Predictive modelling and ground validation of the spatial distribution of the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

The use of predictive models is continually increasing, but few models are subsequently field-checked and evaluated. This study evaluates the statistical strength and usefulness for conservation purposes of a predictive habitat use model developed for Chalinolobus tuberculatus, a threatened microchiropteran bat species found in the temperate rainforests of New Zealand. The relationship between various environmental variables and the presence/absence of the species was investigated using generalised linear modelling. The model developed was coupled with GIS data to develop maps of predicted occurrence within the West Coast region of New Zealand’s South Island. It was found that distance to forest boundary, slope, presence of Nothofagus, general land cover, variability in mean annual solar radiation, and mean ambient winter minimum temperature were significantly associated with the occurrence of the species. Evaluation of the statistical strength of the distribution model with independent data of species’ occurrence collected at 152 sites found that the C. tuberculatus model showed a moderate ability to predict both species presence and absence (τ(b) coefficient = 0.37). The field detection rate (0.45) using this model was significantly higher than that of historical surveys (0.12). The value of the species habitat model and the need to evaluate its utility in the development of conservation strategies is discussed.     

Conserving marginal populations of the food plant (Impatiens noli-tangere) of an endangered moth (Eustroma reticulatum) in a changing climate

Impatiens noli-tangere is scarce in the UK and probably only native to the Lake District and Wales. It is the sole food plant for the endangered moth Eustroma reticulatum. Significant annual fluctuations in the size of I. noli-tangere populations endanger the continued presence of E. reticulatum in the UK. In this study, variation in population size was monitored across native populations of I. noli-tangere in the English Lake District and Wales. In 1998, there was a crash in the population size of all metapopulations in the Lake District but not of those found in Wales. A molecular survey of the genetic affinities of samples in 1999 from both regions and a reference population from Switzerland was performed using AFLP and ISSR analyses. The consensus UPGMA dendrogram and a PCO scatter plot revealed clear differentiation between the populations of I. noli-tangere in Wales and those in the Lake District. Most of the genetic variation in the UK (H_T=0.064) was partitioned between (G_ST=0.455) rather than within (H_S=0.034) regions, inferring little gene flow occurs between regions. There was similar bias towards differentiation between metapopulations in Wales, again consistent with low levels of interpopulation gene flow. This contrasts with far lower levels of differentiation in the Lake District which suggests modest rates of gene flow may occur between populations. It is concluded that in the event of local extinction of sites or populations, reintroductions should be restricted to samples collected from the same region. We then surveyed climatic variables to identify those most likely to cause local extinctions. Climatic correlates of population size were sought from two Lake District metapopulations situated close to a meteorological station. A combination of three climatic variables common to both sites explained 81-84% of the variation in plant number between 1990 and 2001. Projected trends for these climatic variables were used in a Monte Carlo simulation which suggested an increased risk of I. noli-tangere population crashes by 2050 at Coniston Water, but not at Derwentwater. Implications of these findings for practical conservation strategies are explored.     

The recent decline of a New Zealand endemic: how and why did populations of Archey's frog Leiopelma archeyi crash over 1996-2001?

Dramatic changes have been documented in New Zealand's vertebrate faunas since human settlement, involving major declines and extinctions, but over recent years few species have declined in numbers so rapidly as the terrestrial Archey's frog Leiopelma archeyi (Anura: Leiopelmatidae). Long-term monitoring over more than 20 years revealed a major population reduction of the species over 1996-2001 and L. archeyi is now classified as Nationally Critical under the New Zealand threat classification system. The decline progressed northwards in the Coromandel ranges, and mostly larger (female) frogs survived. On a 100 m² study plot at Tapu Ridge, annual population estimates averaged 433 frogs (SE ±32) over 1984-1994, declining by 88% to average 53 frogs (SE ±8) over 1996-2002. A mean annual survival rate of 82% for most years declined to 33% over 1994-1997. There is mounting evidence to suggest that disease is the major agent of decline, supported by (1) the rapidity and severity of decline, (2) the progressive (south to north) nature of decline, and (3) finding frogs with chytriodiomycosis from Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis at the time of decline. Surprisingly, sympatric populations of the semi-aquatic Leiopelma hochstetteri have not declined dramatically, nor has a western population of L. archeyi at Whareorino, despite chytridiomycosis occurring in some frogs there. Sustaining and restoring populations of L. archeyi in New Zealand raises major challenges for conservation management.     

