Relationships between oceanic conditions and growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from California, Washington, and Alaska, USA

We model age‐specific growth rates of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with two life‐history behaviors from Alaska (i. Situk and ii.Taku Rivers), Puget Sound, Washington (iii., iv. Skagit River), and California (v. Smith River) relative to oceanic conditions in those regions. By analyzing over 20 yr of biological and physical data from the NE Pacific downwelling, upwelling, and transition zones, we are able to determine the factors affecting growth across much of the species’ range and between life‐history behaviors. With scale increment data from returning fish, we use path analysis and partial least squares regression to quantify the relationships between growth and regional‐ and large‐scale oceanic conditions (e.g., sea level height, sea surface temperature, upwelling). Alaskan fish with both ocean‐ and stream‐type behaviors were fit best by the environmental data from the winter in Alaska waters. Specifically, coastal and gyre factors such as sea surface temperature, river flow, and Ekman pumping positively correlated to growth, indicating a productive and strong Alaska Current promoted growth. Growth of fish from California was fit by local factors such as increased upwelling, lower coastal sea surface temperature, and wind stresses during summer and spring, indicating a productive and strong California Current promoted growth. For Puget Sound, Washington, growth of fish that migrate to sea in their first year was generally negatively correlated to a strong California Current. Puget Sound fish that spend a year in freshwater before migrating to sea were modeled well with environmental data from their source region for the first 2 yr at sea and by data from Alaska waters in their third year at sea. Results suggest that conditions in which the transition zone is dominated by neither the Alaska nor California Currents are best for increased growth of Puget Sound fish.     

Mid-latitude wind stress: the energy source for climatic shifts in the North Pacific Ocean

Analyses of atmospheric observations in the North Pacific demonstrate extensive decadal-scale variations in the mid-latitude winter surface wind stress. In the decade after 1976 winter, eastward wind stress doubled over a broad area in the central North Pacific and the winter zero wind stress curl line was displaced about 6° southward. This resulted in increased southward Ekman transport, increased oceanic upwelling, and increased turbulent mixing as well as a southward expansion of the area of surface divergence. All these factors contributed to a decadal winter cold anomaly along the subtropical side of the North Pacific Current. In summer the cold anomaly extended eastward, almost reaching the coast of Oregon. The increased gradient in wind stress curl and southward displacement of the zero curl line also resulted in an increase in total North Pacific Current transport, primarily on the Equator side of this Current. Thus, surface water entering the California Current was of more subtropical origin in the post-1976 decade. Southward (upwelling favourable) wind stress and sea surface temperature (SST) in the area off San Francisco exhibit at least three different types of decadal departures from mean conditions. In association with the 1976 climatic shift, marine fishery production in the Oyashio, California and Alaska Currents altered dramatically, suggesting that these natural environmental variations significantly alter the long-term yields of major North Pacific fisheries.     

Seasonal potential fishing ground prediction of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the western and central North Pacific

We explored the seasonal potential fishing grounds of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the western and central North Pacific using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models fitted with squid fishery data as response and environmental factors from remotely sensed [sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), eddy kinetic energy (EKE), wind stress curl (WSC) and numerical model‐derived sea surface salinity (SSS)] covariates. The potential squid fishing grounds from January–February (winter) and June–July (summer) 2001–2004 were simulated separately and covered the near‐coast (winter) and offshore (summer) forage areas off the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition and subarctic frontal zones. The oceanographic conditions differed between regions and were regulated by the inherent seasonal variability and prevailing basin dynamics. The seasonal and spatial extents of potential squid fishing grounds were largely explained by SST (7–17°C in the winter and 11–18°C in the summer) and SSS (33.8–34.8 in the winter and 33.7–34.3 in the summer). These ocean properties are water mass tracers and define the boundaries of the North Pacific hydrographic provinces. Mesoscale variability in the upper ocean inferred from SSH and EKE were also influential to squid potential fishing grounds and are presumably linked to the augmented primary productivity from nutrient enhancement and entrainment of passive plankton. WSC, however, has the least model contribution to squid potential fishing habitat relative to the other environmental factors examined. Findings of this work underpin the importance of SST and SSS as robust predictors of the seasonal squid potential fishing grounds in the western and central North Pacific and highlight MaxEnt's potential for operational fishery application.     

