生猪市场价格周期性波动的原因分析与缓解对策

养猪业的波动必然影响广大养殖企业和养猪户的生产积极性。本文就生猪市场价格周期的各阶段的特点、运行规律、引起生猪市场价格周期性波动的原因及未来变化趋势等问题进行了探讨。同时,也提出了一些缓解生猪市场价格周期性波动的对策。     

解析猪周期的发生、发展和演变

自1985年放开肉类市场以来,我国生猪市场开始呈现周期性波动。特别是近10多年来,生猪市场价格及生猪养殖效益周期性波动更为明显,已经历了三个完整的波动周期,目前正处在第四个周期的高价阶段。生猪生产的波动现象各国都有,但像我国这样的大幅振荡是少见的。生猪周期波动使生猪生产者、猪肉加工和流通企业面临着无法回避的风险,     

湖北省生猪生产的周期性特征及应对建议

本文总结了湖北省生猪生产的周期性特征:“猪周期”时长平均为4年、“猪周期”价格波动趋势一致、“猪周期”内价格下行时间长于上涨的时间、“猪周期”价格跌幅有规律;指出当前湖北省生猪生产处于第7轮周期中下段:生猪价格已进入下行通道、生猪产能持续稳步恢复和猪肉进口量大幅增加;并提出了加快推动生猪在建项目建成投产、合理规划生猪产业布局、建立生猪生产监测预警机制和推动产业差异化发展等应对生猪生产周期性特征的建议。     

美国生猪期货的历史沿革与现状

<正>一、美国生猪期货发展历程20世纪60年代以前,美国生猪养殖业以家庭散养为主。由于生猪养殖存在天然周期,生猪价格遂呈现出周期性波动,即"猪周期"。养猪企业因生猪价格波动的利润伸缩而承受巨大风险,饲料生产加工企业也因此受到较大影响,大幅增加了企业的运     

我国生猪价格周期性波动的规律及其成因分析

本文着重分析了自1996年以来我国生猪价格周期性波动的规律,对症下药,提出一些缓解和解决生猪价格周期性波动的建议和对策,以期帮助生猪养殖户、养殖企业,在最短的时间内跳出生猪价格周期性波动的怪圈,提高养猪的经济效益。     

基于产业链视角的生猪价格波动及其成因分析

近年来,我国生猪价格经历了从非洲猪瘟之后的价格高涨,到2021年中期下跌到谷底。生猪价格过山车式的波动,对生产者和消费者的利益都产生了冲击,其波动特点及成因受到各界高度关注。本文从生猪产业链视角,运用VAR模型对生猪价格影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明：生猪价格受自身价格变动的影响程度最大;产业链上游因素对生猪价格冲击具有周期性,且影响持续的时间最长;产业链下游因素对生猪价格影响保持高度一致且稳定;产业链外部因素对生猪价格影响在逐渐加大;“猪周期”的存在加剧了生猪产业链上价格的波动。因此,应保证产业链上下游各方价格稳定,对生猪产能进行调控,并且重视产业链外部因素,建立风险规避机制。     

创新融资合作模式降低企业周期风险——浅述农牧养殖企业在生猪周期低谷获得融资的路径探索

正融资难大背景在生猪养殖周期下长期存在于中国农牧业行业,我国生猪养殖产业仍然处于初级阶段,表现出生产者生产规模小,分布零散,生产计划性差,管理粗放,小规模从业者普遍文化素养不高,市场敏感性差等一系列特点,由于整个产业的生产规模变动的无规律性,表现在市场端就是生猪价格周期性波动的不稳定性,生猪养殖行业价格周期性波动给农牧业的健康生产及良性发展带来了极大地挑战,在生猪价格高峰     

我国新一轮生猪周期波动分析

自1985年放开肉类市场以来，我国生猪市场开始呈现周期性波动。特别是近10多年来，生猪市场价格及生猪养殖效益周期性波动更为明显，已经历了三个完事的波动周期，目前处在第四个周期的高价阶段，生猪生产的波动现象各国都有，但像我国这样的大幅振荡是少见的。生猪周期波动使生猪生产者、猪肉加工和流通企业面临着无法回避的风险，严重制约了生猪产业发展。最近一个期是从2006年下半年开始的，出现了许多新的特点，新一轮的猪价上扬是一把“双刃剑”，既刺激农户养殖积极性和增加收入，为后市提供充足猪源、稳定猪肉价格带来福音，又有可能产生过度刺激，导致盲目发展，应对新一轮生猪周期性波动，建议加强政策扶持，强化防疫体系，完善市场流通基础设施和信息服务体系、失言政策性保险制度，鼓励规模化饲养方式等，形成发展现代养猪业新机制。[编者按]     

