Abiotic and vertebrate seed dispersal in the Brazilian Atlantic forest: implications for forest regeneration

This study documents the proportion of woody plant species having different modes of seed dispersal, and classes of seed and fruit size at 16 Atlantic montane forest plots of southeastern Brazil (23-24° S). These plots represent six chronosequences (from 5-year-old to old-growth forest) of forest regeneration following small-scale shifting agriculture. Our results indicate that there is a gradual but predictable increase in the number of woody plant species relying on vertebrate-mediated seed dispersal in increasingly older plots. Moreover, the percentage of plant species bearing small seeds and fruits (< 0.6 cm in length) was more than halved from earlier to older forest plots, while the percentage of plant species producing middle-sized seeds and fruits at least doubled. Plant species belonging to the Melastomataceae, Myrsinaceae, Rubiaceae and Flacourtiaceae comprised a large proportion of the small-seeded and fruit species (33-53%), and largely occurred in early successional forest plots (5-30 years old). In contrast, species belonging to the Myrtaceae and Lauraceae represented most of the species (51-72%) bearing medium-sized seeds and fruits (0.6-1.5 cm in length), and occurred primarily in the old-growth forests. Shifts in the relative importance of dispersal strategies during the regeneration process of Atlantic montane forest, as well as in diaspore size appear to be related to the balance between early successional and shade-tolerant species associated with particular life forms and plant families. Finally, we discuss the relationships between the species richness of Myrtaceae and Lauraceae trees, seed dispersal by medium to large vertebrates, and possible regeneration scenarios for the Atlantic forest.     

The role of remnant trees in seed dispersal through the matrix: Being alone is not always so sad

Remnant trees within the non-forest matrix are common structures of forest landscapes which have high conservation value due to their supposed roles as biological legacies and stepping stones in fragmented forest scenarios. Fleshy-fruited remnant trees are dispersal foci for many forest plants, as seeds accumulate under their canopies after visitation by forest frugivores. Despite this recognized effect, little is known about the relative role of remnant trees in maintaining their seed dispersal function after forest fragmentation. In this work, conducted in the Cantabrian Range (Northern Spain), seed deposition by frugivorous birds and post-dispersal seed predation by rodents were compared beneath the canopies of hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna) trees scattered in the non-forested matrix, to those embedded in forest patches. We studied two years which had strong differences in community-wide fruit abundance (high in 2004, and low in 2005). Hawthorn and holly (Ilex aquifolium) seeds dominated the seed rain. The density of dispersed seeds differed between years and tree type, with higher values under patch trees relative to remnant ones. However, the effect of tree type depended on both the year and the seed species, as larger differences were found in the year of high fruit availability, and with holly seeds. Higher levels of post-dispersal seed predation on holly seeds also contributed to offset the differences between tree types. Our results suggest that remnant trees, by functioning as dispersal foci, facilitate the dispersal of the two most abundant plant species for forest succession through the matrix. More importantly, we demonstrated that in years of low fruit availability in which forest frugivores are forced to exploit scattered fruit resources, the role of remnant trees may even be equivalent to that played by forest trees.     

Reduced dispersal of native plant species as a consequence of the reduced abundance of frugivore species in fragmented rainforest

