Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide

? Context

Projecting changes in forest productivity in Europe is crucial for adapting forest management to changing environmental conditions.

? Aims

The objective of this paper is to project forest productivity changes under different climate change scenarios at a large number of sites in Europe with a stand-scale process-based model.

? Methods

We applied the process-based forest growth model 4C at 132 typical forest sites of important European tree species in ten environmental zones using climate change scenarios from three different climate models and two different assumptions about CO₂ effects on productivity.

? Results

This paper shows that future forest productivity will be affected by climate change and that these effects depend strongly on the climate scenario used and the persistence of CO₂ effects. We find that productivity increases in Northern Europe, increases or decreases in Central Europe, and decreases in Southern Europe. This geographical pattern is mirrored by the responses of the individual tree species. The productivity of Scots pine and Norway spruce, mostly located in central and northern Europe, increases while the productivity of Common beech and oak in southern regions decreases. It is important to note that we consider the physiological response to climate change excluding disturbances or management.

? Conclusions

Different climate change scenarios and assumptions about the persistence of CO₂ effects lead to uncertain projections of future forest productivity. These uncertainties need to be integrated into forest management planning and adaptation of forest management to climate change using adaptive management frameworks.     

Potential spread of the pine processionary moth in France: preliminary results from a simulation model and future challenges

Context

Some forest insect pests are currently extending their range as a consequence of climate warming. However, in most cases, the evidence is mainly based on correlations and the underlying mechanism is not clearly known.

Aims

One of the most severe pests of pine forests in Europe, the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, is currently expanding its distribution as a result of climate warming and does not occupy entirely its potential habitat. A model describing its spread was developed to simulate its potential range in France under various climate change scenarios.

Methods

The spread model was divided into several sub-models to describe the growth, survival and dispersal of the species. The model was validated on the observed change of species distribution, its sensitivity was tested, and spread scenarios were simulated for the future.

Results

The model shows that climate warming initiated the species range expansion in France since the early 1990s. The spread is now limited by dispersal capability, but human-mediated dispersal could accelerate the range expansion.

Conclusion

Species range expansion is an indicator of climate change. However, time lags can appear due to limited dispersal capabilities, and human-mediated dispersal could create satellite colonies and artificially accelerate the spread.     

Climatic effects on radial growth of major tree species on Changbai Mountain

? Introduction

Information on spatial variability in tree radial growth is essential for improving predictions of forest ecosystem responses to climate change. To date, researchers have designed models to simulate the potential distribution area of major forest types under different climate change scenarios in Northeast China, but little is known about the spatial variability of tree growth in response to climate.

? Materials and methods

We used a dendroecological technique to examine the climate–growth relationship of six dominant tree species on seven sites varying in altitude on Changbai Mountain in Northeast China, to explore whether the spatial variability of tree growth is an indicator of regional climatic forces, and whether simulation results generated by models can accurately reflect this in tree radial growth.

? Results

Fifteen site-specific species can be distinguished species at or near their upper limit distribution from those at the lower distributions. Species differences were more important than altitude differences in influencing species’ site-specific radial growth. Precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture together constitute the major factors limiting tree radial growth.

? Conclusion

We found the distribution area of dominant tree species on Changbai Mountain will shift upward; growth of Korean pine will not decline at its lower limit of distribution and will not eventually even disappear from forest communities in those areas.     

Understory dynamics after disturbance accelerate succession from spruce to beech-dominated forest—the Siggaboda case study

??Context

It is assumed that climate change will favour European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) to Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) at its northern range margins due to climate change and induced disturbance events.

??Aims

An old-growth mixed forest of spruce and beech, situated near the northern beech margin, was studied to reveal effects of disturbances and response processes on natural forest dynamics, focussing on the understory.

??Methods

We carried out analyses on understory dynamics of beech and spruce in relation to overstory release. This was done based on a sequence of stand and tree vitality inventories after a series of abiotic and biotic disturbances.

