age, and month of calving - BLV bovine leukaemia virus - CALVINT calving interval - COWAGE cow age - DBCA breed class average deviation for milk, fat, and protein production, the difference between an individual cow's BCA and the herd average - DIM days in milk - HS herd size corresponding to the number of lactating cows in a herd - LACT actual amount of milk, fat, and protein produced in a cow's lactation - ODHIC Ontario Dairy Herd Improvement Corporation - PCTPOS percentage of herd that is BLV-positive - PROJ projected 305-day production for milk, fat, and protein by fitting to a standard lactation curve adjusted for days in milk and age at calving - RHBCA rolling herd average for breed class average for milk, fat, and protein production, the average for all cows that completed a lactation (cows must have completed a 305-day lactation) during the previous 12 months - SCC milk somatic cell count  相似文献   

9.
We quantified the effect of Neospora caninum (NC)-serostatus on culling and (re)production in 83 herds randomly selected from the Dutch dairy herd population (random group) and in 17 herds that had experienced an abortion epidemic associated with NC infection (epidemic-abortion group). In the random group, a single whole-herd blood sampling was done during the spring of 2003, while in the epidemic-abortion group whole-herd blood sampling was done repeatedly at least once a year starting after the abortion epidemic during the period 1997–2000 until the summer of 2004. Serological test-results for NC were given as ‘negative’ (N), ‘low-positive’ (LP) and ‘high-positive’ (HP). For analysing the time to culling, calving interval and age of first calving, survival analysis was used. For categorical reproduction parameters either a logistic-regression model (abortion, non-return after 1st insemination) or a Poisson-regression model (number of inseminations per pregnancy) was used. For milk production a linear-mixed model was used. All models were controlled, if applicable, for confounding variables like parity, production, season, year and abortion and adjusted for within-herd clustering.

In random herds, HP serostatus increased the hazard for culling 1.73-fold (95% CI: 1.37–2.19) compared to N and LP serostatus. Compared to N serostatus, LP and HP serostatus in epidemic-abortion herds increased the odds for abortion 1.88-fold (95% CI: 1.41–2.52) and 1.72-fold (95% CI: 1.38–2.14), respectively. No other reproduction parameters were associated with NC-serostatus in the random or epidemic-abortion herds. We found no effect of serostatus on milk production in the random group. In contrast, milk production of LP and HP serostatus in the epidemic-abortion group was respectively, 0.72 kg milk/day (95% CI: 0.15–1.03) and 0.59 kg milk/day (95% CI: 0.13–1.30), less during the first 100 days of lactation in the first year after the abortion epidemic compared with N serostatus.  相似文献   


10.
We evaluated selenium determination of bulk milk tank samples as an alternative to testing blood selenium for evaluating herd selenium status in DHIA dairy herds in the San Joaquin Valley of California. A method of determining milk selenium levels using inductively coupled plasma spectrometry is described. Mean bulk tank milk selenium levels were 0.0224 mg/L (Range 0.0126-0.0418 mg/L). No statistically significant relationships were found between bulk tank milk selenium levels of a herd and calving interval, days open or log somatic cell counts. Mean herd blood and milk levels were directly proportional to bulk tank milk selenium levels. Within a herd milk selenium levels of a cow were directly proportional to the cow's blood selenium level. Herd selenium levels were not significantly related to soil selenium levels. Determination of bulk tank milk selenium levels has the potential to be a low cost, non-invasive means of evaluating herd selenium levels in order to determine selenium deficiency. Further studies with this technique in areas which are deficient in selenium may provide estimates of the sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of bulk milk tank selenium for determining selenium deficiency in dairy herds.  相似文献   

11.
Staphylococcal isolates from 135 raw milk samples obtained from settled herds (42) and nomadic herds (93), were characterized and assayed for enterotoxin production. Of the 42 samples from settled herds, 13 (31%) were California Mastitis Test (CMT)-positive, but all the samples contained staphylococci. Only 3 (3.2%) of the 93 raw milk samples from nomadic herds were CMT-positive but 58 (62.4%) contained staphylococci. Of the 13 isolates from CMT-positive milk obtained from settled herds, one produced enterotoxin A, while amongst the 29 from CMT-positive milk, 4 elaborated enterotoxin A and 3 produced type D. None of the isolates from milk obtained from nomadic herds was enterotoxigenic.  相似文献   

