Prospects for biodiversity

Assuming no radical transformation in human behavior, we can expect important changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2050. A considerable number of species extinctions will have taken place. Existing large blocks of tropical forest will be much reduced and fragmented, but temperate forests and some tropical forests will be stable or increasing in area, although the latter will be biotically impoverished. Marine ecosystems will be very different from today's, with few large marine predators, and freshwater biodiversity will be severely reduced almost everywhere. These changes will not, in themselves, threaten the survival of humans as a species.     

Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.     

海南生物多样性研究展望

从全球范围来说,生物多样性的保护和研究大多强调要以热带地区和海洋珊瑚礁区域作为重点;在中国,这种情况似乎也不例外.海南是我国为数不多的几个热带区域之一,虽然有关自然条件与自然资源综合性和专业性的考察曾进行过多次,但从生物多样性的角度来看还有大量工作要做.     

Interoperability of biodiversity databases: biodiversity information on every desktop

Data about biodiversity are either scattered in many databases or reside on paper or other media not amenable to interactive searching. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) is a framework for facilitating the digitization of biodiversity data and for making interoperable an as-yet-unknown number of biodiversity databases that are distributed around the globe. In concert with other existing efforts, GBIF will catalyze the completion of a Catalog of the Names of Known Organisms and will develop search engines to mine the vast quantities of biodiversity data. It will be an outstanding tool for scientists, natural resource managers, and policy-makers.