??Results

It became apparent that beech (understory) has a larger adaptive capacity to disturbance impacts and overstory release (68 % standing volume loss) than spruce. Understory dynamics can play a key role for forest succession from spruce to beech-dominated forests. Disturbances display an acceleration effect on forest succession in the face of climate change.

??Conclusion

Beech is poised strategically to replace spruce as the dominant tree species at the study area. Due to an increasing productivity and a lower risk of stand failure, beech may raise into the focus of forestry in southern Sweden.     

Carbon stock changes of forest land in Finland under different levels of wood use and climate change

Context

Prediction of the effect of harvests and climate change (CC) on the changes in carbon stock of forests is necessary both for CC mitigation and adaptation purposes.

Aims

We assessed the impact of roundwood and fuelwood removals and climate change (CC) on the changes in carbon stock of Finnish forests during 2007–2042. We considered three harvest scenarios: two based on the recent projections of roundwood and fuelwood demand, and the third reflecting the maximum sustainable cutting level. We applied two climate scenarios: the climate was in the state that prevailed around year 2006, or it changed according to the IPCC SRES A1B scenario.

Methods

We combined the large-scale forestry model MELA with the soil carbon model Yasso07 for mineral soils. For soils of drained, forested peatlands, we used a method based on emission factors.

Results

The stock change of trees accounted for approximately 80 % of the total stock change. Trees and mineral soils acted as carbon sinks and the drained peatland soils as a carbon source. The forest carbon sink increased clearly in both of the demand-based scenarios, reaching the level of 13–20 Tg C/year (without CC). The planned increase in the use of bioenergy reduced the forest sink by 2.6 Tg C/year. CC increased the forest carbon sink in 2042 by 38 %–58 % depending on the scenario. CC decreased the sink of mineral soils in the initial years of the simulations; after 2030, the effect was slightly positive. CC increased the emissions from the drained peatland soils.

Conclusions

It is likely that forest land in Finland acts as a carbon sink in the future. The changes in carbon stocks of trees, mineral soils, and peatland soils respond differently to CC and fuelwood and roundwood harvests.     

Economics of species change subject to risk of climate change and increasing information: a (quasi-)option value analysis

Context

In the context of climate change, several forest adaptation options have to be advocated such as a shift to more resistant species.

Aims

We provide an economic analysis of timber species change as a tool for adapting forests to climate change.

Methods

We use the framework of cost–benefit analysis, taking uncertainty into account both exogenously (sensitivity analysis) and endogenously [(quasi-)option value calculations]. We apply the method to assess the economic rationale for converting Norway spruce stands to Douglas-fir in the French Black Mountain.

Results

We find that the Douglas-fir conversion is land expectation value (LEV) maximizing under a wide range of a priori (subjective) probabilities attached to high mortality of Norway spruce under climate change (for probabilities higher than 0.25–0.31). If information about the impacts of climate change is expected to increase over time, and given the large sunk costs attached to conversion, a delay strategy may be preferable to transition and to status quo when the impacts of climate change on Norway spruce mortality are sufficiently ambiguous. In such cases, getting information earlier increases the LEV by €5–60/ha.

Conclusion

Beyond the specifics of the case study, this paper suggests that quasi-option value is a relevant tool to provide insights to forest owners dealing with adaptation decisions in the context of climate change.     

Summer drought and canopy opening increase the strength of the oak seedlings–shrub spatial association

? Context

The knowledge of how shrub–seedling interactions vary with summer drought, canopy opening, and tree species is crucial for adapting forest management to climate change.

? Aims

The aim of this study was to assess variation in shrub–oak recruitment associations along a south–north drought climate gradient and between two levels of canopy cover in coastal dune forest communities in a climate change-adapted forest management perspective.

