Evaluating urbanization,fragmentation and land use/land cover change pattern in Istanbul city,Turkey from 1971 TO 2002

Spatiotemporal analysis of landscape dynamics is crucial in formulating an appropriate set of actions in landscape management. This paper presents a large scale analysis of the spatiotemporal structure of Istanbul, a highly urbanized city in Turkey, from 1971 to 2002 using forest cover type maps analysed with geographical information systems (GIS) and a spatial statistics programme. The quantitative evidence indicated that increasing population and expanding urbanization caused drastic changes to the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use/land cover pattern in Istanbul. There was a net increase of 5387·3 ha in total forested areas (1·0 per cent) due to mainly reforestation activities even though the population increased three times over a 31‐year period. Increase in number of patches and decrease in mean patch size together demonstrated that the landscape developed into a more fragmented structure that would negatively affect biodiversity and the resilience of the ecosystems. In conclusion, plain increase in forest areas may not always be a favourable situation. The quality, composition and the configuration of forest landscape should also be analysed to present the dynamics of ecosystem in terms of ecological and economical sustainability over a longer time and larger area. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land‐use change in two Nepalese watersheds: GIS and geomorphometric analysis

Accurate measurement of land‐use/land‐cover and geomorphometric parameters is important for evaluating watershed conditions, yet these are surprisingly difficult quantities to measure accurately over large areas. Watershed analysis based on the geographic information system (GIS) was carried out in two watersheds in the western development region of Nepal. Land‐use maps were prepared after interpretation of 1978 and 1996 aerial photographs. Digital data for deriving geomorphometric parameters were prepared from topographical maps of scale 1: 25 000. The dynamics of land‐use and land‐cover change within the Mardi and Fewa watersheds were investigated by performing spatial analysis of digital land‐use maps in ArcView 3.1 desktop environment. There was a net increase in forest cover of 2ċ4 per cent and 1ċ1 per cent in the Mardi and Fewa watersheds respectively, with a corresponding decrease in shrub and rainfed agriculture. Land use was found to be highly dynamic with significant internal trading among the land‐use classes. A significant area under agriculture in 1978 was found abandoned in 1996 in both watersheds most likely due to increased out migration of the labour force. Geomorphometric parameters such as hypsometric curves, hypsometric integrals (HI), drainage density and length of overland flow were analysed to explain the watershed conditions. The results of geomorphometric analysis revealed that the watersheds have been subjected in the past to high erosion and are still susceptible to lateral surface erosion hence soil degradation. Some suggestion for management can be derived from this study. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring land use change in the Çeşme coastal zone,Turkey using aerial photographs and satellite imaging

Humans change the landscapes and especially the coastal zones for their requirements. The aim of the study was to analyse land use changes in the Çeşme coastal zone, Turkey, during a 48‐year period (1957–2005) using remote sensing and GIS. In this study, land use changes in the Çeşme coastal zone were analysed using the four sets of land use maps derived from aerial photographs and classified satellite image taken in the years 1957, 1976, 1995 and 2005. Post‐classification algorithm change detection was applied to observe land use changes during three time periods: Period 1 (1957–1976), Period 2 (1976–1995) and Period 3 (1995–2005). The results showed that natural land cover and agricultural lands decreased and built‐up area increased throughout the study area during the 48‐year period between 1957 and 2005. Furthermore, land use change was successively increased in Period 1, Period 3 and Period 2. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land‐use change in subalpine grassland soils: Effect on particulate organic carbon fractions and aggregation

Abandonment of mountain grassland often changes vegetation composition and litter quantity and quality, but related effects on labile soil organic matter (SOM) are largely unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of grassland management and abandonment on soil carbon distribution in light (< 1.6 g cm^–3) particulate organic matter (POM) and aggregation along a gradient of management intensity including hay meadows, pastures, and abandoned grasslands. The reduction of management intensity is an interregional phenomenon throughout the European Alps. We therefore selected sites from two typical climate regions, namely at Stubai Valley, Austria (MAT: 3°C, MAP: 1097 mm) and Matsch Valley, Italy (MAT: 6.6°C, MAP: 527 mm), to evaluate effects of land‐use change in relation to climate. Free water‐floatable and free POM (wPOM, fPOM), and an occluded POM fraction (oPOM), were isolated from three water‐stable aggregate size classes (2–6.3 mm, 0.25–2 mm, < 0.25 mm) using density fractionation. Aggregate mean weight diameter slightly decreased with decreasing management intensity. In contrast to absolute POM‐C, fPOM‐C increased in aggregates at both sites with abandonment. Because the oPOM‐C was less affected by abandonment, the ratio of oPOM‐C : fPOM‐C shifted from > 1 to < 1 from meadow to abandoned grassland in aggregates at both sites and thus independent of climate. This suggests that in differently managed mountain grasslands free and occluded POM are functionally different SOM fractions. In bulk soil, the oPOM‐C : fPOM‐C ratio is better suited as an indicator for the response of SOM to management reduction in subalpine grasslands than the total soil C, absolute or relative POM‐C content.     

