Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: Accounting for detection probability differences

Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.     

Who hits and hoots at whom? Potential for interference competition between barred and northern spotted owls

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is a controversial species in the Pacific Northwest that is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. The barred owl (Strix varia), a species historically restricted to eastern North America, has recently expanded its range to completely overlap that of the northern spotted owl. Recent evidence suggests that barred owls may compete with northern spotted owls and may be one cause for recent declines in some northern spotted owl populations. Our focus was to examine whether barred owls have the potential to competitively exclude northern spotted owls from their territories through interference competition. We used a playback experiment to quantify aggressive vocal and physical behavior of barred and northern spotted owls during territorial defense. Experimental trials consisted of displaying northern spotted or barred owl taxidermy mounts, and broadcasting recorded vocalizations of the corresponding species, in both barred and northern spotted owl territories. The frequency of interspecific interactions was lower compared to intraspecific interactions between northern spotted owls alone. However, barred owls responded with higher levels of vocal and physical aggression than did northern spotted owls when agonistic interspecific interactions occurred. Our results suggest that barred owls are likely to assume the dominant role during interspecific interactions with northern spotted owls. Thus, interference competition is a plausible mechanism by which barred owls could contribute to observed population declines of northern spotted owls in areas where the species co-occur.     

Dynamics of a declining amphibian metapopulation: Survival, dispersal and the impact of climate

Climate can interact with population dynamics in complex ways. In this study we describe how climatic factors influenced the dynamics of an amphibian metapopulation over 12 years through interactions with survival, recruitment and dispersal. Low annual survival of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus) was related to mild winters and heavy rainfall, which impacted the metapopulation at the regional level. Consequently, survival varied between years but not between subpopulations. Despite this regional effect, the four subpopulations were largely asynchronous in their dynamics. Three out of the four subpopulations suffered reproductive failure in most years, and recruitment to the metapopulation relied on one source. Variation in recruitment and juvenile dispersal was therefore probably driving asynchrony in population dynamics. At least one subpopulation went extinct over the 12 year period. These trends are consistent with simulations of the system, which predicted that two subpopulations had an extinction risk of >50% if adult survival fell below 30% in combination with low juvenile survival. Intermittent recruitment may therefore only result in population persistence if compensated for by relatively high adult survival. Mild winters may consequently reduce the viability of amphibian metapopulations. In the face of climate change, conservation actions may be needed at the local scale to compensate for reduced adult survival. These would need to include management to enhance recruitment, connectivity and dispersal.     

Climate change is linked to long-term decline in a stream salamander

Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide and several have been linked to climate change, but the long-term data needed to detect declines are largely restricted to pond-breeding species. This limits our knowledge of population trends in other major groups of amphibians, including stream salamanders, which have their greatest diversity in North America. I hypothesized that increasing air temperature and precipitation in northeastern North America caused abundance of the stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus in a New Hampshire population to decline between 1999 and 2010. I found a significant decline in abundance of G. porphyriticus adults over this 12-year period, and no trend in larval abundance. Adult abundance was negatively related to annual precipitation, which is predicted to increase further in the Northeast due to climate change. Analysis of a 6-year capture–mark–recapture data set for the same population showed no temporal variation in larval and adult detectability, validating the abundance data, and no variation in larval and adult survival. However, survival during metamorphosis from the larval to adult stage declined dramatically. These results suggest that increasing precipitation is causing a decline in adult recruitment, which, if it persists, will lead to local extinction. A likely mechanism for the decline in adult recruitment is mortality of metamorphosing individuals during spring and fall floods, which have increased in volume and frequency with the increase in precipitation. More broadly, this study presents strong evidence that the amphibian decline crisis extends to North America’s stream salamanders, and shows the critical need to collect population data on these species.     

