Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds

We present the first continent-wide analysis of the population trends of European breeding birds to show that populations of Afro-Palearctic migrant birds have shown a pattern of sustained, often severe, decline. The mean trend of inter-continental migrants was significantly negative between 1970 and 1990 and non-significantly so between 1990 and 2000. Mean population trends were positively correlated between periods, suggesting little change in the trajectory of most migrant species’ populations over this 30-year period. In both periods, trends of inter-continental migrants were significantly more negative than those of short-distance migrants or residents. This negative trend appeared to be largely, although not entirely, due to declines in species wintering in dry, open habitats in Africa. Analyses of trends of 30 closely related pairs of species, one a long-distance migrant and the other not, indicated significantly more negative trends in the former, irrespective of breeding habitat. Conservation action to address these declines is required under the Convention on Migratory Species and the Pan-European Biological and Landscape Diversity Strategy, to which most European countries are signatories and which aim, respectively, to conserve migratory species and to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010. Our results indicate that more conservation action may be required outside Europe to achieve these targets. Further research is needed to assess whether the declines are caused by factors operating on the birds’ wintering grounds, breeding grounds or on migration routes, and to identify ways to reverse them.     

Population trends of birds across the iron curtain: Brain matters

One approach to assess human impact on species’ population dynamics is to correlate ecological traits of species with their long-term population trends. Yet, few studies investigated population trends in multiple regions that differ in human impact to reveal which traits explain population trends over larger geographic areas and which only regionally. We examined the relationship between various species traits and long-term population trends of 57 common passerine bird species from 1991 to 2007 in three adjacent regions in central Europe that experienced differences in socioeconomic history: North-Western Germany, Eastern Germany and the Czech Republic. We tested effects of habitat, dietary and climatic niche, migratory strategy and cognitive ability, measured as relative brain size. We predicted that traits reflecting socioeconomic and land-use change had stronger effects in former communist countries than in North-Western Germany due to marked changes in these countries after 1990. We found that climatic niche and migratory strategy affected bird abundances similarly in all regions suggesting their influence is invariant across central Europe. In contrast, brain size showed regionally varying effects. The effects were negligible in North-Western Germany, slightly positive in Eastern Germany and strongly positive in the Czech Republic. Increases of species with large brains suggest that species with good cognitive abilities might have been better able to adapt to rapid socioeconomic change and make use of novel opportunities after the end of communism. Regional differences in population trends among species thus appear to be driven by an interaction between cognitive abilities and socioeconomic change.     

Inferring extinction from biological records: Were we too quick to write off Miss Waldron’s Red Colobus Monkey (Piliocolobus badius waldronae)?

We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval where experts are increasingly required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species’ range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. For many species in dense habitats, it may be very difficult to establish reliable and sensitive survey and monitoring techniques, which are able to warn of potentially catastrophic population declines. Unfortunately many other species are only known through a few ‘chance’ sightings or a handful of museum specimens and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. In 2000 Miss Waldron’s Red Colobus, Piliocolobus badius waldronae, was reported as extinct, but since then (in 2001) a single specimen has been collected. Four probabilistic methods were used to infer extinction based on a record of sightings of the subspecies. Based on the date when the extinction statement of Miss Waldron’s Red Colobus was made, all four methods returned probability values >0.05, suggesting that the subspecies is extant, but is extremely rare. If we cannot successfully monitor populations of critically endangered taxa, it becomes almost impossible to predict their extinction with any certainty and we can expect increasing numbers of false alarms in future years, which may undermine the potential for conservation action and, more worryingly, public support for conservation.     

Rarity and decline in bumblebees - A test of causes and correlates in the Irish fauna

Bees are believed to be in decline across many of the world’s ecosystems. Recent studies on British bumblebees proposed alternative theories to explain declines. One study suggested that greater dietary specialization among the rarer bumblebee species makes them more susceptible to decline. A second study disputed this theory and found that declines in British bumblebees were correlated with the size of species’ European ranges, leading to the suggestion that climate and habitat specialization may be better indicators of the risk of decline. Here we use a new and independent dataset based on Irish bumblebees to test the generality of these theories. We found that most of the same bumblebee species are declining across the British Isles, but that, within Ireland, a simple food-plant specialization model is inadequate to explain these declines. Furthermore, we found no evidence of a relationship between declines in Irish bumblebees and the size of species’ European ranges. However, we demonstrate that the late emerging species have declined in Ireland (and in Britain), and that these species show a statistically significant westward shift to the extremity of their range, probably as a result of changing land use. Irish data support the finding that rare and declining bumblebees are later nesting species, associated with open grassy habitats. We suggest that the widespread replacement of hay with silage in the agricultural landscape, which results in earlier and more frequent mowing and a reduction in late summer wildflowers, has played a major role in bumblebee declines.     

