Sensitivity of conservation planning to different approaches to using predicted species distribution data

The main role of conservation planning is to design reserve networks to protect biodiversity in situ. Research within the field of conservation planning has focused on the development of theories and tools to design reserve networks that protect biodiversity in an efficient and representative manner. Whilst much progress has been made in this regard, there has been limited assessment of the sensitivity of conservation planning outcomes to uncertainty associated with the datasets used for conservation planning. Predicted species distribution data are commonly used for conservation planning because the alternatives (e.g. survey data) are incomplete or biased spatially. However, there may be considerable uncertainty associated with the use of predicted species distribution data, particularly given the variety of approaches available to generate a dataset from such predictions for use in conservation planning. These approaches range from using the probabilistic data directly to using a threshold identified a priori or a posteriori to convert the probabilistic data to presence/absence data. We assess the sensitivity of conservation planning outcomes to different uses of predicted species distribution data. The resulting reserve networks differed, and had different expected species representation. The choice of approach will depend on how much risk a conservation planner is willing to tolerate and how much efficiency can be sacrificed.     

Modelling trade offs between public and private conservation policies

To reduce global biodiversity loss, there is an urgent need to determine the most efficient allocation of conservation resources. Recently, there has been a growing trend for many governments to supplement public ownership and management of reserves with incentive programs for conservation on private land. At the same time, policies to promote conservation on private land are rarely evaluated in terms of their ecological consequences. This raises important questions, such as the extent to which private land conservation can improve conservation outcomes, and how it should be mixed with more traditional public land conservation. We address these questions, using a general framework for modelling environmental policies and a case study examining the conservation of endangered native grasslands to the west of Melbourne, Australia. Specifically, we examine three policies that involve: (i) spending all resources on creating public conservation areas; (ii) spending all resources on an ongoing incentive program where private landholders are paid to manage vegetation on their property with 5-year contracts; and (iii) splitting resources between these two approaches. The performance of each strategy is quantified with a vegetation condition change model that predicts future changes in grassland quality. Of the policies tested, no one policy was always best and policy performance depended on the objectives of those enacting the policy. This work demonstrates a general method for evaluating environmental policies and highlights the utility of a model which combines ecological and socioeconomic processes.     

Do conservation managers use scientific evidence to support their decision-making?

Conservation involves making decisions on appropriate action from a wide range of options. For conservation to be effective, decision-makers need to know what actions do and do not work. Ideally, decisions should be based on effectiveness as demonstrated by scientific experiment or systematic review of evidence. Can decision-makers get this kind of information? We undertook a formal assessment of the extent to which scientific evidence is being used in conservation practice by conducting a survey of management plans and their compilers from major conservation organizations within the UK. Data collected suggest that the majority of conservation actions remain experience-based and rely heavily on traditional land management practices because, many management interventions remain unevaluated and, although some evidence exists, much is not readily accessible in a suitable form. We argue that nature conservation along with other fields of applied ecology, should exploit the concept of evidence-based practice developed and used in medicine and public health that aims to provide the best available evidence to the decision-maker(s) on the likely outcomes of alternative actions. Through critical evaluation, we present the challenges and benefits of adopting evidence based practice from the decision-makers point of view and identify the process to be followed to make it work.     

Average optimacity: An index to guide site prioritization for biodiversity conservation

We developed an index, called average optimacity, that can be used to guide site prioritization for biodiversity conservation. Our index has three desirable properties: (1) it indicates a site’s potential contribution to an efficient representative reserve system; (2) it equals zero if and only if a site contains no elements of biodiversity; and (3) it accommodates multiple sets of representation targets. The index is calculated with an optimization algorithm - simulated annealing as implemented in the computer program Marxan. We ran Marxan with 10 different representation target sets and averaged the results. The 10 target sets approximated equal increments in conservation value. Data from the Willamette Valley-Puget Sound-Georgia Basin Ecoregion were used to evaluate the index. To help conservation planners understand average optimacity we: (1) compared it to an average of irreplaceability, a well-known index of conservation value, and (2) used logistic regression models to relate average optimacity to other measures of conservation value (e.g., rarity, richness). Average optimacity and average irreplaceability were highly correlated (Spearman rank correlation = 0.90), suggesting substantial agreement in site prioritization. However, there were clear differences in the rankings of highly valued sites, demonstrating that these two indices provide different perspectives on priorities. Simple regression models showed that average optimacity was strongly associated with maximum representation and maximum rarity. Two of the top multiple regression models for average optimacity exhibited a moderate increase in explanatory power relative to the best simple regression model and had three independent variables, which reflects the multi-dimensional nature of this index. The average optimacity index may be preferable to an irreplaceability index when efficiency is considered an important dimension for site prioritization.     

