Distribution, use and selection of nest type by Komodo Dragons

We report the abundance, patterns of distribution and physical characteristics of Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) nests on Komodo Island in Indonesia. A total of 46 Komodo dragon nesting sites were identified, of these 26 nests were considered active for the 2002/2003 season. The distribution of nests coincided with large coastal valleys in northern Komodo Island. There was a significant preference by breeding females to utilize the mound nests (61%) over both open hillside (19.5%) and ground nests (19.5%). Further, within these mound nests, females discriminated for nests based on habitat characteristics, especially sunlight exposure. The main implications for management and conservation drawn from this study is that there is a small number of females nesting annually on the largest island within Komodo National Park. Further, continuation of nesting surveys could provide a cost effective accurate way to gather important long term demographic information on this species.     

Genetic and morphological divergence in island and mainland birds: Informing conservation priorities

Evolutionary processes can complicate conservation efforts for species with uncertain taxonomic classifications and discrete geographic populations. Discordant morphological and genetic patterns across the geographic range of species further calls for the identification of evolutionary significant units for conservation. Using island and mainland populations of a small Australian passerine (the superb fairy-wren, Malurus cyaneus), we examine the relationship between morphological and genetic divergence among two subspecies, M. c. ashbyi (Kangaroo Island, South Australia) and M. c. leggei (South Australia, mainland), using eight microsatellite markers. Island birds showed clear evidence for morphological divergence, with a larger body size and thinner bill compared to mainland birds. Two genetic clusters were found using Bayesian methods, comprising mainland and island regions. Estimates of recent migration rates between all sites were very low (<2%). Morphological and genetic differentiation between island and mainland sites correlated significantly, but not when controlling for isolation by distance. Genetic and morphological substructure was evident with three distinct genetic clusters in each region. Males, the highly sedentary sex, appeared to drive correlations between morphological and genetic differentiation. Our study provides evidence that the subspecies classification of M. cyaneus in island and mainland regions encapsulates two independently diverging populations that can be recognised in conservation planning.     

How does human exploitation affect impala populations in protected and partially protected areas? - A case study from the Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania

Human exploitation can have severe conservation implications for wildlife populations. In the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, illegal hunting is a serious concern for wildlife management, and in this study we investigated if density, demography and behaviour can be used as indicators of human exploitation. We used impala (Aepycerus melampus) as a model species to study human exploitation inside and outside a strictly protected area. Over a six month period, a total of 2050 km of transects were driven in the different protected areas (National Park, Game Reserve, Open Area). Densities were estimated by using distance sampling and the partially protected areas were found to have significantly lower densities (4.3 ind/km²) than the National Park (15.3 ind/km²). A variation in density between different sections within the National Park was also found. However, we found no differences in group sizes. Moreover, the sex-ratio was more skewed towards females in the partially protected areas and in sections within the National Park close to villages. In addition, impalas showed higher alertness levels, and longer flight initiation distance to an approaching human in the partially protected areas compared to the National Park. The present harvest levels by illegal hunting in the study area are most likely the cause of the observed differences. Our results suggest that density, demography and behaviour can be used as indicators of human exploitation, but that this probably varies according to local hunting pressure. Furthermore, it could be expected that the results obtained in this study might reflect the state of other ungulates in the area, which raises concern whether management objectives for the buffer zones of Serengeti National Park are met.     

Genetic tracking of the brown bear in northern Pakistan and implications for conservation

Asian bears face major threats due to the impact of human activities as well as a critical lack of knowledge about their status, distribution and needs for survival. Once abundant in northern Pakistan, the Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus) has been exterminated in most of its former distribution range. It presently occurs sparsely, in small populations, the Deosai National Park supporting the largest isolate. This decline might imply a reduction in genetic diversity, compromising the survival of the population. Using a combination of fecal DNA analysis and field data, our study aimed at assessing the size and genetic status of the Deosai population and give guidelines for its conservation and management. Using fecal genetic analysis, we estimated the population to be 40-50 bears, which compares well with the field census of 38 bears. The northern Pakistani brown bear population may have undergone an approximate 200-300-fold decrease during the last thousand years, probably due to glaciations and the influence of growing human population. However, in spite of the presence of a bottleneck genetic signature, the Deosai population has a moderate level of genetic diversity and is not at immediate risk of inbreeding depression. Gene flow might exist with adjacent populations. We recommend careful monitoring of this population in the future both with field observations and genetic analyses, including sampling of adjacent populations to assess incoming gene flow. The connectivity with adjacent populations in Pakistan and India will be of prime importance for the long-term survival of Deosai bears.     

