贵州省生猪生产形势及发展研判

正2018年以来,受"猪周期"下行和非洲猪瘟疫情双重叠加影响,2019年贵州省生猪产能大幅下降,猪肉价格创历史新高,引领CPI较上年上涨2.4个百分点。据统计,2019年贵州省生猪年末存栏1171.27万头,同比下降24.4%;出栏生猪1678.56万头,同比下降10.2%;猪肉产量150.32万吨,同比下降8.81%。     

“双疫”困扰之下我国养猪业发展趋势与对策建议

正2018年全国暴发非洲猪瘟疫情,导致我国生猪生产出现下滑,大量养猪场关闭,补栏积极性受到冲击,引发2019年的猪肉短缺。国家统计局数据显示,2019年生猪存栏31 041万头,同比下跌27.5%,生猪出栏5.4亿头,同比下跌21.6%,猪肉产量4 255万吨,下降21.3%,猪肉价格上涨42.5%。非洲猪瘟疫情问题还在持续,新冠肺炎(2019-n Co V)的暴发对生猪增产保供带来了更大的挑战,将对我国养猪业及相关产业的发展产生深远的影响。通过实地调研并结合典型经验做法,特提出应对"双疫"的对策与建议,供养猪同仁参考。     

2020年我国生猪复产面临的机遇与挑战

2018年8月以来受非洲猪瘟疫情的影响,我国生猪产能大幅度下滑,2019年猪肉产量为4255万吨,同比下降21.26%;2019年全国生猪出栏量为54419万头,同比下降21.57%,年末生猪存栏31041万头,同比下降27.5%。目前我国生猪产业正处于产能恢复的关键时期。2020年1月,非洲猪瘟造成的产能大幅下跌态势还没有得到缓解,新型冠状病毒肺炎又至,1月23日武汉市实施封城,随后各地相继采取封城、暂停公共交通、封路、人员居家隔离、集聚性产业停业等系列措施,这些措施在防控疫情的同时也限制了生猪生产相关物资与人员的流通。在非洲猪瘟和新冠肺炎疫情双重压力下,2020年我国生猪复产的道路变得更加艰难。文章从当前我国生猪产业的现状与挑战以及2020年度生猪产业经济领域发展趋势,两个方面展开论述,分析我国生猪产业面临的挑战并对未来我国生猪市场行情做出适当的预测。     

非洲猪瘟背景下猪场蓝耳病的防控

2018年8月中国沈阳报道了第一起非洲猪瘟疫情,到2019年11月份全国31个省市陆续暴发疫情,导致生猪存栏大幅下降,给养猪业造成了巨大的经济损失。而在此之前,猪蓝耳病一直是影响养猪业最严重的疾病,在非洲猪瘟暴发之后,其关注度明显下降,但事实上,关注度的下降并不意味着猪场的蓝耳病发病率也在下降。     

对非洲猪瘟防控的几点思考

正一、关于非洲猪瘟2018年8月3日,我国确诊首例非洲猪瘟疫情在辽宁沈阳沈北新区发生。截止目前,9个月内在31个省区共发生129起非洲猪瘟疫情,其中家猪126起、野猪3起。从散养户到大型养殖场,不同规模养殖场(户)均有发生,从出栏来看,占比最高的是100～500头规模的猪场。目前行业最大的问题是能繁母猪存栏下降。2019年3月生猪存栏同比下降18.8%,能繁母猪存栏同比下降21%。     

2019年生猪市场主要特征及2020年趋势

2019年受非洲猪瘟疫情的影响,我国生猪产能大幅下滑,2019年猪肉产量为4 255万吨,同比下降21.26%;2019年全国生猪出栏量为54 419万头,同比下降21.57%,年末生猪存栏31 041万头,同比下降27.5%。受供给紧缺影响,2019年生猪价格显著上升,生猪月度平均价格为21.30元/kg,同比上升64.53%;猪肉月度平均价格为33.95元/kg,同比上升51.22%。受非洲猪瘟以及新冠肺炎疫情双重影响,预计2020年上半年猪肉产量同比有明显下降,下半年将逐步恢复,在新冠肺炎疫情和非洲猪瘟疫情风险逐步得到控制后,预计2021年我国生猪产能将恢复到非洲猪瘟疫情之前的水平。国内供给偏紧带动猪肉进口增加,我国猪肉供给紧缺造成价格的上涨,同时也引起了牛、羊、鸡肉等猪肉替代产品的需求上升和价格上涨,最后导致牛、羊、鸡肉进口量的上升。2020年我国猪、牛、羊、鸡肉进口量将保持上升态势。     

