Identifying road mortality threat at multiple spatial scales for semi-aquatic turtles

Prioritizing sites for localized mitigation measures, and forecasting the effect of interventions on an endangered population, requires an understanding of the spatial scales at which threat processes operate. Road mortality is among the greatest threats to semi-terrestrial freshwater turtles due to the group’s life-history traits. Declining throughout much of their range, spotted (Clemmys guttata) and Blanding’s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) are exposed to high road densities and traffic volumes in the northeastern United States. We examine the distribution of roadkill risk for spotted and Blanding’s turtles at three spatial scales. Tortuosity during upland movements was used to predict road-crossing locations at the single-movement scale. A gravity model of wetland-to-wetland interactions was then developed to identify road mortality hot spots at a broader road segment scale. Finally, road-crossing risk was assessed at the scale of focal areas that support distinct populations, using a population viability analysis to evaluate the consequences of road mortality on resident populations. The observed spatial variability of road mortality risk was high for single road crossing movements, limiting the effectiveness of static mitigation measures conducted at this scale. At the broader road segment scale, road mortality hotspots were evident. The demographic risk associated with roads varied widely among discrete populations, with probabilities of extinction over 100-year projections reaching 5.1% for spotted turtles, and 58.8% for Blanding’s turtles. We conclude that conservation interventions are most likely to be effective in mitigating the effects of road mortality when implemented at the road segment and population scales.     

The return of the white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) to northern Germany: Modelling the past to predict the future

Linking age-specific vital rates to population growth through demographic matrix models can enhance our understanding of crucial population processes, vital in a conservation context. The white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) population in the Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, has been monitored since re-colonisation in 1947 and provides a well-documented example of a recovery. We test how demographic models capture growth trajectories of a recovering population and how applicable they are in guiding population management of endangered species. From 1947 to 1974, the population was stable but the growth rate predicted by an age-structured matrix model was −6.1% per annum. The small but stable population must have been maintained by immigration. From 1975 to 2008, observed and predicted population growths were very similar (6.7% and 4% per annum respectively). Elasticity and life-stage simulation analyses identified adult and pre-breeding survival as key vital rate elements. While the prospective analyses identified survival as the key vital rate influencing population growth, the increasing reproduction rate allowed the recovery to take place; thus caution is needed when prospective modelling makes management recommendations. Nevertheless, conservation efforts should address key mortality factors such as lead poisoning and collision with wind turbines. A logistic model predicted a maximum carrying capacity of 255 pairs for the Federal State, but using the highest currently observed density (1.4 pairs per 100 km²) and differences in habitat suitability, a more likely carrying capacity was estimated at 122 pairs. Under both scenarios, current population growth should slow soon.     

Demographic scenario inferred from genetic data in leatherback turtles nesting in French Guiana and Suriname

Nesting beaches around the Maroni estuary, at the border between French Guiana and Suriname (South America), currently host about 40% of the world’s population of breeding female leatherback turtles. Although the population size has been variable but always large since the 1980s, observations of leatherbacks in the region before 1950 were sporadic or absent and the number of nesting females was extremely low. These observations motivated us to use molecular markers to investigate whether the appearance of leatherbacks in this region was the result of natural long-term population cycles or of immigration. Analysis of 12 microsatellite loci failed to detect the signature of a recent demographic perturbation in the Maroni population of leatherbacks. This result suggests that the marked increase in population size can neither be explained by natural long-term cycles, nor by a founder effect. We conclude that the current population of the Maroni region likely resulted from extensive migrations of animals from elsewhere. Consequently, the Maroni population probably belongs to a metapopulation whose limits remain currently unknown. This metapopulation dynamic suggested by our results is a major feature that should be taken into account in future conservation strategies. We also estimate the effective population size at 90-220 individuals, which is lower than the target effective population size for conservation purposes. This relatively low effective population size indicates vulnerability, despite the large number of nesting turtles currently observed annually.     

Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population

Many species of conservation concern are in decline due to threats from multiple sources. To quantify the conservation requirements of these species we need robust estimates of the impact of each threat on the rate of population decline. However, for the vast majority of species this information is lacking. Here we demonstrate the application of integrated population modelling as a means of deriving robust estimates of the impact of multiple threats for a rapidly declining koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in South-east Queensland, Australia. Integrated population modelling provides a basis for reducing uncertainty and bias by formally integrating information from multiple data sources into a single model. We quantify mortality rates due to threats from dog attacks, vehicle collisions and disease and the extent to which each of these mortality rates would need to be reduced, or how much habitat would need to be restored, to stop the population declining. We show that the integrated population modelling approach substantially reduces uncertainty. We also show that recovery actions that only address single threats would need to reduce those threats to implausibly low levels to recover the population. This indicates that strategies for simultaneously tackling multiple threats are necessary; a situation that is likely to be true for many of the world’s threatened species. This study provides an important framework for quantifying the conservation requirements of species undergoing declines due to multiple threats.     

Population management of threatened taxa in captivity within their natural ranges: Lessons from Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) in Venezuela

Populations of threatened taxa in captivity within their natural ranges can make important contributions to conservation, but these may be compromised by the inappropriate application of population management goals developed in other contexts. We conducted demographic, genetic, and population viability analyses on the captive population of Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) in Venezuela to investigate the management of within-range captive populations in general, and to better integrate this population into the conservation of Andean bears in particular. We found that although the present population is very small and not internally self-sustaining, incorporation of confiscated wild individuals has resulted in a low average number of generations in captivity and low inbreeding, with moderate gene diversity and a high probability of future population persistence. However, past imports from extra-range populations have been from over-represented lineages of unknown origin, which have mixed with under-represented Venezuelan ones, reducing the future value of the Venezuelan population as a source for founder stock. Our analyses indicate that the rate of incorporation of wild recruits is a major factor influencing proxy measures of conservation value, and distinguishing within- from extra-range populations. This implies that, contrary to conventional wisdom, internal self-sustainability can be a misguided goal in within-range populations, which furthermore may not be suitable destinations for surplus animals from captive populations elsewhere.     

Island differences in population size structure and catch per unit effort and their conservation implications for Komodo dragons

Species inhabiting archipelagos are often characterised by high levels of interpopulation divergence (e.g. size related traits). This divergence may, in turn, influence their life-history. To facilitate better management and conservation of the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis), an island endemic, we identified demographic differences between two island populations in Komodo National Park, Indonesia. Comparison of data collected from dragon populations inhabiting Rinca Island and the much smaller Gili Motang Island indicated that between 1994 and 2004, the Komodo dragon population on Gili Motang significantly decreased its: (1) mean body mass, (2) body condition and (3) relative abundance. These results suggest that the numerically small Gili Motang population was oscillating downwards; in contrast, the Rinca Island population had been relatively stable. More importantly these results emphasize the necessity for managers of this priority conservation species to understand further the inherent functional differences among dragon populations to develop island specific management units. Current management practices (e.g. monitoring) instigated by Komodo National Park management ignore small island dragon populations and thus run the risk of being unable to detect adverse effects for populations that are potentially most prone to decline.     

Conservation biology for suites of species: Demographic modeling for Pacific island kingfishers

Conservation practitioners frequently extrapolate data from single-species investigations when managing critically endangered populations. However, few researchers initiate work with the intent of making findings useful to conservation efforts for other species. We presented and explored the concept of conducting conservation-oriented research for suites of geographically separated populations with similar natural histories, resource needs, and extinction threats. An example was provided in the form of an investigation into the population demography of endangered Micronesian kingfishers (Todiramphus cinnamominus). We provided the first demographic parameter estimates for any of the 12 endangered Pacific Todiramphus species, and used results to develop a population projection matrix model for management throughout the insular Pacific. Further, we used the model for elasticity and simulation analyses with demographic values that randomly varied across ranges that might characterize congener populations. Results from elasticity and simulation analyses indicated that changes in breeding adult survival exerted the greatest magnitude of influence on population dynamics. However, changes in nestling survival were more consistently correlated with population dynamics as demographic rates were randomly altered. We concluded that conservation practitioners working with endangered Pacific kingfishers should primarily focus efforts on factors affecting nestling and breeder survival, and secondarily address fledgling juveniles and helpers. Further, we described how the generalized base model might be changed to focus on individual populations and discussed the potential application of multi-species models to other conservation situations.     