How important is clonal recruitment for population maintenance in rare plant species?: the case of the narrow endemic cactus, Stenocereus eruca, in Baja California, México

Stenocereus eruca is a postrate columnar cactus whose regeneration seems to occur mainly through clonal propagation. It is a narrow endemic species of the Sonoran desert in Baja California Sur and currently considered as threatened under Mexican legislation. In this paper we describe the demography of ramets in four populations along its distribution range and the demography of genets in one population during a 3-year-study period in order to evaluate its conservation status. We also analyze the relative contribution of sexual reproduction and clonal propagation to population maintenance and provide guidelines for the formulation of conservation programs. Elasticity analyses were used to explore the relative contribution of sexual and clonal recruitment to projected population growth rate (λ). During the three years of study, regeneration occurred only through clonal propagation while sexually derived seedlings were not detected within or outside the permanent plots. Our demographic data showed that the four population of S. eruca are in equilibrium (λ ≈ 1), and elasticity analyses showed that the relative contribution to λ of clonal recruitment was larger than sexual recruitment, at least during the analyzed ecological time scale. Simulations showed that removing sexual recruitment had a minor impact on λ, but the absence of clonal propagation alone was sufficient to keep below unity. We propose the establishment of at least one reserve with adequate protection from human disturbance to conserve S. eruca.     

Are edge bird populations doomed to extinction? A retrospective analysis of the common guillemot collapse in Iberia

In the first half of the XXth century, the common guillemot (Uria aalge) was the seabird with the largest breeding population in Atlantic Iberia (ca. 20,000 individuals), the low-latitude limit of the species breeding range. However, this population suffered a dramatic decline and is quasi-extinct at present. The decline was believed to be associated with reduced availability of pelagic prey fish due to climate change. In this study, we analyzed the population change of Iberian guillemots in the second half of the XXth century by means of a retrospective analysis. Our study showed that between 1960 and 1974 the guillemots in Iberia suffered a dramatic population crash (33.3% annual decline) and that subsequently, the population continued to decline at a slower annual rate (13.4%). Simulation models indicated that the factors driving the population crash should be related to adult survival, rather than reproduction. The analysis of environmental and fishery data suggested good climate conditions and higher or sustained availability of pelagic prey fish when the Iberian guillemots crashed. In contrast, relevant human-related factors were affecting adult mortality in that period, specially a rapid and large increase in the number of synthetic fishing nets. During the collapse, no conservation measures were undertaken to mitigate anthropogenic threats and it was assumed, in some extent, that this low-latitude edge population was somehow prone to extinction as a consequence of climate change. This study highlights that to carelessly attribute the decline of rear edge populations to climate change could be highly misleading if the population is suffering from other, particularly human, threats.     

Regional population viability of grassland songbirds: Effects of agricultural management

Although population declines of grassland songbirds in North America and Europe are well-documented, the effect of local processes on regional population persistence is unclear. To assess population viability of grassland songbirds at a regional scale (∼150,000 ha), we quantified Savannah Sparrow Passerculus sandwichensis and Bobolink Dolichonyx oryzivorus annual productivity, adult apparent survival, habitat selection, and density in the four most (regionally) common grassland treatments. We applied these data to a female-based, stochastic, pre-breeding population model to examine whether current grassland management practices can sustain viable populations of breeding songbirds. Additionally, we evaluated six conservation strategies to determine which would most effectively increase population trends. Given baseline conditions, over 10 years, simulations showed a slightly declining or stable Savannah Sparrow population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.99; 95% CI = 1.00-0.989) and severely declining Bobolink population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.753-0.747). Savannah Sparrow populations were sensitive to increases in all demographic parameters, particularly adult survival. However for Bobolinks, increasing adult apparent survival, juvenile apparent survival, or preference by changing habitat selection cues for late-hayed fields (highest quality) only slightly decreased the rate of decline. For both species, increasing the amount of high-quality habitat (late- and middle-hayed) marginally slowed population declines; increasing the amount of low-quality habitat (early-hayed and grazed) marginally increased population declines. Both species were most sensitive to low productivity and survival on early-hayed fields, despite the fact that this habitat comprised only 18% of the landscape. Management plans for all agricultural regions should increase quality on both low- and high-quality fields by balancing habitat needs, nesting phenology, and species’ response to management.     

Dynamics of threatened goldenseal populations and implications for recovery

Goldenseal (Hydrastis canadensis) is a North American perennial clonal herb highly prized for its medicinal value. It is threatened at the northern range limit with only 20 populations known in Canada. To assist recovery planning, 13 populations were sampled to model dynamics. The fate of all ramets in one square-meter was monitored from 1998 to 2001. Transition matrices were built for 2000-2001, using three stage classes based on size and reproductive status. A six-stage pooled matrix, separating established ramets from newly produced ramets, was also constructed. Recruitment by seed was not observed and therefore excluded. The average population growth rate (λ) was 1.062 ± 0.053, which did not significantly differ from the equilibrium value (1.0) suggesting that the northern population is stationary. However, growth rates among population samples varied largely and had wide confidence intervals. Populations with λ-values less than or close to 1.0 require environmental change to increase. Recovery of goldenseal, and possibly other woodland perennials at risk, requires intervention aimed at population size augmentation, habitat optimization, and targeted dispersal.     

