How much is enough? Landscape-scale conservation for the Florida panther

The Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) is an endangered, wide-ranging predator whose habitat needs conflict with a rapidly growing human population. Our goal was to identify specific regions of the south Florida landscape that are of high conservation value to support a self-sustaining panther population. We used compositional and Euclidean distance analyses to determine relative importance of various land cover types as panther habitat and to investigate the role of forest patch size in habitat selection. A model of landscape components important to Florida panther habitat conservation was created. The model was used in combination with radio telemetry records, home range overlaps, land use/land cover data, and satellite imagery to delineate Primary and Secondary zones that would comprise a landscape mosaic of cover types sufficient to support a self-sustaining population. The Primary Zone generally supports the present population and is of highest conservation value, while the Secondary Zone is of lesser value but could accommodate expansion of the population given sufficient habitat restoration. Least-cost path models identified important landscape linkages, and model results were used to delineate a Dispersal Zone to accommodate future panther dispersal outside of south Florida. We determined that the three habitat zones could support 80-94 panthers, a population likely to persist and remain stable for 100 years, but that would be subject to continued genetic problems. The Primary, Dispersal and Secondary zones comprise essential components of a landscape-scale conservation plan for the protection of a viable Florida panther population in south Florida. Assessments of potential impacts of developments should strive to achieve no net loss of landscape function or carrying capacity for panthers within the Primary Zone or throughout the present range of the Florida panther.     

Successful reintroductions of the endangered long-lived Sargent’s cherry palm, Pseudophoenix sargentii, in the Florida Keys

The 1991-1994 reintroductions of Florida endangered Pseudophoenix sargentii to 13 Florida Keys sites represent a rare example of a successful multi-agency long-term effort to conserve a long-lived palm. To assess reintroduction success, we compared population demographics with and without reintroduced plants and conducted population viability analyses. Since 1991, the wild population has increased 6.4-fold. Survival from 2000-2004 was 94%, growth was positive (λ = 1.013), and there was no predicted extinction risk. Recent wild population growth is attributed to good seedling recruitment and removing the greatest threats. After 14 years, reintroductions had 43% survival, increased total plants in the wild by 27%, and expanded the species’ distribution. Reintroduced plants had faster maturation rates, improved population age structure, and enhanced population growth (λ = 1.032). Success varied with transplant year, location, microsite, and original transplant size. Failures in 1991 and at some historic sites emphasize the need for a multi-year, multi-site approach to reintroductions to buffer against stochastic losses. Rockland hammocks and the tops of coastal berms had greatest plant growth and survival. Large transplants had the greatest survival. Because no reintroduced plants are reproductive, transitions between stages are extremely slow, and plants may require >30 years to mature, continued institutional dedication to long-term monitoring will be required to assess whether the populations are self-sustaining. Horticultural expertise and ex situ collections complimented support of land managing agencies for the species’ preservation. These first rare plant reintroductions to Florida State Parks opened avenues for more plant conservation efforts and public interpretation.     

Dynamics of a black bear population within a desert metapopulation

Understanding metapopulation dynamics in large carnivores with naturally fragmented populations is difficult because of the large temporal and spatial context of such dynamics. We coupled a long-term database of visitor sighting records with an intensive 3-year telemetry study to describe population dynamics of recolonization by black bears (Ursus americanus) of Big Bend National Park in Texas during 1988-2002. This population, which occurs within a metapopulation in western Texas and northern Mexico, increased from a single pair of known breeding-age animals in 1988 to 29 bears (including 6 females of breeding age) in March 2000 (λ = 1.25/year). A migration and dispersal event in August-December 2000 reduced the population to 2 adult females and as few as 5-7 individuals. One-way movement distances from the study area during this event averaged 76 km for females (n = 7) and 92 km for males (n = 4), and 3 animals conducted migrations of at least 154, 178, and 214 km, respectively. Our observations exemplify the importance of stochastic events on demographics of small populations and highlight the potential scale of bear movement among montane islands of southwestern North America. They also provide insight into the use of dispersal data in parameterizing metapopulation models for large carnivores.     

