Application of the ‘fast’-method to a long term interregional air pollution model

The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is applied to an interregional Air Pollution Model which simulates SO₂/SO₄-concentrations and -depositions as an annual average. The results are discussed and problems connected with the application of the FAST-method are reported.     

Influence of atmospheric deposition on lake mass balances in the Turkey Lakes Watershed,Central Ontario

Ion mass budgets were measured for 2 water yr (June–May, 1981–83) for a high and a ).ow elevation lake and their associated catchments. The lakes are located in the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) in central Ontario, Canada, which is an undeveloped basin located on the Canadian Shield, 50 km north of Sault Ste. Marie. The ionic budgets of the lakes show that atmospheric deposition directly to the lakes' surfaces is the principal input pathway for H⁺ and NH₄, whereas basic cations, SO₄, NO₃, and probably alkalinity are supplied primarily by inflow from the surrounding terrestrial basin and/or upstream lake. The lakes strongly retain H⁺ (i.e. output ? input), weakly retain the N species, and are in balance (i.e. output = input) for other ions except Ca and alkalinity which show an excess output compared to measured + estimated inputs. We hypothesize that an input of groundwater and/or seepage accounts for most of the Ca and alkalinity imbalance although the existence of within-lake alkalinity generation is probable also.     

Species diversity and water quality in Galveston bay,Texas

The relationships between species diversity of phytoplankton, zooplankton, nekton and benthos samples and the water quality of Galveston Bay, Texas were quantitatively compared. Two water quality parameters (i.e., percent waste water or the toxicity of the water at a given sampling station) were found to be inversely correlated with species diversity. A computerized dispersion model was used to calculate percent waste water. Toxicity was measured by subjecting a blue-green alga (Coccochloris elebans) to water samples and by utilizing growth depression as the toxicity criterion. Waters from the Houston Ship Channel and the Trinity River were found to be significantly toxic and the dispersion model was again used to determine the distribution of toxicity to each bay area. Evidence that toxicity was dispersed with input waters was experimentally verified. Those areas receiving the greatest amounts of toxic effluent exhibited the lowest mean annual diversities. Predictive equations were generated, indicating that diversity at any point in the bay can be computed from Houston Ship Channel diversity and the dispersion model. Computations were also accomplished whereby dilution and/or treatment of waste inflows could be estimated to achieve a desired and/or acceptable diversity level in the bay.     

Simulation of flow patterns and ion-exchange in soil percolation experiments

An increased understanding of ion-exchange processes in raw-humus was obtained by simulations using quantitative mathematical models. The work is based on a series of percolation experiments with a water flow of about 1 mm min^?1 through raw-humus samples of 4 cm thickness. For the input solutions consisting of 10^?3 N H₂SO₄, HNO₃, HCl and NaCl the results indicate that cation-exchange reactions are the most important processes for the chemical composition of the run-off. Since a large part of the water flows quickly through the soil, both the water residence time and the ion-exchange kinetics must be taken into account. As a basis for the chemical model, a hydrologic sub-model reproducing the residence time distribution of the flow in the soil is used. Considering the ions H⁺, M⁺ (monovalent metal ions) and M²⁺ (divalent metal ions), four different chemical models were tried but only one of them gave satisfactory agreement with the experimental results. This model has 5 independent parameters and consists of first and second order chemical processes.     

A comparison of a multilayer regional-scale acid rain assessment model (MLRAPT) with a single-layer assessment model,RAPT

This study, which is part of the 1985 Assessment on Current Damages of Acid Deposition, examines uncertainty due to treating transport processes using a single-layer model compared to a multilayer model. The Multilayer Regional Air Pollutant Transport Model, MLRAPT, was run in both modes, single layer and multilayer, using 224 sources during a 22-day period in July 1978 for the northeastern United States. Comparison between the two modes indicated that the average air concentrations were highly correlated (a correlation coefficient of 0.98). However, for wet deposition of SO₄, a correlation coefficient of 0.55 between the two predicted wet deposition fields was obtained. Results of the comparison of the two modes with the observed air concentration fields and with a limited comparison of observed wet deposition indicate that caution should be used when interpreting results of a single-layer model to develop source/receptor relationships.     

Effects of acid mine drainage on a Southwestern Pennsylvania stream

Physicochemical parameters and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were studied in a small valley stream in southwestern Pennsylvania. Sampling stations were located upstream and downstream of coal mine drainage input. Due to an alkaline discharge and significant downstream alkalinity the pH below the mine effluent remained between 5.8 and 7.0 throughout the course of this 18 mo study. The major factor affecting the benthic community seemed to be ferric hydroxide deposition. Certain taxa (Plecoptera and Ephemeroptera) were abundant at station sites above the mine discharge, while only those taxa tolerant of polluted conditions, such as Chironomidae and Tubifex, were prevalent at the downstream station sites. An analysis of benthic populations through changes in total numbers, species diversity, and species indicator organisms graphically demonstrated environmental stress within this aquatic ecosystem.     

