Two-sex population projection of the endemic and dioecious rainforest shrub, Gardenia actinocarpa (Rubiaceae)

Gardenia actinocarpa (Rubiaceae)—an endemic and dioecious shrub-small tree of the lowland rainforest of Cape Tribulation, NE Australia—is evaluated for its long-term population persistence using five-year demographic data from three permanent plots of the species. Two-sex, size-specific Lefkovitch matrices were constructed to evaluate the species’ vital rates and extinction thresholds. One site indicated a sign of significant population growth (annual λ=1.056), while the remaining two gave λs close to unity (λ=1.0102 and 1.007). Overall, λ was greater than 1 (λ=1.0281) indicating that G. actinocarpa will increase in population size with time, though male plants were projected to grow faster in number than female plants. Elasticity analyses indicated that the largest size class (>22 cm diameter) made the greatest contribution to population growth (28%), especially the male plants (23%). Also λ was equally sensitive to survival/stasis (45%) and growth (44%) and least sensitive to fecundity (11%). Stochastic simulations gave 0.505 probability of quasi-extinction to 10% of its initial size in 100 years of population growth projection- suggesting that the endemic G. actinocarpa, despite a positive rate of population increase, is indeed threatened. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations showed that to maintain population persistence of G. actinocarpa, efforts should concentrate, following cost-benefit analyses, on increasing seed production coupled with enhancing establishment of individuals in the seedling, juvenile and vegetative phases.     

Assessing sensitivity to climate change and drought variability of a sand dune endemic lizard

Bioclimatic models aimed assessing a species’ sensitivity to climate change incorporate mean shifts in climate variables; however the more acute threat to the persistence of species may result from increased frequency of extreme climatic events, including increased duration and severity of droughts. Here we assess climate-change sensitivity using niche modeling that unlike bioclimatic modeling incorporates both climate variables as well as other habitat features that constrain a species’ distribution. We analyzed the effects of potential increases in drought frequency for an endangered, sand dune-restricted lizard, a species restricted to a narrowly occurring substrate and so unable to move up-slope or pole-ward to track climate shifts. Our niche modeling results indicated only minor losses to the area of suitable niche space at lower levels of modeled climate change; at the most severe climate shifts we tested the area of suitable niche space reduced by slightly more than 50%. However, extrapolating the potential impacts of reduced rainfall on drought periodicity and intensity showed a more immediate and acute impact on the lizard’s populations. Drought duration projections coupled with landscape fragmentation resulted in rapid losses of suitable niche space, beginning in the more arid portion of the lizard’s range and extending into more moderate climate areas. Although there is greater uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change on drought periodicity than with shifts in mean conditions, our results show a greater potential for droughts to negatively impact species’ resilience to such changes.     

Long-term dynamics and population viability in one of the last populations of the endangered Spiranthes spiralis (Orchidaceae) in the Netherlands

During the last decades, most orchid species in much of Western Europe have suffered significant declines and the long-term survival of the remaining populations remains to a large extent uncertain. In particular, populations at range margins may be more prone to extinction than more central populations, as the former tend to be small and isolated, occur in ecologically marginal habitats and have a lower per-capita reproductive rate. In this study, we investigated the long-term dynamics and population viability of a population at the margin of its range of Spiranthes spiralis in the Netherlands. At present, only 2 out of 40 previously known populations persist. Individual plants were monitored for 24 years and their life span, flowering frequency and vegetative growth were determined. Individual plants showed large temporal variation in sexual and vegetative growth among years. The proportion of flowering plants varied from 0 (no plants were flowering) to 100 (all plants were flowering). Vegetative growth, on the other hand, increased when the number of individuals decreased. Dormancy was present, but occurred only in a few individuals. Using a non-structured population viability model, future prospects of this species were assessed. Calculation of extinction probabilities and estimated times to extinction using the diffusion approximation model showed that the species had a relatively high probability (79%) of surviving the next 20 years, whereas the median time to extinction was forty years. However, because 95% confidence intervals of the population growth included 1, we suggest that continued monitoring and additional genetic research are needed to assess the long-term viability of this species.     