High levels of hatching failure in an insular population of the South Island robin: a consequence of food limitation?

Endangered birds in insular environments like New Zealand are often translocated to predator-free offshore islands for conservation purposes. Some translocated populations however exhibit reduced fecundity, and it has been suggested that either inbreeding (due to small number of founders) or resource shortages (due to high population density) may limit reproductive success. For example, the South Island robin (Petroica a. australis) population on Motuara Island (59 ha) was founded by only five birds but has increased to ∼600 individuals, or a density >10 times that of the mainland. Despite this apparent success, the rate of hatching failure in this population is three times higher than in mainland populations, with more than a third of eggs failing to hatch. To test if elevated hatching failure is the result of food limitation, we carried out a food supplementation experiment by providing females with mealworms equivalent to ∼50% of their daily energy requirements. Food supplementation had no effect on hatching success, clutch size, incubation attentiveness or nest size. Egg volume increased with food supplementation in one of the two years of this study, but both egg volume and incubation attentiveness were unrelated to rate of hatching failure. As previous genetic analyses confirmed that the bottlenecked population of robins on Motuara Island have significantly less genetic variation than their source population, we conclude that inbreeding depression, and not food limitation, is the most likely explanation for their high rate of hatching failure. We suggest that the experimental translocation of genetically dissimilar individuals be considered as a possible remedy for low productivity in island populations that were initiated with few founders.     

Pathogen exposure in endangered island fox (Urocyon littoralis) populations: Implications for conservation management

Island fox (Urocyon littoralis) populations on four California Channel Islands have declined severely since 1994. Canine distemper (CDV) was suspected to be responsible for the decline of the Santa Catalina Island fox, so knowledge of infectious disease exposure in the remaining island fox populations was urgently needed. This study reviewed previous pathogen exposure in island foxes and investigated the current threat by conducting a serologic survey of foxes on all islands and sympatric feral cats on three islands from 2001 to 2003 for antibodies against canid pathogens. Before the decline, foxes had evidence of exposure to CDV, canine adenovirus (CAV), canine parvovirus (CPV), and Toxoplasma, with exposure to these five pathogens differing greatly by island. Exposure to canine coronavirus (CCV), canine herpesvirus (CHV), and Leptospira was rare. In 2001-2003, wild-born foxes had evidence of exposure to CDV (5.2-32.8%) on 5 of 6 islands, CPV (28-100%) and CAV (4.7-100%) on five islands, and Toxoplasma gondii (2.3-15.4%) on four islands. Exposure to CCV, CHV and Leptospira was less common. Sharing of infectious agents between sympatric foxes and feral cats appeared minimal, but CDV exposure was detected in two cats on Santa Catalina Island. Domestic dogs have historically been present on the islands, but it is not known if canine diseases can be maintained in fox populations without the continual presence of dogs. Targeted vaccination programs against the most virulent pathogens and continued intensive disease surveillance may help protect the critically small remaining fox populations from disease outbreaks that could threaten the success of ongoing conservation efforts.     

