Identifying priority areas for bioclimatic representation under climate change: a case study for Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Biological reserves are established to protect natural resources and represent the diversity of environments found within a region. Unfortunately, many systems of protected areas do not proportionally capture the range of environmental conditions occupied by species and communities. Combinations of habitat loss and climate change may exacerbate these representational biases, and result in future distributions of environmental conditions that bare little resemblance to historic patterns. New protected areas need to be established to correct existing biases, and create conservation networks that remain representative despite climate change, habitat loss, and changes in species distributions. We demonstrate a new method to identify and prioritize habitat based on its value for improving bioclimatic representation. We assessed representation provided by existing protected areas for 301 Proteaceae species under historic and projected 2050 climate across the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa. The existing reserve system has relatively modest biases with respect to current species distributions and climate. However, if the system is not supplemented, protected areas in 2050 will capture an increasingly skewed sample of climatic conditions occupied by Proteaceae. These biases can be repaired through the systematic establishment of new protected areas, and many of the most valuable areas coincide with high priority ecosystem components and irreplaceable elements identified in the Cape Action for People and the Environmental conservation plan. Protecting these areas achieves nearly the best possible improvement in climatic representation while also meeting biodiversity representation goals.     

Changes in local species richness of farmland birds in relation to land-use changes and landscape structure

It has been suggested that an increase in the area of low-intensity land-use on arable land (e.g. set-aside fields and short-rotation coppice), and high or increased farmland habitat heterogeneity, may halt or reverse the observed population decline of farmland birds. We tested these hypotheses by undertaking farmland bird censuses during two contrasting periods of agricultural policies and land-use (i.e. 1994 and 2004) in a farmland region covering a gradient of forest- to farmland-dominated landscapes in Sweden. Local species richness (i.e. at 3 hectare sites) declined significantly between 1994 and 2004. Local species richness was positively related to habitat heterogeneity in both years of study whereas temporal change in species richness was not. Local change in species richness was positively associated with a change in the proportion of non-rotational set aside and short-rotation coppice (i.e. low-intensity land-use forms), but also to changes in the amount of spring-sown crops. However, the effect of low-intensity land-use was significantly dependent on the amount of forest in the surrounding landscape. An increase in low-intensity land-use was linked to an increase (or less marked decrease) in species richness at sites located in open farmland surroundings but to a decrease in richness at sites located in forest surroundings. This interaction between amount of forest and low-intensity land-use could be interpreted as a “rare habitat effect”, where an increase in a farmland habitat only positively affects biodiversity when it was originally uncommon (i.e. open farmland areas). Our results suggest that conservation measures of farmland biodiversity have to be put in a landscape context.     

Future habitat loss and the conservation of plant biodiversity

Rapid land-use and climate changes are projected to cause broad-scale global land-cover transformation that will increase species extinction rates. We assessed the exposure of globally threatened plant biodiversity to future habitat loss over the first half of this century by testing country-level associations between threatened plant species richness and future habitat loss owing to land-use and climate changes, separately. In countries overlapping Biodiversity Hotspots, plant species endangerment increases with climate change-driven habitat loss. This association suggests that many currently threatened plant species will become extinct owing to anthropogenic climate change in the absence of potentially mitigating factors such as natural and assisted range shift, and physiological and genetic adaptations. Countries rich in threatened species, which are also projected to have relatively high total future habitat loss, are concentrated around the equator. Because poverty and poor governance can compromise conservation, we considered the economic condition and quality of governance with the degree of plant species endangerment and future habitat loss to prioritize countries based on conservation need. We identified Angola, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Laos, Madagascar, Myanmar, Nepal, Tajikistan, and Tanzania as the countries in greatest need of conservation assistance. For conservation endeavors to be effective, the conservation capacity of these high-need countries needs to be improved by assisting political stability and economic sustainability. We make policy recommendations that aim to mitigate climate change, promote plant species conservation, and improve the economic conditions and quality of governance in countries with high conservation need.     

