Multispecies fisheries management and conservation: tactical applications using models of intermediate complexity

Stakeholders increasingly expect ecosystem assessments as part of advice on fisheries management. Quantitative models to support fisheries decision‐making may be either strategic (‘big picture’, direction‐setting and contextual) or tactical (focused on management actions on short timescales), with some strategic models informing the development of tactical models. We describe and review ‘Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessments’ (MICE) that have a tactical focus, including use as ecosystem assessment tools. MICE are context‐ and question‐driven and limit complexity by restricting the focus to those components of the ecosystem needed to address the main effects of the management question under consideration. Stakeholder participation and dialogue is an integral part of this process. MICE estimate parameters through fitting to data, use statistical diagnostic tools to evaluate model performance and account for a broad range of uncertainties. These models therefore address many of the impediments to greater use of ecosystem models in strategic and particularly tactical decision‐making for marine resource management and conservation. MICE are capable of producing outputs that could be used for tactical decision‐making, but our summary of existing models suggests this has not occurred in any meaningful way to date. We use a model of the pelagic ecosystem in the Coral Sea and a linked catchment and ocean model of the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia, to illustrate how MICE can be constructed. We summarize the major advantages of the approach, indicate opportunities for the development of further applications and identify the major challenges to broad adoption of the approach.     

Primary fisheries management: a minimum requirement for provision of sustainable human benefits in small‐scale fisheries

The social and economic importance of small‐scale fisheries is frequently under‐valued, and they are rarely effectively managed. There is now growing consensus on how these fisheries could be managed for sustainability and to minimize the risks of crossing undesirable thresholds. Using a concept developed in health care, these approaches have been referred to as primary fisheries management. By encouraging the use of best‐available information in a precautionary way, the approaches will facilitate sustainable use and should therefore be encouraged, but they accept high scientific and implementation uncertainties as unavoidable because of limited management and enforcement resources and capacity. It is important to recognize that this limitation will result in social costs, because application of a precautionary approach in the face of high uncertainties will require forgoing potential sustainable benefits. Acceptance of primary fisheries management as a final and sufficient goal could therefore add a further constraint on the possibility of fishing communities escaping the poverty trap. Primary fisheries management should be seen as a first and minimum target for fisheries where there is currently no or inadequate management, but the longer‐term goal should still be well informed and adaptive management that strives for optimal benefits, referred to here as tertiary management.     

The interim management procedure approach for assessed stocks: Responsive management advice and lower assessment frequency

Stock assessments are often used to provide management advice, such as a total allowable catch (TAC), to fishery managers. Many stocks are not assessed annually, and the TAC from the previous assessment is often maintained in years between assessments. We developed two interim management procedures (MPs) that update the estimate of current vulnerable biomass from a surveyed index of abundance to adjust the TAC from a previous assessment. These MPs differ in how they handle uncertainty in observed indices. Using closed‐loop simulation, we evaluated the two interim MPs (with 10‐ and 5‐year assessment intervals) against several “status quo” approaches: (1) an annual assessment, and (2) a stock assessment every 5 or 10 years with (a) fixed TACs or (b) projections between assessments. We evaluated performance across three life‐history types and six operating model scenarios. The interim MPs performed similarly to annual assessments in terms of trends in biomass and yield, regardless of the assessment interval of the interim MPs. The interim MPs often produced more yield than the Fixed TAC MP with 10‐year assessment intervals, for example, in depleted scenarios. The Fixed TAC MP performed more similarly to interim MPs when the assessment interval for the Fixed TAC MP was decreased to five years. The interim MPs can also perform well when circumstances arise that are not accounted for in the Projection MP. Our results show that interim MPs should be considered for infrequently assessed stocks or rebuilding stocks, and highlight potential cost savings of interim MPs over annual assessments.     

Performance of regional fisheries management organizations: ecosystem‐based governance of bycatch and discards

A performance assessment was conducted of regional fisheries management organizations’ (RFMOs’) bycatch governance, one element of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. Obtaining a mean score of 25%, with a 64% CV, collectively the RFMOs have large governance deficits. Individually, there has been mixed progress, with some RFMOs having made substantial progress for some governance elements. There has been nominal progress in gradually transitioning to ecosystem‐based fisheries management: controls largely do not account for broad or multispecies effects of fishing, and cross‐sectoral marine spatial planning is limited. Regional observers collect half of minimum information needed to assess the efficacy of bycatch measures. Over two‐thirds of RFMO‐managed fisheries lack regional observer coverage. International exchange of observers occurs in one‐third of programmes. There is no open access to research‐grade regional observer data. Ecological risk assessments focus on effects of bycatch removals on vulnerable species groups and effects of fishing on vulnerable benthic marine ecosystems. RFMOs largely do not assess or manage cryptic, generally undetectable sources of fishing mortality. Binding measures address about one‐third of bycatch problems. Eighty per cent of measures lack explicit performance standards against which to assess efficacy. Measures are piecemeal, developed without considering potential conflicts across vulnerable groups. RFMOs employ 60% of surveillance methods required to assess compliance. A lack of transparency and limited reporting of inspection effort, identified infractions, enforcement actions and outcomes further limits the ability to assess compliance. Augmented harmonization could help to fill identified deficits.     

