Impact of human interventions on the spread of bluetongue virus serotype 8 during the 2006 epidemic in north-western Europe

Bluetongue virus (BTV) can be spread by movement or migration of infected ruminants. Infected midges (Culicoides sp.) can be dispersed with livestock or on the wind. Transmissions of infection from host to host by semen and trans-placental infection of the embryo from the dam have been found. As for any infectious animal disease, the spread of BTV can be heavily influenced by human interventions preventing or facilitating the transmission pathways. This paper describes the results of investigations that were conducted on the potential role of the above-mentioned human interventions on the spread of BTV-8 during the 2006 epidemic in north-western Europe. Data on surveillance and control measures implemented in the affected European Union (EU) Member States (MS) were extracted from the legislation and procedures adopted by the national authorities in Belgium, France, Germany, and The Netherlands. The impact of the control measures on the BTV-incidence in time and space was explored. Data on ruminant transports leaving the area of first infection (AFI) to other areas within and beyond the affected MS were obtained from the national identification and registration systems of the three initially affected MS (Belgium, Germany, The Netherlands) and from the Trade Control and Expert System (TRACES) of the European Commission. The association between the cumulative number of cases that occurred in a municipality outside the AFI and the number of movements or the number of animals moved from the AFI to that municipality was assessed using a linear negative binomial regression model. The results of this study indicated that the control measures which were implemented in the affected MS (in accordance with EU directives) were not able to fully stop further spread of BTV and to control the epidemic. This finding is not surprising because BT is a vector-borne disease and it is difficult to limit vector movements. We could not assess the consequences of not taking control measures at all but it is possible, if not most likely, that this would have resulted in even wider spread. The study also showed an indication of the possible involvement of animal movements in the spread of BTV during the epidemic. Therefore, the prevention of animal movements remains an important tool to control BTV outbreaks. The extension of the epidemic to the east cannot be explained by the movement of animals, which mainly occurred in a north-western direction. This indicates that it is important to consider other influential factors such as dispersal of infected vectors depending on wind direction, or local spread.     

Epidemiology of bluetongue virus serotype 8 outbreaks in the Netherlands in 2006

In August 2006 a major epidemic of Bluetongue (BT) occurred in north-western Europe, affecting The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Luxemburg, and the north of France. It was caused by Br virus serotype 8 (BTV-8), a serotype previously unknown to the EU. Although clinical disease is usually restricted to sheep, this virus also caused clinical disease in a small proportion of cattle. The last clinical outbreak of BT in The Netherlands occurred mid-December 2006. The delay between observation of the first clinical signs by the owner and reporting of a clinically suspect BT situation to the veterinary authorities was approximately 2 weeks. BTV-8-associated clinical signs were more prominent in sheep than in cattle, and the relative frequency of specific clinical signs was different in cattle and sheep. Morbidity and mortality rates were significantly higher among sheep than among cattle, and a higher proportion of cattle than sheep recovered from clinical disease.     

Possible routes of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 8 into the epicentre of the 2006 epidemic in north-western Europe

In August 2006, bluetongue (BT) was notified in The Netherlands on several animal holdings. This was the onset of a rapidly spreading BT-epidemic in north-western Europe (latitude >51 degrees N) that affected cattle and sheep holdings in The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France and Luxembourg. The outbreaks were caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8, which had not been identified in the European Union before. Bluetongue virus can be introduced into a free area by movement of infected ruminants, infected midges or by infected semen and embryos. In this study, information on animal movements or transfer of ruminant germ plasms (semen and embryos) into the Area of First Infection (AFI), which occurred before and during the onset of the epidemic, were investigated in order to establish the conditions for the introduction of this virus. All inbound transfers of domestic or wild ruminants, non-susceptible mammal species and ruminant germ plasms into the AFI during the high-risk period (HRP), registered by the Trade Control and Expert System (TRACES) of the EC, were obtained. Imports originating from countries with a known or suspected history of BTV-incidence of any serotype were identified. The list of countries with a reported history of BTV incidence was obtained from the OIE Handistatus II for the period from 1996 until 2004. No ruminants were imported from a Member State (MS) with a known history of BTV-8 or from any other country with a known or suspected history of BTV incidence of any serotype. Of all non-susceptible mammal species only 233 horses were transported directly into the AFI during the HRP. No importations of semen or embryos into the AFI were registered in TRACES during the period of interest. An obvious source for the introduction of BTV-8, such as import of infected ruminants, could not be identified and the exact origin and route of the introduction of BTV-8 thus far remains unknown. However, the absence of legal import of ruminants from outside the EU into the AFI and the absence of BTV-8 in southern Europe suggest that, the introduction of the BTV-8 infection into the north-western part of Europe took place via another route. Specifically, in relation to this, the potential for Culicoides to be imported along with or independently of the import of animals, plants or other 'materials', and the effectiveness of measures to reduce such a possibility, merit further study.     