? Material and methods

Mapped data of associational patterns of seedlings of three oak species with interspecific pooled shrubs were analyzed using a bivariate pair correlation function in 10 (0.315 ha) regeneration plots located in forest and recent gap sites along the climate gradient. An index of association strength was calculated in each plot and plotted against a summer moisture index.

? Results

The association strength increased with increasing summer drought from wet south to dry north and from closed forests to gaps.

? Conclusion

Consistent with facilitation theory, our results suggest that climate change may shift associational patterns in coastal dune forest communities towards more positive associations, in particular in canopy gaps. In a perspective of climate change, foresters may need to conserve understory shrubs in gaps in order to promote oak species regeneration.     

Is the private forest sector adapting to climate change? A study of forest managers in north Wales

? Context

Two-thirds of Britain’s forest area is privately owned. Thus, understanding private forest owners and managers, and their attitudes to uncertainty and change, is essential for the success of climate change adaptation policies.

? Aim

The aims of this study are to (1) assess how beliefs in climate change in the private sector have influenced forest management practices; (2) identify constraints related to changes in species choice and silvicultural systems; (3) analyse the implications for implementing climate change policy in forestry.

? Method

Semi-structured interviews with key informants who provide advice to, or manage woodlands in, the private forest sector in north Wales.

? Results

Woodland managers and some advisers are not generally convinced of a need to adapt. They feel the future is uncertain, more usually in relation to tree disease than to climate change itself. Species choice is the principle focus of adaptation activities and reveals a deep divide in opinion. Commercial advisors look to new exotics but are inhibited by absence of markets, while small-scale owners rely more on native genetic diversity.

? Conclusions

Findings that are likely to apply widely include: the influential role of forest agents in forest management decisions including species choice; lack of confidence in climate change predictions, and in markets; more immediate concerns about tree pests and diseases; demand for leadership from the public sector, and for engagement amongst the private sector. Further research is needed across a wider area to test the variability in relationship between attitudes and behaviours, and local conditions including climate change predictions.     

Knowledge update in adaptive management of forest resources under climate change: a Bayesian simulation approach

Context

We develop a modelling concept that updates knowledge and beliefs about future climate changes, to model a decision-maker’s choice of forest management alternatives, the outcomes of which depend on the climate condition.

Aims

Applying Bayes’ updating, we show that while the true climate trajectory is initially unknown, it will eventually be revealed as novel information become available. How fast the decision-maker will form firm beliefs about future climate depends on the divergence among climate trajectories, the long-term speed of change, and the short-term climate variability.

Methods

We simplify climate change outcomes to three possible trajectories of low, medium and high changes. We solve a hypothetical decision-making problem of tree species choice aiming at maximising the land expectation value (LEV) and based on the updated beliefs at each time step.

Results

The economic value of an adaptive approach would be positive and higher than a non-adaptive approach if a large change in climate state occurs and may influence forest decisions.

Conclusion

Updating knowledge to handle climate change uncertainty is a valuable addition to the study of adaptive forest management in general and the analysis of forest decision-making, in particular for irreversible or costly decisions of long-term impact.     

Future management options for cembran pine forests close to the alpine timberline

Key message

High-elevation forests in the Alps protect infrastructure and human lives against natural hazards such as rockfall, flooding, and avalanches. Routinely performed silvicultural interventions maintain the required stand structure but are not commercially viable in remote forests due to high operational costs. Financial subsidies for the management of high-elevation protection forests are an efficient strategy to ensure sustainable forest cover.

Context

Presently, many high-elevation forests in the Alps are managed in order to ensure the provision of ecosystem services with emphasis on the minimization of natural hazards.

Aims

We studied the possible economic performance of a high-elevation protection forest from an owner’s perspective. We investigated whether the increase in productivity due to climate change and a favorable market for the dominating cembran pine (Pinus cembra L.) are sufficient for profitable timber production in protection forests.

Methods

We simulated the standing timber stock and the soil carbon pool for a 100-year period with climate-sensitive models and compared harvesting costs with expected revenues. Our scenarios included different climates, intensities of timber extractions, parameters of the timber market, and the availability of government subsidies.