Global coffee market influence on land‐use and land‐cover change in the Western Ghats Of India

In this study, we used image‐processing techniques to examine the spatial pattern of land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change that occurred in the coffee growing area in the Western Ghats of India during the international coffee crisis in the 1990s. The study also ascertains the driving forces of these changes using qualitative research methods that include archival studies and interviews of knowledgeable individuals. We analyzed Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) for 1991 and Landsat ETM+ for 2002 to quantify LULC. Historical land‐use changes in different land ownership regimes were also analyzed. Global coffee market fluctuations were found to be the major cause of landscape change in the study region. When the global coffee prices increased, more forested areas were cleared for coffee cultivation. Failure of global coffee market forced farmers to convert land from subsistence farming (rice) to short‐period commercial crops like ginger. This also resulted in land degradation in rice paddies. For the farmers in the Western Ghats, LULC decisions are one of the methods used to cope with the vulnerability created due to the international coffee crisis. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating land use/land cover changes and fragmentation in the Camili forest planning unit of northeastern Turkey from 1972 to 2005

Changes in land use/land cover have important consequences on the management of natural resources including soil and water quality, global climatic systems and biodiversity. This study analysed the spatial and temporal pattern of land use/land cover change in the Camili forest planning unit that includes the Camili Biosphere Reserve Area within the Caucasian hotspot, in the northeast corner of Turkey. To assess the patterns during a 33‐year period, the necessary data were obtained from forest stand maps and evaluated with Geographic Information Systems and FRAGSTATS. Results showed that the total forested areas increased from 19 946·5 ha (78·6% of the study area) in 1972 to 20 797·3 ha (81·9 per cent) in 2005 with a slight net increase of 851 ha. Softwood cover types (411·8 ha) completely transitioned to other cover types over 33‐year period. In terms of spatial configuration, the total number of forest fragments increased from 172 to 608, and mean size of forest patch (MPS) decreased from 147·7 ha to 41·8 ha during the period. Nearly 84 per cent of the patches in 1972 and 93 per cent of them in 2005 generally seem to concentrate into 0–100 ha patch size class, indicating more fragmented landscape over time that might create a risk for the maintenance of biodiversity of the area. There were apparent trends in the temporal structure of forest landscape, some of which may issue from mismanagement of the area, social conflict, and illegal utilization of forest resources due to ineffective forest protection measurements. The study revealed that it is important to understand both spatial and temporal changes of land use/land cover and their effects on landscape pattern to disclose the implications for land use planning and management. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

福建省土地适宜性及使用变化研究

To present the current status of land quality and distribution and the trends in land use change, the physical suitability of cropland and forestland and the associated changes in Fujian Province were evaluated and analyzed using data obtained from geographical information systems （GIS） and remote sensing （RS）. Of the total land area of Fujian Province, first class suitable cropland accounted for only 4.21%, whereas unsuitable cropland accounted for 84.78%. The percentage of first class suitable cropland in the southeastern region （5.32%） was much higher than that in the northwestern area （2.91%）. Only 13.63% of the existing cropland area consisted of first class cropland and 70.08% was classified as unsuitable for cultivation. Of the total land area of Fujian Province, the first class forestland comprised 55.25% and the unsuitable forestland （including third class） comprised 21.2%. The percentage of unsuitable forest area in the existing forestland was only 5.5%. From 1996 to 2001, cropland and unused land decreased significantly, whereas forestland and land used for urban and transport increased rapidly. Therefore, the major tasks ahead will be the land development for full grain production potential, the better coordination of allocating land to different uses, and the regulation inappropriate activities that damage agricultural ecosystems.     

