Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: Accounting for detection probability differences

Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.     

Conserving marginal populations of the food plant (Impatiens noli-tangere) of an endangered moth (Eustroma reticulatum) in a changing climate

Impatiens noli-tangere is scarce in the UK and probably only native to the Lake District and Wales. It is the sole food plant for the endangered moth Eustroma reticulatum. Significant annual fluctuations in the size of I. noli-tangere populations endanger the continued presence of E. reticulatum in the UK. In this study, variation in population size was monitored across native populations of I. noli-tangere in the English Lake District and Wales. In 1998, there was a crash in the population size of all metapopulations in the Lake District but not of those found in Wales. A molecular survey of the genetic affinities of samples in 1999 from both regions and a reference population from Switzerland was performed using AFLP and ISSR analyses. The consensus UPGMA dendrogram and a PCO scatter plot revealed clear differentiation between the populations of I. noli-tangere in Wales and those in the Lake District. Most of the genetic variation in the UK (H_T=0.064) was partitioned between (G_ST=0.455) rather than within (H_S=0.034) regions, inferring little gene flow occurs between regions. There was similar bias towards differentiation between metapopulations in Wales, again consistent with low levels of interpopulation gene flow. This contrasts with far lower levels of differentiation in the Lake District which suggests modest rates of gene flow may occur between populations. It is concluded that in the event of local extinction of sites or populations, reintroductions should be restricted to samples collected from the same region. We then surveyed climatic variables to identify those most likely to cause local extinctions. Climatic correlates of population size were sought from two Lake District metapopulations situated close to a meteorological station. A combination of three climatic variables common to both sites explained 81-84% of the variation in plant number between 1990 and 2001. Projected trends for these climatic variables were used in a Monte Carlo simulation which suggested an increased risk of I. noli-tangere population crashes by 2050 at Coniston Water, but not at Derwentwater. Implications of these findings for practical conservation strategies are explored.     

Scots pine litter decomposition along drainage succession and soil nutrient gradients in peatland forests, and the effects of inter-annual weather variation

Peatlands form a large carbon (C) pool but their C sink is labile and susceptible to changes in climate and land-use. Some pristine peatlands are forested, and others have the potential: the amount of arboreal vegetation is likely to increase if soil water levels are lowered as a consequence of climate change. On those sites tree litter dynamics may be crucial for the C balance. We studied the decomposition of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) needle and root litter in boreal peatland sites representing gradients in drainage succession (succession following water level drawdown caused by forest drainage) and soil nutrient level during several years of varying weather conditions. Neither gradient had an unambiguous effect on litter mass loss. Mass loss over 2 years was faster in undrained versus drained sites for both needle litter, incubated in the moss layer, and fine root litter, incubated in 0-10 cm peat layer, suggesting moisture stress in the surface layers of the drained sites limited decomposition. Differences among the drained sites were not consistent. Among years, mass loss correlated positively with precipitation variables, and mostly negatively or not at all with temperature sum. We concluded that a long-term water level drawdown in peatlands does not necessarily enhance decay of fresh organic matter. Instead, the drained site may turn into a ‘large hummock-system’ where several factors, including litter quality, relative moisture deficiency, higher acidity, lower substrate temperature, and in deeper layers also oxygen deficiency, may interact to constrain organic matter decomposition. Further, the decomposition rates may not vary systematically among sites of different soil nutrient levels following water level drawdown. Our results emphasize the importance of annual weather variations on decomposition rates, and demonstrate that single-period incubation studies incorporate an indeterminable amount of temporal variation.     

Population genetic structure in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Hudson Bay, Canada: Implications of future climate change

The primary habitat for polar bears is sea ice, yet unlike most of the high Arctic, Hudson Bay undergoes a summer ice-free period that forces all bears ashore until ice forms again in fall. Polar bear populations in the greater Hudson Bay region have been placed in four management units based primarily on data from tag returns from harvested animals, capture-recapture studies, and conventional and satellite telemetry. Our results indicate that there is a high level of gene flow among management units observed using 26 microsatellite loci and analysis of genetic profiles of 377 polar bears. However, individual-based Bayesian analysis identified population genetic structuring into three clusters and significant F_ST differentiation. Specifically, our data suggest differentiation of polar bears sampled from islands in James Bay. These results were in spite of the extensive dispersal capabilities of polar bears that could homogenize the population. Mapping of high-ancestry individuals suggests that two of the three clusters have foci in southern Hudson Bay and may be a result of predictable annual freeze-thaw patterns that are maintaining breeding ‘groups’. Predicted changes in the distribution and duration of sea ice in Hudson Bay suggest that gene flow among these clusters may be reduced in the future.     