Results

Overall, the productivity of forests increases by approximately 15% until the end of the century. In a zero-management scenario, the forest accumulates carbon both in the aboveground biomass and the soil. In the case of an extensive management with moderate timber extractions every 50 years, the carbon stocks decline both in biomass and soil. A more intensive management scenario with extractions every 30 years leads to substantial losses of the soil and biomass carbon pools. In addition, the stand structure changes and the protective function of the forest is not sustainably ensured. Timber production can be economically successful only with high selling prices of cembran pine timber and the availability of governmental subsidies for forest management. The admixed European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) contributes only marginally to the economic success. The main challenge are harvesting costs. The costs of timber extraction by a long-distance cableway logging system exceed the value of the harvested timber.

Conclusion

The intensification of forest management cannot be recommended from the perspective of timber production, sustainable forest management, and protection against natural hazards. Our simulation experiment shows that the extraction of timber at decadal intervals depletes the carbon stock that is insufficiently replenished from aboveground and belowground litterfall. Leaving the forest unmanaged does not impose a particular threat to stand stability and is under the encountered situation, a justified strategy.

     

Sustainable management, earthquake disturbances, and transient dynamics: modelling timber harvesting impacts in mixed-species forests

Context

There is strong interest in sustainable forest management systems that preserve characteristics of forests close to naturalness. Assessing the effectiveness of these systems is difficult because defining “natural” baselines from which impacts are estimated is challenging and because the influence of harvesting can have complex interactions with major natural disturbances.

Aims

We used SORTIE/NZ, an individual tree-based forest dynamics model, to understand how harvesting and earthquake disturbance affect the dynamics of a New Zealand podocarp–angiosperm forest.

Methods

Having parameterized SORTIE/NZ with extensive field data, we ran simulations for three natural dynamics scenarios (no disturbance and two earthquake scenarios) and then added podocarp harvesting scenario to each of these.

Results

Simulations suggest that this forest is experiencing transient dynamics, with a natural rise in the dominance of one species of slow-growing podocarp with and without earthquake. Harvesting podocarps strongly affected its increase in basal area.

Conclusion

Our results indicate that transient dynamics may occur in mixed podocarp forests and major disturbances may have complex interactions with management. Evaluating management impacts without accounting for these complex dynamics may be misleading. Models make predictions about transient trajectories that may help to evaluate these impacts.     

US strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change: building a framework for decision making

Context

Recent policy changes in the USA direct agencies managing federal forests to analyze the potential effects of climate change on forest productivity, water resource protection, wildlife habitat, biodiversity, and other values.

Aims

This paper describes methods developed to (1) assess current risks, vulnerabilities, and gaps in knowledge; (2) engage internal agency resources and external partners in the development of options and solutions; and (3) manage forest resources for resilience, not just in terms of natural ecosystems but in affected human communities as well.

Methods

We describe an approach designed to characterize certain climate change effects on forests, and estimate the effectiveness of response options ranging from resistance to a realignment of management objectives.

Results

Field testing on a 6,300 km² area of conifer forest in the northwestern USA shows this decision model to be useful and cost-effective in identifying the highest sensitivities relating to vegetation management, biological diversity, water resources and forest transportation systems, and building consensus for adaptive strategies and actions.

Conclusions

Results suggest that this approach is an effective means for guiding management decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change, and provides an empirical basis for setting budgetary and management priorities.     

Within- and between-stand variation in selected properties of Sitka spruce sawn timber in the UK: implications for segregation and grade recovery

Context

Information on wood properties variation is needed by forest growers and timber processors to best utilise the available forest resource and to guide future management.

Aim

This study aims to quantify the variation in selected properties of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) structural timber.

Methods

Twelve harvest-age stands were selected, ten trees per site were felled and processed into 301 logs. Dynamic modulus of elasticity (MOE_dyn) was measured on each tree and log using portable acoustic instruments. Logs were processed into structural timber and its MOE and bending strength was determined.

