Population differences in juvenile survival under increasing drought are mediated by seed size in cork oak (Quercus suber L.)

Many studies have focused on the physiological and morphological responses of Quercus suber to high temperatures and summer drought. Nevertheless, our understanding of the potential of this species to cope with climate change is incomplete. An increase in severity, length and frequency of summer droughts is expected in the Iberian Peninsula over the 21st century. We investigated the potential of cork oak to adapt to climate change in a 4-year study comparing seedling survival from thirteen Spanish populations in a common garden. Acorn size was evaluated as a possible adaptive trait enhancing stress resistance during establishment. Populations originating from sites with the driest summers exhibited the highest survival rates under dry conditions. These populations were characterized by bigger acorns, suggesting selection for this trait across sites experiencing drought. Our findings reveal that northern populations are not well adapted to cope with increasing drought but suggest that they might cope well with the moderate drought increase expected for these zones. However, continental populations are intermediately adapted to dry conditions, while drastic and fast increases in summer droughts are expected to occur in these regions. This extensive and quick change will provide scant chances to adapt making the populations of cork oak in these regions particularly vulnerable to the future climatic conditions.     

Using the high conservation value forest concept and Pareto optimization to identify areas maximizing biodiversity and ecosystem services in cork oak landscapes

Montados are silvo-pastoral systems, typical of the western Mediterranean Basin. When well managed, these ecosystems provide relevant ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. In the northern part of the Mediterranean Basin, cork oak areas are mainly privately owned and a source of income to landowners, chiefly through cork and livestock production. Sustainable use is essential to maintain the ecological sustainability and socio-economic viability of these ecosystems. Biodiversity conservation and non-provisioning ecosystem services may generate additional incentives promoting sustainable use and conservation of montados, but require adequate mapping and identification. The high conservation value forest (HCVF) framework allows systematic inventory of biodiversity and non-provisioning ecosystem services and is widely applied in forest ecosystems. Here we exemplify the application of HCVF to the cork oak landscape of southern Portugal using a WebGIS tool that integrates the HCVF framework, in conjunction with Pareto optimization, to identify areas important for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. We present a case study using threatened bird and reptile species, as examples of biodiversity attributes, and carbon storage and water recharge rate of aquifers, as examples of ecosystem services attributes. We identify those areas in a cork oak landscape of southern Portugal where biodiversity and ecosystem services attributes are optimized. These areas can be prioritized for implementing conservation mechanisms, such as payment for ecosystem services, to promote sustainable forest management.     

Quantile regression for modelling the impact of climate in cork growth quantiles in Portugal

The annual growth and the thickness of cork are known to be highly variable between trees located in the same geographical location. Researching how climate variables affect different trees within the same site is a step forward for the management of cork production since current knowledge focusses only on the average tree response. Quantile regression methodology was applied for the first time to a large data set containing measurements of cork growth, sampled in 35 stands across the cork oak distribution area in Portugal. This methodology proved to be useful for testing the hypothesis raised: does climate affect differently the annual cork growth, and ultimately cork thickness of individual trees located in the same stand? Estimating the amount of cork produced by one stand that has the required thickness for the production of natural cork stoppers is essential to support cork oak management. However, no model, before this work, had been developed to provide managers with this information. A downward parabolic relationship between annual cork growth and annual precipitation was determined for all quantiles, with optimum annual average precipitation value ranging from 1103 to 1007 mm. April to August monthly temperatures, spring average temperature or summer average temperature, showed a negative relationship with annual cork growth, in particular for lower quantiles. Maximum annual temperature was shown to negatively affect annual cork thickness, in particular for the trees under the 6th quantile. The ratio between annual precipitation and average temperature, that define the Lang index (LI), showed a downward parabolic relationship with annual cork growth. Best cork growth conditions are found for Lang index values around 60, corresponding for the transition between semi-arid climate and humid climate. The application of the final model developed for estimating cork thickness of an eight years’ cork growth period allowed the prediction and mapping of the percentage of cork suitable for natural cork stopper production. It showed that higher values are expected in the Southern and Central coastal regions and along the Tagus River basin. The Northern coastal and mountain regions, characterised by Lang index values higher to 60 (humid climates), present lower estimated values for the percentage of cork suitable for natural cork stopper production. The estimated values are expected to be reduced under climate change scenarios in the Southern and Central coastal regions.