Frugivorous animals disperse the seeds of the majority of rainforest plant species and hence play a key role in the trajectory of rainforest regeneration. This study investigated whether changes in the species composition of the frugivore community in fragmented rainforest in subtropical Australia is likely to impact the dispersal of native plant species. The potential of frugivorous bird and bat species to disperse the seeds of plant species in fragmented rainforest was assessed using published dietary information together with field surveys of frugivore abundance within intact forest, forest fragments and patches of regrowth. Frugivore species with reduced abundance in fragmented rainforest were the only known dispersers of 27 of the 221 native plant species in the data set (12% of species). These frugivore species were also major dispersers of plant species producing fruits wider than 10 mm and species from the families Rubiaceae, Lauraceae, Myrtaceae, Meliaceae, Lamiaceae and Vitaceae. Except for Rubiaceae, these plant taxa are also potentially dispersed by two of the frugivore species that were widespread in fragmented rainforest, Lopholaimus antarcticus and Ptilonorhynchus violaceus, although dispersal rates are likely to be lower in fragmented than in extensive rainforest. Consistent with other regions, large-seeded plants are susceptible to reduced dispersal in fragmented rainforest in subtropical Australia. However, we predict a smaller deficit in seed dispersal in fragmented forests than has been reported from other regions, due to factors such as functional overlap among frugivore species, the ability of many Australian rainforest vertebrates to persist in fragmented rainforest, and a lack of hunting in these forests. Nevertheless, rainforest fragmentation has reduced the abundance of a suite of frugivorous rainforest fauna, which in turn is likely to reduce the dispersal of a certain plant taxa and may alter patterns of plant regeneration in subtropical Australian rainforest fragments.     

Forest fragmentation differentially affects seed dispersal of large and small-seeded tropical trees

The responses of plant-animal interactions to forest fragmentation can vary. We hypothesized that large-seeded plant species would be more susceptible to forest fragmentation than small-seeded species because large-seeded species rely on a few, extinction prone dispersers. We compared seed dispersal of the large-seeded, mammal dispersed Duckeodendron cestroides and the small-seeded, avian dispersed Bocageopsis multiflora. The number, percentage, distance, and distributions of dispersed seeds were all reduced in fragments for Duckeodendron but not for Bocageopsis. Other fragmentation research in tropical communities supports this hypothesis through three lines of evidence: (1) Large-seeded plant species are more prone to extinction, (2) Fragmentation restricts or alters the movement of large animal dispersers more than small dispersers, and (3) Large and small-seeded species seem to be differentially linked to primary and secondary forest habitats. Therefore, small-seeded plants may be more resilient to forest fragmentation while large-seeded species may be more susceptible and should be a priority for conservation.     

Spatial and temporal effects on recruitment of an Afromontane forest tree in a threatened fragmented ecosystem

Tropical forest fragmentation affects animal and plant populations in different ways. For plants, early stages (seed to seedling) are more sensitive to habitat alteration than adults, and can shape their future spatial patterns. Therefore, studying how seed germination and seedling growth and survival vary at different spatiotemporal scales enhances our understanding about plant recruitment in fragmented ecosystems. In this study we examine if, and to what extent, recruitment at early life-stages of Xymalos monospora (Monomiaceae), a bird-dispersed Afrotropical tree, differs between and within forest fragments that vary in size, surrounding matrix and microhabitats. Three years of field experiments (2004-2006) in south-east Kenya, revealed that patterns of seed germination and seedling survival and growth were largely inconsistent, both in space and time. Recruitment was not consistently higher in larger or less disturbed fragments. At smaller spatial scales within forest fragments, recruitment was subject to high between-year variation too, with decreased germination in gaps only in the dry year of 2004. However, performance of seeds and seedlings was consistently better away from than under conspecific fruiting trees. Our results imply that fragmented tree populations of X. monospora may become age-structured, or ultimately go extinct, if recruitment fails in subsequent years. This may especially affect populations in small, disturbed forest fragments, where seed dispersal and buffering against stochastic processes are generally reduced. Exotic plantations bordering indigenous forest fragments may provide suitable conditions for native tree recruitment; hence, forest expansion through enrichment planting should be considered in future conservation plans.     