Population decline in the epiphytic orchid Aspasia principissa

The population dynamics of the epiphytic orchid Aspasia principissa, growing in the moist tropical forest of Barro Colorado Island, Panama, were studied from 1997 until 2004. Using growth analysis, projection matrix analysis, elasticity analysis, and different types of simulations, we identified the components of the life cycle with the strongest effect on population growth rate (λ), and related differences in vital rates to environmental variation, mainly in precipitation. Such information, which is almost completely lacking for tropical orchids, is essential for the efficient conservation of these frequently rare and endangered plants. Elasticity analysis indicated that the population growth rate (λ), which averaged 0.92, was primarily affected by survival, and much less affected by growth or by sexual reproduction. Simulations, which included different levels of pollinator limitation, showed that complete pollination would raise λ to such an extent as to allow long-term persistence of the population. Pollinator limitation per se, however, is presumably not responsible for the currently observed population decline. Instead, we discuss a possible link between low λ and (a) a long-term decline in precipitation and (b) recent increases in forest dynamics: variation in annual rainfall significantly affected both recruitment and growth rates of smaller orchid individuals, while the hypothesised increase in the rates of branch and tree falls would increase mortality rates in this epiphyte.     

Factors influencing survival and long-term population viability of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus): Implications for conservation

A population viability analysis is important for the management of endangered populations and requires the estimation of survival parameters. The long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) is one of only two native terrestrial mammals currently found in New Zealand and is classed as vulnerable. Its viability in temperate beech (Nothofagus) forest, Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand was estimated using mark-recapture data collected between 1993 and 2003 using the Program MARK. Survival was estimated based on a total of 5286 captures representing 1026 individuals. Overall annual survival varied between 0.34 and 0.83 but varied significantly among three sub-populations and with sex and age. Females generally had a higher survival rate compared to males; and adults had higher survival relative to juveniles. Survival of all bats was lower in years when the number of introduced mammalian predators was high and when the winter temperature was warmer than average. High numbers of introduced predators occurred during three of the 10 years in the study. Climate change may mean that the conditions that promote high predator numbers may occur more frequently. A preliminary population viability analysis using a projection matrix on the overall adult female population showed an average 5% decline per year (λ = 0.95). Increased predator control targeting a range of predators is required in years when their numbers are high in order to halt the decline of this population of long-tailed bats. Population estimates using minimum number alive estimates supported the population estimates derived from Program MARK and a population viability analysis using matrices.     

Remnant sugar maple (Acer saccharum subsp. skutchii) populations at their range edge: Characteristics,environmental constraints and conservation implications in tropical America

Relationships between environmental conditions and persistence of populations at edges of ranges should be useful for predicting consequences of climate change. We characterized environmental conditions of six disjunct sites in Mexico and Guatemala that contain all known relict populations of the most southern subspecies of sugar maple, cloud forest sugar maple (Acer saccharum subsp. skutchii). We also sampled abundance and basal area of all tree species, recording 164 species, 92 genera (61% tropical), and 54 families at these sites. Temperate genera decreased in number from north to south, but mixtures of temperate and tropical species were co-dominant with cloud forest sugar maple at all sites. For all species, basal area was 24–52 m² ha^?1 and density was 990–2986 trees/ha at the six sites. Cloud forest sugar maple comprised 7–43% of total basal area and 1–16% of total densities at each site. Populations of cloud forest sugar maple currently are vulnerable to environmental change. Anthropogenic disturbance is negatively affecting four populations, and regeneration is successfully occurring in only two sites. As a result, densities and basal area are much reduced compared to more northern temperate populations. NMS-ordination indicated that elevation and hurricane frequency are major environmental constraints related to abundance. Maple recruitment is associated with short hurricane return intervals that maintain higher elevation cloud forests in states conducive for regeneration. We establish the conservation status of cloud forest sugar maple at the southern end of its range relative to expected climate change and propose this subspecies be included in the IUCN-Red List.     