Aerial surveying of the world’s largest leatherback turtle rookery: A more effective methodology for large-scale monitoring

For many marine megavertebrate species it is challenging to derive population estimates and knowledge on habitat use needed to inform conservation planning. For marine turtles, the logistics required to undertake comprehensive ground-based censuses, across wide spatial and temporal scales, are often insurmountable. This frequently leads to an approach where a limited number of index nesting beaches are monitored in great detail by foot. In this study we use nationwide aerial surveying interfaced with ground assessments across three seasons of leatherback turtle nesting in Gabon (Equatorial West Africa), highlighting the importance of a synoptic approach to marine turtle monitoring. These surveys allow the first complete population assessment of this nesting aggregation to be made, identifying it as the world’s largest for the species (36,185-126,480 clutches, approximating to 5865-20,499 breeding females per annum and a total estimate of 15,730 to 41,373 breeding females). Our approach also serendipitously provides insights into the spatial appropriateness of Gabon’s protected areas network, for example (mean ± 1SD) 79 ± 6% (range 67-86%) of leatherback turtle activities recorded during aerial surveys (n = 8) occurred within protected areas (345 km, 58%, of surveyed coastline). We identify and discuss sources of potential error in estimating total nesting effort from aerial surveying techniques and show that interannual variation in nesting is considerable, which has implications for the detection of statistically significant changes in population size. Despite its relative costliness per day, aerial surveying can play an important role in providing estimates of relative population abundance of large vertebrates dispersed over extensive areas. Furthermore, it can provide data on habitat use and deliver real-time information on the spatial efficacy of protected area networks.     

Estimating the density of a jaguar population in the Brazilian Pantanal using camera-traps and capture-recapture sampling in combination with GPS radio-telemetry

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the largest feline in the Americas and third largest world-wide, smaller in size only to the tiger (P. tigris) and lion (P. leo). Yet, in comparison, relatively few studies on jaguar population densities have been conducted and baseline data for management purposes are needed. Camera trapping and capture-recapture sampling methods were used to estimate the size of a jaguar population in the Pantanal’s open wet grassland habitat, an important area for the long-term survival of the species. This study is the first jaguar population estimate conducted in co-operation with a GPS-telemetry study providing an important opportunity for comparing different methods of density estimation. An accessible area within a 460 km² privately-owned ranch was sampled with equal effort during the dry seasons of 2003 and 2004. Thirty-one and twenty-five individual jaguars were identified in 2003 and 2004, respectively. Estimates of jaguar abundance were generated by program CAPTURE. Density estimates were produced according to different methods used to calculate the effectively sampled areas which ranged from 274 to 568 km². For 2003, the currently-used mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) method produced a density of 10.3 jaguars/100 km², while GPS-telemetry-based calculations produced a mean density of 6.6 jaguars/100 km². For 2004, the MMDM method produced an estimate of 11.7 jaguars/100 km² while GPS-telemetry calculations produced a density of 6.7 jaguars/100 km². Our results suggest that the widely-used MMDM method used to calculate effectively sampled areas is significantly under-reflecting maximum distances moved by jaguars and their range-use and, thereby, considerably inflating cat density estimates. This overestimation could place a population in a difficult situation by lengthening the time taken to initiate protection measures because of underestimating the risk to that population.     

The influence of food availability on breeding success of African penguins Spheniscus demersus at Robben Island, South Africa

From 1989 to 2004, the breeding success of African penguins Spheniscus demersus at Robben Island, South Africa was significantly related to estimates of the abundance of both their main prey species, anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax, and to the combined biomass of these species. When the combined spawner biomass of fish prey was less than 2 million ton, pairs fledged an average of 0.46 chicks annually. When it was above 2 million ton, annual breeding success had a mean value of 0.73 chicks per pair. Given previously estimated values of survival and age at first breeding, these levels of breeding success are inadequate to sustain the African penguin population. With the higher level of breeding success, an equilibrium situation might be attained if adult survival could be increased by 6-7% per annum. Attempts to reduce mortality of penguins have included the collection, cleaning and return to the wild of oiled birds, culling of Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus seen preying on penguins around breeding localities and control of the spread of disease. Management of the purse-seine fishery should ensure adequate escapement of fish to maintain the combined biomass of anchovy and sardine above 2 million ton. The maintenance of suitable breeding habitat and removal of feral predators from breeding localities will also be important in improving breeding success.     

