Probability of and risk factors for introduction of infectious diseases into Dutch SPF dairy farms: a cohort study

A 2-year cohort study was conducted to investigate the probability of disease introduction into Dutch dairy farms. The farms were tested regularly for diseases and were visited biannually to collect management data. Ninety-five specific pathogen-free (SPF) dairy farms were selected from a database of bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1)-free farms to study the probability of, and risk factors for, introduction of BHV1, bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serotype Dublin (S. dublin), and Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo (L. hardjo).Although most of the 95 SPF farms had a low risk on introduction of infectious diseases, one disease was introduced into 12 farms and two diseases were introduced into one farm. Three farms experienced an outbreak of BHV1, one farm an outbreak of L. hardjo, two farms BVDV, six farms S. dublin, and one farm both BHV1 and S. dublin. The total incidence rate was 0.09 (0.06-0.12) per herd-year at risk. The results suggest that the "non-outbreak" farms were significantly more closed than the "outbreak" farms. Direct animal contacts with other cattle should be avoided and professional visitors should be instructed to wear protective clothing before handling cattle.     

An outbreak of bovine ephemeral fever in Nagasaki Prefecture in 1988

In October, 1988, bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) occurred in Nagasaki Prefecture and throughout Kyushu island, with the exception Miyazaki Prefecture. The first outbreak occurred in Hirado-shi on October 17. The total number of diseased cattle was 24 in 24 farms in Nagasaki Prefecture. The clinical findings were mainly sudden fever, anorexia, and instability in standing. The serum neutralizing antibodies against BEF virus (BEFV) rose in all infected cattle. Twelve strains of the virus were isolated in HmLu-1 cell cultures made directly from the heparinized blood of 17 infected cattle. The buffy coat was mainly collected from the samples and washed three times with phosphate buffered saline. These isolates were all neutralized by an antiserum against BEFV (Yamaguchi strain). With the aid of an electron microscope, a representative of isolates named Hirado-9 with a length of 150 nm was seen in the sample of infected HmLu-1 cell cultures. Both Hirado-9 and Yamaguchi strains reacted with antisera. The outbreak of BEF in 1988 was the first since 1971 in Nagasaki Prefecture. The result proved that BEFV can be easily isolated in HmLu-1 cell culture from the washed blood cells of infected cattle.     

Monte Carlo simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control. I. General concepts and description of the model

A Monte Carlo simulation has been developed to describe the spread of classical swine fever virus between farms within a certain region. The data of the farms can be imported and considered individually. Transmission occurs via the infection routes direct animal and indirect person and vehicle contact, as well as by contaminated sperm and local spread. Parameters, such as incubation period and probability of detection, can be varied by the user and their impact on disease spread can be studied. The control measures stamping-out, movement control and pre-emptive slaughter in circular restriction areas as well as contact tracing can be applied and their effect on disease spread can thus be analysed. The numbers of culled and restricted farms and animals per epidemic and per day within an epidemic, the epidemic duration and the total length of restrictions per restricted farm are given. In an example, simulation runs were performed under the condition of application of all four-control measures. Because no real farm data were available, a test area was generated stochastically with a farm density of 1.3 farms/km(2). The distributions of the number of infected farms per epidemic and the epidemic length are shown.     

Identification of geographic factors associated with early spread of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To explore whether early analysis of spatial data may result in identification of variables associated with epidemic spread of foot and mouth disease. SAMPLE POPULATION: 37 farms with infected cattle (ie, case farms) reported within the first 6 days of the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. PROCEDURE: A georeferenced database was created and retrospective analysis was performed on case farm location in relation to farm density, cattle density, farm type (ie, beef vs dairy cattle production), road density, case farm distance to the nearest road, farm size, farm ownership, and day of infection. Mean or median results of 1 to 3 day versus 4 to 6 day spatial data were compared. Spatial-temporal associations were investigated by correlation analysis. RESULTS: Comparison of mean or median values between the first 3 days and days 4 to 6 of the epidemic and results of correlation analysis indicated a significant increase in road density, cattle density, and dairy cattle production and a significant decrease in farm size and case farm distance to the nearest road that developed over time. A route that linked most case farms by the shortest possible distance and also considered significantly associated variables was created. It included 86.1% of all case farms reported by 60 days into the epidemic. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Epidemic direction can be assessed on the basis of road density and other spatial variables as early as 6 days into an epidemic. Epidemic control areas may be more effectively identified if local and regional georeferenced data are considered.     

Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001

A spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease was used in March and early April 2001 to evaluate alternative control policies for the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Control policies were those in operation from March 20, 2001, and comprised a ban on all animal movements from February 23, 2001, and a stamping-out policy. Each simulation commenced with the known population of infected farms on April 10, 2001, and ran for 200 days. For the control policy which best approximated that actually implemented from late March, the model predicted an epidemic of approximately 1800 to 1900 affected farms, and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001. This policy included the slaughter-out of infected farms within 24 hours, slaughter of about 1.3 of the surrounding farms per infected farm within a further 48 hours, and minimal interfarm movements of susceptible animals. Delays in the slaughter of animals on infected farms beyond 24 hours after diagnosis slightly increased the epidemic size, and failure to achieve pre-emptive slaughter on an adequate number of at-risk farms substantially increased the expected size of the epidemic. Vaccination of up to three of the most outbreak-dense areas carried out in conjunction with the adopted control policy reduced the predicted size of the epidemic by less than 100 farms. Vaccination of buffer zones (designed to apply available vaccine and manpower as effectively as possible) carried out in place of the adopted control policy allowed the disease to spread out of control, producing an epidemic involving over 6000 farms by October 2001, with no prospect of immediate eradication.     

口蹄疫的特点以及规模化猪场生物安全体系构建

近年来,猪的口蹄疫疫情时有发生,面对具有高度传染性的疫病,尤其在国内规模化、集约化的养殖场中,一旦发生疫情不利于控制,极易造成疫情大范围暴发,因此采取必要的预防和控制措施仍然是关键所在.本文以口蹄疫为例,简述口蹄疫的特点,并通过选址与布局、生产管理、可移动风险和疫病防控等4个方面,阐明构建猪场生物安全体系是防控疫病的重...     

An epidemic of East Coast fever on a dairy farm in eastern Tanzania

During the period August-September 1995, an epidemic of East Coast fever occurred at a dairy farm in Morogoro region of eastern Tanzania. Due to an intensive dipping scheme since 1970, a very unstable endemic status had been established in the animals. A breakdown in the dipping scheme caused a major disease outbreak; the dip wash was not changed for 18 months prior to the outbreak and dipping continued in a dip wash of unknown strength. There was also a delay in detecting the disease at an early stage. In total, 180 out of 432 (42%) of the cattle at the farm died--resulting in a loss of Tshs. 26,330,000 (US$ 42,879). The attack risk was nearly 77%. The outbreak points to the importance of adopting integrated strategies for the control of ticks and tick-borne diseases.     

Retrospective epidemiological investigation of an outbreak of bovine ephemeral fever in 1991 affecting dairy cattle herds on the Mediterranean coastal plain

From August to October 1991 bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) occurred sporadically in two localities in Israel. The morbidity and mortality rates reached 2.6% and 0.1%, respectively. Only 12/50 dairy cattle herds were clinically infected with BEF in the dairy community. The total morbidity rate reached 0.8%. The lowest morbidity rate was recorded in young heifers (5.5%) and the highest in adult cows (75%). Only heifers over the age of three months were clinically affected. The spread of the disease apparently followed the local prevailing night winds, which blow from east to west, i.e., from the land toward the sea. The morbidity period lasted 61 days. The low incidence and morbidity rates were possibly due to the low virulence of the virus strain involved in the 1991 epidemic. Retrospective analysis indicates that vectors - apparently mosquitoes - infected with BEF virus could have been overwintering.     

