A systematic and quantitative approach to improve water use efficiency in agriculture

As the competition for the finite water resources on earth increases due to growth in population and affluence, agriculture is faced with intensifying pressure to improve the efficiency of water used for food production. The causes for the relatively low water use efficiency in agriculture are numerous and complex, including environmental, biological, engineering, management, social, and economic facets. The complexity of the problem, with its myriads of local variations, requires a comprehensive conceptual framework of the underlying physical and biological processes as the basis to analyze the existing situation and quantify the efficiencies, and to plan and execute improvements. This paper proposes such a framework, based on the simple fact that the overall efficiency of any process consisting of a chain of sequential step is the product of the efficiency (i.e., output/input ratio) of its individual component steps. In most cases of water use, a number of process chains, both branching and merging, are involved. Means to integrate the diverging and converging chains are developed and presented as equations. Upscaling from fields to regions and beyond are discussed. This chain of efficiencies approach is general and can be applied to any process composed of chains of sequential steps. Here the framework is used to analyze the systems of irrigated and dryland crop production, and animal production on rangeland. Range of plausible efficiencies of each step is presented as tables, with values separately for the poor and for the good situation of circumstances, management and technology. Causes of the differences in efficiency of each step, going from water delivery to soil water extraction, transpiration, photosynthesis, and conversion to crop biomass and yield, and to animal product are briefly discussed. Sample calculations are made to demonstrate how modest differences in the efficiencies of the component steps are manifested as large to huge differences in the overall efficiency. Based on an equation quantifying the impact of changes in efficiency of component steps on the overall efficiency, it is concluded that generally, it is more effective to made modest improvements in several or more steps than to concentrate efforts to improve one or two steps. Hence, improvement efforts should be systematic and not overly concentrated on one or two components. The potential use of the same equation as the point of departure to optimize the allocation of economic resource among the component steps to maximize the improvement in the overall water use efficiency is elaborated on. The chain of efficiencies framework provides the means to examine the current levels of efficiency along the pathways of agricultural water use, to analyze where inefficiencies lie by comparing with the range of known efficiency values in the tables presented, to assess the potential improvements that may be achieved in various parts and their impact on the overall efficiency, and to aid in the optimal allocation of resources for improvements.

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A comparison of the Priestley-Taylor and Penman methods for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration in tropical countries

An equation for Potential Evaporation (PE) proposed by Priestley and Taylor in 1972 has fewer data requirements than the well established Penman Potential Transpiration (Et) equation. From their definitions, PE and Et values should both provide acceptable estimates of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration (ETo), as defined by Doorenbos and Pruitt. Analysis of mean monthly climatic data from 30 tropical stations, widely spread within the latitude zone 25°N to 25°S, showed that PE and Et estimates agreed closely when monthly rainfall exceeded monthly Et. The minimum data requirements for the Priestley-Taylor equation are daily net radiation and mean air temperature. The Penman equation additionally requires daily data for humidity and run of wind. As reliable field net radiometers become more widely available, the Priestley-Taylor PE equation offers a satisfactory alternative to the Penman Et equation for estimating ETo in humid tropical climates.     

A discussion on and alternative to the Penman-Monteith equation

The Penman-Monteith (PMe) equation that estimates evaporation from leaf/canopy surfaces is based on a few approximations. Several authors discussed ensuing errors and suggested improvements. This paper reminds those discussions which ended in the early nineties. It compares linearized PMe− with non-linear iterative solutions and illustrates resulting deviations. It differentiates between deviations for daily and hourly evaporation rate estimates. The latter are found to be higher. It also demonstrates deviations obtained at two different altitudes above sea level. Considering present tendencies to refine evaporation estimates for practical purposes and making use of easily available methods for solving non-linear equations this paper offers a new method to estimate evaporation.In a first step, a simple algebraic term, the surface temperature control sum, is introduced to find approximate differences between air and evaporating surface (leaf, canopy) temperatures. It suggests to concentrate research on the r_s/r_a ratio. A new formula is derived for estimating leaf/canopy surface temperatures for non-water stressed plants.In a second step, the estimates of temperature differences are used to calculate evaporation estimates. This two-step approximation leads to appreciably smaller errors as compared to the PMe-solution over the full range of input parameters of agro-meteorological relevance. It is, however, less accurate than some of methods proposed in literature. The method is meant for practical application in agricultural water management.     

