气候变化对中国农业生产的影响

未来气候变化下中国农业的稳定事关中国的长远持续发展,国内外气候变化研究界和农业气象研究界对气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的评估未有一致的认识。本文从农业科学角度讨论了气候变化对中国农业生产涉及的气象资源、土地资源、农业生物环境和生态系统的影响,并从作物生长和经济产量形成的角度讨论和分析了气候变化对中国种植业、养殖业不同产业行业的影响,气候变化中一些趋势性变化因不同作物和不同区域而异,例如温度和CO2浓度变化对农业生产的影响因不同作物和不同时相而异,反之,极端性气候／天气事件对农业不同行业的生产都显得危害很大,而气候变化中区域性干旱将成为我国未来农业生产愈来愈严重的挑战。气候变化对中国农业生产的影响甚为复杂,一些气候变化因子的实际影响还存在很大不确定性。当前,定量评价气候变化对中国农业生产的影响还存在困难。     

作物生长模型的应用研究进展

作物生长模型不仅能够进行单点尺度上作物生长发育的动态模拟,而且能够从系统角度评价作物生长状态与环境要素的关系。本文通过梳理当前作物生长模型应用的诸多研究成果,剖析模型在气候变化对农业生产影响研究、作物生长模型区域应用中的关键问题,总结了当前以作物生长模型为核心的农业决策支持系统开发的研究情况,意在促进作物生长模型在生态、农业、区域气候资源和气候变化等研究中更广泛地应用。结果表明,作物生长模型在国内外的研究与应用广泛而深入,在气候变化背景下,应用作物生长模型进行历史时期气候条件和农业气象灾害对作物生产状况和产量的影响研究已相当广泛且相对成熟。利用全球气候模式（GCM）或区域气候模式（RCM）构建未来气候变化情景,再与作物生长模型耦合已发展成为评估未来气候变化对农业生产影响的重要手段。通过集成与整合多作物生长模型、多气候模式集合模拟、优化气候模拟数据订正方法可有效降低气候变化对农业生产影响评估的不确定性。遥感数据同化技术能够将站点模型运用到区域尺度上评价不同环境因子对农业生产的影响,拓宽了作物生长模型的应用尺度范围并有效提高作物产量估算的精度。以作物生长模型为核心的农业决策支持系统的研究与应用越来越多元化,是辅助农业生产管理和决策的重要工具。然而,由于作物生态系统的复杂性,作物生长模型模拟结果仍存在很大的不确定性,今后对作物生长机理及过程间耦合机制的探索还需加强,以便进一步完善和改进模型,促进作物生长模型更广泛地应用。     

鄱阳湖生态经济区农作物生产碳效率的时空变化

提高农作物生产的碳效率是实现低碳农业的重要途径之一,对我国应对气候变化、实现减排目标有着重要的意义。本研究基于鄱阳湖生态经济区主要农作物生产过程中的碳投入量和产出量,对鄱阳湖生态经济区县域农业碳效率进行了估算,分析了研究区农作物生产碳效率的时空变化。结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖生态经济区农作物碳的生产效率从2000年的9.27 kg·kg-1(CE)增长到2010年的10.16 kg·kg-1(CE),经济效率由2000年的10.73 Yuan·kg-1(CE)下降到2010年的9.25 Yuan·kg-1(CE),生态效率从2000年的1.76 kg(C)·kg-1(CE)上升至2010年的1.94 kg(C)·kg-1(CE);(2)鄱阳湖生态经济区农作物碳效率的空间分布呈现较为明显的集聚特征,主要年份高效率区大都集中于该区的东南部地区,低效率区主要集中在九江地区各县(市);(3)在碳投入一定的情况下,农作物碳的生产效率受农业发展水平和农作物经济产量的影响,经济效率受粮食产量和价格的影响,生态效率则主要受农业碳产出的影响。(4)鄱阳湖生态经济区大部分县(市)为碳汇区,且高碳汇区逐年增多。     