Six years of habitat modification in a tropical rainforest margin of Indonesia do not affect bird diversity but endemic forest species

Studies on temporal changes of tropical bird communities in response to habitat modification are rare. We quantified changes in bird assemblages at the rainforest margin of Lore Lindu National Park, Central Sulawesi, over an interval of 6 years. Standardized bird counts were conducted in the years 2001/2002 and 2008 at 15 census points representing natural forest, secondary forest, agroforest and openland sites. Although overall species richness remained nearly identical, different species groups were affected unequally by habitat modification within the forest margin landscape. The mostly endemic forest species declined in abundance (72.0% of forest species) and were detected at fewer census points in 2008 (56.0%). In contrast, 81.8% of the solely widespread openland birds became more abundant and 63.6% of the species were recorded at a larger number of census points. Hence, recent human activities in the forest margin ecotone negatively affected species of high conservation value. Species richness turned out to be a poor indicator of habitat change, and our results underline the importance of considering species identities. Biotic homogenization as result of habitat conversion is a global phenomenon. In our study, the winners were widespread openland species, while the losers were endemic forest birds. In conclusion, our study shows that 6 years of land-use change had negative impacts on bird community structure and endangered species, but not on overall bird species richness.     

Inter-annual variability in the home range of breeding turtles: Implications for current and future conservation management

We assessed home range size for breeding loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) near the limit of the species range at the Greek island of Zakynthos in the Mediterranean. Thirteen adult females and seven adult males were tracked using GPS units (loggers and transmitters) during May and June of 2006, 2007 and 2008. Kernel analysis indicated that core home range sizes (50% estimator; range: 2.9-19.7 km²) for both males and females were restricted to a 7.5 km tract of coastline. 15% of GPS locations fell outside of the national park protection zones, while within the protected breeding area 88% of GPS locations occurred in zones of minimal protection. Female home ranges were 64% larger in 2008 than in 2006 and 2007, indicating that several years monitoring may be required for the most effective designation of marine protected areas (MPAs). Ten of the tracked females departed the core breeding area on 15 occasions for periods of 1-15 days travelling distances of 10-100 km, although none nested at alternative breeding sites. The inter-annual variability of breeding area home range size and likelihood of incidence of forays appeared be correlated with barometric pressure. The movement responses of loggerheads to environmental conditions implicates an ability to switch nesting areas over small scales in response to climate change. However, such behaviour suggests the protection of existing core breeding sites may be inadequate, with policy makers being required to consider the protection of broader areas to encompass potential changes in the habitat needs of this species.     

A river runs through it: Land-use and the composition of vegetation along a riparian corridor in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Riparian zones are important for the many ecosystem services they supply. In settled areas, the vegetation of such zones is shaped by human land-use; this often creates conditions under which alien plant species thrive. Alien plants have been shown to induce large-scale changes in riparian habitats, and they pose a major threat to the continued provision of key ecosystem services. We used direct gradient analysis to assess correlations between land-use and the composition of vegetation along a riparian river corridor in the highly transformed landscape surrounding Stellenbosch in South Africa’s Western Cape Province. Vegetation plots were sampled along the entire length of the river from headwaters to estuary (ca. 40 km). Plant community composition was analyzed in relation to land-use data collected in the field, and additional land-use variables computed from digital land-cover data. Patterns of plant community structure were found to be directly related to land-use, with measures of cover, richness, and diversity differing significantly among land-use types. Portions of the riparian zone adjacent to agricultural land had the greatest level of alien plant cover, while areas bordered by urban land maintained the highest alien species richness. Areas adjacent to grazing and natural lands showed intermediate and low levels of invasion, respectively. Several native species were found to persist in areas with high abundance and diversity of invasive alien plants, suggesting that they will be valuable focal species for future restoration attempts. Due to the level of human-mediated change in many areas of the riparian zone, restoration to historic conditions over most of the river is not considered feasible. These areas should be recognized as examples of novel ecosystems, and management efforts should focus on restoring or creating desirable ecosystem functions, rather than on achieving assemblages comprising only native species.     

