互联网使用对农机服务采纳的影响及其异质性

现代信息技术在农业农村的普及促进了“互联网+农机服务”的融合,是提升农业机械化水平的重要路径,因而探究互联网使用对农机服务采纳的影响具有重要意义。以2014年、2016年和2018年的三期中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据为基础,利用面板Probit模型分析互联网使用是否会影响农户对农机服务的采纳及其异质性。互联网使用对农机服务采纳具有显著的正向影响,农户家庭互联网使用率每提高1个百分点,农机服务采纳概率增加0.068个百分点,运用工具变量法解决内生性问题后,依然得到稳健性结论;互联网使用对男性、中青年、较高教育程度农户农机服务采纳的影响更大,说明个体的学习与劳动能力会影响互联网使用的效果;互联网使用对无家用农机户农机服务采纳的影响系数为0.332远大于对有家用农机户的0.175,说明互联网使用是促进传统小农户农机服务采纳的重要手段;互联网使用对非平原地区农户的农机服务采纳显著为正,边际效应为0.114,比基准模型高出了0.046个百分点,说明互联网信息技术对非平原地区农业机械化发展具有突出贡献。因此,建立“互联网+”的农机服务信息平台,加大对农村地区互联网基础设施的建设,加强对农户的互联网信息技术培训,是支持农机服务业发展和推进农业机械化进程的重要政策手段。     

耕地细碎化对农业机械化的影响研究

农村家庭承包责任制的实行以来,以一家一户的小规模经营形式是农业生产的主要制度特征,随着耕地的减少,耕地细碎化程度越来越高,农户作为农业机械化的投资主体,必然受其影响.本文基于以往的研究和经验,设置变量构建模型进行定量研究,分析了耕地细碎化给农业机械化发展带来的影响,对政策制订具有启示意义.     

农地流转对劳动力资源利用效率的影响研究——基于阿瓦提县的调研分析

运用PSM模型,以实地调研数据研究农地流转对劳动力资源利用效率的影响。转入农地农户比未流转农地农户的农业劳动力资源利用效率和总劳动力资源利用效率分别高2 930.879元/人和2 547.636元/人,但转入农地农户的非农业劳动力资源利用效率比未流转农地农户的低6 701.481元/人;转出农地农户比未流转农地农户的非农业劳动力资源利用效率和总劳动力资源利用效率分别高2 982.759元/人和1 867.057元/人,但转出农地农户的农业劳动力资源利用效率比未流转农地农户的低1 431.492元/人。创新承包地流转政策的宣传方式,加大对承包地流转政策的宣传;拓宽非农就业渠道,提高非农就业收入;加大对农机补贴的力度。     

Policy reforms,rice production and sustainable land use in China: A macro–micro analysis

This paper presents a macro–micro analysis of the impact of policy reforms in China on agricultural production, input use and soil quality change for a major rice-producing area, namely Jiangxi province. This is done in three steps. First, a quantitative assessment is made of the impact of market liberalization policies on the economic environment of farm households in Jiangxi province. Econometric analyses based on provincial, national and world market data are used to explain changes in rice and fertilizer prices in Jiangxi province over time. Next, the impact of China’s recent income support policy and latest price trends on farm household choices with respect to activity choice (particularly rice and livestock) and input use (fertilizers, pesticides, manure) is assessed for two villages with different degrees of market access in north-east Jiangxi province. Two village-level general equilibrium models are used to analyse household decision-making and interactions between households within these villages. The parameters are estimated and calibrated from an extensive survey held in these villages in the year 2000. Finally, the impact of land tenure policy on farm management decisions (labour, manure and chemical input use), soil quality (available P and K and total N and C) and rice yields is analysed through an econometric analysis of plot-level data for three villages. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) is used to control for interactions with yields and for feedbacks towards input use. The paper ends with a number of suggestions for policy adjustments that would reduce the problem of natural soil compaction in the research area.     

A simplified input-output model for farming systems with varying input mixes. The case of peasant and state farms in Poland in the 1970s

A simplified input-output model of the two principal sectors of Polish farming, the peasant and the state farms, has been used to illustrate the direct and indirect impacts of production in these two groups of farms. The capital-intensive state farms may be depended upon to rapidly increase the market supply of food, provided the industrial inputs, such as fertilizers, machines and concentrate feedstuffs, are available. The peasant farms, on the other hand, require relatively less industrial inputs but market a lower share of their total output. They provide jobs for approximately a quarter of the national labor force, however, and most of the food consumed by the nearly ten million persons living in the 2.6 million peasant households is produced there and does not enter the market. A comparison of direct and indirect input-output coefficients has shown peasant farms to be highly productive, the principal factor being the abundant resource of cheap labor.     