Residues of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin in the Spring River,Missouri

Contamination of the Spring River in southwest Missouri by 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p -dioxin (TCDD) is believed to result from several well-defined point source waste disposal sites. Analyses of 31 fish samples and samples of crayfish, mussels, other aquatic invertebrates, and sediments collected in 1981-1983 demonstrated a rapid decline in TCDD levels in biota both upstream and downstream of the area of contamination and are believed to indicate a continuing, long term input of TCDD into the river. Mean concentrations of TCDD 0.5 km downstream from the area of contamination were 38 parts per trillion (pptr) in whole fish and 20 pptr in fish fillet; mean concentrations beyond 14 km downstream were below 4 pptr in both whole fish and fillets. Caged mussels (65 day exposure) did not accumulate TCDD (detection limit, 10 pptr). High fish consumption by local sportsmen may indicate maximum permissible concentrations of less than 5 pptr. in fish fillets.     

A mechanism for hydrochloric acid production in cloud

A theoretical model describing the general interaction between atmospheric trace gases, such as S0₂, NH₃, C0₂ and 0₂, chemical reactant gaseous product H₂SO₄ and hydrometeors containing NaCl is proposed to study a possible mechanism for HCl production in non-precipitating cloud and the determination of the pH value of cloud droplets. Four different cloud droplet distributions have been used to estimate the upper limit of the amount of gaseous HCl released into the atmosphere resulting from the evaporation of cloud droplets. It is shown that the acid production and the amount of HCl released depend on the following factors: (a) the temperature of the cloud; (b) the oxidation rates; (c) the ambient concentration of SO₂, NH₃, and H₂SO₄; (d) the life cycle of the cloud; and (e) the liquid content of the cloud. This proposed chemical model also predicts a pH value spectrum depending on the cloud droplet distribution. Field measurements for the dependence of pH value on particle size and spatial distribution of gaseous HCl are recommended.     

基于MCMC方法的WOFOST模型参数标定与不确定性分析

为探究作物生长模型参数的自动标定技术及其不确定性分析方法,该研究以郑州农业气象试验站为试验点,利用融入了snooker更新(snooker update)的DE-MC(differential evolution Markov chain,差分进化马尔科夫链)方法实现对WOFOST(world food studies)作物生长模型的参数标定和不确定性定量评价。snooker更新增加了DE-MC算法中候选样本的多样性,从而实现利用更少的并行链对多维参数空间进行有效采样,较适合于WOFOST模型参数众多的特性。结果表明:相比于模型默认值,采用MCMC(Markov chain Monte Carlo,马尔科夫链-蒙特卡洛)标定后的参数,叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)模拟精度可提高51.40%~53.07%,产量模拟精度提高8.25%~8.88%。标定参数中,SPAN、SLATB070、SLATB040、AMAXTB130和SLATB00的后验分布可近似为高斯分布,其中SPAN的不确定性最低。带入后验参数集合进行模型,LAI在三叶期至返青期之间以及拔节期至抽穗期之间模拟的不确定性较大;产量模拟的不确定性随时间不断增大,至乳熟期前后达到稳定。该方法能够实现对多参数复杂作物生长模型的参数标定和不确定性分析,对作物模型参数估计及提高模拟精度具有重要作用。     

基于贝叶斯推断的DNDC模型参数校正与不确定性评价研究

实现土壤有机碳(SOC)动态模拟结果的不确定性定量评价是农田管理决策成败的关键之一。采用贝叶斯推断和马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法(MCMC),对DNDC模型模拟江苏省宜兴市一个具有22年稻-麦轮作历史的田块的SOC动态变化,进行模型参数校正和模拟结果的不确定性定量评价。结果表明,DNDC模型适宜长期监测田块的SOC动态变化的模拟,但模型的模拟结果存在一定的不确定性;在DNDC模型输入参数数据质量不明的情况下,利用贝叶斯推断和MCMC方法能够有效地实现模型输入参数的自动校正和SOC模拟结果不确定性的定量评价,从而为实现区域或国家尺度农田SOC动态模拟的不确定性定量评价提供理论和方法依据。     

Multi-element analysis of an english peat bog soil

Nineteen elements were quantitatively determined by atomic emission spectroscopy with inductively coupled plasma in peat profiles in Ringinglow Bog, Derbyshire, England. For the elements Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Fe, La, Mn, Ni, Ti, and Zn an enrichment in the upper 5 cm of the peat bogs was found probably caused by anthropogenic influences. The elements Al, Be, Cu, and Pb showed a different distribution pattern with maximum concentration in the 5 to 15 cm layer. The elements Mg, Na, and Sr showed no enrichment in the upper 55 cm of the peat reflecting the constant input of these elements from the sea during the last few centuries. Upper parts (leaves and stems) of the plants investigated (Calluna vulgaris and Eriophorum vaginatum) only represent higher values of Pb compared with the normal element content in other plants. Compared with the results of peat profiles in a Norwegian bog, the concentrations of the comparable elements (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) are much higher in the English peat. Ringinglow Bog seem to be very suitable for further investigations within the scope of a global monitoring programme.     