Comparing static versus dynamic protected areas in the Québec boreal forest

Conservation planning is often based on static mapping of species’ ranges or habitat distributions. Succession and disturbance alter, however, habitat quality and quantity through time especially under global climate and land use change scenarios; hence, static protected areas may not ensure habitat persistence and species survival. Here, we examined the relative merits of static and dynamic (floating) protected areas for the conservation of American marten (Martes americana) habitat in a dynamic boreal forest of Québec (Canada). Forest dynamics were modeled using a spatially-explicit landscape disturbance model and protected areas were selected based on the quality and compactness of marten home ranges using MARXAN. Static protected areas were fixed in space during 200 year simulations of boreal forest dynamics, while dynamic protected areas were re-located every 50 years to track dynamic habitat. Dynamic protected areas supported more high quality home ranges through time than static protected areas. The locations of dynamic protected areas were constrained, however, by the highly fragmented forest patterns created through logging and fire in unprotected areas. Our findings emphasize the often-overlooked point that if dynamic conservation planning is to be successful in the long term, the landscape matrix quality surrounding protected areas must be managed in such a way that options remain when it comes to re-planning.     

Diversity patterns in butterfly communities of the Greek nature reserve Dadia

Traditionally, nature reserves have been centered mainly around areas that are important for vertebrate diversity. This practice has not gone unchallenged and may be a suboptimal choice for overall conservation planning. To investigate this problem, we sampled butterfly species richness in a nature reserve in north eastern Greece that was originally established for the protection of birds of prey. Patterns of butterfly species richness and abundance were investigated by means of transect walks across a range of the seven predominant habitat types (wet and dry meadow, pine, oak and mixed forest, grazed, and agricultural land). Data analysis, including ANOVA and DCA (detrended correspondence analysis), revealed that the main gradients in butterfly species richness (low to high) were from sites dominated by the pine forest matrix of the core areas of the reserve, to peripheral sites in landscapes of mixed or oak forest, and from sites with little human impact to more disturbed areas with high grazing pressure. Species of conservation interest were concentrated at sites of low human impact. Ten of them are endemic to Europe and/or threatened in Europe. In this respect, the most important species are Lycaena ottomanus, Thymelicus acteon, and Pseudophilotes vicrama which are declining all over Europe. Our results suggest that (1) traditional agricultural practices in areas surrounded by forest can be considered as important management tools in butterfly conservation, (2) highest butterfly species richness is found in the periphery of the reserve rather than in the core areas, and (3) for butterfly conservation the zones surrounding the strictly protected areas are equally important as the core areas.     

Factors and scales potentially important for saproxylic beetles in temperate mixed oak forest

The influence of environmental factors on species richness and species composition may be manifested at different spatial levels. Exploring these relationships is important to understand at which spatial scales certain species and organism groups become sensitive to fragmentation and changes in habitat quality. At different spatial scales we evaluated the potential influence of 45 factors (multiple regression, PCA) on saproxylic oak beetles in 21 smaller broadleaved Swedish forests of conservation importance (woodland key habitats, WKH). Local amount of dead wood in forests is often assumed to be important, but two landscape variables, area of oak dominated woodland key habitats within 1 km of sites and regional amount of dead oak wood, were the main (and strong) predictors of variation in local species richness of oak beetles. The result was similar for red-listed beetles associated with oak. Species composition of the beetles was also best predicted by area of oak woodland key habitat within 1 km, with canopy closure as the second predictor. Despite suitable local quality of the woodland key habitats, the density of such habitat patches may in many areas be too low for long-term protection of saproxylic beetles associated with broadleaved temperate forests. Landscapes with many clustered woodland key habitats rich in oak should have high priority for conservation of saproxylic oak beetles.     

