移动智能体在森林病虫害专家系统中的应用研究

介绍智能体和移动智能体的发展及其技术理论。通过对移动智能体技术的分析,利用其移动性、能动性和交互性强的特点,提出将其应用到森林病虫害专家系统中,构建基于移动智能体的森林病虫害专家系统,进而提高专家系统的智能性,并对此系统的主要功能模块结构及其运行流程作了详细地阐述,对系统的发展前景作了展望。     

家具制造企业多中心智能制造共享云平台研究

随着我国制造业规模的不断扩大,智能制造转型升级迫在眉睫.经过对大量制造企业的市场调研,发现企业希望提供数字化设计、信息系统(ERP和MES系统)和设备一体化的解决方案,同时降低制造成本和供应链成本.为推动家具制造企业智能制造的发展,解决智能制造转型升级中面临的问题,基于未来制造业合作、开放、分享的发展方式,提出了"多中...     

智能商业时代下智能数据实现C2B模式的实践探索

智能商业时代已来临,在网络协同和数据智能的双驱动运作下,很多产品和企业将向C2B模式演变。基于供应链视角,着重分析拓宽智能数据对实现C2B模式探索实践的思路,重点阐述实现用户个性化需求与产业带上B端工厂对接的关键步骤、智能数据在定制化生产的应用,以及未来智能数据的创新体现形式。     

森林生态系统适应性管理的理论概念框架与模型

在研究森林生态系统适应性管理的基础上,对森林生态系统的适应性管理特征进行了分析,提出并建立了脆弱森林生态系统适应性管理的基本理论与概念框架;结合多智能体的特点和森林生态系统适应性管理的要求,构建了基于多智能体技术的森林生态系统适应性管理的总体结构模型,并初步阐述了模拟计算和分析方法。     

基于智能Agent的用户个性化信息检索系统模型

本文提出了一种基于智能Agent的用户个性化信息检索系统模型,通过多个Agent的协调工作为用户提供个性化服务。文章介绍了相关技术知识,描述了系统的结构及各功能模块的实现方法,分析了系统模型的工作流程,部分解决了信息检索中的技术问题,最后指出了以后的发展方向。     

板式家具结构设计有限元法研究综述

文中总结、分析了有限元法在板式家具结构设计中的应用现状,并对该领域的未来研究趋势进行了阐述。国内外现有研究主要集中于板式家具在静载荷下的强度或刚度的有限元分析,研究对象多为板式家具构件或整体,而大多忽略了节点对板式家具整体强度的影响。未来可进一步从以下几方面进行深入研究:1）板式家具节点有限元模型的建立及其简化方法;2）板式家具结构耐久性有限元分析方法;3）板式家具的整体结构优化方法;4）板式家具结构设计有限元模块的二次开发;5）板式家具的智能设计及制造系统开发。     

多平台林火现场实时监测技术研究

由于林火监测方式多样、信息标准化程度低、林火监测技术自成体系等原因,很难实现各林火监测平台之间的信息共享与协作,尤其是对林火现场的实时监测很难达到理想要求。为解决这一问题,文章基于多智能体系统建设思想,综合卫星遥感监测、无人机监测、无线射频传感器网络监测和自动气象站监测等多种林火监测平台,建立一个松散耦合的森林火灾火情监测的协作运行体系,并进行了一次林火现场点烧试验。结果表明,应用多智能体的思想建立的松散耦合林火协作监测体系可采集丰富的火场数据,实现对火场多方位的描述,为林火现场实时监测提供了新的思路和办法。     

基于单片机的智能温室控制系统研究与设计

介绍了一种基于单片机的智能温室控制系统,着重分析了该系统的组成、功能以及其软件的设计.使用证明,其性能稳定、可靠、智能性好.     