Implications of seed dispersal by animals for tropical reserve management

Many tropical trees bear fruits adapted for consumption by animals, and many tropical animals depend on fruits for food for at least part of the year. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the potential importance of: (1) uneven species abundance distributions; (2) the imperative of local seed dispersal for plant recruitment; and (3) seasonality of fruit production for managing small tropical reserves. Some mutualistic seed-dispersal systems are ‘pivotal’ for forest communities. Although most species of trees produce when other fruits are readily available in the forest, others (e.g. Casearia corymbosa in Costa Rican rainforest and Virola sebifera in Panamanian rainforest) bear fruits during annual periods of fruit scarcity, and consequently maintain species of fruit-eating birds and mammals which are critical for the dispersal and ultimate recruitment of many tree species at other times of the year. The question of relative abundance presents particular problems when ‘pivotal’ plant species are rare or confined to special habitats. This paper considers ecological relationships which accelerate species loss from habitat islands over and above ‘random’ loss of ecologically independent species predicted from biogeographic theory, and suggests management methods that can reduce such excessive loss.     

Effect of forest fragmentation on fruit and seed predation of the tropical dry forest tree Ceiba aesculifolia

Forests fragmentation reduces the density of natural plant populations forming patches of the remaining individuals. One of the biotic interactions that can be affected by forest fragmentation and is poorly studied is seed predation. We determined the effects of forest fragmentation on seed and fruit predation in Ceiba aesculifolia by comparing trees in continuous forest with trees in fragmented forest. We compared the following variables: (a) frequency of fruit predation by Collie’s squirrel (Sciurus colliaei) in each habitat; (b) frequency of the cotton-staining bug seed predator (Dysdercus, Orden Hemiptera) in each habitat; (c) the effect of seed predation on germination frequency and time; and (d) the effect of different life stages of Dysdercus on seed viability. In continuous habitat, 100% of the trees presented fruits with squirrel predation while only 34% of trees in fragmented habitats presented fruit predation. In continuous forest 27% of the trees contained fruits with the seed predator Dysdercus, while only 2% of the trees in fragmented forest presented Dysdercus. The initial weight of damaged seeds was greater than seeds that were not damaged indicating that seed predators select heavier seeds to feed upon. Frequency of seed germination was affected by different life stages; pre-adults decreased germination significantly more than nymphs and adults. Seed predation significantly increased the time it took for germination to occur. Our study shows that forest fragmentation significantly affects predation patterns of squirrels and cotton-staining bugs. Reduction of natural seed predators in forest fragments may have long-term consequences on forest structure and diversity.     

Biased seed rain in forest edges: Evidence from the Brazilian Atlantic forest

In this paper, we test the hypothesis that seed rain in forest edges differs from that in forest interior in terms of seed abundance, species richness, seed size, dispersal mode, and manipulation by vertebrates. The study was carried out in the Coimbra forest (3500 ha), the largest fragment currently found in the Atlantic forest of northeast Brazil. We assessed seed rain during a 1-year period by using a 1500-m long transect (with 100 sampling units) for each habitat. Seeds were categorized according to size, dispersal mode, and vertebrate manipulation. A total of 76,207 seeds belonging to 146 species were collected during the whole study and in average edge received more seeds and species per unit of area during particular periods of time. However, the analysis of all seeds and species recorded in both habitats during the 1-year period revealed that forest interior received a significant higher percentage of medium, large and very large seeds (21.8%) and species (82.6%) in comparison to edge (13.5% of seeds and 57.5% of species). The contribution of large and very large seed species dispersed by vertebrates was also lower in the edge forest as it represented 13.04% of all vertebrate-dispersed species recorded in this habitat vs. 31.5 % in the forest interior. Finally, seeds handled by vertebrates accounted for 5.9% of all seeds in forest edge, and reached 11% in the forest interior. The biased seed rain documented in the Coimbra forest raises the possibility that the creation of forest edges may alter some attributes of seed rain, particularly its content of large-seeded plants and of those dispersed by vertebrates.     

