Disentangling effects of habitat diversity and area on orthopteran species with contrasting mobility

Loss of semi-natural grasslands and reduction of habitat diversity are considered major potential threats to arthropod diversity in agricultural landscapes. The main aim of this study was to investigate how area and habitat diversity, mediated by shrub encroachment after grassland abandonment, affect species richness of orthopterans in island-like grasslands, and how contrasting mobility might alter species richness response to both factors. We selected 35 isolated patches in landscapes dominated by arable land (durum wheat) in order to obtain two statistically uncorrelated gradients: (i) one in habitat area ranging from 0.2 to 55 ha and (ii) one in habitat diversity ranging from patches dominated by one habitat (either open grasslands or shrublands) to patches with a mosaic of different habitats. Habitat loss due to land-use conversion into arable fields was associated with a substantial loss of species with a positive species-area relationship (SAR), with sedentary species having a steeper and stronger SAR than mobile species. Halting habitat loss is, therefore, needed to avoid further species extinctions. Shrub encroachment, triggered by abandonment, presented a hump-shaped relationship with habitat diversity. An increase in habitat diversity enhanced species richness irrespective of patch area and mobility. Maintaining or enhancing habitat diversity, by cutting or burning small sectors and by reintroducing extensive sheep grazing into abandoned grassland, are suggested as complementary strategies to mitigate further decline of orthopteran diversity in the remnant patches. This would be equally important in both small and large patches.     

Recent declines in northern tall-grass prairies and effects of patch structure on community persistence

Tall-grass prairies are a critically endangered ecosystem in North America. Our objectives were to evaluate potential roles of prairie patch structure (defined in terms of prairie patch area, matrix type, and edge effects) in explaining changes in number, size, and quality of northern tall-grass prairies over time. In 2006, we evaluated changes in remnant tall-grass prairies at the most northern extent of the tall-grass prairie range, by resurveying plant communities in 65 remnant patches in Manitoba, Canada, that were previously surveyed in 1987 or 1988. In 2007 and 2008 we conducted more detailed surveys of vegetation structure and composition at 580, 0.2 × 0.5 m quadrats distributed within 24 remnant patches of northern tall-grass prairie. Our findings suggest remnant northern tall-grass prairies continue to suffer from serious threats: 37% of the patches surveyed in 1987 or 1988 had changed to other habitat types by 2006; patches smaller than 21 ha tended to decrease in size, while larger patches increased in size; and most patches, particularly smaller ones, declined in quality. Both native and alien species responded more strongly to distance to edge than to patch size or matrix type. Edge effects may explain why prairie quality is lower and more likely to decline in smaller remnants. Richness of native plants was negatively correlated with cover and richness of alien species, suggesting that alien species may displace native species. Few existing northern tall-grass prairies are likely to be self-sustaining, and immediate active management is required to prevent further loss of remnant northern tall-grass prairies.     

Viability and patch occupancy of a swamp rabbit metapopulation at the northern edge of its distribution

Swamp rabbits (Sylvilagus aquaticus) are state-endangered in Indiana, USA, and population decline has been attributed to habitat loss. We conducted pellet surveys as part of a long-term survey effort that has been conducted at approximate 10-year intervals over the last 40 years. We modeled patch occupancy and conducted a spatially-explicit population viability analysis (PVA). Although occupancy of individual patches varied over time, occupancy rate has been constant for the last 30 years, and Indiana swamp rabbits exist as a metapopulation that appears to be stable. Metapopulation dynamics were best characterized as being stationary, but area was an important factor in extinction rates; occupied patches (142 ± 37 ha) were significantly larger (P = 0.01) than unoccupied patches (79 ± 20 ha). We did not find strong support for models with colonization rates as a function of distance to neighboring patches, nor was distance to contiguous patches of habitat significantly different (P = 0.12) for occupied and unoccupied sites. Population viability analysis corroborated our findings based on occupancy modeling, and evaluation of the PVA model using occupancy data for the period 1985–2006 resulted in predictions that nearly matched our field observations (33% observed patch occupancy vs. 25% predicted patch occupancy). Population viability was most sensitive to reductions in survival and fecundity rates, but was otherwise robust to changes in parameters such as initial abundance and carrying capacity. Our findings provide novel insights into a poorly studied member of Sylvilagus and into species metapopulation dynamics at the edge of the range.     