Factors influencing survival and long-term population viability of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus): Implications for conservation

A population viability analysis is important for the management of endangered populations and requires the estimation of survival parameters. The long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) is one of only two native terrestrial mammals currently found in New Zealand and is classed as vulnerable. Its viability in temperate beech (Nothofagus) forest, Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand was estimated using mark-recapture data collected between 1993 and 2003 using the Program MARK. Survival was estimated based on a total of 5286 captures representing 1026 individuals. Overall annual survival varied between 0.34 and 0.83 but varied significantly among three sub-populations and with sex and age. Females generally had a higher survival rate compared to males; and adults had higher survival relative to juveniles. Survival of all bats was lower in years when the number of introduced mammalian predators was high and when the winter temperature was warmer than average. High numbers of introduced predators occurred during three of the 10 years in the study. Climate change may mean that the conditions that promote high predator numbers may occur more frequently. A preliminary population viability analysis using a projection matrix on the overall adult female population showed an average 5% decline per year (λ = 0.95). Increased predator control targeting a range of predators is required in years when their numbers are high in order to halt the decline of this population of long-tailed bats. Population estimates using minimum number alive estimates supported the population estimates derived from Program MARK and a population viability analysis using matrices.     

What are the best correlates of predicted extinction risk?

Direct estimates of extinction risk are frequently unavailable, so surrogate indicators are used in threatened species categorizations, but there is inadequate information on which best predict vulnerability. We compared the ability of 16 frequently-used factors to predict extinction risk for 45 vertebrate taxa. Median times to extinction were estimated using taxon-specific stochastic population models. Population size (N) and trend were clearly the best correlates of extinction risk in our data set. Stepwise multiple regression with additive and interaction terms identified N, N × trend, plus taxonomic level, number of sub-populations × N × trend, number of offspring (O) and N × O as predictors, and explained 70% of the variation. Trend was important in large, but not in small populations. Population size is the most important data to collect for threatened species and with trend should be the major focus in endangered species categorization and state of the environment reporting.     

Regional and local factors affecting diversity, abundance and activity of free-living, N2-fixing bacteria in Australian agricultural soils

N₂-fixation by free-living (diazotrophic) microorganism is a key process affecting ecosystem functioning in soils. Understanding drivers affecting diazotrophic community assemblages and activities may lead to management practices to increase primary production and/or environmental sustainability. We used PCR-DGGE to determine the fundamental relationships between diazotrophic community structure and in a wide range of soils across southern Australia. In addition qPCR, RT-qPCR and N₂-fixation (acetylene reduction) were used to investigate factors influencing gene abundance, expression and processes in similar soils with different agricultural inputs. Across 22 soils, the structural composition of the nifH community was significantly influenced by site (ANOSIM R = 0.876; P = 0.001). The effects of management practices were evident, and often larger than between-soil differences, but were only present at some sites. Differences in nifH communities between sites correlated to particulate organic carbon (POC; measured by mid-infrared spectroscopy) content of the soils (BIO-ENV test; ρ = 0.502; P = 0.001), but not other factors including total soil C. In 3 soils from the Murrumbidgee irrigation region of NSW, intensification of the farming systems was associated with increasing N₂-fixation (P < 0.05), except where rice was cultivated. N₂-fixation correlated either with nifH abundance or gene expression in soils, but not both. Our data shows that soil C is closely linked to diazotrophic ecology. Principally, the amount of C entering the soil system is directly related to the abundance and N₂-fixation activity of free-living bacteria. However, we also show that C in the POC pool has associative links to the genetic diversity of the soil diazotroph community. Given the importance of diversity and abundance of functional organisms in supporting ecosystem processes, we suggest that soil C inputs should be considered for both qualitative and quantitative properties when considering impacts on diazotrophic bacterial ecology.     