Population recovery of the threatened endemic Rodrigues fody (Foudia flavicans) (Aves, Ploceidae) following reforestation

In 1999, we intensively surveyed all suitable habitat on the Mascarene Island of Rodrigues and mapped 334 territories of the threatened endemic Rodrigues fody (Foudia flavicans). In addition, we recorded 58 unpaired males, 85 juveniles, and 100 grey-brown-plumaged birds, for a minimum estimated population size of 911 birds. This represents a near 100-fold increase in population size since 1968, which has been achieved in the absence of translocation or taxon-specific management. Birds were generally distributed in direct proportion to the availability of various forest types, but relatively more birds were found in mature, dense forests. Fody density at 10 selected sites, where vegetation surveys were carried out, increased significantly with increasing tree height, canopy cover and tree species diversity. This suggests that habitat management aimed at enhancing Rodrigues fody populations should focus on the protection of existing wooded valleys to allow forest maturation and expansion of afforested areas.     

The role of floral biology and breeding system on the reproductive success of the narrow endemic Petrocoptis viscosa rothm. (Caryophyllaceae)

Morphological and functional characteristics of flowers may have major effects on their reproductive success. Here, we report a study on the characteristics of flowers of Petrocoptis viscosa, a herb species endemic to the northwest Iberian Peninsula, restricted to crevices in limestone outcrops, and currently occurring in only three populations within an area of less than 30 km². We also investigated the effects of pollen source on indicators of reproductive success. The results show that Petrocoptis viscosa flowers are well adapted to autogamy. Inbreeding depression (as determined by comparison of results obtained after selfing and outcrossing) was negligible for fruit production (δ=−0.05) and mean seed number (δ=−0.11), low for seed germination percentage (δ=0.08), but relatively high for mean seed weight (δ=0.23). The spatial structure and small size of population of Petrocoptis viscosa may mean that inbreeding is frequent in natural habitats. Adaptation of plants to autogamy may therefore be energetically beneficial (i.e. less wasted expenditure on rewards and flowers).     

Translocation of Choctawhatchee beach mice (Peromyscus polionotus allophrys): hard lessons learned

Translocation of species for conservation purposes is a key element of many recovery programs. While the benefits of translocations seem obvious, potential negative effects have been described. For endangered beach mice (Peromyscus polionotus ssp.), repopulation of native, unoccupied habitat using translocated individuals has been extremely successful. Once populations are established, concerns over founder effects and isolation have led to proposals for continued secondary translocations. Unfortunately, little information is available to help formulate protocols for these actions. To test the effectiveness of translocation, the fates of 18 translocated Choctawhatchee beach mice (Peromyscus polionotus allophrys) were followed as they attempted to integrate into an established population. We found that translocated groups, repeated for two seasons, tended to use larger homeranges and significantly more burrows than did resident mice. The monthly (31 day) survival rate of resident mice was 3.4 times greater than for translocated individuals. We hypothesize that differential predation pressure was directly linked to the failure of mice to integrate successfully into the existing population. Given our results, we must advise caution and that additional knowledge be obtained before translocations are used to supplement existing populations.     

Distribution of the Mallorcan midwife toad (Alytes muletensis) in relation to landscape topography and introduced predators

The endemic midwife toad of Mallorca (Alytes muletensis) is restricted to a small number of breeding populations in the mountainous northwest of the island. The decline of the species has been attributed to the impacts of introduced species such as the viperine snake (Natrix maura) and green frog (Rana perezi), and toads may be surviving only in areas that are suboptimal for these predators. The influence of landscape features (elevation, aspect and maximum slope) on the distribution of toads and associated predators was therefore investigated using GIS. The presence of toads was positively associated with steep slopes. At sites where they occurred with toads, the distribution of predators was negatively associated with elevation. Reproductive success within toad populations was strongly associated with the number of pools at each site, while reproductive success within individual pools was positively associated with elevation. These findings may be used to optimise the design and location of future reintroduction sites.     