Examining common assumptions about recruitment: a meta‐analysis of recruitment dynamics for worldwide marine fisheries

Assumptions about the future productivity of a stock are necessary to calculate sustainable catches in fisheries management. Fisheries scientists often assume the number of young fish entering a population (recruitment) is related to the biomass of spawning adults and that recruitment dynamics do not change over time. Thus, managers often use a target biomass based on spawning biomass as the basis for calculating sustainable catches. However, we show recruitment and spawning biomass are not positively related over the observed range of stock sizes for 61% of 224 stocks in the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database. Furthermore, 85% of stocks for which spawning biomass may not drive recruitment dynamics over the observed ranges exhibit shifts in average recruitment, which is often used in proxies for target biomasses. Our results suggest that the environment more strongly influences recruitment than spawning biomass over the observed stock sizes for many stocks. Management often endeavours to maintain stock sizes within the observed ranges, so methods for setting management targets that include changes within an ecosystem may better define the status of some stocks, particularly as climate changes.     

Models for forecasting sandfish catch in the coastal waters off Akita Prefecture and the evaluation of the effect of a 3-year fishery closure

SUMMARY: The sandfish Arctoscopus japonicus in the coastal waters off Akita Prefecture had been landed in amounts of more than 10 000 t continuously from 1963 to 1975. From 1976, however, it began to decrease sharply and fell to only 74 t in 1984. The fishery society of Akita Prefecture closed the fishing from 1 September 1992 to 30 September 1995. Since 1995, the total allowable catch (TAC) allocated in each year has increased. However, the mechanism behind the increment of catch has not been clearly demonstrated. The aim of this study is to elucidate the mechanism behind the increase of catch using catch forecasting models constructed with past water temperature and catch data. The results were as follows: (i) the effect of water temperature in the depth strata 200–300 m, September of year t –1, t –2 and t –3 of station 1 would be important for forecasting the catch in year t; (ii) coastal catch in year t –1 and t –2 would be important for forecasting the catch in year t; (iii) the effect of a fishery closure would be significantly related to the period of the closure and the environmental condition such as water temperature; and (iv) the TAC system would be important for the recovery of stock and to avoid the depletion of abundance.     

Beyond Individual Transferrable Quotas: methodologies for integrating ecosystem impacts of fishing into fisheries catch rights

While there has been a growing concern for the adverse ecological impacts of fishing, progress on incorporating these into operational fisheries management has been slow. Many fisheries management organizations have addressed the problem of overharvesting and over‐capitalization first. In this domain, the question of access regulation has gained growing recognition as a key dimension of fisheries sustainability, leading to recommendation and progressive implementation of rights‐based systems, in particular Individual Transferrable Quotas (ITQs). While adjustments in fishing capacity resulting from the implementation of these systems may entail a reduction in some unwanted ecosystem impacts of fishing, it is also recognized that they will not be sufficient to achieve the ecological outcomes increasingly demanded by the global community. There is thus a need to examine the possibilities for a common management framework for dealing with both over‐capitalization of fisheries and adverse ecological effects of fishing. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of incorporating greater ecosystem goods and services into ITQ policy instruments initially designed with a narrow focus on commercial target species. We consider the advantages and limitations of alternative approaches in this respect and identify some of the practical issues associated with the different alternatives, in particular the underpinning knowledge requirements. We argue that given the need for increasingly streamlined management processes, further investigation into practical ways forward in this domain is crucial if management of fisheries is to achieve economic efficiency while fully encompassing the ecologically sustainable development objectives of ecosystem‐based fisheries management.     