     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus suber</Emphasis> forest and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus</Emphasis> plantations show different post-fire resilience in Mediterranean north-western Africa

Key message

In the African rim of the Western Mediterranean Basin, cork oak forests and pine plantations coexist. Under similar fire regimes, cork oak forest is more resilient in terms of habitat structure (canopy, understory, and complexity of vegetation strata) than pine plantation. By contrast, both woodland types show similar resilience in plant species composition. Resilience in habitat structure varies between the two woodland types because of the resprouting and seeding strategies of cork oak and pine species, respectively. These differences can be relevant for the conservation of biodiversity of forested ecosystems in a future scenario of increased fire frequency and scale in the Mediterranean basin.

Context

Wildfires have major impacts on ecosystems globally. In fire-prone regions, plant species have developed adaptive traits (resprouting and seeding) to survive and persist due to long evolutionary coexistence with fire. In the African rim of the Western Mediterranean Basin, cork oak forest and pine plantation are the most frequently burnt woodlands. Both species have different strategies to respond fire: cork oak is a resprouter while pines are mostly seeders.

Aims

We have examined the hypothesis that pine plantations are less resilient in habitat structure (canopy, understory, diversity of vegetation strata) and plant composition than cork oak woodlands.

Methods

The habitat structure and plant species composition were measured in 30 burnt and 30 unburnt 700-m transects at 12 burnt sites from north-western Africa, where the two forest types can coexist. Habitat structure and plant species composition were compared between burnt and unburnt transects from cork oak and pine plantation woodlands with generalized linear mixed models and general linear models.

Results

The results showed significant interaction effect of fire and forest type, since cork oak forest was more resilient to fire than was pine plantation in habitat structure. By contrast, both forest types were resilient to fire in the composition of the plant communities, i.e., plant composition prior to fire did not change afterwards.

Conclusion

The higher structural resilience of cork oak forest compared to pine plantation is related to the resprouting and seeding strategies, respectively, of the dominant tree species. Differences in the responses to fire need to be considered in conservation planning for the maintenance of the Mediterranean biodiversity in a future scenario of changes in fire regime.

     

Ectomycorrhizal inoculation with Pisolithus tinctorius increases the performance of Quercus suber L. (cork oak) nursery and field seedlings

Mediterranean ecosystems are characterized by large arid areas where the patchy distribution of trees offers little protection against harsh climate conditions for seedling establishment. Climate change is predicted to result in an increase in these arid regions, with pronounced effects on vegetation. Production of seedlings with developed ectomycorrhizas is a promising strategy for minimizing the initial transplant shock, thereby increasing plant survival and growth during the first, most critical years of a plantation. One important species in the Mediterranean basin is Quercus suber (cork oak), which occurs, together with other evergreen oak species, in an agro-silvo-pastoral system that represents an example of sustainable land use in Europe. In this study, a Pisolithus tinctorius isolate was used for ectomycorrhizal colonization of cork oak nursery seedlings, and the effects on aboveground plant growth and leaf structural and physiological parameters were investigated. Ectomycorrhizal development resulted in a significant increase in leaf area, dry weight, nitrogen content, and photosynthetic pigments, and mycorrhizal plants showed a higher photosynthetic capacity and water use efficiency. Nursery-inoculated plants established in the field showed increased survival and growth during the first year after transplant. These results indicate a potential for further enhancing the use of mycorrhizal inoculation as a cultivation practice in forest nurseries. Considering the difficulty of soil restoration under limiting environmental conditions, nursery inoculation with ectomycorrhizal fungi can be an important advantage for improving the quality of seedling stock and its performance after out-planting in the field, benefiting the regeneration of arid regions and the reintroduction of inocula of ectomycorrhizal fungi into these areas.     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

Simulating the effects of climate change on forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain,Southwest China

