Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting

In these times of rapidly changing climate, the science of detecting and modeling shifts in the ranges of tree species is advancing of necessity. We briefly review the current state of the science on several fronts. First, we review current and historical evidence for shifting ranges and migration. Next, we review two broad categories of methods, focused on the spatial domain, for modeling potential range shifts and future suitable habitat: empirical species-distribution models and more process-based simulations. We propose long-term demography studies as a complementary approach in the time domain when sufficient data are available. Dispersal and successful migration into newly suitable habitat are key mechanisms constraining range shifts. We review three approaches to estimating these processes, followed by a discussion of the potential for assisted migration. We conclude that there have been significant recent advances on several fronts but there are still large uncertainties that need further research.     

Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.     

Future climate risk and urban tree inventories in Australian cities: Pitfalls,possibilities and practical considerations

Urban tree inventories are useful tools to assess the environmental and socio-economic services provided by urban forests. These inventories enable the evaluation of the climate change risk to urban forests, and governments rely on such inventories for urban planning and management. Here, we assessed the future climate risk of Australia and the state of urban tree inventories across 116 local government areas (LGAs), representing 21 % of the country’s LGAs and encompassing 55 % of the national human population. We evaluated projected changes in temperature and precipitation by 2050 for each LGA and conducted a survey to obtain information on the extent and types of data available in existing urban tree inventories. Additionally, we compiled demographic, socio-economic, and geographical data for all LGAs to explore correlates with tree inventory status. Temperature increases in 2050 were predicted in all LGAs, with higher latitude and smaller LGAs identified to undergo greater increases in temperature compared to larger and lower latitude LGAs. Decreases in seasonal precipitation were predicted for 97 LGAs. Seventy-six (66 %) of surveyed LGAs had urban tree inventories, which most commonly included trees along streets and in parks. Sixty-one LGAs record information on tree mortality, while 31 LGAs dynamically update their inventories. The presence of an inventory and the area it covered were positively associated with human population density. More than 30 years ago, in 1988, John Gray wrote that “insufficient statistics were available in Australia to provide an accurate picture of the urban forest estate”. Our research shows there has not been a significant advance in the adoption and use of urban forest inventories over the past three decades. Long-term, dynamically updated inventories are crucial for urban forest management to inform planting choices to support sustainable and resilient cities.     

Quantification of the environmental effectiveness of nature-based solutions for increasing the resilience of cities under climate change

Nature-based solutions (NBSs) enhance the potential for mitigation and adaptation to climate change in cities. Among the environmental benefits offered by these measures, enhanced biodiversity, increased carbon storage, reduction of extreme temperatures, and pluvial flood control are crucial. The purpose of this study was to establish an integrated methodology for quantifying the benefits of NBSs and complementary measures and to apply it in a neighbourhood of Donostia-San Sebastián (Spain), where two alternative designs that incorporated NBSs and complementary measures were designed. Then, the individual effectiveness of the four variables was measured using both in-situ measurements and modelling approaches. For the integrated effectiveness, a multi-criteria decision analysis was employed. Both the ‘feasible’ design and the ‘ideal’ one led to an increase in biodiversity (46 and 108 %, respectively) and carbon storage (50 and 130 %, respectively). When considering each measure independently, putting soil provided the highest benefits for carbon capture and biodiversity; meanwhile, planting woody species and installing light-coloured permeable pavements and water fountains reduced the mean radiant temperature by 26.5 K and the air temperature by 0.5 and 2.5 K, respectively, in specific places. Finally, the importance of quantifying the multiple environmental benefits of NBSs for the selection of climate-smart options in urban planning has been highlighted.     