What do conservation biologists publish?

We provide an overview of publications from three prominent conservation journals (Biodiversity & Conservation, Biological Conservation and Conservation Biology) published in 2001 (n = 547 papers). We found a wide breadth of studies of different topics from different climates and habitats and across a range of spatial scales. Most studies were quantitative (89%) and used inferential statistics (63%). Research was biased towards vertebrates, forests, relatively pristine landscapes, and towards studies of single species and assemblages rather than communities or ecosystems. Despite assertions in the literature that conservation is synthetic, eclectic and multi-disciplinary, few studies were truly cross-disciplinary (13%). In addition, few studies investigated the loss of native vegetation (2%), or specifically studied introduced (4%) or non-threatened species (4%). 20% and 37% of studies had high relevance to policy and management, respectively. However, only 12.6% of studies actively went out to test or review conservation actions. Although many topics are covered in the literature, improvements are possible. We suggest: (1) broadening the number of habitats, taxonomic groups and scales studied and (2) providing closer and clearer links with other disciplines and research approaches, and with policy and management.     

Effects of conservation education on reasons to conserve biological diversity

To examine factors that might influence how people subscribe to different reasons for conserving biological diversity, we modified Ehrenfeld's [American Scientist 64 (1976) 660] classic reasons for conserving species and habitats into consumption, tourism, medicine, science, education, environmental baselines, ecosystem services, intrinsic value, and added another, human cultural heritage. We then explored the opinions of undergraduates enrolled in a classic conservation biology course, or a people and conservation course, about these nine arguments, using a 27-statement questionnaire. By matching responses made before and after each course, we found that students, in general, became more committed to using most of Ehrenfeld's arguments but that this was highly contingent on which conservation course that they had taken. None became committed to the argument that linked wildlife conservation to human culture, however. Course and grade that students attained influenced the extent to which students were sympathetic to different arguments but gender had no effect. These findings show that the type of conservation knowledge imparted to students makes them differentially sympathetic to many of the arguments used to advocate wildlife conservation.     

The sacred commons: Conflicts and solutions of resource management in sacred natural sites

Sacred natural sites are considered an additional pillar for biodiversity conservation, next to the protected areas network. However, sacred landscapes are not primarily conservation areas, but exist for cultural and social reasons. To evaluate their strengths and weaknesses as community-based conservation areas, a thorough understanding of the underlying values, institutional arrangements, and outcomes is required. Here, I use institutional economics for a meta-analysis of publications on sacred natural sites to identify potential conflicts in their maintenance, and to analyze institutional arrangements to solve these conflicts. I show that most sacred natural sites resemble common-pool resources and that many design principles that are linked to common-pool resources are also found in traditional institutions managing sacred places. Design principles are no blue-print solution but they may guide future research to identify locally robust institutional arrangements that are linked to the ecological integrity of sacred natural sites.     

Assisted colonization: Integrating conservation strategies in the face of climate change

Global climate change poses an immense challenge for conservation biologists seeking to mitigate impacts to species and ecosystems. Species persistence will depend on geographic range shifts or adaptation in response to warming patterns as novel climates and community assemblages arise. Assisted colonization has been proposed as a method for addressing these challenges. This technique, which consists of transporting species to a new range that is predicted to be favorable for persistence under future climate scenarios, has become the subject of controversy and discussion in the conservation community due to its highly manipulative nature, questions about widespread feasibility, and uncertainty associated with the likelihood of translocated species becoming invasive. We reviewed the discussion and criticism associated with assisted colonization and sought to identify other conservation techniques that also display potential to promote the colonization and adaptation of species in response to climate change. We propose an integrated conservation strategy that includes management for habitat connectivity, conservation genetics, and when necessary, assisted colonization of species that are still unable to shift their ranges even given implementation of the above standard conservation approaches. We argue that this integrated approach will facilitate persistence for a larger proportion of species than is possible by solely using assisted colonization. Furthermore, a multi-faceted approach will likely reduce the uncertainty of conservation outcomes and will become increasingly necessary for conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate.     

