Market impacts of hypothetical fuel treatment thinning programs on federal lands in the western United States

This paper addresses the economics of forest fuel thinning programs on federal lands in the U.S. West, and presents a model of regional timber and product market impacts. The issue of economics is vital to the debate about fire management, and this paper presents market implications of two alternative silvicultural strategies, even-aged and uneven-aged thinning. Projections are based on a regional market model called FTM—West (Fuel Treatment Market model—West), which uses the method of price-endogenous linear programming to project annual market equilibria for softwood timber and wood products in the western United States from 1997 to 2020. The model takes into account variability in tree and log size, as well as economic effects of variable size class on harvest costs, log value, product recovery and mill capacity. Results show large potential market impacts from expanded thinning on federal lands, but impacts vary by silvicultural regime due to differences in size–class distributions of trees available under different thinning regimes. A hypothetical even-aged thinning program (“thin-from-below” strategy) results in net negative market welfare over the projection period (2005–2020), while a hypothetical uneven-aged thinning program (thinning based on stand density index) results in positive net market welfare. Net welfare results are the same over a range of different subsidy and administrative fee assumptions. An implication is that even-aged thinning regimes on federal lands in the U.S. West are less economical and therefore will be less effective.     

Sensitivity analysis of fire behavior modeling with LIDAR-derived surface fuel maps

Each year, wildland fires burn millions of hectares of forest worldwide. Fire managers need to provide effective methods for mapping fire fuels accurately. Fuel distribution is very important for predicting fire behavior. The overall aim of this project is to model fire behavior using FARSITE (Fire Area Simulator) and investigate differences in modeling outputs using fuel model maps, which differ in accuracy, in east Texas. This simulator model requires as input spatial data themes such as elevation, slope, aspect, surface fuel model, and canopy cover along with separate weather and wind data. Seven fuel models, including grass, brush, and timber models, are identified in the study area. To perform modeling sensitivity analysis, two different fuel model maps were used, one obtained by classifying a QuickBird image and the other obtained by classifying a LIDAR (LIght Detection and Ranging) and QuickBird fused data set. Our previous investigations showed that LIDAR improves the accuracy of fuel mapping by at least 13%. According to our new results, LIDAR-derived variables also provides more detailed information about characteristics of fire. This study will show the importance of using accurate maps of fuel models derived using new LIDAR remote sensing techniques.     

The economic viability and potential of a novel poultry agroforestry system

Investigating agroforestry systems that incorporate poultry is warranted in Northern Europe as they may offer benefits including: improved welfare and use of range; reduced feed costs; price premia on products; reduced payback periods for forests; and, greater returns on investment. Free-range egg production accounts for 27% of the United Kingdom egg market and demand for outdoor broilers is increasing. No research has been conducted recently on the economic viability of agroforestry systems with poultry. An economic model was constructed to: assess economic viability of a broiler agroforestry system; and, investigate the sensitivity of economic performance to key factors and interactions, and identify those which warrant attention in research and management. The system modelled is a commercial trial established in Southern England in 2002 where deciduous trees were planted and broilers reared in six- or nine-week periods. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation and financial performance analyses run for a 120-year period. An Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 15.5% is predicted for the six-week system which remains viable under a ‘worst case’ scenario (IRR of 12.6%). Factors which affect financial performance most (decreasing in magnitude) are prices achieved for broilers, costs of brooding houses, chicks, arks, feed and timber prices. The main anticipated effects of biological interactions on financial performance (increased ranging on feed conversion and excess nutrient supply on tree health) were not supported by analysis. Further research is particularly warranted on the welfare benefits offered by the tree component and its relation to price premia.     