Forest gap models are important tools for assessing the impact of global climate change on forest dynamics of tree species composition and size structure. In this study, the FAREAST gap model was used to examine the response of forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain, which is located on the southeastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau, under three climate change scenarios. The simulated results showed that the climax community of the deglaciation slash would be mixed species of Picea brachytyla, Tsuga chinensis, and Pinus densata under climate change scenarios, as opposed to the pure Abies fabri forest under the current climate. Climate change also drove replacement of Populus purdomiis by Betula utilis, which became the most abundant pioneer tree species on the deglaciation slash. Under scenarios of climate change, three responses of the four typical forests distributed between 2200 and 3580 m above sea level are observed, such as dieback of today’s forest at 2200 and 3150 m, gradual change of the species composition at 2780 m, and afforestation at 3580 m. It is worth noting that the scenarios of climatic change are of inherent uncertainty, in the same way as the formulation of the ecological factors used in the models. It is suggested that simulations not be interpreted as predictions of the future development of the forest, but as a means of assessing their sensitivity to climate change. It is concluded that mountainous forests are quite sensitive to climate change.     

Factors affecting post-fire crown regeneration in cork oak (Quercus suber L.) trees

Cork oak (Quercus suber) forests are acknowledged for their biodiversity and economic (mainly cork production) values. Wildfires are one of the main threats contributing to cork oak decline in the Mediterranean Basin, and one major question that managers face after fire in cork oak stands is whether the burned trees should be coppiced or not. This decision can be based on the degree of expected crown regeneration assessed immediately after fire. In this study we carried out a post-fire assessment of the degree of crown recovery in 858 trees being exploited for cork production in southern Portugal, 1.5 years after a wildfire. Using logistic regression, we modelled good or poor crown recovery probability as a function of tree and stand variables. The main variables influencing the likelihood of good or poor crown regeneration were bark thickness, charring height, aspect and tree diameter. We also developed management models, including simpler but easier to measure variables, which had a lower predictive power but can be used to help managers to identify, immediately after fire, trees that will likely show good crown regeneration, and trees that will likely die or show poor regeneration (and thus, potential candidates for trunk coppicing).     

Landscape dynamics in endangered cork oak woodlands in Southwestern Portugal (1958–2005)

Cork oak landscape dynamics were assessed over a 47-year period (1958–2005) in an endangered region of southwest Portugal using a GIS approach. The area of cork oak woodlands was maintained during this period, but shifts due to land abandonment were evident leading to transformation of cork oak agriculture areas into woodlands and of cork oak woodlands into shrublands (average yearly change rates of 0.6 and 0.1%, respectively). The multi-temporal landscape analyses showed that expansion and regression rates of cork oak forests were similar (15 and 16 ha year⁻¹, respectively). The main factor determining oak woodlands expansion and regression was related to land-use changes, but slope, aspect and soil type were also significant factors. The substitution of agriculture lands and oak woodlands by shrublands has a determining role in periods of disturbance and recovery of these Mediterranean ecosystems.     

Temporal metabolic profiling of the Quercus suber–Phytophthora cinnamomi system by middle‐infrared spectroscopy

The oomycete Phytophthora cinnamomi is an aggressive plant pathogen, detrimental to many ecosystems including cork oak (Quercus suber) stands, and can inflict great losses in one of the greatest ‘hotspots’ for biodiversity in the world. Here, we applied Fourier transform‐infrared (FT‐IR) spectroscopy combined with chemometrics to disclose the metabolic patterns of cork oak roots and P. cinnamomi mycelium during the early hours of the interaction. As early as 2 h post‐inoculation (hpi), cork oak roots showed altered metabolic patterns with significant variations for regions associated with carbohydrate, glycoconjugate and lipid groups when compared to mock‐inoculated plants. These variations were further extended at 8 hpi. Surprisingly, at 16 hpi, the metabolic changes in inoculated and mock‐inoculated plants were similar, and at 24 hpi, the metabolic patterns of the regions mentioned above were inverted when compared to samples collected at 8 hpi. Principal component analysis of the FT‐IR spectra confirmed that the metabolic patterns of inoculated cork oak roots could be readily distinguished from those of mock‐inoculated plants at 2, 8 and 24 hpi, but not at 16 hpi. FT‐IR spectral analysis from mycelium of P. cinnamomi exposed to cork oak root exudates revealed contrasting variations for regions associated with protein groups at 16 and 24 h post‐exposure (hpe), whereas carbohydrate and glycoconjugate groups varied mainly at 24 hpe. Our results revealed early alterations in the metabolic patterns of the host plant when interacting with the biotrophic pathogen. In addition, the FT‐IR technique can be successfully applied to discriminate infected cork oak plants from mock‐inoculated plants, although these differences were dynamic with time. To a lesser extent, the metabolic patterns of P. cinnamomi were also altered when exposed to cork oak root exudates.     

Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance

We examined tree species responses under forest harvesting and an increased fire disturbance scenario due to climate warming in northern Wisconsin where northern hardwood and boreal forests are currently predominant. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with a gap model, which integrates soil, climate and species data, stratified by ecoregions. Such responses were quantified as species establishment coefficients. These coefficients were used to parameterize a spatially explicit landscape model, LANDIS. Species response to climate warming at the landscape scale was simulated with LANDIS, which integrates ecosystem dynamics with spatial processes including seed dispersal, fire disturbance, and forest harvesting. Under a 5 °C annual temperature increase predicted by global climate models (GCM), our simulation results suggest that significant change in species composition and abundance could occur in the two ecoregions in the study area. In the glacial lake plain (lakeshore) ecoregion under warming conditions, boreal and northern hardwood species such as red oak, sugar maple, white pine, balsam fir, paper birch, yellow birch, and aspen decline gradually during and after climate warming. Southern species such as white ash, hickory, bur oak, black oak, and white oak, which are present in minor amounts before the warming, increase in abundance on the landscape. The transition of the northern hardwood and boreal forest to one dominated by southern species occurs around year 200. In the sand barrens ecoregion under warming conditions, red pine initially benefits from the decline of other northern hardwood species, and its abundance quickly increases. However, red pine and jack pine as well as new southern species are unable to reproduce, and the ecoregion could transform into a region with only grass and shrub species around 250 years under warming climate. Increased fire frequency can accelerate the decline of shade-tolerant species such as balsam fir and sugar maple and accelerate the northward migration of southern species. Forest harvesting accelerated the decline of northern hardwood and boreal tree species. This is especially obvious on the barrens ecoregion, where the intensive cutting regime contributed to the decline of red pine and jack pine already under stressed environments. Forest managers may instead consider a conservative cutting plan or protective management scenarios with limited forest harvesting. This could prolong the transformation of the barrens into prairie from one-half to one tree life cycle.     

Application of biotechnological tools to Quercus improvement

The genus Quercus, which belongs to the family Fagaceae, is native to the northern hemisphere and includes deciduous and evergreen species. The trees of the different species are very important from both economic and ecological perspectives. Application of new technological approaches (which span the fields of plant developmental biology, genetic transformation, conservation of elite germplasm and discovery of genes associated with complex multigenic traits) to these long-rotation hardwoods may be of interest for accelerating tree improvement programs. This review provides a summary of the advances made in the application of biotechnological tools to specific oak species. Significant progress has been made in the area of clonal propagation via organogenesis and somatic embryogenesis (SE). Standardized procedures have been developed for micropropagating the most important European (Q. robur, Q. petarea, Q. suber) and American (Q. alba, Q. bicolor, Q. rubra) oaks by axillary shoot growth. Although regenerated plantlets are grown in experimental trials, large-scale propagation of oak species has not been carried out. The induction of SE in oaks from juvenile explants is generally not problematic, although the use of explants other than zygotic embryos is much less efficient. During the last decade, enormous advances have been made in inducing SE from selected adult trees, mainly specimens of pedunculate oak (Q. robur) and cork oak (Q. suber). Advances in the understanding of the maturation and germination steps are required for better use of embryogenic process in clonal forestry. Quercus species are late-maturing and late-flowering, exhibit irregular seed set, and produce seeds that are recalcitrant to storage by conventional procedures. Vitrification-based cryopreservation techniques were used successfully in somatic embryos of pedunculate oak and cork oak, and an applied genbank of cork oak selected genotypes is now under development. The feasibility of genetic transformation of pedunculate oak and cork oak somatic embryos by means of co-culture techniques with several strains of Agrobacterium tumefaciens has also been demonstrated. To date, most research on the genomics of Quercus species has concerned population genetics. Approaches using functional genomics to examine the molecular and cellular mechanisms that control organogenesis and or somatic embryogenesis are still scarce, and efforts on the isolation and characterization of genes related to other specific traits should be intensified in the near future, as this would help improve the practical application of clonal forestry in recalcitrant species such as oaks.     