Modelling hunting strategies for the conservation of wild rabbit populations

Recently, European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations have undergone a sharp decline that may be exacerbated by hunting. We investigate the effects of the timing of hunting on the conservation of wild rabbit using a model for rabbit population dynamics. Scenarios with different hunting rates and age strategies were simulated for different population qualities. We interviewed hunters to ascertain the degree to which they would accept a change in the timing of hunting. We also investigated the hunting pressure applied by hunters and its relationship with rabbit abundance. Modelling results indicate that the current hunting season has the greatest impact on rabbit abundance. Hunting in late spring optimises hunting extraction while conserving rabbit populations. When the rabbit population quality is low the effects of age strategies and the timing of hunting are less important than the effect of the hunting rate applied. Almost half the hunters would agree to policy changes. More than 75% of hunters implemented self-imposed hunting restrictions to improve rabbit populations, that were more frequently applied in high rabbit abundance areas. Therefore, changing the timing of hunting and increasing the participation of hunters in low abundance areas could optimise both the exploitation and the conservation of wild rabbit populations in southwestern Europe.     

Pragmatic management increases a flagship species, the Himalayan brown bears, in Pakistan’s Deosai National Park

Deosai Plateau in Northern Pakistan was designated a national park to protect the largest remnant population of brown bears in Pakistan. The natural resources of this high elevation (3500-5000 m) park make a significant contribution to the livelihood of local and nomad communities. The present legislation excludes people from a park, which increases conflicts between management and local people. However, a pragmatic approach was adopted to involve people in conservation in Deosai. Community participation, achieved by recognizing rights and introducing incentives, reduced resistance against the conservation efforts, reduced grazing pressure in bear habitat and helped reduce poaching. The size of the brown bear population was set as an indicator of park success, and was monitored annually from 1993 through 2006. We observed a 5% annual growth of the brown bear population, suggesting that the conservation program has been successful due to a successful cooperation between an NGO, people, and the park management.The increase of the bear population is significant, because we observed an extremely low reproductive rate, due to late age of first reproduction (8.25 years), a long reproductive interval (5.7 years), and a small litter size (1.33). The reproductive rate of the Deosai population is the lowest yet documented for brown bear populations. Poor habitat quality, low quality food, high seasonality, and extreme weather conditions in the Himalaya probably explain the poor reproductive performance. Considering such low reproduction and known exchange of individuals with neighboring populations, we believe that the observed growth was a sum of reproduction and immigration. Brown bears are declining throughout South Asia and often have low-productive rates. Therefore, conservation efforts for brown bears in this region must target reducing human-caused mortalities, particularly of adult females. Involvement of people can increase efficiency in conservation, in addition to reducing cost and conflicts.     

Demography of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) at Uda Walawe National Park, Sri Lanka based on identified individuals

We provide estimates of population size and other demographic variables for individually-identified Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Uda Walawe National Park (UWNP), Sri Lanka based on systematic year-round observations. Two hundred and eighty-six adult females and 241 adult males were identified, of which four adults (2% of males) had tusks. Sightings-based demographic models showed seasonal immigration and emigration from the study area. The total population, including non-adults, was between 804 and 1160 individuals. Density ranged from 102 to 116 adult females per 100 km² and remains at this level throughout the year. This large, un-fragmented population of Asian elephants should be of high conservation priority. We find that estimates of survivorship and migration rates should be based on long sampling intervals when possible, but estimates of density and population size can still be made when observations are constrained to shorter intervals, if spatial data are available. We offer suggestions to guide census design for other elephant populations or cryptic species. We urge that other locations be systematically surveyed as well using photographic identification.     

Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are predicted to be negatively affected by climate warming, but the timeframe and manner in which change to polar bear populations will occur remains unclear. Predictions incorporating climate change effects are necessary for proactive population management, the setting of optimal harvest quotas, and conservation status decisions. Such predictions are difficult to obtain from historic data directly because past and predicted environmental conditions differ substantially. Here, we explore how models can be used to predict polar bear population responses under climate change. We suggest the development of mechanistic models aimed at predicting reproduction and survival as a function of the environment. Such models can often be developed, parameterized, and tested under current environmental conditions. Model predictions for reproduction and survival under future conditions could then be input into demographic projection models to improve abundance predictions under climate change. We illustrate the approach using two examples. First, using an individual-based dynamic energy budget model, we estimate that 3-6% of adult males in Western Hudson Bay would die of starvation before the end of a 120 day summer fasting period but 28-48% would die if climate warming increases the fasting period to 180 days. Expected changes in survival are non-linear (sigmoid) as a function of fasting period length. Second, we use an encounter rate model to predict changes in female mating probability under sea ice area declines and declines in mate-searching efficiency due to habitat fragmentation. The model predicts that mating success will decline non-linearly if searching efficiency declines faster than habitat area, and increase non-linearly otherwise. Specifically for the Lancaster Sound population, we predict that female mating success would decline from 99% to 91% if searching efficiency declined twice as fast as sea ice area, and to 72% if searching efficiency declined four times as fast as area. Sea ice is a complex and dynamic habitat that is rapidly changing. Failure to incorporate climate change effects into population projections can result in flawed conservation assessments and management decisions.     

A nine-year study of successful breeding in a Bonelli’s eagle population in southeast Spain: a basis for conservation

We analyse the factors influencing breeding success in a healthy population of Bonelli’s eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) from south-east Spain, a raptor that has suffered a serious decline in Europe. Between 18 and 33 pairs were annually monitored during the period 1994-2002. Several factors that may affect four breeding parameters were studied, namely human presence, vegetation, relief, climatic factors, intra- and inter-specific relationships, diet, prey abundance, nest building, adult mortality and age of reproduction. A consistently high breeding success was registered during the study period (productivity=1.43, SD=0.11), which was probably the result of high adult survival, adequate prey availability and mild weather conditions. However, a certain vulnerability to the presence of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) and to human disturbance was observed. One interesting result was the reduced survival of young chicks on north-facing cliffs owing to colder conditions, which may partially explain the decline of the Bonelli’s eagle populations along its European distribution limits. We discuss the role of this healthy subpopulation in an Iberian metapopulation context, and propose that the potential interference of golden eagles should be taken into account when designing management strategies for Bonelli’s eagles. Finally, we pinpoint some conservation priorities and the importance of reducing the main causes of adult mortality (i.e. shooting and electrocution) to assure successful reproduction and survival of this species.     

Minimum viable population and conservation status of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi, a species threatened by habitat loss and restricted geographical distribution. Objectives were to suggest quasi-extinction thresholds, estimate minimum areas of suitable habitat (MASH) and MVPs, and compare results with the species’ current status. The computer package VORTEX was used. The model predicted sizes of 200 animals to achieve demographic stability, but buffering declines in genetic variability required populations of 2000 animals. Estimated MASHs were approximately 250 and 2500 ha for demographic and genetic stability, respectively. Mortality rate and mean litter size were the most sensitive parameters to changes in model assumptions. The protection of known populations and the search for extant populations are the first steps in conservation. T. eliasi's issue could help protecting the coastal shrubland ecosystem of Rio de Janeiro state. Observing IUCN's criteria for listing threatened species, it is suggested that T. eliasi should be ranked as vulnerable in red lists.     

Beyond the wetland border: Estimating the impact of roads for two species of water snakes

We used models integrating road maps, traffic volume, and snake movements to examine the potential for roads to contribute to mortality in two species of water snakes that differ in their vagility, use of terrestrial habitats, and conservation status. Road networks and traffic volumes typical of three regions in Indiana, USA, may account for mortality of 14-21% of the population per year in the more vagile, terrestrial, and imperiled copperbelly water snake (Nerodia erythrogaster neglecta) but only 3-5% mortality in the more sedentary, aquatic, and common northern water snake (Nerodia sipedon). The majority (>91%) of road crossings and associated mortality are predicted to occur during overland migrations to other wetlands, suggesting roads bisecting travel routes between wetlands may function as mortality sinks. Our models highlight the proportionately greater risk of mortality for the more vagile and imperiled species, N. e. neglecta, and suggest current wetland conservation strategies that focus on the wetland alone are unlikely to adequately protect wetland biodiversity from certain types of anthropogenic habitat modification. What is needed is a landscape approach to wetland conservation that considers not only the quality of wetlands and nearby terrestrial habitats, but also ensures that terrestrial corridors between wetlands remain permeable and offer safe passage for wildlife.     