Targeting conservation payments to achieve multiple outcomes

This paper describes an environmental conservation planning model used in Queensland, Australia to purchase agreements on 66 sites covering 81,046 ha at a cost of A$1.9 million. The model was used as part of a competitive tendering program called “NatureAssist”. The model maximises conservation benefit subject to a cost constraint using binary combinatorial optimisation. Multiple criteria analysis (MCA) is used to capture investor preferences and measure benefit over multiple outcomes. Conservation costs are drawn from real market data; i.e. the prices being offered by sellers (landholders) to supply conservation services to a buyer (the government). This study shows the potential strengths, and weaknesses, of taking an MCA approach to select conservation sites in a real market context.     

Plant conservation: old problems, new perspectives

Nature conservation has changed from an idealistic philosophy to a serious technology(J. Harper, 1992)A review is given of the major conceptual changes that have taken place during the last 50 years in our understanding of the nature of plant conservation and of the principal methodological advances in undertaking conservation assessments and actions, largely through the incorporation of tools and techniques from other disciplines. The interrelationships between conservation and sustainable use are considered as well as the impact of the development of the discipline of conservation biology, the effects of the general acceptance of the concept of biodiversity and the practical implications of the implementation of the Convention on Biological diversity. The effect on conservation policy and management of the accelerating loss or conversion of habitats throughout the world and approaches for combating this are discussed.     

Doing more good than harm - Building an evidence-base for conservation and environmental management

The problems of environmental change and biodiversity loss have entered the mainstream political agenda. Given the call from an increasingly influential environmental lobby for government and wider society to make both financial and personal sacrifices to address these problems, it seems likely that conservation biologists and environmental managers will be asked tough questions of the general form ‘are conservation interventions effective?’ and, ‘are they doing more good than harm?’ Science constantly advances and must remain open to challenge, but managers and policy formers require an interim product (an evidence-base) to underpin their current decision-making. The health services have been using the objective and transparent methodology of systematic review to summarise the evidence-base relating to the effectiveness of interventions. Environmental management has, up until now, had no formal shared evidence-base of this kind. Reviewing recent developments in evidence-based practice, this paper introduces a ‘systematic review’ section for this journal and argues that constructing an evidence-based framework for environment management is possible, the challenge is scaling it up to engage the global scientific community. We draw on the history of evidence-based healthcare, but also on the differences between healthcare and conservation, to set out the challenges in creating a Collaboration for Environmental Evidence that develops a library of systematic reviews on the effectiveness of conservation and environmental interventions.     

Comparison of survival rates of captive-reared and wild-bred Mauritius kestrels (Falco punctatus) in a re-introduced population

Re-introduction is a technique widely used in the conservation of threatened bird species. With advances in aviculture the use of captive-produced individuals as the release stock is becoming more commonplace, and ideally, survival of captive-produced, released individuals should be no different from their wild-bred counterparts. During the late 1980s the Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) was successfully re-introduced into the Bambous mountain range, Mauritius, some 30 years after its local extinction. Between 1987 and 2001 the developing population was closely monitored enabling us to construct re-sighting histories for 88 released and 284 wild-bred kestrels. We used age-structured models in the survival analysis software program MARK to determine if an individual's origin influenced its subsequent survival. Our analysis indicated no compelling evidence for reduced survival among juvenile captive-reared and released individuals, relative to their wild-bred counterparts, across the majority of cohorts and only limited evidence of a cohort-specific effect. This study illustrates that despite the lack of a formal experimental approach it is still feasible to conduct an assessment of re-introduction outcomes and techniques.     

