The relative importance of patch habitat quality and landscape attributes on a declining steppe-bird metapopulation

Metapopulation theory is one of the most popular approaches to identify the factors affecting the spatial and temporal dynamics of populations in fragmented habitat networks. Habitat quality, patch area and isolation are mainly focused on when analyzing distribution patterns in fragmented landscapes. The effects of landscape heterogeneity in the non-occupied matrix, however, have been largely neglected. Here, we determined the relative importance of patch quality and landscape attributes on the occurrence, density and extinction of the Dupont’s lark (Chersophilus duponti), an endangered steppe passerine whose habitat has been extremely reduced to highly isolated and fragmented patches embedded in a mainly unsuitable landscape matrix. Habitat patch quality, measured in terms of vegetation structure, grazing pressure, arthropod availability, predator abundance, and inter-specific competition, did not affect occurrence, density or extinction. At the landscape scale, however, the species’ occurrence was principally determined by the interactions among patch size, geographic isolation and landscape matrix. Isolation had the main independent contribution to explaining the probability of occurrence, followed by landscape matrix composition and patch size. The species’ density was negatively correlated to patch size, suggesting crowding effects in small fragments, while extinction events were exclusively related to isolation. Our findings suggest that landscape rather than local population characteristics are crucial in determining the patterns of distribution and abundance of non-equilibrium populations in highly fragmented habitat networks. Consequently, conservation measures for these species should simultaneously involve patch size, isolation and landscape matrix and apply to the entire metapopulation rather than to particular patches.     

Modelling the effect of El Niño on the persistence of small populations: The Galápagos penguin as a case study

Small populations are vulnerable to long-term declines, even where short-term censuses indicate increasing trends in numbers. Census data for the Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) collected between 1970 and 2004 provide evidence that despite year-to-year population increases detected in most of the annual censuses, the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were followed by population declines of more than 60% from which the species has yet to recover. Such large declines raise concerns about the future viability of the species because the frequency and severity of El Niño events are predicted to increase. We used the simulation software VORTEX to evaluate the potential effects of El Niño on the risk of extinction of the Galápagos penguin population and its four constituent subpopulations. Weak and strong El Niño events were treated as catastrophes, with varying frequencies, which simulated past, current and future effects on the penguin population. The “Current El Niño” scenario, based on the frequency of El Niño events recorded in the Galápagos between 1965 and 2004, indicated an approximately 30% probability of extinction within the next 100 years for the penguin population. More ominously, the species may be at a greater risk if the frequency of strong El Niño episodes increases only marginally. A probability of extinction greater than 80% was predicted when the current frequency (5%) of strong El Niño events was doubled (to 10%). The probabilities of extinctions were higher for each subpopulation treated individually, ranging from 34% for Isabela and Fernandina, 64% for Bartolomé-Santiago to 78% for the smallest subpopulation on Floreana. Sensitivity analyses identified survival of penguins during El Niño events and sex ratio as influential parameters. The estimates of extinction risk may be conservative as other threats associated with increased human activities on the islands may further compromise species persistence.     

Multiple spatial scale logistic and autologistic habitat selection models for northern pygmy owls, along the eastern slopes of Alberta’s Rocky Mountains

Little is known about the distribution and habitat use of northern pygmy owls (Glaucidium gnoma), in Alberta or throughout their range. In Alberta they are ranked as ‘sensitive’, meaning they are not believed to be at immediate risk of extirpation or extinction but may require special attention or protection to prevent them from becoming at risk.Diurnal broadcast surveys were conducted to determine distribution and habitat selection throughout a 28,500 km² study area situated along the eastern slopes of the Alberta Rocky Mountains. Surveys lasted for eight weeks in 2001, during which time 1532 site visits were made. Forty-eight responses were recorded at 42 sites representing 40 individual northern pygmy owls. Predictive models of habitat selection were developed using stepwise logistic and autologistic regression. Autologistic models accounted for observed spatial dependencies and as a result, produced better fitting models that more accurately reflect the role of predictor variables in influencing species occurrence. All models considered biophysical variable selection at two spatial scales, the minimum (75 ha) and maximum (300 ha) home range size. Northern pygmy owls showed a preference for older, structurally diverse mixedwood habitats, with line-of-sight enhanced by increased edge and terrain roughness.The use of habitat selection models resulting from this project and Geographic Information Systems as a tool, will enable managers to identify key habitat features, focus future survey efforts, set habitat goals and evaluate the effects of management decisions on current and future habitat availability.     