Regional population viability of grassland songbirds: Effects of agricultural management

Although population declines of grassland songbirds in North America and Europe are well-documented, the effect of local processes on regional population persistence is unclear. To assess population viability of grassland songbirds at a regional scale (∼150,000 ha), we quantified Savannah Sparrow Passerculus sandwichensis and Bobolink Dolichonyx oryzivorus annual productivity, adult apparent survival, habitat selection, and density in the four most (regionally) common grassland treatments. We applied these data to a female-based, stochastic, pre-breeding population model to examine whether current grassland management practices can sustain viable populations of breeding songbirds. Additionally, we evaluated six conservation strategies to determine which would most effectively increase population trends. Given baseline conditions, over 10 years, simulations showed a slightly declining or stable Savannah Sparrow population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.99; 95% CI = 1.00-0.989) and severely declining Bobolink population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.753-0.747). Savannah Sparrow populations were sensitive to increases in all demographic parameters, particularly adult survival. However for Bobolinks, increasing adult apparent survival, juvenile apparent survival, or preference by changing habitat selection cues for late-hayed fields (highest quality) only slightly decreased the rate of decline. For both species, increasing the amount of high-quality habitat (late- and middle-hayed) marginally slowed population declines; increasing the amount of low-quality habitat (early-hayed and grazed) marginally increased population declines. Both species were most sensitive to low productivity and survival on early-hayed fields, despite the fact that this habitat comprised only 18% of the landscape. Management plans for all agricultural regions should increase quality on both low- and high-quality fields by balancing habitat needs, nesting phenology, and species’ response to management.     

An approach for regional threat assessment under IUCN Red List criteria that is robust to uncertainty: The Fiordland bottlenose dolphins are critically endangered

Numerous globally abundant species are exposed to human impacts that threaten the viability of regional populations. Assessing and characterising the risks faced by these populations can have significant implications for biodiversity conservation, given the ecological importance of many such species. To address these risks, the IUCN is starting to conduct assessments of regional populations in addition to species-level assessments of conservation status. Here, we demonstrate a threat assessment process that is robust to uncertainty, applying the IUCN criteria to a regional population of bottlenose dolphins in Fiordland, New Zealand. We compiled available population-specific information to assess the population under the five Red List criteria. We estimated there were 205 Fiordland bottlenose dolphins (CV = 3.5%), using current estimates of abundance for two sub-populations and stochastic modelling of an earlier estimate for the third sub-population. Population trajectory and extinction risk were assessed using stochastic age-structured Leslie matrix population models. The majority of model runs met the criteria for classification as critically endangered (C1: 67.6% of runs) given the number of mature individuals (123; CV = 6.7%) and the predicted rate of population decline (average decline: 31.4% over one generation). The evidence of isolation of the population confirms this was an appropriate regional classification. This approach provided an assessment that was robust to uncertainty.     

Relative fitness of wild and captive-reared piping plovers: Does egg salvage contribute to recovery of the endangered Great Lakes population?

Since 1992, efforts to recover the US federally endangered Great Lakes piping plover (Charadrius melodus) have included population supplementation with captive-reared young raised from abandoned eggs. Using banding data collected 1993-2008 and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in program MARK we estimated resighting rates (ρ) and apparent survival (Φ) of first-year (1) and after-first-year (2+) plovers. Reproductive success was measured by estimating mean number of eggs laid, chicks hatched and chicks fledged per wild-reared or captive-reared parent, and these values were compared with a permutation test. The best-supported mark-resighting model indicated wild-reared plovers had higher Φ₁ and Φ₂₊ than captive-reared plovers. Breeding propensity influenced detection of wild plovers, whereas unique band combinations facilitated detection of yearling captive-reared plovers. Captive-reared (n = 10) and wild-reared (n = 57) plovers laid similar numbers of eggs, but wild-reared plovers hatched 36% more chicks and fledged 56% more young. Reproductive values derived from matrix models suggest captive-reared piping plovers are less fit than similarly aged wild-reared birds upon release and demonstrate reduced fitness in subsequent years. The Great Lakes captive-rearing effort has successfully produced a minimum of 10 breeding adults from 192 eggs that otherwise would have had no reproductive value; these captive-reared individuals now constitute up to 3% of the total population. Small scale salvage and captive-rearing of abandoned eggs should be considered as a technique to supplement existing recovery efforts in highly imperiled populations.     