Matrix analysis to evaluate sustainability: The tropical tree Aquilaria crassna, a heavily poached source of agarwood

We used size-structured Lefkovitch projection matrix analysis to predict future trends in the survival of Aquilaria crassna (Thymelaeaceae), a tropical evergreen forest tree that has been highly sought after for its valuable aromatic wood (agarwood) for millennia. Data on growth, damage to trees by poachers, fruit production, seed dispersal and seedling recruitment were collected from a 30-ha plot in Khao Yai National Park, central Thailand that had seen moderate poaching. The population asymptotic growth rate, λ_a, and transient growth rate, λ_tr, found from using the matrix to project the observed population 48 years, were 1.002 and 1.005, respectively, with 95% confidence intervals of [0.985, 1.016] and [0.985, 1.023]. The stable size distribution obtained from the matrix was reasonably similar to the observed size distribution, suggesting that at the time of the study the population was not far from equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis and simulations of poaching on adult trees indicate that both λ’s are very sensitive to the removal of adult trees and the growth of preadult trees. In particular, the increase in tree mortality and decrease in preadult growth rate caused by agarwood collection seen in some areas could cause extirpation of the population. While in such cases the population appears to be poised on the brink of decline, several factors that we could not evaluate could alter its fate. First, adult deaths could stimulate recruitment of young under the parent trees; second, there is marked year-to-year variation in fruiting success and possibly recruitment; third, there is considerable spatial variation in tree density and recruitment, suggesting that attempts to evaluate future success need to encompass larger spatial and time scales.     

Responses of cycads with different life histories to the impact of plant collecting: simulation models to determine important life history stages and population recovery times

Collection of plants and seeds from wild populations threatens a large number of cycad species. We investigated to what extent individual life history stages contribute to population growth (λ) and compared two species with major differences in life histories in the African genus Encephalartos: Encephalartos cycadifolius, a highly persistent grassland species that resprouts after fire, and Encephalartos villosus, a relatively fast growing, non-sprouting forest species. Several harvesting scenarios impacting different sized individuals were simulated to determine the sensitivity of the two functional types to harvesting. In both species λ was most sensitive to changes in abundance of adult plants. The harvesting of seeds had minimal impact on population growth rates, whereas harvesting of adult plants led to rapid population decline. This response from two very different functional types suggests that the conservation of adult plants is critical for all cycad species. Despite similar responses to adult mortality, the two species had substantially different population growth rates. This determined recovery time after harvesting of adult individuals. Encephalartos cycadifolius is typical of highly persistent plant species associated with low levels of recruitment and unable to recover from even small losses of adults within a reasonable conservation time frame (<100 years). Our results suggest that the ability to recover from loss of individuals is an important factor that should be considered when assessing the vulnerability of wild populations to threats.     

Relation of soil organic matter concentration to climate and altitude in zonal soils of China

With a total of 886 data sets distributed in different regions of China, the relation of soil organic matter (SOM) concentration to climate and altitude was investigated. These data sets were obtained from the 2nd National Soil Survey of China that was completed in early 1980s. According to climate gradient and vegetation community succession, six geographical regions, including eastern, southern, northern, northeastern, northwestern and southwestern China, were divided to identify the key factors regulating surface SOM concentration in different geographical regions. Correlation analysis indicates that surface SOM concentration is in general negatively correlated with annual mean temperature (T) and positively correlated with annual mean precipitation (P) and altitude (H). A further investigation suggested that multiple regression models with different combination of T, P and H could explain 41.5%–56.2% of the variability in surface SOM concentration for different geographical regions, while the driving variables are different. Variables of T and P determined surface SOM concentration in northern, northeastern and northwestern China. In eastern and southern China, variables of P and H are key factors regulating surface SOM concentration. Surface SOM concentration in southwestern China is determined by a linear combination of T, P and H.     

The case of the missing marmots: Are metapopulation dynamics or range-wide declines responsible?

