基于目标约束视角的城市土地利用格局优化模拟研究——以呼和浩特市为例

为了在最大程度上解决城市土地资源配置与经济建设要求相匹配的问题，实现城市土地利用综合效益最大化目标，以呼和浩特市市区为例，结合2001—2016年研究区城市土地利用结构和布局变化特征，围绕经济-社会效益目标分别运用目标规划法和层次分析法对2030年用地需求方案进行模拟预测和择优，并通过CLUE-S模型对上述2种目标的优化方案进行空间模拟和最佳用地方案决策。结果表明：（1）2001—2016年研究区城市建设用地总面积增率达到94.104%，其中增幅较大的2类用地为交通运输用地和住宅用地。（2）与现状城市用地结构变化趋势不同，基于经济效益、社会效益目标的优化方案中，增幅最大的城市建设用地类分别为商服用地和工矿仓储用地，且2种方案的城市建设用地结构均衡度比2016年现状值分别高出0.259、0.462，各类城市建设用地的面积构成趋于动态平衡的态势。（3）2种不同效益目标优化方案的城市建设用地预测总面积有所不同，经济效益方案比社会效益方案高出30.828 km2。社会效益优化方案在城市用地结构及布局的动态平衡度上优于经济效益方案，设定其为最佳城市用地优化方案。     

基于P-S-R的重庆市黔江区城镇建设用地需求控制研究

近年来,农村人口向城镇大量流动加之城镇人口的自然增长,城镇人口对于城镇用地的需求十分强烈;另外,随着经济的发展,城镇固定资产投资逐年增加,致使城镇各业用地需求旺盛。因此城镇的扩张与人口向城镇的流动和政府对城镇的投资是密不可分的。本文试图通过引用系统工程理念中的压力-状态-响应（P-S-R）模型,分析导致城镇建设用地扩张的人口和固定资产投资的压力机制,并构建了测算建设用地需求模型。基于黔江区2004-2008年的数据,测得黔江区合理的城镇扩张规模,避免城镇粗放型的扩张。测得黔江区建设用地增量380.92 hm2。     

On Development of Small Towns and Estimate of Urban Land - use - A Case Study in Dazu County, Chongqing

The urbanization level and demand of urban land-use in future are forecast on the basis of natural condition, social and economic environment and the present condition of development in Dazu County. In the future, the supply-demand contradiction in urban land will be more intensive with acceleration of urbanization. Therefore, on one hand, urban land in major towns should be increased properly with centralization and land rearrangement of rural settlements;on the other hand, utilization ratio of land should be improved with enhancement of intensive use of urban land. In Dazu County, the demand of urban land should be satisfied primarily in towns with strong economy and urban land use should be increased properly in towns with general economic level but with potential economic development in the future. As for other towns, the urban land-use increase should be controlled.     

Study on the Construction of China's Unified Urban-rural Construction Land Market

State-owned urban construction land market in China has evolved and been improved gradually, but use system of rural collective construction land has lagged far behind, so the urban-rural construction land market in China has been split with a result that use effi ciency of land resources is poor and collective land property rights of peasants are damaged. On the basis of analyzing problems of the current construction land market and also the causes, modern land property theory and institutional change of neoinstitutional economics are applied to study dynamical mechanism and development path of the construction land market, to construct the unifi ed construction land market system of China, and to propose corresponding guarantee policies, so as to achieve the effective allocation of construction land and maximization of social welfare.     

基于“低碳”理念的城市土地利用系统健康评价研究

将城市土地碳排放和城市减排措施作为城市土地利用系统健康评价的重要指标,以PSR模型为框架,采用障碍度模型和变异系数法,对郑州市城市土地利用系统健康状况进行定量研究。研究结果显示:(1)2003—2012年郑州市的城市土地利用系统健康状况由不健康逐步过渡到临界状态,且响应系统障碍度不断下降,而压力系统障碍度则逐渐增加。(2)2003—2012年郑州市城市碳排放障碍度呈缓慢下降趋势,城市低碳措施的障碍度虽有波动但下降不明显。(3)单项因素障碍诊断方面,建设用地比重、社会固定资产投资增长率、城镇人口密度、城市碳汇面积增加量等因素随着时间的推移逐渐成为系统的主要障碍因素,而低碳指标始终是城市土地利用系统健康的主要障碍因素。可得出结论:为促进城市土地利用系统的健康发展,需要转变经济发展方式,促进城市土地的多样化利用,加强城市土地的市场化配置程度,增加城市环保投入,以低碳城市为目标,制定相应的减排政策。     

Is environmental regulation a blessing or a curse for China's urban land use efficiency? Evidence from a threshold effect model