The ecology of extinction: population fluctuation and decline in amphibians

Even among widespread species with high reproductive potentials and significant dispersal abilities, the probability of extinctions should be correlated both with population size variance and with the extent of population isolation. To address how variation in demographic characteristics and habitat requirements may reflect on the comparative risk of species decline, I examined 617 time series of population census data derived from 89 amphibian species using the normalized estimate of the realized rate of increase, ΔN, and its variance. Amphibians are demonstrably in general decline and exhibit a great range of dispersal abilities, demographic characteristics, and population sizes. I compared species according to life-history characteristics and habitat use. Among the populations examined, census declines outnumbered increases yet the average magnitudes for both declines and increases were not demonstrably different, substantiating findings of amphibian decline. This gives no support for the idea that amphibian population sizes are dictated by regimes featuring relatively rare years of high recruitment offset by intervening years of gradual decline such that declines may outnumber increases without negative effect. For any given population size, those populations living in large streams or in ponds had significantly higher variance than did populations of completely terrestrial or other stream-dwelling amphibians. This could not be related to life-history complexity as all the stream-breeding species examined have larvae and all of the wholly terrestrial species have direct development without a larval stage. Variance in ΔN was highest amongst the smallest populations in each comparison group. Estimated local extinction rates averaged 3.1% among pond-breeding frogs, 2.2% for pond-breeding salamanders, and negligible for both stream-breeding and terrestrial direct-developing species. Recoveries slightly exceeded extinctions among European pond-breeding frogs but not among North American pond-breeding frogs. Less common species had greater negative disparities between extinctions and recoveries. Species with highly fluctuating populations and high frequencies of local extinctions living in changeable environments, such pond- and torrent-breeding amphibians, may be especially susceptible to curtailment of dispersal and restriction of habitat.     

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species’ survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species’ annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population’s capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population’s response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.     

Major declines in the abundance of vultures and other scavenging raptors in and around the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya

Vulture population declines have been noted in West and Southern Africa, but have not been assessed in East Africa. Roadside transects conducted in 1976 and 1988 were compared with surveys done from 2003–2005 in and around Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Staggering declines in abundance were found for seven of eight scavenging raptors surveyed. No Egyptian vultures were seen during recent transects. We compared trends between the ungulate migration and non-migration season among three land use types (reserve, buffer, and grazed) and among the species surveyed to establish the causes of declines in scavenging raptors. Large declines during the ungulate migratory period suggest that most scavenging raptor species are declining well beyond the area of study. For all species, except Hooded vultures, substantial declines outside of the reserve indicate an important role of land use change in causing observed declines. In addition, significant declines of populations of Gyps species in the reserve itself, especially during the migration season, provide evidence that human activities occurring in other parts of the species’ range such as poisoning of carcasses may be causing their decline. Declines found in this study suggest that at a minimum African white-backed, Rüppell’s, and Hooded vultures should be relisted as Vulnerable. Management actions that limit land use change around the reserve combined with a countrywide ban on carbamate pesticides will be important for conserving keystone members of the scavenging guild. Future research should further examine possible causes of these declines and quantify the effect of reduced scavenging raptor abundance on scavenging efficiency.     