Effects of juvenile size at release and early marine growth on adult return rates for Hokkaido chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in relation to sea surface temperature

Using path analyses, we investigated relationships between size at release from hatcheries, the early marine growth of juveniles, and adult return rates for chum salmon from five river stocks of Hokkaido, Japan, in relation to sea surface temperature during ocean residence. Marine growth was estimated using scales collected from 11 760 adults of age 0.3 (1980–2004). The growth and survival of each stock appeared to have a different suite of regulatory processes. Interannual variability in return rates was mainly regulated by size at release in two stocks from the Sea of Okhotsk. A similar relationship was found in one stock from the Sea of Japan, but growth during coastal residency also affected their return rates. In two stocks from the Pacific coast of Hokkaido, variability in return rates was not related to size at release or to the coastal growth of juveniles, but with offshore growth in the Sea of Okhotsk, the nursery area for juveniles after leaving Japanese coastal waters. Whereas coastal growth tended to be negatively correlated with size at release in some stocks, offshore growth was positively associated with the August–November sea surface temperature in all stocks. This study confirmed that mortality of juvenile salmon occurred in two phases, during the coastal residency and the late period of the growing season, but the relative importance of both phases varied by stock and region, which probably regulated year‐class strength of Hokkaido chum salmon.     

Covariation between the average lengths of mature coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and the ocean environment

We used the average fork length of age‐3 returning coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and age‐3 ocean‐type and age‐4 stream‐type Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) salmon along the northeast Pacific coast to assess the covariability between established oceanic environmental indices and growth. These indices included the Multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northern Oscillation Index, and Aleutian Low Pressure Index. Washington, Oregon, and California (WOC) salmon sizes were negatively correlated with the MEI values indicating that ultimate fish size was affected negatively by El Niño‐like events. Further, we show that the growth trajectory of WOC salmon was set following the first ocean winter. Returning ocean‐type British Columbia‐Puget Sound Chinook salmon average fork length was positively correlated with the MEI values during the summer and autumn of return year, which was possibly a result of a shallower mixed layer and improved food‐web productivity of subarctic Pacific waters. Size variation of coho salmon stocks south of Alaska was synchronous and negatively correlated with warm conditions (positive PDO) and weak North Pacific high pressure during ocean residence.     

Tracking environmental processes in the coastal zone for understanding and predicting Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival

To better understand and predict Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival, we developed a conceptual model of processes occurring during four sequential periods: (1) winter climate prior to smolt migration from freshwater to ocean, (2) spring transition from winter downwelling to spring/summer upwelling, (3) the spring upwelling season and (4) winter ocean conditions near the end of the maturing coho's first year at sea. We then parameterized a General Additive Model (GAM) with Oregon Production Index (OPI) coho smolt‐to‐adult survival estimates from 1970 to 2001 and environmental data representing processes occurring during each period (presmolt winter SST, spring transition date, spring sea level, and post‐smolt winter SST). The model explained a high and significant proportion of the variation in coho survival (R² = 0.75). The model forecast of 2002 adult survival rate ranged from 4 to 8%. Our forecast was higher than predictions based on the return of precocious males (‘jacks’), and it won't be known until fall 2002 which forecast is most accurate. An advantage to our environmentally based predictive model is the potential for linkages with predictive climate models, which might allow for forecasts more than 1 year in advance. Relationships between the environmental variables in the GAM and others (such as the North Pacific Index and water column stratification) provided insight into the processes driving production in the Pacific Northwest coastal ocean. Thus, coho may be a bellwether for the coastal environment and models such as ours may apply to populations of other species in this habitat.     

Variability of oceanographic and meteorological conditions in the northern Alboran Sea at seasonal,inter‐annual and long‐term time scales and their influence on sardine (Sardina pilchardus Walbaum 1792) landings

Time series of European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) landings from 1962 and environmental variables from 1978 in the northern Alboran Sea are analysed. European sardine spawns in the northern Alboran Sea from mid‐autumn to late winter at a temperature range slightly higher than the one observed in the nearby Eastern North Atlantic and the North Western Mediterranean. Individuals hatched during autumn and winter are incorporated to the fishery during the following summer and autumn producing the maximum annual landings. These landings show both a decreasing long‐term trend and a strong inter‐annual variability. Although further research is needed, the warming trend of sea surface temperature and the decrease in upwelling intensity inferred from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses could have some influence on the negative trends of sardine landings. The inter‐annual variability of sardine abundance seems to be related to the wind intensity at a local scale, the second principal component of the chlorophyll concentration and the sardine abundance during the preceding year. If the inter‐annual variability is considered, a linear model including these three variables with a one‐year time lag allows to explain 79% of the sardine landings variance. If the negative linear trend is also considered, the model explains 86% of the variance. These results indicate that the body condition of spawners, linked to the food availability during the preceding year, is the main factor controlling the recruitment success. The possibility of predicting sardine landings 1 year in advance could have important implications for fishery management.     