各地

正湖南生猪产能持续恢复5月10日,从湖南省统计局了解到,受非洲猪瘟疫情持续影响和新冠肺炎疫情叠加冲击,2020年一季度,湖南省生猪存出栏同比下降,存栏环比连续增加。2020年一季度湖南省生猪出栏1180.2万头,比上年同期减少635.5万头,下降35.0%。一季度末生猪存栏2840.3万头,同比减少736.9万头,下降20.6%;但比上年四季度末增加141.9万头,环比增长5.3%。反映生猪生产能力的能繁母猪存栏286.1万头,比上年末增加38.1万头,环     

畜牧

四川省阿坝州稳定生猪生产保障市场供应2019年,阿坝州加大动物疫病防控和畜产品质量安全工作力度,努力稳定生猪市场,不断减小非洲猪瘟对养殖业带来的不利影响,将生猪养殖业损失降到最低。自4月下旬开始,全州生猪价格逐步上扬,生猪生产形势向着稳定方向发展。上半年,全州生猪存栏28.44万头,同比下降8%;出栏10.98万头,同比下降3.5%;能繁母猪存栏2.74万头,同比下降9%。生猪出栏均价为16元/千克,同比上涨29%;仔猪均价为26元/千克,同比上涨29.5%。     

四川上半年出栏生猪居全国第一 杨秀彬在全省十三届人大常委会第二十次会议上作川猪产业推进和稳产保供报告

正四川省十三届人大常委会第二十次会议7月29日在成都举行。四川省农业农村厅厅长杨秀彬在关于川猪产业推进和保供给情况的报告中表示,经国家统计局核定,6月末四川省生猪存栏3 322.7万头,上半年四川省出栏生猪2 228.7万头,居全国第一。四川是生猪养殖和猪肉消费大省,常年生猪出栏量、猪肉消费量占全国十分之一左右。2017年和2018年四川省生猪出栏均居全国第一,2019年非洲猪瘟快速蔓延,全国生猪养殖断崖式下跌,四川省生猪出栏4 852.6万头,超额完成4 008万头的出栏任务。     

保育仔猪饲养管理技术和疫病防控

<正>随着中国猪肉消费市场的持续增长,仔猪的养殖已经成为养猪业一个重要的利润来源。然而,近年来由于疫病的频繁暴发,如2018年非洲猪瘟疫情,导致了养猪业的严重损失。据行业调查2021年贵州省生猪出栏1 864.3万头,同比增长12.4%;年末生猪存栏1 617.4万头,同比增长18.5%,均超额完成全年目标任务。基于此背景,     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1984

In late December 1984, 1853 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1984 and 35% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 97,794 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 1417 dogs (1.45% of those tested) were found with heartworm. Another 34 dogs were amicrofilaremic, but were diagnosed as having heartworm disease, to give the total number diagnosed in 1984 as 1451 (1.48%). Heartworm was reported from all provinces except Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland but most (1310) of the cases were in Ontario. In Quebec, 126 cases were reported mostly from west of Montreal.

Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 27% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 72% had a history of not having left Canada. Southwestern Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1983

In late December 1983, 2 800 veterinarians across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of heartworm disease in Canada in 1983 and 26% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 59 504 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 771 dogs (1.30% of those tested) were found with Dirofilaria immitis. Heartworm disease was diagnosed in all provinces except New Brunswick and Newfoundland but most (733) of the cases were in Ontario.