Role of human-modified habitat in protecting specialist species: A case study in the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay

Habitat specialists are especially vulnerable to habitat alterations in vegetation structure and composition, making them difficult to protect and restore amidst agricultural landscapes. Protection strategies in such cases require information on species’ ability to survive and reproduce on marginal and modified habitat. We examined reproductive success, survival, and foraging efficiency of the Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), an extreme habitat specialist, in a human-modified habitat - regenerating pasture - along a pasture-native scrub interface. From 1985 to 2003, Florida Scrub-Jays were equally successful at producing young in regenerating pasture and native scrub. Production of eggs, nestlings, fledglings, independent young, and yearlings were not statistically different between territories containing pasture and those containing only scrub. Similar trends were observed for nest success and survival. When in pasture, individual jays were significantly more efficient at capturing small prey items, but significantly less efficient at capturing medium and large prey items. Availability of small prey items was significantly higher in pasture than in scrub; availability of medium and large prey items was not significantly different between habitat types. We conclude that regenerating pasture provides suitable supplemental habitat for Florida Scrub-Jays when in close proximity to native scrub, suggesting a novel conservation strategy for maintaining and potentially increasing local populations in fragmented agricultural settings. This case study illustrates how a broadened definition of ‘suitable habitat’ may augment existing conservation strategies for specialist species facing substantial and rapid modification of their native habitat.     

Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a fisher probability of occurrence model. The fisher occurrence model was selected from a family of generalized additive models (GAM) generated using numerous environmental variables and fisher detection–nondetection data collected at 228 survey arrays sampled repeatedly during 2002–2006. The selected GAM accounted for 69% of the Akaike weight using total above-ground biomass of trees, latitude-adjusted elevation, and annual precipitation averaged over a 5 km² moving window. We estimated equilibrium population sizes (or carrying capacities) within currently occupied areas, and identified likely population source, sink, and expansion areas, by simulating population processes for 20 years using different demographic rates, dispersal distances, and territory sizes. The population model assumed that demographic parameters of fishers scale in proportion to habitat quality as indexed by the calculated probability of fisher occurrence. Based on the most defensible range of parameter values, we estimate fisher carrying capacity at ∼125–250 adults in currently occupied areas. Population expansion into potential habitat in and north of Yosemite National Park has potential to increase population size, but this potential for expansion is predicted to be highly sensitive to mortality rates, which may be elevated in the northern portion of the occupied range by human influences, including roadkill and diseases carried by domestic cats and dogs.     

Use of monitoring data and population viability analysis to inform reintroduction decisions: Peregrine falcons in the Midwestern United States

The peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus anatum) has not yet recolonized natural cliff sites in Illinois and much of the lower Midwestern US, and remains restricted to urban areas. We constructed a landscape-linked population viability analysis using RAMAS/GIS software to compare possible reintroduction strategies for the species. Habitat-specific (i.e. cliff and urban) demographic parameters such as survival, fecundity, and dispersal rates were derived from the Midwest Peregrine Society Database for peregrines in the central Mississippi River region during 1982-2006. We simulated a base scenario of no reintroduction and 18 models of reintroduction with varying cohort sizes, supplementation schedules, and number of reintroduction sites, and used the Lake Superior population to test our model. Our analysis indicated that even without reintroductions in Illinois, the peregrine population in the lower Midwestern region is slowly increasing and is not likely to go extinct. Recolonization of cliff sites in southern Illinois likely will occur via dispersal from urban populations, however further research on dispersal rates between urban areas and cliffs is needed. Analysis indicated that the most cost-effective reintroduction strategy would be priced at approximately $280,000 and would result in only two additional breeding pairs compared to the no-action scenario. Thus, funds would be more effectively used in other management efforts such as habitat preservation. This study provides an example of how post-release monitoring can be used to inform future reintroduction plans.     