Penman-Monteith公式与Penman修正式在计算ET0中的比较研究

利用1961-2001年关中中部地区3个气象站的月气象资料,分别用Penman-Monteith公式和Penman修正式计算3站的ET0,并对计算的结果进行了比较.结果表明,Penman-Monteith公式计算的ET0年值大于Penman修正式计算的ET0的年值,且两种方法逐年的计算结果比较稳定.绝对误差△ET0的变化为-138～44 mm;相对误差变化为0.17%～13.90%.ET0多年月均值在全年各月变化较大,绝对误差△ET0在4-7月大于0,其他月份都小于0;相对误差1、10、11和12月相对较大,而在其他月份相对较小.导致差异的原因在于两种公式采用了不同的辐射项和空气动力项计算公式和参数,其中春、夏两季空气动力学项的不同是引起结果差异的主要原因,而在秋、冬两季辐射项不同是引起结果差异的主要原因.两种公式计算的ET0具有显著的线性相关性.     

干旱荒漠草原应用Penman-Monteith与Penman修正式计算ET0的偏差分析

甘肃天祝草原位于我国西北干旱荒漠草原,应用天祝县二道墩试验站2005年的实测气象资料,利用Penman-Monteith公式和Penman修正式计算参考作物腾发量(ET0)并进行了比较。Penman修正式计算的参考作物腾发量ET0值略小于Penman-Monteith公式计算的值,最大绝对偏差0.5 mm/d。分析发现生育期辐射项ETrad是导致参考作物腾发量ET0产生偏差的主要原因。2种方法计算的空气动力项ETaero差别较小,最大绝对偏差不超过0.2 mm/d。导致计算偏差的原因在于2种公式采用了不同的辐射项和空气动力学项计算公式和参数。2个公式计算的参考作物腾发量具有显著的线性相关性。     

A quantitative framework to analyse cooperation between rural households

Different types of cooperative agreements between smallholders continue to play an important role in rural areas in developing countries. While some empirical studies examine the conditions catalysing the successful formation of cooperatives, quantifications of the net benefits, i.e., difference between revenues and costs, of cooperation and how farmers divide these net benefits are scarce. Therefore, we develop a quantitative framework to analyse and allocate net benefits in a cooperative production agreement. The framework allows for cooperative exchange of several types of resources and the production of multiple products.Linear programming provides insight into optimal production levels, both for individual and cooperating farmers, and gives optimal revenue levels. A transaction cost function is used to account for costs of cooperation, such as meeting costs, moral hazard and free ridership of labour use and the risks of farmers defaulting from the agreement. Transaction costs are likely to increase with the number of households participating, the total cropping area and the heterogeneity of resources of the cooperating farmers. Therefore, we introduce a measure of heterogeneity in the resources for each cooperative. Finally, cooperative game theory is used to generate fair divisions of the net benefits in a cooperative.This framework may be used to give additional explanations to the findings in empirical studies on cooperatives. We illustrate this with an empirical example from northern Nigeria. It is found that cooperation between farmers sharing complementary resources gives the highest revenues. Next, we illustrate the effects of two different transaction cost functions. For reasonable assumptions on these functions, cooperation remains economically attractive. Nevertheless, larger and more diverse coalitions are not always the most beneficial, while the returns in some small coalitions are negative, possibly impeding the formation of cooperatives in some locations.     

A management approach to change on farms

The increasing importance of agro-environmental issues currently makes the management of changes in farming practices a major question for political decision-makers and farmers. How is change envisaged and managed on farms? Using a case study of changes in farming practices with a view to protecting water quality, we propose here an innovative approach for managing change plus operative teaching methods which together form a management approach to change. Our research methodology is based on an interactive approach and a longitudinal study of the transformation process. Results show that change is a complex process, the direction it takes is difficult to predict, and it is based on the dynamic of actor-group learning. The management approach to change does not just mean the incentives proposed to farmers, but also methods for devising and managing this change, development of actor-group learning, and back-up for farmers.     

A conceptual approach to the modelling of herbage intake by hill sheep

A modelling approach is examined as a method of investigating alternative management strategies for improved systems of hill sheep production. In order to take account of the wide range in the quality of hill herbage and the ability of the hill sheep to select preferred components, herbage has been conceptually classified in terms of its digestibility; the digestibility classes are then grazed selectively by sheep. The model deals with herbage growth and deterioration, diet selection and the maintenance and liveweight change of wether sheep. Results produced by the model, in which wethers grazed Agrostis-Festuca at two stocking rates, are discussed.     

A hard systems approach to the management of quality in apple distribution

The management of quality in the distribution of produce which exhibits significant and inevitable deterioration with time and event is a neglected but essential component of physical distribution management. This paper concentrates on horticultural produce and, in particular, on apples.Horticultural distribution is described as a system and systems thinking is employed to develop a ‘hard systems’ methodology for the management of quality. A management system is defined in terms of quality-price, quality-cost and quality-happening relations. An example from apple distribution demonstrates the methodology and is used to emphasize the central importance of quantitative models of price, cost, quality and of their interactions with time and happening.     