Establishing climate–growth relationships for yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) in the northeast Pacific using a dendrochronological approach

We applied dendrochronology (tree‐ring) methods to develop multidecadal growth chronologies from the increment widths of yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) otoliths. Chronologies were developed for the central California coast, a site just north of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and at Bowie Seamount west of the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. At each site, synchronous growth patterns were matched among otoliths via the process of cross‐dating, ensuring that the correct calendar year was assigned to all increments. Each time series of growth‐increment measurements was divided by the values predicted by a best‐fit negative exponential function, thereby removing age‐related trends. These detrended time series were averaged into a master chronology for each site, and chronologies were correlated with monthly averages of sea surface temperatures, upwelling, the Northern Oscillation Index, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The two northern growth chronologies positively correlated with indices of warm ocean conditions, especially from the prior summer through the spring of the current year. During the same period, the California chronology positively correlated with indices of cool ocean conditions, indicating an opposing productivity regime for yelloweye rockfish between the California Current and the Gulf of Alaska. Overall, this study demonstrates how tree‐ring techniques can be applied to quickly develop annually resolved chronologies and establish climate–growth relationships across various temporal and spatial scales.     

Variation in the distribution of ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits: links with coastal upwelling and climate change

In this analysis, an atypical northward shift in the distribution of age‐1 ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits off Oregon in 2000 and 2002–2004 was linked to anomolously strong coastal upwelling winds off southern Oregon (42°N latitude) in April–July of the year of larval release (t?1). This is the first clear evidence that strong upwelling winds can depress local recruitment of ocean shrimp. Regression analysis confirmed a long‐term negative correlation between log_e of ocean shrimp recruitment and April sea level height (SLH) at Crescent City, California, in the year of larval release, for both northern and southern Oregon waters. The regional pattern of ocean shrimp catches and seasonal upwelling winds showed that, although the timing of the spring transition as reflected in April SLH drives ocean shrimp recruitment success off Oregon generally, the strength and consistency of spring upwelling limits the distribution of large concentrations of ocean shrimp at the southern end of the northern California/Oregon/Washington area. A northward shift in 1999 and 2001–03 in the northern edge of this ‘zone of maximum upwelling’ is the likely cause of the weak southern Oregon recruitment and resulting atypical distribution of ocean shrimp observed off Oregon in 2000 and 2002–04, with a return to a more typical catch distribution as spring upwelling moderated in subsequent years. It is noted that a northward shift in the conditions that produce strong and steady spring upwelling winds is consistent with many predictions of global climate models under conditions of global warming.     

Biotic and abiotic regulation of a low‐density stream‐dwelling brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population: effects on juvenile survival and growth

The effects of biotic (density‐dependent) and environmental (flow and temperature) factors on the apparent survival, mean length and size variation of a low‐density brown trout population in the juvenile stage, that is, from their first summer (0+) to the end of the second year (1+), were determined. Apparent survival was negatively related to the age class density during the three periods (first summer, first winter and second summer). A significant interaction between the mean flow and 0+ density highlighted a gradient towards strong density dependence acting on fish loss (i.e., mortality or migration) with decreasing summer flow. Conversely, no density dependence was reported at higher mean flows. The mean length was determined by density‐dependent and density‐independent (temperature and flow) factors throughout the study period. The negative relationship between fish length and intracohort density was highly significant during the three periods. The yearling (1+) density was negatively related to 0+ fish length measured after the first summer, suggesting intercohort effects. A positive effect of temperature on fish length was observed. Mean length after the summer seasons (0+ and 1+ fish) was also positively related to mean flow. Fish size variation around the mean measured with the coefficient of variation (CV) increased with increasing 0+ densities, both at the end of the first summer and the first winter. Results suggested that density‐dependent and density‐independent factors acted jointly on apparent survival and growth with a predominance of biotic processes. We discussed the potential implications of density‐dependent regulations on growth and survival for population resilience after catastrophic events.     