Conservation value of tropical secondary forest: A herpetofaunal perspective

In some areas of the tropics forests are recovering on abandoned cattle pastures. These secondary forests may be important habitats for conserving biodiversity, but we know little about their species composition over the long term. We studied herpetofaunal community changes in a 40 years chronosequence of forest succession on abandoned pastures in Puerto Rico. Twelve submontane sites (100-250 masl) represented four forest recovery stages: pasture, young (1-5 years after abandonment), intermediate (10-20 years), and advanced (40 years). Among these stages we analyzed the relationship of forest structure, microclimate, and herpetofaunal community structure. During succession total forest height increased, new strata of vegetation appeared in the understory, and the forest gained heterogeneity and complexity. Microclimate changed with changes in the physiognomy and structure of the vegetation. Microclimatic shifts were more dramatic in forest <20 years since abandonment. During 1 year we observed 7991 individuals of thirteen reptilian species (60% of observations) and six anuran species. Herpetofaunal richness was similar among stages, but the total abundance increased through succession. Relative abundance of anurans and reptiles was similar between stages, but species dominance changed with succession. Forest >20 years old resembles mature forest in some structural characteristics important to herpetofauna and can provide habitat for forest herpetofauna in disturbed areas.     

Extirpation, colonization, and habitat dynamics of a keystone species along an urban gradient

Using 5 years of patch occupancy data for 384 habitat fragments, we evaluated population and habitat dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog in urban habitat remnants in the rapidly developing landscape of Denver, CO, USA. Specifically, we evaluated the landscape factors, including fragment area, age, and connectivity, that characterize the habitat fragments most likely to be colonized by prairie dogs, as well as those experiencing local extinctions. In addition, we determined which patch types were most often removed by land development. Sites in proximity to colonies were more likely to be colonized by prairie dogs. Local extinctions were most common on isolated colonies, and older and more isolated colonies were more likely to be extirpated by human activity. In general, smaller and older habitat patches were at the highest risk of being lost to land development. Our results provide observations of dynamic changes to the distribution of a potential keystone species in an urban area, which can be used to inform island biogeographic and metapopulation models for wildlife persistence in developing landscapes. Although populations are currently in decline, most local extinctions are the direct result of human activity, and we suggest that prairie dogs in this area can persist with appropriate management.     

Building large-scale spatially explicit models to predict the distribution of suitable habitat patches for the Greater rhea (Rhea americana), a near-threatened species

We developed large-scale spatially explicit models to predict the distribution of suitable habitat patches for the Greater rhea (Rhea americana), a near-threatened species, in two areas of central Argentina with different land use: a grassland area (ca. 4943 km²) mainly devoted to cattle grazing and an agro-ecosystem area (ca. 4006 km²) mostly used for crop production. The models were developed using logistic regression and were based on current records of Greater rhea occurrence coupled with remote sensing data, including land cover and human presence variables. The habitat suitability maps generated were used to predict the suitable habitat patch structure for wild rhea populations in each area. Fifty-one percent of the total grassland area was suitable for the species, being represented by a single large patch that included 62% of the individual locations. In the agro-ecosystem, only 28% of the total area was suitable, which was distributed among four patches. Seventy percent of rhea observations were in suitable habitat, with all rheas grouped in the largest patch. Conservation efforts for preserving wild rhea populations should be focused on maintaining habitats similar to grasslands, which are less profitable for landowners at present. Consequently, the protection of the pampas grasslands, a key habitat for this species as well as for others with similar habitat requirements, will demand strong conservation actions through the reconciliation of interests between producers and conservationists, since the proportion of croplands is increasing.     