Modelling the effect of household composition on the welfare of limited-resource farmers in Coastal Cañete,Peru

Family composition and its changes over time are believed to have a major impact on the welfare and sustainability of small-scale, limited resource farm households. In order to understand and test the effects of household composition on overall farm household well-being, a simulation model was developed based on information from 60 small farms from the Coastal Cañete Valley, Peru. The model accounts dynamically for the birth, age and death of household members and for crop, livestock, and economic activities. A representative farm with ten scenarios representing the range of household composition was simulated. Results in 10, 20 and 40-year runs showed that family composition has a large influence on economic stress. Families with fewer members were economically better off after 10, 20, and even 40 years. With more young or very old members, the expenses and consumption requirements exceeded the benefits from the additional labor, and debt was greater and of longer duration. Changing prices and yields across their observed ranged of variability influenced simulated financial position, but not the ranking of results among household composition scenarios.     

关键农机作业环节成本与收益研究——基于山西省农机户问卷调查

作为刺激农机化发展的动因,农机户对农机社会化服务的经济效益极为重视,而农机作业效益又是以农机作业成本为基础计算的。为此,基于山西省农机户的问卷调查,对山西省现有的关键农机作业环节的成本进行了分析,并通过本量利分析计算得出了每项农机作业环节的盈亏平衡点作业量,进而使用敏感性分析分析了燃油费用变动对农机作业经济效果的影响程度,最后提出了提高农机作业经济效益的对策方针。     

论江苏省农机社会化服务体系建设

农机社会化服务体系建设是经济社会发展的产物，是稳定和完善承包责任制，促进农村社会生产力的发展，率先基本实现农业现代化和小康社会的重要措施。实现农机资源的有效配置．科学合理构建农机社会化服务体系框架，以县、乡农机综合服务站为导向，以农机户为主体，以中介服务组织为纽带，是建设具有江苏省特色的农机社会化服务体系的正确途径。     

农户对农机服务购买行为的差异性分析——基于303份微观调查数据的研究

为分析农户的农机服务采纳行为的主要影响因素,以湖北省和山东省的303份农户层面微观调查数据为例,采用Probit模型和Logstic模型分析影响农户采纳农机服务行为机理。研究结果表明:农户的身体健康状况、耕地是否有坡地、耕地块数及是否有非农经历均对农户的机耕、机收以及机播是否购买农机服务有着显著影响,且农户对于不同环节(机耕、机播以及机收)农机服务的购买行为的影响因素及程度均有所差异;农户身体健康状况、拥有农机现值、是否务工兼顾种植,以及耕地是否有坡地均对农户采纳农机服务的数量有显著性影响。     

The diversity of rural livelihoods and their influence on soil fertility in agricultural systems of East Africa - A typology of smallholder farms

Technological interventions to address the problem of poor productivity of smallholder agricultural systems must be designed to target socially diverse and spatially heterogeneous farms and farming systems. This paper proposes a categorisation of household diversity based on a functional typology of livelihood strategies, and analyses the influence of such diversity on current soil fertility status and spatial variability on a sample of 250 randomly selected farms from six districts of Kenya and Uganda. In spite of the agro-ecological and socio-economic diversity observed across the region (e.g. 4 months year⁻¹ of food self-sufficiency in Vihiga, Kenya vs. 10 in Tororo, Uganda) consistent patterns of variability were also observed. For example, all the households with less than 3 months year⁻¹ of food self-sufficiency had a land:labour ratio (LLR) < 1, and all those with LLR > 1 produced enough food to cover their diet for at least 5 months. Households with LLR < 1 were also those who generated more than 50% of their total income outside the farm. Dependence on off/non-farm income was one of the main factors associated with household diversity. Based on indicators of resource endowment and income strategies and using principal component analysis, farmers’ rankings and cluster analysis the 250 households surveyed were grouped into five farm types: (1) Farms that rely mainly on permanent off-farm employment (from 10 to 28% of the farmers interviewed, according to site); (2) larger, wealthier farms growing cash crops (8-20%); (3) medium resource endowment, food self-sufficient farms (20-38%); (4) medium to low resource endowment relying partly on non-farm activities (18-30%); and (5) poor households with family members employed locally as agricultural labourers by wealthier farmers (13-25%). Due to differential soil management over long periods of time, and to ample diversity in resource endowments (land, livestock, labour) and access to cash, the five farm types exhibited different soil carbon and nutrient stocks (e.g. Type 2 farms had average C, N, P and K stocks that were 2-3 times larger than for Types 4 or 5). In general, soil spatial variability was larger in farms (and sites) with poorer soils and smaller in farms owning livestock. The five farm types identified may be seen as domains to target technological innovations and/or development efforts.     