Modelling the effect of El Niño on the persistence of small populations: The Galápagos penguin as a case study

Small populations are vulnerable to long-term declines, even where short-term censuses indicate increasing trends in numbers. Census data for the Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) collected between 1970 and 2004 provide evidence that despite year-to-year population increases detected in most of the annual censuses, the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were followed by population declines of more than 60% from which the species has yet to recover. Such large declines raise concerns about the future viability of the species because the frequency and severity of El Niño events are predicted to increase. We used the simulation software VORTEX to evaluate the potential effects of El Niño on the risk of extinction of the Galápagos penguin population and its four constituent subpopulations. Weak and strong El Niño events were treated as catastrophes, with varying frequencies, which simulated past, current and future effects on the penguin population. The “Current El Niño” scenario, based on the frequency of El Niño events recorded in the Galápagos between 1965 and 2004, indicated an approximately 30% probability of extinction within the next 100 years for the penguin population. More ominously, the species may be at a greater risk if the frequency of strong El Niño episodes increases only marginally. A probability of extinction greater than 80% was predicted when the current frequency (5%) of strong El Niño events was doubled (to 10%). The probabilities of extinctions were higher for each subpopulation treated individually, ranging from 34% for Isabela and Fernandina, 64% for Bartolomé-Santiago to 78% for the smallest subpopulation on Floreana. Sensitivity analyses identified survival of penguins during El Niño events and sex ratio as influential parameters. The estimates of extinction risk may be conservative as other threats associated with increased human activities on the islands may further compromise species persistence.     

Minimum viable population and conservation status of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi, a species threatened by habitat loss and restricted geographical distribution. Objectives were to suggest quasi-extinction thresholds, estimate minimum areas of suitable habitat (MASH) and MVPs, and compare results with the species’ current status. The computer package VORTEX was used. The model predicted sizes of 200 animals to achieve demographic stability, but buffering declines in genetic variability required populations of 2000 animals. Estimated MASHs were approximately 250 and 2500 ha for demographic and genetic stability, respectively. Mortality rate and mean litter size were the most sensitive parameters to changes in model assumptions. The protection of known populations and the search for extant populations are the first steps in conservation. T. eliasi's issue could help protecting the coastal shrubland ecosystem of Rio de Janeiro state. Observing IUCN's criteria for listing threatened species, it is suggested that T. eliasi should be ranked as vulnerable in red lists.     

The impact of introduced predators, light-induced mortality of fledglings and poaching on the dynamics of the Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) population from the Azores, northeastern subtropical Atlantic

Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) is a procellariiform seabird which breeds in the Mediterranean and the north-eastern subtropical Atlantic, and which is considered “Vulnerable” in Europe due to recent declines at some localities. In the Azores archipelago (Atlantic), the introduction of mammalian predators by man has led to petrels being extirpated from the main islands, except for Cory’s shearwater. Currently, the Azorean population of Cory’s shearwaters represents 65% of the species’ world population. However, its dynamics remains unknown, although: (1) numbers might have declined by 43% between 1996 and 2001, (2) on the main islands, the young suffer mortality from introduced mammals, poachers, and urban lights upon fledging, and (3) at sea, the level of fishery mortality remains unknown.To fill this gap, we conducted a 7-year demographic survey on a mammal-free islet in the Azores to determine adult survival rate using capture-mark-recapture of the breeders and to estimate fecundity. We also assessed urban mortality using the data from the rescue campaigns annually conducted in the archipelago. Urban mortality concerned about 6% of fledglings, but its importance greatly varied among islands. When rescue campaigns occur, the rate might drop below 0.5%. Overall, our simulations concerning the next 100 years do not allow excluding a decrease in Cory’s shearwater numbers in the Azores without rescue campaigns (by 87% under the least favourable scenario). Rescue campaigns should only slow down the decline unless, simultaneously, lower competition for nests compared to Vila islet allows adults to breed almost every year on the main islands and juvenile survival exceeds a threshold value. Since adult survival rate was high (>0.93), an eventual decline of the Azorean population of Cory’s shearwaters would probably not result from fishery mortality of adults, but rather from poor fledgling productivity and perhaps also from low survival during the first year at sea.     