An evaluation of field and non-invasive genetic methods to estimate brown bear (Ursus arctos) population size

Estimates of population size and density are essential for successful management and conservation of any species. Although there are a variety of methods available for estimating abundance and density of populations, most studies rely on only one estimator and very few studies have compared and critically evaluated the adequacy and the cost of these methods. We used the brown bear (Ursus arctos) in south-central Sweden to compare the performance of three different methods of estimating population size, including methods based on conventional field data as well as on non-invasive genetic data. The method based on observations of females with cubs underestimated the true population size, as the estimates were below the number of unique genotypes determined from faecal data inside the study area. The best traditional method was based on observations of bears from a helicopter. The genetic method using the closed population MARK estimator, as recommended in a previous study, seemed to perform the best. We conclude that approximately 223 (188-282) bears were present in our 7328 km² study area during 2001 and 2002 and suggest that this hunted brown bear population has been relatively stable for about ten years. The non-invasive genetic method was less expensive than the most reliable traditional field method (a CMR method based on observations of bears from a helicopter), and preferable from an ethical point of view. We recommend that future studies using non-invasive genetic methods based on collected faecal samples should aim at collecting 2.5-3 times the number of faecal samples as the “assumed” number of animals.     

Genetic diversity of core and peripheral Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr) populations: implications for conservation of widespread species

This study investigated levels of genetic diversity and population differentiation among Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) populations classified as core or peripheral based on ecological niche, and continuous or disjunct based on species distribution. Large numbers of trees (N = 200) were sampled from each of eight populations to evaluate the distribution of rare as well as common alleles across the species range. Codominant alleles for eight sequence-tagged site loci were classified based on frequency and geographic distribution in order to develop appropriate sampling strategies to target specific classes of alleles. An important finding of this study is the similarity in genetic diversity as measured by expected heterozygosity between core populations (mean H_E = 0.58) and peripheral populations (mean H_E = 0.56). However, there was significant inbreeding in peripheral (F_IS = 0.17) but not in core (F_IS = 0.03) populations. Large differences in gene flow estimates were observed between core (Nm = 9.0) and peripheral populations (Nm = 3.5). Irrespective of population classification, over 75% of the alleles were common and widespread. Only one allele was classified as rare and localized, and this allele was limited to one core, disjunct and two peripheral, disjunct populations. There was stronger evidence of past bottlenecks in peripheral, disjunct populations than in core, continuous populations. Results are used to suggest sampling strategies for capture of maximum level of genetic diversity and conservation of rare alleles. The conservation of peripheral, particularly disjunct, populations as well as populations in putative glacial refugia may present the best opportunity for conserving rare alleles.     

From both sides: Dire demographic consequences of carnivorous mice and longlining for the Critically Endangered Tristan albatrosses on Gough Island

The IUCN recently uplisted the Tristan albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) to Critically Endangered. Here we present new data indicating negative population trends on Gough Island arising from low adult survival (∼91%, ascribed to accidental mortality on fishing gear) and low breeding success (averaging 32%, due to mouse predation). Fledgling production from 1979 to 2007 and numbers of incubating adults from 1956 to 2007 have both decreased by ∼1% p.a. Consecutive annual counts of incubating adults and a population model permit the first reliable estimates of the Tristan albatross population, presently 5400 breeding adults and 11,300 birds in all age- and stage-classes. Population models explore scenarios of likely demographic trends using combinations of hypothetical best-case estimates vs. observed estimates for two key parameters: adult survival and breeding success. These scenarios highlight the relative benefits to the species of eradicating mice or mitigating bycatch. The model scenario using observed estimates predicts annual growth rate at −2.85%. Adult survival rates have probably decreased in recent years, concomitant with increased longline fishing effort, which might explain the discrepancy between counts and modelled trends. Negative trends cannot be reversed by improving breeding success alone, and adult survival must exceed an improbable 97% to balance the current chick production. A worst-case scenario including a fixed number of adult deaths annually predicted a catastrophic 4.2% p.a. decrease and extinction in ∼30 years. Population growth was most sensitive to adult survival, but even using an adult survival estimate without fishery mortality, current breeding success is insufficient to maintain the population. These findings do not support the ‘compensatory mitigation of bycatch’ model (offsetting bycatch impacts by eradicating invasive species), and the impacts of both fishery mortality and mouse predation must be addressed to improve the conservation status of the Critically Endangered Tristan albatross.     