In the mid-1990s, anecdotal reports of Olympic marmot (Marmota olympus) disappearances from historically occupied locations suggested that the species might be declining. Concern was heightened by the precipitous decline of the Vancouver Island marmot (Marmota vancouverensis), coupled with reports that climate change was affecting other high-elevation species. However, it was unclear whether the Olympic marmot was declining or undergoing natural extinctions and recolonizations; distinguishing between normal metapopulation processes and population declines in naturally fragmented species can be difficult. From 2002-2006, we used multiple approaches to evaluate the population status of the Olympic marmot. We surveyed sites for which there were records indicating regular occupancy in the later half of the 20th century and we conducted range-wide surveys of open high-elevation habitat to establish current and recent distribution. We used these targeted and general habitat surveys to identify locations and regions that have undergone extinctions or colonizations in the past 1-4 decades. Simultaneously, we conducted detailed demographic studies, using marked and radio-tagged marmots, to estimate the observed and projected current population growth rate at nine locations. The habitat surveys indicate that local extinctions have been wide-spread, while no recolonizations were detected. Abundance at most intensive study sites declined from 2002-2006 and the demographic data indicate that these local declines are ongoing. Adult female survival in particular is considerably lower than it was historically. The spatial pattern of the extinctions is inconsistent with observed metapopulation dynamics in other marmot species and, together with very low observed dispersal rates, indicates that population is not at equilibrium.     

Effects of fire on spotted owl site occupancy in a late-successional forest

The spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) is a late-successional forest dependent species that is sensitive to forest management practices throughout its range. An increase in the frequency and spatial extent of stand-replacing fires in western North America has prompted concern for the persistence of spotted owls and other sensitive late-successional forest associated species. However, there is sparse information on the effects of fire on spotted owls to guide conservation policies. In 2004–2005, we surveyed for California spotted owls during the breeding season at 32 random sites (16 burned, 16 unburned) throughout late-successional montane forest in Yosemite National Park, California. Our burned areas burned at all severities, but predominately involved low to moderate fire severity. Based on an information theoretic approach, spotted owl detection and occupancy rates were similar between burned and unburned sites. Nest and roost site occupancy was best explained by a model that combined total tree basal area (positive effect) with cover by coarse woody debris (negative effect). The density estimates of California spotted owl pairs were similar in burned and unburned forests, and the overall mean density estimate for Yosemite was higher than previously reported for montane forests. Our results indicate that low to moderate severity fires, historically common within montane forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, maintain habitat characteristics essential for spotted owl site occupancy. These results suggest that managed fires that emulate the historic fire regime of these forests may maintain spotted owl habitat and protect this species from the effects of future catastrophic fires.     

Importance of the seed bank for population viability and population monitoring in a threatened wetland herb

Although demographic models have become increasingly important tools in plant conservation, few models have considered the implications of seed banks for population persistence. Based on a 15-year study of the threatened herb, Helenium virginicum, we created a stage-class transition matrix to model the population dynamics of the plant. Our goal was to determine the role of the seed bank in population persistence and in the design of monitoring programs for the plant. Using data from marked plants, a long-term study of seed viability, and a seed bank census, we created a deterministic model and three stochastic models. The stochastic models were a model in which yearly correlations among parameters were retained, a model in which parameters were uncorrelated, and a model in which parameters were derived from log-normal distribution. We also constructed a fourth model in which we assumed a minimum seed lifetime consistent with the seed viability data. Both elasticity and perturbation analysis suggested that seed survival within the seed bank had by far the largest effects on the population growth rate (λ), with 47-64% of the change in λ being controlled by seed survival. Correlations among life history parameters had little effect on λ in the original models, but substantially reduced λ (from 0.97 to 0.86) when seed survival was limited. Given the importance of the seed bank and the high yearly variability in adult plant density, we used simulations to compare power to detect declines with seed bank samples versus censuses of adult plants. The power of adult plant censuses was extremely low (13-22%). The power of seed bank censuses was substantially higher (48-59%), but was limited by large pulses of recruitment to the seed bank in good years. Power was only moderately reduced when seeds were sampled every two or four years instead of yearly (from 59% to 48%). Together, our results suggest that seed survival is crucial to persistence of Helenium populations and that future empirical studies should focus on understanding the factors that affect seed survival. In addition, managers should consider seed bank censuses rather than above-ground plants when designing monitoring programs for plants in variable environments where above-ground plants vary greatly from year to year.     