Salmonella Brandenburg--emergence of a variant strain on a sheep farm in the South Island of New Zealand

Salmonella Brandenburg was initially diagnosed in New Zealand in an aborted ewe from a Merino flock in mid-Canterbury in1996. The following year, the disease occurred on farms in mid-Canterbury and on one farm near Winton in Southland (Bailey1997). Since then, this bacterium has caused widespread abortion and deaths in pregnant ewes in Southland, coastal Otago and south- and mid-Canterbury. In cattle, the same organism has caused diarrhoea and dysentery in calves and adult cattle, and abortions and deaths in first-calving cows and, to a lesser extent, in second-calving and older cows. Salmonella Brandenburg has also caused diarrhoea and fetal deaths in dogs, and diarrhoea and deaths in foals. The outbreak strain has been extensively studied using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). All isolates tested to date have had an indistinguishable molecular pattern with the exception of a single isolate from a sheep-yard dust sample recovered in October 2000 that is the subject of this report. The molecular pattern of the variant strain differed from that of the epidemic strain by the absence of one high molecular weight band and the addition of three lower molecular weight bands.     

Risk factors for the introduction of high pathogenicity Avian Influenza virus into poultry farms during the epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003

An epidemic of high pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) occurred in the Netherlands in 2003. A census survey of 173 infected and 401 uninfected commercial poultry farms was carried out to identify factors associated with the introduction of the HPAI virus into poultry farms. Data on farm size, production characteristics, type of housing, presence of cattle and pigs were gathered by the National Inspection Service for Livestock and Meat from all farms included in this study. For each risk factor (RF) available for analysis, the Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio was calculated (stratified on farm size and housing type). We found an increased risk of HPAI virus introduction in layer finisher type poultry: OR = 2.05 (95% confidence interval, CI = 1.29-3.27). An explanation for this increased risk is the high number of contacts between these farms, especially via cardboard egg trays used for removal of eggs during the epidemic. Our analysis did not indicate significant differences between the infected and uninfected farms with regard to housing type, presence of cattle or pigs. Since layer finisher type farms are assumed to be at higher risk for HPAI virus introduction, more specific control measures might be applied in future outbreaks.     

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were made during the early stages of the 2001 epidemic in the UK. The first outbreak, confirmed on February 20, was at an abattoir in Essex which specialised in the processing of culled sows and boars. On February 23, the disease was confirmed at a pig farm in Northumberland which held cull sows and boars fed on waste food; the findings indicated that it was the first of the five premises to be infected. The disease had probably been present since early February, and it was the most likely origin of the epidemic. The other premises investigated were a waste food-fed cull sow/boar pig unit in Essex, approximately 30 km from the abattoir, which was probably infected at the same time or before the abattoir, a sheep and cattle farm approximately 6 km from the Northumberland pig farm, which was probably infected by airborne virus from it in the period immediately before February 13, and a sheep and cattle farm in Devon which had clinical disease from February 20 and was probably infected by sheep transported from Northumberland on February 13 which arrived on February 15.     

A survey for BVDV antibodies in cattle farms in Slovakia and genetic typing of BVDV isolates from imported animals

A serological survey for bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) antibodies on a collection of 1295 serum samples obtained from 6-12 months old cattle originating from 45 farms in Slovakia was carried out. On 13 farms more than 90% of the examined animals were seropositive, on 14 farms 71-90% seroprevalence was observed, on 13 farms only 50-70% animals were found to be positive for BVDV antibodies, while the remaining 5 farms showed fewer than 50% seropositive animals. The average incidence of BVDV antibodies (around 70%) was similar as determined 30 years ago. Of 84 serum samples from seronegative animals originating from 14 farms in which 70-98% seropositivity was observed, six were positive in Ag-BVDV ELISA indicating persistently infected (PI) cattle. On a farm to which animals were imported from abroad, a BVD outbreak was observed. Of 110 animals tested, four were positive in Ag-ELISA indicating the presence of PI cattle on this farm. Genetic typing of two isolates from imported animals performed by RT-PCR (324/326 primers from 5'-UTR), sequencing of PCR products and computer-assisted phylogenetic analysis revealed that they belong to BVDV-1 h group.     