交易费用理论下基于模糊层次分析法的供应链分析

供应链系统作为一个复杂的经济系统,涉及的内容较广。本文简述供应链及其目前研究的主要内容,介绍制度经济学中的交易费用理论,以及交易费用理论的相关背景知识,提出供应链下的交易费用理论的影响因素,从宏观角度对复杂的供应链系统进行简要分析,采用模糊层次分析方法对同类型的多条供应链在交易费用理论的影响因素下进行分析和比较。其中模糊层次分析法是基于层次分析法的提升,对于模糊影响因素较多的决策评价目标具有很好地应用优点,为复杂系统提供了一种较好的评价方法。本文得出了供应链优劣次序,对于企业选择进入供应链系统具有一定的参考价值。     

智能视频监控系统在森林防火上的应用

智能视频监控系统是在传统视频监控系统的基础之上,通过在前端使用可编程三维精确定位摄像技术和烟火智能识别技术,在后端使用3D GIS技术和联网监控技术,并针对森林防火的实际需要在3D GIS平台之上开发了森林防火辅助决策及应急指挥平台。     

浅议工程合同的谈判技巧

当一项工程经过激烈的竞争终于获得中标资格后,接下来便是极为艰苦的合同谈判阶段,许多在招标、投标时不想说清或无法定量的内容和价格,都要在合同谈判时准确陈述。因此工程承包合同的谈判,预算的核对谈判,是企业取得理想经济效益的关键一环。     

基于供应链的河北省现代梨产业体系建设实证研究

应用供应链理论对河北省梨产业发展过程中存在的问题进行分析,基于协同、共赢理念对梨产业中种植、加工、包装、储运、营销和服务等各个节点企业进行系统整合,从而降低整个供应链成本,使综合经济效益达到最优。结合实证研究的方法,探索基于供应链的河北省现代梨产业体系建设路径并提出相应的对策。     

需求不确定情况下的供应链价格补贴契约研究

研究市场需求随机且受零售价格影响环境下单个供应商和单个零售商所组成的两级供应链，针对供应商和零售商的3种不同市场地位的情况，分析了价格补贴契约如何使供应链达到协调。结果表明：在3种情况下价格补贴契约都能使供应链协调。最后通过计算案例，得到了供应商利润和零售商利润随契约参数变化的情况。     

大数据视域下木材流通企业的供应链管理策略研究

随着我国社会主义市场经济体系的不断完善,现代化企业的管理模式和产业结构逐步科学化、精细化。而木材流通企业作为木材贸易的重要载体,应用先进的技术和经营模式强化供应链管理,有助于促进木材资源创造丰富的社会价值和经济效益。介绍了大数据环境下企业供应链管理特点,分析了木材流通企业供应链管理大数据优势,对大数据视域下木材流通企业的供应链管理进行展望。     

Roundwood supply in Norway: micro-level analysis of self-employed forest owners

This paper presents a short-run roundwood supply analysis of self-employed Norwegian forest owners, based on a two-period utility maximising consumption-savings model. The supply function was estimated by applying the Tobit model on an unbalanced panel of approximately 160 Norwegian farmers, from 1976 to 1997, representing a total of 3413 observations. Simultaneity between the single forest owner's harvesting level and his individual tax rate was allowed by estimating simultaneous equations Tobit models. The current roundwood price and standing stock per hectare had significant positive impacts on the supply, while harvesting costs, age of the owner, tax rate and lagged roundwood price (representing expected price) had negative impacts. Price and cost elasticities were relatively sensitive to the prices forecasted for the owners who did not supply roundwood in a given period. These results suggest that price subsidies and operating subsidies, as well as tax relieves, could increase the harvest level, which is considerably lower than the sustainable harvest level. An operating subsidy seems at least as efficient as a price subsidy, while tax reliefs are the least efficient of the three policy means.     

基于供应链管理模式下的采购评价指标研究

供应链管理模式下的采购管理作为一种适合新形势企业需求的管理，在企业中得到广泛运用。企业要通过采购活动补充物质能源才能向市场提供新产品，这就需要将供应链内部需求由企业向供应商企业进行采购订货。本文基于供应链管理模式下，运用层次分析法对供应链的采购评价指标进行分析研究。     