Cryptic genetic bottlenecks during restoration of an endangered tropical conifer

Forest restoration programmes aim to use material for re-planting that is genetically diverse and not inbred. However, restricted seed sampling, high variance in reproductive output, and the production of inbred seeds that survive in the nursery but not in the wild can lead to forest restoration stock being genetically compromised. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the reproductive biology of the New Caledonian endemic conifer Araucaria nemorosa makes it susceptible to these genetic problems and to assess whether there is evidence for genetic bottlenecks and elevated inbreeding in nursery stock compared to seedlings and adults from wild source populations. Reproductive output was low with high variance among trees (only 14% of adult trees surveyed produced mature cones, >50% of examined cones had <10 viable seeds). Evidence for an extreme genetic bottleneck was detected in a nursery population established from cones collected from adult trees. A second nursery population established with seed collected from the forest floor showed no evidence of a genetic bottleneck, but was inbred compared to its wild source population. In light of these results, we do not recommend collecting cones directly from A. nemorosa as an efficient means of establishing genetically diverse stock for restoration programmes. Collecting seed from the forest floor is likely to be more effective, but the planting stock may contain a high proportion of inbred individuals. Collecting established wild seedlings already subjected to natural selection is suggested as an alternative method of maximising the diversity captured, whilst minimising sampling effort and proportion of inbred individuals.     

Survival, dispersal and early migration movements of captive-bred juvenile eastern loggerhead shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus migrans)

Avian captive breeding programs pose a particular challenge with migratory birds due to natal dispersal and high mortality during migration. In Canada a captive breeding program for the eastern loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus migrans) has released over 400 juveniles since 2001, but the fate of almost all these birds is unknown. In 2007 and 2008, we used radio-telemetry of captive-reared juveniles to determine pre-migration survival and dispersal movements away from the release site. Overall, 76% (29 of 38) of shrikes survived from release to the initiation of migration and the daily survival rate was 0.987. Most deaths (78%) occurred in females, suggesting a possible sex-biased pre-migration mortality. Shrikes typically dispersed independently, there was little overlap between dispersal sites, and the average pre-migration dispersal distance from the release site was 4.2 km (SD 2.4). Release date was negatively correlated with time spent at the release site prior to dispersal, but did not have a significant effect on survival, time spent at dispersal sites or distance of dispersal. Migration initiation date ranged over 6 weeks and early-hatched juveniles were the first to begin migration. Using aerial telemetry, we located five of 29 birds that had begun migration at distances up to 180 km from the release site; no birds were found dead after initiating migration despite the extensive search area. High juvenile survival to migration for captive-reared juveniles suggests that the captive breeding and release program has high potential to augment wild populations of the eastern loggerhead shrike.     

Recruitment and regeneration in populations of an endangered South Iberian Tertiary relict tree

The southern Iberian Peninsula is one of the most important refugia of Tertiary relict plant taxa in Europe. Under the present summer-dry climate, relict populations may experience a severely reduced regeneration. We studied the demographic structure, seed set and initial recruitment in relict populations of the endangered tree Frangula alnus subsp. baetica (Rhamnaceae) to evaluate its regeneration potential under the present environmental conditions. Populations are restricted to small riparian forests of Southwest Spanish and North Moroccan mountain ranges. The distribution of fruit crop sizes was highly left-skewed, and a few old trees produced the large bulk of the population seed pool. Bird-mediated seed dispersal appeared inefficient and post-dispersal seed predation by mice was high. Secondary seed transport by elevated creek water flow after winter rains modified the primary seed dispersal, but in consequence most seeds germinated on recently formed sandbanks where seedlings experienced reduced initial growth and survival. The most important mortality factor was desiccation, followed by herbivory. None of 1144 monitored seedlings survived for 2 years. The demographic survey through five populations indicates that drought periods may cause temporal regeneration bottlenecks. Moreover, over the last two decades populations have experienced increasing regeneration problems. Two causes are suggested: (1) browsing pressure from introduced game animals, and (2) the impact of torrential water flow peaks after heavy winter rains, exacerbated by large-scale vegetation slashing in surrounding cork oak forests. We discuss conservation strategies for this and other relict tree species that account for the pecularities of their habitat within the Mediterranean.     