作物植硅体形态的应用及其封存有机碳研究进展

农田生态系统是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,在维系生命的生长发育和环境的动态平衡等方面起着至关重要的作用,在其生长发育和环境演变的过程中储存大量的环境变化信息,能够反映古农业的发展变迁。植硅体是一种长期稳定存在于土壤中的非晶质二氧化硅颗粒物,它可以指示气候变化。近年来,植硅体分析主要应用在农业考古、古气候重建、生物地球化学循环和全球碳汇潜力估算的研究中。世界上作物分布广泛,作物栽培历史悠久,研究作物植硅体与植硅体碳,对探讨农业起源与发展,估算农田生态系统植硅体碳汇潜力,应对全球气候变化具有重要意义。本文在查阅国内外与作物植硅体研究相关文献的基础上,综述了作物植硅体的形态研究、植硅体在考古学中的应用、作物植硅体碳含量与分布、碳汇潜力以及植硅体碳汇在全球碳汇中的贡献,阐明了作物植硅体未来的研究方向。1）不同作物产生的植硅体形态不同,而且对作物植硅体形态的研究较多处于优势的禾本科中,其他作物的研究较少;2）作物植硅体碳含量与其本身的固碳能力和效率有关,不完全由植硅体含量的多少决定,此外,植硅体碳含量的多少也可能受生长环境和植物基因型的影响;3）不同生态系统中气候、地表植被、土壤环境等诸多因素直接或间接地影响区域植硅体的碳汇潜力;4）农田生态系统不同作物植硅体碳汇存在显著差异,施加硅肥或硅-磷复合肥、种植高植硅体含量和高植硅体碳含量的作物等均可显著提高农田生态系统碳汇潜力。今后应进一步研究不同作物植硅体碳汇,以帮助识别过去的农业碳汇,评估当前农业碳汇潜力;加强植物、根系、土壤迁移规律的探讨,进一步分析不同作物植硅体积累与碳汇效应;阐明不同植物吸硅机制、植物根系硅化过程与其植硅体含量、植硅体碳含量间的关系;了解西南喀斯特生态脆弱区农业碳汇潜力,以期为作物科学种植、农田生态系统碳汇估算等提供参考。     

WOFOST模型的发展及应用

作物生长模拟模型已经成为一门新兴的科学,可以为农业资源的管理利用、农业最大收益的获取提供科学的依据。WOFOST(W orld Food Stud ies)模型是荷兰瓦根宁农业大学和世界粮食研究中心共同开发研制的,是模拟特定的土壤和气候条件下一年生作物生长的动态的、解释性模型。WOFOST模型已经在欧洲、非洲以及亚洲的一些地区得到了运用和验证,可用于水稻、玉米、小麦等多种一年生作物的模拟。WOFOST模型可用来分析作物产量风险,不同年份产量的变化,土壤类型及气候变化对产量变化的影响;确定播种策略以及农业机械使用的关键时期;该模型还可用于估计某种作物最大潜在产量,提高灌溉和施肥的增产效益,对生长在不利条件以及地区的作物产量进行预测等。该模型对可持续农业的发展具有积极的指导作用。     

Impact of intensive agricultural management on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the humid tropics

ABSTRACT

The concern about global climate change continues to increase research interest regarding carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the soil. This is based on their role in maintaining soil fertility, which can instead be a source of greenhouse gas emissions if not managed properly, while threatening food security. Humid tropical conditions enable intensive agricultural cultivation with various cropping systems to fulfill the demand for agriculture products. Such climate accelerates the soil organic matter decomposition rate so that it strongly influences soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics. However, inappropriate implementation of intensive agricultural systems that does not consider the balance between carbon and nitrogen input and output, negatively affects soil fertility, mainly decreasing soil organic carbon and total soil nitrogen, changing the composition of carbon and nitrogen owing to the loss of soil organic matter through erosion and leaching, thus, causing soil degradation. Mitigation strategies can be performed by using organic matter and crop residue, crop rotation and improvement of crop pattern, soil tillage and fertilization, cover crops and mulch. Sustainable land management for maintenance of soil organic carbon and total soil nitrogen dynamics should be locally and globally developed and adopted for a more sustainable agricultural system. Recovery of soil capacity to accumulate carbon is a strategic step to reduce the impact of climate change. Hence, an intensive study on efficient soil organic carbon management is required to improve food production and mitigation of climate change to attain sustainable development goals in 2030.     