Linking cost efficiency evaluation with population viability analysis to prioritize wetland bird conservation actions

Prioritizing management actions for wildlife conservation is a difficult task due to the large number of problems relative to available conservation resources and uncertainty about the benefits arising from numerous potential management actions. In this study we use a cost-efficiency protocol to evaluate and prioritize eight different management actions for waterbird community in wetlands throughout southeastern Spain. The protocol generated an action priority ranking based on the costs and predicted benefits of the actions in terms of waterbird carrying capacity. Action prioritization outcomes were also evaluated using population viability analysis models for two of the study species. Removal of dead bird carcasses to prevent disease outbreaks was identified as the most cost efficient action. Removing lead pellets from the sediment was the least efficient strategy. Our approach highlights the role of detailed risk assessment as a form of quality control on the simpler prioritization protocols. We recommend a two-step prioritization protocol based on (i) a rapid, usually simpler prioritization approach for the bulk of species or values being managed, and (ii) a more sophisticated risk assessment for a subset of the species of interest for which detailed risk assessments are tractable. This process strikes a balance between sophistication and practicality.     

Scheduling conservation action in production landscapes: priority areas in western New South Wales defined by irreplaceability and vulnerability to vegetation loss

Scheduling conservation action is necessary when the available resources for conservation are insufficient to adequately protect all of the natural features (e.g. species, vegetation types, ecosystems) in a region, at least in the short-term. We propose an approach to scheduling conservation action in production landscapes. It is based on two characteristics of potential conservation areas. The first is vulnerability — the likelihood or imminence of destruction or alteration of native vegetation. The second is irreplaceability — the likelihood that an area will be needed to contribute to a set of conservation targets nominated for the region's features. We argue that highest priority for conservation action should go to those areas with both high vulnerability (urgent protection needed to avoid destruction) and high irreplaceability (few or no alternatives if destroyed). To establish the context and rationale for our approach, we review some previous methods for scheduling nature conservation. We then apply our approach to the Western Division of New South Wales, a region of about 325,000 km², by deriving information on the vulnerability of 248 land systems to two threatening processes (clearing and cropping) and measuring the irreplaceability of potential conservation areas. Our results are maps of areas where conservation action is most urgently needed if regional conservation targets are not to be compromised.     

The impact of taxonomic change on conservation: Does it kill, can it save, or is it just irrelevant?

The important question of taxonomy and its impact on conservation efforts was brought to general attention by Robert May in 1990 with a News and Views article in Nature entitled “Taxonomy as destiny.” Taxonomy, however, has built-in instabilities that result in name changes, raising the question of whether name changes have a consistent impact on conservation efforts. Our review investigates three possible outcomes of taxonomic change, namely a positive impact on protection efforts, a hampering impact, or no measurable impact. We address these cases with a review of the relevant literature: specifically, government and conservation agency reports, scientific papers, and the general press, as well as correspondence with biologists active in plant and animal conservation. We found no evidence of a consistent effect of taxonomic change on conservation, although splitting taxa may tend to increase protection, and name changes may have the least effect where they concern charismatic organisms.     

Administrative regions in conservation: Balancing local priorities with regional to global preferences in spatial planning

Site selection, reserve selection, and spatial conservation prioritization are terms that have been used for various algorithms and methods for the spatial allocation of conservation resources. Many of these methods start from the setting of targets or weights for different conservation features. Almost always there is only one set of targets or weights, thus implicitly assuming that priorities stay the same through the entire planning region. However, priorities for biodiversity governance could vary between regions. For example, priorities inside countries could be different from global priorities. Inside a country, different stakeholders could hold different priorities. Thus, priorities could vary between sub-regions while ecological processes, such as connectivity, cross borders without regard to administrative boundaries. Here we describe how it is possible to account for conservation priorities that vary between administrative sub-regions in conservation prioritization. We illustrate how assumptions about selection methods and feature weights can significantly influence the outcome mapping of conservation priority. We also show how placing high emphasis on local considerations reduces the cost-efficiency of the global conservation outcome. Analyses proposed here will be made publicly available in software (Zonation) capable for large-scale high-resolution conservation prioritization.     