Heartworm disease was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 31% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 64% had a history of not having left Canada. Southwestern Ontario continues to be the focus of the infection and most of the dogs there had not left the province previously.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1991

In late November 1991, 1883 clinics in Canada were sent a questionnaire to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in dogs in 1991 and there was a 60.0% response. There were 344,031 dogs tested for heart-worm (HW), 627 were found infected and the prevalence of HW infection was 0.18%. There were 417 dogs with HW in Ontario, 116 in Manitoba, 38 in Quebec, 53 in British Columbia, three in Alberta, and one in Nova Scotia. In British Columbia, all of the infected dogs but one were from the Okanagan valley which, as from 1991, is a new focus of infection in Canada. Most dogs with HW had not been on preventive medication in 1990, and the prevalence among dogs tested and unprotected was 0.59%. That prevalence was considerably higher in endemic areas. Companion dogs, over three years of age and maintained primarily outdoors in rural areas, were most frequently infected. One cat was diagnosed with D. immitis and 33 dogs had Dipetalonema reconditium.     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1985

In late December 1985, 1485 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1985 and 44% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 137,300 dogs were blood-tested to check for microfilariae and 1210 dogs were found with heartworm. Another 36 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number diagnosed in 1985 as 1247 (0.91%).

Heartworm was reported from all provinces except Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Saskatchewan but most (1126) of the cases were in Ontario. Southwestern Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection in Canada. From Quebec, 91 cases were reported mostly from and around Montreal. From Manitoba, 19 cases were reported from Winnipeg and surrounding areas. Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 28% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 78% had a history of not having left Canada.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1988

In late November 1988, 1581 small and mixed animal clinics and institutional veterinarians across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1988, and 46% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 181,577 dogs were blood-tested for heartworm disease and 367 dogs were found with D. immitis microfilariae. Another 60 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number of cases diagnosed in 1988 as 441 (0.24%).     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1989

In late November 1989, 1732 clinics and institutional veterinarians were sent a questionnaire to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis, and 51.7% responded. Of 247,716 dogs tested, 394 had D. immitis microfilariae and 51 were amicrofilaremic for a total of 445 cases and heartworm prevalence of 0.17%. Most (408) of these dogs had no preventive medication and the prevalence among dogs tested and unprotected was 1.01%. That prevalence was considerably higher in endemic areas. Thirty-seven dogs with heartworm had preventive medication. Heartworm was most frequent in companion dogs over three years of age maintained outdoors in rural areas. About 75% of the cases had never left Canada, 26% had clinical signs and 125 were not treated.

Heartworm was reported from British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but 383 cases were in Ontario. South-western Ontario was the primary focus of infection. There were 33 cases in Quebec and 24 in Manitoba, mainly found in and around Metropolitan Montreal and Winnipeg respectively.

     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1987

In late November 1987, 1246 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1987, and 50% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 165,428 dogs were blood tested for heartworm disease and 511 dogs were found with D. immitis microfilariae. Another 78 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease to give the total number of cases diagnosed in 1987 as 589 (0.35%).     

Heartworm in dogs in Canada in 1986

In late December 1986, 1224 institutional veterinarians and small and mixed animal clinics across Canada were sent a questionnaire in order to assess the status of Dirofilaria immitis in Canada in 1986; 46% of them responded. Veterinarians reported that 150,989 dogs were blood-tested for microfilariae and 869 dogs were found with heartworm. Another 65 dogs were amicrofilaremic but diagnosed with heartworm disease and one was found with heartworm at necropsy to give the total number diagnosed in 1986 as 935 (0.62%).

Heartworm was reported from Manitoba, New Brunswick, Ontario and Quebec, but most (810) of the cases were from Ontario. South-western Ontario continued to be the primary focus of the infection in Canada. There were 103 cases reported from Quebec, mostly from and around Montreal, and 21 cases from Manitoba, from Winnipeg and surrounding areas. Heartworm was found most frequently in companion dogs over three years of age maintained mainly outdoors in rural areas. About 33% of the cases were observed with clinical signs of heartworm disease and 81% had a history of not having left Canada.