基于多变量时间序列模型的大安市地下水埋深预测

依据大安市2000—2009年的降水、蒸发、地下水开采量和地下水埋深等数据资料,首先利用主成分分析法确定了与地下水埋深相关性较大的影响因素,然后利用多变量时间序列CAR模型建立了大安市地下水埋深预测模型,并对模型进行验证,利用模型预测了地下水埋深。结果表明,农业用水量、降水量和蒸发量与地下水埋深的相关系数分别为:0.56,0.46,-0.13,三者对地下水埋深的贡献率分别为:43.09%,27.45%,21.39%,总贡献率达91.93%,是影响地下水埋深的主要因素。CAR模型预测的承压水埋深和潜水埋深与实际观测值之间的相对误差不超过5%。根据预测方案,当降水量减少10%,蒸发量增加9%,农业用水量增加11%时,承压水埋深将达到8.70 m,潜水埋深将达到4.55 m。干旱时期应适当减少农业开采量,增加地表水灌溉,减小土壤沙漠化发生的可能。     

基于模糊识别理论的陕西省典型县域水资源承载力评价

以陕西省不同地貌类型区分布的9个典型县域为研究对象,选取人均水资源可利用量、人均水资源占有量、单位GDP用水量、水资源开发利用率、单位耕地水资源量、单位面积水资源量、灌溉率等7项评价指标,采用模糊识别理论模型,计算得到水资源承载能力（WRCC）的相对隶属度和影响因子的贡献率;在考虑主观权重条件下,基于互补理论的二元对比方法确定主观权重,通过级别特征值计算得到典型县域WRCC级别。结果表明,陕南地区4个县的水资源充足,其水资源与经济发展较为协调,可开发潜力很大;关中地区3个县水资源已严重超载,需要采取措施进行人工干预;陕北地区靖边和安塞县水资源不富足。     

内蒙古荒漠草原降水有效性分析——基于苏尼特右旗过程降水量的监测

研究选取内蒙古苏尼特右旗,通过分析2015年5月至2016年12月日降水数据和同期不同深度土壤（0~10 cm,10~20 cm,20~30 cm,30~40 cm和40~50 cm）含水量日连续观测数据,探讨降水事件对荒漠草原土壤含水量的影响。结果表明:① 降水量对表层土壤（0~10 cm,10~20 cm）含水量影响最剧烈,且2层土壤含水量与降水量存在显著的正相关关系,其余3层土壤含水量对降水事件响应不显著。②0~10 cm、10~20 cm土壤层的最小有效降水量分别为6.4 mm和8.33 mm。③ 结合最小有效降水量进一步推导0~10 cm及10~20 cm土壤层的有效降水转化率发现,0~10 cm土壤最大有效降水转化率可达到95%,但是大部分都是在70%左右;10~20 cm最大有效降水转化率可达90%,但是大部分都是在50%左右。     

近40年来沧州地区水资源的气候特征

利用沧州地区6个站点1970-2004年的平均气温及降水量资料,分析沧州地区水资源的气候特征.初步得出:自1985年发生由冷到暖的突变以来,本地区气温呈上升趋势.降水量、蒸发量和可利用降水资源量季节分布和逐月分布一致,夏季降水最为丰富,秋季次之,春季和冬季最少;而蒸发量每年1月最少,7月最大.但降水量和可利用降水资源量年际间变幅很大,且呈减少趋势,蒸发量变幅没有降水量变幅大,且年际间相对稳定.     

石羊河流域全新世不同时段降水量的估算

利用水热平衡模型,并结合实地考察和历史文献分析,恢复了石羊河流域全新世四个特征时期的降水量。结果表明:在6.5~5.8kaB.P、5.5~5.2kaB.P、3.6kaB.P、1.5kaB.P四个特征时期石羊河流域的降水量分别为167mm、157mm、152mm、147mm,分别比现在多30%、21%、15%和10%。降水量的这种变化趋势说明自全新世中期以来,石羊河流域的气候是趋于向干旱化的方向发展的。这一结论为研究本区土地退化、荒漠化等环境问题提供了自然背景。     