Inferring habitat-suitability areas with ecological modelling techniques and GIS: A contribution to assess the conservation status of Vipera latastei

Some snakes are highly vulnerable to extinction due to several life history traits. However, the elusive behavior and secretive habits of some widespread species constrain the collection of demographic and ecological data necessary for the identification of extinction-prone species. In this scenario, the enhancement of ecological modelling techniques in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is providing researchers with robust tools to apply to such species. This study has identified the environmental factors that limit the current distribution of Vipera latastei, a species with secretive behavior, and has evaluated how human activities affect its current conservation status, identifying areas of best habitat suitability in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) indicated low marginality (0.299) and high tolerance (0.887) scores, suggesting strong tendency for the species to live in average conditions throughout the study area and to inhabit any of the environmental conditions. The analysis also revealed that this viper tends to select particular Mediterranean habitats, although topographic factors (altitude and slope) were the major environmental constraints for the Iberian distribution pattern of the species. The presence of other parapatric viper species in the north of the Iberian Peninsula (V. aspis and V. seoanei) and two human-related variables (landscape transformation and human density) also had a negative relation with the occurrence of V. latastei. All factors can explain its absence in northern Iberia and its fragmented distribution as currently is found mostly in mountains and relatively undisturbed low-altitude areas. The historical destruction and alteration of natural Mediterranean habitats and several life-history traits of the species contribute to its vulnerability to extinction. The ENFA analysis proved to be an outstanding method to evaluate the factors that limit the distribution range of secretive and widespread species such as V. latastei, updating evaluation of their conservation status.     

Estimated persistence of northern flying squirrel populations in temperate rain forest fragments of Southeast Alaska

Habitat reserves are a common strategy used to ensure viability of wildlife populations and communities. The efficacy of reserves, however, is rarely empirically evaluated. We examined the likelihood that small (650 ha), isolated habitat reserves composed of old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) rain forest (upland-OG) and mixed-conifer peatlands (peatland-MC) would sustain populations of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus) in the absence of immigration or emigration within the Tongass National Forest in Southeast Alaska. We used demographic data obtained from a study of flying squirrels on Prince of Wales Island in Southeast Alaska and litter size from flying squirrels in similar habitat to estimate per capita rate of increase (r) of flying squirrels in upland-OG (r = 0.14, SD = 0.42) and peatland-MC habitats (r = 0.01, SD = 0.39). Our results indicated that peatland-MC habitat was unlikely to sustain populations and that viability of flying squirrel populations in small habitat reserves largely depended on the upland-OG forest component. We subsequently estimated time to extinction (T_N) based on r, its variance (v), and the potential population ceiling (K). We used T_N to calculate the probabilities (P_t) that squirrel populations would persist in small reserves containing 100%, 50%, and 25% upland-OG habitat for 25, 50, and 100 years. In each scenario, we calculated T_N and P_t for 2 levels of v. For the best-case scenario (100% upland-OG forest, lowest variance, t = 25 years), T_N was 507 years and P_t was 0.95. For the worst-case scenario (25% upland-OG forest, highest variance, t = 100 years), T_N was 237 years and P_t was 0.66. Minimum patch size of upland-OG forest required for a high probability (P_t = 0.95) of sustaining a flying squirrel population in isolation with relatively low demographic variability (v = 0.34) for 25, 50, or 100 years was 578, 5077, and 78,935 ha, respectively. We concluded that it was unlikely that small isolated habitat reserves could sustain populations of flying squirrels for >25 years in the absence of immigration. Consequently, dispersal among small reserves is critical to ensure that they function to support metapopulations of northern flying squirrels.     

Managing successional species: Modelling the dependence of heath fritillary populations on the spatial distribution of woodland management

Species that persist on a shifting mosaic of successional habitat offer particular challenges to conservation, to monitoring methods, and to population dynamic modelling. The conservation of the heath fritillary butterfly (Melitaea athalia) in woodland in England, for example, depends on the creation of woodland clearings by coppicing (rotational cutting). We have developed a simulation model to assist in the conservation of such populations, called MANAGE. We have parameterised the model for the M. athalia population in the Blean Woods in Kent, and used it to answer several management questions. We find that: (1) simulations predict that the observed rates of coppicing will not be enough to meet existing conservation (Biodiversity Action Plan) targets, except when the most generous modelling assumptions are made; (2) the greatest uncertainty in the model outcome arises from uncertainty in the colonisation parameters; (3) in the worst case scenario (using the most pessimistic model assumptions), a population would require 2.3% of the Blean Woods to be coppiced each year, which is around double the currently-observed rate; (4) the four management units of the Blean where coppicing is practised are not independent metapopulations– they support each other; and (5) to sustain a population in a smaller landscape would require less coppicing overall, but more as a percentage of the landscape. This modelling approach may prove useful in the development of conservation management plans for other species that inhabit successional habitats.     