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable conservation of energy implemented) and three climate models: the Parallel Climate Model, the Hadley CM3 model, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Since we model potential suitable habitats of species, our results should not be interpreted as actual changes in ranges of the species. We also evaluated both emission scenarios under an “average” future climate from all three models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Of the 134 species, approximately 66 species would gain and 54 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat under climate change. A lower emission pathway would result in lower numbers of both losers and gainers. When the mean centers, i.e. center of gravity, of current and potential future habitat are evaluated, most of the species habitat moves generally northeast, up to 800 km in the hottest scenario and highest emissions trajectory. The models suggest a retreat of the spruce-fir zone and an advance of the southern oaks and pines. In any case, our results show that species will have a lot less pressure to move their suitable habitats if we follow the path of lower emissions of greenhouse gases. The information contained in this paper, and much more, is detailed on our website: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas.     

Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US

Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth’s biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. Potential shifts in suitable habitat for 76 common tree species in the eastern US were evaluated based on more than 100,000 plots and 33 environmental variables related to climate, soils, land use, and elevation. Regression tree analysis was used to devise prediction rules from current species–environment relationships. These rules were used to replicate the current distribution and predict the potential suitable habitat for more than 2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. The calculation of an importance value-weighted area score, averaged across the five climate scenarios, allowed comparison among species for their overall potential to be affected by climate change. When this score was averaged across all five climate scenarios, 34 tree species were projected to expand by at least 10%, while 31 species could decrease by at least 10%. Several species (Populus tremuloides, P. grandidentata, Acer saccharum, Betula papyrifera, Thuja occidentalis) could have their suitable habitat extirpated from US. Depending on the scenario, the optimum latitude of suitable habitat moved north more than 20 km for 38–47 species, including 8–27 species more than 200 km or into Canada. Although the five scenarios were in general agreement with respect to the overall tendencies in potential future suitable habitat, significant variations occurred in the amount of potential movement in many of the species. The five scenarios were ranked for their severity on potential tree habitat changes. Actual species redistributions, within the suitable habitat modeled here, will be controlled by migration rates through fragmented landscapes, as well as human manipulations.     

Carbon sequestration of modern Quercus suber L. silvoarable agroforestry systems in Portugal: a YieldSAFE-based estimation

Modern alley cropping designs, with trees aligned in rows and adapted to operating farming machinery, have been suggested for Europe. This paper explores the potential for adoption of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) agroforestry in Portugal and estimates the potential carbon sequestration. Spatial modeling and Portuguese datasets were used to estimate target areas where cork oak could grow on farmland. Different implementation scenarios were then modeled for this area assuming a modern silvoarable agroforestry system (113 trees ha^?1 thinned at year 20 for establishing 50 trees ha^?1). The YieldSAFE process-based model was used to predict the biomass and carbon yield of cork oak under low and high soil water holding capacity levels. Approximately 353,000 ha are available in Portugal for new cork oak alley cropping. Assuming implementation rates between 10 % of the area with low soil water capacity (60 mm: 15 cm depth, coarse texture) and 70 % of the area with high soil water holding capacity (1,228 mm: 200 cm depth, very fine texture), then carbon sequestration could be 5 × 10⁶ and 123 × 10⁶ Mg CO₂ respectively. Due to higher yields on more productive land, scenarios of limited implementation in high productivity locations can sequester similar amounts of carbon as wide implementation on low productivity land, suggesting that a priori land classification assessments can improve the targeting of land and financial incentives for carbon sequestration.     

Regional impact assessment on forest structure and functions under climate change—the Brandenburg case study