Subcutaneous and pulmonary emphysema as complications of bovine ephemeral fever

Subcutaneous and pulmonary emphysema was observed in some cattle on farms on which outbreaks of bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) occurred. BEF virus was isolated in baby hamsters from one of the cases and cattle were injected with blood from this animal. Although the experimental animals developed typical BEF symptoms, no signs of emphysema could be detected by clinical and pathological examinations. The histopathological changes in the skeletal muscle and synovial membranes of the natural case resembled those of BEF described by Basson, Pienaar & Van der Westhuizen (1970). The lumina of the terminal and respiratory bronchioles in the lungs were obliterated by cellular debris and the muscular portion of some of these bronchioles was necrotic. The possible pathogenesis of pulmonary emphysema is discussed.     

Analysis of the effect of feedback feeding on the farm-level occurrence of porcine epidemic diarrhea in Kagoshima and Miyazaki Prefectures,Japan

When a large-scale epidemic of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) occurred in 2013 in Japan, feedback feeding (feeding feces and gut tissues of infected piglets) was attempted to impart immunity to sows and immunize nursing piglets via breastfeeding. This study evaluated the effect of feedback feeding on PED control at 172 farms in Kagoshima and Miyazaki Prefectures. Univariable and multivariable generalized linear models were used to analyze the associations between conduct of feedback feeding and damage from the outbreak (outbreak period and the number of piglet deaths) at the farm level. The within-farm outbreak period shortened over time after the regional outbreak began on Kyushu Island (P=0.009) and was longer on large-scale farms (mean 66.0 days, P=0.003) than small-scale farms (29.4 days) and on farms that used feedback feeding (145.2 days, P=0.059) than those that did not (66.0 days). The number of dead piglets decreased over time since the first regional case (P<0.001) and was higher at farrow-to-finish farms (3.8 piglets/sow, P<0.001) than reproduction farms (0.7 piglets/sow). The effect of feedback feeding on the number of dead piglets was not significant, but its interaction term with farm style had a significant effect (5.0 more piglet deaths at reproduction farms than fallow-to-finish farms, P=0.001). These results suggest that feedback feeding made the damage from PED worse, though it was well established at a later stage of the regional PED epidemic.     

Models for regional heartwater epidemiology in a variable environment

A model of the epidemic dynamics of heartwater within a cattle production unit was presented by Yonow et al. (1998). Here, the model is expanded to a region consisting of several farms to study the effect of environmental variability on control strategies. We have shown that: * In a region, where the environment of each farm is modelled with constant epidemiologic parameter values, while the between-farm parameter values differ, regional variation in the removal rate of infected cattle increases the average fraction of infected cattle across the region, while regional variation in the transmission rate of infection from ticks to cattle decreases the average fraction of infected cattle, thereby requiring control measures that keep the removal rate uniform and the transmission rate variable. * In a region, where in addition to regional variation between farms, the epidemiologic parameters of each farm are time-variant, then temporal variation in both the transmission rate and removal rate increases the average fraction of infected cattle across the region, thereby requiring control measures that keep both parameters uniform.     

Risk factors for epidemic respiratory disease in Norwegian cattle herds

An epidemic of acute respiratory disease associated with bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) occurred during the winter and spring of 1995 in two neighbouring veterinary districts in the south-eastern part of Norway.The objective of this study was to describe the time course of the outbreak associated with BRSV in the cattle herds, and to determine the association between selected herd factors and the risk of experiencing a herd outbreak of acute respiratory disease.Data from 431 cattle herds on the dates of disease occurrence, location of the farms, herd size, age profile and production type were collected retrospectively for 1995. The risk of acute respiratory disease occurring in a cattle herd was related to the herd size as well as the type of production, with an expressed interaction between these two variables. From the Cox proportional-hazards model, the risk of a herd outbreak in a mixed herd of 20 animals was estimated to be 1.7-times greater than in a dairy herd and 3.3-times greater than a beef herd (reference category) of a comparable size. On increasing the herd size to 50 animals, the risk increased 1.3-fold for a mixed herd, 3.3-fold for a dairy herd, and 2.1-fold for a beef herd, compared to the risk for a corresponding type of herd of 20 animals.     