Estimating habitat suitability and potential population size for brown bears in the Eastern Alps

According to the Habitats Directive of the European Union, a favorable conservation status for the brown bear (Ursus arctos) should be targeted at the population level in large contiguous habitats such as the Alps, the largest mountain range in Europe. However, in most of the Alps brown bears are extinct and habitat suitability in these areas is often questionable. For this paper, radio-tracking data from four projects with 42 individual bears was compiled to assess habitat suitability. Discrete-choice models with random bear effects were fitted and compared to results obtained from compositional analysis and logistic regression. Sound definition of the available area in the discrete-choice model turned out to be essential. Brown bears showed a preference for forested and steep habitats and an avoidance of roads.Results from the three approaches were used to predict habitat suitability across the entire range of the Eastern Alps. Minimum potential population size was projected based on observed densities in Trentino and Central Austria, and ranged from 1228 to 1625 individuals, with 518–686 mature bears. This would satisfy a favorable conservation status. The developed methodology also has wide applicability to quantification of habitat suitability and potential population size in other cases where species are at risk.     

Managing landscapes for the little bustard Tetrax tetrax: lessons from the study of winter habitat selection

More than half of the world's population of the little bastard Tetrax tetrax lives in the Iberian Peninsula, where it is mostly dependent for survival on extensive agricultural areas. The species has declined dramatically, chiefly due to changes in agricultural practices, and is now globally ‘Near Threatened’. Knowledge of its habitat requirements is crucial to reverse the trend of habitat deterioration. Winter habitat preferences were studied in a region dominated by extensive cereal farming in Southern Portugal, comparing the characteristics of sites used by 54 flocks with those of randomly selected sites within the study area. The birds preferred recent fallows and grassy vegetation of mid-size (about 11-20 cm) and mid-density (about 11-50% cover). They tended to concentrate on the tops of hills and to avoid disturbed areas near roads and houses. Overall, the observed preferences suggest that predator avoidance is a significant factor in habitat selection. To improve habitat suitability for little bustard, managers of key wintering areas should minimize permanent sources of human disturbance, encourage rotations with frequent fallows, and favour moderate levels of grazing to manipulate vegetation height and cover. Particular attention should be given to the upper parts of the hills.     

Assessing habitat use of the endangered marine mollusc Patella ferruginea (Gastropoda, Patellidae) in northern Africa: preliminary results and implications for conservation

The limpet Patella ferruginea Gmelin, 1791, endemic to the Mediterranean, is the most endangered marine species on the list of the European Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the Conservation of Natural Habitat of Wild Fauna and Flora (1992). Its Mediterranean range has progressively contracted to a few restricted areas and the species is now threatened with extinction. Seventeen stations were sampled along the littoral zone on the coast of Ceuta, North Africa, for quantifying environmental factors (water movement, siltation and suspended solids), and 70 transects were selected for P. ferruginea sampling. The study revealed the presence of a well-established population of P. ferruginea with values of density and size of 0.67 individuals m⁻¹ ±0.96 and 48.94 mm±11.61 respectively (mean±standard error of mean). The biggest densities of P. ferruginea were found inside the harbour of Ceuta. The limpets were more abundant on artificial harbour stones than on natural rocky shores, and the areas under the highest human pressure were characterised by the lowest densities and the smallest specimens probably due mainly to the predation for food and fishing. Human pressure is probably the main contributing factor to the currently endangered status of P. ferruginea. Programmes of environmental education to avoid its collection for fishing, food or for fun as decorative objects should be conducted, and further experimental studies dealing with the reproductive biology of this species are needed to properly assess the future programmes of conservation.     