Once-yearly sampling for the detection of trends in biodiversity: The case of Willow Slough, California

The butterfly fauna at Willow Slough, Yolo County, California has been censused for 32 years as part of a participatory citizen-science project, the Fourth of July Butterfly Count. While the utility of a once-a-year census as a monitoring tool is potentially compromised by lack of standardization in counting protocols and variation in observer skill, at Willow Slough these issues have been minimized.We examined the Willow Slough count data for trends in both faunal diversity and the probability of presence of individual species. During the study, the number of species observed at a visit declined by 39%. Regressions of per-visit species counts against time did not detect a statistically significant decline until year 24. In contrast, Fisher’s α, a statistic designed to reduce sample-size bias, detected the decline as early as year 13. Twelve of the 24 species analyzed showed significant declines in probability of occurrence; a further nine exhibited negative but non-significant trends. Butterflies that overwinter as eggs or larvae were more likely to decline than those that overwinter as pupae or adults. Many species in decline at Willow Slough have also been observed less frequently at nearby sites which are monitored year-round, supporting the value of once-a-year monitoring. Although correlations with climatic data have been identified, they are too weak to account for the observed faunal decline. We suspect broader patterns of land use and habitat continuity are implicated in butterfly declines across the region.We conclude that once-a-year sampling, if properly and rigorously done, is in fact useful as a monitoring tool for butterfly faunas, and that Fisher’s α is well suited to early detection of trends in repeated diversity sampling.     

Rapid declines of common, widespread British moths provide evidence of an insect biodiversity crisis

A fundamental problem in estimating biodiversity loss is that very little quantitative data are available for insects, which comprise more than two-thirds of terrestrial species. We present national population trends for a species-rich and ecologically diverse insect group: widespread and common macro-moths in Britain. Two-thirds of the 337 species studied have declined over the 35 yr study and 21% (71) of the species declined >30% 10 yr⁻¹. If IUCN (World Conservation Union) criteria are applied at the national scale, these 71 species would be regarded as threatened. The declines are at least as great as those recently reported for British butterflies and exceed those of British birds and vascular plants. These results have important and worrying implications for species such as insectivorous birds and bats, and suggests as-yet undetected declines may be widespread among temperate-zone insects.     

Scale-dependent homogenization: Changes in breeding bird diversity in the Netherlands over a 25-year period

Changes in breeding bird diversity in the Netherlands between 1973-1977 and 1998-2000 were evaluated by testing three hypotheses related to the loss of biodiversity: (1) species diversity is declining, (2) biotic homogenization is increasing and (3) rare species are declining more severely than abundant species. Using data collected for two successive national breeding bird atlases, changes in diversity were assessed at different spatial scales (local, regional and national) and among species characteristic for different landscapes (farmland, woodland, heathland, wetland, coastal habitats and urban habitats). National species richness, diversity and equitability had increased between the two atlas periods, with more species increasing than decreasing in range and abundance. Most species in the large groups of woodland and wetland birds showed positive trends, whereas most in the smaller groups of heathland, reed-breeding and meadow birds showed negative trends. However, findings varied between regions and localities. Increases in species richness occurred mainly in regions in the low-lying, western part of the country which were previously relatively poor in species. By contrast, species richness decreased in some previously species-rich regions in the eastern part of the country. This has resulted in a homogenization of breeding bird communities between regions. We advocate the conservation and restoration of regional identity as a priority for landscape planning in the Netherlands. We did not find a clear relation between species abundance and trends, although both rare and very abundant species tended to decrease on average.     

Regional population viability of grassland songbirds: Effects of agricultural management

Although population declines of grassland songbirds in North America and Europe are well-documented, the effect of local processes on regional population persistence is unclear. To assess population viability of grassland songbirds at a regional scale (∼150,000 ha), we quantified Savannah Sparrow Passerculus sandwichensis and Bobolink Dolichonyx oryzivorus annual productivity, adult apparent survival, habitat selection, and density in the four most (regionally) common grassland treatments. We applied these data to a female-based, stochastic, pre-breeding population model to examine whether current grassland management practices can sustain viable populations of breeding songbirds. Additionally, we evaluated six conservation strategies to determine which would most effectively increase population trends. Given baseline conditions, over 10 years, simulations showed a slightly declining or stable Savannah Sparrow population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.99; 95% CI = 1.00-0.989) and severely declining Bobolink population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.753-0.747). Savannah Sparrow populations were sensitive to increases in all demographic parameters, particularly adult survival. However for Bobolinks, increasing adult apparent survival, juvenile apparent survival, or preference by changing habitat selection cues for late-hayed fields (highest quality) only slightly decreased the rate of decline. For both species, increasing the amount of high-quality habitat (late- and middle-hayed) marginally slowed population declines; increasing the amount of low-quality habitat (early-hayed and grazed) marginally increased population declines. Both species were most sensitive to low productivity and survival on early-hayed fields, despite the fact that this habitat comprised only 18% of the landscape. Management plans for all agricultural regions should increase quality on both low- and high-quality fields by balancing habitat needs, nesting phenology, and species’ response to management.     