Establishing the spread of bluetongue virus at the end of the 2006 epidemic in Belgium

Bluetongue (BT) was notified for the first time in several Northern European countries in August 2006. The first reported outbreaks of BT were confirmed in herds located near the place where Belgium, The Netherlands and Germany share borders. The disease was rapidly and widely disseminated throughout Belgium in both sheep and cattle herds. During the epidemic, case reporting by the Veterinary Authorities relied almost exclusively on the identification of herds with confirmed clinical infected ruminants. A cross-sectional serological survey targeting all Belgian ruminants was then undertaken during the vector-free season. The first objective of this study was to provide unbiased estimates of BT-seroprevalence for different regions of Belgium. Since under-reporting was suspected during the epidemic, a second goal was to compare the final dispersion of the virus based on the seroprevalence estimates to the dispersion of the confirmed clinical cases which were notified in Belgium, in order to estimate the accuracy of the case detection based on clinical suspicion. True within-herd seroprevalence was estimated based on a logistic-normal regression model with prior specification on the diagnostic test's sensitivity and specificity. The model was fitted in a Bayesian framework. Herd seroprevalence was estimated using a logistic regression model. To study the linear correlation between the BT winter screening data and the case-herds data, the linear predicted values for the herd prevalence were compared and the Pearson correlation coefficient was estimated. The overall herd and true within-herd seroprevalences were estimated at 83.3 (79.2-87.0) and 23.8 (20.1-28.1)%, respectively. BT seropositivity was shown to be widely but unevenly distributed throughout Belgium, with a gradient decreasing towards the south and the west of the country. The analysis has shown there was a strong correlation between the outbreak data and the data from the survey (r=0.73, p<0.0001). The case detection system based on clinical suspicion underestimated the real impact of the epidemic, but indicated an accurate spatial distribution of the virus at the end of the epidemic.     

Quantitative analysis of transmission parameters for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Western Europe in 2006

ABSTRACT: The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures.To quantify virus transmission between herds, a temporal and a spatio-temporal analysis were applied to data on reported infected herds in 2006. We calculated the basic reproduction number between herds (Rh: expected number of new infections, generated by one initial infected herd in a susceptible environment). It was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that of an infection with Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in The Netherlands, e.g. around 4. We concluded that an average day temperature of at least 15°C is required for BTV-8 transmission between herds in Western Europe. A few degrees increase in temperature is found to lead to a major increase in BTV-8 transmission.We also found that the applied disease control (spatial zones based on 20 km radius restricting animal transport to outside regions) led to a spatial transmission pattern of BTV-8, with 85% of transmission restricted to a 20 km range. This 20 km equals the scale of the protection zones. We concluded that free animal movement led to substantial faster spread of the BTV-8 epidemic over space as compared to a situation with animal movement restrictions.     

Culicoides trapping with Rothamsted suction traps before and during the bluetongue epidemic of 2006 in Belgium

The collection of biting midges was taking place some months before the first bluetongue outbreak in Belgium in August 2006. The Walloon Agricultural Research Centre had been monitoring aphid populations at two sites annually in Belgium (Gembloux and Libramont), using two stationary '12-m' Rothamsted suction traps. For the Gembloux trap, collections of insects captured daily from 11 May 2006 onwards were already available at the time of the outbreak. An examination of these samples revealed the presence of Culicoides, some species of which are considered as potential vectors of the bluetongue virus (BTV). The trapping was therefore extended beyond the normal aphid activity period and the Culicoides captured were identified to species level. From 11 May to 31 December 2006, the Gembloux trap caught 664 Culicoides specimens belonging to 19 species comprising known BTV-vectors. The second trap, at Libramont, was reactivated from 12 September to 13 October and caught 97 specimens belonging to nine species, all of which had been found at the Gembloux site. Among the 19 species identified, four were new to Belgian fauna: Culicoides achrayi, C. deltus, C. lupicaris and C. newsteadi. This paper examines the overall phenology and the physiological status of Culicoides in 2006 before and during the bluetongue epidemic. It discusses the potential of the Rothamsted suction trap to monitor Culicoides.     

