Modelling long-term impacts of environmental change on mid- and high-latitude European forests and options for adaptive forest management

The process based model SMART–SUMO–WATBAL was applied to 166 intensive monitoring forest plots of mid- and high-latitude Europe to evaluate the effects of expected future changes in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition on forest growth (net annual increment). These results were used in the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN (European Forest Information SCENario model) to upscale impacts of environmental change and to combine these results with adapted forest management. Because of the few plots available, Mediterranean countries were excluded from analyses. Results are presented for 109 million ha in 23 European countries.     

Future harvesting pressure on European forests

We provide quantitative insight in the spatial distribution of the future supply of wood as a raw material from European forests (27 countries) until 2060. This supply is tested for two scenarios: ‘projection of historical management’ and ‘new management trends’ and compared against a benchmark scenario. The new management trends scenario incorporates influences of issues as nature-oriented management, carbon credits and increased demand for bio-energy. The results of these projections provide insight in the state of the European forests and indicate that under the ‘new management trends’ supply can still increase to 729 million m³ by 2060 in Europe, whereby almost throughout Europe we allow harvest to be higher than increment for some time. Without linking countries dynamically through international trade, we identify regions where harvesting pressure is highest. Under the new management trends scenario, the harvested volume is reduced with 82 million m³/year (compared to ‘projection of historical management’) because of stricter management constraints. However, the management regimes as parameterised here allow harvesting pressure to remain highest in Central Europe and some Scandinavian countries, notably Finland and Norway.

Carbon inventory methods and carbon mitigation potentials of forests in Europe: a short review of recent progress

The role of European forests and forest management in the carbon balance has received much attention in research recently. This was particularly motivated by the recognition of forest management as one possible measure countries may adopt in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere. The main method to assess carbon budget in forests is based on traditional forest inventories. This method requires the conversion of measured stem volume to carbon pools. This conversion has been identified as a large source of uncertainty in past assessments. Over the last 5 years, intensive research efforts have resulted in significant advances in the reliability of forest inventory based carbon budgets. In parallel, the impact of forest management on the carbon balance of forest ecosystems has been investigated and the carbon mitigation potential of these activities has been analysed. This paper reviews the progress that was made in these two fields of research with a particular focus on European forests.

Extending rotation age for carbon sequestration: A cross-protocol comparison of North American forest offsets

Through carbon offset programs, forest owners can be offered financial incentives to enhance the uptake and storage of carbon on their lands. The amount of carbon that can be claimed by an individual landowner will ultimately depend on multiple factors, including the productivity of the forest, the management history of the stand, and the program in which the landowner is participating. This project presents a modeling framework for forest carbon accounting which is driven by forest yield curves and carbon pool partitioning. Within this model the amount of creditable carbon generated from adjusting the rotation age of multiple forest stands can be estimated for 46 distinct North American forest types. The model also provides a comparison of total creditable carbon generated under three carbon accounting methodologies: the Department of Energy 1605b Registry, the Chicago Climate Exchange, and the Voluntary Carbon Standard. In our evaluation of a 5-year rotation extension across 102 unique modeling scenarios, we find large differences among the carbon accounting schemes. This has implications for both forest landowners and policymakers alike. In particular, methodologies to account for such issues as leakage, permanence, additionality, and baseline establishment, while potentially increasing the overall legitimacy of any forest carbon offset program, can reduce creditable carbon to the forest owner (by up to 70%). Regardless of the protocol used, we also note strong regional differences, with Pacific Northwest forests of fir, spruce, hemlock, alder and maple being the most effective at sequestering carbon on a per area basis.     

Carbon sequestration in Spanish Mediterranean forests under two management alternatives: a modeling approach

Management implications associated with two different silvicultural strategies in two Spanish pine forests (Scots pine stands in northern Spain and Mediterranean Maritime pine stands in Central Spain) were explored. Whole-stand yield, growth models and individual tree equations were used to estimate carbon stock in forests under different silvicultural alternatives and site indexes. Each alternative was evaluated on the basis of the land expectation value (LEV). Results reveal the appropriateness of implementing carbon payments, because it can clearly complement traditional management objectives in economic terms. Longer rotations on the poorest sites result in a positive economic return by introducing carbon output. The proportion of carbon stock in the final harvest relative to total fixed carbon is always higher in long rotation scenarios. However, short rotation systems produce the highest values of carbon MAI regardless of site index. The impact of carbon price is higher on the Maritime pine stands than on Scots pine stands. For both the species, changes in the discount rate have a minor impact on Carbon LEV. Notwithstanding, the proportion of total LEV due to carbon is greater when the discount rate increases.     