Effect of habitat spatiotemporal structure on collembolan diversity

Landscape fragmentation is a major threat to biodiversity. It results in the transformation of continuous (hence large) habitat patches into isolated (hence smaller) patches, embedded in a matrix of another habitat type. Many populations are harmed by fragmentation because remnant patches do not fulfil their ecological and demographic requirements. In turn, this leads to a loss of biodiversity, especially if species have poor dispersal abilities. Moreover, landscape fragmentation is a dynamic process in which patches can be converted from one type of habitat to another. A recently created habitat might suffer from a reduced biodiversity because of the absence of adapted species that need a certain amount of time to colonize the new patch (e.g. direct meta-population effect). Thus landscape dynamics lead to complex habitat spatiotemporal structured, in which each patch is more or less continuous in space and time. In this study, we define habitat spatial structure as the degree to which a habitat is isolated from another habitat of the same kind and temporal structure as the time since the habitat is in place. Patches can also display reduced biodiversity because their spatial or temporal structures are correlated with habitat quality (e.g. indirect effects). We discriminated direct meta-community effects from indirect (habitat quality) effects of the spatiotemporal structure of habitats on biodiversity using Collembola as a model. We tested the relative importance of spatial and temporal structure of habitats for collembolan diversity, taking soil properties into account. In an agroforested landscape, we set up a sampling design comprised of two types of habitats (agriculture versus forest), a gradient of habitat isolation (three isolation classes) and two contrasting ages of habitats. Our results showed that habitat temporal structure is a key factor shaping collembolan diversity. A reduced diversity was detected in recent habitats, especially in forests. Interactions between temporal continuity and habitat quality were also detected by taking into account soil properties: diversity increased with soil carbon content, especially in old forests. Negative effects of habitat age on diversity were stronger in isolated patches. We conclude that habitat temporal structure is a key factor shaping collembolan diversity, while direction and amplitude of its effect depend on land use type and spatial isolation.     

Absent or undetected? Effects of non-detection of species occurrence on wildlife-habitat models

Presence-absence data are used widely in analysis of wildlife-habitat relationships. Failure to detect a species’ presence in an occupied habitat patch is a common sampling problem when the population size is small, individuals are difficult to sample, or sampling effort is limited. In this paper, the influence of non-detection of occurrence on parameter estimates of logistic regression models of wildlife-habitat relationships was assessed using analytical analysis and simulations. Two patterns of non-detection were investigated: (1) a random distribution of non-detection among occupied patches; and (2) a non-random distribution of non-detection in which the probability of detecting a species in an occupied patch covaried with measurable habitat variables. Our results showed that logistic regression models of wildlife-habitat relationships were sensitive to even low levels of non-detection in occupancy data. Both analytic and simulation studies show that non-detection yields bias in parameter estimation of logistic regression models. More importantly, the direction of bias was affected by the underlying pattern of non-detection and whether the habitat variable was positively or negatively related to occupancy. For a positive habitat coefficient, a random distribution of non-detection yielded negative bias in estimation, whereas linkage of the probability of non-detection to habitat covariates produced positive bias. For a negative habitat coefficient, the pattern was reversed, with a random distribution of non-detection leading to positive bias in estimation. A release-recapture livetrapping study of small mammals in central Indiana, USA, was used to illustrate the magnitude of non-detection in a typical field sampling protocol with varying levels of sampling intensity. Estimates of non-detection error ranged from 0 to 23% for seven species after 5 days of sampling. We suggest that for many sampling situations, relationships between probability of detection and habitat covariates need to be established to correctly interpret results of wildlife-habitat models.     

Bryophyte responses to fragmentation in temperate coastal rainforests: A functional group approach

The species richness and frequency of occurrence of bryophytes within taxonomic and functional groups was examined in relation to the size of 20 old-growth patches (size range: 0.6-63.6 ha) remaining after logging in temperate rainforests of coastal British Columbia. At the centre of each remnant patch, bryophytes were sampled in sixty-three 10 cm × 30 cm microplots on three substrate-types (forest floor, downed logs and tree bases). Generalized linear models demonstrated that the species richness and frequencies of some bryophyte functional groups were related to patch size. In particular, some dispersal-limited groups (perennial stayers) and microclimate-sensitive groups (closed canopy species, epixylic (log-dwelling) species, and liverworts) showed significant declines in either richness or frequency as patch size decreased. In contrast, colonists and open canopy species showed little association with patch size. Many, but not all, of the significant patch size relationships disappeared when the three smallest patches (0.6-1.8 ha) were eliminated from the analysis. These results suggest that patches sized 3.5 ha or larger may provide habitat capable of sustaining a diverse array of bryophyte functional groups in temperate rainforest landscapes.     