Post-breeding season distribution of black-footed and Laysan albatrosses satellite-tagged in Alaska: Inter-specific differences in spatial overlap with North Pacific fisheries

We integrated satellite-tracking data from black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes; n = 7) and Laysan albatrosses captured in Alaska (Phoebastria immutabilis; n = 18) with data on fishing effort and distribution from commercial fisheries in the North Pacific in order to assess potential risk from bycatch. Albatrosses were satellite-tagged at-sea in the Central Aleutian Islands, Alaska, and tracked during the post-breeding season, July-October 2005 and 2006. In Alaskan waters, fishing effort occurred almost exclusively within continental shelf and slope waters. Potential fishery interaction for black-footed albatrosses, which most often frequented shelf-slope waters, was greatest with sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) longline and pot fisheries and with the Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepsis) longline fishery. In contrast, Laysan albatrosses spent as much time over oceanic waters beyond the continental shelf and slope, thereby overlapping less with fisheries in Alaska than black-footed albatrosses. Regionally, Laysan albatrosses had the greatest potential fishery interaction with the Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius) trawl fishery in the Western Aleutian Islands and the sablefish pot fishery in the Central Aleutian Islands. Black-footed albatrosses ranged further beyond Alaskan waters than Laysan albatrosses, overlapping west coast Canada fisheries and pelagic longline fisheries in the subarctic transition domain; Laysan albatrosses remained north of these pelagic fisheries. Due to inter-specific differences in oceanic distribution and habitat use, the overlap of fisheries with the post-breeding distribution of black-footed albatrosses is greater than that for Laysan albatrosses, highlighting inter-specific differences in potential vulnerability to bycatch and risk of population-level impacts from fisheries.     

Biotic effects of climate change in urban environments: The case of the grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) in Melbourne, Australia

Urban climates are known to differ from those of the surrounding rural areas, as human activities in cities lead to changes in temperature, humidity and wind regimes. These changes can in turn affect the geographic distribution of species, the behaviour of animals and the phenology of plants. The grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) is a large, nomadic bat from eastern Australia that roosts in large colonies known as camps. Historically a warm temperate to tropical species, P. poliocephalus recently established a year-round camp in the Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne. Using a bioclimatic analysis, we demonstrated that on the basis of long-term data, Melbourne does not fall within the climatic range of other P. poliocephalus camp sites in Australia. Melbourne is drier than other summer camps, and cooler and drier than other winter camps. The city also receives less radiation, in winter and annually, than the other summer and winter camps of P. poliocephalus. However, we found that temperatures in central Melbourne have been increasing since the 1950s, leading to warmer conditions and a reduction in the number of frosts. In addition, artificial watering of parks and gardens in the city may contribute the equivalent of 590 mm (95% CI: 450-720 mm) of extra rainfall per year. It appears that human activities have increased temperatures and effective precipitation in central Melbourne, creating a more suitable climate for camps of the grey-headed flying-fox. As demonstrated by this example, anthropogenic climate change is likely to complicate further the task of conserving biological diversity in urban environments.     

Maximizing re-introduction success: Assessing the immediate cost of release in a threatened waterfowl

Translocations have become one of the most commonly used tools for biodiversity restoration worldwide, however one out of three re-introduction plans fails to create a viable population or to successfully reinforce the existing one. We used results from the analysis of individual-based information on the re-introduction of a threatened waterfowl species, the crested coots Fulica cristata, to provide guidelines to maximise re-introduction success. We found that about a third of the post-release mortality took place within the first month after release. This immediate ‘cost of release’ in terms of local survival or ‘release risk factor’ seems to be a common feature of re-introduction projects, and it is likely due to the inexperience of captive-born individuals to face the new environment. This hypothesis was supported by the positive association between survival and time spent in the wild Results suggested that coots released between February and May have a slightly higher survival. A joint measure of survival and breeding probabilities indicated that birds released in late winter (February-March) had a higher chance to survive and reproduce compared to birds released later in the year. From an applied perspective our results can be used within an adaptive management framework to determine the optimum period of release, providing substantial support for future decision-making in the management of waterfowl, and other long-term projects of re-introduction of threatened vertebrate species.     