Results

Overall, the timber satisfied the MOE, bending strength and density requirements for the C16 strength class. Approximately 25 % of the total variation in timber mechanical properties was attributed to between-stand differences, with the remaining 75 % attributed to within-stand differences. A series of equations were developed to predict site, tree and log-level variation in timber properties.

Conclusion

Knowledge of the site and stand factors that are associated with differences in timber properties can assist with segregation of the current resource. Portable acoustic tools can also be used to increase the stiffness of sawn timber by segregating out individual trees and logs that will yield low stiffness timber.     

Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on boreal forest climate change mitigation

? Context

The Kyoto Protocol allows the use of domestic forest carbon sequestration to offset emissions to a limited degree, while bioenergy as an unlimited emission reduction option receives substantial financial support in many countries.

? Aim

The primary objective of this study was to analyze (1) whether these limits on forest carbon sequestration would be binding, thereby leading to inefficient mitigation, and (2) the total potential effect of the protocol on the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in the forest sector.

? Methods

A partial equilibrium model of the Norwegian forest sector was used to quantify the GHG fluxes in a base scenario with no climate policy, a Kyoto Protocol policy (KP policy), and a policy with no cap on forest carbon sequestration (FC policy), assuming that the policies apply the rest of the century.

? Results

Carbon offsets are higher under the KP policy than in the base scenario and likewise higher than under the FC policy in the short run, but the KP policy fails to utilize the forest carbon sequestration potential in the long run as it provides considerably less incentives to invest in forestry than the FC policy.

? Conclusion

The KP increases the Norwegian forest sector’s climate change mitigation compared to no climate policy but less in the long run than a carbon policy with no cap on forest carbon credits.     

Evaluating the deployment of alternative species in planted conifer forests as a means of adaptation to climate change—case studies in New Zealand and Scotland

Context

A strategy widely proposed for increasing the resilience of forests against the impacts of projected climate change is to increase the number of species planted to spread and reduce the risks from a range of biotic and abiotic hazards.

Aims

We tested this strategy in two case study areas in planted conifer forests in New Zealand and Scotland.

Methods

The performance of the major tree species and an alternative was compared: radiata pine and Eucalyptus fastigata in New Zealand and Sitka spruce and Scots pine in Scotland. The process-based model 3-PG2S was used to simulate the effects of projected climate change at the end of this century, with and without CO₂ fertilisation, upon productivity and financial returns. The effects of an abiotic hazard and two biotic hazards were considered.

Results

Under the current climate, the major species outperform alternatives in nearly all circumstances. However, with climate change, their relative performance alters. In New Zealand, planting of E. fastigata becomes more attractive particularly when various hazards and elevated CO₂ concentrations are considered. In Scotland, Scots pine becomes more attractive than Sitka spruce at lower interest rates.

Conclusions

The major plantation species in both countries are well suited to the current climate, but deployment of alternative species and/or breeds can help to adapt these planted forests to the impacts of climate change.     

A new bioclimatic model calibrated with vegetation for Mediterranean forest areas

? Water availability is one of the main factors explaining flora composition and growth in Mediterranean regions, where it may decline with climate change.

? Our goal was to develop a model for forest site assessment in Mediterranean environments, focusing on water availability to assess potential vegetation composition and productivity in any places, whatever their level of disturbance.

? We designed a statistical model, using global climatic and geographic variables, as well as detailed local topographic and edaphic variables, to compute a bioclimatic index for Mediterranean forest environments. This model was calibrated in France with a flora index from 325 old forests. The model explained 80.3% of the flora index variance. The method fills a gap in existing models, bridging scales from the region to forest sites.

? Beyond its theoretical aspect, it was designed to allow practical tools to be derived from it for decision-making and management, such as the assessment of climate change impact on vegetation, and of forest productivity. Its development and adaptation is possible in other Mediterranean regions, and in any region where water is one of the main limiting factors.