A modelling analysis of the potential for soil carbon sequestration under short rotation coppice willow bioenergy plantations

Abstract. Rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and their association with global climate change have led to several major international initiatives to reduce net CO₂ emissions, including the promotion of bioenergy crops such as short rotation coppice (SRC) willow. Although the above-ground harvested bio-fuel is likely to be the major contributor to the CO₂ mitigation potential of bioenergy crops, additional carbon may be sequestered through crop inputs into plantation soils.   Here, we describe a process-based model specifically designed to evaluate the potential for soil carbon sequestration in SRC willow plantations in the UK. According to the model predictions, we conclude that the potential for soil carbon sequestration in these plantations is comparable to, or even greater than, that of naturally regenerating woodland. Our preliminary, site-specific model output suggests that soil carbon sequestration may constitute about 5% of the overall carbon mitigation benefit arising from SRC plantations. Sensitivity analyses identified the following factors as the principal controls on rates and amounts of soil carbon sequestration under SRC: carbon inputs (net primary production), decomposition rates of the major soil carbon pools, initial soil carbon content (an inverse relationship with rates of soil carbon sequestration), crop/plantation management, and depth of soil being influenced by the bioenergy crop. Our results suggest that carbon sequestration potential is greatest in soils whose carbon content has been depleted to relatively low levels due to agricultural land use practices such as annual deep ploughing of agricultural soils.     

Meeting the UK's climate change commitments: options for carbon mitigation on agricultural land

Abstract. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to an 8% reduction in CO₂ emissions, compared to baseline (1990) levels, during the first commitment period (2008–2012). However, within the overall EU agreement, the UK is committed to a 12.5% reduction. In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies (Kyoto Article 3.4) and examine the consequences of UK and European policy options on the potential for carbon mitigation.
We show that integrated agricultural land management strategies have considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Our figures suggest the following potentials (Tg yr⁻¹) for each scenario: animal manure, 3.7; sewage sludge, 0.3; cereal straw incorporation, 1.9; no-till farming, 3.5; agricultural extensification, 3.3; natural woodland regeneration, 3.2 and bioenergy crop production, 4.1. A realistic land-use scenario combining a number of these individual management options has a mitigation potential of 10.4 Tg C yr⁻¹ (equivalent to about 6.6% of 1990 UK CO₂-carbon emissions). An important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land, but in order to fully exploit it, policies governing the use of surplus arable land would need to be changed. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the potential is infinite.
The UK will not attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land-use, but since all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting these commitments, agricultural options should be taken very seriously.     

气候变化对中国轮作系统影响的研究进展

轮作耕作方式在提高土地利用率和单位面积作物产量方面发挥了不可替代的作用,加强气候变化对轮作系统影响的理解,揭示其对气候变化的响应规律,是促进轮作生产体系有效应对和适应气候变化的关键。本文梳理了气候变化对轮作系统影响的研究成果和不足,总结当前常用研究手段(作物模型、统计和试验方法)的优缺点,从作物生长发育、种植布局、种植效益、种植风险4个方面阐述了气候变化对轮作系统产生的影响,并对现有的适应性措施以及今后研究重点进行分析,以期为全面深入评估气候变化对轮作系统的影响,以及未来轮作系统的研究和发展提供一定参考和借鉴。已有研究结果表明,气候变化已经影响,而且还将继续影响轮作系统。尽管因研究的时空尺度、方法及轮作模式的不同,研究结果还存在一定差异,但大部分研究表明,在宏观层面上,气候变暖,热量资源增加,使得研究区轮作系统种植界限发生明显北移,导致不同轮作系统的作物布局及种植面积发生改变。微观角度上,气温升高加快了轮作系统内部作物生育进程,导致作物产量下降,也为系统内品种更换提供了可能。热量资源的变化,还导致轮作系统内部所遭遇的气象灾害规律发生变化,传统意义上的低温灾害事件将减少,但是种植界限变动的敏感区内新的低温灾害事件以及极端高温事件则有增加的趋势,从而增加了轮作系统高产、稳产及可持续发展的风险。生产中,通过改变作物布局,选用生育期更长的品种,以及优化管理措施等,可以在一定程度上减缓气候变化对轮作系统的不利影响。但是,由于气候变化和轮作系统的复杂性和多样性,目前研究还存在一定的不足,今后还需结合多种研究手段,开展气候变化对轮作系统影响的机理性、综合性以及系统性研究,提高研究的深度、广度、精度和准确度,以促进和保障其可持续发展。     