Conservation policies and planning under climate change

Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two policy objectives focusing on (1) the protection on current (native) species, and (2) all species, including immigrating species. The trade-offs between the protection of native species versus all species is illustrated. The study shows that the development of prediction models of future species distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics.     

Quantifying the role of multiple landscape-scale drivers controlling epiphyte composition and richness in a conservation priority habitat (juniper scrub)

Recent concern over human-induced climate warming has activated bioclimatic research projecting the species-response to climate change scenarios. However, climate change is one of a range of human-induced environmental drivers controlling biodiversity, and for many species should be considered together within a framework of relevant stresses and threats. This paper critically assesses the sensitivity of epiphyte assemblages to regional gradients in climate, pollution regime and landscape-scale habitat structure (woodland extent and fragmentation). We examine lichen epiphytes associated with juniper scrub (a conservation priority habitat in Europe), sampled across a network of protected sites in Britain (Special Areas of Conservation). Results point to significant differences in associated epiphyte diversity between conservation priority sites. Historic woodland structure was identified as of greater importance than present-day woodland structure in controlling species composition and richness, pointing to an extinction debt among lichen epiphytes. Climatic setting was important in controlling species composition, but not species richness. However, we demonstrate that pollution regime exerts the dominant controlling force for epiphyte assemblages across regional gradients. As a corollary, we caution that for many species groups - for example those sensitive to pollutants, or landscape structure - an exclusive focus on climate is restricting, and that climate change models should expand to include a range of multiple interacting factors.     

Heavy reliance on surrogate species and historical data may confound estimates of the sustainability of hunting in Papua New Guinea

Birds are among the most widely studied organisms on earth and represent an important indicator group for learning about the effects of climate change – particularly in regard to the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems. In this review, we assess the potential impacts of climate change on tropical birds and discuss the factors that affect species’ ability to adapt and survive the impending alterations in habitat availability. Tropical mountain birds, species without access to higher elevations, coastal forest birds, and restricted-range species are especially vulnerable. Some birds may be especially susceptible to increased rainfall seasonality and to extreme weather events, such as heat waves, cold spells, and tropical cyclones. Birds that experience limited temperature variation and have low basal metabolic rates will be the most prone to the physiological effects of warming temperatures and heat waves. Mostly unknown species’ interactions, indirect effects, and synergies of climate change with other threats, such as habitat loss, emerging diseases, invasive species, and hunting will exacerbate the effects of climate change on tropical birds. In some models habitat loss can increase bird extinctions caused by climate change by 50%. 3.5 °C surface warming by the year 2100 may result in 600–900 extinctions of land bird species, 89% of which occur in the tropics. Depending on the amount of future habitat loss, each degree of surface warming could lead to approximately 100–500 additional bird extinctions. Protected areas will be more important than ever, but they need to be designed with climate change in mind. Although 92% of currently protected areas are likely to become climatically unsuitable in a century, for example only 7 or 8 priority species’ preferred climatic envelopes are projected to be entirely lost from the African Important Bird Area network. Networks of protected areas need to incorporate extensive topographical diversity, cover wide elevational ranges, have high connectivity, and integrate human-dominated landscapes into conservation schemes. Most tropical bird species vulnerable to climate change are not currently considered threatened with extinction, often due to lack of knowledge; systematically and regularly gathering information on the ecology, and current and future distributions of these species is an urgent priority. Locally based, long-term tropical bird monitoring and conservation programs based on adaptive management are essential to help protect birds against climate change.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of Protected Areas for conserving tropical forest butterflies of Thailand