Conservation priorities differ at opposing species borders of a European orchid

How populations from different regions within the distribution of a species contribute to the adaptive potential and survival of that species has important implications for formulating conservation actions. We test assumptions of concepts on geographic population structure (e.g. central-marginal concept and ‘rear edge versus leading edge’ model) that could be used to inform conservation of plant species under climatic changes. We analyze a comprehensive dataset of demographic traits (e.g. population size, flowering, δ¹³C of plant leaves) of up to 32 sites of Himantoglossum hircinum (L.) Spreng. (Orchidaceae) located within six sub-regions of its European distribution range. Soil and climate parameters are employed as environmental predictors of variation in measured population traits. Climate is the main driver of demographic variability overriding central-marginal gradients that might be present. Warming of the climate at high latitudes paves the way for northward range expansion of species. Populations at the north and north-eastern range peripheries partly show exponential population growth and high genetic diversity and are likely to be the source of immigrants for colonization of newly suitable habitats as the climate continues to change. In recent times, populations at the southern range periphery have suffered from intensification of land use and decreasing rainfall, but in the case of Southern Italy are important because they contain genetically unique traits. Populations at both, ‘leading’ and ‘rear’, edges ought to be at the focus of conservation planning. Different conservation strategies are proposed at opposing species borders taking into account spatial variation in population needs on a geographic scale, projected population response to expected environmental changes and genetic characteristics.     

Monitoring the performance of wild-born and introduced lizards in a fragmented landscape: Implications for ex situ conservation programmes

Ex situ conservation of animal populations may benefit from captive-breeding programmes, but these are criticised because they are assumed to be difficult, time-consuming and expensive, while they do not guarantee success. However, such assumptions remain untested in most organisms; for example, introductions could be very useful for recovering populations of small-sized species with short generation time, no learned behaviours, and ease to rear in captivity. Here, we document an easy, cheap and successful reintroduction programme of the lacertid lizard Psammodromus algirus. Two captive-bred cohorts (178 juveniles in 2001 and 187 in 2002) were released in four woodland fragments (0.9-5.2 ha) at two localities (B and V); B housed a stable lizard population whereas V apparently lacked a viable population of lizards. We monitored introduced and native lizards during 2002 and 2003, and carried out a corroborative searching in 2006 which confirmed the existence of a lizard population at site V. Introduced lizards had higher activity and dispersed more frequently among woodland fragments than native ones. Survivorship and growth rates were similar for both groups, but introduced juveniles were about 25% larger than native ones, due to both early hatching and better rearing conditions. The whole procedure was easily implemented in our Faculty facilities (mean hatching and hatchling survival rates of 0.90 and 0.87), and cost less than 20,000 € (excluding salaries). Therefore, similar programmes may be of wide application in small animals and of practical importance for species with a meta-population structure living in fragmented landscapes.     

The conservation status of the spectacled petrel Procellaria conspicillata

The spectacled petrel Procellaria conspicillata is listed as critically endangered due to its small population size and ongoing mortality on long-lines. Spectacled petrels were counted in 2004, repeating a census made in 1999 at their sole breeding locality, Inaccessible Island. The 2004 survey took place earlier in the breeding season than the previous count, allowing for more robust estimates of burrow occupancy. During early incubation, birds responded to call playback at 69% of burrow entrances, but birds in at least 8% of burrows remained silent. Birds in shallow burrows were less likely to respond to playback than were those in deep burrows. Two repeat trials at 100 marked nests showed that at least 61% of apparently ‘unoccupied’ burrows were occupied on subsequent checks, resulting in an overall occupancy estimate of 91%. Occupancy was equally high in peripheral colonies. The apparent spatial extent of colonies increased slightly from 1999, and the estimate of total burrow numbers increased by 50%, from 5900 burrows in 1999 to 8900 in 2004. Validation surveys indicated that burrow numbers were underestimated (84 ± 3%) to the same extent as that in 1999 (85 ± 4%), and repeat checks of one colony where all nests were marked showed that even careful counts underestimated actual numbers of burrows by up to 10%. This suggests there are some 11-12,000 burrows, and assuming 90% occupancy, the adult population is likely to be at least 20,000 birds. The population has increased over the last five years, continuing the apparent recovery from a very small population size in the early 20th century. Despite this increase, demographic models indicate that the population remains at risk from relatively small increases in mortality, if mortality is determined primarily by fishing effort. Mitigation of long-line mortality remains the key conservation goal for this species.     