Are differences in fitness traits related to genetic clusters? An empirical test on the European tree frog

Microsatellites are one of the preferred marker types to estimate the level of genetic diversity and subdivision in natural populations of endangered species. Many studies thereby attempted to identify genetically defined management units for conservation by applying a variety of genetic clustering methods. It is not clear, however, whether genetic clusters inferred from neutral molecular markers reflect differences in fitness or adaptation. In this study, I conducted a common garden experiment on the endangered European tree frog (Hyla arborea) to clarify whether fitness-related traits of larval development differed between three genetic groups defined by Bayesian clustering analysis. I reared larvae under semi-natural conditions and measured growth and developmental rates as well as survival at five larval stages from eclosion to completion of metamorphosis. Nested general and generalized linear models showed significant cluster differences for several variables in terms of smaller growth rates and body sizes at early larval stages. These differences were, however, probably not linked to adaptive divergence among clusters but rather to neutral genetic processes in the breeding sites of one cluster, which were spatially isolated and subject of recent bottlenecks. Hence, a genetic load effect (e.g. inbreeding depression) may have acted on the populations of this particular cluster. I advise studies aiming to define management units for conservation to not only use genetic clustering methods but to complement their findings with experimental approaches on fitness-related traits.     

MtDNA genetic diversity and population history of a dwindling raptorial bird, the red kite (Milvus milvus)

The red kite (Milvus milvus) occurs in a relatively small area in the southwestern Palearctic region, with population strongholds in Central Europe. Following strong human persecutions at the beginning of the 20th century, populations have receded, particularly in peripheral areas and islands. In order to describe and compare levels of genetic diversity and phylogeographic patterns throughout its entire distribution in Europe, sequence variation of a 357 bps part of the mitochondrial DNA control region was assessed in eight populations and 105 individuals. Overall, results indicate that population declines have affected red kite mtDNA variation. We found low levels of genetic diversity (values of nucleotide diversity ranging from 0 in Majorca island to 0.0062 in Central Europe), with only 10 distinct haplotypes, separated by low levels of genetic divergence (mean sequence divergence = 0.75%). Highest haplotype and nucleotide diversities match with demographic expectations, and were found in Central European and Central Spanish samples, where present strongholds occur, and lowest values in the declining southern Spanish and insular samples. Φst estimates indicated moderate gene flow between populations. Phylogeographic patterns and mismatch distributions analyses suggest central European regions may have been colonized from southern glacial refugia (in the Italian or Iberian peninsulas). Interspecific phylogenetic comparisons and divergence date estimates indicated the genetic split between the red kite and its closely related species, the black kite (Milvus migrans), might be relatively recent. The low level of genetic variation found in the red kite mitochondrial control region, compared to the black kite, is likely the result of relatively recent divergence (associated with founder events), successive bottlenecks and small population sizes. As there are several ongoing projects aimed at reinforcing populations in countries such as the United Kingdom, Italy or Spain, our results may prove useful for the genetic management of the species.     

Unexpected high levels of genetic variability and the population structure of an island endemic rodent (Oryzomys couesi cozumelae)

Oryzomys couesi cozumelae is an endemic, threatened rodent from Cozumel Island, Mexico. We estimated its genetic diversity and structure by analyzing microsatellite loci in 228 samples from 12 sampling sites widely distributed throughout the island. Unexpected high levels of genetic and allelic diversity were found: a total of 54 alleles, an average of 10.8 alleles per locus, and high heterozygosity values (mean H_O = 0.624, H_E = 0.690 and H_Nei = 0.689). These values are higher than those reported for small sized insular mammals, higher than that found in 37 individuals of the mainland O. couesi from southern Mexico (H_O = 0.578) that we analyzed for comparative purposes, and similar to those of other mainland small mammal populations. Despite factors that affect Cozumel’s biota, such as exotic predators and competitors, hurricanes, seasonal population fluctuations and anthropogenic activities, no evidence of genetic bottlenecks was found. A significant population structure was observed and a model of isolation-by-distance was supported. Our findings render O. c. cozumelae a high conservation value, not only for its high genetic diversity and structure, but because available data suggests that its population has declined significantly in recent years. Further habitat fragmentation and population isolation could result in a higher genetic structure and loss of genetic diversity. The protection of habitat, the maintenance of habitat connectivity and the removal of introduced competitors and predators are a conservation priority. Acknowledging that the genetic structure of populations has crucial conservation implications, the present genetic information should be taken into account in management plans for the conservation of O. c. cozumelae.     