Long-term soil organic carbon dynamics in a subhumid tropical climate: C data in mixed C3/C4 cropping and modeling with ROTHC

Scanty information on long-term soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics hampers validation of SOC models in the tropics. We observed SOC content changes in a 16-year continuously cropped agroforestry experiment in Ibadan, south-western Nigeria. SOC levels declined in all treatments. The decline was most pronounced in the no-tree control treatments with continuous maize and cowpea cropping, where SOC levels dropped from the initial 15.4 to 7.3-8.0 Mg C ha⁻¹ in the 0-12 cm topsoil in 16 years. In the two continuously cropped alley cropping (AC) systems, one with Leucaena leucocephala and one with Senna siamea trees, SOC levels dropped to 10.7-13.2 Mg C ha⁻¹. Compared to the no-tree control treatments, an annual application of an additional 8.5 Mg ha⁻¹ (dry matter) of plant residues, mainly tree prunings, led to an extra 3.5 Mg C ha⁻¹ (∼0.2% C) in the 0-12 cm top soil after 11 years, and 4.1 Mg C ha⁻¹ after 16 years. The addition of NPK fertilizer had little effect on the quantities of above-ground plant residues returned to the soil, and there was no evidence that the fertilizer affected the rate of SOC decomposition. The fact that both C₃ and C₄ plants returned organic matter to the soil in all cropping systems, but in contrasting proportions, led to clear contrasts in the ¹³C abundance in the SOC. This ¹³C information, together with the measured SOC contents, was used to test the ROTHC model. Decomposition was very fast, illustrated by the fact that we had to double all decomposition rate constants in the model in order to simulate the measured contrasts in SOC contents and δ¹³C between the AC treatments and the no-tree controls. We hypothesized (1) that the pruning materials from the legume trees and/or the extra rhizodeposition from the tree roots in the AC treatments accelerated the decomposition of the SOC present at the start of the experiment (true C-priming), and/or (2) that the physical protection of microbial biomass and metabolites by the clay fraction on this site, having a sandy top soil in which clay minerals are mainly of the 1:1 type, is lower than assumed by the model.     

Interactions between climate, beaver activity, and pond occupancy by the cold-adapted mink frog in New York State, USA

Mink frogs (Rana septentrionalis) are cold-adapted, climate-sensitive amphibians occurring above the 43rd parallel in North America. We conducted repeated night call surveys at 46 ponds near the southern edge of the species’ range to collect presence/absence data and used information-theoretic models to relate pond occupancy to historical climate and habitat factors. Mink frog occurrence was strongly and positively influenced by pond size (>1.5 ha) and the presence of beavers (Castor canadensis). Presence of calling mink frogs decreased sharply at sites with historical mean July air temperatures >19.5 °C. Our results suggest that predicted changes in temperature over the next century might reduce the range of mink frogs in New York, yet we hypothesize that any such reductions could be mitigated by generation of suitable breeding habitat associated with future expansion of beaver populations.     

Controls over pathways of carbon efflux from soils along climate and black spruce productivity gradients in interior Alaska

Small changes in C cycling in boreal forests can change the sign of their C balance, so it is important to gain an understanding of the factors controlling small exports like water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) fluxes from the soils in these systems. To examine this, we estimated WSOC fluxes based on measured concentrations along four replicate gradients in upland black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] BSP) productivity and soil temperature in interior Alaska and compared them to concurrent rates of soil CO₂ efflux. Concentrations of WSOC in organic and mineral horizons ranged from 4.9 to 22.7 g C m⁻² and from 1.4 to 8.4 g C m⁻², respectively. Annual WSOC fluxes (4.5-12.0 g C m⁻² y⁻¹) increased with annual soil CO₂ effluxes (365-739 g C m⁻² y⁻¹) across all sites (R²=0.55, p=0.02), with higher fluxes occurring in warmer, more productive stands. Although annual WSOC flux was relatively small compared to total soil CO₂ efflux across all sites (<3%), its relative contribution was highest in warmer, more productive stands which harbored less soil organic carbon. The proportions of relatively bioavailable organic fractions (hydrophilic organic matter and low molecular weight acids) were highest in WSOC in colder, low-productivity stands whereas the more degraded products of microbial activity (fulvic acids) were highest in warmer, more productive stands. These data suggest that WSOC mineralization may be a mechanism for increased soil C loss if the climate warms and therefore should be accounted for in order to accurately determine the sensitivity of boreal soil organic C balance to climate change.     