黑龙江省农机合作社助农增收绩效评价——基于DID模型的实证研究

使用DID模型来评价黑龙江省农机合作社助农增收的绩效,模型估计结果表明:农机合作社社员与非社员相比,农户家庭总收入、工资性收入、财产性收入、转移性收入显著增加,经营性收入显著减少。因此,农机合作社作为新型农业经营主体,在助农增收方面效果显著。引入控制变量后,户主年龄与家庭收入呈负相关;家庭人数与家庭收入呈正相关;户主受教育程度、人均耕地面积、非农收入所占比重、是否在社内打工与家庭总收入、工资性收入、财产性收入、转移性收入呈正相关,与经营性收入呈负相关。     

Sustainable land use and food security in developing countries: DLV's approach to policy support

During the past decades, major changes have taken place with regard to the available policy instruments for food security and rural development. These changes are reviewed against the background of the structural adjustment programmes carried out in the agricultural sector. The linkages between agricultural policy and farmers' supply response are discussed, emphasizing the influence of macro-policy for decision-making at the micro-level of a farm household. An integrated bio-economic modelling framework is presented that allows a better understanding of the effects of macro and sectoral policy interventions for food security and sustainable land use at the farm and (sub)regional level. Critical areas where the understanding of macro–micro linkages is still weak are identified. Major conclusions regarding a suitable analytical framework for policy analysis and support are presented.     

农业保险对土地规模化经营的影响——基于耕地转入视角

在国家倡导土地适度规模化经营背景下,如何有效提升农户土地流转的交易效率显得尤为重要。基于内蒙古650个农户的调研数据,在考虑农业保险与土地规模经营间双内生性和交互影响基础上,通过似不相关Biprobit和MV Tobit模型,从农户耕地转入的行为决策视角,探索当前政策性农业保险对实现土地规模经营的影响效应。结果显示,农业保险对农户是否转入耕地及耕地转入规模均产生显著的正向影响,农业保险每增加一个单位,农户发生耕地转入行为的可能性就会上升10.9%,耕地转入规模与农业保险保费支出两变量间的相关系数高达1.194,提升农民家庭扩大土地经营规模的可能性。此外,受访者年龄、文化程度、家庭成员健康状况、劳动力流动、农业机械价值、兼业情况、农业合作社及耕地转入价格等因素也是影响农户耕地转入行为发生的重要因素。建议今后要积极发挥农业保险对农民土地流转理性参与的促进作用,提高农民土地流转交易能力,并规范农地流转中介组织的发展,以农民为核心优化服务运行环境,降低土地规模化经营的风险。     

城镇化水平、农业劳动生产率与城乡融合发展——以吉林省为例

根据刘易斯的二元经济理论，城镇化水平的提高有利于促进农业劳动生产率的增长，实现城乡融合发展。以吉林省各县为样本，利用《吉林统计年鉴》中吉林省39个县2004—2019年的数据，构建面板数据向量自回归模型(PVAR)，通过格兰杰因果检验验证城镇化水平、农业劳动生产率和城乡融合发展之间的格兰杰因果关系，并通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解，对各变量长期的动态关系进行预测。结果发现，城镇化水平、农业劳动生产率和城乡融合发展之间具有显著的相关关系；且在短期时间内，来自农业劳动生产率的正向冲击能够对城乡融合发展产生正向促进作用；来自人口城镇化水平的正向冲击能够对农业劳动生产率产生正向促进作用，对城乡融合发展产生负向作用。在未来的1期、5期和10期内，来自农业劳动生产率、人口城镇化水平和产业城镇化水平的冲击对城乡融合发展的贡献率分别为7.05%、6.79%、6.82%，238%、2.19%、2.20%和4.39%、6.80%、6.86%，3个变量对城乡融合发展的冲击效果不强，且随着时间变化没有明显的增长趋势。     