环境与人为因子对水稻土有机质变化的影响——以长江中下游平原为例

Changes in soil organic matter (SOM) can affect food security,soil and water conservation,and climate change.However,the drivers of changes in SOM in paddy soils of China are not fully understood because the effects of agricultural management and environmental factors are studied separately.Soil,climate,terrain,and agricultural management data from 6 counties selected based on representative soil types and cropping systems in China were used in correlation analysis,analysis of variance,and cforest modeling to analyze the drivers of changes in SOM in paddy soils in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Plain from 1980 to 2011.The aims of this study were to identify the main factors driving the changes in SOM and to quantitatively evaluate their individual impacts.Results showed that the paddy SOM stock in the study area increased by 12.5％ at an average rate of 0.023 kg m-2 year-1 over the 31-year study period.As a result of long-term rice planting,agricultural management practices had a greater influence than soil properties,climate,and terrain.Among the major drivers,straw incorporation,the most influential driver,together with fertilization and tillage practices,significantly increased the accumulation of SOM,while an increase in temperature significantly influenced SOM decomposition.Therefore,to confront the challenge of rising temperatures,it is important to strengthen the positive effects of agricultural management.Rational fertilizer use for stabilizing grain production and crop straw incorporation are promising measures for potential carbon sequestration in this region.     

东北地区主要粮食作物对气候变化的响应及其产量效应

综述了在全球气候变暖背景下,东北地区农业气候资源、农业气象灾害的变化特征以及主要农作物对气候变化的响应。结果表明,气候变暖给东北地区农业带来的影响利弊共存,主要表现为东北地区主要农作物生长季节温度升高、热量资源增加,适宜农作物生长的时期延长、适种区域扩大,为作物的光温生产潜力以及产量的提高提供了潜在的可能。但由于光照及水资源的限制以及CO2浓度的增加而引发的温室效应,对农作物的产量和品质也产生了负面影响。极端天气事件增加,农作物生态环境恶化,干旱、洪涝、盐碱化速度加快,尤其是近几年受全球变暖的影响,东北地区主要农作物受干旱灾害的影响最为明显。降水总量减少和降水分布不均匀,使东北地区成为受气候变化影响最敏感和脆弱地区之一。     

Biochar application to soil for climate change mitigation by soil organic carbon sequestration