Fragmented but not isolated: Contribution of single trees, small patches and long-distance pollen flow to genetic connectivity for Gomortega keule, an endangered Chilean tree

Habitat fragmentation is a major threat to species survival worldwide due to genetic isolation, inbreeding depression, genetic drift and loss of adaptive potential. However the data on how gene-flow changes following habitat fragmentation is contradictory. If there is significant gene-flow between spatially isolated populations then limited conservation resources could be directed away from projects to ‘establish genetic connectivity’ and used to address other consequences of habitat fragmentation.This research focused on an endangered tree species Gomortega keule (Gomortegaceae) in a fragmented landscape in the Central Chile Biodiversity Hotspot and addressed three questions: (1) How far does pollen move between pollen donors and seed trees and what is the shape of the dispersal curve? (2) Do insect pollinators travel outside of forest patches? (3) Do small populations and single trees contribute to genetic connectivity across the landscape?Paternity analysis results show that G. keule’s insect pollinators travel outside of forest patches, over distances of 6 km, beyond the scale of population fragmentation or genetic structure. Pollen moved from small sites and single trees into large sites, as well as in the other direction, indicating these sites play a key role as functioning elements of the wider population and as stepping stones between sites. Fragmentation at the scale investigated has not led to genetic isolation, thus genetic connectivity per se is not a conservation priority. Other consequences of land-use change, specifically continuing habitat loss and population reduction, still threaten the survival of the species.     

The invasion of two native Eucalypt forests by Pinus radiata in the Blue Mountains, New South Wales, Australia

Invasions of Pinus species are a major environmental concern in South Africa and New Zealand where pines are beginning to dominate native grasslands and shrublands. Pines are widely cultivated in Australia with almost a million hectares growing in large plantations. Plantations are commonly bordered by native Eucalypt vegetation resulting in a high potential for invasion and providing an opportunity to study pine invasion processes within forest environments.In order to determine if Pinus radiata equally invades different dry Eucalypt woodland vegetation types, two areas in the upper Blue Mountains in New South Wales, Australia were surveyed. Similar levels of invasion were observed in both Eucalypt forest types. An average pine abundance of 55 individuals for the Eucalyptus oreades and Eucalyptus sieberi vegetation type and 49 individuals for the Eucalyptus mannifera and Eucalyptus dives vegetation type was recorded in 20 m by 20 m plots located 50 m from the plantation boundary. To characterise the spatial distribution of the pines, transects were placed perpendicular to the plantation edge. As expected pine numbers diminished with distance from the plantation, however, large reproductive pine trees were found up to 4 km from the seed source signifying long distance dispersal.Investigation of wildling pine response to fire suggests that it may not always be an appropriate management tool. Fire stimulated seed release from cones and resulted in high recruitment of seedlings around reproductive pines which were large enough to survive the burn. Infrequent fires at intervals greater than time to maturity will lead to increased pine densities and further spread into the native vegetation.     

Grasslands as movement barriers for a forest-associated salamander: Migration behavior of adult and juvenile salamanders at a distinct habitat edge

The persistence of amphibian populations in fragmented landscapes requires dispersal and recolonization of habitat patches after local extinction. These processes entail individuals crossing habitat edges. Edge permeability integrates the behavior of individuals with the vegetative structure of the habitat edge and may influence the dispersal rates between habitat patches. We used drift fences, radio telemetry, and an experimental displacement to examine the movement behavior of juvenile and adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) at a pond located in continuous forest and a pond located on a distinct forest-grassland edge. At the pond on the habitat edge, adult salamanders migrated to and from the forested side of the pond. Resident adults with transmitters migrated to forested habitat without approaching the habitat edge. Displaced adults with transmitters halted emigration movements when they approached the habitat edge. None of the radio-tagged adults were observed more than a few meters into the grassland. Recently metamorphosed juveniles exiting the grassland side of the pond changed their direction of movement and migrated into the forested habitat. We conclude that salamanders oriented movements with respect to features in the terrestrial habitat, detected the habitat edge, and behaviorally avoided the grassland. Exploring the permeability of habitat edges will improve our understanding of dispersal within fragmented landscapes and enhance efforts to conserve regional populations of amphibians.     