Factors influencing survival and long-term population viability of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus): Implications for conservation

A population viability analysis is important for the management of endangered populations and requires the estimation of survival parameters. The long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) is one of only two native terrestrial mammals currently found in New Zealand and is classed as vulnerable. Its viability in temperate beech (Nothofagus) forest, Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand was estimated using mark-recapture data collected between 1993 and 2003 using the Program MARK. Survival was estimated based on a total of 5286 captures representing 1026 individuals. Overall annual survival varied between 0.34 and 0.83 but varied significantly among three sub-populations and with sex and age. Females generally had a higher survival rate compared to males; and adults had higher survival relative to juveniles. Survival of all bats was lower in years when the number of introduced mammalian predators was high and when the winter temperature was warmer than average. High numbers of introduced predators occurred during three of the 10 years in the study. Climate change may mean that the conditions that promote high predator numbers may occur more frequently. A preliminary population viability analysis using a projection matrix on the overall adult female population showed an average 5% decline per year (λ = 0.95). Increased predator control targeting a range of predators is required in years when their numbers are high in order to halt the decline of this population of long-tailed bats. Population estimates using minimum number alive estimates supported the population estimates derived from Program MARK and a population viability analysis using matrices.     

Modelling the influence of seasonal inter-habitat movements by an ecotone rodent

I assessed the long-term effects of seasonal inter-habitat movements for a common rodent, Microtus californicus, using matrix models tailored to demographic data obtained on populations living at the marsh-grassland ecotone. Three stochastic models were used to simulate the seasonal and spatial dynamics of this system, with the purpose of determining: (1) the growth rates of populations living in single versus a two-habitat landscape; and (2) if the amount, direction, and seasonality of rodent movements between the two habitats may impact these growth rates. The results indicated that grassland populations could be self-sustaining, but that isolated marsh populations would rapidly decline. Importantly, 98% of the two-habitat simulations yielded growth rates greater than those seen in the grassland model, with populations benefiting the most by movements from marsh into grassland at the end of the dry season. This study demonstrated that movements between marsh ‘sink’ and grassland ‘source’ habitats can potentially increase long-term population growth due to seasonal, inter-habitat differences in resource availability.     

The decline of Cantabrian capercaillie: How much does habitat configuration matter?

The endangered Cantabrian capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus cantabricus) has undergone a severe decline during recent decades. Capercaillies require large tracts of mature forest, and are thus sensitive to landscape-level habitat alteration. The high degree of fragmentation and anthropogenic disturbances in the habitat of Cantabrian capercaillie suggested that habitat patterns may be related to the population decline. To evaluate this we developed predictive habitat suitability models. We used a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate environmental variables and spatial context into two logistic models, comparing (a) presence vs. pseudo-absence habitat units (General model) and (b) presence vs. abandoned habitat units (Decline model). We obtained low overall habitat suitability and poor connectivity between high-suitability areas. We found evidence that habitat suitability is indirectly related to the process of population decline, and that the relationship between capercaillie presence and habitat configuration goes beyond the local spatial scale and the average size of forest fragments. We suggest that the combination of these two modelling procedures provides a deeper insight into the decline process, differentiating overall optimal and suboptimal areas (General model) and predicting the direction of eventual local extinctions (Decline model).     

Responses of cycads with different life histories to the impact of plant collecting: simulation models to determine important life history stages and population recovery times

Collection of plants and seeds from wild populations threatens a large number of cycad species. We investigated to what extent individual life history stages contribute to population growth (λ) and compared two species with major differences in life histories in the African genus Encephalartos: Encephalartos cycadifolius, a highly persistent grassland species that resprouts after fire, and Encephalartos villosus, a relatively fast growing, non-sprouting forest species. Several harvesting scenarios impacting different sized individuals were simulated to determine the sensitivity of the two functional types to harvesting. In both species λ was most sensitive to changes in abundance of adult plants. The harvesting of seeds had minimal impact on population growth rates, whereas harvesting of adult plants led to rapid population decline. This response from two very different functional types suggests that the conservation of adult plants is critical for all cycad species. Despite similar responses to adult mortality, the two species had substantially different population growth rates. This determined recovery time after harvesting of adult individuals. Encephalartos cycadifolius is typical of highly persistent plant species associated with low levels of recruitment and unable to recover from even small losses of adults within a reasonable conservation time frame (<100 years). Our results suggest that the ability to recover from loss of individuals is an important factor that should be considered when assessing the vulnerability of wild populations to threats.     