Conservation status and limiting factors in the endangered population of Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in the Canary Islands

Egyptian vulture populations have decreased sharply in the Western Palearctic; island populations are almost extinct in the Mediterranean and the Macaronesian regions. In the Canary archipelago, the species only survives in the islands of Fuerteventura and Lanzarote. During 1998-2001 we examined population parameters and evaluated some potential limiting factors for this isolated and sedentary population. The total population (breeding and non-breeding birds) was monitored annually. In addition, 26 fledglings and 33 immatures (<6 years old) and adult birds were captured for individual marking with plastic rings. Twenty-three/twenty-four occupied territories were located in the island and the total population estimated at around 130 birds. Breeding success was lower than recorded elsewhere in the species' distribution area: only 0.43 fledglings/pair/year were produced. Adult (>6 years old birds) and immature annual survival rates were similar, around 90%. Adult survival was lower than expected as territorial birds seem more susceptible to poisoning. Immature survival could be favoured by the existence of regular feeding places. Casualties from power lines was the main cause of mortality (12 cases during the study period). Blood sampling revealed high frequencies of lead poisoning: 13.5 and 2.7% of individuals showed sub-clinical and clinical intoxication levels, respectively, probably caused by the ingestion of lead shot. Priority conservation measures should be directed to reduce electrocution risks, illegal poisoning, and lead contamination. Population reinforcement with birds coming from other populations is not recommended as previous information reveals morphological and genetic differentiation of Canarian Egyptian vultures compared with continental populations.     

Lessons about extinction and translocation: models for eastern barred bandicoots (Perameles gunnii) at Woodlands Historic Park, Victoria, Australia

In 1998 the protected population of Perameles gunnii (eastern barred bandicoot) at Woodlands Historic Park, Victoria, Australia became functionally extinct following removals of individuals for translocation between 1994 and 1996. Population viability analysis and data collected whilst the population was in decline are used to explore the impact that these removals had on the decline of the P. gunnii population at Woodlands. Due to some ambiguities in the life history of P. gunnii at Woodlands, two structurally different population models were used. Explicitly including the removal of animals in the analysis indicates that there may be at least a three-fold increase in the risk of quasiextinction due to removals. In some scenarios, over 17% of the trajectories decrease to a level less than or equal to 10 females within the observed time period of the collapse of the population, that is by April 1998. The modelling approach identified a number of critical factors in the decline of the population, such as variation in survival rates. By representing the life history strategy using two alternate models, quantitative statements about the impact that removals had on the population decline at Woodlands are made. While removals probably contributed to the collapse of the population, removals were not the sole cause of population decline. The real reasons for decline remain unknown; however, it is likely to be closely linked to habitat decline, difficult environmental conditions and predation. If P. gunnii are reintroduced to Woodlands again, then the models presented here may help to develop management strategies to establish a self sustaining population, as well as exploring translocations options.     

Current status and conservation of white-headed langur (Trachypithecus leucocephalus) in China

The white-headed langur is classed as a category I species under the Wild Animal Protection Law in China. It is distributed only in Karst hills in four counties (Longzhou, Ningming, Chongzuo and Fusui), in the southern Guangxi province of China. The Mingjiang River and the Zuojiang River form its southern, western and northern boundaries, and the Shiwandashan Mountains restrict its range in the east. Population surveys conducted in the 1980s showed that there were a total of 630 individuals in Guangxi, including 244 in Longzhou and Ningming counties, 117 in six fragments of Chongzuo County and 272 in nine patches of Fusui County. Surveys conducted by our group and Guangxi Forestry Bureau indicated that a total of 580-620 white-headed langurs still live in the above four counties, including 210-240 in Longzhou and Ningming, 90-100 in Chongzuo and 250 in Fusui. According to our statistics, only about 200 km² of habitat remains within the current range of the white-headed langur and this is separated as a total of 16 patches in 13 townships. Shangjin and Xiangshui in Longzhou county and Tingliang and Tuolu in Ningming, form the largest patch of the range, with total area of 68 km², while in Chongzuo and Fusui County, the habitat is heavily fragmented with six patches of 43.5 km² in Chongzuo and nine patches of 88 km² in Fusui. At present, the white-headed langur is still suffering from heavy habitat deterioration and human disturbance such as cultivation, tree-cutting for firewood, and poachings even though the government has made many efforts to protect this endangered species, such as putting it as a category I species for protection and designating the nature reserve and stations.     