A data-driven fuzzy approach to simulate the critical shear stress of mixed cohesive/non-cohesive sediments

Purpose

The critical shear stress of cohesive and mixed cohesive/non-cohesive sediments is affected by multiple interacting physical, chemical and biological parameters. There are various mathematical approaches in the scientific literature for computing critical shear stress. However, processes that influence sediment stability are still not fully understood, and available formulas differ considerably. These discrepancies in the literature arise from random system behaviour (natural variability of the sediments), different definitions of the critical shear stress, different measurement techniques and different model frameworks (scope of the parameters, undisturbed versus artificial sediment samples). While analytical approaches fail to address the involved uncertainties, fuzzy logic-based models integrate uncertainty and imprecision.

Materials and methods

With this in mind, a data-driven neuro-fuzzy model (ANFIS) was used to determine the critical shear stress based on sediment characteristics such as wet bulk density and grain size distribution. In order to select model predictors systematically, an automated stepwise regression algorithm was applied. The database for this analysis consisted of 447 measurements of the critical shear stress originating from 64 undisturbed sediment samples.

Results and discussion

The study identified clay content as the primarily controlling variable for erosion resistance. Depending on the characteristics of the sampling location, the bulk density was also selected as a model predictor. In comparison to analytical models that are available in the scientific literature, the fuzzy model achieved higher correlation coefficients between measured and predicted data.

Conclusions

The neuro-fuzzy-model includes uncertainties of input variables and their interactions directly. Thus, it provides a reliable method for the prediction of erosion thresholds of cohesive/non-cohesive mixtures. It was also shown that this approach requires fewer measured variables as well as fewer assumptions than the models it was compared to.

     

Element mass balances for South Carolina Coastal Plain watersheds

Element mass balance estimates for South Carolina Coastal Plain watersheds indicate that fertilizers and liming materials are the major sources for inputs of Ca, Mg, K, Cl, and HCO₃ whereas precipitation is the major input for Na and SO₄. Stream flow is the chief mode of output for all of these elements. A balance between input and output is evident only for Cl. Retentions of 50% or more are shown by Ca, Mg, K, HCO₃ and SO₄ whereas Na shows an apparent net loss. The retention of Ca, Mg and HCO₃ suggests that less than 25% of the dolomitic liming materials applied to the landscape actually dissolve and that the carbonate chemistry of Lower Coastal Plain streams is therefore probably largely controlled by seepage of groundwaters from underlying calcareous aquifers. The retention of K and the loss of Na may be due to cation exchange reactions on soil clays whereas the apparent retention of SO₄ is probably due to reduction to H₂S in floodplain environments and soil adsorption.     

BOD/TOC correlations and their application to water quality evaluation

The error residual for TOC analysis is examined with the result that two BOD₅/TOC models are suggested, both of which use a multiplicative error structure. A comparison of these models with the historically-assumed linear BOD₅/TOC model is created for data collected from the City of Waterloo's Water Pollution Control Plant. The predictive capabilities of the derived BOD₅/TOC models are examined for interpolation and extrapolation potentials for augmenting water quality data information bases. Use of the models to reduce the statistical uncertainty associated with BOD measurements is considered.     

Antibiotic resistant coliform and faecal coliform bacteria in drinking water

Coliform and faccal coliform were isolated from drinking water samples obtained from tap water (TW) and storage tanks (ST) in Baghdad city. All isolates were identified and tested for their resistance to twelve antibiotics. Bacterial identification revealed that Ent. cloacae and Kl. pneumoniae were the predominant organisms from TW and ST water samples, respectively. Overall, 66% of the isolates from TW and 38% from ST were resistant to one or more of the drugs tested. Ampicillin, Carbenicillin, Cefalotin and Colistin resistance in particular were more frequent among bacterial isolates. The overall frequency of multiple antibiotic resistance among bacterial isolates in TW and ST samples were 47% and 33%, respectively. All bacterial strains isolated from drinking water were sensitive to Rifampicin. Results demonstrated the need for periodical bacteriological examination of drinking water and restriction in the use of antibiotics in this country.     