Large‐scale coherence in New England lobster (Homarus americanus), settlement and associations with regional atmospheric conditions

Time series of American lobster (Homarus americanus) postlarval settlement from southern New England to Atlantic Canada exhibit many common features, and a cluster analysis indicates a block of regions extending from Massachusetts to Maine that have coherent interannual variations. The spatial scale of this block suggests that variability in settlement is related to large‐scale, rather than local, processes. We examined the association between settlement at six reference regions and monthly mean atmospheric conditions (temperature, geopotential height, westerly and southerly wind components, and wind curl) from the North American Regional Reanalysis. We first extracted the dominant modes of variability in monthly averaged geopotential height, temperature, and wind curl. The leading mode from September, which represents high geopotential height, warm temperatures, and negative wind curl throughout the study area, was strongly correlated with settlement at most of the regions. The third mode from August, which represents enhanced southwesterly winds, was correlated with settlement in Rhode Island. Correlations between local atmospheric conditions and lobster settlement confirm the principal component results. Settlement was correlated to varying degrees with geopotential height (positive), temperature (positive) and wind curl (negative) with lobster settlement at the northern sites, with temperature being a stronger indicator in the north and curl a stronger indicator in the south. Rhode Island settlement was strongly correlated with August westerly winds. The correlation between settlement and atmospheric conditions could improve our understanding of stock‐recruit relationships for lobster populations and provides one mechanism for how climate change could impact lobsters.     

Temperature–growth patterns of individually tagged anadromous Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus in Ungava and Labrador,Canada

Individual measurements of annual, or within‐season growth were determined from tag‐recaptured Arctic charr and examined in relation to summer sea surface temperatures and within‐season capture timing in the Ungava and Labrador regions of Eastern Canada. Differences between two years of growth (2010–2011) were significant for Ungava Bay Arctic charr, with growth being higher in the warmer year. Growth of Labrador Arctic charr did not vary significantly among years (1982–1985). Regional comparisons demonstrated that Ungava Arctic charr had significantly higher annual growth rates and experienced warmer temperatures than Labrador Arctic charr. The higher annual growth of Ungava Bay Arctic charr was attributed to the high sea surface temperatures experienced in 2010–2011 and the localised differences in nearshore productivity as compared to Labrador. Within‐season growth rates of Labrador Arctic charr peaked in June, declined towards August and were negatively correlated with the length of time spent at sea and mean experienced sea surface temperatures. A quadratic model relating growth rate to temperature best explained the pattern of within‐season growth. Collectively, results suggest that increases in water temperature may have profound consequences for Arctic charr growth in the Canadian sub‐Arctic, depending on the responses of local marine productivity to those same temperature increases.     

Seasonal variation in marine growth of sea trout, Salmo trutta, in coastal Skagerrak

Abstract –  Sea trout ( Salmo trutta ) originating from small coastal streams can be found at sea throughout the year, in contrast to conspecifics from larger rivers, which typically spend the autumn and winter in fresh water. Such an extended marine stay has been observed in coastal Skagerrak. We studied the seasonal variation in marine growth of Skagerrak sea trout based on scale increment patterns and body lengths of 563 individuals captured at sea. Growth, measured as increased body length, was rapid during summer while there was no evidence for continued growth during autumn and winter. Growth decreased with increasing age of the fish. Our results suggest that coastal Skagerrak is an important feeding area for sea trout during summer, and that an extended marine stay during autumn and winter may have trade-off benefits other than somatic growth. Alternative benefits might be increased winter survival and decreased migratory costs of juvenile fish.     

Long‐term growth patterns in a pond‐dwelling population of crucian carp,Carassius carassius: environmental and density‐related factors

Abstract Scale samples from crucian carp, Carassius carassius (L.), collected over a 10‐year period from a population in an ornamental pond were used to examine patterns in growth as a function of environmental factors, including water temperatures. Back‐calculated standard lengths (SL) at age differed between year classes in most cases. Annual SL increments were related to temperature and age using a non‐linear growth model. Growth declined with increasing age, whereas annual SL increments increased with increasing water temperature. The best‐fit model was with the total number of summer days when air temperature exceeded 20 °C (using water temperature equivalents of air temperature). A growth model including water temperature, age, year class, relative condition and rainfall was a better fit than other models. Year‐class strength was positively correlated with water degree‐days, and year‐class strength negatively affected annual SL increments. The results indicate that within a strong year class of crucian carp, the growth of individual fish is reduced compared with weak year classes, suggesting that density negatively affects growth in ponds where resources are limited.     