Multi-attribute evaluation of landscape-level fuel management to reduce wildfire risk

This paper provides an example of the practical application of multi-attribute trade-off analysis (MATA) to wildfire management. The MATA approach supports more informed decision-making because it exposes important trade-offs among competing management objectives (requiring value-based choices), helps guide and structure necessary technical judgements, explicitly represents uncertainty (i.e., not just expected outcomes but risk profiles around outcomes) and addresses temporal trade-offs. MATA promotes critical thinking about what analysis is required for decision-making. A MATA approach can be applied for all types of forest and fire management decisions. In this paper, we provide a sample application of MATA to an evaluation of landscape-level fuel treatments for managing wildfire risk. The study area is located in southeastern British Columbia, Canada where historical fire suppression policies and expanding development in wildland urban interface areas have resulted in an increase in both the probability and the consequences of stand replacement fires. We specify management objectives and develop measurable attributes for fire management costs, timber supply, property damage, landscape-level biodiversity, local air quality and climate change. We then simulate the effects on these attributes of four alternative fuel management strategies that include combinations of mechanical treatments and prescribed burning over a 100-year period. The evaluation illustrates the key features of MATA while highlighting the benefits and challenges of implementing the approach.     

Optimal management of a flammable multi-stand forest for timber production and maintenance of nesting sites for wildlife

Decline of cavity-using wildlife species is a major forest management issue. One of the causes of this problem is the loss in cavity tree abundance, resulting from short rotation silviculture, stand-replacing disturbance events and timber harvesting in disturbed stands. Cavity tree availability cannot be guaranteed due to the stochastic nature of disturbance events. We developed a Markov model to predict future cavity tree availability under alternative tree felling and fire protection strategies using information on cavity tree dynamics and fire history. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to find a strategy that maximizes timber revenues less forest management costs, including the cost of an artificial nest-box program that must be implemented whenever cavity trees become critically scarce. The requirement to implement a nest-box program in such circumstances strongly influenced the optimal tree felling strategy and resulted in a higher probability of having cavity trees in the future. This reflected an increase in the retention of old growth forest and stands with fire-killed cavity trees as well as stands of younger trees to provide a future source of cavities. These results demonstrate the need to consider the costs of artificial habitat enhancement and the risk of future cavity tree scarcity in multiple-use forest management planning.     

Analyzing the effectiveness of alternative fuel reductions of a forested landscape in Northeastern China

Successful management of forest fire risk in the Northeastern China boreal forest ecosystem often involves trade-offs between fire dynamics, fire hazard reduction, and fiscal input. We used the LANDIS model to study the effects of alternative fuel reduction strategies on fire dynamics and analyzed cost effectiveness for each fuel reduction strategy based on cost–benefit theory. Five levels of fuel treatment area (2, 4, 6, 8, and 10% for each decade) and two fuel treatment types (prescribed burning [PB] and mechanical treatments in combination with prescribed fire [PR]) under current fire suppression simulated by LANDIS were compared in a 5 × 2 factorial design over a 300-year period. The results showed that PR scenarios are more effective at reducing the occurrence and burn area of catastrophic fires than PB scenarios. In addition, area burned by high intensity fire can be tremendously reduced by increasing low intensity fires with a higher level of treatment area under the various PR scenarios. The cost effectiveness of alternative fuel reduction strategies is strongly dependent on treatment area. In general, PB scenarios will be more cost effective in larger treatment areas and PR scenarios in smaller. We recommend mechanical treatments in combination with prescribed fire, with 4% of landscape treated in each decade (PR04) to be the optimal fuel reduction strategy in the study area based on risk control and cost efficiency analysis. However, the most challenging work in China is to make local forest policy makers and land managers accept the ecological function of fire on forest ecosystems.     

Spatial interactions and optimal forest management on a fire-threatened landscape

Forest management in the face of fire risk is a challenging problem because fire spreads across a landscape and because its occurrence is unpredictable. Accounting for the existence of stochastic events that generate spatial interactions in the context of a dynamic decision process is crucial for determining optimal management. This paper demonstrates a method for incorporating spatial information and interactions into management decisions made over time. A machine learning technique called approximate dynamic programming is applied to determine the optimal timing and location of fuel treatments and timber harvests for a fire-threatened landscape. Larger net present values can be achieved using policies that explicitly consider evolving spatial interactions created by fire spread, compared to policies that ignore the spatial dimension of the inter-temporal optimization problem.     