The impact of predation by introduced stoats on Hutton's shearwaters, New Zealand

The Hutton's shearwater Puffinus huttoni is an endangered species of burrowing petrel, that is threatened at its two remaining breeding colonies by the activity of introduced stoats Mustela erminea. Predation of eggs, chicks and adult shearwaters was studied over 10 consecutive breeding seasons (1989/1990-1998/1999) and resident stoats were radio-tracked in two seasons. Stoats were estimated to be killing on average 0.25% of breeding adults and 12% of chicks in each season. Population modeling of Hutton's shearwaters indicated that the estimated impact of this predation was a reduction in the potential yearly population growth rate of 0.86±0.22%. The overall average growth rate derived from the population model of 0.44%, suggests that the population is not in immediate risk of decline and controlling stoats within the colony need not be a priority for management.     

Ecology of the native and introduced crayfishes Austropotamobius pallipes and Procambarus clarkii in southern Spain and implications for conservation of the native species

The former and present distribution of white clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) in the province of Granada (southern Spain) is studied. Before 1980 it was widely distributed but at present only 16 populations exist. The decline is related to the presence of the freshwater red-swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), an American species, vector of the aphanomycosis disease, introduced to the Iberian Peninsula in 1974 and now widely distributed in the watercourses and marshes of southern Spain. To establish an appropriate conservation policy for A. pallipes at its southernmost distribution limit, we studied watercourses from two river basins, Genil and Guadiana Menor, (tributaries of the Guadalquivir River). P. clarkii inhabits the medium to lower reaches of these two river basins (with its upper limit at 820 m a.s.l.). The distribution of this species was best explained by the effect of three of the 12 analyzed variables: altitude, water-current and minimum winter temperatures. From our results, the repopulation of the native crayfish is almost impossible in those reaches inhabited by P. clarkii. However, based on the habitat selection study, it is clear that upper reaches are unsuitable for the red-swamp crayfish, where the native white-clawed crayfish may have greater survival possibilities, and these sites can be used for future restocking projects.     

Reproductive biology and conservation implications of three endangered snapdragon species (Antirrhinum, Plantaginaceae)

About 32% of Antirrhinum species are considered to be endangered; however, no field studies have focused on their reproductive biology. In this work, several aspects of the reproductive biology (flowering phenology, floral biology, breeding system) and potential limits on seed quantity and quality (pollen limitation, inbreeding depression) were studied in natural populations of three endangered species of the genus (Antirrhinum charidemi, Antirrhinum subbaeticum, Antirrhinum valentinum). Results disclose that all three species need insect visitors for seed production since fruit set after autonomous self-pollination was lower than under hand cross-pollination. A. charidemi and A. valentinum were mainly self-incompatible, whereas A. subbaeticum was self-compatible but herkogamous. Supplementary pollination in open-pollinated flowers only increased fruit set and seed set relative to controls in a given population of A. valentinum. Preliminary data on inbreeding depression at early life-cycle stages of the self-compatible A. subbaeticum revealed that the cumulative level was low. Despite the three species being closely related and sharing many ecological characteristics, they show different mating systems, and different factors limit seed quantity and quality. Thus, caution should be taken when making a common conservation plan for a group of closely related taxa.     

Applying ecological niche modelling to plan conservation actions for the Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei)

The Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei) is an endangered, small range and migratory parrot threatened by habitat destruction and pet trade. We modelled its geographical distribution with the objective of predicting its historical, current and future (in face of climatic changes) geographical distributions. We also tested the assumption that the species tracks similar ecological conditions while seasonally migrating. Finally, we estimated the overlap between its predicted distributions and the current protected areas network. We used eight modelling techniques in an ensemble-forecasting approach to reach consensus distributional scenarios. The modelled historical breeding and wintering ranges covered a larger area than today. Its current year-round distribution is located in the same region as before but decreased by 13%, whereas the breeding range decreased by 32%, and the wintering range by 43%. The future year-round distribution is predicted to decrease by 47% and shift to east by 2060. Even more drastic decreases in range are predicted for breeding (63%) and wintering (91%) ranges. The niches of the breeding and wintering distributions are good predictors of the records of the other season. The greatest variation (SDs) in the predictions comes from modelling tools and GCMs, and little from climatic scenarios. However, variation in predictions were small within high probability regions for modelling tools by higher everywhere for GCMs and climatic scenarios. The Red-spectacled Amazon is currently underrepresented (<1% of year-round range, and <4% of each seasonal range) in the current reserve system. A broad view over all estimated and predicted ranges revealed that a small portion of the range has a very important role in current and future conservation actions for this bird - in the northeast part of state of Rio Grande do Sul and southeast state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.     

Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming

A generalised linear model was used to predict climatically suitable habitat for the golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia De Vis), an endemic species of the Wet Tropics of North Queensland. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean precipitation of the wettest quarter were found to be the best habitat predictors. For independent validation data, accuracy was 67% (Kappa statistic, n=30). Past, and future habitats suitable to the golden bowerbird were mapped by altering the temperature and precipitation input to the model. In the current climate, total potential habitat is estimated to be 1564 km², occurring as a number of separate patches with distinct bowerbird subpopulations. Past habitat was most limiting, 406 km², during the Holocene climatic optimum (c. 5000-3600 YBP, +2 °C and +50% rainfall relative to today). With future warming, assuming a 10% decrease in rainfall, potential habitat is reduced to 582 km² (1 °C warming), 163 km² (2 °C warming) and 37 km² (3 °C warming). Thus, global warming in the coming decades is likely to be a significant threat to the survival of this and similar upland and highland species in the tropics.     

Growth and competitiveness of the New Zealand tree species Podocarpus cunninghamii is reduced by ex-agricultural AMF but enhanced by forest AMF

The composition of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) communities found in agricultural systems has been found to be very different to that of forest. The implications of this, if any, for the restoration of indigenous forest on ex-agricultural land is poorly understood. This study investigated the effect that AMF communities isolated from ex-agricultural and forest soils have on the growth of an indigenous New Zealand tree species (Podocarpus cunninghamii). The forest AMF community was isolated from a remnant stand of P. cunninghamii forest and the ex-agricultural AMF from a retired grazing grassland. In addition, the study examined how the two AMF communities affected the competitiveness of P. cunninghamii when grown in competition with an invasive grass species (Agrostis capillaris), which is frequently dominant on ex-agricultural land in New Zealand. P. cunninghamii growth was significantly decreased by inoculation with ex-agricultural AMF compared to forest AMF. Furthermore, the forest AMF community was able to significantly increase P. cunninghamii root production when in competition with A. capillaris. The findings suggest that when attempting to restore indigenous forest on ex-agricultural land, inoculation of tree seedlings with appropriate forest AMF may improve their growth and survival.     

Site fidelity and along-shore range in Hector's dolphin, an endangered marine dolphin from New Zealand

To document site fidelity and the alongshore range of individual Hector's dolphins we analysed sightings of 32 photographically identified dolphins, each seen ?10 times at Banks Peninsula, New Zealand, between 1985 and 1997. The furthest two sightings of an individual were 106 km apart. All other individuals ranged over less than 60 km (x?=31.0 km, SE=2.43) of coastline. Gender did not significantly influence alongshore range (female x?=30.4 km, SE =3.21, n=18; male x?=27.4 km, SE=5.68, n=5). Site fidelity was high: for example, on average, individuals were seen in Akaroa Harbour for about two thirds of the years they were known to be alive. These data suggest that impacts on Hector's dolphins are most appropriately managed on a small spatial scale.     