Edge effects on recruitment of Trillium camschatcense in small forest fragments

To evaluate edge effects on recruitment of the understory perennial herb Trillium camschatcense, spatial distribution and stage-class structure based on four life-history stages were investigated within a small forest fragment in eastern Hokkaido, Japan. Seedlings were most affected by edge effects. The density of seedlings was considerably lower in the forest edges than in the interiors and was higher on the northern side of the forest. Although three stages suffered edge and orientation effects, flowering plants experienced much more moderate edge effects than juvenile stages and showed relatively uniform distribution. The results suggest that the recruitment of juvenile stages was strongly limited near forest edges. Seedling density was correlated with microclimatic conditions, not with seed production. The edge and orientation effects on stage-class structures were also observed in two other small populations, emphasizing the role of edge-related decreases in seed germination and subsequent survival for limiting the recruitment of small, fragmented populations of T. camschatcense.     

Morphological characterization of African bush mango trees (Irvingia species) in West Africa

The variation of the morphological characters of bitter and sweet African bush mango trees (Irvingia species) was investigated in the Dahomey Gap which is the West African savannah woodland area separating the Upper and the Lower Guinean rain forest blocks. African bush mangoes have been rated as the highest priority multi-purpose food trees species that need improvement research in West and Central Africa. A total of 128 trees from seven populations were characterized for their bark, fruits, mesocarp and seeds to assess the morphological differences between bitter and sweet trees and among populations. Multivariate analysis revealed that none of the variables: type of bark, mature fruit exocarp colour, fruit roughness and fresh mesocarp colour, could consistently distinguish bitter from sweet trees in the field. The analysis of the measurements of fruits, mesocarps and seeds demonstrated that bitter fruits have the heaviest seeds and this consistently distinguishes them from sweet fruits. However, the measurements of the fruit, mesocarp and seed did not have a joint effect in grouping types and populations of ABMTs. This indicates high diversity with a potential for selection existing across all phytogeographical regions investigated. The sweet trees of Couffo and those of Dassa in Benin are clearly different from all other populations. This can be attributed to traditional domestication (bringing into cultivation) and climate, respectively. The large fruits and the heavy seeds of the cultivated populations are evidence of successful on-going traditional selection of sweet trees in the Dahomey Gap.     

Post-dispersal fate of hazel (Corylus avellana) nuts and consequences for the management and conservation of scrub-grassland mosaics

Granivorous rodents and birds are both predators and dispersers of the nuts produced by many woody plants. This study examines the role of granivores as predators and dispersers of Corylus avellana L. and the consequences of this interaction for Corylus regeneration and scrub encroachment into grassland. In the Cressbrook Dale nature reserve (Derbyshire, UK), Corylus nuts were buried in the grassland at two distances (<15 and >70 m) from scrub vegetation (the main source of nuts, and habitat of the granivores) to estimate the rate of seed removal over 3 years, assessing also the success of dispersal and seedling establishment in the grassland. The rate of nut removal at close sites (<15 m from scrub) was consistently higher than at far sites (>70 m) over the 3 years. All sown nuts were removed over 2 years at close sites, while at the far sites around 20% of the sown nuts were still present the following spring. Grassland close to the scrub had the highest intensity of nut predation but also had the highest density of Corylus seedlings. Sciurus carolinensis was the most important disperser of hazelnuts into the grassland. This squirrel scatter-hoarded 10-12 thousand hazelnuts in 1.5 ha of grassland adjacent to scrub. In this reserve, two vertebrates - both non-native - are largely responsible for maintaining the dynamic balance between the scrub and grassland habitats. American grey squirrels disperse hazelnuts into the grassland and sheep slow the encroachment of scrub by repeated browsing.     