Impact of spring upwelling variability off southern‐central Chile on common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) recruitment

Off southern‐central Chile, the impact of spring upwelling variability on common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) recruitment was examined by analyzing satellite and coastal station winds, satellite chlorophyll, and common sardine recruitment from a stock assessment model. In austral spring, the intensity of wind‐driven upwelling is related to sea surface temperature (SST) from the Niño 3.4 region, being weak during warm periods (El Niño) and strong during cold periods (La Niña). Interannual changes in both spring upwelling intensity and SST from the Niño 3.4 region are related to changes in remotely sensed chlorophyll over the continental shelf. In turn, year‐to‐year changes in coastal chlorophyll are tightly coupled to common sardine recruitment. We propose that, in the period 1991–2004, interannual changes in the intensity of spring upwelling affected the abundance and availability of planktonic food for common sardine, and consequently determined pre‐recruit survival and recruitment strength. However, the importance of density‐dependent factors on the reproductive dynamic cannot be neglected, as a negative association exists between spawning biomass and recruitment‐per‐spawning biomass. Coastal chlorophyll, upwelling intensity, and SST anomalies from the Niño 3.4 region could potentially help to predict common sardine recruitment scenarios under strong spring upwelling and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related anomalies.     

Numerical simulations of the seasonal circulation patterns and thermohaline structures of Prince William Sound,Alaska

A three‐dimensional, primitive‐equation ocean circulation model was applied to Prince William Sound, Alaska (3D‐PWS circulation model), under forcing of an ocean tide, freshwater runoff, surface heat flux, Alaska Coastal Current (ACC) throughflow (inflow/outflow), and daily (synoptic), spatially varying winds. The 3D structures and seasonal cycles of the circulation patterns, temperature, salinity (density), and mixed layer are examined. Freshwater runoff significantly contributes to the basin‐scale cyclonic circulation, which was not addressed in the previous simulations. Two typical circulation regimes, cyclonic and anticyclonic, characterize the complex flow patterns that depend on the intensities of the ACC thoughflow, freshwater discharge, and the synoptic wind. The spring (April–May) circulation pattern is characterized by a weak (maximum current 0.1 ms^?1) anticyclonic flow in the central Sound, while the autumn (September–October) circulation is dominated by a basin‐scale, cyclonic gyre (maximum current 0.2 ms^?1) due to the increase of the ACC throughflow and the maximum freshwater influence. During the summer, the circulation includes the cyclonic and anticyclonic gyres. During the winter, the circulation pattern is controlled by the basin‐scale cyclonic gyre and surface drift driven by the strong north‐easterly (south‐westward) wind forcing. The seasonal cycles of temperature (T) and salinity (S) vs. depth compare well with the observations. The simulated spring and autumn surface circulation patterns compare qualitatively well with the towed ADCP (acoustic Doppler current profilers) flow patterns and dynamic height patterns in the central Sound. An application of this model to zooplankton overwintering is discussed.     

Environmental modeling of occurrence of dolphinfish (Coryphaena spp.) in the Pacific Ocean off Mexico reveals seasonality in abundance,hot spots and migration patterns

Dolphinfish are little known migratory fish targeted by sport, artisanal and commercial fleets. In this study, we analyzed a 10 year database of incidental catches of the tuna purse seine fleet in the Pacific Ocean off Mexico with the aim to understand the environmental determinants of the spatial distribution and seasonal migration patterns of dolphinfish. We modeled the probability of occurrence of dolphinfish as a function of spatial (geographical coordinates), temporal (month/year) and environmental variables (sea surface temperature [SST], chlorophyll [CHL] and sea surface height [SSH], inferred from satellites) using logistic Generalized Additive Models. Dolphinfish preferred waters with SST values from 23 to 28°C, low (<0.2 mg/m³) CHL values, and primarily positive SSH values. Two dolphinfish hot spots were found in the study area: one in an oceanic zone (10°–15°N, 120°–125°W), which was more defined during spring, and one on the Pacific side of the Baja California Peninsula, which became important during summer. Models suggested that dolphinfish migrated through the study area following a “corridor” that ran from the Gulf of Tehuantepec along the Equatorial Upwelling zone to the oceanic hot spot zone, which in turn connected with the hot spot off the BCP. This “migratory corridor” went around the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool, which suggested that dolphinfish avoided this high temperature‐low production zone. Dolphinfish occupied zones close to certain oceanic features, such as eddies and thermal fronts. Results suggested that the primary cause of the biological hot spots was wind‐driven upwelling, because the hot spots became more important 3–4 months after the peak in upwelling activity.     