Red alder (Alnus rubra) alters community-level soil microbial function in conifer forests of the Pacific Northwest, USA

Nitrogen-fixing tree species have been shown to improve site fertility and increase N transformation rates, but the influence of N-fixing plants on the soil microbial community as a whole is largely unknown. We used patterns of individual carbon-source utilization and enzyme activities to assess the relative effects of N-fixing red alder on the soil microbial community in three adjacent stands (pure conifer, mixed alder-conifer, and pure alder) of a highly productive coastal Oregon forest where the density of red alder has been experimentally manipulated for over 65 years. Two major patterns were revealed: (1) bacterial and fungal carbon-source utilization patterns in soil from pure conifer stands were significantly different from both pure alder soils and mixed conifer-alder soils, while there was no difference in substrate utilization patterns between soils from the mixed alder-conifer and pure alder stands; and (2) the activities of nine extracellular enzymes involved in ligno-cellulose degradation and the mineralization of organic nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate compounds were all significantly greater in pure alder soils compared to either pure conifer or mixed conifer-alder soils. Our results show that, in addition to an overall increase in soil fertility, microbial biomass, and microbial activity, the presence of N-fixing red alder significantly alters the physiological profile of the microbial community-even in an ecosystem already of high N status.     

Distribution and environmental limitations of an amphibian pathogen in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Amphibian populations continue to be imperiled by the chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Understanding where B. dendrobatidis (Bd) occurs and how it may be limited by environmental factors is critical to our ability to effectively conserve the amphibians affected by Bd. We sampled 1247 amphibians (boreal toads and surrogates) at 261 boreal toad (Bufo boreas) breeding sites (97 clusters) along an 11° latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains to determine the distribution of B. dendrobatidis and examine environmental factors, such as temperature and elevation, that might affect its distribution. The fungus was detected at 64% of all clusters and occurred across a range of elevations (1030-3550 m) and latitudes (37.6-48.6°) but we detected it in only 42% of clusters in the south (site elevations higher), compared to 84% of clusters in the north (site elevations lower). Maximum ambient temperature (daily high) explained much of the variation in Bd occurrence in boreal toad populations and thus perhaps limits the occurrence of the pathogen in the Rocky Mountains to areas where climatic conditions facilitate optimal growth of the fungus. This information has implications in global climate change scenarios where warming temperatures may facilitate the spread of disease into previously un- or little-affected areas (i.e., higher elevations). This study provides the first regional-level, field-based effort to examine the relationship of environmental and geographic factors to the distribution of B. dendrobatidis in North America and will assist managers to focus on at-risk populations as determined by the local temperature regimes, latitude and elevation.     

Population baseline data for monitoring genetic diversity loss for 2010: A case study for Brassica species in the UK

The Convention on Biological Diversity and the subsequent International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture have proved a watershed in plant genetic resources (PGR) conservation and consequent initiatives have set various PGR conservation targets to be met by 2010. The aim of our paper is to develop ideas and issues concerning the monitoring of natural genetic resources: particularly in terms of developing a baseline from which to measure levels of genetic diversity. Three species of Brassica (B. nigra, B. oleracea, B. rapa) found wild in the UK were assessed for levels of genetic diversity using AFLP. The relationship between genetic distribution and ecogeographic distribution was considered for each species to determine patterns that may be useful in formulating conservation strategies. Genetic distance between populations of B. nigra and B. rapa were correlated to geographic distance. Levels of genetic polymorphism in B. oleracea were correlated to soil pH while in B. rapa they were correlated to soil coarseness. In terms of PGR conservation these findings may suggest an emphasis toward in situ conservation of a selection of disparate populations would be appropriate where possible as such adaptations may be lost in ex situ collections.     