6700～5800 yr BP期间石羊河流域的水量平衡

根据石羊河流域终端地区具有14C测年的湖岸地貌、沉积证据恢复了古湖泊面积,运用水热平衡模型计算了石羊河流域6700~5800 yr BP期间的古降水量。主要结论如下:古湖泊面积在1∶5万DEM图上得出为581km2;通过对全新世以来的七级岸堤所匡算的湖面面积做线性回归,得出自然状态下现代的湖泊面积约为126km2;对于现代流域温度和流域降水量,分别采用了分布式温度模型和分布式降水量模型得出,结果为6℃/a和213mm/a;利用水热平衡模型恢复的古降水量为293mm/a,比现在降水量高37%。     

长安少陵塬近5年麦地土壤水分变化与土壤水资源研究

通过对2003.3-2007.4西安市南郊长安区四府村麦地0-6 m土壤含水量的测定,分析了长安区四府村麦地土壤水分变化特点及与降水量之间的关系,同时对土壤水资源量对冬小麦生长的影响进行了研究。结果表明:西安市长安区大贫水年翌年春季冬小麦地0-6m土壤水分主要为中效水,土壤供水明显不足,平水年及丰水年翌年春季主要为极易效水和渗透重力水,水分供应充足。大贫水年的翌年春季冬小麦生长期内土壤水分不能正常下渗补给地下水,形成大气-土壤水分循环模式;平水年及丰水年的翌年春季冬小麦地入渗降水能正常补给地下水,形成大气-土壤-地下水循环模式。平水年和丰水年的翌年春季冬小麦地0-1m根系层水资源量变化主要受地表蒸发和作物耗水的影响,1-2m、2-4m层位水资源量变化主要受前一年降水量的影响,4-6 m层位水资源量主要与前一年土壤原有水资源量有关。经历连续两个贫水年之后的2003年春季冬小麦生长受到水分的严重限制,若要达到正常产量,春季需灌溉水量约300 mm。长安区近13年来干旱年和丰水年交替变化,总体来说降水对地下水的补给状况基本正常,通过采取有效的集水保墒措施,干旱年冬小麦也会获得较高产量。     

内蒙古黄土高原区降水规律与集雨利用潜力分析

在黄土高原干旱少雨,地下水埋深较深的地区,通过建立水窖集雨供人畜饮用和作物补充灌溉具有重要意义。本研究利用沙圪堵镇的准格尔旗气象站1959—2000年气象资料,进行降水规律分析。结果表明,位于内蒙古黄土高原区的准格尔旗年均降水量为392.1mm,最大年降水量为635.5mm,最小降水量仅为142.5mm。年降水量在500mm以上的保证率为19%,接近五年一遇,年降水量400mm以上的保证率为44%,可基本上满足短季耐旱作物的生长之需;降水量在300mm之下的频率为21%,不能满足作物生长对水分的需求。有1/3的年份年降水量300—400mm之间,作物生长所需水分亏缺的部分,需要适当补灌。由于4—5月作物播种和苗期降水量少,存在生长障碍,如能在前一年集雨次年春天补充灌溉将有利于全苗和增产。对于10mm以上的降水,保证率80%以上的降水量仅为135mm,保证率60%的降水量为200mm。中雨雨量为达到300mm的保证率只有30%。对于大雨过程,总降水量200mm只有15%的可能性,100mm以上的保证率为60%。如果降水10mm以上才能集到雨水,100m2的集雨面,只有60%的年份产水量大于20方。不同集雨面的集流效益不同,在建立集雨水窖时,要根据水窖体积和集雨面材料的集流效率,合理确定集雨面,保证80%以上的年份达到满意的集雨效果。另外,根据降水规律可利用自然地面进行田间集雨,利用土壤库容保存降水供作物生产之用。     

区域水资源可持续利用指标体系的设计及评价方法研究

通过对区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系和方法的初步研究 ,设计出了包括水资源可持续利用综合指数 1个目标层、水资源量等 5个准则层和人均水资源量等 2 8个评价指标的层次性指标体系 ,并利用均方差权数决策方法 ,对区域水资源可持续利用进行全面分析和定量评价。     

半干旱黄土丘陵区柠条林水分生产力和土壤干燥化效应模拟研究

建立固原半干旱丘陵区WinEPIC模型土壤数据库、气象效据库,修订柠条作物参数,验证模型的精度及在该区适应性,在此基础上对黄土高原丘陵区柠条林地水分生产力和9 m土层土壤有效含水量进行30 a长期动态模拟研究.结果表明,前10 a柠条生长主要依靠土壤储水和降水,水分生产潜力稳定且无水分胁迫,但已出现土壤干层;生长10 a以后随着柠条根系的下伸,土壤水分亏缺加剧,水分生产力随降水量变化呈波动性下降趋势.9m土层逐月土壤有效含水量均呈现明显的波动性降低趋势.模拟柠条生长初期(1～10 a)9 m土层土壤有效含水量以101.0 mm/a的速度递减,此后长期在较低水平上随降水量变化而波动.由此得出,固原丘陵区柠条水分持续利用的合理年限为10 a左右.     