Integrating fire risk considerations in landscape-level forest planning

The low timber returns of Mediterranean forests, together with their high fire risk, has led to negligent forest management. Absence of management has in turn been blamed for increasing the risk of fire, thus forming a vicious circle of low profitability, little management and high risk of fire. Developing forest planning tools that maximize both economic objectives and fire resistance could help to revive the forest sector in the region and generate long-term fire prevention strategies. In the present study, we simultaneously maximized timber income and the overall fire resistance of the landscape to generate management plans for a typical forest landscape in the Pre-Pyrenees of Catalonia (North-East Spain). The risk of fire was integrated into the economic objective by incorporating potential fire losses in the expected net income. Landscape metrics describing fire resistance were also included in problem formulations. The results show that this approach greatly improves management efficiency in terms of economic profitability and fire resistance.     

Operational flexibility in forest fire prevention and suppression: a spatially explicit intra-annual optimization analysis,considering prevention, (pre)suppression,and escape costs

Increasing wildfire threats and costs escalate the complexity of forest fire management challenges, which is grounded in complex interactions between ecological, social, economic, and policy factors. It is immersed in this difficult context that decision-makers must settle on an investment mix within a portfolio of available options, subject to limited funds and under great uncertainty. We model intra-annual fire management as a problem of multistage capacity investment in a portfolio of management resources, enabling fuel treatments and fire preparedness. We consider wildfires as the demand, with uncertainty in the severity of the fire season and in the occurrence, time, place, and severity of specific fires. We focus our analysis on the influence of changes in the volatility of wildfires and in the costs of escaped wildfires, on the postponement of capacity investment along the year, on the optimal budget, and on the investment mix. Using a hypothetical test landscape, we verify that the value of postponement increases significantly for scenarios of increased uncertainty (higher volatility) and higher escape costs, as also does the optimal budget (although not proportionally to the changes in the escape costs). Additionally, the suppression/prevention budget ratio is highly sensitive to changes in escape costs, while it remains mostly insensitive to changes in volatility. Furthermore, we show the policy implications of these findings at operational (e.g., spatial solutions) and strategic levels (e.g., climate change). Exploring the impact of increasing escape costs in the optimal investment mix, we identified in our instances four qualitative system stages, which can be related to specific socioecological contexts and used as the basis for policy (re)design. In addition to questioning some popular myths, our results highlight the value of fuel treatments and the contextual nature of the optimal portfolio mix.     

Mastication and prescribed fire impacts on fuels in a 25-year old ponderosa pine plantation, southern Sierra Nevada

Due to increases in tree density and hazardous fuel loading in Sierra Nevadan forests, land management is focusing on fuel reduction treatments to moderate the risk of catastrophic fires. Fuel treatments involving mechanical and prescribed fire methods can reduce surface as well as canopy fuel loads. Mastication is a mechanical method which shreds smaller trees and brush onto the surface fuel layer. Little data exist quantifying masticated fuel beds. Despite the paucity of data on masticated fuels, land managers desire fuel loading, potential fire behavior and fire effects such as tree mortality information for masticated areas. In this study we measured fuel characteristics before and after mastication and mastication plus prescribed burn treatments in a 25-year old ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa C. Lawson) plantation. In addition to surface fuel characteristics and tree data collection, bulk density samples were gathered for masticated material. Regressions were created predicting masticated fuel loading from masticated fuel bed depth. Total masticated fuel load prior to fire treatment ranged from 25.9 to 42.9 Mg ha⁻¹, and the bulk density of masticated fuel was 125 kg m⁻³. Mastication treatment alone showed increases in most surface fuel loadings and decreases in canopy fuel loads. Masticated treatment in conjunction with prescribed burning reduced both surface and canopy fuel loads. Detailed information on fuel structure in masticated areas will allow for better predictions of fire behavior and fire effects for fire in masticated fuel types. Understanding potential fire behavior and fire effects associated with masticated fuels will allow managers to make decisions on the possibility of mastication to create fuel breaks or enhance forest health.     