European forest carbon balance assessed with inventory based methods—An introduction to a special section

This paper is an introduction to a special section on inventory based methods to assess the European forest carbon balance. The five papers cover ground based as well as remote sensing based methods, and their combinations and novel modeling efforts for the whole of European forests and forest soils.     

Estimation of biomass and carbon stocks in plants,soil and forest floor in different tropical forests

An accurate characterization of tree carbon (TC), forest floor carbon (FFC) and soil organic carbon (SOC) in tropical forest plantations is important to estimate their contribution to global carbon stocks. This information, however, is poor and fragmented. Carbon contents were assessed in patula pine (Pinus patula) and teak (Tectona grandis) stands in tropical forest plantations of different development stages in combination with inventory assessments and soil survey information. Growth models were used to associate TOC to tree normal diameter (D) with average basal area and total tree height (H_T), with D and H_T parameters that can be used in 6–26 years old patula pine and teak in commercial tropical forests as indicators of carbon stocks. The information was obtained from individual trees in different development stages in 54 patula pine plots and 42 teak plots. The obtained TC was 99.6 Mg ha⁻¹ in patula pine and 85.7 Mg ha⁻¹ in teak forests. FFC was 2.3 and 1.2 Mg ha⁻¹, SOC in the surface layer (0–25 cm) was 92.6 and 35.8 Mg ha⁻¹, 76.1 and 19 Mg ha⁻¹ in deep layers (25–50 cm) in patula pine and teak, respectively. Carbon storage in trees was similar between patula pine and teak plantations, but patula pine had higher levels of forest floor carbon and soil organic carbon. Carbon storage in trees represents 37 and 60% of the total carbon content in patula pine and teak plantations, respectively. Even so, the remaining percentage corresponds to SOC, whereas FFC content is less than 1%. In summary, differences in carbon stocks between patula pine and teak trees were not significant, but the distribution of carbon differed between the plantation types. The low FFC does not explain the SOC stocks; however, current variability of SOC stocks could be related to variation in land use history.     

A novel approach to optimize management strategies for carbon stored in both forests and wood products

We present a new approach to maximize carbon (C) storage in both forest and wood products using optimization within a forest management model (Remsoft Spatial Planning System). This method was used to evaluate four alternative objective functions, to maximize: (a) volume harvested, (b) wood product C storage, (c) forest C storage, and (d) C storage in the forest and products, over 300 years for a 30,000 ha hypothetical forest in New Brunswick, Canada. Effects of three initial forest age-structures and a range of product substitution rates were tested. Results showed that in many cases, C storage in product pools (especially in landfills) plus on-site forest C was equivalent to forest C storage resulting from reduced harvest. In other words, accounting for only forest, and not products and landfill C, underestimates true forest contributions to C sequestration, and may result in spurious C maximization strategies. The scenario to maximize harvest resulted in mean harvest for years 1–200 of 3.16 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and total C sequestration of 0.126 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, versus 0.98 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and 0.228 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for a scenario to maximize forest C. When maximizing total (forest + products) C, mean harvest and total C storage for years 1–200 was 173% and 5% higher, respectively, than when maximizing forest C; and 218% and 6% higher, respectively, when maximizing substitution benefits (0.25 t of avoided C emissions per m³ of lumber used) in addition to total C. Initial forest age-structure affected harvest in years 1–50 < 34% among the four alternative management objective scenarios, and resulted in mean C sequestration rates of 0.31, 0.10, and −0.14 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ when maximizing total C storage for young, even-aged, and old forests, respectively. Our results reinforce the importance of including products in forest-sector C budgets, and demonstrate how including product C in management can maximize forest contributions toward reduced atmospheric CO₂ at operational scales.     