Field observations during the bluetongue serotype 8 epidemic in 2006. I. Detection of first outbreaks and clinical signs in sheep and cattle in Belgium, France and the Netherlands

Starting August 2006, a major epidemic of bluetongue (BT) was identified in North-West Europe, affecting The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Luxemburg and the North of France. It was caused by BT virus serotype 8 (BTV-8), a serotype previously unknown to the European Union (EU). In this outbreak, the virus caused clinical disease in a few individual animals within cattle herds, whereas overt clinical disease was usually restricted to sheep. Investigations in Belgium suggested that the first clinical signs of BTV-8 appeared mid July 2006 in a cattle herd, while the first suspicion of a BT-outbreak in Belgium was reported on 17 August 2006. In the first 10 BTV-8 outbreaks in the Netherlands, the owners indicated that the first clinical signs started approximately 12-17 days before a suspicion was reported to the veterinary authorities via a veterinary practitioner. In BTV-8 affected sheep flocks, erosions of the oral mucosa, fever, salivation, facial and mandibular oedema, apathy and tiredness, mortality, oedema of the lips, lameness, and dysphagia were among the most frequent clinical signs recorded. The most prominent clinical signs in BTV-8 affected cattle herds were: crusts/lesions of the nasal mucosa, erosions of lips/crusts in or around the nostrils, erosions of the oral mucosa, salivation, fever, conjunctivitis, coronitis, muscle necrosis, and stiffness of the limbs. Crusts/lesions of nasal mucosa, conjunctivitis, hyperaemic/purple coloration and lesions of the teats, and redness/hypersensitivity of the skin were relatively more seen on outbreak farms with cattle compared to sheep. Mortality, oedema of the head and ears, coronitis, redness of the oral mucosa, erosions/ulceration of tongue mucosa, purple coloration of the tongue and tongue protrusion and dyspneu were relatively more seen on outbreak farms with sheep compared to cattle.     

Culicoides trapping with Rothamsted suction traps before and during the bluetongue epidemic of 2006 in Belgium

The collection of biting midges was taking place some months before the first bluetongue outbreak in Belgium in August 2006. The Walloon Agricultural Research Centre had been monitoring aphid populations at two sites annually in Belgium (Gembloux and Libramont), using two stationary ‘12-m’ Rothamsted suction traps. For the Gembloux trap, collections of insects captured daily from 11 May 2006 onwards were already available at the time of the outbreak. An examination of these samples revealed the presence of Culicoides, some species of which are considered as potential vectors of the bluetongue virus (BTV). The trapping was therefore extended beyond the normal aphid activity period and the Culicoides captured were identified to species level. From 11 May to 31 December 2006, the Gembloux trap caught 664 Culicoides specimens belonging to 19 species comprising known BTV-vectors. The second trap, at Libramont, was reactivated from 12 September to 13 October and caught 97 specimens belonging to nine species, all of which had been found at the Gembloux site. Among the 19 species identified, four were new to Belgian fauna: Culicoides achrayi, C. deltus, C. lupicaris and C. newsteadi. This paper examines the overall phenology and the physiological status of Culicoides in 2006 before and during the bluetongue epidemic. It discusses the potential of the Rothamsted suction trap to monitor Culicoides.     

Performance of clinical signs to detect bluetongue virus serotype 8 outbreaks in cattle and sheep during the 2006-epidemic in The Netherlands

The performance of clinical signs as a diagnostic test for the detection of BTV-8 outbreaks during the 2006-epidemic in The Netherlands was evaluated by constructing and analysing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The area under the ROC curve of the BT-associated clinical signs in cattle was 0.77. An optimal efficient test (maximising both sensitivity and specificity) in cattle herds combined a sensitivity (Se) of 67% with a specificity (Sp) of 72%, comprising the following clinical signs: ulcerations and/or erosions of oral mucosa or erosions of lips/crusts in or around nostrils or oedema of the nose or hyperaemic/purple coloration of tongue, tongue protrusion or coronitis or apathy/tiredness or muscle necrosis, stiffness of limbs or loathing or refusal to move, prostration or torticollis or anoestrus. The area under the ROC curve of the BT-associated clinical signs in sheep was 0.81. The optimal efficient test in sheep flocks combined a Se of 76% with a Sp of 72%, comprising the following clinical signs: ulcerations of oral mucosa or serous nasal discharge or erosions/ulceration of tongue mucosa or hypersensitivity of the skin or muscle necrosis, stiffness of limbs or coronitis or grinding of teeth or salivation or weakness/paresis.     