Population status of the Bornean orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus) in the Sebangau peat swamp forest, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

A survey of the density and population size of Bornean orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus) was carried out in 1995 and 1996 in an area of peat swamp forest in the Sungai (River) Sebangau catchment, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Densities were calculated for four forest sub-types by counts of orang-utan sleeping platforms (nests) along line transects. Densities were found to be highest in the tall interior and mixed swamp forest sub-types. Low pole forest supported the lowest density. Habitat disturbance caused by logging was shown to affect orang-utan density within mixed swamp forest. The orang-utan population for a larger peat covered landscape unit (9200 km²), including the Sebangau catchment, was estimated to be between 5671 (±955) and 8951 (±1509) individuals, based upon the area of each forest type, the level of disturbance in each area and corrected to prevent overestimates. This study identifies the presence of a very large, self-sustaining orang-utan population in this region and emphasises the urgent requirement for greater protection of Kalimantan's peat swamp forests in the light of recent and rapid habitat degradation.     

Patch connectivity and genetic diversity conservation in the federally endangered and narrowly endemic plant species Astragalus albens (Fabaceae)

To evaluate the sufficiency of US federal critical habitat designations and a proposed conservation plan in promoting the long-term persistence of the endangered plant Astragalus albens, patterns of genetic diversity and landscape connectivity were examined. A. albens harbors substantial genetic variation and shows no evidence of historic bottlenecks, suggesting little risk of extinction due to genetic homogeneity (A = 2.40; P = 0.50) or inbreeding (f = −0.08) within occurrences. Low genetic differentiation among occurrences (θ_p = 0.01) indicates relatively high gene flow or little genetic drift. The 91 patches of A. albens were connected into a single network at a distance of 2100 m; 94% of patches were <1000 m from at least one other patch. Managing ecological conditions that maintain large population sizes and connectivity among populations throughout the species’ ecological and geographic ranges will most likely conserve existing diversity. Both reserve networks partially accomplish these goals by including most extant occurrences and >89% of the aerial extent of the species, including the largest populations, and capturing all detected alleles. However, both conservation networks fail to conserve occurrences from one portion of the species’ range, possibly speeding loss of unique local adaptations. In addition, connectivity of the whole network is reduced with the 65 patches designated as critical habitat being connected at a distance of 6200 m and the proposed reserve sites being connected at a distance of 9500 m. Although total network connectivity would be reduced, connectivity at scales most relevant to gene flow (e.g., <1000 m) remains sufficiently in tact to provide a relatively promising outlook for species persistence.     

Consequences of the spatial configuration of resources for the distribution and dynamics of the endangered Parnassius apollo butterfly

Based on several years of data from two populations of the endangered Apollo butterfly (Parnassius apollo, L. 1758), we study how the amount and spatial location of patches of larval (host-plant) and adult (nectar plant) resources affects the distribution of females and their larval offspring in the following year. In the coastal population (nectar-plant and host-plant patches spatially segregated), females moved frequently between patches to aggregate on larger host-plant patches close to nectar-plant patches. In the archipelago population (where nectar-plants and host-plants co-occur), the abundance of females increased with higher proximity to other host-plant patches and with more nectar-plants on the patch. Next year’s larval abundance correlated with the abundance of females in the previous season in both populations. A model of the population dynamics in the two populations in relation to the spatial configuration of nectar and host-plant patches showed that the spatial configuration of larval and adult resources had population-dynamical consequences. In many organisms, different life-history stages use different resources. Incorporation of information on the location and abundance of adult resources can provide additional insight for the suitability of a particular landscape in harbouring a population.     

