Climate-induced overwintering challenges for wheat and rye in northern agriculture

Abstract

Winters are typically harsh in the northernmost agricultural areas of Europe, and winter rye (Secale cereale L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) are the only winter grain crops that can be grown. However, climate change is projected to result in milder winters, which may enable cultivation of winter crops to a greater extent in the future than is possible today. In this study we aimed at identifying main temperature, precipitation events and characteristics that have resulted in past poor overwintering of rye and wheat in their current production areas in Finland. Using long-term (1970–2006), multi-location datasets, we compared our findings with the projected major changes attributable to climate change. Mixed models were used to estimate mutually comparable overwintering damage to all experiments and logistic regression was used to determine whether climatic parameters are related to high levels of overwintering damage. Severity of overwintering damage, and associated yield penalties, fluctuate considerably on a year-to-year basis and no consistent reduction in variability was recorded during the study period. Particularly for wheat, severity of winter damage in any one year was associated negatively with area sown in the following year. There was no evidence of consistent genetic improvements in winter hardiness, but rye was more winter hardy than wheat. Current risks associated with rye production related to low temperatures could be alleviated in the future, although overwintering damage currently enhanced by high autumn precipitation could increase due to climate change. For wheat, fluctuating conditions hampered overwintering, which may be an even harder challenge in future when weather variation is projected to increase and extreme weather events are projected to become more common.     

Estimating Exposure to Methylmercury: Effects of Uncertainties

Uncertainties in exposures can lead to biased estimates of slopes and thresholds in the exposure-response relationships that are developed from regression analysis. This paper reviews published exposure and epidemiological studies of methylmercury (MeHg) from the perspective of the accuracy and precision of the estimates used to represent the actual doses received. Sources of such uncertainties, collectively referred to as “exposure errors”, include instrumental and analytical errors, sampling and survey uncertainties, and individual variability in the relationships between the exposure metrics and the actual doses to target organs. Because the relationship between maternal intake and the consequent dose to the fetal brain varies among individuals, epidemiological studies of the effects of prenatal exposure must necessarily be accompanied by larger exposure uncertainties than comparable studies of effects on the mothers. The increased exposure errors typically result in attenuated slopes of the dose-response functions and under-estimates of thresholds, so that part of the apparent increased sensitivity of the fetus that has been developed from epidemiological studies may in fact be due to their inherently less certain exposures. Sources and magnitudes of exposure error found in the literature are discussed and their statistical ramifications are explored with Monte Carlo simulations. The paper also finds that, after adjusting for exposure error, the relationship between dietary intake and blood concentration is consistent with an average half-life shorter than has typically been used and that using population averages yields a consistent but sub-linear relationship between dietary intake of Hg and hair concentration. Investigators are urged to obtain (and present) data on more than one exposure metric, so that their relative uncertainties may be assessed independently.     

Advances in pesticide environmental fate and exposure assessments

Globalization of markets and the growing world population increase threats of invasive and exotic species and place greater demands on food and fiber production. Pest management in both agricultural and nonagricultural settings employs established practices and new biological, chemical, and management technologies. Pesticides are an essential tool in integrated pest management. Without pesticides a significant percentage of food and fiber crops would be lost, infectious diseases would increase, and valuable native habitats would be devastated. Therefore, it is important to understand the environmental fate of pesticides and assess their potential exposure and associated risks to human health and the environment. This paper summarizes the Advances in Pesticide Environmental Fate and Exposure Assessment symposium held at the 231st National Meeting of the American Chemical Society (Atlanta, GA, 2006). The focus of the symposium was to provide current information on advances in pesticide environmental fate and exposure assessments. Thirty papers were presented on advances ranging from subcellular processes to watershed-scale studies on topics including chemical degradation, sorption, and transport; improved methodologies; use of modeling and predictive tools; exposure assessment; and treatment and remediation. This information is necessary to develop more effective pesticide use and management practices, to better understand pesticide fate and associated exposures and risks, to develop mitigation and remediation strategies, and to establish sound science-based regulations.     