基于网格单元的乌鲁木齐市土地覆被/利用时空变化

随着城市化进程在全球范围内的快速推进,对城市区域土地覆被/土地利用变化产生影响。采用1990、2000和2011年3期Landsat TM5遥感数据,提取乌鲁木齐市土地覆被/土地利用信息,并将各期用地分类数据分别转入250 m×250 m的矢量网格单元,计算每个网格单元内各类用地面积占网格单元面积比例的变化,探讨乌鲁木齐市1990—2011年土地覆被/土地利用时空变化特征及驱动因素,并通过相关和回归分析,研究1990—2011年各用地类型之间相互转移和替代的关系。结果表明:1)1990—2011年乌鲁木齐市城市快速扩展,大面积裸地和绿地转化为建设用地,建设用地持续增加,从1990年157.37 km~2增加到2011年的444.89 km~2,裸地持续减少,绿地先减少后增加,水体则呈现缓慢增长的趋势。2)研究区内不同区域和方向由于受到地形条件、政策、城市规划以及道路交通网络等因素的影响,土地覆被/土地利用呈现出不同的时空变化趋势,建成区老城区内部呈现挖潜的集约式增长,外围则是蔓延式扩展。该研究对该地区城市建设和发展具有借鉴意义。     

Land‐use evolution and degradation in Lesvos (Greece): a historical approach

An analysis has been undertaken of the land‐use evolution in the island of Lesvos for the last 5000 years, based on historical and archaeological documents and recent soil and vegetation survey data. A series of maps were compiled using historical documents for the period from 3300 bc to 1886 bc and vegetation field survey data for the period from 1886–1996. A soil survey (scale 1:50 000) was conducted in 1996 in order to relate the land‐use changes to the present physical environment. Cultivation of the land started around 3300 bc and intensified during the 18th century bc . During the Roman period forests were already significantly reduced to satisfy the increasing demands for agricultural products, timber and heating. In the Byzantine period (4th–15th century), vineyards and pastures expanded, mainly by clearing the forests. Olive plantations increased during the 13th century, motivated by the allocation of subsidies. During the first centuries of the Ottoman period, there was a further expansion of olive groves and pastures by reducing forests, while vineyards declined. Great changes occurred in the last century in the geographical distribution and the total area occupied by the various types of land use. Olive groves significantly expanded and were redistributed covering more fertile and productive land on hilly areas by clearing mainly pine forests. Oak forests increased on previous pasture areas. Today, pasture is the main type of land use in hilly areas. These previously forested areas have been cleared without any accompanying measures against soil erosion. This highly degraded land with shallow and severely eroded soils is not able to sustain any profitable agricultural use or natural forest. However, areas cultivated with olives remained sustainable for more than seven centuries without being significantly degraded. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land‐use and cover changes (1988–2002) around budongo forest reserve,NW Uganda: implications for forest and woodland sustainability

Land‐use and cover changes around Budongo Forest Reserve (BFR) were analysed from multi‐temporal LandSat images (1988 and 2002) and associated field‐based studies in 2003–2004. Three major land‐use and cover classes: forest/woodland, sugarcane plantations and grassland/shifting‐cultivation/settlements were clearly discriminated. The area under sugarcane cultivation increased over 17‐fold, from 690 ha in 1988 to 12729 ha in 2002, with a concomitant loss of about 4680 ha (8·2 per cent) of forest/woodland, mainly on the southern boundary of BFR. Land‐use and cover changes were a result of (a) agricultural expansion, (b) increasing human population, exacerbated by large influxes of refugees, (c) conflicts of interest and political interference in the management of BFR and (d) unclear land tenure. Agriculture is the main land‐use practice and source of income to local people, with commercial sugarcane and tobacco as the primary cash crops. Individual smallholder sugarcane plantations covered distances ranging from 30 to 1440 m along the BFR edge, with no buffer zone, resulting in direct conflicts between farmers and forest wild animals. There is an ever‐increasing need for more land for agricultural expansion, resulting in continued loss of forest/woodland on private/communal lands and encroachment into BFR. This unsustainable agricultural expansion and the local people's perception of BFR as an obstacle to agriculture, threatens the conservation of its threatened wild plants (e.g. Raphia farinifera) and the endangered chimpanzees. Therefore, their sustainable management for both development and conservation will require strong and incorruptible institutions that will seek a balance between resource exploitation and conservation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐factorial causes of land‐use change: land‐use dynamics in the agropastoral village of Im Mial,northwestern Syria