The inventory of carbon stock in New Zealand’s post-1989 planted forest for reporting under the Kyoto protocol

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires reporting net carbon stock changes and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, including those related to forests. This paper describes the design and implementation of a nation-wide forest inventory of New Zealand’s planted post-1989 forests that arose from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry activities (LULUCF) under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol. The majority of these forests are planted with Pinus radiata, with the remainder made up of other species exotic to New Zealand. At the start of the project there was no on-going national forest inventory that could be used as a basis for calculating carbon stocks and meet Good Practice Guidelines.A network of ground-based permanent sample plots was installed with airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) for double sampling using regression estimators to predict carbon in each of the four carbon pools of above- and below-ground live biomass, dead wood and litter. Measurement, data acquisition and quality assurance/control protocols were developed specifically for the inventory, carried out in 2007 and 2008. Plots were located at the intersection of a forest with a 4 km square grid, coincident with an equivalent 8 km square grid established over the indigenous forest and “grassland with woody biomass” (Other Wooded Land). Planted tree carbon within a ground plot was calculated by an integrated system of growth, wood density and compartment allocation models utilising the data from measurements of trees and shrubs on the plots. This system, called the Forest Carbon Predictor, predicts past and future carbon in a stand and is conditioned so that the calculated basal area and mean top height equals that obtained by conventional mensuration methods at the time of the plot measurement. Mean per hectare carbon stocks were then multiplied by an estimate of the total area of post 1989 forests obtained from wall to wall mapping using a combination of satellite imagery and ortho-photography.The network of permanent samples plots and LiDAR double sampling methodology was designed to be simple and robust to change over time. In the future, using LiDAR should achieve sampling efficiencies over using ground plots alone and reduces any problems regarding restricted access on the ground. The network is to be remeasured at the end of commitment period 1, 2012, and the carbon stocks re-estimated in order to calculate change.     

Potential impacts of carbon taxes on carbon flux in western Oregon private forests

This study considers a carbon tax system as a policy tool for encouraging carbon sequestration through modification of management in existing forests and examines its welfare impacts and costs of the carbon sequestered. The simulated carbon tax leads to reduced harvest and increased carbon stock in the standing trees and understory biomass. Changes in the level of silvicultural investments vary by owner, depending on the nature of their initial inventory. In general investment under the tax is concentrated in regimes that establish faster growing plantations. Average rotation age increases, varying in extent across ownerships and site qualities. The carbon tax reduces both consumer and producer surpluses in regional timber markets. Producers are compensated by the carbon subsidies, except at low carbon tax levels. Not all rates of carbon tax will attract interest from private owners if participation is voluntary. Estimates of the marginal cost of sequestering carbon in western Oregon private forests are shown to be within the range of costs for projects considering afforestation alone in some eastern regions of the United States.     

Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests

We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.     

The realisable potential supply of woody biomass from forests in the European Union

Forests are important for providing wood for products and energy and the demand for wood is expected to increase. Our aim was to estimate the potential supply of woody biomass for all uses from the forests in the European Union (EU), while considering multiple environmental, technical and social constraints.The potential woody biomass supply was estimated for the period 2010-2030 for stemwood, residues (branches and harvest losses), stumps and other biomass (woody biomass from early thinnings in young forests). We estimated the theoretical biomass potential from recent, detailed forest inventory data using the EFISCEN model. Constraints reducing the availability of woody biomass were defined and quantified for three mobilisation scenarios (high, medium, low). Finally, the theoretical potentials from EFISCEN were combined with the constraints to assess the realisable potential from EU forests.The realisable potential from stemwood, residues, stumps and other biomass was estimated at 744 million m³ yr⁻¹ overbark in 2010 and could range from 623 to 895 million m³ yr⁻¹ overbark in 2030, depending on the mobilisation scenario. These potentials represented 50-71% of the theoretical potential. Constraints thus significantly reduced the biomass potentials that could be mobilised. Soil productivity appeared to be an important environmental factor when considering the increased use of biomass from forests. Also the attitude of private forest owners towards increased use of forest biomass can have an important effect, although quantifying this is still rather difficult.The analysis showed that it is possible to increase the availability of forest biomass significantly beyond the current level of resource utilisation. Implementing these ambitious scenarios would imply quite drastic changes in forest resource management across Europe.     