Spatial population structure of the Cabrera vole in Mediterranean farmland: The relative role of patch and matrix effects

There is mounting evidence that both patch networks and the intervening matrix influence species persistence in fragmented landscapes, though the relative importance of each of these factors in determining spatial population structure remains poorly understood. This study examined this issue using a three-year data set on the distribution of Cabrera voles (Microtus cabrerae) in Mediterranean farmland. The spatial pattern appeared consistent with a metapopulation structure, as voles occupied discrete tall herb patches scattered across the agricultural landscape, where local extinctions and colonizations induced temporal changes in occupancy patterns. Patch dynamics determined deviations from classical metapopulation assumptions, with over half the extinctions resulting from agricultural disturbance or vegetation succession, and recolonizations often occurring after the recovery of suitable habitat conditions sometime after disturbance. Occupancy in undisturbed patches was more stable, with vole occurrence in one year strongly reflecting that in the previous year. Overall, occupancy increased with both patch size and connectivity, but the unique contribution of patch variables to explain variation in vole occurrence was far smaller than that of matrix attributes. Voles occurred more often in patches surrounded by natural pastures, while prevalence declined with increasing cover by shrubland, pine plantations, improved pastures and grazed cropland. It is hypothesised that unfavourable land uses may increase the effective isolation of habitat patches through increased predation risk of dispersing voles. Conservation of the Cabrera vole in Mediterranean farmland should thus strive to maintain lightly grazed fields surrounding well-connected networks of suitable habitat patches.     

The age and amount of regrowth forest in fragmented brigalow landscapes are both important for woodland dependent birds

In highly-modified agricultural landscapes, regrowth (secondary) forest on abandoned farmland offers the potential for passive landscape restoration for biodiversity conservation. While numerous studies have investigated the ecological values of regrowth for fauna recovery at the local-level (1-10 ha), there is a dearth of studies quantifying the contribution of regrowth forest at the landscape-level (100-1000s ha). To address this critical knowledge gap we question how the age and amount of regrowth forest in the landscape influence species richness and abundance of mature forest dependent species? Using woodland dependent birds in fragmented sub-tropical brigalow landscapes in southern Queensland, Australia, we applied model averaging and hierarchical partitioning analyses to test and rank the relative importance of the amount of regrowth forest in the landscape in three age classes (<15, 15-30, and >30 years) compared to local (grazing disturbance, abundance of aggressive miners, mistletoe abundance and patch age) and landscape measures of habitat (amount of mature forest and number of mature forest patches). Response variables included the species richness of woodland dependent birds and sub-groupings of foraging guilds, and the abundance of selected individual species. The importance of explanatory variables differed considerably among response groups. Local attributes, such as patch age and the abundance of mistletoe plants, had the strongest influences on woodland dependent birds. However, we found that the amount of regrowth forest, particularly >30 years, also had a strong influence on both species richness and abundance. This study confirms that regrowth, especially older regrowth, can make an important contribution to landscape restoration in highly-modified agricultural landscapes.     

Characteristics of occupied habitats and identification of sites for restoration and translocation of New England cottontail populations