Severe land shortage causes a higher demand for domestic and foreign land‐intensive products. As a result, resource utilization, and related environmental issues, will increase in urban areas. To this respect, the analysis of the impact of environmental regulation on urban land use efficiency helps to identify potential points for interventions designed to ensure sustainable land use. This study first introduces a theoretical framework to investigate the micro‐transmission mechanism of environmental regulation on urban land use efficiency. Our profit decision‐making model concludes that the impact of environmental regulation on urban land use efficiency is influenced by changes in the industrial structure. Empirically, our preliminary analysis suggests that in addition to population density, both formal and informal environmental regulation can promote urban land use efficiency, with a significant spatial heterogeneity across the sample regions. Further, this study shows a remarkable double‐threshold relationship between formal environmental regulation and urban land use efficiency in China. We clarify and confirm that environmental regulation promoted urban land use efficiency only when regulation intensity was higher than 0.8612. Environmental regulation increased urban land use efficiency in high‐level industrial rationalization areas, whereas it had the opposite effect in low‐level ones. Furthermore, there was a clear marginal diminishing effect of the impact of environmental regulation on urban land use efficiency when the optimization of the industrial structure was set as a threshold variable.     

Jobs,Houses, and Trees: Changing Regional Structure,Local Land‐Use Patterns,and Forest Cover in Southern Indiana

Land‐use and ‐cover change is a topic of increasing concern as interest in forest and agricultural land preservation grows. Urban and residential land use is quickly replacing extractive land use in southern Indiana. The interaction between land quality and urban growth pressures is also causing secondary forest growth and forest clearing to occur jointly in a complex spatial pattern. It is argued that similar processes fuel the abandonment of agricultural land leading to private forest regrowth, changes in topography and land quality, and declining real farm product prices. However, the impact of urban growth and development on forests depends more strongly on changes in both the residential housing and labor markets. Using location quotient analysis of aggregate employment patterns, and the relationship between regional labor market changes, the extent of private forest cover was examined from 1967 to 1998. Then an econometric model of land‐use shares in forty southern Indiana counties was developed based on the net benefits to agriculture, forestland, and urban uses. To test the need to control explicitly for changes in residential demand and regional economic structure, a series of nested models was estimated. Some evidence was found that changing agricultural profitability is leading to private forest regrowth. It was also uncovered that the ratio of urban to forest land uses is better explained by incorporating measures of residential land value and industrial concentration than simply considering population density alone.     

中国农村土地资产市场研究综述

农村土地资产市场受到很多学者的高度关注。综合运用文献资料法和对比分析法,梳理总结了相关研究关于中国农村土地资产市场的研究成果,分析了建立农村土地资产市场的必要性,梳理了存在的主要问题,探讨了建设农村土地资产市场的机制,并展望了研究重点和方向。研究结果表明：建设农村土地资产市场非常必要,它是完善社会主义市场体系、保障农民土地权益、统筹城乡发展的客观要求;建设农村土地资产市场面临一定困难,突出表现在土地制度供给不足、管理工作平台缺失、市场发展环境制约;发展农村土地资产市场要创新机制,建立农民土地资产权益保护机制、城乡土地资产市场统筹机制、农村土地资产配置市场机制。     

基于马尔柯夫模型的县域土地利用结构变化及趋势预测——以河北省辛集市为例

本研究以探索县域土地利用结构变化发展规律,探讨解决耕地保护和建设用地需求增长的矛盾为目的,以马尔柯夫转移矩阵为基础,对辛集市土地利用结构变化趋势进行预测。预测结果显示,在当前发展趋势下,辛集市耕地面积持续减少,建设用地总量将不断增加,耕地保护压力越来越大。建设用地蔓延过快,耕地占用速度增快将成为土地管理工作中亟待解决的问题。针对这种状况,必须采取相应措施,控制建设用地增长速度,提高建设用地集约利用水平,严格限制耕地占用,最终实现保护耕地的目的。     

长沙市土地利用生态风险及评价

摘要：城市生态环境问题已成为制约城市可持续发展的重要问题,土地利用变化是城市生态环境改变的重要因素。长沙市作为中部经济发达、人口众多的大城市,其工业化和城市化的发展速度很快。强烈的土地需求对土地利用的强度、方式、规模、布局等造成了深远的影响,同时也对城市生态环境造成强烈的冲击,生态安全受到严重威胁。本文引入城市土地利用生态风险评价的概念,分析长沙市土地利用现状,阐述城市土地利用生态风险产生的原因,识别与土地利用相关的生态环境问题,综合运用主成分分析,K均值聚类等方法,建立了土地利用生态风险评价模型,分析和评价长沙市土地利用生态风险。结果发现该区所研究时段土地利用生态风险总体上变大,土地利用生态风险值从1996年的-0.85286（Ⅴ）,变为2006年的1.321039（Ⅰ）,期间变化波动明显,风险值在1996-1999年和2003-2006年趋于上升,2000-2002年趋于下降。根据此评价结论提出一系列规避和应对生态风险,协调城市土地利用与生态环境的对策。     