Molecular epidemiology of bluetongue virus serotype 1 isolated in 2006 from Algeria

This study reports on an outbreak of disease that occurred in central Algeria during July 2006. Sheep in the affected area presented clinical signs typical of bluetongue (BT) disease. A total of 5245 sheep in the affected region were considered to be susceptible, with 263 cases and thirty-six deaths. Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 1 was isolated and identified as the causative agent. Segments 2, 7 and 10 of this virus were sequenced and compared with other isolates from Morocco, Italy, Portugal and France showing that they all belong to a ‘western’ BTV group/topotype and collectively represent a western Mediterranean lineage of BTV-1.     

Economic evaluation of the surveillance and intervention programme for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Switzerland

Empirical analyses founded on sound economic principles are essential in advising policy makers on the efficiency of resource use for disease mitigation. Surveillance and intervention are resource-using activities directed at mitigation. Surveillance helps to offset negative disease effects by promoting successful intervention. Intervention is the process of implementing measures (e.g. vaccination or medication) to reduce or remove a hazard in a population. The scale and ratios in which the two are combined affect the efficiency of mitigation, its costs, benefits, and thus net effect on society's well-being. The Swiss national mitigation programme for bluetongue virus serotype 8 was used as case study to investigate the economic efficiency of mitigation. In 2008, Switzerland implemented a vaccination programme to avoid and reduce disease and infection in its ruminant population. To monitor the vaccination programme and the vector dynamics, a surveillance system consisting of serological and entomological surveillance was established. Retrospective analyses for the years 2008-2009 and prospective analyses for the years 2010-2012 were conducted to investigate if the mitigation programme was economically beneficial. In the retrospective analysis, the implemented programme (=comparative scenario) was compared to a hypothesised baseline scenario of voluntary vaccination and surveillance. In the prospective analysis, the comparative scenario assumed to continue was compared to two baseline scenarios: one of voluntary vaccination combined with surveillance and one of no vaccination combined with surveillance. For each scenario, monetary surveillance, intervention and disease costs were calculated. The comparison of baseline and comparative scenarios yielded estimates for the total benefit (=disease costs avoided), margin over intervention cost and the net value of the programme. For 2008-2009, in aggregate, the mean biannual total benefit was 17.46 m Swiss francs (CHF) (1CHF=0.66€ at the time of analysis) and the mean net benefit after subtraction of the intervention and surveillance cost was 3.95 m CHF. For the three years 2010-2012, overall net costs were estimated at 12.93 m and 8.11 m CHF, respectively, for comparison of the implemented mitigation programme with the two baseline scenarios. It was concluded that the surveillance and intervention programme implemented in 2008-2009 was economically beneficial, while its continuation in the same form in 2010-2012 would produce net costs. These costs were due to the mean intervention cost remaining constant at a level of approximately 11 m CHF per year while the mean total benefit would be gradually reduced in 2010-2012 due to the reduced occurrence of disease in a fully vaccinated population.     

Modelling local dispersal of bluetongue virus serotype 8 using random walk

The knowledge of the place where a disease is first introduced and from where it later spreads is a key element for the understanding of an epizootic. For a contagious disease, the main method is back tracing. For a vector-borne disease such as the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic that occurred in 2006 in North-Western Europe, the efficiency of tracing is limited because many infected animals are not showing clinical signs. In the present study, we propose to use a statistical approach, random walk, to model local spread in order to derive the Area of First Infection (AFI) and spread rate. Local spread is basically described by the random movements of infected insect vectors. Our model localised the AFI centre, origin of the infection, in the Netherlands, South of Maastricht. This location is consistent with the location of the farms where the disease was first notified in the three countries (Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany) and the farm where retrospectively the earliest clinical signs were found. The derived rate of spread of 10-15km/week is consistent with the rates observed in other Bluetongue epizootics. In another article Mintiens (2008), the AFI definition has then been used to investigate possible ways of introduction (upstream tracing) and to study the effect of animal movements from this area (downstream tracing).     