Efficacy of mechanical fuel treatments for reducing wildfire hazard

Mechanical fuel treatments are increasingly being used for wildfire hazard reduction in the western U.S. However, the efficacy of these treatments for reducing wildfire hazard at a landscape scale is difficult to quantify, especially when including growth following treatment. A set of uneven- and even-aged treatments designed to reduce fire hazard were simulated on 0.8 million hectares of timberland in Colorado. Wildfire hazard ratings using torching and crowning indices were developed; stands were selected for treatment; treatment was simulated and hazard ratings were reassessed. The results show that the even-aged treatments initially place more area within our hazard thresholds than do the uneven-aged treatments and that the uneven-aged treatment that removes more small stems reduces risk more than the treatment removing more large stems. The treatment costs follow the same pattern, with the even-aged treatments costing least. However, potential revenues are, as expected, higher for the uneven-aged large treatment. The results also show that both higher costs and higher revenues accrue to the treatments applied to the higher risk stands. Treatments also have differing risk reductions depending on the initial risk category. Even without considering growth or revenues, the outcomes of a state-level treatment program are difficult to estimate. This implies that at a minimum, forest-level, if not state-level analyses including overall measures of risk reduction, costs, revenues and long-term effects need to be conducted in concert with setting priorities for treating timberlands.     

Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict stand growth and fire effects. Interest rate and fire risk are found to be critical determinants of the superior stand management system and timber supply. Uneven-aged management is superior with higher interest rates with or without fire risk. Alterations in the interest rate affect optimal stocking levels of uneven-aged stands, but have only minor effects on the long-run timber supply. Higher interest rates reduce rotation length and regeneration investments of even-aged stands, which lead to markedly reduced timber supply. Increasing fire risk increases the relative efficiency of even-aged management because a single age cohort is less susceptible to fire damage over the course of the rotation than multiple cohorts in uneven-aged stands. Higher fire risk reduces optimal diameter limit under uneven-aged management and decreases optimal rotation length and planting density under even-aged management.     

Willingness to pay function for two fuel treatments to reduce wildfire acreage burned: A scope test and comparison of White and Hispanic households

This research uses the Contingent Valuation Method to test whether willingness to pay increases for larger reductions in acres of forests burned by wildfires across the states of California, Florida and Montana. This is known as a test of scope, a measure of internal validity of the contingent valuation method (CVM). The scope test is conducted separately for White households and Hispanic households to determine if cultural differences influences whether the scope test is passed. The public program to reduce acres burned involved prescribed burning and a mechanical fuel reduction program. The results of CVM logit regressions show that the acreage reduction variable is statistically significant at the 1% level for the two proposed fuel reduction programs, and the two types of households. The positive sign of this variable means that the more acreage reduction proposed in the survey the more likely people would pay for the fuel reduction program. Because of the significance of the acreage reduction variable in the willingness to pay function, this function can be used to evaluate the incremental benefits of different forest fire management plans that reduce acres burned by wildfires. These benefits would be part of the justification for prescribed burning and mechanical fire fuel reduction programs to protect forests from wildfires.     

Effects of fuel treatments on carbon-disturbance relationships in forests of the northern Rocky Mountains

Fuel treatments alter conditions in forested stands at the time of the treatment and subsequently. Fuel treatments reduce on-site carbon and also change the fire potential and expected outcome of future wildfires, including their carbon emissions. We simulated effects of fuel treatments on 140 stands representing seven major habitat type groups of the northern Rocky Mountains using the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS). Changes in forest carbon due to mechanical fuel treatment (thinning from below to reduce ladder fuels) and prescribed fire were explored, as well as changes in expected fire behavior and effects of subsequent wildfire. Results indicated that fuel treatments decreased fire severity and crown fire occurrence and reduced subsequent wildfire emissions, but did not increase post-wildfire carbon stored on-site. Conversely, untreated stands had greater wildfire emissions but stored more carbon.     

森林生态资源配置中的市场失灵及其对策

森林生态系统是地球上最大的陆地生态系统。森林生态体系建设中的公益林,具有公共物品非排他性和非排斥性的特征,由此带来的外在性是市场失灵的一个重要因素,它将导致生态资源配置的长期低效。只有较好地化解市场失灵,才能有效地协调生态效益与经济效益,确保我国森林生态体系建设的优质与高效。本文通过对森林生态建设中市场失灵的分析,提出了产权结合,科斯定理,生态质量等级价格等对策,以修正市场的部分失灵。并探讨了木材价格变动对生态供给的影响,进而提出当木材价格变动时应适时调整生态质量价格,以保证有效的生态供给     