A model‐based meso‐zooplankton production index and its relation to the ocean survival of juvenile coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

The ocean survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) off the Pacific Northwest coast has been related to oceanographic conditions regulating lower trophic level production during their first year at sea. Coastal upwelling is recognized as the primary driver of seasonal plankton production but as a single index upwelling intensity has been an inconsistent predictor of coho salmon survival. Our goal was to develop a model of upwelling‐driven meso‐zooplankton production for the Oregon shelf ecosystem that was more immediately linked to the feeding conditions experienced by juvenile salmon than a purely physical index. The model consisted of a medium‐complexity plankton model linked to a simple one‐dimensional, cross‐shelf upwelling model. The plankton model described the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, small and large phytoplankton, meso‐zooplankton (copepods), and detritus. The model was run from 1996 to 2007 and evaluated on an interannual scale against time‐series observations of copepod biomass. The model’s ability to capture observed interannual variability improved substantially when the copepod community size distribution was taken into account each season. The meso‐zooplankton production index was significantly correlated with the ocean survival of hatchery coho salmon from the Oregon production area, although the coastal upwelling index that drove the model was not itself correlated with survival. Meso‐zooplankton production within the summer quarter (July–September) was more strongly correlated with coho survival than was meso‐zooplankton production in the spring quarter (April–June).     

Contrasted optimal environmental windows for both sardinella species in Senegalese waters

We investigate Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis recruitment success relative to the variability of oceanographic conditions in Senegalese waters using generalized additive models (GAM). Results show that recruitment of both species is marked by a strong intra‐annual (seasonal) variation with minimum and maximum in winter and summer, respectively. Their interannual variations are synchronous until 2006 (recruitment decreasing), while from 2007 there is no synchrony. The model developed shows that sardinella recruitment variability is closely related to the tested environmental variables in the study area. However, the key environmental variables influencing the recruitment success are different for both species: the Coastal Upwelling Index and the sea surface temperature for S. aurita and S. maderensis, respectively. We report that recruitment success of S. aurita and S. maderensis are associated with distinct ranges of sea surface temperature, upwelling intensity, wind‐induced turbulence, concentration of chlorophyll‐a and north Atlantic oscillation index. Considering food security and socio‐economic importance of both stocks, we recommend that consideration is given to the environmental variability in the small pelagic fish national management plans, particularly in the context of climate change.     

Causes of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment decline in the northern Sea of Japan: implications for stock management

Recruitment of the northern Japan Sea stock (JSS) of walleye pollock has been decreasing since around 1990. In this study, I analyzed the factors causing this decrease in recruitment by investigating the relationship between recruitment, spawning stock biomass (SSB) and environmental factors using a generalized additive model (GAM). GAM fit to the data showed the importance of SSB, sea surface temperature (SST), ocean current strength (Tsushima Warm Current) and wind intensity (Asian monsoon) in determining the recruitment. Of these, the relationship between SSB and recruitment was positive and not negatively density‐dependent. On the other hand, the recruitment was negatively related to SST and ocean current strength, and a dome‐shaped relationship was observed between wind intensity and recruitment. Since around 1990, the values of SST and ocean current strength have mostly been high and that of wind intensity mostly low. In addition, SSB has been decreasing since the late 1990s. It is likely that the recruitment decline of JSS after approximately 1990 has been caused by warm water temperature, strong Tsushima Warm Current and weak Asian monsoon, and that the recent decrease in SSB has amplified this recruitment decline. According to the model’s estimation, a recruitment recovery due to environmental improvement will be highly restricted as long as SSB remains at its current low level. Significant recovery of SSB is urgently needed for JSS.