The Application of Bayes Method to Real Risk Decision - Making

The risk probability analysis is a difficult problem in real investment risk decision-making.Traditional analyses methods of sensitivity and probability can not be used to change the decisions and adjust the development of practicality.Using the methods of BAYES and decision tree,this paper introduced the application method and relational decision rules of BAYES in real investment risk decision-making by a case.     

Risk Identification and Risk Assessment in Engineering Variation of Construction Project

This paper analyses the kinds of risk factors in engineering variation of construction project. Consists of tecthhon risk, economy risk, policy and low risk, contract candition risk and character risk. It puts forward the risk assessment index system and sets up the risk comprehensive assessment model by using the theory of fuzzy mathematics.     

基于行为主体决策机制的土地利用规划方法初探

随着中国市场经济体制改革的不断深入,社会主体构成多元化,用地需求、用地动机呈现多样化,土地利用规划行为更加复杂。传统的土地利用规划方法较少从土地利用行为角度分析,在规划中缺乏对土地使用者的用地心理、用地动机、用地偏好、土地利用行为决策特征的了解,对土地使用者转换土地用途的行为机理不清楚,从而导致规划缺乏行为管理的针对性和激励机制。拟在土地利用规划方法综合分析的基础上,通过对土地利用规划主体行为价值取向、行为特征及其驱动力进行分析,研究土地利用规划的行为决策、行为组织和行为控制,从理论角度对基于行为主体决策机制的土地利用规划方法进行分析。     

A Decision-making Framework Model of Networked Cooperative Product Development

The objective of decision-making of Networked Cooperative Product Development is analyzed. The objective system of decision-making is proposed, which is constituted of six decision-making factors including T (time), Q(quality), C(cost), R(resources), S(security and secrecy) and K(knowledge). Basing this objective system, the TQCRSK decision-making model is constructed. Finally, a case study in which a practical decision-making problem in an application of Networked Cooperative Product Development is analyzed and solved successfully with the model shows the TQCRSK model is practical.     

离散元法在农业工程领域的应用进展

简述了离散元法在农业工程领域方面的研究成果,根据离散元法在农业工程领域的不同应用,分别讨论了离散元法在土壤散体颗粒、农业物料颗粒、多相流中单相介质的应用研究现状,指出了存在数量级受限,颗粒模型不精准,复杂工况制约等问题。提出今后离散元法的研究趋势:开发农业工程领域的专用离散元软件,提高颗粒群的运算效率;通过准确获取物料的细观参数,从理论基础上完善接触模型,使仿真颗粒与真实颗粒更为接近;通过离散元法软件与其他软件耦合,结合API的二次开发,拓宽离散元法在复杂散体颗粒运动仿真的应用。     

Hierarchy Group Decision-making Method of Evaluation of Residential Areas Architecture Design Schemes

For incarnating the effects of the preference of the potential users of residential areas or decision makers on the evaluation of architecture design schemes,a two hierarchy multi-attribute group decision model is established.How to obtain the decision matrix of expert evaluation incarnates the influence of difference of professional knowledge among experts on decision.Multi-attribute decision making method based on uncertain linguistic assessment is used to determine the users' preference on schemes.The weight of attributes is determined by a optimization model that makes the difference of attribute assessment between expert and user minimum,and those weights are used in expert decision.This can enable the model to reflect correctly the actual situation of such decision making question.     

RGA法克隆候选抗病基因的研究进展

RGA法是克隆植物抗病基因的一条新途径,也是近年来分子生物学领域的一个研究热点并受到植物病理学家广泛地关注。其作用原理是根据已克隆植物抗病基因的保守结构域设计简并引物,扩增获得RGAs,然后分析RGAs与抗病基因的关系,确定候选抗病基因并从而获得新的抗病基因。研究还发现,已克隆的RGAs与R基因紧密连锁。最近获得的RGAs主要是根据。NBS-LRR和STK两种保守结构域而得到的。前者在植物基因组中广泛存在,而后者在植物信号传导中具有重要作用。为此,本文主要对上述两种保守结构域的结构特点和所获得的RGAs特点以及RGA法的应用前景进行了综述,以期让人们对RGA法有更进一步的认识。     