Pyrogenic carbon (C) is produced by incomplete combustion of fuels including organic matter (OM). Certain ranges in the combustion continuum are termed ‘black carbon' (BC). Because of its assumed persistence, surface soils in large parts of the world contain BC with up to 80% of surface soil organic C (SOC) stocks and up to 32% of subsoil SOC in agricultural soils consisting of BC. High SOC stocks and high levels of soil fertility in some ancient soils containing charcoal (e.g., terra preta de Índio) have recently been used as strategies for soil applications of biochar, an engineered BC material similar to charcoal but with the purposeful use as a soil conditioner (1) to mitigate increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) by SOC sequestration and (2) to enhance soil fertility. However, effects of biochar on soils and crop productivity cannot be generalized as they are biochar‐, plant‐ and site‐specific. For example, the largest potential increases in crop yields were reported in areas with highly weathered soils, such as those characterizing much of the humid tropics. Soils of high inherent fertility, characterizing much of the world's important agricultural areas, appear to be less likely to benefit from biochar. It has been hypothesized that both liming and aggregating/moistening effects of biochar improved crop productivity. Meta‐analyses of biochar effects on SOC sequestration have not yet been reported. To effectively mitigate climate change by SOC sequestration, a net removal of C and storage in soil relative to atmospheric CO₂ must occur and persist for several hundred years to a few millennia. At deeper soil depths, SOC is characterized by long turnover times, enhanced stabilization, and less vulnerability to loss by decomposition and erosion. In fact, some studies have reported preferential long‐term accumulation of BC at deeper depths. Thus, it is hypothesized that surface applied biochar‐C (1) must be translocated to subsoil layers and (2) result in deepening of SOC distribution for a notable contribution to climate change mitigation. Detailed studies are needed to understand how surface‐applied biochar can move to deeper soil depths, and how its application affects organic C input to deeper soil depths. Based on this knowledge, biochar systems for climate change mitigation through SOC sequestration can be designed. It is critically important to identify mechanisms underlying the sometimes observed negative effects of biochar application on biomass, yield and SOC as biochar may persist in soils for long periods of time as well as the impacts on downstream environments and the net climate impact when biochar particles become airborne.     

气候变化对农业水管理的影响及应对策略研究

气候变化导致全球年平均气温上升、降水模式变化、河流特性改变、极端气候事件频发等,显现出其对农业水资源和农业生产造成的影响,使全球尤其是干旱和半干旱地区可持续农业发展和现代农业水管理面临重大挑战。该文介绍气候变化下的极端气候事件发生,评价气候变化通过气温和降水的改变以及极端气候事件频度和程度加剧等各种方式对农业用水可利用量和水质以及作物需水造成的影响,阐述气候变化通过水要素对灌溉用水、可用耕地、作物产量带来的影响,综述气候变化对农业水管理的影响及应对策略,提出在气候变化对农业水管理的影响及应对策略研究上,应认真考虑气候变化对农业水管理影响的尺度效应和不确定性,从而有助于因地制宜地制定和合理选用农业水管理应对策略;应积极构建基于多模型集成模式的气候变化对农业水管理影响的综合评估方法,从而有利于改善综合预测评估结果的准确性和可靠性;应深入进行农业水管理应对策略的适应-减缓利弊权衡研究和协同效用分析,从而有效改进和提高应对策略的效用。建议国内应该加强对综合评估方法和效用分析的研究力度。     

Implications of climate change for tillage practice in Australia

The world is experiencing climate change that in no way can be considered normal, and the challenge that this brings to agriculture is twofold. The first challenge relates to the continuing need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that generate the changes to climate. Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory estimates that agriculture produces about one-quarter of Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions (including land clearing). The main gases emitted are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. These gases are derived from high-value components within the agricultural production base, so reducing emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture has the potential to provide production and financial benefits, as well as greenhouse gas reduction. Methane essentially derives from enteric fermentation in ruminants. Nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, on the other hand, are strongly influenced, and perhaps even determined by a range of variable soil-based parameters, of which the main ones are moisture, aerobiosis, temperature, amount and form of carbon, organic and inorganic nitrogen, pH, and cation exchange capacity. Tillage has the potential to influence most of these parameters, and hence may be one of the most effective mechanisms to influence rates of emissions of greenhouse gases from Australian agriculture. There have been substantial changes in tillage practice in Australia over the past few decades – with moves away from aggressive tillage techniques to a fewer number of passes using conservative practices. The implications of these changes in tillage for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases from Australian agriculture are discussed.

The second challenge of climate change for Australian agriculture relates to the impacts of climate change on production, and the capacity of agriculture to adapt where it is most vulnerable. Already agriculture is exposed to climate change, and this exposure will be accentuated over the coming decades. The most recent projections for Australia provided by the CSIRO through the Australian Climate Change Science Programme, indicate that southern Australia can expect a trend to drying due to increased temperatures, reduced rainfalls, and increased evaporative potentials. Extremes in weather events are likely also to become more common. We anticipate that climate change will become an additional driver for continued change in tillage practice across Australia, as land managers respond to the impacts of climate change on their production base, and governments undertake a range of activities to address both emissions reduction and the impacts of climate change in agriculture and land management.     