不同类型植被的水土保持与涵养水源能力的探讨——以小良热带人工林为例

本文通过对小良热带人工阔叶混交林、桉林、光坡地的地表径流、水土流失、土壤含水量、地下水位的研究，探讨不同植被的水土保持与涵养水源能力的关系，对热带地区侵蚀地治理的植物配置具有指导意义。     

Comparing the potential effectiveness of conservation planning approaches in central North Carolina, USA

We compared four approaches to conservation site selection to protect forest biodiversity in the Triangle Region of North Carolina, USA. Using biological inventory data and an inventory-based conservation plan as benchmarks, we evaluated the potential effectiveness of a focal species plan and three “simple” plans (large forested patches, close to wetlands and riparian areas, diverse forest types). Effectiveness was measured in three ways: the number of inventory elements captured at least once by the plan (representation), the total number of inventory elements captured (completeness), and the proportion of land in the inventory-based plan included (overlap). We further examined the potential effectiveness of the simple plans by calculating their overlap with land identified by the focal species approach. The simple and focal species plans did not differ markedly in terms of representation, but diverged when completeness and overlap were considered. Although representation rates for all four plans were relatively high, lower rates for completeness and overlap raise concerns about long-term viability. The simple plans did not identify the same lands as the focal species plan, and are thus unlikely to provide appropriate habitat for the focal species. Each approach we tested failed to capture some subset of species and communities, highlighting the importance of explicit conservation targets and consideration of ecological processes. Forced to act quickly and with little data, our findings suggest using initially a set of complementary simple plans, each focused on a different habitat type. This should be considered a stopgap measure, however, while more sophisticated plans are constructed, defining explicit conservation targets and considering ecological processes.     

Systematic reserve design as a dynamic process: F-TRAC and the Florida Forever program

Systematic conservation planning has become an important tool for increasing the efficiency of conservation decisions, but many planning efforts result in static plans that may lose relevance over time. We developed a process whereby planning is integrated into the decision-making process and updated every six months in response to conservation actions. The Florida Forever program is a 10-year, $3 billion land acquisition program expected to acquire approximately 1.25 million acres (607,000 ha) for conservation in Florida through the year 2010. With limited funding and duration, the program needs to be able to efficiently protect the most natural resources for a fixed cost, a situation well suited to a systematic reserve design approach. To inform this program, we conducted an assessment of natural resource conservation needs and developed the Florida Forever Tool for Efficient Resource Acquisition and Conservation (F-TRAC), a systematic reserve design analysis based on a simulated annealing site selection algorithm using Marxan software. The analysis considered conservation needs for a variety of natural resources including species, natural communities, high quality watersheds, wetlands, and sustainable forestry. Each 6-month analysis identifies an efficient portfolio of sites for resource protection, given the amount of land area likely remaining to be acquired by the Florida Forever program. The Spring 2004 model portfolio had a cost threshold of 206,308 ha, met conservation targets for 18 of 32 resource conservation features, and identified approximately 116,000 ha outside of current land acquisition projects. This study also demonstrates the use of reserve design results to evaluate existing and proposed land acquisition projects and inform decision makers; and the evaluation of acquisition trends and program success based on potential achievements as indicated by reserve design analyses.     

Conservation justice in metropolitan Cape Town: A study at the Macassar Dunes Conservation Area

Conservation justice, a concept analogous to environmental justice, suggests that local communities are entitled to receive fair treatment and meaningful involvement in the development and implementation of conservation policy. In this study, of an urban conservation project in Cape Town, South Africa, we contribute to the ongoing conversation about the importance of community-based conservation approaches. Conservationists must work to plan and implement projects in ways that are not only acceptable to stakeholders, but inspire local community involvement in achieving conservation goals. Given its location in the impoverished Cape Flats region of metropolitan Cape Town and its unique ecological and conservation value, the Macassar Dunes Conservation Area warrants a conservation justice approach. We conducted semi-structured interviews with members of interested and affected communities, then analyzed stakeholder perspectives on biodiversity protection, fencing, and informal housing. The results suggest that despite disparity among groups in needs and perspectives, conservation projects have potential to deliver tangible benefits to all stakeholder groups. A belief in conservation is universal across stakeholder lines, but contrasting needs and perspectives of the studied groups lead to conflicting views on important issues of implementation. An understanding of different stakeholder groups’ specific needs and interests is therefore essential for successful implementation of sustainable urban conservation projects.