Minimum viable population and conservation status of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi, a species threatened by habitat loss and restricted geographical distribution. Objectives were to suggest quasi-extinction thresholds, estimate minimum areas of suitable habitat (MASH) and MVPs, and compare results with the species’ current status. The computer package VORTEX was used. The model predicted sizes of 200 animals to achieve demographic stability, but buffering declines in genetic variability required populations of 2000 animals. Estimated MASHs were approximately 250 and 2500 ha for demographic and genetic stability, respectively. Mortality rate and mean litter size were the most sensitive parameters to changes in model assumptions. The protection of known populations and the search for extant populations are the first steps in conservation. T. eliasi's issue could help protecting the coastal shrubland ecosystem of Rio de Janeiro state. Observing IUCN's criteria for listing threatened species, it is suggested that T. eliasi should be ranked as vulnerable in red lists.     

Modeling the reintroduction of lynx to the southern portion of its range

We modeled populations of lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) to determine prey densities required for persistence of lynx translocated to the southern portion of the species' range. The models suggested that a density of 1.1-1.8 hares/h is required for lynx persistence; these densities are higher than those reported for most hare populations across the USA. We found that lynx dispersal and density-independent mortality substantially increased the hare density required for lynx persistence. Reintroduction success was associated with number of release events, total number of animals released, and timing of release relative to the phase of the hare population cycle. However, no release protocol could override the negative effects of low prey density or high population losses. We conclude that successful lynx reintroduction requires high hare densities and minimal anthropogenic disturbance; few areas in the contiguous USA currently posses such qualities.     

Comparing population growth rates using weighted bootstrapping: Guiding the conservation management of Petrogale xanthopus xanthopus (yellow-footed rock-wallaby)

In this study we compare estimates of the long-term mean stochastic population growth rates, E[r] for Petrogale xanthopus xanthopus (yellow-footed rock-wallaby), a threatened Australian species. In fluctuating environments such as semi-arid areas, herbivore populations respond directly to changes in the biomass of food resources. Biomass is generally correlated with rainfall, so it is often useful to model annual population growth rates of herbivores directly with rainfall. Models of this nature are referred to as numerical response models. The factors that are thought to threaten this species include competition from introduced herbivores and predation from foxes. Annual aerial survey data collected from 1997 to 2004 over approximately 600 km of transect line were analyzed in seven zones within South Australia. Using the Ivlev numerical response model, the annual population growth rates were found to correlate best with the rain that fell in the seven-month period immediately prior to the surveys. Not surprisingly, positive growth rates were found to be associated with higher rainfalls in this period, while negative growth rates were associated with lower rainfalls. We also used weighted bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals around our estimates of long-term mean stochastic population growth rates, E[r]. The findings suggest that the estimates of E[r] are positive in areas where there is fox and herbivore management. However, we found no evidence that this species will decline in the absence of these treatments.     

Lynx reintroductions in fragmented landscapes of Germany: Projects with a future or misunderstood wildlife conservation?

Eurasian lynx are slowly recovering in Germany after an absence of about 100 years, and additional reintroduction programs have been launched. However, suitable habitat is patchily distributed in Germany, and whether patches could host a viable population or contribute to the potential spread of lynx is uncertain. We combined demographic scenarios with a spatially explicit population simulation model to evaluate the viability and colonization success of lynx in the different patches, the aim being to conclude guidelines for reintroductions. The spatial basis of our model is a validated habitat model for the lynx in Germany. The dispersal module stems from a calibrated dispersal model, while the demographic module uses plausible published information on the lynx’ life history. The results indicate that (1) a viable population is possible, but that (2) source patches are not interconnected except along the German-Czech border, and that (3) from a demographic viewpoint at least 10 females and 5 males are required for a start that will develop into a viable population with an extinction probability of less than 5% in 50 years. The survival rate of resident adults was the most sensitive parameter, and the best management strategy for the success of reintroduction would be to reduce the mortality of residents in the source patches. Nevertheless, the extremely low probability of connectivity between suitable patches makes most of the reintroduction plans isolated efforts, and they are therefore questionable in the long run. With such a model, the suitability of the single habitat patches can be assessed and the most appropriate management scheme applied. This study shows that simulation models are useful tools for establishing the comparative effectiveness of reintroduction plans aimed at increasing the viability of the species.