Anthropogenic and natural disturbance lead to differing patterns of gene flow in the Rocky Mountain tailed frog, Ascaphus montanus

Understanding the influence of habitat alteration on population structure and persistence is critical for effective conservation strategies. Timber harvest and wildfire are two of the most prevalent disturbances across temperate forests, yet the long-term effects of these two forces on population connectivity have rarely been studied. We studied populations of the Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus) across landscapes that have experienced either timber harvest or broad scale fires. Rocky Mountain tailed frogs generally require forested habitat, and are a species of concern in managed forests. We used landscape genetic techniques to test the explanatory power of alternative paths of connectivity across both burned and harvested forests and identified topographical and climatic variables that significantly influenced gene flow. We found that timber harvest and fire led to different patterns of genetic connectivity. Widespread terrestrial gene flow was maintained across previously burned areas and connectivity was primarily limited by solar radiation. In contrast, gene flow among populations in managed forests followed riparian corridors, presumably to avoid the loss of cover due to timber harvest. Gene flow along riparian corridors in Rocky Mountain tailed frogs differs from a population of the closely related coastal tailed frog (Ascaphus truei), for which gene flow appears to occur primarily over land. These results suggest management of Rocky Mountain tailed frogs should focus on maintaining riparian buffer zones, which may be less effective for the coastal species. Thus, consideration of landscape differences is essential even for conservation of closely related, morphologically similar species.     

Impacts of sediment loads, tadpole density, and food type on the growth and development of tadpoles of the spotted tree frog Litoria spenceri: an in-stream experiment

The impact of increased-deposited sediment loads on growth and development of tadpoles of the spotted tree frog, Litoria spenceri, in south-eastern Australia was assessed in conjunction with food type and tadpole density. This investigation was conducted in stream enclosures subjected to varying treatments of tadpole density, substrata and deposited-sediment load. Tadpole growth and development were not significantly affected by food type, but there was a trend toward increased performance on periphyton substrata. Tadpole growth and development were significantly reduced by increases in tadpole density and sediment load. These effects were independent, suggesting that increased sediment load reduced food quality rather than quantity. Activities in catchments that increase sediment loads in streams may adversely affect growth and development of tadpoles of L. spenceri. Increased sediment input into streams may therefore reduce tadpole fitness and recruitment to the terrestrial stage. Disturbance processes that increase stream sediment loads, such as forestry activities and associated road construction, may potentially have contributed to the observed declines of L. spenceri and other lotic anurans in south-eastern Australia.     

Habitat associations of the endangered damselfly, Coenagrion mercuriale, in a water meadow ditch system in southern England

The damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale (Charpentier) (Odonata: Coenagrionidae) is threatened throughout Europe. It is listed on the EC Habitats and Species Directive and is the only odonate currently given priority status in the UK Biodiversity Action Plan. Information about the habitat preferences of this species is required to guide conservation and management programmes. We obtained estimates of density of mature adult C. mercuriale during an intensive mark-release-recapture study over 7.65 km of a water meadow ditch network in the Itchen Valley, Hampshire. Detailed habitat information was also collected, including a variety of physical variables, and data about the in-channel and bankside vegetation. C. mercuriale density and movement were analysed in relation to habitat variables and local population size using Generalized Linear Models. Mean adjacent population density was the single most important factor determining density. However the species was also associated with a number of habitat features, the most important of which were: a channel substrate consisting primarily of silt, wide underwater ledges (berms), in-channel emergent dicots, and bankside monocots. The presence of trees was negatively associated with damselfly density. Mean net lifetime movement was greatest from sections with low density, with smaller than average berms, and with deeper water. The causes and consequences of these findings are discussed in relation to the conservation and management of this rare species.     

Expectations for population growth at new breeding locations for the vulnerable New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) using a simulation model