Estimating the Health Impact of Climate Change With Calibrated Climate Model Output

Studies on the health impacts of climate change routinely use climate model output as future exposure projection. Uncertainty quantification, usually in the form of sensitivity analysis, has focused predominantly on the variability arise from different emission scenarios or multi-model ensembles. This paper describes a Bayesian spatial quantile regression approach to calibrate climate model output for examining to the risks of future temperature on adverse health outcomes. Specifically, we first estimate the spatial quantile process for climate model output using non-linear monotonic regression during a historical period. The quantile process is then calibrated using the quantile functions estimated from the observed monitoring data. Our model also down-scales the gridded climate model output to the point-level for projecting future exposure over a specific geographical region. The quantile regression approach is motivated by the need to better characterize the tails of future temperature distribution where the greatest health impacts are likely to occur. We applied the methodology to calibrate temperature projections from a regional climate model for the period 2041 to 2050. Accounting for calibration uncertainty, we calculated the number of excess deaths attributed to future temperature for three cities in the US state of Alabama.     

Tea or coffee? A case study on evidence for dietary advice

The present paper explores the level of evidence required to justify giving dietary advice to the public. There are important practical differences between the development of public health nutrition guidelines and guidelines for clinical practice. While the gold standard for evidence for clinical practice guidelines is a meta-analysis of a number of randomised controlled trials, this is often unrealistic and sometimes unethical for the evaluation of public health nutrition interventions. Hence, epidemiological studies make up the bulk of evidence for nutrition guidelines. Tea and coffee are an interesting case study in relation to this issue. They are two of the most commonly consumed beverages worldwide, yet there is little dietary advice on their use. The evidence for a relationship between coffee or tea consumption and several diseases is discussed. The available studies, predominantly epidemiological, together with animal and in vitro studies, indicate that coffee and tea are both safe beverages. However, tea is the healthier option because it has a possible role in the prevention of several cancers and CVD. While the evidence for such relationships is not strong, the public will continue to drink both tea and coffee, and will continue to ask nutritionists to make recommendations. It is therefore argued that advice should be given on the best available data, as waiting for complete data to become available could have severe consequences for public health.     

Human Health Impact of Exposure to Airborne Particulate Matter in Pearl River Delta, China

To evaluate the potential public health impact of exposure to airborne particulate matter, concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were measured at 16 monitoring stations in Pearl River Delta. Epidemiological studies were collected, and meta-analysis method was used to get the exposure-response functions for health effects on mortality of residents in China. Chinese studies reported somewhat lower exposure-response coefficients as compared with studies abroad. Both Poisson model and life-table approach were used to estimate the health effects including acute effects and chronic effects. For short-term exposure, 2,700 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2,200?C3,400) premature deaths would be prevented annually if PM₁₀ daily concentrations reduced to below World Health Organization (WHO) guideline value. Much more benefits would be gained for long-term exposure. The annual avoidable deaths would be 42,000 (95% CI, 28,000?C55,000) and 40,000 (95% CI, 23,000?C54,000) for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, respectively, if the particulate matter annual concentrations were reduced to below WHO guideline values. And the average lifespan of residents would prolong 2.57?years for PM₁₀ and 2.38?years for PM_2.5 if reducing the PM annual concentrations. The benefits varied greatly in different areas and different manage strategies should be carried out to protect human health effectively.     

Soil and human health: an epidemiological review

Two different approaches have been used to study relationships between soil and human health: aggregate‐ and individual‐level. Aggregate‐level is the primary approach used in the geosciences and broadly relates spatial soil characteristics to geographic incidence of disease. However, this may not be appropriate for a wide range of exposures and disease outcomes. For example, many diseases with long latency periods are associated with early life or cumulative exposure to the causative agent, rather than an individual’s current geographical location. Public health scientists and epidemiologists often refer to aggregate‐level studies as being ‘hypothesis forming’, and consider individual‐level approaches as the ‘gold standard’ for investigating causes of human health outcomes. This paper investigates the appropriateness of individual‐level study for disease outcomes associated with soil by reviewing the weight of evidence from individual‐level studies that have included exposure to soil as a risk‐factor for disease. The majority of these studies are very specific, inspired by explicit case reports and medical records. The review showed that exposure to soil was implicated mainly in the spread of enteric parasites, but also in the incidence of certain cancers, bacterial infections, and mycoses. There was little evidence for specific soil contaminants as causative agents of disease at an individual level but there was also little evidence contrary to this. Further individual‐level studies into soil:human health scenarios are required in order to derive more appropriate dose‐effect relationships for regulatory science and risk assessment.     