Rhodococcus equi in fecal and environmental samples from Kansas horse farms

Horse farms in Kansas were surveyed for the incidence of Rhodococcus equi. Fecal specimens and soil or cobweb samples were collected from each farm and cultured on selective media. One control farm (with no history of R. equi infection), one farm which had an outbreak 3 and 4 years previously and 2 farms which had R. equi-infected foals that season were surveyed. In addition, fecal samples from 21 horses hospitalized in the Kansas State University Veterinary Hospital were cultured. There was no significant difference in the incidence of R. equi in fecal samples from the 2 farms with recent disease problems. The farm with a history of disease had a significantly higher percentage of positive fecal cultures than the 2 farms with a more recent history of disease. Neither ration composition nor sex of the horses appeared to affect the fecal culture results. Fecal samples from 2 birds on 1 farm were positive for R. equi.     

Reanalysis of the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic to calculate airborne transmission probabilities

The aims of this study were to statistically reassess the likelihood that windborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) occurred at the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 FMD epidemic at Oswestry, Shropshire, and to derive dose-response probability of infection curves for farms exposed to airborne FMDV. To enable this, data on all farms present in 1967 in the parishes near Oswestry were assembled. Cases were infected premises whose date of appearance of first clinical signs was within 14 days of the depopulation of the index farm. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection status and distance and direction from the index farm. The UK Met Office's NAME atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) was used to generate plumes for each day that FMDV was excreted from the index farm based on actual historical weather records from October 1967. Daily airborne FMDV exposure rates for all farms in the study area were calculated using a geographical information system. Probit analyses were used to calculate dose-response probability of infection curves to FMDV, using relative exposure rates on case and control farms. Both the logistic regression and probit analyses gave strong statistical support to the hypothesis that airborne spread occurred. There was some evidence that incubation period was inversely proportional to the exposure rate.     

Epidemiological investigations of outbreaks of bovine ephemeral fever in Israel

In two epidemics of bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) in Israel, one in 1990 and one in 1999, the virus was probably carried by vectors transported by air currents across the Rift Valley and through the Red Sea trough. The disease broke out under optimal ecological conditions among vulnerable cattle populations and spread rapidly; it developed in the spring and summer and ended soon after the daily average ambient temperature fell below 16 degrees C in late autumn. The proportion of herds affected reached 78.4 and 97.7 per cent in 1990 and 1999, respectively. The highest rates of incidence, morbidity and mortality were recorded in dairy cattle herds in the Jordan Valley, the initial focus of the outbreaks, with a morbidity of 20 and 38.6 per cent in 1990 and 1999, respectively, and mortality among the affected animals of 2 and 8.6 per cent in 1990 and 1999, respectively. In 1991, the disease recurred sporadically in the central and southern regions of Israel in only three herds, but in 2000 the disease returned on an epidemic scale, and 85 per cent of herds were affected, with morbidity and mortality rates of 4-3 and 0-3 per cent, respectively. In the 1999 epidemic, the morbidity rate decreased from 38-6 per cent on average in the Jordan Valley to 12.8 per cent in the inner valleys and 5.3 per cent on the Mediterranean coastal plain, but the mortality rate increased from 8-6 per cent in the Jordan Valley to 14-3 per cent in the inner valleys, and to 28 per cent on the Mediterranean coastal plain, where the outbreak declined. An average of 2-7 per cent of the animals experienced a second attack of the disease two to six weeks later. The epidemic in 2000 was milder and shorter than that in 1999. All the cattle affected in both outbreaks were more than three months old. The vector(s) is not known for certain but the available evidence indicates that mosquitoes, and not Culicoides species, are the natural vectors of BEF virus in Israel.