Management plans for threatened or recovering large vertebrate species that are increasing in population size and range focus on the establishment of viable populations within set temporal limits. New Zealand (Hookers) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) were declared a threatened species in 1997, and New Zealand legislation requires that threatened species of marine mammals must be managed to reduce human-induced mortality and achieve a non-threatened status within 20 years. The present breeding distribution of P. hookeri is highly localised, with over 95% of total annual pup production located at Auckland Islands and almost all of the remainder at Campbell Island. Breeding elsewhere has been ephemeral or restricted to <10 adult females. The only recorded sustainable breeding at a new location has been at Otago, South Island, New Zealand. This breeding population consisted of a total of four breeding females in 2002 and is derived from one immigrant female that gave birth to her first pup in the 1993/1994 breeding season. The New Zealand Department of Conservation management plan specifies that to achieve a non-threatened status P. hookeri (1) at Otago must increase in the number of breeding females to ?10, and (2) must establish ?two new breeding locations within the 20-year time frame, each with ?10 breeding females. This study 1) projects the population growth trends at a new location (Otago) to see if it will achieve ?10 breeding females within the legislated time frame, and (2) examines the likelihood that other breeding locations will establish elsewhere given the demographic information available for this species. We present 20 deterministic and three stochastic Leslie matrix model scenarios for female population growth for the initial years following the start of breeding at a new location. Our results indicate that (1) a new breeding population derived from one immigrant female is unlikely to reach 10 breeding females in 20 years; this duration is more likely to be 23-41 years (deterministic models) or 23-26 years (stochastic model), (2) the likelihood of two new sites establishing within 20 years is unquantifiable, but the probability is low, and (3) if the legislated outcome and time limit are not revised in the population management plan, the feasibility and effectiveness of re-locating young females could be investigated.     

Dispersal of breeding, adult male Phocarctos hookeri: Implications for disease transmission, population management and species recovery

Dispersal impacts on a range of population parameters making it a key piece of information in species conservation. Despite its importance, dispersal is poorly characterized for many species: pinnipeds are no exception. Understanding dispersal patterns of the New Zealand sea lion Phocarctos hookeri is crucial in the conservation management of the species as its recovery to a non-threatened status hinges on range recolonisation. In this study, we examined the movements of breeding adult male New Zealand sea lions within and following the breeding season of the 2002/03 austral summer using a novel multi colony approach. Based on resightings of 202 individually identifiable adult males, we found (1) a previously unappreciated, high level of dispersal by adult territorial males between breeding colonies during the pupping period and (2) that breeding males disperse to the extremes of the species’ range at the end of female oestrous. Our findings are contrary to the current paradigm of otariid breeding behaviour, which is believed to consist of prolonged, uninterrupted male territoriality based on intense male-male competition and sustained fasting. Adult male dispersal between colonies and across the species range has important implications for adult males as vectors of disease in three recent epizootics, species management and species recovery via recolonisation as males are apparently remaining part of a localized, vulnerable breeding population.     

Relationship between population size and genetic diversity in endangered populations of the European bullhead (Cottus gobio): implications for conservation

This study investigated the relationship between the current size of endangered bullhead (Cottus gobio) populations and microsatellite genetic variability. Additionally, the microsatellite data were used to evaluate whether a genetic test for population bottlenecks was able to provide evidence of recent severe population declines. Finally, our results were used to develop conservation priorities and measures. Population size appears to be a crucial parameter in determining the amount of genetic diversity that can be preserved in bullheads, since a significant positive correlation was observed between both variables. Furthermore, in some populations we were able to detect genetic signatures of the documented decline in population size. We suggest that the most immediate goal for bullhead conservation should be to increase the size and the range of the populations, and in doing so minimise or even reverse further genetic erosion. Potential management actions like habitat quality improvement, reduction of river fragmentation and supplementation programmes (translocation, supportive breeding) are discussed.     

Herbicides, weeds and endangered species: management of bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. rotundata) with glyphosate and impacts on the endangered shrub, Pimelea spicata

Environmental weed invasion threatens the biodiversity of native species. Unfortunately, managing these weeds may also affect biodiversity adversely. A recent example occurred when glyphosate, a herbicide used to control the highly invasive weed, bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. rotundata), accidentally drifted over a small population of an endangered shrub, Pimelea spicata. Following concerns that the affected population would not recover and, thereby, cause the local extinction of P. spicata, we conducted a series of glasshouse and field experiments to explore the impacts of glyphosate on this endangered species. Seedlings and young plants of P. spicata, in which the tap root was undeveloped, were killed by a single application of glyphosate. Older plants with a well developed tap root also died back initially, but about 50% of individuals re-sprouted. This re-growth was associated with a significant decrease in tap root diameter, implying that further disturbance, including repeated treatment with glyphosate, would kill plants by impairing their potential for recovery. Unlike some sclerophyllous native shrubs, the tolerance of P. spicata to glyphosate was limited, even when its growth was slowed artificially by limiting water availability. Winter applications of glyphosate to manage infestations of bitou bush will impact adversely on populations of P. spicata and may also affect the other rare and endangered species whose survival is threatened by this species, even though some natives are unaffected by the herbicide. Protecting native biodiversity from bitou bush will involve sustainable weed management that minimises impacts on non-target native species.     