Risks due to groundwater contamination at a plutonium processing facility

The specter of contaminated groundwater looms over industrialized, suburban, and rural areas. The sources of groundwater contamination are many and the contaminants numerous. Historical waste disposal practices pose the greatest threat to groundwater in the United States. Common solvents such as trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethane, benzene, and carbon tetrachloride have been found in widespread areas. For this study, a risk assessment is performed using a multimedia environmental transport model to estimate public risk from a contaminated groundwater plume. From 1955 to 1973, a crib above the groundwater plume was used for the disposal of plutonium processing waste. The plume contains chemical and radioactive wastes that could pose a health threat to people living in the vicinity of the site. Remedial designs are selected for remediating the different contaminants in the groundwater plume through a multiple phase treatment process. This study evaluates: baseline health risks to the public, health risk reduction to the public as a result of the remedial activities, health risk to the workers directly involved in cleaning up the site, and costs associated with each remedial activity.     

Antibiotic Resistance Genes in the Human-Impacted Environment: A One Health Perspective

Antibiotic resistance and its environmental component are gaining more attention as part of combating the growing healthcare crisis. The One Health framework, promulgated by many global health agencies, recognizes that antimicrobial resistance is a truly inter-domain problem in which human health, animal agriculture, and the environment are the core and interrelated components. This prospectus presents the status and issues relevant to the environmental component of antibiotic resistance, namely, the needs for advancing surveillance methodology:the environmental reservoirs and sources of resistance, namely, urban wastewater treatment plants, aquaculture production systems, soil receiving manure and biosolid, and the atmosphere which includes longer range dispersal. Recently, much work has been done describing antibiotic resistance genes in various environments; now quantitative, mechanistic, and hypothesis-driven studies are needed to identify practices that reduce real risks and maintain the effectiveness of our current antibiotics as long as possible. Advanced deployable detection methods for antibiotic resistance in diverse environmental samples are needed in order to provide the surveillance information to identify risks and define barriers that can reduce risks. Also needed are practices that reduce antibiotic use and thereby reduce selection for resistance, as well as practices that limit the dispersal of or destroy antibiotic-resistant bacteria or their resistance genes that are feasible for these varied environmental domains.     

A New Approach to Modelling the Relationship Between Annual Population Abundance Indices and Weather Data

Weather has often been associated with fluctuations in population sizes of species; however, it can be difficult to estimate the effects satisfactorily because population size is naturally measured by annual abundance indices whilst weather varies on much shorter timescales. We describe a novel method for estimating the effects of a temporal sequence of a weather variable (such as mean temperatures from successive months) on annual species abundance indices. The model we use has a separate regression coefficient for each covariate in the temporal sequence, and over-fitting is avoided by constraining the regression coefficients to lie on a curve defined by a small number of parameters. The constrained curve is the product of a periodic function, reflecting assumptions that associations with weather will vary smoothly throughout the year and tend to be repetitive across years, and an exponentially decaying term, reflecting an assumption that the weather from the most recent year will tend to have the greatest effect on the current population and that the effect of weather in previous years tends to diminish as the time lag increases. We have used this approach to model 501 species abundance indices from Great Britain and present detailed results for two contrasting species alongside an overall impression of the results across all species. We believe this approach provides an important advance to the challenge of robustly modelling relationships between weather and species population size.Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.     

New indicator for classification of agroclimatic conditions for the cultivation of catch crops

The realization of the benefits of stubble catch crops (CC) cultivated after the harvest of the main crop requires the ability to produce substantial amounts of biomass before the onset of winter. The growth and biomass production of CC is primarily determined by the time period of sowing and weather conditions of the site. The construction of a new indicator of agroclimatic conditions for the cultivation of CC is described. This indicator includes the possible time period for CC sowing according to the harvest time of the preceding main crop, temperature, and water conditions for emergence and growth. The termination of growth due to low temperatures is considered. The assumptions used for the construction of the indicator, and the relationships to CC biomass were validated with data from field experiments. The resulting maps of regions in the Czech Republic with similar indicator values for three groups of CC differing in temperature demands are shown.     

Acrylamide intake through diet and human cancer risk

More than one-third of the calories consumed by U.S. and European populations contain acrylamide, a substance classified as a "probable human carcinogen" based on laboratory data. Thus, it is a public health concern to evaluate whether intake of acrylamide at levels found in the food supply is an important cancer risk factor. Mean dietary intake of acrylamide in adults averages 0.5 microg/kg of body weight per day, whereas intake is higher among children. Several epidemiological studies examining the relationship between dietary intake of acrylamide and cancers of the colon, rectum, kidney, bladder, and breast have been undertaken. These studies found no association between intake of specific foods containing acrylamide and risk of these cancers. Moreover, there was no relationship between estimated acrylamide intake in the diet and cancer risk. Results of this research are compared with other epidemiological studies, and the findings are examined in the context of data from animal models. The importance of epidemiological studies to establish the public health risk associated with acrylamide in food is discussed, as are the limitations and future directions of such studies.     