四川省城市土地利用效率与经济耦合协调度研究

解决城市用地供需矛盾的关键是提高土地利用效率。为了测度城市经济与土地利用效率之间的协调程度,通过建立综合评价指标体系,利用因子分析法,对城市经济与土地利用效率进行综合评价,然后借鉴物理学中的耦合度函数,测算地级城市经济与城市土地利用效率之间的耦合协调程度。分别得到四川省18个城市1998至2008年的协调度,同时对不同地级城市、不同年份的计算结果作横向和纵向的比较,动态地分析与考察,结果表明四川省地级城市经济与城市土地利用效率的协调程度虽然逐步提高,但是总体上水平不高,只有发展经济与提高土地利用效率并举,才能改进协调度,从而为政府实施城市经济发展的可持续土地利用战略提供决策依据。     

中国农村集体土地产权制度研究综述

土地制度是农村的基本制度,中国农村集体土地产权制度建设受到学术界高度关注。围绕农村集体土地所有权主体建设,农村集体土地用益物权保护、农村集体土地产权资产化3个关键问题,综合运用文献检索法和对比分析法,梳理和总结了学术界对中国农村集体土地产权制度的研究成果,探讨了中国农村集体土地产权制度研究的需求和走向。研究结果表明：农村集体土地所有权主体建设是农村集体土地产权制度研究的基本问题;农村集体土地用益物权保护研究的价值取向是强化农民的土地用益物权;推进农村集体土地产权资产化是坚持社会主义市场经济的改革方向。     

山地城市土地利用绩效评价研究

为科学的考量土地资源配置情况,对土地利用产生的影响进行综合评价,从土地自然属性、土地利用结构、土地利用效益3个方面构建了山地城市土地利用绩效评价指标体系,利用模糊综合评价方法构建土地利用绩效评价模型,以重庆市南川区为例进行实证研究,并针对评价结果进行障碍度分析,指出南川区城市土地利用中存在的问题,为其科学用地提出建议。研究结果表明：（1）2009—2013年间南川区土地利用绩效水平整体呈上升趋势,土地集约利用和土地利用效益起到主要作用,自然条件对土地利用绩效的提升的约束作用有增大的趋势;南川城市土地利用中应注重提升土地利用效率和效益,以实现与自然环境协调发展;（2）山地城市土地利用绩效评价既要考虑城市土地利用的一般特征,又要注意到山地城市土地利用的特殊性,尤其土地的自然条件等。     

开封市土地储备潜力规模研究

合理的土地储备规模不仅能保障社会经济的发展,还能避免土地的闲置与浪费,因此研究土地储备规模具有重要意义。笔者通过运用GM（1,1）模型预测出,到2020年开封市新增城镇建设用地的需求规模及农业人口数量,结合开封市2006-2020年土地利用总体规划预测出目标年城镇建设用地的总供给规模,再基于集约节约利用方式,预测出未来可节约城镇建设用地的潜力,从而得出开封市在目标年的土地储备规模。根据本研究思路测算出,开封市2020年土地储备规模为26036.22 hm2（含土地储备增量规模9990.35 hm2和存量规模16045.87 hm2）,这对于开封市优先盘活存量土地,有效控制建设用地占用农用地具有重要的现实意义。     

兰州市城市化与土地集约利用耦合协调性及关联分析

为了深入探究城市化与土地集约利用的动态关系和互馈机制，促进城市可持续发展。本研究运用耦合协调度模型和灰色关联模型对2006—2015年兰州市城市化与土地集约利用的耦合协调以及关联性进行了分析。结果表明，兰州市城市化和土地集约利用综合指数均呈上升趋势，且总体上土地集约利用水平超前于城市化水平；耦合协调状态由中度失调逐渐转为优质协调，逐步趋于协调发展；城市化与土地集约利用2个系统之间互相关联，土地集约利用中的产出效益对城市化的影响最为明显，而社会城市化和生态城市化是影响土地集约利用的主要因素。在未来发展中，应发挥土地集约利用对城市化的反推作用，促进城市化进程，进一步提高协调性，从而推动城市可持续发展。     