Since 1960 the range occupied by New England cottontails (NEC, Sylvilagus transitionalis) in the northeastern United States has declined dramatically. Populations in some regions are known to be vulnerable to extirpation, but little was known about the status of populations in most areas. A recently conducted (2000-2004) range-wide survey identified five disjunct populations within approximately 14% of the historic range of NEC. We incorporated the results of this survey into a geographic information system to examine habitat features associated with remnant populations of NEC at two spatial scales. The regional scale characterized habitats within our survey sample units, 7.5 min topographic quadrangles (quads, ∼40 × 10 km) that were occupied by NEC or vacant. The landscape scale described habitats within a 1-km radius of occupied patches and an equivalent sample of vacant patches. At the regional scale, northeastern and southeastern populations were associated with human-dominated habitats with a greater abundance of developed and disturbed lands, less forest coverage, more edge habitats, and less snow fall than unoccupied quads. Landscapes occupied by NEC in these regions were characterized by a greater abundance of potential dispersal corridors than unoccupied landscapes. In contrast, quads occupied by NEC in the southwestern portion of the historic range were in rural areas that were dominated by forests and agricultural fields. At the landscape scale, southwestern populations were affiliated patches of habitat surrounded by more agricultural lands than patches that were not occupied by NEC. Logistic regression models were then developed to identify habitats suitable for restoration or translocation within each region. We suggest that initial restoration efforts be directed toward expanding existing populations of NEC. Next, habitat connections should be developed among these populations. Finally, new populations should then be established via translocation in portions of the historic range that are vacant. In addition to promoting New England cottontails, management of early-successional and shrub-dominated habitats in the northeastern United States will benefit other taxa of conservation concern that are dependent on these habitats.     

Effects of structural and functional connectivity and patch size on the abundance of seven Atlantic Forest bird species

We studied the importance of fragment size and structural and functional connectivity on the occurrence and abundance of seven Atlantic Forest bird species in 13 patches (13-275 ha) and three sites within a continuous forest (10,000 ha). We sampled birds with point counts and evaluated structural connectivity considering the presence of corridors and the degree of isolation. We defined functional connectivity by analyzing species movements using playbacks in forest corridors between fragments and in the surrounding matrix. Species differed in their responses to fragmentation. For the frugivorous species, Trogon surrucura, Carpornis cucullatus and Triclaria malachitacea, patch size was the main factor determining abundance. Two understory insectivorous species, Basileuterus leucoblepharus and Pyriglena leucoptera, were more affected by the degree of patch connectivity, the former by the presence of corridors and the latter by the distance between patches. The capacity of P. leucoptera to use corridors and open areas (i.e. functional connectivity) shaped its abundance pattern. Fragmentation had no effect on the abundance of Chiroxiphia caudata and had a positive effect on Batara cinerea. This study emphasizes the importance of considering species’ perceptions of landscape, especially functional connectivity, in understanding the effects of habitat fragmentation.     

Colony site selection and abandonment by least terns Sterna antillarum in New Jersey,USA

To develop habitat and management procedures to protect declining populations of least terns, colony site selection and abandonment by this species was investigated at 26 sites in New Jersey. Multivariate analysis was used to compare (1) colony sites to adjacent unused areas, (2) those located on beaches to dredge spoil sites and (3) abandoned to occupied colony sites.The presence of shells or pebbles in a sandy substrate, and short, sparse vegetation, were the habitat characteristics of New Jersey least tern colony sites most strongly correlated with colony site selection. Dredge spoil sites had significantly greater evidence of human disturbance, distance to water, and proportion of coarse particles in the substrate than beach sites. These differences may have contributed to the smaller colonines and greater colony turnover rates at spoil sites relative to beach sites. Overall, abandoned colony site characteristics did not differ significantly from occupied sites. However, human disturbance, over-growth of vegetation, predation, and flooding were all prevalent at colonies prior to abandonment. The results of this study suggest techniques for habitat management of both least and little terns.     

Small mammals, habitat patches and PVA models: a field test of model predictive ability