     

Static site indices from different national forest inventories: harmonization and prediction from site conditions

Key message

Static site indices determined from stands’ top height are derived from different forest inventory sources with height and age information and thus enable comparisons and modeling of a species’ productivity encompassing large environmental gradients.

Context

Estimating forest site productivity under changing climate requires models that cover a wide range of site conditions. To exploit different inventory sources, we need harmonized measures and procedures for the productive potential. Static site indices (SI) appear to be a good choice.

Aims

We propose a method to derive static site indices for different inventory designs and apply it to six tree species of the German and French National Forest Inventory (NFI). For Norway spruce and European beech, the climate dependency of SI is modeled in order to estimate trends in productivity due to climate change.

Methods

Height and age measures are determined from the top diameters of a species at a given site. The SI is determined for a reference age of 100 years.

Results

The top height proves as a stable height measure that can be derived harmoniously from German and French NFI. The boundaries of the age-height frame are well described by the Chapman-Richards function. For spruce and beech, generalized additive models of the SI against simple climate variables lead to stable and plausible model behavior.

Conclusion

The introduced methodology permits a harmonized quantification of forest site productivity by static site indices. Predicting productivity in dependence on climate illustrates the benefits of combined datasets.

     

Key attributes to the disturbance response of montane cloud forest trees: shade tolerance,dispersal mode and the capacity to form a seed bank

? Context

Understanding the biological mechanisms related to plant response to disturbance is essential for predicting the changes in the structure of plant communities resulting from disturbance.

? Aims

The aims of this study are to identify the regeneration traits linked to the response to disturbance of tree species of a montane cloud forest in order to define regeneration types and to explore whether disturbance intensity acts to select specific regeneration types that can colonize disturbed plots.

? Methods

A theoretical model was developed and evaluated using structural equation modeling to link two latent variables: regeneration type and vulnerability to disturbance. We studied two plots that were subjected to different intensities of disturbance and one plot of mature forest.

? Results

Shade tolerance, dispersal mode, and the capacity to form a seed bank were the traits that determine regeneration type. There was a trend for re-sprouting capacity to be associated with the regeneration types dominant in disturbed plots. Regeneration types were differentially distributed among the sites.

? Conclusion

There was evidence that disturbance intensity has a filtering effect on the colonization of disturbed plots. Species vulnerability to disturbance depends on specific combinations of regeneration traits. Structural equation modeling is useful for exploring plant response to disturbance using key parameters linked to plant persistence.     

Recovery of forest structure and composition to harvesting in different strata of mixed even-aged central Appalachian hardwoods

Context

Implementing nature-based silviculture requires understanding the structural and compositional changes that occur in forested stands under known disturbance types and intensities.

Aims

The objectives were to assess the (a) resistance of hardwood forests to change, (b) their trajectory of recovery following disturbance, and (c) how closely resulting forests resemble original forests.

Methods

We characterized tree structure and composition at three points in time (pre-disturbance, 1-year post-disturbance, and ～15 years following disturbance) along a harvesting disturbance gradient created by removing trees in different forest canopy strata.

Results

Significant differences to pre-disturbance conditions were noted immediately post-harvest for tree basal area, density, species richness, and tree species composition; treatment differences were observed for all parameters except diversity. Plots exposed to the least extreme harvesting disturbances (cutting small and intermediate trees) had returned to pre-disturbance conditions for most parameters after 15 years, while the most extreme harvesting disturbance (cutting large trees) had not yet recovered.

Conclusions

Although not initially resistant, Central Appalachian eastern hardwoods are fairly resilient to the removal of trees in the subcanopy or a mixture of the subcanopy and canopy; only the removal of solely canopy trees (i.e., high grading) and complete removal (i.e., clearcutting) appear to impose harvesting disturbances to which these forests may not be resilient.