Evaluating recovery strategies for an ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) population in the united states

The ocelot Leopardus pardalis population in the United States was listed as endangered in 1982, with only two known isolated breeding populations occurring in southern Texas. Conservation concerns for ocelots include loss of dense thornshrub habitat, mortality from ocelot-vehicle collisions, and genetic erosion. In this study, we used a population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate four recovery strategies (i.e., supplementation of additional ocelots, reduced road mortality, habitat protection and restoration, and linkage of two breeding populations) for ocelot conservation management. We used the VORTEX (Version 9.42) program to conduct our PVA for an ocelot population located in Cameron County, Texas. Each scenario was simulated 500 times over 100 years. We compared the effectiveness of recovery strategies and combinations thereof with estimates of extinction probability and final population size. Model scenarios with no recovery strategies predicted an extinction probability of 0.65 for the Cameron population of ocelots over 100 years. The protection and restoration of thornshrub habitat was the most effective recovery strategy, followed by population linkage and reduced road mortality, with the supplementation of ocelots being the least effective strategy. Protection and restoration of ocelot habitat cannot be accomplished without the participation of private landowners. Using an adaptive management approach, future actions need to be taken to monitor ocelot populations and habitats and help to reduce the high probability of extinction predicted in our PVA for the ocelot population in Cameron County.     

Rockfish (Sebastes) that are evolutionarily isolated are also large, morphologically distinctive and vulnerable to overfishing

In an age of triage, we must prioritize species for conservation effort. Species more isolated on the tree of life are candidates for increased attention. The rockfish genus Sebastes is speciose (>100 spp.), morphologically and ecologically diverse and many species are heavily fished. We used a complete Sebastes phylogeny to calculate a measure of evolutionary isolation for each species and compared this to their morphology and imperilment. We found that evolutionarily isolated species in the northeast Pacific are both larger-bodied and, independent of body size, morphologically more distinctive. We examined extinction risk within rockfish using a compound measure of each species’ intrinsic vulnerability to overfishing and categorizing species as commercially fished or not. Evolutionarily isolated species in the northeast Pacific are more likely to be fished, and, due to their larger sizes and to life history traits such as long lifespan and slow maturation rate, they are also intrinsically more vulnerable to overfishing. Finally, the set of northeast Pacific species that are both fished and most intrinsically vulnerable to fishing are among the most evolutionarily distinctive. These findings suggest that, at least for this clade, extra attention should be paid to evolutionary distinctiveness when prioritizing species for conservation.     

Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations

Climate change creates new challenges for biodiversity conservation. Species ranges and ecological dynamics are already responding to recent climate shifts, and current reserves will not continue to support all species they were designed to protect. These problems are exacerbated by other global changes. Scholarly articles recommending measures to adapt conservation to climate change have proliferated over the last 22 years. We systematically reviewed this literature to explore what potential solutions it has identified and what consensus and direction it provides to cope with climate change. Several consistent recommendations emerge for action at diverse spatial scales, requiring leadership by diverse actors. Broadly, adaptation requires improved regional institutional coordination, expanded spatial and temporal perspective, incorporation of climate change scenarios into all planning and action, and greater effort to address multiple threats and global change drivers simultaneously in ways that are responsive to and inclusive of human communities. However, in the case of many recommendations the how, by whom, and under what conditions they can be implemented is not specified. We synthesize recommendations with respect to three likely conservation pathways: regional planning; site-scale management; and modification of existing conservation plans. We identify major gaps, including the need for (1) more specific, operational examples of adaptation principles that are consistent with unavoidable uncertainty about the future; (2) a practical adaptation planning process to guide selection and integration of recommendations into existing policies and programs; and (3) greater integration of social science into an endeavor that, although dominated by ecology, increasingly recommends extension beyond reserves and into human-occupied landscapes.     