生猪期货上市对生猪养殖企业及猪肉加工企业的意义

我国生猪价格的大幅度、周期性波动给整个生猪产业链带来了巨大的影响。作为生猪市场风险对冲工具,生猪期货合约具有平抑价格、规避风险的功能,可以帮助生猪生产者通过期货交易行情及时掌握未来的生猪价格走势,合理调整养殖规模和饲养周期,进而降低市场波动带来的风险。同时也可以帮助猪肉加工企业减轻由于生猪价格波动带来的成本压力。本文从期货的概念和原理入手,兼顾企业经营模式分析,举例说明了生猪养殖企业和猪肉加工企业如何利用期货的套期保值功能来实现规避价格风险的方法。     

生猪市场价格周期性波动的原因分析与缓解对策

国家自1985年取消生猪派购、放开肉类市场、实行多渠道经营以后,我国生猪市场价格就始终处于周期性波动状态。这种生猪价格的大起大落导致广大生猪饲养者在不同时期的经济效益跌宕起伏。1我国生猪市场价格周期的一般规律1.1年度内规律年度内生猪价格一般呈两头高、中间低的趋势     

商会自治的基石——商会自治规范研究

在现代法律秩序中,商会自治规范是制定法的基础和必要的补充,甚至在某些方面替代了制定法;商会自治规范主要包括商会组织规范、行为规范、惩罚规范以及争端解决规范等;其效力仅及于其内部成员;商会自治规范和制定法之间存在冲突,但也存在整合的基础。     

癸氧喹酯干混悬剂含量测定的改进

采用高效液相色谱法测定癸氧喹酯干混悬剂的含量,在2-250μg/mL范围内,峰面积的常用对数与进样量浓度的常用对数呈良好的线性关系,R^2=1(n=5),平均回收率为99.24%~99.51%,RSD在0.05%~0.28%。此方法分析时间短,样品前处理简便、定量结果准确,重现性好,结果满意,为其质量控制提供了依据。     

猪毛色遗传的研究进展

本文概述了猪的毛色类型、猪的毛色遗传模式,着重综述了猪毛色基因分子基础的研究进展,指出存在问题并就未来发展方向做了思考。     

Comparison of 2 methods of centesis of the bursa of the biceps brachii tendon of horses

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Centesis of the bicipital bursa using an 8.9 cm long spinal needle has been reported but the alternative of employing a 3.8 cm long hypodermic needle requires validation. OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy of 2 different methods of centesis of the bicipital bursa and to evaluate the usefulness of ultrasonographic imaging to determine the location of solution administered when centesis of the bursa is attempted. METHODS: For Trial 1, 6 clinicians, who had no previous experience of centesis of the bicipital bursa, attempted to inject a solution composed of an aqueous radiopaque contrast medium and physiological saline solution (PSS) into the bicipital bursae of 2/12 horses using the previously described distal approach to inject one bursa and a proximal approach to inject the contralateral bursa. The bicipital tendon and bursa were examined ultrasonographically before and after injection; and both shoulders were examined radiographically to identify the location of the medium. In Trial 2, another 6 clinicians, also with no previous experience of centesis, repeated Trial 1, using 6 horses, but the radiopaque contrast medium was mixed with air instead of PSS. RESULTS: Accuracy of centesis using the proximal approach was 39% and that of the distal approach 28%. Ultrasonographic examination of the shoulder allowed the location of solution and air to be accurately predicted in all 12 shoulders examined. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians who have had no previous experience performing centesis of the bicipital bursa are unlikely to be successful in centesis using either approach. Radiographic examination after injecting a radiopaque contrast medium may be necessary to assess the success of centesis especially if bursal fluid is not obtained during centesis. Injecting air along with the radiopaque contrast medium provides more accurate ultrasonographic confirmation of centesis and better radiographic definition than does injection without air.     

不同样本商品蜂蜜中硒含量的测定

用硝酸和高氯酸消化蜂蜜,使硒游离出来,在微酸性环境下,硒和2,3-二氨基萘(DAN)生成有较强荧光的物质,用环己烷萃取,在激发波长378nm,荧光波长518nm处测定其荧光强度。蜂蜜中硒含量范围:0.10～0.82μg/g。表明:蜂蜜应视为天然富硒营养品。     

乳酸杆菌益生作用机制的研究进展

乳酸杆菌作为益生菌广泛用于人和动物。本文综述了乳酸杆菌改善宿主健康的机制。乳酸杆菌可通过产生抗菌物质如乳酸、过氧化氢、细菌素,或者通过竞争营养或肠道黏附位点来抑制致病菌;通过诱导黏附素的分泌或阻止细胞凋亡而增强肠道的屏障功能,从而保护肠道。文章重点讨论了乳酸杆菌表面成分（表面蛋白、脂磷壁酸和肽聚糖）与肠道受体（Ｃ型凝集素受体、Ｔｏｌｌ样受体和 Ｎｏｄ样受体）,阐述了他们结合后启动免疫调节信号,调控肠道免疫功能以发挥改善健康作用的机制。     