The results are described of comparisons between actual values for patch occupancy for two species of Australian small mammals (Bush Rat Rattus fuscipes and Agile Antechinus Antechinus agilis) determined from field sampling and predictions of patch occupancy made using VORTEX, a generic simulation model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA). The work focussed on a fragmented forest in south-eastern Australia comprised of a network of 39 patches of native eucalypt forest surrounded by extensive stands of exotic softwood Radiata Pine (Pinus radiata) plantation. A range of modelling scenarios were completed in which four broad factors were varied: (1) inter-patch variation in habitat quality; (2) the pattern of inter-patch dispersal; (3) the rate of inter-patch dispersal; and (4) the population sink effects of the Radiata Pine matrix that surrounded the eucalypt patches. Model predictions were made for the total number of animals, the distribution of animal density among patches, the total number of occupied patches, and the probability of patch occupancy. Predictions were then compared with observed values for these same measures based on extensive field surveys of small mammals in the patch system. For most models for the Bush Rat, the predicted relative density of animals per patch correlated well with the values estimated from field surveys. Predictions of patch occupancy were not significantly different from the actual value for the number of occupied patches in half the models tested. The better models explained 10-16% of the log-likelihood of the probability of patch occupancy. While some of the models gave reasonable forecasts of the number of occupied patches, even in these cases, they had only moderate ability to predict which patches were occupied. Field surveys revealed there was no relationship between patch area and population density for the Agile Antechinus—an outcome correctly predicted by only a few models. Five of the 18 scenarios completed for the Agile Antechinus gave predicted numbers of occupied patches not significantly different from the observed number. In each of these five cases, large standard deviations around the mean predicted value meant uncertainty generated by the simulation model limited the predictive power of the PVA. Some of the models gave reasonable predictions for the number of occupied patches, but those models were unable to predict which ones were actually occupied. The results of our study suggest that key processes influencing which specific patches would be occupied were not modelled appropriately. High levels of variability and fecundity drive the population dynamics of the Bush Rat and Agile Antechinus, making the patch system unpredictable and difficult to model accurately. Despite the fact that both the Bush Rat and the Agile Antechinus are two of the most studied mammals in Australia, there are attributes of their biology that are presently poorly understood (which were not included in the VORTEX model), but which could strongly influence patch occupancy. For example, local landscape features may be important determinants of inter-patch movement and habitat utilisation in the patch system. Further empirical studies are needed to explore this aspect of small mammal biology.     

Habitat configuration affects colonisation of epifauna in a marine algal bed

Habitat fragmentation is a threat to the preservation of both terrestrial and marine biodiversity. While terrestrial systems have been well studied, relatively few studies have considered how changes to the spatial arrangement of habitats affect fauna in marine systems. In this study, sampling and manipulative experiments examined the effects of varying the size and isolation of habitat patches on the abundance of mobile invertebrates inhabiting an algal dominated rocky reef. Variation in the size of naturally occurring patches of the brown alga Sargassum linearifolium did not impact upon the abundance of any taxonomic groups, with the exception of polychaete worms, which were most abundant in small patches. When habitat patch size and isolation were manipulated, the abundance of colonising isopods increased with increasing isolation from contiguous habitat. Amphipods and ostracods colonised small patches to greater numbers than large patches. Sampling of the matrix was undertaken to examine the rarely tested assumption that the area between habitat patches is not a potential source of colonists to the habitat in question. The matrix was found to support a strikingly different community of invertebrates than did the algal habitats and thus was unlikely to be a source of colonists to isolated algal patches. The increased abundance on small and isolated patches for some taxa are inconsistent with traditional predictions of the effects of reduced habitat patch sizes and indicate that patchy landscapes should not necessarily be considered poor habitats. The variation in responses among taxonomic groups suggests that a range of patch sizes may be necessary to maintain species diversity.     

Coarse bed material patch evolution in low-order,ephemeral channels

In river channel beds composed of a wide range of grain sizes, the bed material is often arranged in discrete patches discernable by relative texture. These bed material patches are the primary source of entrainable coarse sediment within the channel system and their composition and size have been found to influence the composition and rate of sediment transport. Twelve coarse (gravel–cobble) sediment patches distributed throughout the channel network within a 4.53 ha watershed in southeastern Arizona were monitored for 2 years. Changes in patch area and grain size were measured and painted patch grains were monitored to confirm that patch grains were mobilized during flow. Individual coarse bed material patches exhibited variable persistence during flows with return frequencies ranging from approximately 1 year to 4.6 years. While no patch fully dispersed during the study period, two new patches formed. Most coarse patches remained relatively stable in area and grain-size distribution despite the entrainment of patch grains as lost grains were sufficiently replaced with sediment from upstream. Because of the grain replacement process and the effect of other sediment supply dynamics, the changes in patch area and grain-size distribution display a complex relationship with the magnitude of predicted grain mobilization within each patch. Results indicate that relative stability varies from patch to patch, influenced by the balance of patch grains transported out of the patch and the deposition of new grains into the patch. Predictive models of coarse sediment transport and yield that assume the channel bed is a fixed source of sediment supply may not adequately capture the sediment dynamics within patchy channel beds and should be used with caution when applied to these environments due to the possibility of patch instability as documented in this study.     