Method of Grey Clustering Decision-making to State Assessment of Power Transformer

The assessment of health state of power transformer is a key step to realize Condition-based Maintenance of transformer. Research on health state assessment of transformer has very important actual significance. Transformer can be recognized as a typical grey system. The assessment of its healthy state using grey clustering decision-making method is put forward. The grey classes of transformer are given, the whitenization weight function of grey classes is established, the information involved in assessing the state of transformer is analyzed, and finally steps of state assessment of transformer using grey clustering decision-making are presented. The analysis of actual example demonstrates that the method has provided a new method to assess the health state of transformer.     

A Caculation Method of Portfolio Investment under the Risk Mininiz

According to the security investment theory of Markowitz,this paper presents aCaculation method of portfolio investment under the risk minimization,and some mathematic expres-sions of the efficient frontier for portfolio investment are conducted.Based on these,the efficientfrontier is proved as a parabola,and a practical caculation process is given.     

An Economic Explanation of the Engineering Quality Risk and Risk Prevention

Each party in engineering project faces different quality risk in different stage,and each adopts different management decision against quality risk.Firstly,from the new classic economics angle,an economic explanation to the management decision against engineering quality risk according to the different benefits for contractor and owner.The owner and contractor of a construction project,the government and projection legal person find their economic ties in an asymmetric information supply,or in an imperfectly assigned contract.The rules and characteristics of entrust-agency relation are analyzed from the economics and information economics angle,an economic explanation of engineering quality risk is given according to entrust-agency relation.The measures of controlling quality risk have been put forward from the angle of the economics.     

水杨酸对休眠期茶树光合作用和抗冻性的影响

摘要： 为了探讨水杨酸对冬季茶树的抗寒性的调控机制,以“龙井43号”茶树为试材,研究休眠期叶面喷施水杨酸对茶树叶片光合作用、叶片中碳水化合物含量和活性氧代谢的影响,结果表明,叶面喷施水杨酸30天后即能明显提高茶树叶片净光合速率,处理60天后,2 mmol?L-1的水杨酸处理显著提高了叶片中可溶性总糖和淀粉含量、使丙二醛、活性氧含量显著下降,同时,叶片中脯氨酸含量、超氧化物歧化酶、过氧化氢酶和过氧化物酶活性显著升高,其它水杨酸处理虽然也能提高这些酶活性,但是效果不如2 mmol?L-1的水杨酸处理显著。因此,在休眠期,叶面喷施适当浓度的水杨酸可显著提高茶树叶片的Pn和保护酶活性,从而提高茶树的抗寒性,这也有利于提高次年茶叶的产量与品质。     

抗除草剂转基因水稻的研究进展及其安全性问题

近年来,抗除草剂转基因作物的研究取得了一些进展。本文简述了抗除草剂转基因作物的发展历史以及除草剂的作用机理,分别介绍了抗EPSPS抑制剂基因、抗ALS抑制剂基因、乙酰CoA转移酶基因、阿特拉津氯水解酶基因、细胞色素P450基因和原卟啉原氧化酶基因这6类抗除草剂基因的来源,抗性机理以及目前它们在转基因水稻上的应用。最后,对转基因水稻的食用安全性,转基因释放、飘移对生态的影响进行了探讨,并对转基因水稻的未来发展进行了展望。     

风险视角下的动态信任关系模型

对风险问题的准确把握,是保证信任决策科学性的关键。针对目前在动态信任关系研究中对信任与风险本质关系理解不够和研究的不足,提出了风险视角下的信任关系理论模型和决策模型,详细分析并给出了信任与风险,以及信任决策与风险决策的本质关系,认为信任是风险的另一种表达形式,信任决策就是风险决策。通过对信任、风险和可信决策三者为一体的安全决策过程的分析,增强了安全决策的科学性,使得安全决策更加理性、全面和客观。     