In many cases, the designation of Protected Areas (PAs) is not based on biological information, particularly in tropical regions where such information is generally lacking. Thus it is unclear whether tropical PAs are well-placed for conserving biodiversity currently, or under future climate change. We used reserve-design software (‘Zonation’) to investigate current and future conservation value of PAs of Thailand (N = 187 PAs, covering ∼20% of Thailand) in relation to forest-cover and butterfly diversity. Currently, PAs are about 2 °C cooler than non-PAs because PAs tend to occur at higher elevation (66% of land above 1000 m is protected compared with only 6% below 250 m). Temperature is predicted to increase in Thailand in future, but PAs are predicted to remain ∼2 °C cooler than non-PAs in future. We obtained modelled distribution data for 161 butterfly species (∼12% of national butterfly fauna), and used Zonation to rank areas (∼1 km² grid resolution) based on species richness, complementarity, and forest cover. The conservation value of PAs was approximately twice that of non-PA areas, although many highly-ranked areas are not currently protected. The species richness of PAs was projected to decline by ∼30% in future, but the relative conservation rankings of individual PAs were projected to change very little. The preponderance of PAs in montane regions makes them well-placed to support forest species shifting from areas at lower elevation that become climatically unsuitable in future. By contrast, the conservation value of low-elevation PAs may decline in future if climate conditions become unsuitable for species.     

Biodiversity gains and losses: Evidence for homogenisation of Scottish alpine vegetation

Alpine areas are important biodiversity reservoirs, but are subject to anthropogenic drivers including climate change, nitrogen deposition and changing land use. Alpine vegetation has been proposed as an indicator of climate change impacts, but this requires long-term data since these communities have high inertia. Most studies have focussed on climate impacts in open, high-alpine summit communities; we investigated responses of closed low- and middle-alpine communities to multiple drivers. Scottish alpine vegetation data collected 1963-1987 was used as a baseline to assess biodiversity change across a range of habitats and a wide geographic spread. Change was assessed over a 20-40 years period using a variety of metrics including α- and β-diversity indices and biodiversity changes were contrasted between habitats and areas. We also examined changes in key species′ distribution and cover. Species richness increased in most habitats, while diversity at the plot scale and β-diversity declined, resulting in increased homogeneity of vegetation. This occurred in closed alpine communities over a 20-40 years period, implying that these communities are considerably more dynamic than previously thought. Key northern and alpine species declined while lowland generalist species increased. This change was consistent with predicted impacts of climate change, but other elements of spatial pattern (decline in lichen richness in high deposition areas) were consistent with effects of nitrogen pollution. Assessment of biodiversity change differed according to the metrics used and we argue that biodiversity targets for conservation management need accurate definition and that multiple measures of biodiversity are required to accurately assess long-term change.     

Multiple diversity measures to identify complementary conservation areas for the Baja California peninsular cacti

The Baja California Peninsula is home to 85 species of cacti, of which 54 are endemic, highlighting its importance as a cactus diverse region within Mexico. Many species are under threat due to collection pressure and habitat loss, but ensuring maximal protection of cacti species requires a better understanding of diversity patterns. We assessed species richness, endemism, and phylogenetic and morphological diversity using herbarium records and a molecular phylogeny for 82 species of cacti found in the peninsula. The four diversity measures were estimated for the existing nature reserve network and for 314 hexagrids of 726 km². Using the hexagrid data, we surveyed our results for areas that best complement the current protected cacti diversity in the Baja California Peninsula. Currently, the natural reserve network in Baja shelters an important amount of the cacti diversity (74% of the species, 85.9% of the phylogenetic diversity, 76% of endemics and all the growth forms). While species richness produced several solutions to complement the diversity protected, by identifying priority species (endemic species with high contribution to overall PD) one best solution is reported. Three areas (San Matías, Magdalena and Margarita Islands and El Triunfo), selected using species richness, PD and endemism, best complement the diversity currently protected, increasing species richness to 89%, PD to 94% and endemism to 89%, and should be considered in future conservation plans. Two of these areas could be included within nature reserves already established.     