Population decline of Macaca sylvanus in the middle atlas of Morocco

An eight-year-long census and habitat evaluation of the Macaca sylvanus population was conducted in a 484-km² area of the central region of the Middle Atlas Mountains in Morocco between June 1994 and October 2002. The authors walked a 93.5-km circuit - divided into 16 transect segments - 30 times with teams of trained research assistant volunteers, collecting data on a total of 2,805 linear km. Previous studies had reported an average density of 44-70 individuals per km², while data from the present study indicate a progressive population decline, from 25 to 30 individuals per km², down to a current average density of 7-10 I/km². The population decline is attributed to the loss of prime habitat, mainly cedar forest, which has significantly decreased from 1994 to 2002, due to the growing impact of overgrazing by mixed flocks of goats and sheep and consequent forest degradation. At present, human-caused habitat deterioration in the Middle Atlas risks further compromising the future of the world’s only remaining large M. sylvanus population.     

Environmental change hastens the demise of the critically endangered riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis)

Declining population numbers coupled with the growing evidence of global change have focussed attention on the critically endangered riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis) endemic to South Africa. The aim of this study is to develop a habitat model to aid in the identification of isolated populations, offer opportunities for re-introduction or introduction, and guide future conservation efforts by assessing the possible impacts of global change. We attempt a novel approach where plant species which afford the riverine rabbit cover from predation and its primary food sources are modelled utilising the same technique and are included as a predictor variable in the habitat model for both current and future projections of potential habitat. Inclusion of this proximal variable as well as riparian areas yields a more parsimonious habitat model than using climatic variables alone. Results suggest that unsurveyed suitable habitat east of Victoria West might harbour previously overlooked isolated populations or offer new opportunities for re-introductions. Future climatic conditions under the most severe general circulation model for the region (HADCM3) suggest that, on average, in excess of 96% of the current habitat could become unsuitable, mitigated only slightly by a possible 7% increase in range in adjacent upper catchment areas. Consideration of existing land transformation increases this range reduction by a further 1%. Given that ex situ captive breeding programmes have met with no success and that the bulk of future potential range lies well outside of the currently known and surveyed areas the current adaptation options of conservancy establishment and captive breeding need to be re-evaluated. Without positive human intervention the future of the critically endangered riverine rabbit under conditions of global change seems certain.     

Habitat specificity, seed germination and experimental translocation of the endangered herb Brachycome muelleri (Asteraceae)

Brachycome muelleri Sonder (Corunna daisy) is an endangered annual herb, endemic to the upper Eyre Peninsula of South Australia. It is restricted to a single population occupying an area of approximately 3 ha on steep, south-facing cliff-foot slopes of the Baxter Hills. Its unique habitat, within an otherwise generally arid region, optimises soil moisture retention through the provision of concentrated water catchment, shade, and low evaporation rates during the growing season. Weeds had the potential to significantly disrupt recruitment, growth and reproductive output, but grazing did not constitute a direct threat to the population. Fresh seeds were innately dormant, requiring a period of after-ripening before they would germinate. Dormancy was artificially broken by gibberellic acid (GA₃) treatment. Germination was optimal at 20 °C, and it was proposed that temperature plays an important role in regulating germination in situ. B. muelleri seeds did not respond to smoked water treatment, and GA₃ (1000 mg l⁻¹) was recommended as a routine seed treatment to stimulate germination. Trial translocations using seed as founder propagules resulted in low establishment, growth and flowering rates. Established seedlings provided several advantages over seed as founder propagules, including higher success rates, more vigorous growth, and improved seed yields in the first season. Successful regeneration, proliferation and expansion of a new translocated population was observed and recorded over four consecutive years. We suggest that conservation management of this species should include the establishment of several new populations by translocation to suitable, isolated, weed-free sites.