Poverty dynamics and the role of livestock in the Peruvian Andes

Livestock play an important role for poor rural households in regions such as the Peruvian Andes. Research methods leading to a better understanding of the role of livestock in household poverty dynamics, and what better targeted policies and interventions may enhance that role, however, are not readily available. We utilized multiple methods, including Stages-of-Progress and household surveys, which gave us a combination of qualitative and quantitative results. We examined how over the last 10 and 25 years households have moved into and out of poverty in 40 rural communities in two different highland regions of Peru. We also examined the role played in these movements by different livestock assets and strategies. We found a significant number of households had escaped poverty, while at the same time many households have fallen into poverty. The reasons for movements up versus down are not the same, with different strategies and policies needed to address escapes versus descents. Diversification of income through livestock and intensification of livestock activities through improved breeds has helped many households escape poverty and this method allowed us to explore what exactly this means in the diverse areas studied. These findings can contribute to better targeted livestock-related research and development strategies and policies, not only in Peru, but in other regions where similar livelihood strategies are being pursued.     

Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

Application of a simulation model for assessing integration of smallholder shifting cultivation and sheep production in Yucatán, Mexico

Simulation models are effective tools to examine interactions between livestock, cropping systems, households, and natural resources. Our study objective was to use an integrated livestock and crop model to assess the outcomes from selected suites of management decisions observed in smallholder sheep-cropping systems of Yucatán, Mexico. The scenarios contrasted specialized systems versus mixed farming, and evaluated the outcomes of increased crop-livestock integration. Mixed enterprise scenarios involving sheep provided more income than specialized enterprises, and capitalized on a lower price of on-farm maize grain, efficient utilization of surplus labor, and availability of common land. Labor and management income was greatest for the unintegrated and partially integrated crop and livestock scenarios. It was more profitable for producers to sell excess grain and maize stover, and use common land to feed the livestock, suggesting that increased integration does not always result in improved outcomes. The results are consistent with a system not yet pushed to the point where integration is inevitable. For all sets of scenarios, the model structure was able to accommodate subtle management differences to produce appropriate biophysical, labor, and economic outcomes. We conclude there is potential to use similar model development methods to describe other crop-livestock systems, thus providing tools for learning, scenario analysis, and impact assessment.     

山东省农业现代化建设现状及发展建议——基于农业劳动力数量

基于2008-2019年山东省农业就业人口数量,运用Stata软件对影响山东省农业就业人口的因素进行OLS多元线性回归分析。研究结论：化肥施用量、有效耕作面积、农民实际可支配收入3个变量对山东省农业劳动力数量影响最显著,扩大有效耕作面积对山东省吸引农业劳动力起正向影响,而限制化肥施用与农民实际可支配收入增加对山东省农业劳动力增长起反向影响。据此,在山东省提升机械化程度、提高农业就业质量,优化农业空间布局、实施新型城镇化战略,健全惠农强农体系、为农业就业者提供保障等方面实行切实有效的措施,从而推进山东省农业现代化建设。     

中国农业资本深化对农业经济的影响

我国作为农业大国,三农问题是我国长期发展中高度重视的问题。随着农业资本深化,农民劳动积极性得到了较大的调动,中国农业资本深化情况与劳动生产率息息相关。为了使我国完善资本深化,对我国现阶段农业资本深化现状做出讨论以及分析了农业资本深化对农民产生的影响。      

山东省农业现代化建设现状及发展建议

基于2008－2019年山东省农业就业人口数量,运用Stata软件对影响山东省农业就业人口的因素进行OLS多元线性回归分析。研究结论:化肥施用量、有效耕作面积、农民实际可支配收入3个变量对山东省农业劳动力数量影响最显著,扩大有效耕作面积对山东省吸引农业劳动力起正向影响,而限制化肥施用与农民实际可支配收入增加对山东省农业劳动力增长起反向影响。据此,在山东省提升机械化程度、提高农业就业质量,优化农业空间布局、实施新型城镇化战略,健全惠农强农体系、为农业就业者提供保障等方面实行切实有效的措施,从而推进山东省农业现代化建设。