Land‐use dynamics in drylands are complex processes. In the context of a typical agropastoral village in northwestern Syria Im Mial, the effects of demographic and social changes, reduced soil productivity, changes in agricultural technologies and historical events on land use and land productivity are examined. Decreasing yields, mainly the result of reduced fallow periods and low investments in the land, and the deterioration of the grazing resources are the two main signs of the loss of land productivity in the area. The growing population forces the villagers to practise continuous rainfed barley cultivation with no or only occasional fallow, and without any application of plant nutrients. Also, technological changes, from the use of donkey ploughs and hand harvesting to less labour‐intensive and time‐consuming cultivation practices with tractors and combine harvesters, and the increased importance of stubble in the livestock diet have contributed to the reduction of the fallow periods. The villagers attribute the yield decreases mainly to the low rainfall in the area. The high rainfall variability discourages the fallowing of fields because continuous cultivation maximizes the chances for good harvests in years with high rainfall. There is also an expansion of cultivation into the less fertile and sloping traditional grazing areas. Population growth, increased numbers of livestock and the expansion of cultivated land into grazing areas has also put pressure on the grazing resources of the village. The possession of livestock is seen as a sign of wealth and the villagers aim to have large flocks of animals. For them, livestock is also an important means for investment of cash earned from off‐farm work, which is the main source of income for most of the households in the village. There is a recent trend of increasing levels of crop‐livestock integration with less free grazing that produces higher return to the land users. This may also have a positive effect on the restoration and conservation of the degraded natural traditional grazing grounds. The stabilization and productive use of the land resources in this dry environment requires the combined and interdisciplinary effort from both the land‐users and the policy‐makers. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal migration and land‐use change in Ghana

When farmers migrate yearly to a village to carry out intense farming during the rainy season, and thereafter return to a more permanent place of abode this is referred to as seasonal migration. The impact of such migration on land‐use/land‐cover change in an area within the Volta Basin of Ghana was examined using satellite image analysis and socioeconomic surveys. The most drastic land‐cover change involved the conversion of woodland to agricultural land, while there was also a general transition to less vegetation cover. Socioeconomic surveys revealed that most of the migration occurred during the post‐structural adjustment period in Ghana with declining soil fertility accounting for the highest per cent of causes of migration. Multiple regression results highlighted the role of population size and distribution, marketing of agricultural produce and technological evolution of the household in determining agricultural land‐use change. Policy initiatives that could lead to environment conservation are suggested. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2000-2015年四川省南充市土地利用/覆被变化及其驱动因素

[目的]对四川省南充市15 a间土地利用/覆被的时空变化特征及其驱动因素进行分析,为南充市的生态环境建设与可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法]基于南充市2000,2010,2015年3期Landsat影像和QuickBird高精度遥感数据,计算2000—2015年土地利用/覆被转移矩阵和土地利用/覆被状况指数。[结果]①近15 a来,南充市的土地利用/覆被类型以耕地和林地为主,约占研究区面积的80%,但各土地利用/覆被类型间都有不同程度的相互转换。②研究期内,林地面积增加1006.2 km~2,主要由耕地和草地转化而来;建设用地面积增加965.4 km~2,多由水体和耕地转化而来,而耕地、草地和水体面积分别减少了1 549.8,307.9,90.4 km~2。③近15 a来,南充市土地利用/覆被状况指数变化表明,林地和建设用地呈转好趋势(土地利用/覆被状况变化率为正值),耕地呈转差趋势(土地利用/覆被状况变化率为负值)。[结论] 2000—2015年南充市土地利用/覆被变化明显,其中,地形、人口、城市化水平和退耕还林工程等是造成南充市土地利用/覆被变化的主要驱动因素。     

元谋干热河谷土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响(简报)

为了研究土地利用变化对区域生态系统服务价值的影响,该文以金沙江干熟河谷的元谋县为例,采用遥感与地理信息系统技术,利用LANDSAT TM影像,分析从1986～2000年间的土地利用变化情况,根据谢高地的生态服务价值系数对区域土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值进行评估,并对其进行了敏感系数(CS)分析.结果表明:研究区在1986～2000年之间,耕地、草地、水域和未利用土地面积均呈现减少的趋势,而林地和建设用地面积呈增加趋势;元谋县2000年的生态系统服务价值比1986年有所提高,土地利用变化使研究区生态资产增加了0.0399亿元,这主要是林地面积增加以及林地的生态价值系数最高的原因所至;敏感性系数分析表明本研究采用的谢高地生态价值系数是合理的.     