Identifying road mortality threat at multiple spatial scales for semi-aquatic turtles

Prioritizing sites for localized mitigation measures, and forecasting the effect of interventions on an endangered population, requires an understanding of the spatial scales at which threat processes operate. Road mortality is among the greatest threats to semi-terrestrial freshwater turtles due to the group’s life-history traits. Declining throughout much of their range, spotted (Clemmys guttata) and Blanding’s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) are exposed to high road densities and traffic volumes in the northeastern United States. We examine the distribution of roadkill risk for spotted and Blanding’s turtles at three spatial scales. Tortuosity during upland movements was used to predict road-crossing locations at the single-movement scale. A gravity model of wetland-to-wetland interactions was then developed to identify road mortality hot spots at a broader road segment scale. Finally, road-crossing risk was assessed at the scale of focal areas that support distinct populations, using a population viability analysis to evaluate the consequences of road mortality on resident populations. The observed spatial variability of road mortality risk was high for single road crossing movements, limiting the effectiveness of static mitigation measures conducted at this scale. At the broader road segment scale, road mortality hotspots were evident. The demographic risk associated with roads varied widely among discrete populations, with probabilities of extinction over 100-year projections reaching 5.1% for spotted turtles, and 58.8% for Blanding’s turtles. We conclude that conservation interventions are most likely to be effective in mitigating the effects of road mortality when implemented at the road segment and population scales.     

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of population growth to: (1) determine the pattern of growth in these populations, and (2) identify the demographic rates most important to growth. Trend estimates from population models were most similar to trend estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data when models incorporated either a reproductive or survival event. These events randomly increased fecundity or survival, respectively, to their empirical maxima on average once every 5 years. Reproductive events improved estimates on areas dominated by mixed mesophytic forest, while survival events characterized population growth on oak (Quercus spp.)-dominated sites. The finite rate of increase (λ) was most sensitive to brood survival followed by adult and juvenile non-breeding survival on most sites. However, brood survival was low (<0.35 female chicks/hen survived to week 5), and elasticity analyses indicated λ responded more strongly to proportionate change in non-breeding and breeding survival rates of adults and juveniles than any reproductive variable. Life stage analyses corroborated this result. At baseline values, survival of adults and juveniles may be the main determinants of growth in these populations, and reproduction may not be adequate to compensate for these losses. Therefore, population growth above baseline levels may be regularly needed to restock these populations. Researchers have hypothesized that population dynamics may differ between mixed mesopytic and oak-dominated sites due to differences in forage quality and quantity. Thus, a potential mechanism for the increases in λ needed to sustain populations on mixed mesophytic forest sites is the greater fecundity observed during years with high oak or beech (Fagus grandifolia) mast abundance. The availability of this high quality forage allows hens to enter the breeding season in better condition and realize higher fertility. Alternatively, on oak-dominated sites, population growth increases may also be a product of higher non-breeding survival of birds in mast years, when birds do not need to range as far to forage and can limit their exposure to predators.     

The recent decline of a New Zealand endemic: how and why did populations of Archey's frog Leiopelma archeyi crash over 1996-2001?

Dramatic changes have been documented in New Zealand's vertebrate faunas since human settlement, involving major declines and extinctions, but over recent years few species have declined in numbers so rapidly as the terrestrial Archey's frog Leiopelma archeyi (Anura: Leiopelmatidae). Long-term monitoring over more than 20 years revealed a major population reduction of the species over 1996-2001 and L. archeyi is now classified as Nationally Critical under the New Zealand threat classification system. The decline progressed northwards in the Coromandel ranges, and mostly larger (female) frogs survived. On a 100 m² study plot at Tapu Ridge, annual population estimates averaged 433 frogs (SE ±32) over 1984-1994, declining by 88% to average 53 frogs (SE ±8) over 1996-2002. A mean annual survival rate of 82% for most years declined to 33% over 1994-1997. There is mounting evidence to suggest that disease is the major agent of decline, supported by (1) the rapidity and severity of decline, (2) the progressive (south to north) nature of decline, and (3) finding frogs with chytriodiomycosis from Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis at the time of decline. Surprisingly, sympatric populations of the semi-aquatic Leiopelma hochstetteri have not declined dramatically, nor has a western population of L. archeyi at Whareorino, despite chytridiomycosis occurring in some frogs there. Sustaining and restoring populations of L. archeyi in New Zealand raises major challenges for conservation management.