Unexpected high levels of genetic variability and the population structure of an island endemic rodent (Oryzomys couesi cozumelae)

Oryzomys couesi cozumelae is an endemic, threatened rodent from Cozumel Island, Mexico. We estimated its genetic diversity and structure by analyzing microsatellite loci in 228 samples from 12 sampling sites widely distributed throughout the island. Unexpected high levels of genetic and allelic diversity were found: a total of 54 alleles, an average of 10.8 alleles per locus, and high heterozygosity values (mean H_O = 0.624, H_E = 0.690 and H_Nei = 0.689). These values are higher than those reported for small sized insular mammals, higher than that found in 37 individuals of the mainland O. couesi from southern Mexico (H_O = 0.578) that we analyzed for comparative purposes, and similar to those of other mainland small mammal populations. Despite factors that affect Cozumel’s biota, such as exotic predators and competitors, hurricanes, seasonal population fluctuations and anthropogenic activities, no evidence of genetic bottlenecks was found. A significant population structure was observed and a model of isolation-by-distance was supported. Our findings render O. c. cozumelae a high conservation value, not only for its high genetic diversity and structure, but because available data suggests that its population has declined significantly in recent years. Further habitat fragmentation and population isolation could result in a higher genetic structure and loss of genetic diversity. The protection of habitat, the maintenance of habitat connectivity and the removal of introduced competitors and predators are a conservation priority. Acknowledging that the genetic structure of populations has crucial conservation implications, the present genetic information should be taken into account in management plans for the conservation of O. c. cozumelae.     

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of population growth to: (1) determine the pattern of growth in these populations, and (2) identify the demographic rates most important to growth. Trend estimates from population models were most similar to trend estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data when models incorporated either a reproductive or survival event. These events randomly increased fecundity or survival, respectively, to their empirical maxima on average once every 5 years. Reproductive events improved estimates on areas dominated by mixed mesophytic forest, while survival events characterized population growth on oak (Quercus spp.)-dominated sites. The finite rate of increase (λ) was most sensitive to brood survival followed by adult and juvenile non-breeding survival on most sites. However, brood survival was low (<0.35 female chicks/hen survived to week 5), and elasticity analyses indicated λ responded more strongly to proportionate change in non-breeding and breeding survival rates of adults and juveniles than any reproductive variable. Life stage analyses corroborated this result. At baseline values, survival of adults and juveniles may be the main determinants of growth in these populations, and reproduction may not be adequate to compensate for these losses. Therefore, population growth above baseline levels may be regularly needed to restock these populations. Researchers have hypothesized that population dynamics may differ between mixed mesopytic and oak-dominated sites due to differences in forage quality and quantity. Thus, a potential mechanism for the increases in λ needed to sustain populations on mixed mesophytic forest sites is the greater fecundity observed during years with high oak or beech (Fagus grandifolia) mast abundance. The availability of this high quality forage allows hens to enter the breeding season in better condition and realize higher fertility. Alternatively, on oak-dominated sites, population growth increases may also be a product of higher non-breeding survival of birds in mast years, when birds do not need to range as far to forage and can limit their exposure to predators.     