基于多时相遥感影像分析的城市土地利用/覆盖变化与热环境演变--以徐州市为例

以1987,1994,2000和2005年共4期的Landsat TM遥感影像为数据源,利用先进的决策树分类法获取徐州市土地利用/覆盖信息,通过单通道算法反演地表亮温获取城市热场分布与热环境变化信息,采用土壤调节植被指数SAVI定量描述研究区植被覆盖变化,并综合采用这些信息对城市热环境演变与城市扩展、植被覆盖变化的关系进行了综合分析.结果表明,利用Landsat TM数据结合决策树分类方法,是获取土地覆盖/利用的有效方法.通过计算地表辐射亮温来研究城市热环境变化是合适的,SAVI等因子与城市热环境显著相关,能够有效地定量描述城市扩展及其生态环境响应.研究结果可服务于城市环境保护与人居环境改善.     

Impact of land use and land cover change on environmental degradation in lake Qinghai watershed,northeast Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau

Lake Qinghai, the largest saline lake in China, covers 4234 km² (2007) with a catchment area of 29 660 km² on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. The ecosystem of the lake is extremely vulnerable and sensitive to global climate change and human interference. However, little information is available on land use/cover change (LUCC) in Lake Qinghai watershed. Using a geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), this study analysed land use and land cover change pattern in Lake Qinghai watershed between 1977 and 2004 and discussed major environmental issues in this area. LUCC analysis indicated that grassland (63 per cent) and water body (18 per cent) dominated in the watershed and the magnitude of the land use and land cover change was generally low; the percentage of the change of various land types relative to the total area was less than 1 per cent. From 1977 to 2004, cropland, sandy land, bare rock, salinized land, swampland and built‐up areas increased by 0·43, 0·35, 0·24, 0·06, 0·03 and 0·03 per cent of the total area, respectively; in contrast, water body, grassland and woodland decreased by 0·99, 0·22 and 0·05 per cent, respectively. Moreover, the area of LUCC tended to expand from places around the lake to the upper reaches of the watershed during the last three decades. The LUCC transition pattern was: woodland converted to grassland, grassland converted to cropland and water body converted to sandy land. Lake level decline and grassland degradation are major ecological and environmental problems in Lake Qinghai watershed. The level and area of the lake decreased at the rate of 6·7 cm a⁻¹ and 6·4 km² a⁻¹, respectively, between 1959 and 2007, resulting in sandy land expansion and water quality deterioration. Lake level decline and area shrinkage was mainly attributed to climate change, but grassland degradation was mainly resulted from anthropogenic activities (increasing population, overgrazing and policy). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近10 a青海高原东部土地利用/覆被变化及碳效应

近年来在人类活动的影响下,青海高原东部土地覆盖变化显著,为揭示区域土地利用/覆被变化及其对环境的影响,促进区域可持续发展,以青海高原东部农业区为研究区,采用多时相Landsat TM卫星遥感数据,分析该区域1999－2009年的土地利用格局转变以及由此引起的碳效应变化,以期为青海高原东部土地利用结构与空间配置的低碳优化、科学管理与规划提供参考。首先,利用土地利用变化强度指数分析了青海高原海东市近10 a来的土地利用类型间的变化强度及方向;其次,对研究区主要的8种土地利用转移类型引起的碳效应进行了定量分析。研究结果表明：近10 a来,退耕还林/草等生态工程与西部开发战略的实施,使区域土地利用呈现"3增2减"的整体变化,即林地、建设用地和未利用地面积呈上升趋势,分别增加约67%、56%和1.14%,耕地、草地面积减少,分别减少30%和12%;由于建设用地的扩张,耕地非农化导致的碳排放量增加373.60万t,生态的正向演变（退耕还林/草;草地转林地）和建设用地的复垦退出引起的总碳汇量增加156.04万t,生态的逆向演变（林地/草地转变成耕地;林地转变成草地）引起的碳汇量损失22.85万t。近10 a来区域土地利用/覆被变化导致的碳排放增量高出碳汇增量240.41万t,说明自然和人文因素共同驱动的土地利用变化对青海高原东部的碳平衡和可持续发展产生显著影响。     