应对气候变化对未来中国农业生产影响的问题和挑战

通过整合农业科学界从不同行业产业角度和不同的影响方面对气候变化可能带来农业生产影响的分析资料,梳理和辨析了气候变化对农业生产影响的途径和机理,提出了气候变化对中国国家尺度农业影响的“发酵”效应假设：气候变化因子间相互作用与交错叠加,产业的传递和反馈,可能带来不利效应的严重放大;未来气候变化下中国农业面临的基本问题将是：农业技术进步的迟滞性和农业生产能力的波动性,稳定农业生产水平和粮食供应能力将愈来愈困难。讨论和建议了应对气候变化的若干国家战略,这些战略应基于气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的敏感性行业和地区,气候变化的突出性趋势的认识。防患和应对极端性气象灾害事件将成为应对气候变化对农业影响的首要任务,需要加强研究和技术储备,同时迫切需要新的组织和运行机制全面开展气候变化对中国农业生产影响的试验和技术开发研究。     

Enhancing crop productivity for recarbonizing soil

Plants capture atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) for carbon (C) assimilation through photosynthesis, with the photosynthates stored as plant biomass (above- and below-ground plant parts). The C stored as living biomass is a short-term C sequestration strategy, whereas soil organic carbon (SOC) is a long-term C sequestration strategy. In this regard, plant roots are the primary route of C entry into the SOC pool. Through establishing a recalcitrant SOC pool, long-term sequestration can potentially offset the C losses caused by soil degradation in industrial and pre-industrial eras. Over the next 50–100 years, implementing effective agricultural practices could sequester 80–130 GT (10⁹) C as SOC. Carbon, as the primary elemental component of soil organic matter, plays a significant role in shaping the soil’s physical, chemical, and biological properties, ultimately influencing soil biomass productivity. By enhancing crop productivity and biomass production, farmers can increase C sequestration, creating a positive feedback loop that contributes to overall C sequestration. Carbon sequestration has numerous co-benefits, including climate change mitigation, ecosystem health, food security, and farm profitability. Adopting conservation agriculture and site-specific practices and developing crop and pasture genotypes with high yields and C sequestration potential should significantly improve crop productivity and C sequestration simultaneously. This opinion article delves into the nexus between photosynthesis and soil C sequestration, highlighting its significance in enhancing farm productivity while mitigating climate change.     

气候变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物生产潜力的影响

基于四川盆地1961—2018年63个气象台站的逐日气象资料和1981—2018年46个农业气象观测站的主要粮食作物(水稻、玉米和冬小麦)生育期资料,利用逐级订正的方法计算作物气候生产潜力,分析太阳辐射、气温、降水及气候变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的影响,研究旨在为提高区域农业生产力并保障农业可持续发展提供科学依据。结果显示:1961—2018年四川盆地作物多年平均气候生产潜力的分布为水稻由西向东递增,玉米在盆地北部和西南偏高、其他地区偏低,冬小麦南北高、中部低。辐射量减小对3种作物气候生产潜力的影响为负效应;平均气温升高对作物气候生产潜力的影响为正效应;降水量变化是作物气候生产潜力变化出现空间差异的主要原因,降水量增加对作物气候生产潜力的影响为正效应,而降水量减少为负效应。气候变化对水稻气候生产潜力的影响在盆地西南部和北部的部分地区为正效应,其余地区为负效应;气候变化对玉米气候生产潜力的影响在盆地南部和东部的部分地区为正效应,其余地区为负效应;气候变化对冬小麦气候生产潜力的影响在盆地东北部的部分地区为负效应,其余大部地区为正效应。总体来看,气候变化对四川盆地冬小麦气候生产潜力的影响最大,为9.9kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1),而对玉米和水稻的影响分别为-1.4 kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)和0.5 kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)。为了适应气候变化,四川盆地应选育光合效率高和抗旱性强的作物品种,并加强农田管理,以提高农业生产水平并保障粮食安全。     