Impact of New York state emission sources on class 1 areas

The ARL-ATAD (Air Resources Laboratory-Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion) Model is used to calculate trajectories of air parcels leaving New York City, Albany, and Buffalo airshed regions and terminating near Federally-mandated Class 1 areas in the Northeastern United States, for which visibility is protected from degradation under the Clean Air Act. The purpose of this study is to provide an estimate of the frequency of occurrence of trajectory end points terminating over or near these environmentally sensitive regions from data for a one year period. Results indicate that these regions are not substantially effected by the air parcels either on an annual or seasonal basis.     

Response surface methodology to understand the anaerobic biodegradation of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in contaminated soil—significance of nitrate concentration and bioaccessibility

Purpose

Problems associated with Organochlorine pesticide (OCP)-contaminated soils have received wide attention. To understand the anaerobic biodegradation process constraints, innovative mathematical analysis methods are effective.

Materials and methods

Response surface methodology (RSM) and Tenax TA extraction method combined with the first-three-compartment model were employed to systematically investigate the role of nitrate concentration and bioaccessibility enhancer (methyl-β-cyclodextrin, MCD) in the anaerobic biodegradation of OCPs in contaminated soil.

Results and discussion

The sole addition of either KNO₃ or MCD could facilitate the anaerobic biodegradation of OCPs. The highest biodegradation for total OCPs, hexachlorocyclohexanes, endosulfans, and chlordanes were 71.6, 82.1, 68.3, and 55.6 %, respectively, when 20 mM KNO₃ and 3.0 % (w/w) MCD were applied simultaneously. As predicted by RSM, the theoretical maximum biodegradation for total OCPs ranged from 60 to 80 % when 20 to 25 mM KNO₃ and >2.5 % (w/w) MCD were applied simultaneously. Tenax TA extraction method demonstrated the enhancement of OCP bioaccessibility caused by MCD addition. Changes in the soil microbial activities also suggested the positive effects of adding suitable amounts of KNO₃ as a cosubstrate to facilitate the anaerobic biodegradation of OCPs.

Conclusions

The amount of KNO₃ and MCD are crucial in influencing OCP biodegradation. RSM was demonstrated to be a powerful tool to estimate and predicting the optimal OCP biodegradation under KNO₃ and MCD application simultaneously.     

Bacterial community structures in rhizosphere microsites of ryegrass (Lolium perenne var. Nui) as revealed by pyrosequencing

Management of soils to facilitate plant beneficial microbial interactions requires basic knowledge of the species composition and microbial community structures in the plant rhizosphere. Here, we examined composition of bacterial communities associated with rhizosphere microsites located at the root tips and mature root zones of Lolium perenne when grown in Chilean ash-derived volcanic soils (Andisols: Freire and Piedras Negras soil series). Community structures were analyzed by pyrosequencing of 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes followed by in silico analysis for phylogenetic assignments (MOTHUR and Visualization tool for Taxonomic Compositions of Microbial Community (VITCOMIC)). Analysis of the community structure revealed significant differences in community structures in relation to the soil series, which differed particularly in the relative abundance of Cyanobacteria and Firmicutes. However, no significant differences were observed with respect to root microsite location in the same Andisol series. Predominant taxa included members of the Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Acidobacteria. Analysis by VITCOMIC showed that dominant bacterial groups comprised only 5 to 10 % of the total bacterial community and the remaining majority of bacteria included low-abundant taxa (Fusobacteria, Thermotogae, Lentisphaerae, Tenericutes, Deferribacteres Spirochaetes, Planctomycetes, Thermotogae, and Deinococcus-Thermus), most of which have not been previously reported or associated with the plant rhizosphere according to GenBank database. The results indicate that most of bacteria in the Chilean Andisols have not been described to the rhizosphere plants and their functional traits are still largely unknown.     

The influence of the herbicide paraquat ‘Gramaxon’ on growth and metabolic activity of three chlorophytes

The acute toxicity of commercial herbicide, Paraquat was determined by 96-hr static bioassay on the freshwater chlorophytes Scenedesmus dimorphus (Trup.) Kuetz., Scenedesmus quadricauda (Trup.) de Brebisson and Ankistrodesmus falcatus (Cord) Ralfs. The 96-hr EC50 values of Paraquat for reducing growth and metabolic products of the three algae were determined. The number of days required for cell division increased with increasing Paraquat concentration. The three algae and their test parameters respond differently to Paraquat. Scenedesmus dimorphus was the most susceptible alga and the chlorophyll a was the most sensitive response parameter. On the other hand, the dry weight of the test algae was the most resistant parameter. It was observed that Paraquat has inhibitory effect on the primary producers.