Migratory routes of short-tailed albatrosses: Use of exclusive economic zones of North Pacific Rim countries and spatial overlap with commercial fisheries in Alaska

We conducted a satellite tracking study of the endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus) to determine post-breeding season distribution, the amount of time spent within exclusive economic zones of Pacific Rim countries, and assess factors affecting spatial and temporal overlap with commercial fisheries in Alaska. We obtained 6709 locations for 14 albatrosses (131-808 locations and 51-138 days of tracking per bird). Albatrosses ranged widely throughout the North Pacific Rim, spending the majority of time within the exclusive economics zones of Japan, Russia (Kuril Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula), and the United States (Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea, Alaska). We found evidence for gender and age-related differences in distribution and, therefore, potential interaction with regional fisheries. Overall, albatrosses spent the greatest proportion of time within the Alaska exclusive economic zone. Within Alaska, albatrosses occurred most frequently in fishery management zones that encompassed the Aleutian Islands, Bering Sea, and south of the Alaska Peninsula. Short-tailed albatrosses had the greatest potential overlap with fisheries that occurred along continental shelf break and slope regions, e.g., longlining for sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria), where albatrosses occurred most often. Some birds, however, also made frequent excursions onto the extensive Bering Sea shelf, suggesting significant potential for interactions with the large-scale walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) fisheries. Alaskan longline fishing fleets have been proactive in using seabird deterrent devices, however, our data further emphasize that such efforts beyond the Alaska exclusive economic zone would provide a greater conservation benefit for this species.     

The western Pacific red lionfish, Pterois volitans (Scorpaenidae), in Florida: Evidence for reproduction and parasitism in the first exotic marine fish established in state waters

Many exotic fresh-water and brackish-water fish species have become established in Florida waters, but the red lionfish is the first entirely marine species that appears to have become established here. We give a detailed account of the initial collections of adult specimens from off St. Augustine and Jacksonville, including data on morphometrics, meristics, and gonad histology. Our review of historical sightings on Florida reefs and of the specimens reported herein suggests that the most plausible vector for the introduction of this fish was aquarium releases. We discuss our reasons for concluding that this species has probably become established in Florida, summarize the potential danger that these venomous fishes pose to the public, and examine the effect of a parasite hosted by the male lionfish. We also consider the potential effect of the red lionfish on marine communities in Florida, but limited information on its biology precludes a detailed assessment.     

Autumn swarming behaviour of Natterer’s bats in the UK: Population size, catchment area and dispersal

Many species of temperate bats visit underground sites in autumn, prior to hibernation, and chase each other in and around the entrances in an event known as autumn swarming. It has been suggested that swarming is a mating event that facilitates gene flow between bats from otherwise isolated summer colonies. We describe swarming behaviour at a cluster of four caves in the North of England and provide direct evidence for seasonal migration of Natterer’s bats (Myotis nattereri ) between these caves and many summer nursery roosts in a catchment area of at least 60 km radius. Mark-recapture analysis suggests that an estimated 2000-6000 Natterer’s bats use the three best-studied caves, together with smaller numbers of four other species: M. daubentonii, M. brandtii, M. mystacinus and Plecotus auritus. Recaptures also show that there is a small interchange of bats between these three caves, which are 0.6-1.5 km apart. Capture rates, automatic logging and video recordings at one cave suggest that an average 310-400 bats visit the cave each night. Mating at swarming sites would be particularly important for gene flow if a species showed no other dispersal pattern. We provide evidence for natal philopatry, with little or no dispersal, in both sexes of Natterer’s bats. The protection of swarming sites is discussed in light of our findings.     

Population demography and fecundity do not decline with habitat fragmentation in the rainforest tree Macadamia integrifolia (Proteaceae)

Habitat fragmentation is often associated with reduced levels of fitness and local extinction of plant species, and consequently poses a major threat to the persistence of species worldwide. The majority of demography-based fragmentation studies to date have focussed primarily on fragmentation impacts on individual plant fecundity. Here we investigate the impact of habitat fragmentation on the demography (plant height classes and density) and key population dynamic processes for the rainforest tree species Macadamia integrifolia (Proteaceae). Raceme and fruit production and seedling emergence across fragmented sites exceeded that in more intact sites with no apparent difference in short-term mortality rates. Fecundity of flowering trees did not appear to be affected by fragmentation. Instead, overall reproductive output in fragmented sites was enhanced relative to undisturbed sites due to a higher proportion of reproductively active individuals. The probability of flowering and fruiting was negatively correlated with the projected foliage cover (PFC) surrounding individual trees, and average PFC was significantly lower in small and medium fragments, suggesting light availability as a potential contributor to the trends observed here.This study demonstrates that the short-term effects of habitat fragmentation on population viability may not necessarily be detrimental for some species, and highlights the importance of assessing not only the fecundity of flowering individuals but also the proportion of individuals reproducing within fragments.     