Birds as agents of seed dispersal in a human-dominated landscape in southern Costa Rica

Birds play vital roles as seed dispersers helping to maintain and restore plant communities. With restoration increasingly key to global conservation, it is important to understand the landscape attributes and bird community characteristics that most influence avian seed dispersal in human-altered landscapes. We examined bird community structure and seed-dispersal patterns in agricultural countryside in Costa Rica that is typical of much of the Neotropics. Contrary to expectations, bird abundance, not richness, best predicted the richness of bird-dispersed seeds. Neither forest patch size or proximity, nor total tree cover, influenced seed dispersal. The richness and abundance of dispersed seeds, however, was strongly correlated with “wetness,” a remotely-sensed metric of vegetation, at several scales. These results suggest that in this human-dominated tropical region: (1) bird abundance, not species richness or size, may drive seed dispersal, and (2) remote-sensing combined with field verification can detect landscape elements that are helpful for maintaining the option of bird-mediated reforestation.     

Fruiting failure and limited recruitment in remnant populations of the hawkmoth-pollinated tree Oxyanthus pyriformis subsp. pyriformis (Rubiaceae)

Plants with highly specialized pollination systems may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of habitat fragmentation. The sub-canopy tree Oxyanthus pyriformis subsp. pyriformis has deep tubular flowers (c. 90 mm in length) that are specialized for pollination by long-tongued hawkmoths. Existing natural populations of this taxon appear to be confined to two suburban habitat fragments in the city of Durban, South Africa. Breeding system experiments showed that the trees are self-incompatible and thus completely reliant on pollen vectors for sexual reproduction. Hawkmoths were rarely observed to visit flowers, despite intensive monitoring over four seasons from 1997 to 2003. Fruit set as determined from examination of more than 150,000 flowers at the two sites was extremely low (0.04% and 0.07% of flowers), but increased to more than 70% in flowers that were hand-pollinated with pollen from another tree. This >1000-fold increase in the likelihood of fruit production following pollen-supplementation indicates that trees experience severe pollen-limitation of fruit set. Natural fruit set is so low that only a few dozen fruits were recorded in each population during two years of monitoring. This is of concern as O. pyriformis trees are dependent solely on seeds for recruitment. Demographic surveys showed that remaining natural populations have fewer saplings than adult trees and only two seedlings for every adult tree. The long-term viability of reintroduced populations of O. pyriformis is also in doubt, as we observed an almost complete lack of recruitment in a population that was established in a seemingly suitable forest site 20 years ago. Regular hand-pollination and, in some instances, further planting of saplings, may be the only way to safeguard these populations.     

Matrix analysis to evaluate sustainability: The tropical tree Aquilaria crassna, a heavily poached source of agarwood

We used size-structured Lefkovitch projection matrix analysis to predict future trends in the survival of Aquilaria crassna (Thymelaeaceae), a tropical evergreen forest tree that has been highly sought after for its valuable aromatic wood (agarwood) for millennia. Data on growth, damage to trees by poachers, fruit production, seed dispersal and seedling recruitment were collected from a 30-ha plot in Khao Yai National Park, central Thailand that had seen moderate poaching. The population asymptotic growth rate, λ_a, and transient growth rate, λ_tr, found from using the matrix to project the observed population 48 years, were 1.002 and 1.005, respectively, with 95% confidence intervals of [0.985, 1.016] and [0.985, 1.023]. The stable size distribution obtained from the matrix was reasonably similar to the observed size distribution, suggesting that at the time of the study the population was not far from equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis and simulations of poaching on adult trees indicate that both λ’s are very sensitive to the removal of adult trees and the growth of preadult trees. In particular, the increase in tree mortality and decrease in preadult growth rate caused by agarwood collection seen in some areas could cause extirpation of the population. While in such cases the population appears to be poised on the brink of decline, several factors that we could not evaluate could alter its fate. First, adult deaths could stimulate recruitment of young under the parent trees; second, there is marked year-to-year variation in fruiting success and possibly recruitment; third, there is considerable spatial variation in tree density and recruitment, suggesting that attempts to evaluate future success need to encompass larger spatial and time scales.