基于CA-Markov的哈尔滨市土地利用变化及预测

为探讨哈尔滨城市化进程中土地利用时空演变规律以及驱动机制。该文以1989年、2001年和2007年LandsatTM影像为数据源,借助于地学信息谱图理论,运用RS和GIS技术分析研究区域18a土地利用格局变化,以2007年土地利用格局为基础,利用CA-Markov模型和并引入终极状态概率,预测2025年土地利用情况和平衡状态下土地利用空间分布格局。研究结果表明:区域土地利用格局以耕地为主,其面积比例均超过60%,其次是林地和居民工矿用地;稳定型图谱空间分布广泛,占研究区域总面积比例最大,"耕地→耕地→耕地"是其面积最大的变化图谱,"林地→林地→林地"次之,持续变化型所占比例最小,"未利用地→林地→耕地"是其面积最大的变化图谱;CA-Markov模型预测结果表明从2025年到土地利用终极状态期间,耕地面积持续减少,居民工矿用地持续增加,耕地→居民工矿用地是其主要转化轨迹,其他地类变化量相对较小,基本上处于动态平衡状态中,该文为土地利用合理规划、生态恢复和区域经济发展提供依据。     

基于多源遥感数据的纳板河国家级自然保护区人类活动用地监测

人类活动对自然保护区内的珍稀及濒危野生动植物资源产生威胁。以自然保护区土地利用及其变化作为保护区内人类活动的代表。针对在低纬度热带地区多云雾天气对光学遥感成像产生严重干扰的条件下,如何实现基于多源遥感数据构建高时间、高空间分辨率遥感数据,监测复杂地形及气候环境下的热带雨林环境自然保护区土地利用变化监测,进而分析保护区人类活动这一问题展开研究。采用时空数据融合技术实现了2000年、2004年、2010年和2015年纳板河国家级自然保护区内人类活动(主要为人类活动用地:橡胶林、耕地、建筑用地)和自然地表(水体和自然林)分类识别,结果表明:1)时空数据融合技术能够实现复杂地形以及多云多雾天气条件下的高时空分辨率遥感数据,实现基于该时间序列数据的人类活动用地较高精度识别(2000年、2004年、2010年、2015年的总体分类精度分别为88.13%、86.88%、89.38%、90.63%,Kappa系数分别为0.834 0、0.817 6、0.853 3、0.871 1);2)纳板河国家级自然保护区内2000年至2015年期间,自然林的面积持续减少,橡胶林、耕地及建筑的面积持续增加;3)保护区内人类活动随地形的变化特征是:橡胶林及耕地范围在向坡度较大的地区扩张,大部分橡胶林种植在坡度为13?~24?之间,耕地也在向坡度较大的地区逐步扩张。该研究可为自然保护区监管部门及环境保护研究领域提供技术支持。     

秦淮河流域1980-2010年土地利用变化及驱动机制

[目的]研究近30a来秦淮河流域不同时期土地利用/覆被变化特征及驱动力,为秦淮河流域的生态经济系统可持续发展和流域管理提供科学依据。[方法]利用GIS功能对秦淮河地区1980,1995,2000,2005,2008,2010年土地利用现状图进行叠加转换,建立土地利用变化转移矩阵,在此基础上分析秦淮河地区近30a来的土地利用变化特征,并结合相应的社会统计资料分析土地利用变化的驱动力。[结果]流域内耕地面积逐年减少,建设用地面积逐年增加,林草覆盖面积略有减少;土地利用程度变化存在明显的时间差异性,2005—2008期间变化最大;建设用地的增加主要源于耕地的转入,其次是林地、水域;经济发展、人口增长和人民生活水平的提高是该区土地利用/覆被变化的主要驱动力。[结论]城市化发展要素是推动该区建设用地增加、耕地面积减少这一现象的主要驱动力。