Managing plant-environment-symbiont interactions to promote plant performance under low temperature stress

Low-temperature stresses, also referred to as cold temperature stresses, including chilling and freezing temperatures, are among the major abiotic stresses that severely reduce plant yield, quality, and marketability and pose a serious threat to plant production during whole plant life cycles. Plant-environment-symbiont interactions determine the symbiotic and crop performance and tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses. To achieve the optimum outcome, it is essential to consider not only plant-symbiont relationships, but also symbiont adaptation and symbiont-symbiont interactions under changing environmental conditions and different plant growth stages. Improving multi-symbiotic component systems and symbiont breeding together can be a useful strategy to improve symbiosis and, thus, crop production. In this review article, the role of interactions between multi-symbiotic components and plant-environment-symbiont relationships and the related biotechnology approaches are discussed in order to find the most effective sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural practices to improve crop performance and mitigate the adverse effects of low temperatures on plants.     

Gender and occupational health and safety requirements among Saskatchewan farm adolescents

Children on farms perform hazardous work that exposes them to risks for injury. Hazards include operation of heavy machinery, working with limited supervision, working at heights, and performing work prohibited by law in other industries. Incidence rates and patterns of injury are known to differ between boys and girls on farms. Farm adherence to occupational health and safety practices, and whether such practices vary by gender, has received limited study in this occupational setting. The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between gender and work practices, and required occupational health and safety practices, within a sample of adolescent children age 12 to 18 years living on Saskatchewan farms. A cross-sectional study was performed. Measures were obtained by self-report. We compared requirements for boys and girls on the following: (1) use of personal protective equipment (PPE), (2) conduct of specific hazardous jobs, (3) training and supervision for equipment work, and (4) training and supervision for large animal work. A total of 434 children were identified, and 297 (68%) met the eligibility criteria. Of these, 170 were boys (57%) with a mean age of 14.5 years (SD 1.9). Occupational health and safety requirements varied by gender; girls were less likely to be required to use PPE (adjusted OR 2.39; 95% CI: 1.16, 4.94). There was no evidence of an association between gender and the conduct of hazardous work. Gender patterns in required training and supervision for work suggested disadvantages for girls, but were not significant. Adolescent girls and boys both performed hazardous jobs on the farm. Girls were as likely to conduct hazardous jobs but not to be required to use PPE. This gender disparity may indicate a need for a public health approach that recognizes gender as a determinant of work assignment and of health and safety practices on farms.     

Impacts of Air Pollutants on Vegetation in Developing Countries

The predicted increases in emissions of primary pollutants in many rapidly industrializing countries may have severe consequences for the health and productivity of forest trees and agricultural crops. This paper presents a review of air pollution impacts on vegetation in developing countries by summarising information describing the direct impacts to vegetation caused by a number of air pollutants (sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O₃) and Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM)). This information has been collected by experts from a number of rapidly industrializing countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa and includes observations of visible injury in the field and the use of transect studies and controlled experimental investigations to ascribe damage to different pollutant concentrations. The ability to synthesise this information to define exposure-response relationships and subsequent air quality guidelines similar to those established in North America and Europe is assessed. In addition, the use of regional and global models describing pollution concentrations is discussed with reference to assessing the extent of adverse impacts and identifying regions likely to be most at risk from air pollution, both for the present day and in the future. The evidence summarised in the paper clearly shows that current pollutant concentrations experienced in many developing countries, particularly Asia, can result in severe damage to vegetation and that without appropriate control measures such damage is likely to worsen in the future as pollutant emissions increase.     