食品科学与工程专业课堂教学方法的探讨

食品科学与工程专业是涉及多学科领域的应用性学科。为了培养具有扎实学科基础知识、创新精神和实践能力的高级科学技术人才。从案例式教学、发挥学生主体性、丰富教学形式与实行双语教学等方面出发,根据自身的教学经验,对课堂教学方法进行了探讨。     

青海4种抗旱树种水分利用效率对水分和光照的响应

为研究4种青海乡土树种的水分利用效率与水分和光辐射之间的关系,试验采用Li-6400光合测定仪测定净光合速率和蒸腾速率,并计算水分利用效率。结果显示,青海4个抗旱树种获得最大水分利用效率时的土壤湿度在16%~18%之间,光合有效辐射在1300~1600μmol/(m2·s)之间;比较红砂、洛基山刺柏、沙地柏和沙枣在同等土壤湿度情况下的水分利用效率,表明沙枣较其他3个高原树种更容易获得较大水分利用效率,即使在干旱土壤环境,沙枣对水分的利用情况也优于其他3个树种。表明,虽然青海4个抗旱树种均具有耐贫瘠、适应干旱环境的能力,但沙枣在高原极干旱地区适应环境能力更强,可通过速生树种与抗旱树种相结合的造林方式,缓解荒漠地区树种匮乏的压力,实现沙化土地的复绿工作。     

高抗性淀粉粳稻新品系稻米淀粉特性

【目的】比较分析高低抗性淀粉含量水稻品种（系）间淀粉主要特性差异。【方法】利用上海农业科学院最新培育的抗性淀粉含量有极显著差异的粳稻品种（系）“降糖稻1号”和 “金丰”,比较分析了支链淀粉链长分布和稻米RVA谱特征值及淀粉分子结构差异。【结果】结果表明,降糖稻1号短链部分所占相对比率明显低于金丰,而长链部分所占相对比例,明显高于金丰;降糖稻1号的最高黏度值,热浆黏度值,崩解值显著或极显著低于金丰,而消减值极显著高于金丰;淀粉颗粒热稳定性也较金丰高;降糖稻1号淀粉晶体主要为B型晶体和B、V混合晶型,而金丰淀粉主要为A型晶体和A、V混合晶型。【结论】高低抗性淀粉含量水稻品种（系）间支链淀粉的链长分布、直链淀粉含量、稻米RVA谱特性值和淀粉晶体结构有很大的差异,在育种实践中可作为育种选择指标之一。     

雷电灾害风险评估中P_B因子选取方法的分析及改进

在分析雷电直接击中建筑物导致物理损害的概率PB的影响因素的基础上,本文基于IEC62305推荐的不同防护等级的保护能力以及雷电流概率分布规律,推导出确定规范中LPL对应的PB因子优选值的一般过程。并针对推导过程完全依赖于规范推荐的防护等级及雷电活动特性,针对性差的特点,提出了根据建筑物直击雷防护实际情况以及项目所在位置雷电环境的统计特征确定PB因子的方法,该方法在一定程度上提高了PB因子选取的科学、准确性。同时,也对由于雷击物理过程复杂性、电气-几何模型的科学性、防护装置性能变化等使得PB因子取值中存在的问题进行了分析。     

抗草甘膦转基因大豆对根际土壤细菌多样性的影响

采用DGGE-cloning测序技术研究抗草甘膦转基因大豆在生长期内对根际土壤细菌多样性的影响。结果分析表明,不同生长期内抗草甘膦转基因大豆与非转基因大豆根际土壤细菌16S rDNA DGGE指纹图谱谱形相似,仅在出苗期和鼓粒期出现两条差异带,分别属于芽单胞菌门（Uncultured Gemmatimonadetes bacterium clone,缺失）和壁厚菌门（Uncultured Firmicutes bacterium clone GASP-KC3W1_H04,增加）;不同生长期内抗草甘膦转基因大豆与非转基因大豆根际土壤细菌16S rDNA DGGE指纹图谱的多样性指数和均匀度指数无显著差异。因此,抗草甘膦转基因大豆对土壤细菌多样性无显著影响。