Exploring adaptation to climate change in the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada

The threat of climate change is now recognized as an imminent issue at the forefront of the forest sector. Incorporating adaptation to climate change into forest management will be vital in the continual and sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to investigate climate change adaptation in forest management using the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II. The study area was comprised of 14,000 ha of forested watersheds in central Nova Scotia, Canada, managed by Halifax Water, the municipal water utility. Simulated climate change adaptation was directed towards three components of timber harvesting: the canopy-opening size of harvests, the age of harvested trees within a stand, and the species composition of harvested trees within a stand. These three adaptation treatments were simulated singly and in combination with each other in the modeling experiment. The timber supply was found to benefit from climate change in the absence of any adaptation treatment, though there was a loss of target tree species and old growth forest. In the age treatment, all trees in a harvested stand at or below the age of sexual maturity were exempt from harvesting. This was done to promote more-rapid succession to climax forest communities typical of the study area. It was the most effective in maintaining the timber supply, but least effective in promoting resistance to climate change at the prescribed harvest intensity. In the composition treatment, individual tree species were selected for harvest based on their response to climate change in previous research and on management values at Halifax Water to progressively facilitate forest transition under the altered climate. This proved the most effective treatment for maximizing forest age and old-growth area and for promoting stands composed of climatically suited target species. The size treatment was aimed towards building stand complexity and resilience to climate change, and was the most influential treatment on the response of timber supply, forest age, and forest composition to timber harvest when it was combined with other treatments. The combination of all three adaptation treatments yielded an adequate representation of target species and old forest without overly diminishing the timber supply, and was therefore the most effective in minimizing the trade-offs between management values and objectives. These findings support a diverse and multi-faceted approach to climate change adaptation.     

The impact of nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration by European forests and heathlands

In this study, we present estimated ranges in carbon (C) sequestration per kg nitrogen (N) addition in above-ground biomass and in soil organic matter for forests and heathlands, based on: (i) empirical relations between spatial patterns of carbon uptake and influencing environmental factors including nitrogen deposition (forests only), (ii) ¹⁵N field experiments, (iii) long-term low-dose N fertilizer experiments and (iv) results from ecosystem models. The results of the various studies are in close agreement and show that above-ground accumulation of carbon in forests is generally within the range 15–40 kg C/kg N. For heathlands, a range of 5–15 kg C/kg N has been observed based on low-dose N fertilizer experiments. The uncertainty in C sequestration per kg N addition in soils is larger than for above-ground biomass and varies on average between 5 and 35 kg C/kg N for both forests and heathlands. All together these data indicate a total carbon sequestration range of 5–75 kg C/kg N deposition for forest and heathlands, with a most common range of 20–40 kg C/kg N. Results cannot be extrapolated to systems with very high N inputs, nor to other ecosystems, such as peatlands, where the impact of N is much more variable, and may range from C sequestration to C losses.     

Growth and carbon sequestration by ectomycorrhizal fungi in intensively fertilized Norway spruce forests

A substantial portion of the carbon (C) fixed by the trees is allocated belowground to ectomycorrhizal (EM) symbionts, but this fraction usually declines after fertilization. The aim of the present study was to estimate the effect of optimal fertilization (including all the necessary nutrients) on the growth of EM fungi in young Norway spruce forests over a three year period. In addition, the amount of carbon sequestered by EM mycelia was estimated using a method based on the difference in δ¹³C between C₃ and C₄ plants. Sand-filled ingrowth mesh bags were used to estimate EM growth, and similar bags amended with compost made from maize leaves (a C₄ plant) were used to estimate C sequestration. Fertilizers had been applied either every year or every second year since 2002 and the estimates of EM growth started in 2007. The application of fertilizer reduced EM growth to between 0% and 40% of the growth in the control plots at one site (Ebbegärde), while no significant effect was found at the other three sites studied. The effect of the fertilizer was similar in sand-filled and maize-compost-amended mesh bags, but the total production of EM fungi was 3-4 times higher in maize-compost-amended mesh bags. The fertilizer tended to reduce EM growth more when applied every year than when applied every second year. The amount of C sequestered in maize-compost-amended mesh bags collected from unfertilized treatments was estimated to be between 0.2 and 0.7 mg C g sand⁻¹ at Ebbegärde and between 0.2 and 0.5 mg C g sand⁻¹ at Grängshammar. This corresponds to between 300 and 1100 kg C per ha, assuming a similar production in the soil as in the mesh bags. Fertilization at the Ebbegärde site reduced carbon sequestration, which confirmed the results based on estimates of fungal growth (ergosterol levels). A correlation was found between fungal biomass and δ¹³C in mesh bags amended with maize compost. Based on this, it was estimated that a fungal production of 1 μg ergosterol corresponded to 0.33 mg of sequestered carbon. In conclusion, the effect of the fertilizer on EM growth seemed to be dependent on the effect of the fertilizer on tree growth. Thus, at Ebbegärde, were tree growth was less stimulated by the fertilizer, EM growth was reduced upon fertilization. At other sites, where tree growth was more stimulated, the fertilizer did not influence EM growth. The large amounts of carbon sequestered during the experiment may be a result of fungal residues remaining in the soil after the death of the hyphae.     