用双涌源能量守恒模型计算浑善达克沙地羊草群落蒸腾量的研究

文章利用浑善达克沙地南沙梁试验站两年的羊草群落气孔导度及相关的环境因子观测数据,用多元逐步回归法建立了羊草群落单一牧草与环境因子间响应关系模型,并用此模型计算出单一牧草的冠层导度。羊草群落冠层的导度用叶宽、株高加权单一牧草气孔导度获得。利用羊草群落冠层阻力及其他阻力按S-W能量守恒模型计算了两个不同水文年的羊草群落蒸腾量。2004年是丰水年(生育期雨量R=274.6mm;P=5%),计算的羊草群落的蒸腾量为430.1mm,实测土壤蒸发169.0mm;2005年(生育期雨量R=178.8mm;P=50%)计算的羊草群落的蒸腾量为378.4mm,实测土壤蒸发124.2mm。     

黄土高原不同类型暴雨的降水侵蚀特征

本文对黄土高原的三种类型暴雨的降水、侵蚀特征进行了统计分析,结果表明：Ａ型暴雨的雨量多为１０－３０ｍｍ,历时一般为３０－１２０ｍｉｎ,最大６０ｍｉｎ降雨量占总雨量的８５％－１００％;Ｂ型暴雨的雨量一般为３０－１００ｍｍ,降雨历时多在３ｈ－１８ｈ之间,最大６０ｍｉｎ降雨量占总雨量的３０％－７０％;Ｃ型暴雨的雨量一般为６０－１３０ｍｍ,历时大于２４ｈ,最大６０ｍｉｎ降雨量占总雨量的８％－２５％。三种类型暴雨的空间分布不均匀程度是Ａ型大于Ｂ型,Ｂ型大于Ｃ型,且Ａ型比Ｂ型、Ｃ型大得多。Ａ型暴雨是引起土壤侵蚀的主要暴雨,其侵蚀性降雨发生的比例占侵蚀性降雨总次数的５２．７％,其侵蚀量占总侵蚀量的６４％。在坡面和沟道小流域,７０％的极强烈侵蚀是由Ａ型暴雨产生的。     

河西走廊东部人工增雨试验效果评估

采用非随机试验,运用序列试验法、区域对比试验法、区域双比试验法和区域回归试验法,分析了1997-2004年5～9月份在河西走廊东部进行的人工增雨作业.试验发现,实施人工增雨作业后,8年平均累计增加降雨量131.5 mm,平均相对增雨率为26%.说明河西走廊东部进行的人工增雨效果是明显的,进行人工增雨是可行的.人工增雨为河西走廊东部开发利用空中水资源、改善环境、增加水库蓄水开辟了新的途径.     

Characteristics of deep drainage and soil water in the mobile sandy lands of Inner Mongolia,northern China

 Quantification of deep drainage and the response of soil water content to rainfall patterns are critical for an effective management strategy of soil water conservation and groundwater utilization. However, information on how rainfall characteristics influence soil water dynamics and deep drainage in mobile sandy lands are lacking. We used an underground chamber to examine the response of deep drainage and soil water content in mobile sandy lands to rainfall characteristics during the growing season of 2010, 2011 and 2012. Results showed that rainfall in this area was dominated by small events (≤5 mm), which increased soil water content in the surface soil layers (0–40 cm), but did not increase soil water content at the deeper soil layers (greater than 40 cm). Soil water content at the 0–100 cm depth increased significantly when the total amount of rain was >20 mm. Rainfall amount, intensity and the duration of dry intervals were significantly related to the soil water content at different soil layers. Deep drainage was significantly correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, but not with the duration of the dry interval. The coefficients of deep drainage in mobile sandy lands ranged from 61.30% to 67.94% during the growing seasons. Our results suggested that rainfall infiltration in these widespread mobile sandy lands had considerable potential to increase soil water storage while recharging the groundwater in this region.     