Linking the past to the future: A reality check on cross-border timber trade from Myanmar (Burma) to China

The rapid development of China's economy, changing of domestic forestry policy and economic globalization are gradually pushing China to the position of the largest timber importer worldwide. The issue of China's increasing timber imports is now receiving extensive attention from the international community. Existing studies that analyze China's global timber sourcing focus on international trade data or rules at a predominantly macro-level, while few empirical studies exist. This paper takes a grounded approach to empirically study the timber trade from Myanmar to China via Yunnan Province. Using a global value chain analysis, the research identifies the flow of timber along the value chain, the different actors involved in the trade, and the institutions that shape the actor's access to the value chain, before calculating the profits among the different actors. The results show the Sino-Burmese border timber trade originated from traditional border trade and was recently booming along with the economic development of China. Along the timber value chain, however, a few privileged actors parasitize the timber value by exploiting real market participants with the power entitled to them by both governments. The research argues the challenges to improve sustainable timber trade lie not only in national law enforcement, but also improving the governance structure of the value chain by improving the transparency and accountability of timber harvesting concessions and trade permits.     

Nonindustrial private landowners,fires, and the wildland–urban interface

We estimate the value to a non-industrial forest landowner of information about the magnitude of fire arrival rates. A simulation based on a model from Amacher et al. [Amacher, G., Malik, A., Haight, R., in press. Not getting burned: the importance of fire prevention in forest management. Land Economics] is used to assess the cost of mistakes made by a landowner when stand management decisions are made without perfect knowledge of the fire arrival probability. These costs are reflected in the higher losses incurred by a landowner if fire arrives during a rotation. The representative landowner studied in the simulation is assumed to value nontimber benefits, and to make rotation age, planting density and fuel reduction decisions. We find that the value of information about the overall magnitude of fire risk is more than twice as high when the landowner underestimates fire risk, rather than overestimating it.     

俄乌地缘政治冲突对全球针叶材供需格局的影响

文中构建涵盖19个经济体的全球针叶材区域价格均衡模型,模拟分析俄乌冲突引发的全球针叶材供需格局变化与调整。结果表明,俄乌冲突导致显著的贸易转移效应,俄罗斯和白俄罗斯2国对欧盟针叶材出口合计减少900万m3,对中国、埃及、土耳其出口合计增加543万m3;乌克兰对欧盟出口增加255万m3,对中国、土耳其出口则合计减少183万m3。俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的中国市场份额将分别达到29%和3%。俄白2国退出欧盟市场造成6%的供应空缺,而乌克兰可以填补其中的一半。俄乌冲突造成木材贸易出超方和入超方利益分化,全球整体福利受损,俄罗斯福利下降约1亿美元,中国、美国、日本等木材贸易赤字方分别减少4 300万美元、2 400万美元、600万美元,加拿大、欧盟、新西兰等木材贸易盈余方分别增加2 700万美元、2 200万美元、1 300万美元,全球总福利下降2亿美元。     

Spatial heterogeneity of dead fuel moisture content in a Larix gmelinii forest in Inner Mongolia using geostatistics

Spatial heterogeneity of fuel moisture content determines the spread rate and direction of a forest fire.Research on the spatial heterogeneity of the moisture content of dead fuel of Larix gmelinii Rupr.showed that:(1) fuel moisture content in litter layer semi-humus layer humus layer,and the coefficient of variation decreased with sampling depth;(2) the sill value of the semi-humus layer was highest,the humus layer moderate,the litter layer the smallest,overall,the spatial heterogeneity of the semi-humus layer was the highest.The humus layer in the slant direction and three layers in a vertical direction showed strong spatial correlation with the lowest nugget coefficient of 0.0968;(3)the fuel moisture content of the humus layer showed strong spatial anisotropy;and,(4) estimating the total moisture content of the sampling site by stimulated sampling reasonable control of the sampling interval,and increasing the sampling intensity can reduce the error.When the sampling intensity is increased to more than 16 and the sampling interval 3 m,the standard error is 15%.The spatial heterogeneity of fuel moisture content is best revealed by increasing sampling density,sampling in different fire seasons,and in different slope directions and positions.The results can provide a scientific basis for forest fire prediction and prevention.