A forest simulation model has been applied in a regional impact assessment to investigate impacts of climate change on forest structure and function in the Federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The forest model FORSKA-M was linked to a GIS that included soil, groundwater table and land-use maps. Two climate scenarios (current climate and a climate change of 1.5 K temperature increase which is combined with a precipitation decrease of 10–20% on average) for 40 meteorological stations in and around Brandenburg were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. Furthermore, the implications of vegetation changes for other forest functions were analysed by means of several indicators. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, measures of species diversity (Shannon’s and Simpson’s index) and habitat and structural diversity (Seibert’s index) were applied. The evaluation of impacts on groundwater recharge of natural and managed forests was carried out using the soil water balance model of FORSKA-M.At first, model simulations of the potential natural vegetation (PNV) on the whole area of Brandenburg with different climate scenarios were analysed. The results indicated that climatic warming would lead to a shift in the natural species composition in Brandenburg towards more drought tolerant species. The simulated diversity of the forests would be reduced, and groundwater recharge would be decreased.The majority of forests in the state of Brandenburg have been managed intensively in the past. At present, large areas of Brandenburg’s forests are dominated by pure stands of Scots pine, but current forest management practice aims at increasing the share of deciduous and mixed forests. In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, forest inventory data were used to initialise FORSKA-M with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with three different management scenarios showed that the short to mid-term effects of climatic change in terms of species composition were not as severe as expected. However, the comparison of different diversity measures indicates a decrease in the species diversity in contrast to an increase in habitat diversity under climate warming. Furthermore, a decrease in productivity and groundwater recharge was simulated under the climate change scenario.The regional impact assessment corroborated the high sensitivity of natural forests in the region to the projected climatic change and it underlined the importance of adaptive management strategies to help forestry to cope with climatic change.     

Oak decline in the Boston Mountains,Arkansas, USA: Spatial and temporal patterns under two fire regimes

A spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model is used to delineate the extent and dispersion of oak decline under two fire regimes over a 150-year period. The objectives of this study are to delineate potential current and future oak decline areas using species composition and age structure data in combination with ecological land types, and to investigate how relatively frequent simulated fires and fire suppression affect the dynamics of oak decline. We parameterized LANDIS, a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, for areas in the Boston Mountains of Arkansas, USA. Land type distribution and initial species/age class were parameterized into LANDIS using existing forest data. Tree species were parameterized as five functional groups including white oak (Quercus alba L., Quercus stellata Wangenh., Quercus muehlenbergii Engelm.), red oak (Qurecus rubra L., Quercus marilandica Muenchh., Quercus falcata Michx., Quercus coccinea Muenchh.), black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.), shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill), and maple (Acer rubrum L., Acer saccharum Marsh.) groups. Two fire regimes were also parameterized: current fire regime with a fire return interval of 300 years and a historic fire regime with an overall average fire return interval of 50 years. The 150-year simulation suggests that white oak and shortleaf pine abundance would increase under the historic fire regime and that the red oak group abundance increases under the current fire regime. The black oak group also shows a strong increasing trend under the current fire regime, and only the maple group remains relatively unchanged under both scenarios. At present, 45% of the sites in the study area are classified as potential oak decline sites (sites where red and black oak are >70 years old). After 150 simulation years, 30% of the sites are classified as potential oak decline sites under the current fire regime whereas 20% of the sites are potential oak decline sites under the historic fire regime. This analysis delineates potential oak decline sites and establishes risk ratings for these areas. This is a further step toward precision management and planning.     

全球气候变化对园林植物的影响

气候变化所引起的温度、降水和CO2变化影响着园林植物的物候和生物多样性.在气候变化的背景下,园林植物可以通过增强碳汇功能,改善植物配置等缓减气候变化.气候变化下园林植物未来的研究热点为：不同园林类型对气候变化的响应,入侵物种物候学的研究,极端气候对园林植物物候的影响,不同地域影响园林植物的主导因子,多种环境因子交互作用对园林植物的影响机理.     

Vulnerability of Pinus cembra L. in the Alps and the Carpathian mountains under present and future climates

Proactive management should be applied within a forest conservation context to prevent extinction or degradation of those forest ecosystems that we suspect will be affected by global warming in the next century. The aim of this study is to estimate the vulnerability under climate change of a localized and endemic tree species Pinus cembra that occurs in the alpine timberline. We used the Random Forest ensemble classifier and available bioclimatic and ecological data to model present and future suitable areas for P. cembra and estimate its current and future vulnerability. Future projections for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 were simulated using two IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios run under four global climate models.     

Rocky Mountain ecosystems: diversity, complexity and interactions

The interior west of North America provides many opportunities to study ecosystem responses to climate change, biological diversity and management of disturbance regimes. These ecosystem responses are not unique to the Rocky Mountains, but they epitomize similar scientific problems throughout North America. Better management of these ecosystems depends on a thorough understanding of the underlying biology and ecological interactions of the species that occupy the diverse habitats of this region. This review highlights progress in research to understand aspects of this complex ecosystem.