Ecology and conservation of two endangered subspecies of the leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) on Japanese islands

The conservation of rare species on islands is a special challenge, especially when the islands are faced with increasing human impact. Two endangered wild felids in Japan provide a contrast that is useful for examining conservation strategies. The Iriomote cat (Prionailurus bengalensis iriomotensis) is endemic to Iriomotejima Island in Okinawa, and the Tsushima leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis euptilurus) occurs in the Tsushima islands in Japan, although a related subspecies found in the Korean Peninsula. Population size was approximately 100 individuals for each subspecies. While the population of Iriomote cat appears relatively stable, the population and abundance of the Tsushima leopard cat has decreased in recent decades. Because of their small population sizes and restricted habitats both are listed as endangered species/subspecies in Japan’s Red List, and the Iriomote cat is listed as an endangered subspecies in the IUCN Red List. Although both are similar-sized felids living on small islands, their ecological characteristics such as food habit, habitat selection, and density differ. These differences seem to be caused by the climate, the biological environment (the species composition of fauna in each island, and the presence of competitors), and the artificial background. The threats facing these two felids are also similar. Habitat destruction, traffic accidents, and negative influences by introduced species are the principal threats to be addressed for their conservation. At the same time, there are differences in the degree of impact by each threat, in each species’ conservation programs in practice, and in the stages of progress and operation of programs. These differences are partly because they have different ecological features and partly because the social background of each island, such as human population, main industry, and historical relationship between human and wildlife, are quite different. We will compare the ecology and state of these two wild felids and discuss the different conservational situations in relation to felid ecology and human society.     

Insular pest control within a metapopulation context

Introduced pests threaten many species and their control is generally beneficial for conservation, particularly on islands where complete eradication is possible. Unfortunately on ‘nearshore’ islands neighbouring source populations exist and unaided reinvasion is likely. Pest control programmes at these sites thus require a metapopulation context to adequately manage movements between source and sink populations. We investigated the ecology of introduced ship rats (Rattus rattus) on a nearshore island, and gene flow with adjacent mainland populations, in order to understand the metapopulation dynamics and relative levels of pest control required within the landscape. We sampled the entire population by trapping (n = 30), achieving eradication, and found a low rat density (3.2 ha⁻¹) indicative of a sink population. Seed and other plant material constituted the major dietary component of rats. Despite its proximity to mainland source populations, the island population was genetically distinct with reduced allelic diversity caused by a recent reinvasion founder effect. Genetic analyses also detected recent migrants between the populations. In contrast, two mainland populations separated by a similar distance displayed complete genetic mixing. The small water gap therefore provides a sufficient barrier to lower the migration rate to the island and delay reinvasion, which nonetheless eventually happens. In order to maintain nearshore islands pest-free, conservation management will require a metapopulation approach simultaneously focusing on both island and source population pest control.     

Farmer attitudes toward wolves: Implications for the role of predators in managing disease

The potential for disease transmission between wild and domestic animals may interfere with wildlife and habitat conservation on lands surrounding protected areas. Recently, possible transmission of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) from wild ungulates to domestic livestock has affected the Riding Mountain National Park region in Manitoba, Canada. Wolf (Canis lupus) predation on ungulate populations may help lessen the risk of disease transmission to livestock. We conducted an exploratory analysis of causal factors associated with farmer attitudes toward observing wolves on their farms. A survey to 4 220 farms within 50 km of the Park resulted in an adjusted response rate of 25%. We constructed several logistic regression models with factors hypothesized to influence whether farmers agreed with the statement “I enjoy seeing wolves on my land”, and three candidate models received reasonable support. Factors most affecting attitudes were, in order of importance, perceived wolf population size, frequency of seeing wolves, perceived seriousness of wolf damage, distance to Park boundary and number of beef cattle (Bos taurus) owned. The factors least influential on attitudes were education and age. Concern over bovine tuberculosis in wild elk also had minimal influence. Of respondents who perceived the wolf population as “too high”, 60% were extremely concerned about bovine tuberculosis in wild elk. Although the role of wolf predation as a potential natural regulator of disease in wild ungulates might not be widely recognized in many areas, we believe this provides a unique opportunity to re-examine the significance of maintaining viable wolf populations.     

