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Time series of European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) landings from 1962 and environmental variables from 1978 in the northern Alboran Sea are analysed. European sardine spawns in the northern Alboran Sea from mid‐autumn to late winter at a temperature range slightly higher than the one observed in the nearby Eastern North Atlantic and the North Western Mediterranean. Individuals hatched during autumn and winter are incorporated to the fishery during the following summer and autumn producing the maximum annual landings. These landings show both a decreasing long‐term trend and a strong inter‐annual variability. Although further research is needed, the warming trend of sea surface temperature and the decrease in upwelling intensity inferred from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses could have some influence on the negative trends of sardine landings. The inter‐annual variability of sardine abundance seems to be related to the wind intensity at a local scale, the second principal component of the chlorophyll concentration and the sardine abundance during the preceding year. If the inter‐annual variability is considered, a linear model including these three variables with a one‐year time lag allows to explain 79% of the sardine landings variance. If the negative linear trend is also considered, the model explains 86% of the variance. These results indicate that the body condition of spawners, linked to the food availability during the preceding year, is the main factor controlling the recruitment success. The possibility of predicting sardine landings 1 year in advance could have important implications for fishery management.  相似文献   

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Modeling the relationships between environmental factors and the distribution at sea of species of conservation interest can be useful in predicting their occurrence from a local to a regional scale. This information is essential for planning management and conservation initiatives. In this study, generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to investigate the influence of environmental, temporal and spatial variables on the catch rates of the twaite shad Alosa fallax (Lacepède) by the pelagic trawl fishery in the north‐central Adriatic Sea. Presence/absence and abundance [catch per unit effort (CPUE)] data between 2006 and 2012 were separately modeled, and the two models were then validated using a test data set. The most important factor influencing the presence and abundance of adult twaite shads was the spatial predictor (latitude × longitude). Two areas of major shads aggregations were observed, the most important of which being located near the estuaries of three main river systems of northern Italy. The twaite shad presence was also significantly affected by season, the largest and lowest occurrences being observed in autumn and spring, respectively. Among the environmental variables tested, only sea surface temperature was included in both models. Alosa fallax showed a wide thermal tolerance (6–27°C) with preference for temperature around 23°C. The model developed from the abundance data showed a moderate predictive power, whereas the accuracy of the presence/absence model was rather low. Some conclusions on the ecological requirements of A. fallax at sea arising from this study are useful to orient future monitoring and research programs and to develop effective conservation actions.  相似文献   

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