Simazine dynamics in a vineyard soil at Casablanca valley, Chile

Field dissipation, soil movement and laboratory leaching studies were performed to elucidate the effect of two rainfall amounts in the behaviour and environmental fate of simazine under climatic conditions at Casablanca Valley, Chile. Dissipation and soil movement were studied in a field vineyard with a sandy loam soil (Inceptisol; 74.08% sand; 14.87% silt and 11.04% clay). Simazine was applied to bare soil at 2.0 kg AI ha(-1), and its concentration was measured using immunoassay (ELISA) at 0, 10, 20, 40 and 90 days after application under two rainfall amounts, natural field conditions (39 mm) and modified conditions (39 + 180 mm). Simazine leaching was studied using soil core PVC lysimeters (0.9 m height; 0.22 m diameter). Field dissipation data were adjusted with a bi-exponential model. Half-life (DT(50)) values varied between 31.3 (+/-2.5) and 19.0 (+/-4.2) days under natural and modified conditions, respectively. Simazine K(d) varied from 0.42 to 2.15 (K(oc) 32.6-216.2) in the soil profile. Simazine was detected at a 90-cm soil depth in concentrations of 0.0085 (+/-0.0043) mg kg(-1) and 0.0321 (+/-0.001) mg kg(-1) under field and modified conditions, respectively. The maximum simazine leachate concentrations were 0.013 (+/-0.00084) mg litre(-1) (0.012% of total applied simazine) and 0.0084 (+/-0.00082) mg litre(-1) (0.11% of total applied simazine) for field and modified conditions respectively. These data indicate that water quantity has a significant effect on the DT(50) and the amount of simazine that moved through the soil profile, but not on the soil depth reached by this herbicide.     

模拟降雨条件下谷子和冬小麦植株对降雨再分配过程的影响

以谷子（ Setaria italica）、冬小麦（ Triticum aestivum Linn 。）为研究对象,利用人工模拟降雨测定了不同降雨强度和生长阶段两种作物植株的穿透雨,采用人工喷雾法测定了不同生长阶段的冠层截留,根据水量平衡法计算了不同观测阶段的茎秆流。结果表明：谷子、冬小麦冠层对降雨的再分配作用显著,谷子冠下穿透雨率平均约为79％,茎秆流率平均约为20％,冠层截留率平均约占1％;冬小麦冠下穿透雨率平均约为79％,茎秆流率平均约为19％,冠层截留率平均约占2％。在其全生育期内,两种作物冠下穿透雨与茎秆流呈彼此消长趋势。穿透雨量和茎秆流量与降雨强度呈显著正相关关系,但是穿透雨率和茎秆流率与降雨强度的关系不显著。茎秆流量和冠层截留量及其二者占总降雨量的比率均与作物叶面积指数呈显著正相关关系,但穿透雨量及穿透雨率随叶面积指数增加呈显著下降趋势。     

Quantification of groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration along a semi-arid wetland transect using diurnal water table fluctuations

Groundwater is a vital water resource in arid and semi-arid areas. Diurnal groundwater table fluctuations are widely used to quantify rainfall recharge and groundwater evapotranspiration(ET_g). To assess groundwater resources for sustainable use, we estimated groundwater recharge and ET_g using the diurnal water table fluctuations at three sites along a section with different depths to water table(DWT) within a wetland of the Mukai Lake in the Ordos Plateau, Northwest China. The water table level was monitored at an hourly resolution using a Keller DCX-22 A data logger that measured both the total pressure and barometric pressure, so that the effect of barometric pressure could be removed. At this study site, a rapid water table response to rainfall was observed in two shallow wells(i.e., Obs1 and Obs2), at which diurnal water table fluctuations were also observed over the study period during rainless days, indicating that the main factors influencing water table variation are rainfall and ET_g. However, at the deep-water table site(Obs3), the groundwater level only reacted to the heaviest rainfalls and showed no diurnal variations. Groundwater recharge and ET_g were quantified for the entire hydrological year(June 2017–June 2018) using the water table fluctuation method and the Loheide method, respectively, with depth-dependent specific yields. The results show that the total annual groundwater recharge was approximately 207 mm, accounting for 52% of rainfall at Obs1, while groundwater recharge was approximately 250 and 21 mm at Obs2 and Obs3, accounting for 63% and 5% of rainfall, respectively. In addition, the rates of groundwater recharge were mainly determined by rainfall intensity and DWT. The daily mean ET_g at Obs1 and Obs2 over the study period was 4.3 and 2.5 mm, respectively, and the main determining factors were DWT and net radiation.     