Carbon stock and rate of carbon sequestration in Dipterocarpus forests of Manipur,Northeast India

We examined the carbon stock and rate of carbon sequestration in a tropical deciduous forest dominated by Dipterocarpus tuberculatus in Manipur,North East India.Estimation of aboveground biomass was determined by harvest method and multiplied with density of tree species.The aboveground biomass was between18.27–21.922 t ha-1and the carbon stock ranged from9.13 to 10.96 t C ha-1across forest stands.Aboveground biomass and carbon stock increased with the increase in tree girth.The rate of carbon sequestration varied from1.4722 to 4.64136 t ha-1year-1among the dominant tree species in forest stands in tropical deciduous forest area.The rate of carbon sequestration depends on species composition,the density of large trees in different girth classes,and anthropogenic disturbances in the present forest ecosystem.Further work is required to identify tree species having the highest potential to sequester CO2 from the atmosphere,which could lead to recommendations for tree plantations in a degraded ecosystem.     

安徽省森林经营碳汇技术刍议

本文概述了林业碳汇的重要性以及国内外森林生态系统经营现状,分析了安徽省营林措施和存在的问题,并提出提高碳捕获、减少碳排放的相关措施和建议。     

Diurnal and seasonal variations in carbon fluxes in bamboo forests during the growing season in Zhejiang province,China

Bamboo forest is an important forest type in subtropical China and is characterized by fast growth and high carbon sequestration capacity. However, the dynamics of carbon fluxes during the fast growing period of bamboo shoots and their correlation with environment factors are poorly understood. We measured carbon dioxide exchange and climate variables using open-path eddy covariance methods during the 2011 growing season in a Moso bamboo forest(MB, Phyllostchys edulis) and a Lei bamboo forest(LB, Phyllostachys violascens) in Zhejiang province,China. The bamboo forests were carbon sinks during the growing season. The minimum diurnal net ecosystem exchange(NEE) at MB and LB sites were-0.64 and-0.66 mg C m^-2 s^-1, respectively. The minimum monthly NEE, ecosystem respiration(RE), and gross ecosystem exchange(GEE) were-99.3 ± 4.03, 76.2 ±2.46, and^-191.5 ± 4.98 g C m^-2 month^-1, respectively,at MB site, compared with-31.8 ± 3.44, 70.4 ± 1.41,and^-157.9 ± 4.86 g C m^-2 month^-1, respectively, at LB site. Maximum RE was 92.1 ± 1.32 g C m^-2 month^-1 at MB site and 151.0 ± 2.38 g C m^-2 month^-1 at LB site.Key control factors varied by month during the growing season, but across the whole growing season, NEE and GEE at both sites showed similar trends in sensitivities to photosynthetic active radiation and vapor pressure deficit,and air temperature had the strongest correlation with RE at both sites. Carbon fluxes at LB site were more sensitive to soil water content compared to those at MB site. Both onyear(years when many new shoots are produced) and offyear(years when none or few new shoots are produced)should be studied in bamboo forests to better understand their role in global carbon cycling.     

Climate Change Effects on Mediterranean Forests and Preventive Measures

This paper synthesizes and reviews literature concerning climate change effects on Mediterranean forest ecology and management as well as the restorative techniques necessary to maintain forest health, forest yield and biodiversity. Climate change compounded with trends of rural abandonment are likely to diminish forested areas within the Mediterranean basin that will be replaced by fire prone shrub communities. This could be favoured by outbreaks of pathogens, fire and other large-scale disturbances. Landscape fragmentation is expected to impede species migration. Annual increments and subsequent income from forests are expected to decrease. Reafforestations are necessary to ensure the presence of propagules of forest species and their site-specific varieties best adapted to future climatic conditions even though they may be different from the present forest-plant community. Current challenges in biodiversity conservation can only be met by afforestations whose main objective is to maintain ecosystem functioning. A new silviculture must emerge encompassing these habitat displacement and economic concerns while maximizing carbon sequestration.