Applying IUCN criteria to invertebrates: How red is the Red List of European butterflies?

The IUCN is the leading authority on assessing species’ extinction risks worldwide and introduced the use of quantitative criteria for the compilation of Red Lists of threatened species. Recently, we assessed the threat status of the 483 European butterfly species, using semi-quantitative data on changes in distribution and in population sizes provided by national butterfly experts. We corrected distribution trends for the observation that coarse-scale grid cells underestimate actual population trends by 35%. To account for uncertainty, we included a 5% error margin on the distribution and population trends provided. The new Red List of European butterflies determined one species as Regionally Extinct, 37 species as threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable) and a further 44 as Near Threatened. The use of semi-quantitative data on distribution and population trends permitted us to use IUCN criteria to compile a scientifically underpinned Red List of butterflies in Europe. However, a comparison of detailed monitoring data for some grassland species showed that coarse-scale grid cell data and population trends strongly underestimate extinction risks, and the list should be taken as a conservative estimate of threat. Finally, combining the new Red List status with the data provided by the national butterfly experts, allowed us to determine simple criteria to delineate conservation priorities for butterflies in Europe, so called SPecies of European conservation Concern (SPEC’s). Using European butterflies, our approach illustrated how Red Listing can be performed when data are incomplete for some IUCN criteria or vary strongly among countries.     

Climate warming and the rainforest birds of the Australian Wet Tropics: Using abundance data as a sensitive predictor of change in total population size

Global average surface temperatures have increased rapidly over the last 100 years and there is accumulating evidence that climate change is already causing shifts in species’ distributions. We use extensive abundance data and expected range shifts across altitudinal gradients to predict changes in total population size of rainforest birds of Australian tropical rainforests in response to climate warming. According to our most conservative model scenario, 74% of rainforest birds of north-eastern Australia are predicted to become threatened (including 26 critically endangered species) as a result of projected mid-range warming expected within the next 100 years. Extinction risk varies according to where along the altitudinal gradient a species is currently most abundant. Upland birds are most affected and are likely to be immediately threatened by even small increases in temperature. In contrast, there is a capacity for the population size of lowland species to increase, at least in the short term. We conclude that abundance data collected across climatic gradients will be fundamental to gaining an understanding of population size change associated with climate warming.     

From both sides: Dire demographic consequences of carnivorous mice and longlining for the Critically Endangered Tristan albatrosses on Gough Island

The IUCN recently uplisted the Tristan albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) to Critically Endangered. Here we present new data indicating negative population trends on Gough Island arising from low adult survival (∼91%, ascribed to accidental mortality on fishing gear) and low breeding success (averaging 32%, due to mouse predation). Fledgling production from 1979 to 2007 and numbers of incubating adults from 1956 to 2007 have both decreased by ∼1% p.a. Consecutive annual counts of incubating adults and a population model permit the first reliable estimates of the Tristan albatross population, presently 5400 breeding adults and 11,300 birds in all age- and stage-classes. Population models explore scenarios of likely demographic trends using combinations of hypothetical best-case estimates vs. observed estimates for two key parameters: adult survival and breeding success. These scenarios highlight the relative benefits to the species of eradicating mice or mitigating bycatch. The model scenario using observed estimates predicts annual growth rate at −2.85%. Adult survival rates have probably decreased in recent years, concomitant with increased longline fishing effort, which might explain the discrepancy between counts and modelled trends. Negative trends cannot be reversed by improving breeding success alone, and adult survival must exceed an improbable 97% to balance the current chick production. A worst-case scenario including a fixed number of adult deaths annually predicted a catastrophic 4.2% p.a. decrease and extinction in ∼30 years. Population growth was most sensitive to adult survival, but even using an adult survival estimate without fishery mortality, current breeding success is insufficient to maintain the population. These findings do not support the ‘compensatory mitigation of bycatch’ model (offsetting bycatch impacts by eradicating invasive species), and the impacts of both fishery mortality and mouse predation must be addressed to improve the conservation status of the Critically Endangered Tristan albatross.     