Population management of threatened taxa in captivity within their natural ranges: Lessons from Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) in Venezuela

Populations of threatened taxa in captivity within their natural ranges can make important contributions to conservation, but these may be compromised by the inappropriate application of population management goals developed in other contexts. We conducted demographic, genetic, and population viability analyses on the captive population of Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) in Venezuela to investigate the management of within-range captive populations in general, and to better integrate this population into the conservation of Andean bears in particular. We found that although the present population is very small and not internally self-sustaining, incorporation of confiscated wild individuals has resulted in a low average number of generations in captivity and low inbreeding, with moderate gene diversity and a high probability of future population persistence. However, past imports from extra-range populations have been from over-represented lineages of unknown origin, which have mixed with under-represented Venezuelan ones, reducing the future value of the Venezuelan population as a source for founder stock. Our analyses indicate that the rate of incorporation of wild recruits is a major factor influencing proxy measures of conservation value, and distinguishing within- from extra-range populations. This implies that, contrary to conventional wisdom, internal self-sustainability can be a misguided goal in within-range populations, which furthermore may not be suitable destinations for surplus animals from captive populations elsewhere.     

Sex-specific roost movements and population dynamics of the vulnerable long-fingered bat, Myotis capaccinii

The roosts of many IUCN-listed cave-roosting bat species are under threat from tourist development in SE Europe and other regions of the world. Much-needed conservation strategies require, among other information, an understanding of their roost movements and population dynamics, which can now be obtained relatively quickly using advanced models. We have studied the long-fingered bat, Myotis capaccinii, an obligate cave-dweller, in Dadia National Park, Greece. The species formed colonies of up to a few thousand individuals and was highly mobile, frequently switching summer roosts up to 39 km apart, even during late pregnancy. The bats migrated to distant hibernacula including a cave in Bulgaria 140 km NW of the Park. Adult recapture probabilities varied with season and sex: low female recapture rates in autumn, relative to spring and summer, indicated non-random temporary emigration following nursery colony dispersal. The opposite pattern was seen in males: increasing recapture rates in the autumn suggest that males gather in these roosts to mate with females in transit. Adult survival (0.86-0.94) was similar in females and males, similar in winter and summer, and comparable to recent estimates for other bats based on similar modelling techniques. Sex-based differences in juvenile recapture suggest female philopatry and male-biased dispersal. Our work shows that protection of M. capaccinii roosts must extend beyond the Park’s and indeed the country’s boundaries: its conservation requires large-scale, trans-national integrated conservation plans. Our results will apply to many other warm-temperate species with similar life history cycles.     

GIS-based modeling of Javan Hawk-Eagle distribution using logistic and autologistic regression models

Few attempts have been made to model the distribution of the Javan Hawk-Eagle (Spizaetus bartelsi) based on predictions formulated from habitat requirements in West Java or throughout Java Island. This paper proposes a new approach to predicting probability models of Javan Hawk-Eagle (JHE) distribution using the application of logistic regression (LR) and autologistic regression (ALR) coupled with RAMAS GIS, and creating pseudo-absence data using a normalized difference vegetation index from remote sensing data. Habitat requirements of 11 nest-sites in Gunung Gede-Pangrango National Park (TNGP) and its surrounding areas were analyzed and quantified, and the model was validated in southern parts of West Java. The final LR model was used as the starting point for fitting ALR models that account for spatial autocorrelation through the addition of an autocovariate variable using several different neighborhood sizes ranging from 450 m (15 × 15 moving window size, or equal to 20.25 ha) to 1500 m (50 × 50 moving window size, or equal to 225 ha) using 300 m interval. The best model was the ALR model with a 1500 m autocovariate that agreed with the distance between nests in TNGP and the mean home range size in Java. This model showed a significant increase in overall accuracy and successfully removed misclassified pixels. Based on our results, we recommend five strategies for the management and conservation of JHE habitat, including integrated conservation management and increased regulation of wildlife reserves.     