Rethinking research in breast-feeding: a critique of the evidence base identified in a systematic review of interventions to promote and support breast-feeding

OBJECTIVE: To appraise critically the relevance and value of the evidence base to promote and support the duration of breast-feeding, with a specific focus on disadvantaged groups. DESIGN: A systematic review was conducted of intervention studies relevant to enhancing the duration of breast-feeding; topics included public health, public policy, clinical issues, and education, training and practice change. A systematic search was conducted. Eighty studies met the inclusion criteria. Data were systematically extracted and analysed. Full results and recommendations are reported elsewhere. Here a critique of the evidence base--topics, quality and gaps--is reported. RESULTS: Many studies were substantially methodologically flawed, with problems including small sample sizes, inconsistent definitions of breast-feeding and lack of appropriate outcomes. Few were based on relevant theory. Only a small number of included studies (10%) were conducted in the UK. Very few targeted disadvantaged subgroups of women. No studies of policy initiatives or of community interventions were identified. There were virtually no robust studies of interventions to prevent and treat common clinical problems, or of strategies related to women's health issues. Studies of health professional education and practice change were limited. Cost-effectiveness studies were rare. CONCLUSIONS: Policy goals both in the UK and internationally support exclusive breast-feeding until 6 months of age. The evidence base to enable women to continue to breast-feed needs to be strengthened to include robust evaluations of policies and practices related to breast-feeding; a step change is needed in the quality and quantity of research funded.     

Simulation of transport through soil of E. coli derived from livestock slurry using the macro model

Abstract. Leaching of faecal coliforms to rivers, lakes and groundwater following the spreading of animal slurry on land is of environmental and public health concern. A two-stage approach was adopted to modelling the transport processes by which Escherichia coli passes through the soil to receiving waters via field drains. First, parameter values were selected for the dual-porosity contaminant transport model macro to simulate through-soil flows, sorption and die-off of E. coli . These simulations reproduced experimental measurements showing rapid flows of the microorganisms to field drains after slurry spreading, which could be explained in terms of macropore flow in which trapping of colloids such as E. coli does not take place. Second, a series of predictive simulations was carried out to test the influence of soil and weather conditions on E. coli losses. These showed that losses are strongly influenced by soil wetness conditions at the time of spreading, and to a lesser degree by rainfall occurring soon after spreading. Selection of spreading 'workdays' with particular weather and soil wetness conditions is beneficial, which indicates opportunities for substantial reductions in the environmental risks of water pollution by E. coli and other faecal microorganisms.     

Public health implications of meat production and consumption

The high level of meat and saturated fat consumption in the USA and other high-income countries exceeds nutritional needs and contributes to high rates of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus and some cancers. Affluent citizens in middle- and low-income countries are adopting similar high-meat diets and experiencing increased rates of these same chronic diseases. The industrial agricultural system, now the predominant form of agriculture in the USA and increasingly world-wide, has consequences for public health owing to its extensive use of fertilisers and pesticides, unsustainable use of resources and environmental pollution. In industrial animal production there are public health concerns surrounding feed formulations that include animal tissues, arsenic and antibiotics as well as occupational health risks and risks for nearby communities. It is of paramount importance for public health professionals to become aware of and involved in how our food is produced.     

Potential impact of climate change on rainfed wheat production in Iran

Abstract

Mean monthly weather data values from 1968 – 2000 for 12 major rainfed wheat production areas in north-west and western Iran were used with a climate model, United Kingdom Meteorological Organization (UKMO), to predict the impact of climate change on rainfed wheat production for years 2025 and 2050. The crop simulation model, World Food Study (WOFOST, v 7.1), at CO₂ concentrations of 425 and 500 ppm and rising air temperature of 2.7 – 4.7°C, projected a significant rainfed wheat yield reduction in 2025 and 2050. Average yield reduction was 18 and 24% for 2025 and 2050, respectively. The yield reduction was related to a rainfall deficit (8.3 – 17.7%) and shortening of the wheat growth period (8 – 36 d). Cultivated land used for rainfed wheat production under the climate change scenarios may be reduced by 15 – 40%. Potential improvements in wheat adaptation for climate change in Iran may include breeding new cultivars and changing agronomic practices like sowing dates.     

Rivrisk: A model to assess potential human health and ecological risks from chemical and thermal releases into rivers

RIVRISK, an interactive WindoWSTM-based model, predicts ambient chemical concentrations, human health and ecological risks, and water temperatures due to chemical and thermal releases into rivers. RIVRISK simulates chemicals that enter rivers from pipes, through submerged diffusers, from groundwater seepage, and atmospheric plume deposition. Human health risks are calculated for up to 16 pathways via exposure routes of dermal contact, ingestion, and inhalation. Ecological risks are evaluated for aquatic organisms by comparing the river water concentration to a water quality criterion for freshwater organisms. Monte Carlo analyses of ambient concentrations and temperatures can also be performed based on uniform distributions or user-defined histograms of varied parameters. To illustrate the various features of the model, RIVRISK was applied to a case study based on the Glen Lyn Power Plant located along the New River in Virginia.