12.
The health and housing of the stock on 26 organic dairy herds in four counties in eastern Sweden were studied for one year. The herds ranged in size from 12 to 64 cows, and their milk production from 3772 to 10,334 kg per cow per year. A large-animal practitioner visited the farms three times during the year, and a random sample of a third of the cows in each herd were examined. The calves and young stock and their housing were also studied. The calves were in good condition in all but four herds; their serum immunoglobulins varied from almost none to high levels. The young stock were in good condition and in good housing in 20 herds. No cows with clinical signs of metabolic disorders were found. Body condition scores were adequate or good except in two herds. Acetone was analysed in milk samples from individual cows three to six weeks postpartum, and only sporadic cases with high levels were found. The incidence of diseases treated by a veterinarian was lower in the organic herds than the average for the conventional herds in the local dairy association. The findings at the farm visits supported these data, and it is evident that a good standard of health and welfare can be achieved in organic dairy herds.  相似文献   

13.
The estimated allele frequency at neutral DNA marker loci is a fundamental parameter for establishing a conservation scheme for a set of livestock breeds. In this study, we propose a novel 'minimum distance (MD) method' for estimating neutral allele frequencies, which minimizes the error by the use of pedigree information. Using computer simulation and actual microsatellite data for a pedigreed cattle population, the performance of the proposed method was compared with that of conventional random sampling (RND). MD manifests a promising superiority to RND, irrespective of the sample size and the depth of pedigree. It is theoretically demonstrated that the error of the estimates depends on both the sample size and the distance of founder allele frequencies between the sampled and the non-sampled individuals. MD samples individuals so as to minimize the latter source of estimation error.  相似文献   

14.
Statistically defensible information on vegetation conditions is needed to guide rangeland management decisions following disturbances such as wildfire, often for heterogeneous pastures. Here we evaluate sampling effort needed to achieve a robust statistical threshold using > 2 000 plots sampled on the 2015 Soda Fire that burned across 75 pastures and 113 000 ha in Idaho and Oregon. We predicted that the number of plots required to generate a threshold of standard error/mean ≤ 0.2 (TSR, threshold sampling requirement) for plant cover within pasture units would vary between sampling methods (rapid ocular versus grid-point intercept) and among plot sizes (1, 6, or 531 m2), as well as relative to topography, elevation, pasture size, spatial complexity of soils, vegetation treatments (herbicide or seeding), and dominance by exotic annual or perennial grasses. Sampling was adequate for determining exotic annual and perennial grass cover in about half of the pastures. A tradeoff in number versus size of plots sampled was apparent, whereby TSR was attainable with less area searched using smaller plot sizes (1 compared with 531 m2) in spite of less variability between larger plots. TSR for both grass types decreased as their dominance increased (0.5–1.5 plots per % cover increment). TSR decreased for perennial grass but increased for exotic annual grass with higher elevations. TSR increased with standard deviation of elevation for perennial grass sampled with grid-point intercept. Sampling effort could be more reliably predicted from landscape variables for the grid-point compared with the ocular sampling method. These findings suggest that adjusting the number and size of sample plots within a pasture or burn area using easily determined landscape variables could increase monitoring efficiency and effectiveness.  相似文献   

15.
We propose a semi-parametric model for lactation curves that, along with stage of lactation, accounts for day of the year at milk recording and stage of gestation. Lactation is described as having 3 different phases defined by 2 change points of which the second is a function of gestation stage. Season of milk recording is modelled using cosine and sine functions. As an application, the model is used to estimate the association between intramammary infections (IMI) dynamics as measured by somatic cell count (SCC) over the dry period and the shape of the lactation curve. Milk recording data collected in 2128 herds from England and Wales between 2004 and 2007 were used in the analysis. From a random sample of 1000 of these herds, smoothed milk production was used to test the behaviour of the model and estimate model parameters. The first change point was set at 60 days in milk. The second change point was set at 100 days of gestation or 200 days in milk when the latter was not available. Using data from the 1128 remaining herds, multilevel models were then used to model individual test-day milk production within lactations within herds. Average milk production at 60 days in milk for cows of parities 1, 2, 3 and greater than 3 were 26.9 kg, 31.6 kg, 34.4 kg and 34.7 kg respectively and, after this stage, decreases in milk production per 100 days milk of lactation were 3.1 kg, 5.1 kg, 6.3 kg and 6.7 kg respectively. Compared to cows that had an SCC below 200,000 cells/mL on both the last milk recording in a lactation and the first milk recording in the following lactation, cows that had an SCC greater than 200,000 cells/mL on their first milk recording after calving had an estimated loss of milk production of between 216 and 518 kg depending on parity. These estimates demonstrate the impact of the dynamics of SCC during the dry period on milk production during the following lactation.  相似文献   