A review of conservation threats on Gough Island: a case study for terrestrial conservation in the Southern Oceans

Gough Island is a remote Southern Ocean Island that, despite having no permanent human population, is under substantial conservation threat as a result of human activity. A considerable proportion of the flora and fauna has been accidentally introduced, and new data are presented showing that ca. 70% of the free-living pterygote insect species are introductions. We describe how endangered seabirds that breed on the island may suffer from human fisheries activities and present new evidence showing that local temperatures have risen significantly since 1963, threatening to alter the architecture and composition of species communities. These observations are an indication that the terrestrial ecosystems of other remote islands in the Southern Oceans may be under greater conservation threat than previously thought. In light of the threats described, we discuss conservation management priorities for Gough Island. To facilitate conservation of the indigenous biota, and that of similar islands elsewhere, we suggest that a combination of proactive measures designed to maintain the integrity of island communities, and monitoring programs designed rapidly to identify new conservation threats, should be implemented conscientiously.     

Modelling populations of long-lived birds of prey for conservation: A study of imperial eagles (Aquila heliaca) in Kazakhstan

Eagle populations worldwide are in decline and their demography is generally poorly understood. We use novel sensitivity analysis of stochastic simulation models to analyse the demography of the worlds highest-density and longest-studied population of eastern imperial eagles (Aquila heliaca), at the Naurzum National Nature Reserve in Kazakhstan. Single variable perturbation (a simple elasticity-type analysis) showed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival but provided no information on how interactions between parameters may influence population growth. Multiple-variable perturbations (a more comprehensive elasticity-type analysis) suggested that population growth is relatively more sensitive to adult survival than is indicated by single-variable perturbation but also that when adult survival is within a biologically reasonable range, other parameters are still highly consequential to model outputs. For Naurzum’s imperial eagles, and for other structured populations of vertebrates, effective conservation and management likely requires an approach that addresses the importance of simultaneous variation in multiple vital rates including both survivorship and reproductive output.     

Dogs on the catwalk: Modelling re-introduction and translocation of endangered wild dogs in South Africa

In South Africa, a plan was launched to manage separate sub-populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in several small, geographically isolated conservation areas as a single meta-population. This intensive management approach involves the re-introduction of wild dogs into suitable conservation areas and periodic translocations among them. Despite the initial failures and high costs associated with wild dog re-introductions and translocations, there is no predictive framework available to quantify which management protocol is the most efficient. We therefore developed an individual-based model of wild dog population and pack dynamics, which accounts for the wild dogs’ social complexity. The model appeared to capture the essential characteristics of a real wild dog population from Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa and to be relatively robust to parameter uncertainty, suggesting that the model is valid enough for addressing management problems. The model enabled us to quantify a critical initial number of packs (two) and individuals per pack (six) necessary for a re-introduced wild dog population to establish itself in the release area. We also found a practically feasible intervention regime at which a re-introduced wild dog population had the best chance of persistence: intermittently adding packs (at least every 6 years) and harvesting disperser groups (as often as every 4 years) for translocation to other release sites, without threatening the small source population. This study demonstrates that individual-based models can be a powerful decision-support tool in re-introduction planning and provides insight into how populations made up of social groups have dynamics, and ultimately persistence, determined by individual behaviour.     

Microsatellite analysis of genetic population structure of the endangered cyprinid Anaecypris hispanica in Portugal: implications for conservation

The endangered fish species Anaecypris hispanica is restricted to eight disjunct populations in the Portuguese Guadiana drainage. The genetic structure of these populations was studied in order to determine levels of genetic variation within and among populations and suggest implications for conservation of the species. Based on five microsatellite loci, the null hypothesis of population homogeneity was tested. Tests for genetic differentiation revealed highly significant differences for pairwise comparisons between all populations, and substantial overall population subdivision (F_ST=0.112). All sampled populations contained unique alleles. Our findings indicate marked genetic structuring and emphasise limited dispersal ability. The high levels of genetic diversity detected within and among A. hispanica populations suggest, however, that the observed fragmentation and reduction in population size of some populations during the last two decades, has impacted little on levels of genetic variability. Data imply that most A. hispanica populations should be managed as distinct units and that each has a high conservation value containing unique genetic variation. It is argued that geographic patterns of genetic structuring indicate the existence of eight management units.     

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species.