Bird community structure across riparian buffer strips of varying width in a coastal temperate forest

Buffer strips are strips of forest retained along streamsides after harvesting to mitigate negative impacts of forestry on aquatic and riparian fauna and water quality. The capacity of riparian buffer strips of old-growth forest to maintain species richness and abundance of natural bird communities was explored in coastal montane forest on Vancouver Island, Canada. Breeding bird communities in buffer strips of varying widths along rivers were compared with controls of equivalent area in uncut old-growth riparian forest to identify shifts in species richness, diversity, abundance and composition. We observed that effects on riparian bird communities were greatest in very narrow buffers with high amounts of edge habitat. Several forest-interior species were found almost exclusively in wider buffers and abundances dropped dramatically between wide (125 m) and medium (41 m) width buffers with replacement by open-edge species in narrow buffers. Species composition of communities in wide buffers were very similar to controls while narrow buffers shared less than half of their species with controls. Species richness and diversity increased in buffers over the three years while remaining constant in controls. Increases in species richness and abundance within buffers were positively correlated with similar increases in the adjacent clearcuts, suggesting that regeneration in clearcuts may facilitate recolonization of forest in remnant buffers. For the forest-interior species found primarily in wide buffers, buffers >100 m may need to be retained.     

Response of a desert lizard community to habitat degradation: Do ideas about habitat specialists/generalists hold?

We report the impact of human-induced desertification on the species richness, abundance, and composition of sand dune flora and herpetofauna of North Sinai, Egypt. Our hypothesis was that degraded habitats would have reduced vegetation complexity, richness, and abundance, and consequently lower reptile species richness and abundance. We also hypothesized that desert lizards would not follow the typical generalist/specialist responses to habitat degradation found in other biomes. Instead, we predicted that because vegetation loss intensifies the environmental extremity of deserts, those species specialized for open and sandy environments would be more likely to persist in desertified habitats than would desert generalists. Our results showed that areas protected from vegetation loss did not have significantly higher vegetation richness or abundance except for only a few species. However, protected sites did have significantly higher percent vegetation cover and height. Habitat protection clearly had strong effects on the reptile community as species richness and abundances were significantly higher in protected sites. The composition of the reptile community between protected and unprotected sites differed significantly. Contrary to past studies in other environments, desert generalist species were not able to persist in degraded sites and were only found in protected sites. Specialist species were ubiquitous in that they occurred in both areas protected and unprotected from vegetation loss. We propose that the effects of disturbance on species composition (specialists or generalists) depends on whether the disturbance exacerbates or reduces environmental harshness and the conditions that favor specialization. In extreme environments, specialist and generalist responses to habitat degradation are opposite to that of more productive environments.     

Protection from harvesting restores the natural social structure of eastern wolf packs

Legal and illegal killing of animals near park borders can significantly increase the threat of extirpation for populations living within ecological reserves, especially for wide-ranging large carnivores that regularly travel into unprotected areas. While the consequences of human-caused mortality near protected areas generally focus on numerical responses, little attention has been given to impacts on social dynamics. For wolves, pack structure typically constitutes an unrelated breeding pair, their offspring, and close relatives, but intense harvest may increase adoption of unrelated individuals into packs. Concerns that high human-caused mortality outside Algonquin Park, Canada threatened the persistence of eastern wolves, led to implementation of a harvest ban in surrounding townships. We combined ecological and genetic data to show that reducing anthropogenic causes of mortality can restore the natural social structure of kin-based groups despite the absence of a marked change in density. Since implementation of the harvest ban, human-caused mortality has decreased (P = 0.000006) but been largely offset by natural mortality, such that wolf density has remained relatively constant at approximately three wolves/100 km². However, the number of wolf packs with unrelated adopted animals has decreased from 80% to 6% (P = 0.00003). Despite the high kinship within packs, incestuous matings were rare. Our results indicate that even in a relatively large protected area, human harvesting outside park boundaries can affect evolutionarily important social patterns within protected areas. This research demonstrates the need for conservation policy to consider effects of harvesting beyond influences on population size.