Fishing impact and environmental status in European seas: a diagnosis from stock assessments and ecosystem indicators

Stock‐based and ecosystem‐based indicators are used to provide a new diagnosis of the fishing impact and environmental status of European seas. In the seven European marine ecosystems covering the Baltic and the North‐east Atlantic, (i) trends in landings since 1950 were examined; (ii) syntheses of the status and trends in fish stocks were consolidated at the ecosystem level; and (iii) trends in ecosystem indicators based on landings and surveys were analysed. We show that yields began to decrease everywhere (except in the Baltic) from the mid‐1970s, as a result of the over‐exploitation of some major stocks. Fishermen adapted by increasing fishing effort and exploiting a wider part of the ecosystems. This was insufficient to compensate for the decrease in abundance of many stocks, and total landings have halved over the last 30 years. The highest fishing impact took place in the late 1990s, with a clear decrease in stock‐based and ecosystem indicators. In particular, trophic‐based indicators exhibited a continuous decreasing trend in almost all ecosystems. Over the past decade, a decrease in fishing pressure has been observed, the mean fishing mortality rate of assessed stocks being almost halved in all the considered ecosystems, but no clear recovery in the biomass and ecosystem indicators is yet apparent. In addition, the mean recruitment index was shown to decrease by around 50% in all ecosystems (except the Baltic). We conclude that building this kind of diagnosis is a key step on the path to implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.     

Comparing GLM,GLMM, and GEE modeling approaches for catch rates of bycatch species: A case study of blue shark fisheries in the South Atlantic

Modeling and understanding the catch rate dynamics of marine species is extremely important for fisheries management and conservation. For oceanic highly migratory species in particular, usually only fishery‐dependent data are available which have limitations in the assumption of independence and if often zero‐inflated and/or overdispersed. We tested different modeling approaches applied to the case study of blue shark in the South Atlantic, by using generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), and generalized estimating equations (GEEs), as well as different error distributions to deal with the presence of zeros in the data. We used fractional polynomials to deal with non‐linearity in some of the explanatory variables. Operational (set level) data collected by onboard fishery observers, covering 762 longline sets (1,014,527 hooks) over a 9‐year period (2008–2016), were used. One of the most important variables affecting catch rates is leader material, with increasing catches when wire leaders are used. Spatial and seasonal variables are also important, with higher catch rates expected toward temperate southern waters and eastern longitudes, particularly between July and September. Environmental variables, especially SST, also affect catches. There were no major differences in the parameters estimated with GLMs, GLMMs, or GEEs; however, the use of GLMMs or GEEs should be more appropriate due to fishery dependence in the data. Comparing those two approaches, GLMMs seem to perform better in terms of goodness‐of‐fit and model validation.     

The Moray Firth Seal Management Plan: an adaptive framework for balancing the conservation of seals,salmon, fisheries and wildlife tourism in the UK

• 1. Within the Moray Firth, north‐east Scotland, there is a history of conflict between seals and salmon fisheries. Under the UK's Conservation of Seals Act 1970 (CoSA) seals are shot to protect fisheries. In 1999 six rivers in the Moray Firth were designated as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) for Atlantic salmon under the EU Habitats Directive, and in 2000 an SAC for harbour seals was designated in the Dornoch Firth.
• 2. In the 1990s salmon stocks declined. Fisheries managers believed the decline was partly caused by seal predation and consequently increased shooting effort. In years 1993–2003 Moray Firth harbour seal numbers declined possibly due to shooting, posing a potential threat to the status of the Dornoch Firth SAC. Meanwhile wildlife tourism based on marine mammals has increased. The declines in salmon and harbour seals, and the implementation of the Habitats Directive forced a watershed in the approach of statutory authorities to managing seals, salmon and tourism.
• 3. In years 2002–2005 local District Salmon Fishery Boards, the Scottish Executive, Scottish Natural Heritage and stakeholders negotiated a pilot Moray Firth Seal Management Plan to restore the favourable conservation status of seal and salmon SACs, and to reduce shooting of harbour seals and seal predation on salmon.
• 4. Key facets of the plan are the management of the Moray Firth region under a CoSA Conservation Order; application of the Potential Biological Removal concept to identify a limit of seals to be killed; management areas where removal of seals is targeted to protect salmon, while avoiding seal pupping and tourism sites; a training and reporting system for marksmen; a research programme, and a framework allowing an annual review of the plan.
• 5. The plan was introduced in April 2005. A maximum limit of 60 harbour and 70 grey seals was set. Forty‐six harbour and 33 grey seals were killed in 2005 while in 2006 these figures were 16 and 42 respectively. Although the numbers killed were below the maximum limits in both years the returns raised questions about the plan's ability to manage seal shooting at netting stations. The plan provides a useful adaptive co‐management framework for balancing seal and salmon conservation with the protection of fisheries and/or fish farms and tourism for application in the UK and internationally.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.