16.
Multiple‐trait and random regression models have multiplied the number of equations needed for the estimation of variance components. To avoid inversion or decomposition of a large coefficient matrix, we propose estimation of variance components by Monte Carlo expectation maximization restricted maximum likelihood (MC EM REML) for multiple‐trait linear mixed models. Implementation is based on full‐model sampling for calculating the prediction error variances required for EM REML. Performance of the analytical and the MC EM REML algorithm was compared using a simulated and a field data set. For field data, results from both algorithms corresponded well even with one MC sample within an MC EM REML round. The magnitude of the standard errors of estimated prediction error variances depended on the formula used to calculate them and on the MC sample size within an MC EM REML round. Sampling variation in MC EM REML did not impair the convergence behaviour of the solutions compared with analytical EM REML analysis. A convergence criterion that takes into account the sampling variation was developed to monitor convergence for the MC EM REML algorithm. For the field data set, MC EM REML proved far superior to analytical EM REML both in computing time and in memory need.  相似文献   

17.
Prevalence of udder infections and mastitis in 50 California dairy herds   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
The California mastitis test (CMT) and bacteriologic culture were performed on samples of bulk-tank milk and cow-composite milk (n = 23,138 cows) from 50 California dairies, 19 of the 50 with known mastitis problems. Thirty-eight (76.0%) bulk-tank milk samples and 12,334 (53.3%) cows were positive by results of the CMT. Potential mastitis agents were isolated from 5,085 (22%) cows. Staphylococcus aureus was isolated from all 50 herds, Streptococcus agalactiae was isolated from 47 herds, and Mycoplasma sp was isolated from 24 herds. For cow-composite milk samples, the prevalences were 9.3% for Str agalactiae, 9.1% for S aureus, 0.9% for Mycoplasma sp, 1.2% for coliform bacteria, 0.9% for other streptococci, 0.8% for coagulase-negative staphylococci, and 1.3% for other organisms. The relative sensitivity and the relative specificity of the CMT performed on cow-composite milk samples were 83.4% and 55.2%, respectively, and the predictive value of positive CMT results was 34.2%.  相似文献   

18.
Dairy herds in Ohio were selected by stratified random sampling for participation in a disease-monitoring study to relate Streptococcus agalactiae intramammary prevalence to herd management and environmental conditions. Of 48 herds studied, 27 herds had at least 1 cow infected with this pathogen. Management and environmental conditions were assessed by direct observation as well as by an interview with the dairy producers. One-way ANOVA or chi 2 analysis, with presence or absence of Streptococcus agalactiae as the dependent variable, was used to test each of 70 independent variables. Variables found significant at P less than 0.20 were further evaluated by use of logistic regression. Our sample size permitted only 4 independent variables to be simultaneously evaluated by logistic regression. The most predictive risk factors were identified as poor teat and udder hygiene, poor environmental sanitation, large herd population, and use of a shared washcloth for premilking cleaning of teats and udders.  相似文献   

19.
An epidemiological study was carried out to determine the herd prevalence of Chlamydophila abortus and Coxiella burnetii antibodies in goats covered by a milk recording program in Poland. The survey took place in 2007 and 48 herds located in different parts of the country were involved. A representative sample from each herd was taken by a simple random sampling allowing to detect seropositivity of a herd on a 95% level of confidence. In total 918 goats were tested for specific antibodies against both germs with the use of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. In addition, history of reproductive failures was recorded in these herds. The survey revealed that the herd prevalence of C. abortus was 4.2% (2 herds) while no C. burnetii antibodies were found. Abortions were reported to be a problem in 80% of herds while repeating estrus was encountered in 46% of herds. Reproductive failure concerned two seropositive herds as well. Since the germ is present in the population, it has to be taken into consideration in diagnostic process. Nevertheless, the results of the present study indicate that C. abortus infection occurs infrequently in Polish goats. As no antibodies against C. burnetii were detected in the screened sample the risk of goat-to-human transmission of both bacteria in Poland seems to be very low.  相似文献   

20.
A multiplicative random regression (M-RRM) test-day (TD) model was used to analyse daily milk yields from all available parities of German and Austrian Simmental dairy cattle. The method to account for heterogeneous variance (HV) was based on the multiplicative mixed model approach of Meuwissen. The variance model for the heterogeneity parameters included a fixed region x year x month x parity effect and a random herd x test-month effect with a within-herd first-order autocorrelation between test-months. Acceleration of variance model solutions after each multiplicative model cycle enabled fast convergence of adjustment factors and reduced total computing time significantly. Maximum Likelihood estimation of within-strata residual variances was enhanced by inclusion of approximated information on loss in degrees of freedom due to estimation of location parameters. This improved heterogeneity estimates for very small herds. The multiplicative model was compared with a model that assumed homogeneous variance. Re-estimated genetic variances, based on Mendelian sampling deviations, were homogeneous for the M-RRM TD model but heterogeneous for the homogeneous random regression TD model. Accounting for HV had large effect on cow ranking but moderate effect on bull ranking.  相似文献   

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