Effects of size of ingestively masticated fragments of plant tissues on kinetics of digestion of NDF

Ingestively masticated fragments were collected and sized via sieving. Different sizes of esophageal masticate and ruminal digesta fragments, and ground fragments of larger masticated pieces were incubated in vitro, and undigested NDF remaining at intervals of up to 168 h of incubation was determined. The ruminal age-dependent time delay (tau) for onset of digestion of NDF was positively correlated (P < 0.004) with the mean sieve aperture estimated to retain 50% of the fragments between successive sieve apertures (MRA). Degradation rate of potentially degradable NDF (PDF) and level of indigestible NDF were not related (P > 0.10) to MRA of masticated and ground fragments. Estimates of tau were positively related to MRA, with slopes of bermudagrass < corn silage < ruminal fragments of corn silage. It was concluded that fragment size-, and consequently, ruminal age-dependent onset of PDF degradation of a mixture of different fragment sizes results in an age-dependent rate of degradation of the more rapidly degrading of two subentities of PDF. Models are proposed that assume a tau before onset of simultaneous degradation of PDF from two pools characterized as having gamma-modeled age-dependency and age-constant rates. The ruminal age-dependent pool seems to be associated with the faster-degrading pool, and its rate parameter increases with range in MRA in the population of fragments. Conceptually, the ruminal age-dependent rate parameter for PDF degradation seems to represent a composite of several effects: 1) effects of the size-dependent tau; 2) range in MRA of the population of ingestively masticated fragments; and 3) subentities of PDF that degrade via more rapid age-dependent rates compared with subentities of PDF that degrade via age-constant rates. The estimated fractional rates of ruminative comminution of ingestively masticated fragments (0.060 to 0.075/h) were of a magnitude similar to the mean fractional rates of PDF digestion (0.030 to 0.085/h), which implies that ruminative comminution may be first-limiting to fractional rate of PDF digestion. The in vivo roles of ingestive and ruminative mastication of fragments on PDF degradation must be considered in any kinetic system for estimating PDF digestion in the rumen. These results and others in the literature suggest that the rate of surface area exposure rather than intrinsic chemical attributes of PDF may be first-limiting to degradation rate of PDF in vivo.     

Mechanism of Action of Probiotic Function of Lactobacilli

乳酸杆菌作为益生菌广泛用于人和动物.本文综述了乳酸杆菌改善宿主健康的机制.乳酸杆菌可通过产生抗菌物质如乳酸、过氧化氢、细菌素,或者通过竞争营养或肠道黏附位点来抑制致病菌;通过诱导黏附素的分泌或阻止细胞凋亡而增强肠道的屏障功能,从而保护肠道.文章重点讨论了乳酸杆菌表面成分(表面蛋白、脂磷壁酸和肽聚糖)与肠道受体(C型凝集素受体、Toll样受体和Nod样受体),阐述了他们结合后启动免疫调节信号,调控肠道免疫功能以发挥改善健康作用的机制.     

Evaluation of serum concentrations of biomarkers of skeletal metabolism and results of radiography as indicators of severity of osteochondrosis in foals

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether serum concentrations of biomarkers of skeletal metabolism can, in conjunction with radiographic evaluation, indicate severity of osteochondrosis in developing horses. ANIMALS: 43 Dutch Warmblood foals with varying severity of osteochondrosis. PROCEDURE: 24 foals were monitored for 5 months and 19 foals were monitored for 11 months. Monthly radiographs of femoropatellar-femorotibial and tibio-tarsal joints were graded for osteochondral abnormalities. Serial blood samples were assayed for 8 cartilage and bone biomarkers. At the end of the monitoring period, foals were examined for macroscopic osteochondrosis lesions. RESULTS: Temporal relationships were evident between certain serum biomarkers and osteochondrosis severity in foals during their first year. Biomarkers of collagen degradation (collagenase-generated neoepitopes of type-II collagen fragments, type-I and -II collagen fragments [COL2-3/4C(short)], and cross-linked telopeptide fragments of type-I collagen) and bone mineralization (osteocalcin) were positive indicators of osteochondrosis severity at 5 months of age. In foals with lesions at 11 months of age, osteochondrosis severity correlated negatively with COL2-3/4C(short) and osteocalcin and positively with C-propeptide of type-II procollagen (CPII), a collagen synthesis marker. Radiographic grading of osteochondrosis lesions significantly correlated with macroscopic osteochondrosis severity score at both ages and was strongest when combined with osteocalcin at 5 months and CPII at 11 months. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The ability of serum biomarkers to indicate osteochondrosis severity appears to depend on stage of disease and is strengthened with radiography. In older foals with more permanent lesions, osteochondrosis severity is significantly related to biomarker concentrations of decreased bone formation and increased cartilage synthesis.