Habitat and flower resource partitioning by an exotic and three native bumble bees in central Hokkaido, Japan

Studies of the interspecific relationships between alien and native pollinator species can help forecast the success of alien species as well as assess the extent of disturbance to native plant-pollinator interactions. We examined the habitat and flower resource occupancy by the invasive introduced bumble bee Bombus terrestris and three dominant native bumble bees in central Hokkaido, northern Japan, in relation to a landscape factor (forest cover ratio) and flower morphology with respect to the proboscis length of bees. Three years of monitoring the invasive boundary of B. terrestris indicated that this species, which dominates open agricultural areas, probably will not invade the forests in which the native species dominate. This habitat partitioning likely followed the displacement of the natives by the invader in open agricultural lands. In forested areas, the native species partitioned flower resources on the basis of the relationship between proboscis length and the lengths of the corolla tubes of flowers. However, in open agricultural areas, both the long- and short-tubed flowers were primarily visited by the exotic short-tongued B. terrestris, which foraged illegitimately (by nectar robbing) on long-tubed flowers (Trifolium pratense L.) and legitimately on short-tubed flowers (T. repens L. and Lavandula angustifolia Mill.). The invasion of B. terrestris into open natural vegetation, in addition to open agricultural areas, has recently been reported in Hokkaido. Even though the exotic and dominant native bumble bees partition their habitat according to landscape factors, the invasive bee has the potential to alter the overall interactions within plant-pollinator systems in the regions of open vegetation on Hokkaido Island.     

Interactions between climate, beaver activity, and pond occupancy by the cold-adapted mink frog in New York State, USA

Mink frogs (Rana septentrionalis) are cold-adapted, climate-sensitive amphibians occurring above the 43rd parallel in North America. We conducted repeated night call surveys at 46 ponds near the southern edge of the species’ range to collect presence/absence data and used information-theoretic models to relate pond occupancy to historical climate and habitat factors. Mink frog occurrence was strongly and positively influenced by pond size (>1.5 ha) and the presence of beavers (Castor canadensis). Presence of calling mink frogs decreased sharply at sites with historical mean July air temperatures >19.5 °C. Our results suggest that predicted changes in temperature over the next century might reduce the range of mink frogs in New York, yet we hypothesize that any such reductions could be mitigated by generation of suitable breeding habitat associated with future expansion of beaver populations.     

Assessing habitat use of the endangered marine mollusc Patella ferruginea (Gastropoda, Patellidae) in northern Africa: preliminary results and implications for conservation

The limpet Patella ferruginea Gmelin, 1791, endemic to the Mediterranean, is the most endangered marine species on the list of the European Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the Conservation of Natural Habitat of Wild Fauna and Flora (1992). Its Mediterranean range has progressively contracted to a few restricted areas and the species is now threatened with extinction. Seventeen stations were sampled along the littoral zone on the coast of Ceuta, North Africa, for quantifying environmental factors (water movement, siltation and suspended solids), and 70 transects were selected for P. ferruginea sampling. The study revealed the presence of a well-established population of P. ferruginea with values of density and size of 0.67 individuals m⁻¹ ±0.96 and 48.94 mm±11.61 respectively (mean±standard error of mean). The biggest densities of P. ferruginea were found inside the harbour of Ceuta. The limpets were more abundant on artificial harbour stones than on natural rocky shores, and the areas under the highest human pressure were characterised by the lowest densities and the smallest specimens probably due mainly to the predation for food and fishing. Human pressure is probably the main contributing factor to the currently endangered status of P. ferruginea. Programmes of environmental education to avoid its collection for fishing, food or for fun as decorative objects should be conducted, and further experimental studies dealing with the reproductive biology of this species are needed to properly assess the future programmes of conservation.