Are edge bird populations doomed to extinction? A retrospective analysis of the common guillemot collapse in Iberia

In the first half of the XXth century, the common guillemot (Uria aalge) was the seabird with the largest breeding population in Atlantic Iberia (ca. 20,000 individuals), the low-latitude limit of the species breeding range. However, this population suffered a dramatic decline and is quasi-extinct at present. The decline was believed to be associated with reduced availability of pelagic prey fish due to climate change. In this study, we analyzed the population change of Iberian guillemots in the second half of the XXth century by means of a retrospective analysis. Our study showed that between 1960 and 1974 the guillemots in Iberia suffered a dramatic population crash (33.3% annual decline) and that subsequently, the population continued to decline at a slower annual rate (13.4%). Simulation models indicated that the factors driving the population crash should be related to adult survival, rather than reproduction. The analysis of environmental and fishery data suggested good climate conditions and higher or sustained availability of pelagic prey fish when the Iberian guillemots crashed. In contrast, relevant human-related factors were affecting adult mortality in that period, specially a rapid and large increase in the number of synthetic fishing nets. During the collapse, no conservation measures were undertaken to mitigate anthropogenic threats and it was assumed, in some extent, that this low-latitude edge population was somehow prone to extinction as a consequence of climate change. This study highlights that to carelessly attribute the decline of rear edge populations to climate change could be highly misleading if the population is suffering from other, particularly human, threats.     

Responses of cycads with different life histories to the impact of plant collecting: simulation models to determine important life history stages and population recovery times

Collection of plants and seeds from wild populations threatens a large number of cycad species. We investigated to what extent individual life history stages contribute to population growth (λ) and compared two species with major differences in life histories in the African genus Encephalartos: Encephalartos cycadifolius, a highly persistent grassland species that resprouts after fire, and Encephalartos villosus, a relatively fast growing, non-sprouting forest species. Several harvesting scenarios impacting different sized individuals were simulated to determine the sensitivity of the two functional types to harvesting. In both species λ was most sensitive to changes in abundance of adult plants. The harvesting of seeds had minimal impact on population growth rates, whereas harvesting of adult plants led to rapid population decline. This response from two very different functional types suggests that the conservation of adult plants is critical for all cycad species. Despite similar responses to adult mortality, the two species had substantially different population growth rates. This determined recovery time after harvesting of adult individuals. Encephalartos cycadifolius is typical of highly persistent plant species associated with low levels of recruitment and unable to recover from even small losses of adults within a reasonable conservation time frame (<100 years). Our results suggest that the ability to recover from loss of individuals is an important factor that should be considered when assessing the vulnerability of wild populations to threats.     

Extension of landscape-based population viability models to ecoregional scales for conservation planning

Landscape-based population models are potentially valuable tools in facilitating conservation planning and actions at large scales. However, such models have rarely been applied at ecoregional scales. We extended landscape-based population models to ecoregional scales for three species of concern in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region and compared model projections against long-term trend data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We used a spatially-explicit demographic model and structured the regional population into ecological subsections on the basis of habitat, landscape patterns, and demographic rates to assess species viability. Our model projections were within 2% of the Breeding Bird Survey trends over the last 40 years for each species. Wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) populations remained relatively stable over the simulation and worm-eating warbler (Helmitheros vermivorus) abundance increased throughout most of the time period until reaching carrying capacity. In contrast, the prairie warbler (Dendroica discolor) population steadily declined by 0.59% annually. The combination of habitat and demographic modeling allowed us to create models that address processes driving these populations at all scales, which is critical to understanding how regional populations respond to landscape processes such as habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, because it is spatially explicit and directly addresses population growth and viability, this approach provides a valuable foundation to planning conservation strategies, offering the ability to identify the most salient risks to viability and explore ways to address them.