阜康市城市土地供给侧政策绩效综合评价

旨在剖析阜康市城市土地供给侧结构方面存在的难题,从城市土地供给侧政策的结构效益、经济效益和公平效益三视角,运用主成分分析模型构建阜康市城市土地供给侧政策综合绩效评价体系。结果表明2009—2013 年阜康市城市土地供给侧政策绩效虽呈波动状态,但评分总体较好,土地供给侧政策实施效果整体良好。在供给结构调整方面,阜康市城市土地供给结构还需进一步调整,工矿仓储用地占用比重较大,商服和住宅用地比重较小;在经济效益方面,保持着较高的土地供给率和土地市场公开出让率,但土地投资强度较低;在公平效益方面,城市人均道路面积、人均公共管理与公共服务用地面积、经适房比重得到一定程度的扩大,但总体仍处于较低水平。最后,为阜康市土地供给侧结构调整优化提出优化供地结构、注重存量土地内部挖潜、转变低效供地利用、以“三规合一”为导向等建议,以实现未来城市土地供给的可持续发展。     

Twenty‐first century nomadic city: Ger districts and barriers to the implementation of the Ulaanbaatar City Master Plan

Since the early 1990s, Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, has experienced rapid rural to urban migration and population growth resulting in the growth in informal settlements across the city. The informal settlements are known as ‘ger’ districts. In response to these pressures, since the 1990s, the central government has adopted a programme of land reform and metropolitan planning. These new reforms take place in the context of a unique, post‐socialist political, economic and institutional context. The land reform process has attempted to privatise land ownership, which has traditionally resided with the state. The privatisation process was initiated under the new Constitution of Mongolia, which initiated reforms in all sectors of social and economic development, and since 2003, targeted land reform in ger districts. Running parallel, a series of urban land‐use planning schemes have been introduced to frame the development of Ulaanbaatar in the context of an emerging market economy. Although master plans for urban development have been established since the 1950s, urban land‐use planning is a new concept in this emerging market economy. The aim of this paper is to trace the rationales and challenges of implementing master plans and land privatisation processes in Ulaanbaatar. Drawing on interviews with city, national and local government officials conducted in 2009, the paper focuses on the implications of these reforms for both the government and the residents of ger districts.     

Can the Land Use Master Plan Control Urban Expansion and Protect Farmland in China? A Case Study of Nanjing

Urbanization represents a challenge for plans aimed at controlling urban expansion and protecting farmland, such as the land use master plan (LUMP) instituted by the Chinese national government. This paper studies the effectiveness of such top–down plans under the authoritarian regime through the case study of Nanjing. In contrast to previous studies that compare actual and planned land‐use maps, we compare actual and planned land‐use patterns. We use land‐use change data to examine spatio‐temporal land‐use change between the years 1997 and 2014. The results indicate that the actual amount of urban‐rural built‐up land exceeded planned regulatory amount by 50,185 ha and the total farmland was 70,541 ha less than the target outlined in the LUMP (1997–2010). Based on these results, and the fact that the allowed total urban‐rural built‐up land had already been surpassed in 2014, it is to be expected that the target of farmland protection outlined in the LUMP (2006–2020) will be broken, signaling the ineffectiveness of the plan to control urban expansion and protect farmland. Plan‐led developments (e.g., new towns, development zones) and market forces (e.g., housing market, foreign direct investment) explain these developments. This study indicates that when cities embrace “growth‐led” development and entrepreneurial governance, the ability of plans to control urban expansion and protect farmland is severely limited.     

Exploring Harmonious Protection of Land Resources in City Construction

Urbanization in China is at an essential point in its transformation from the initial stage to accelerating stage. With quick expansion of city scale and large occupation of land for urban construction, the contradiction between land resource shortage and people's living needs becomes more and more prominent. It has great affection on the grand plan of China's sustainable development of economy and society. How to adjust the relations between the development of urban construction and protect the land resource, promote the rational use of urban land, perfect and complete the protection system of land resource for improving the efficiency of urban land use. In order to conserve land resource and find a sustainable way for development of people's living and environment construction, the above mentioned problems are the most important issue for urban construction and important subject of this paper.     

Total factor productivity of urban land use in China

Previous studies pay little attention to the role of technological progress in measuring urban land use efficiency, and ignore the interactions among total factor productivity, technological progress, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency in the process of urban land use. To narrow the gaps, this research uses the Malmquist index approach to measure and decompose urban land use total factor productivity and a panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) to investigate the interactions among urban land use total factor productivity, technological progress, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency in China from 2003 to 2016. This study shows that the overall urban land use efficiency increased at an annual growth rate of 0.7% in China from 2003 to 2016 while the growth rate of urban land use efficiency has generally decreased, which is reflected by the total factor productivity of urban land use. The total factor productivity fluctuates between 0.952 and 1.083 with a downward trend in 2003–2016. Technological progress, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency all have positive effects on the improvement of urban land use efficiency, and there are differences in the order and degree of promotion. The improvement of scale efficiency is the most important measure to ensure the efficient use of urban land resources in the future.