Experimental infection of South American camelids with bluetongue virus serotype 8

Bluetongue (BT) is an infectious, non-contagious disease of wild and domestic ruminants. It is caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Since 1998, BT has been emerging throughout Europe, threatening not only the na?ve ruminant population. Historically, South American camelids (SAC) were considered to be resistant to BT disease. However, recent fatalities related to BTV in captive SAC have raised questions about their role in BTV epidemiology. Data on the susceptibility of SAC to experimental infection with BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) were collected in an animal experiment. Three alpacas (Vicugna pacos) and three llamas (Lama glama) were experimentally infected with BTV-8. They displayed very mild clinical signs. Seroconversion was first measured 6-8 days after infection (dpi) by ELISA, and neutralising antibodies appeared 10-13 dpi. BTV-8 RNA levels in blood were very low, and quickly cleared after seroconversion. However, spleens collected post-mortem were still positive for BTV RNA, over 71 days after the last detection in blood samples. Virus isolation was only possible from blood samples of two alpacas by inoculation of highly sensitive interferon alpha/beta receptor-deficient (IFNAR(-/-)) mice. An in vitro experiment demonstrated that significantly lower amounts of BTV-8 adsorb to SAC blood cells than to bovine blood cells. Although this experiment showed that SAC are generally susceptible to a BTV-8 infection, it indicates that these species play a negligible role in BTV epidemiology.     

Vector monitoring at Belgian outbreak sites during the bluetongue epidemic of 2006

In response to the first bluetongue outbreak in Belgium a monitoring programme was started at the end of August 2006 to identify possible vectors transmitting the disease. Black light traps were deployed at 36 outbreak sites and captured 1959 Culicoides specimens belonging to 16 different species. Eighty four percent of the biting midges captured belonged to the C. obsoletus complex, among them C. obsoletus s.s., C. dewulfi and C. scoticus, three suspected bluetongue vectors. The Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre detected viral RNA in pools of individuals belonging to this complex. Culicoides pulicaris, a potential bluetongue vector in Italy, should yet not be excluded as a possible vector in Belgium as this species was frequently found around outbreak sites, notwithstanding this species is not easily captured with the trapping techniques used during this survey.     

Mortality attributable to bluetongue virus serotype 8 infection in Dutch dairy cows

In 2007, bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) re-emerged in the Netherlands and a large number of farmers notified morbidity and mortality associated with BTV-8 to the authorities. All dead cows in the Netherlands are registered in one of the three age classes: newborn calves <3 days, calves 3 days to 1 year, and cows >1 year. These registrations result in a complete data set of dead cattle per herd per day from 2003 until 2007. In this study, the mortality associated with BTV-8 for the Dutch dairy industry was estimated, based on this census data. Default, mortality associated with BTV-8 was estimated for the confirmed notification herds. Moreover, an additional analysis was performed to determine if mortality associated with BTV-8 infection occurred in non-notification herds located in BTV-8 infected compartments. A multivariable population-averaged model with a log link function was used for analyses. Separate analyses were conducted for the three different age groups. Confirmed notification herds had an increased cow mortality rate ratio (MRR) (1.4 (95% CI: 1.2-1.6)); calf MRR (1.3 (95% CI: 1.1-1.4)); and newborn calf MRR (1.2 (95% CI: 1.1-1.3)). Furthermore, in non-notification herds in BTV-8 infected compartments, mortality significantly increased 1.1 times (95% CI: 1.1-1.1) in cows, 1.2 times (95% CI: 1.2-1.2) in calves and 1.1 times (1.1-1.1) in newborn calves compared with BTV-8 non-infected months. Using objective census data over a 5-year period, the MRRs indicated increased mortality associated with BTV-8 infection not only in herds of which the farmer notified clinical signs but also in non-notification herds in infected compartments.     

Transplacental and oral transmission of wild-type bluetongue virus serotype 8 in cattle after experimental infection

Potential vertical transmission of wild-type bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in cattle was explored in this experiment. We demonstrated transplacental transmission of wild-type BTV-8 in one calf and oral infection with BTV-8 in another calf. Following the experimental BTV-8 infection of seven out of fifteen multi-parous cows eight months in gestation, each newborn calf was tested prior to colostrum intake for transplacental transmission of BTV by RRT-PCR. If transplacental transmission was not established the calves were fed colostrum from infected dams or colostrum from non-infected dams spiked with BTV-8 containing blood. One calf from an infected dam was born RRT-PCR positive and BTV-specific antibody (Abs) negative, BTV was isolated from its blood. It was born with clinical signs resembling bluetongue and lived for two days. Its post-mortem tissue suspensions were RRT-PCR positive. Of the seven calves fed colostrum from infected dams, none became infected. Of the six calves fed colostrum from non-infected dams spiked with infected blood, one calf became PCR-positive at day 8 post-partum (dpp), seroconverted 27 days later, and remained RRT-PCR and Abs positive for the duration of the experiment (i.e., 70 dpp). This work demonstrates that transplacental transmission in late gestation and oral infection of the neonate with wild-type BTV-8 is possible in cattle under experimental conditions.