作物模型应用与遥感信息集成技术研究进展

作物模型和遥感技术以各自独有的优势在作物生产监测、评估及未来预测等方面发挥着关键作用。作物模型与遥感信息集成技术在大尺度、高精准的农业生产监测、评估与预测上具有明显的应用优势和广阔的发展前景。为了促进这些技术在区域尺度上的作物产量预测、农业气象灾害影响评估及农业应对气候变化决策等方面更加广泛地应用,本文采用文献综述的方法,系统归纳了欧洲、美国、澳大利亚及中国作物模型的发展与应用,总结了当前主流的数据集成方法的原理、特点和不足,概述了作物模型与遥感信息集成技术的实际应用,探讨了提升数据集成精度存在的问题,并对未来研究方向进行展望。结果表明,国内外对于作物模型及其与遥感数据集成的研究与应用广泛而深入,利用同化方法能够有效提高作物模型模拟精度,为作物模型实现区域尺度作物生长及产量评估、气候变化对产量影响、农田管理决策等提供技术支撑。作物模型模拟结果及遥感反演数据的不确定性、数据同化策略的多样性以及尺度效应是进一步提高集成系统精度与效率的限制因素。因此,遥感数据多源融合、同化过程多变量协同、作物模型多类型耦合以及数据高性能并行计算是未来作物模型与遥感数据集成研究的发展趋势。     

农田土壤固碳与增产协同效应研究进展

农田土壤固碳是提升土壤肥力、保障和实现农田持续稳定生产能力的关键所在。明确农田土壤固碳与作物增产的协同效应可为不同区域土壤培肥、维持和提升作物产量提供依据。农田土壤固碳明显受到气候、土壤属性、管理措施 (尤其是施肥和耕作)、轮作制度等因素的影响，且与农田作物产量密切相关，二者具有明显的协同效应。农田土壤有机碳与作物增产协同效应存在一定的阈值，且该阈值具有一定的区域差异。东北地区土壤有机碳阈值约为C 44～46 t/hm2，西北和华北地区约为C 22～28 t/hm2，南方地区约为C 33～37 t/hm2。经验方程和模型模拟结果表明，在不同区域，农田土壤每固定C 1.0 t/(hm2·a)有机碳，粮食作物产量可平均提升约0.7 t/hm2，但该响应值在各地区明显受到相应的环境及农田管理措施等因素的影响。深入理解农田固碳过程及其与作物生产力协同作用的机理，是指导不同区域合理培肥、提高土壤肥力、提高养分资源利用效率的关键举措。未来的研究方向和重点是明确不同区域农田土壤可实现的固碳潜力，进一步揭示集约化种植下农田土壤有机碳的固存机制，关注深层土壤有机碳固定对作物增产潜力的影响及贡献，并深入分析表征环境、人为因素等对农田土壤固碳增产协同效应的影响机制及调控原理。     

气候变化背景下武川主要作物生产水足迹变化分析

生产水足迹(WFP)是指生产单位产品所消耗的水资源,一般用单位质量农产品所需要的水的体积来表示作物生产水足迹。气候变化对生产水足迹的影响是农业生产者关心的重要科学问题。本文以内蒙古自治区武川县主要作物马铃薯、春小麦为例,基于1983-2010年气象数据及生育期资料,修正作物系数,应用CROPWAT模型,计算作物生产水足迹,分析气候变化对作物生产水足迹的影响。结果表明：（1）近28a来,武川县气候呈干暖化变化趋势,马铃薯和春小麦生产水足迹呈显著下降趋势（P<0.05）;（2）气候变化对作物生产水足迹影响显著,生育期平均相对湿度、平均气温和平均日较差对马铃薯生产水足迹影响较大,生育期平均风速和平均日较差对春小麦生产水足迹影响较大;（3）1983-2010年马铃薯平均生产水足迹为1.37m3·kg-1,春小麦平均生产水足迹为2.51m3·kg-1,说明在当地生产单位质量的干物质,春小麦比马铃薯消耗更多水分。在该地区适当增加马铃薯播种面积,对提高水资源利用效率,促进地区农业发展具有重要作用。