A conceptual approach to dynamic agricultural land-use modelling

We describe a dynamic agricultural land-use model based on a Markov process and governed by a few simple decision rules. Currently, the model is purely conceptual, and was designed with one objective: to investigate the possibility of constructing top-down land-use models based on as few processes as possible that might still be useful for statistical analyses of landuse change in a region. The model appears to behave in a plausible fashion in a simulated landscape with respect to cropping patterns and the effects of initial household size on wealth distribution. If this type of simple model could be validated, the information that could be produced might be of considerable value in a wide range of applications, particularly with regard to technology adoption patterns and resultant regional production impacts.     

A Markov chain approach to crop yield forecasting

This study proposes a methodology for forecasting crop yields at intermediate times in the growing season using Markov chain theory. A Markov chain is constructed, based on historical data, to provide forecast distributions of crop yield for various crop and soil moisture condition classes at selected times prior to harvest. Expected yield and the associated standard error are obtained for each condition class. The methodology is compared to a regression approach in which the independent variables are the various crop and soil moisture conditions. The Markov chain approach requires less stringent assumptions and provides more information than the regression approach. However, the potential loss of precision in the forecast using this approach requires separate evaluation for each application. A data base created by the CERES-Maize model, which simulates the growth and development of a corn crop, is used to demonstrate the development of the forecast yield distributions using the Markov chain approach.     

A multi-objective programming approach to feed ration balancing and nutrient management

This paper examines the potential to use multiple objective programming to reduce nutrient excretion from dairy cows through incorporation of nutrient excretion functions into a ration formulation framework. In a typical ration formulation model, a ration is formulated to minimize cost while providing sufficient nutrients to meet the needs of the animal type being fed. To reduce the nutrient loading, rations can be formulated to minimize cost, and nitrogen and phosphorus excretion using multiple objective programming. Rations were initially formulated to minimize cost, nitrogen excretion and phosphorus excretion. Compromise programming was then utilized to examine the impacts on ration formulation of combining the three individual objectives. The multiple objective ration formulation reduced phosphorus excretion by 5% and marginally reduced nitrogen excretion with a small increase in ration cost compared to the single objective minimum cost ration. Multiple objective programming does have the potential to reduce nutrient excretion.     

企业信息系统实施的系统工程方法

企业信息系统的实施本质上是一个系统工程，为此从系统工程角度分析了系统实施的组成要素及其关系，提出了企业信息系统实施的系统工程方法。     

A linear programming formulation of the Markovian decision process approach to modelling the dairy replacement problem

In modelling the replacement decision in dairy herd management, the most common approach taken is to use dynamic programming to determine the optimal policy by comparing the future expected profitability of an animal to that of it's potential replacement. It does not, however, take into account the performance of the entire herd or that of all potential replacements, which is particularly important if replacements originate from the same herd. This paper demonstrates how to overcome this inadequacy by formulating the problem as a multi-component Markovian decision process and then solving it as an associated linear programming model. The proposed methodology is illustrated by using a simple, but realistic, example for determining the optimal replacement strategy for a dairy herd over a 10-year planning horizon. The results show that replacements should be bred from heifer cows in order to increase the genetic turnover; however, no more animals than is necessary should be culled to increase this turnover. It is also shown how to include considerations such as problems of milk quota management, and other similar resource allocation decisions into the model. Additional improvements to the model could involve considering culling of animals suffering from disease.     

常见电力电缆故障的处理方法探讨

电力电缆作为整个电力系统的重要组成部分,一旦发生故障将直接影响着整个电力系统的安全运行。文章分析了电力电缆故障的原因及分类,探讨了电力电缆的故障实行的检测方法,保证了电力供应畅通、保证供电可靠性。     

A systems approach to analyse the effects of Flemish manure policy on structural changes and cost abatement in pig farming

Animal production in the Flemish region and pig production in particular is intensive and causing external problems related to manure disposal. At a regional level, manure disposal can be regarded as a problem of distributing the manure from farms with a surplus to farms with a shortage or to disposal alternatives. Total disposal costs will depend on the amount of manure surplus and on the location dependent disposal cost per unit. Disposal costs are an economic incentive for structural changes and cost abatement investments at farm level which will, in turn, influence the regional disposal. In order to simulate these interactions, an integrated system of models describing the regional manure disposal coordination system is developed, composed of a farm level component, an aggregation module and a regional disposal model. The possibilities for disposal cost abatement at farm level are analysed through LP modelling of representative farms. Incentives for structural change are derived from the shadow prices of the housing and land constraints in the model. Manure separation is analysed as an example of cost abatement investments.     