Urban forests as a strategy for transforming towards healthy cities

Urban forests provide multiple ecosystem services for city dwellers, amongst which improving public health via mitigating mental stresses and providing attractive spaces for diverse physical activities has attracted increasing attention from scholars and policy makers within the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic as well as urgently-needed post-pandemic urban transformation towards healthy cities. This short communication summarizes existing empirical evidence pertinent to the linkage between urban forests and public health maintenance and improvement, highlights three underlying mechanisms, i.e., physiological, psychological, and immunological pathways, and outlines practical implications for the establishment and management of urban forests as a strategy for planning healthy cities.     

Changing landscapes to accommodate for climate change impacts: a call for landscape ecology

Predictions of climate change suggest major changes in temperature, rainfall as well as in frequency and timing of extreme weather, all in varying degrees and patterns around the world. Although the details of these patterns changes are still uncertain, we can be sure of profound effects on ecological processes in and functioning of landscapes. The impact of climate change will affect all types of land use, ecosystem services, as well as the behavior of humans. The core business of Landscape Ecology is the interaction of landscape patterns and processes. Most of these interactions will be affected by changing climate patterns, so clearly within the focus of our science. Nevertheless, climate change received little attention from landscape ecologists. Are we missing the boat? Why is it that our science does not contribute to building a knowledge base to help solving this immense problem? Why is there so little attention paid to adaptation of landscape to climate change? With this editorial article IALE would like to receive inputs from the Landscape Ecology scientific community in related research on adaptation of landscapes to climate change, on tools or approaches to help landscape planners and stakeholders to this new challenge where landscape ecology can play a key role.     

Tree and impervious cover change in U.S. cities

Paired aerial photographs were interpreted to assess recent changes in tree, impervious and other cover types in 20 U.S. cities as well as urban land within the conterminous United States. National results indicate that tree cover in urban areas of the United States is on the decline at a rate of about 7900 ha/yr or 4.0 million trees per year. Tree cover in 17 of the 20 analyzed cities had statistically significant declines in tree cover, while 16 cities had statistically significant increases in impervious cover. Only one city (Syracuse, NY) had a statistically significant increase in tree cover. City tree cover was reduced, on average, by about 0.27 percent/yr, while impervious surfaces increased at an average rate of about 0.31 percent/yr. As tree cover provides a simple means to assess the magnitude of the overall urban forest resource, monitoring of tree cover changes is important to understand how tree cover and various environmental benefits derived from the trees may be changing. Photo-interpretation of digital aerial images can provide a simple and timely means to assess urban tree cover change to help cities monitor progress in sustaining desired urban tree cover levels.     

Simulated effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and changing climate on the successional characteristics of Alpine forest ecosystems

Possible effects of changing climate and increasing CO₂ on forest stand development were simulated using a forest succession model of the JABOWA/FORET type. The model was previously tested for its ability to generate plausible community patterns for Alpine forest sites ranging from 220 m to 2000 m a.s.l., and from xeric to mesic soil moisture conditions. Each model run covers a period of 1000 yrs and is based on the averaged successional characteristics of 50 forest plots with an individual size of 1/12 ha. These small forest patches serve as basic units to model establishment, growth, and death of individual trees. The simulated CO₂ scenario assumes linear climate change as atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases from 310 l/l to 620 l/l and finally to 1340 l/l. Direct effects of increasing CO₂ on tree growth were modeled using tree-ring and growth chamber data. The simulation experiment proved to be a useful tool for evaluating possible vegetation changes that might occur under CO₂-induced warming. On xeric sites from the colline to the high montane belt, the simulated climate change causes drastic soil water losses due to elevated evapotranspiration rates. This translates into a significant biomass decrease and even to a loss of forest on xeric low-elevation sites. Biomass gains can be reported from mesic to intermediate sites between 600 and 2000 m a.s.l. Increasing CO₂ and warming alters the species composition of the simulated communities considerably. In today's montane and subalpine belt an invasion of deciduous tree species can be expected. They outcompete most conifers which in turn may migrate to today's alpine belt. Some of these changes occur as early as 40 yrs after climate begins to change. This corresponds to a mean annual warming of 1.5°C compared with today's mean temperatures.