Wildfowl population trends in Mexico, 1961-2000: a basis for conservation planning

We analysed population trends of 24 wildfowl species in Mexico. Wildfowl numbers peaked during the early 1980s; lowest counts were recorded in 1997. Total wildfowl numbers (all species combined) and duck numbers (duck species combined) showed significant short-term (1981-2000) declines, while geese (goose species combined) showed a significant long-term (1961-2000) increase. Six wildfowl species suffered significant long-term declines, while four showed increases. During 1981-2000, 11 species declined, but none had significant increases. Redhead (Aythya americana), Mexican duck (Anas diazi), northern pintail (A. acuta) and black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) should be given high conservation priority because of the high proportions of their North American populations in Mexico. Declining numbers of the later two species should trigger further investigation into the possibility of assigning them legal protection status. Other species with apparent declines in numbers should also be more closely monitored. For setting hunting limits in the country, the population status of each species should be accounted for, as well as the condition of breeding populations the previous spring. Other species with poor data or combined counts should be targeted for basic population studies. We suggest that the mid-winter counts be expanded to cover non-surveyed areas and conducted every year to more precisely detect wildfowl population change. Integrated to a site-selection analysis, the information presented here can provide the basis for a wildfowl conservation strategy in Mexico.     

Monitoring brown frogs Rana arvalis and Rana temporaria in 120 south Swedish ponds 1989-2005. Mixed trends in different habitats

The two brown frogs Rana arvalis and Rana temporaria were monitored at 57 localities (that contained a total of 120 ponds) for up to 17 years each during the years 1989-2005. The analysis summarized below only accounts for trends within sites actually usable for frogs during the analysis period, large scale habitat losses are thus not accounted for. R. arvalis populations tended to increase over the study period. R. temporaria populations displayed no significant change. However, both species displayed significant fluctuations from year to year. These were not correlated between the two species. Localities with permanent ponds tended to display more positive population trends than localities with temporary ponds and ponds in pastures tended to display more positive trends than those in forests. For ponds in cropped fields, where only R. temporaria were found, the trend were also generally negative. Thus, long-term trends suggest that neither species is in decline. Nevertheless, the population trends observed in more exploited habitats are less positive than those in relatively unexploited habitats. We conclude frog populations in agricultural habitats should be more carefully studied to identify the factors behind the decline. The negative trend in temporary ponds are cause for a closer analysis of the effects of weather factors on frog population dynamics.     

Population viability, ecological processes and biodiversity: Valuing sites for reserve selection

No-take reserves constitute one tool to improve conservation of marine ecosystems, yet criteria for their placement, size, and arrangement remain uncertain. Representation of biodiversity is necessary in reserve planning, but will ultimately fail for conservation unless factors affecting species’ persistence are also incorporated. This study presents an empirical example of the divergent relationships among multiple metrics used to quantify a site’s conservation value, including those that address representation (habitat type, species richness, species diversity), and others that address ecological processes and viability (density and reproductive capacity of a keystone species, in this case, the black chiton, Katharina tunicata). We characterized 10 rocky intertidal sites across two habitats in Barkley Sound, British Columbia, Canada, according to these site metrics. High-richness and high-production sites for K. tunicata were present in both habitat types, but high richness and high-production sites did not overlap. Across sites, species richness ranged from 29 to 46, and adult K. tunicata varied from 6 to 22 individuals m⁻². Adult density was negatively correlated with species richness, a pattern that likely occurs due to post-recruitment growth and survival because no correlation was evident with non-reproductive juveniles. Sites with high adult density also contributed disproportionately greater potential reproductive output (PRO), defined by total gonad mass. PRO varied by a factor of five across sites and was also negatively correlated with species richness. Compromise or relative weighting would be necessary to select valuable sites for conservation because of inherent contradictions among some reserve selection criteria. We suspect that this inconsistency among site metrics will occur more generally in other ecosystems and emphasize the importance of population viability of strongly interacting species.