A wind-based qualitative calibration of the Hargreaves ET0 estimation equation in semiarid regions

This study evaluates the Hargreaves (HARG) equation for estimation of monthly ET₀ under the semiarid conditions of the middle Ebro River Valley (NE Spain). First, the Hargreaves equation was compared against measured lysimeter ET₀ values at Zaragoza for the period May 1997–October 2000. The average of estimated values was only 5.6% above the average of measured values. Later, the Hargreaves equation was compared against the FAO Penman–Monteith equation for monthly ET₀ estimation at nine locations. These locations can be grouped as non-windy (Alcañiz, Daroca and Tamarite) and windy (Almudévar, Ejea, Gallocanta, Monflorite, Sariñena and Zaragoza). Simple linear regression and error analysis statistics suggest that agreement between the two estimation methods was quite good for the windy locations. Average errors ranged between 2 and 5% for Almudévar, Ejea, Sariñena and Zaragoza, and between 7 and 10% for Gallocanta and Monflorite where some underestimation was observed. However, the agreement between the Hargreaves and FAO Penman–Monteith equations was lower for the non-windy locations. In this case, the Hargreaves equation overestimated ET₀ and average errors varied between 14 and 20%. According to these results, it is proposed that, under the semiarid conditions of this study, no local calibration would be required for windy locations (those where monthly average windspeeds above 2.0 m s⁻¹ are frequent), while a value of 0.0020 instead of the original 0.0023 should be used in the Hargreaves equation for non-windy locations. Further research should be undertaken to evaluate whether these results can be extended to other semiarid regions of the world.     

Constraints to farmers’ adoption of direct-seeding mulch-based cropping systems: A farm scale modeling approach applied to the mountainous slopes of Vietnam

Substantial initiatives are under way in the tropical world to develop and promote direct-seeding mulch-based cropping systems (DMC) in order to reduce soil erosion and improve crop nutrient and water balances. DMC have been adopted by large-scale mechanized farmers, especially in America and Australia, but seldom by resource-poor farmers in the developing world. This study was conducted in Vietnam with the aim of evaluating the feasibility of farmers’ implementing DMC in a mountainous area. The method involved simulation of rational households maximizing their income subject to food security constraints and availability of resources. It generated insight into why farmers of a small region were reluctant to adopt DMC due to the extra labor and input required to implement these techniques during the first years, which hampers their economic performance. In another region, under different biophysical and economic environmental conditions, the study showed that DMC were more likely to be adopted provided that possible constraints at the community level are overcome. The method also allowed us to discuss the types of technical improvements that would make DMC more attractive to farmers. For most farm types, labor required by mulch establishment would have to be reduced by more than 30%. This would mean spreading much less biomass than the 7 t ha⁻¹ currently necessary, compromising the weed-control function of mulch. This would be technically feasible only by using herbicides but this would not be economically sound since it would increase cash requirements. The study showed that subsidies of 50 to more than 200 USD ha⁻¹ were necessary to enable the conversion of all conventionally managed sloping land into DMC in the simulations. These amounts are high relatively to gross margins (250-750 USD ha⁻¹) under conventional management.     

A new approach to water management of tropical peatlands: a case study from Malaysia

The use of peatlands in the humid tropics requires drainage to remove excess rainfall. The design principles for the drainage systems currently being implemented on peatlands are the same as for mineral soils. The objective of such systems is the timely removal of excess rainfall by surface runoff. For peatlands, with their different soil-hydraulic characteristics, these systems have resulted in poor watertable control and high rates of irreversible subsidence. Concerns about this rate of subsidence and the level of sustainability of the present land use have prompted a study to develop a new water management system. This new system includes a shift from a drainage system that focuses on discharge of excess water towards a system that combines drainage and water conservation. In the new two-step design, the drain spacing and corresponding drain discharges are obtained with a steady-state approach. These outputs are used to calculate the capacity of the drains, including control structures, using an unsteady-state approach. The new system results in a shallower but more narrowly spaced drainage system and maintains a more constant but relatively high watertable and reduces subsidence. It should be remembered however, that even with the improved water management, subsidence cannot be arrested; it is the price one has to pay for the use of tropical peatlands.     

抓住机遇转变方式推进农机推广——丁翔文在全国农机推广站站长会议上的讲话(摘要)

今年是我国十一五的最后一年,也是我国农业生产遭受自然灾害较多的一年.沧海横流,方显出英雄本色,在这一年中,农业机械化和农机推广工作不仅在农业生产的抗旱、抗低温抢种、三夏的抢收抢种、三秋的秋收秋种等一系列生产中发挥了机械化威力和生力军的作用,保证了农业生产形势的基本稳定;而且在抗洪排涝抢险等抗灾救灾中也发挥了积极的作用,凸显了机械化快速、高效、有力的保障作用和农机化队伍敢打硬仗的作风.