Extirpation and reintroduction of fishers (Martes pennanti) in Oregon: implications for their conservation in the Pacific states

Prior to extensive European settlement, the fisher (Martes pennanti) occupied most coniferous forest habitats in Washington, Oregon, and California. Human activities since that time have resulted in the apparent extirpation of fishers throughout much of their historical range in the Pacific states. Fisher extirpations in California and Washington have been documented previously, but no comprehensive assessments of the distribution of fishers in Oregon, the history of their translocation into Oregon, or the conservation of fishers in the Pacific states have been conducted. Our objectives are to (1) review historical information on potential causes for fisher population losses in Oregon, (2) document the history of their translocation into Oregon, (3) describe the distribution of fishers in Oregon relative to those translocations and determine if any were successful, and (4) discuss the implications of our findings for the conservation of fishers in the Pacific states. Our results show that extant populations of fishers in Oregon are restricted to two disjunct and genetically isolated populations in the southwestern portion of the state: one in the southern Cascade Range and one in the northern Siskiyou Mountains. In addition, historical changes in the distribution of fisher occurrence records in Oregon and geographic variation in the genetic composition and size of fishers occurring in southwestern Oregon, show that the population in the southern Cascade Range is reintroduced and is descended from fishers that were translocated to Oregon from British Columbia and Minnesota. The loss of fisher populations from central and northern Oregon and throughout Washington has resulted in the isolation of extant populations in Oregon by >650 km from those occurring in southern British Columbia. Our results demonstrate that the historical continuity in fisher distribution that once provided for genetic interchange among fisher populations in the Pacific states no longer exists.     

Metapopulation dynamics and conservation of the marsh fritillary butterfly: Population viability analysis and management options for a critically endangered species in Western Europe

This study investigates the dynamics and viability of a marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia metapopulation in a Belgian successional landscape. Based on capture-mark-recapture and winter nest census data, we first estimated demography (survival and recruitment rates, population size, density dependence) and dispersal parameters (emigration rate, effect of patch connectivity on dispersal, mortality during dispersal). Then using RAMAS/GIS platform, we parameterised a population viability analysis (PVA) model with these parameters to simulate the future of this metapopulation under different scenarios.The metapopulation does not seem viable even if natural reforestation is controlled by adequate management. In its present state, the patch system is not able to sustain enough individuals: due to the large temporal fluctuations in demographic parameters, a carrying capacity far higher than currently would be necessary to limit extinction risk to 1%, suggesting the existence of an extinction debt for the species in Belgium. The situation of E. aurinia appears much worse compared to two other fritillary species threatened in Belgium, for which similar PVA are available. It is therefore urgent to increase the carrying capacity of the patch system. How and where it is achieved are of secondary importance for the gain in viability: improvement of habitat quality through restoration, or increase of habitat quantity via enlargement of existing patches and/or creation of new habitat in the matrix. A regime of management based on regular re-opening and maintenance of habitat patches may be the only guarantee of long-term persistence for this critically endangered species in Belgium.     

Assessing habitat use of the endangered marine mollusc Patella ferruginea (Gastropoda, Patellidae) in northern Africa: preliminary results and implications for conservation

The limpet Patella ferruginea Gmelin, 1791, endemic to the Mediterranean, is the most endangered marine species on the list of the European Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the Conservation of Natural Habitat of Wild Fauna and Flora (1992). Its Mediterranean range has progressively contracted to a few restricted areas and the species is now threatened with extinction. Seventeen stations were sampled along the littoral zone on the coast of Ceuta, North Africa, for quantifying environmental factors (water movement, siltation and suspended solids), and 70 transects were selected for P. ferruginea sampling. The study revealed the presence of a well-established population of P. ferruginea with values of density and size of 0.67 individuals m⁻¹ ±0.96 and 48.94 mm±11.61 respectively (mean±standard error of mean). The biggest densities of P. ferruginea were found inside the harbour of Ceuta. The limpets were more abundant on artificial harbour stones than on natural rocky shores, and the areas under the highest human pressure were characterised by the lowest densities and the smallest specimens probably due mainly to the predation for food and fishing. Human pressure is probably the main contributing factor to the currently endangered status of P. ferruginea. Programmes of environmental education to avoid its collection for fishing, food or for fun as decorative objects should be conducted, and further experimental studies dealing with the reproductive biology of this species are needed to properly assess the future programmes of conservation.