Comparison of size vs. life-state classification in demographic models for the terrestrial orchid Cleistes bifaria

Recent studies using capture-recapture modelling in terrestrial orchids have shown relationships among survival, life-state, climate and dormancy, but to date, there has been no rigorous study of the effects of size on demographic rates. Here we use multistate capture-recapture models to investigate the relationships between survival, ramet size, life-state, and propensity for extended dormancy of Cleistes bifaria in two populations in Florida and West Virginia. Using estimated leaf area as a measure of ramet size, we investigated relative fit to the data of models in which ramets were classified by life-state alone (dormant, vegetative, and flowering), size alone (dormant, small, and large), or by a combination of size and state (dormant, small vegetative, large vegetative, small flowering, and large flowering ramets). This scheme allowed us to compare the effects of a size versus state classification on survival and transition probabilities, including the propensity for dormancy. For survival rates, the size-classified model was preferable in terms of parsimony (AIC) to models classified either by state or by a combination of size and state. In C. bifaria, annual survival rate for large ramets was close to 1.0 and for small and dormant ramets, 0.91 and 0.76, respectively. This highlights the importance of protecting large plants. In contrast, a model combining life-state with ramet size was most parsimonious for explaining variation in transition rates. As the ‘size + state’ classification is convenient, holds more information, and seems more closely tied to fitness than classification by either size or life-state alone, it may be particularly useful in planning and assessing conservation management of orchids.     

Reproduction and pre-dispersal survival of Iberian lynx in a subpopulation of the Doñana National Park

Little is known about the reproduction of the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) even though it is the most endangered felid in the world. We studied during 9 years several reproductive parameters of the Iberian lynx in one of the subpopulations situated in Doñana National Park (south-western Spain), by means of radio-tracking, direct observations and photo-trapping. The potential breeding subpopulation was usually composed of 3 adult females, which bred 83% of the total possible 29 female-reproductive year. The minimum total number of cubs born during the study was 64 (7.7 ± 0.69 per year). There was no correlation between the number of cubs born or number of breeding females and population size of European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus, the main prey of the lynx). All known births (n = 16) occurred in March except one in April and another in June. Mean litter size was 3.0 ± 0.16 (n = 16, range = 2-4). Sex-ratio (n = 59 cubs) was 1.03:1.00 (females:males). Nevertheless, the commonest picture was a female with 2 cubs older than 3 months. Altogether, at age of 3 months, 75% of cubs survived. Number of lynx alive at 10 months old and before dispersing was 69% and 57%, respectively. Sex did not affect survival for any age. Normally, it was not possible to know the causes of the death of cubs younger than 3 months. Survival at this age was not related with mother, mother age, or rabbit abundance. All females that bred were older than 3 years. The age of last reproduction was 9 years. For 3 females that were tracked during almost their complete reproductive life, the life time reproductive output was between 11 and 19 cubs. Iberian lynx reproductive parameters did not respond to wide changes in prey abundance during the study. Conservation plans considering the extraction of cubs with a low survival probability should be considered by managers, for instance, in translocation campaigns.     

Management recommendations based on matrix projection models: The importance of considering biological limits

Matrix population models are a common tool for evaluating different management strategies. In general, under deterministic analyses, management strategies are recommended that improve those matrix transitions that are most sensitive or elastic with respect to the asymptotic population growth rate, λ. These recommendations usually ignore the biological limit for these transitions. In this paper we use the endangered Serengeti cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) as a case study to illustrate that ignoring biological limits leads to a recommendation that will not always achieve the desired goal of an asymptotic population growth rate, λ ? 1.We estimate the survivorships of adult cheetahs in captivity using cheetah studbook data, which is a conservative estimate of the biological limit for the adult survivorship of wild cheetahs. Our analysis suggests that adult survival sharply decreases after 8.5 years. In addition, captive cheetahs older than 18 years do not reproduce. We modify a previously published population projection matrix to include the effect of senescence on survival and fecundity. Our model suggests that increasing adult survivorship alone is not sufficient to reverse population decline. However, an additional small increase in newborn survival is likely to result in a viable cheetah population. We show these conclusions hold even in the presence of relatively large parameter perturbations.