Japanese forest sector modeling through a partial equilibrium market model

The structure of Japanese timber markets has changed drastically during recent decades. After the introduction of a large amount of imported softwood products. Japanese timber producers have faced global competition with foreign timber suppliers such as Canada, the US, and recently Nordic countries. In this paper, we present a forest sector model for lumber markets with a focus on eight aggregate regions (Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu) in Japan. The proposed model is based on the Samuelson-partial equilibrium formulation, which searches for an optimal solution by maximizing the net social payoff subject to demand and supply constraints. A nonlinear programming solution technique is incorporated into the proposed model. Three types of lumber are considered,i.e., domestic lumber, the lumber processed in Japan from imported logs, and imported lumber from the US and Canada. Using data for 1998, our analysis indicates that the derived equilibrium solution has a higher price for the imported lumber supply in all regions, and a lower price for the other two products in most regions than the actual current price in 1998. The derived net social payoff gains 1.6% compared with the one derived with the current set of prices and quantities. This is research was supported by the Grant-in-Aid for scientific Research (No.11691090) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science, Sports, and Technology of Japan.     

Missing links between timber scarcity and industrial overcapacity: Lessons from the Indonesian Pulp and Paper expansion

Timber scarcity relates to the evolution of stocks in both natural forests and tree plantations, relative to the demand from timber processing industries. Several economic indicators are used to evaluate timber scarcity. In particular, the market price of timber stumpage is believed to send a signal to investors in timber growing and to further regulate mill investments, thus preventing industrial overcapacities from emerging relative to future available wood supply. Our analysis of the Indonesian Pulp and Paper industry, one that expanded impressively in the 1990's and installed large overcapacities, gives us the elements to discuss the applicability of market price as a scarcity signal. Specific conditions, usually found in the developing world, most importantly weak or compromised public governance, flawed corporate governance, and the monopsony character of wood supply mechanisms, prevent the development of a market price scarcity signal. In this paper, special attention is paid to the complexity of the wood supply chain and the nature of the actors involved. This, together with the absence of pricing transparency, allows industrial overcapacities to occur, leading to the depletion of the natural forest. A key unresolved mystery here is why the private capital providers made no effort to detect this obvious and critical risk to the repayment capacity of their investments. The apparent absence of any government role in enforcing sustainable harvest or capacity levels results from state capture and governance failure, topics fully discussed elsewhere in the Indonesian case. The situation has implications for supply modeling as well as for public and private policies.     

A Socio-Economic Analysis of French Public Timber Sales

This socio-economic study aims to better understand the functioning and the evolution of timber sales held by the French public forest service. The auction system is the historical institution which has been used for timber sales in France for centuries. The recent trend to develop supply contracts through private agreements has a major impact on the French timber industry, which is criticized for its lack of competitiveness. It accurately raises questions about the timber price issue. Indeed, the auction system plays an important role in price setting. We refer to the auction theory literature to examine the features of French timber auctions: first-price sealed-bid sequential auctions of heterogeneous standing timber lots. In particular, we note that seller's reserve price is kept secret and that, contrary to the general assumption in auction theory, the seller indubitably lacks information about his own reservation value. Finally, the difficulty of defining a “fair market price” remains a central issue in public timber sales.     

Consumer willingness to pay price premiums for environmentally certified wood products in the U.S.

Since its inception nearly 15 years ago, environmental certification has become an important issue in the wood products industry. One research question that has been examined is the potential willingness for supply chain participants to pay a premium for certified products or raw materials to offset certification costs. This study examines stated willingness to pay for four wood products from the perspective of U.S. consumers. Data was collected in 1995 and 2005 from the population of U.S. residential consumers to detect changes in willingness to pay for certified wood products along time and increase the statistical strength of the model. Results of an ordered probit model suggest that higher probabilities of paying a premium are associated to consumers who seek out certified products and who believe certification can lessen environmental impacts such as tropical deforestation. There is also a strong relationship between respondent income and willingness-to-pay. Despite the current industry structure in the U.S. that has adopted a mass-certification strategy that does not place price premiums on certified products, results suggest that such premiums may exist for imported certified tropical wood products. Analysis of marginal effects suggests consumers' willingness to pay a 10% premium for three of the four certified items studied. Niche markets may potentially be exploited in the U.S. and price premiums captured by wood products manufacturers in tropical regions and/or American importers.