不同降雨历时梯田和坡耕地的土壤水分入渗特征

以黄土高原丘陵沟壑第三副区庄浪县为例,研究不同降雨历时条件下坡耕地和水平梯田土壤(黄绵土)水分入渗变化特征,应用Hydrus-1D模型对不同降雨条件下的土壤水分入渗进行定量模拟研究。结果表明:(1)与实测数据相比,Hydrus-1D模型模拟降雨后土壤水分的运移较合理。(2)地表层(0~40 cm)土壤含水量变异系数(CV)呈中等变异,即5 d的时间内梯田和坡耕地地表层的土壤含水量变化大,随着土层深度的增加变异系数减小,呈弱变异性。(3)在1.45 mm/min降雨强度下,在23 min时拔节期的小麦坡耕地产生径流,水平梯田在整个过程中没有产生径流。(4)降雨历时为10 min时,在土层深度为0~15 cm,梯田土壤含水量比坡耕地多0.13%~1.65%,在土层深度为30~200 cm,梯田和坡地都没有下渗。降雨历时为20min、30min时,在土层深度为0~20 cm,梯田的土壤含水量比坡耕地的分别多0.05%~2.22%、0.01%~2%。     

黄土高原侵蚀性降雨特征分析

侵蚀性降雨是黄土高原地区剧烈土壤水蚀的原动力。利用黄土高原6个水土保持试验站20年以上的断点雨强资料和30年的气象站逐日降水观测资料,分析了侵蚀性降雨的发生频率、次降雨量、次降雨历时、次降雨侵蚀力以及降雨时程分布的统计特征:(1)黄土高原6个站侵蚀性降雨平均发生频率分别为7.0~13.4天/年,各站侵蚀性降雨的场雨量均值介于19.17~25.38mm,但变异性很大。各站次降水量、降雨历时和次降雨侵蚀力的频率分布都近似为指数分布。(2)根据本文设定的雨峰标准,黄土高原单峰降水占总降水次数的65%,双峰降水占30%,三峰降水占5%。峰值雨强的频率分布函数大致为Gamma分布中的一种,或者是偏正态分布,侵蚀性降水多为前锋型。上述结果可作为降水过程的随机模拟理论依据,也可以为全面深入研究土壤水蚀机理提供参考。     

Lysimeter study to investigate the effect of rainfall patterns on leaching of isoproturon

The influence of five rainfall treatments on water and solute leaching through two contrasting soil types was investigated. Undisturbed lysimeters (diameter 0.25 m, length 0.5 m) from a sandy loam (Wick series) and a moderately structured clay loam (Hodnet series) received autumn applications of the radio-labelled pesticide isoproturon and bromide tracer. Target rainfall plus irrigation from the end of November 1997 to May 1998 ranged from drier to wetter than average (235 to 414 mm); monthly rainfall was varied according to a pre-selected pattern or kept constant (triplicate lysimeters per regime). Leachate was collected at intervals and concentrations of the solutes were determined. Total flow (0.27-0.94 pore volumes) and losses of bromide (3-80% of applied) increased with increasing inputs of water and were larger from the Wick sandy loam than from the Hodnet clay loam soil. Matrix flow appeared to be the main mechanism for transport of isoproturon through the Wick soil whereas there was a greater influence of preferential flow for the Hodnet lysimeters. The total leached load of isoproturon from the Wick lysimeters was 0.02-0.26% of that applied. There was no clear variation in transport processes between the rainfall treatments investigated for this soil and there was an approximately linear relationship (r2 = 0.81) between leached load and total flow. Losses of isoproturon from the Hodnet soil were 0.03-0.39% of applied and there was evidence of enhanced preferential flow in the driest and wettest treatments. Leaching of isoproturon was best described by an exponential relationship between load and total flow (r2 = 0.62). A 45% increase in flow between the two wettest treatments gave a 100% increase in leaching of isoproturon from the Wick soil. For the Hodnet lysimeters, a 35% increase in flow between the same treatments increased herbicide loss by 325%.