Thresholds in landscape parameters: occurrence of the white-browed treecreeper Climacteris affinis in Victoria, Australia

The concept of critical thresholds of habitat loss has recently received considerable attention in conservation biology and landscape ecology, yet empirical examples of thresholds are scarce. Threatened species management could benefit from recognition of thresholds because conditions under which populations are at risk can be specified. In this study, 56 woodland patches in north-west Victoria were surveyed for the white-browed treecreeper Climacteris affinis, a threatened insectivorous bird of the semi-arid zone of southern Australia. Comparisons with historic records indicate the species’ range is contracting in Victoria. Using logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning, two models of patch occupancy were developed. Tree species composition was an important factor in both models, confirming the treecreepers’ affinity for belah Casuarina pauper and slender cypress-pine Callitris gracilis-buloke Allocasuarina luehmannii woodlands in north-west Victoria. The first model emphasized the importance of demographic isolation: probability of patch occupancy decreased with distance to the nearest occupied patch. A threshold response in demographic isolation was apparent. In agricultural landscapes, most suitable woodland patches within 3 km of an occupied patch were occupied, whereas patches beyond the threshold were vacant. The threshold distance increased to a minimum of 8 km in a matrix of native vegetation, suggesting landscape context affects the response of white-browed treecreepers to habitat fragmentation. Demographic isolation is a quasi-dependent variable and therefore a second model was developed using surrogate variables for demographic isolation. A positive relationship with the proportion of woodland cover in the landscape (100 km²) emerged as the pre-eminent explanatory factor. Depending on woodland quality, a threshold of patch occupancy was apparent at levels of woodland cover between 15 and 25%. However, belah and slender cypress-pine-buloke woodlands now cover only 10% of their original extent in the region. These results highlight the inter-dependence of patch isolation with the amount and quality of habitat in the landscape and the implications this has for maintaining functional connectivity. The retention (or restoration) of suitable habitat is the critical issue for conservation of the white-browed treecreeper, but in landscapes below the threshold of habitat cover, viability of local populations may be influenced by the configuration and quality of remaining habitat.     

Glorious past, uncertain present, bad future? Assessing effects of land-use changes on habitat suitability for a threatened farmland bird species

Land-use changes have strong impacts on biological communities. Among them, land abandonment is threatening a large number of conservation-concern species associated with semi-natural habitats shaped by ‘traditional’ farming. We focused on the red-backed shrike as a model for investigating the effect of land abandonment on a threatened bird species, and used historical data to model dynamic scenarios. We explored variations in habitat suitability from the 1950s to the present and predicted possible future variations. After investigating local habitat preferences of the species, we formulated a spatially explicit model of habitat suitability for shrikes according to current land-use types; then, we evaluated past habitat suitability, by applying the model to three known past scenarios, and simulated the habitat changes after land abandonment. By combining a habitat-association approach with past and future land use scenarios, we assessed and predicted the effects of habitat changes caused by abandonment. Shrike occurrence was favoured by the cover of four types of grassland and of shrubland with trees, and negatively affected by broadleaved woodlands. The current average habitat suitability is less than half of what it was in the 1950s. Future predictions in a complete abandonment scenario suggest that important decrease could be expected 10 or 20 years after abandonment, and that after 30 years the red-backed shrike would be completely extinct. Alternative scenarios involving partial abandonment suggested that subsidy policies may mitigate the effects of abandonment. Knowing land-use dynamics allowed the exploration of effects of land-use changes and corroborated the importance of low-intensity farming for conservation.