Impacts and adaptation of the cropping systems to climate change in the Northeast Farming Region of China

The Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) is a very important crop growing area, comprising seven sub-regions: Xing’anling (XA), Sanjiang (SJ), Northwest Songliao (NSL), Central Songliao (CSL), Southwest Songliao (SSL), Changbaishan (CB) and Liaodong (LD), which has been severely affected by extreme climate events and climatic change. Therefore, a set of expert survey has been done to identify current and project future climate limitations to crop production and explore appropriate adaptation measures in NFR. Droughts have been the largest limitation for maize (Zea mays L.) in NSL and SSL, and for soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) in SSL. Chilling damage has been the largest limitation for rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in XA, SJ and CB. Projected climate change is expected to be beneficial for expanding the crop growing season, and to provide more suitable conditions for sowing and harvest. Autumn frost will occur later in most parts of NFR, and chilling damage will also decrease, particularly for rice production in XA and SJ. Drought and heat stress are expected to become more severe for maize and soybean production in most parts of NFR. Also, plant diseases, pests and weeds are considered to become more severe for crop production under climate change. Adaptation measures that have already been implemented in recent decades to cope with current climatic limitations include changes in timing of cultivation, variety choice, soil tillage practices, crop protection, irrigation and use of plastic film for soil cover. With the projected climate change and increasing risk of climatic extremes, additional adaptation measures will become relevant for sustaining and improving productivity of crops in NFR to ensure food security in China.     

Low yield gap of winter wheat in the North China Plain

The yield gap (YG) between the potential yields (Yp) and the average on-farm yields (Ya) is an indicator of the potential improvement for crop production. Understanding how large the current gap is and how this gap has changed over the past few decades is essential for increasing wheat production to meet increased food demand in China. This paper describes a study conducted using an APSIM-Wheat model and farm-level crop yield to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of the yield gap of winter wheat from 1981 to 2010 in the North China Plain. Nine varieties were calibrated and evaluated based on the data from 16 agro-meteorological experimental sites and then potential yields were estimated considering cultivar replacement. In addition, a trend pattern analysis of on-farm yields for the period 1981–2010 was conducted. Results revealed an estimated yield gap across the entire North China Plain region of 1140–6810 kg ha⁻¹, with a weight average of 3630 kg ha⁻¹ in 1981–2010. Expressed as a relative yield (yield gap % of potential yields), the range was 15–80%, and the weight average was 45%. Despite the negative effects of increasing temperature and decreasing radiation, the potential yields significantly increased by 45 kg ha⁻¹ per year due to cultivar improvement. On-farm yields increased even more notably because of new cultivar selection, increased fertilizer application and other management improvements, but were stagnating in 32.3% of wheat areas, located mainly in Hebei province, Shandong province, Beijing and Tianjin. The improvement of on-farm yields have substantially contributed to yield gap spatio-temporal variation. As a result, the yield gap decreased from 4200 kg ha⁻¹ (56%) in 1981–1990 to 3000 kg ha⁻¹ (35%) in 2001–2010 at a rate of −69 kg ha⁻¹ per year. However, yields stagnation will expand to the northern Henan province without cultivar potential productivity improving, where yield gap was close to or less than 20% of the potential yields and proved difficult to reduce. To further improve the total production of winter wheat in the coming decades, efforts should be paid to break the potential ceiling and reduce the yield gap by breeding higher yield variety and introduction of new agricultural technology.     

气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响

本研究采用英国Hadley中心的区域气候情景PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Study),结合校正的CERES-Wheat 模型,对21世纪70年代（2070s）气候变化情景下我国小麦的产量变化进行了研究。结果表明,在PRECIS预测的2070s气候变化条件下,我国雨养小麦和灌溉小麦的平均单产较基准年（1961－1990平均值）约减少20%,其中雨养小麦的减产幅度略高于灌溉小麦,春小麦或春性较强的冬小麦减产明显,减产的区域主要集中在东北春麦区和西南冬麦区。     

Yield,growth and grain nitrogen response to elevated CO2 in six lentil (Lens culinaris) cultivars grown under Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) in a semi-arid environment

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]) are predicted to increase from current levels of about 400 ppm to reach 550 ppm by 2050. The direct benefits of elevated [CO₂] (e[CO₂]) to plant growth appear to be greater under low rainfall conditions, but there are few field (Free Air CO₂ Enrichment or FACE) experimental set-ups that directly address semi-arid conditions. The objectives of this study were to investigate the following research questions: 1) What are the effects of e[CO₂] on the growth and grain yield of lentil (Lens culinaris) grown under semi-arid conditions under FACE? 2) Does e[CO₂] decrease grain nitrogen in lentil? and 3) Is there genotypic variability in the response to e[CO₂] in lentil cultivars? Elevated [CO₂] increased yields by approximately 0.5 t ha⁻¹ (relative increase ranging from 18 to 138%) by increasing both biomass accumulation (by 32%) and the harvest index (by up to 60%). However, the relative response of grain yield to e[CO₂] was not consistently greater under dry conditions and might depend on water availability post-flowering. Grain nitrogen concentration was significantly reduced by e[CO₂] under the conditions of this experiment. No differences were found between the cultivars selected in the response to elevated [CO₂] for grain yield or any other parameters observed despite well expressed genotypic variability in many traits of interest. Biomass accumulation from flowering to maturity was considerably increased by elevated [CO₂] (a 50% increase) which suggests that the indeterminate growth habit of lentils provides vegetative sinks in addition to reproductive sinks during the grain-filling period.     

长期施肥条件下我国南方双季稻产量的变化趋势

系统分析我国南方双季典型稻区福建省白沙、江西省进贤、江西省南昌及湖南省望城4个水稻长期施肥试验资料,研究化肥N、P、K (氮、磷、钾)的不同组合(NP, NK, NPK)、化肥配施有机肥(NPKM)及不施肥(CK)各处理水稻的产量差异、变化趋势。结果显示,不同施肥条件下各试验点上水稻产量差异大,试验期内各施肥处理较CK的总增产率分别为NPKM 84.3%、NPK 68.1%、NP 42.9%和NK 39.9%,其中NPKM总体上显著高于NPK。长期配施NPK或NPKM肥产量较稳定或呈上升趋势,尤其是晚稻,而仅施NK均呈下降或极显著下降趋势(周年变化幅度为-103~ -201 kg hm^-2 yr^-1),其他施肥处理晚稻产量相对稳定。不同试验点间施磷量较高(52 kg hm^-2 yr^-1)的南昌点产量相对稳定,而施磷量较低(24 kg hm^-2 yr^-1)的白沙点各处理均呈显著下降趋势。本试验条件下,施肥投入不足又特别是施磷肥量低或不施磷为早稻产量下降的主要驱动因素。合理施用NPK肥,配合有机肥,为推荐的施肥模式,为了使试验点双季稻产量稳定且不呈下降趋势,需年施纯磷50.0~63.9 kg hm^-2, 且适当偏重于早稻季。     

Taking a climate chance: a procedural critique of Vietnam's climate change strategy

This article asks through what processes and for which interests the emerging Vietnamese climate change strategy is being designed, and if, ultimately, it is likely or not to be effective in the face of the looming threat. Through a review of an emerging body of literature and field observations, the paper finds the strategy partial and problematic in several ways. Its technocratic process prevents a pluralist representation of interests, obfuscating and perpetuating sectorial ones, at the expense of a more transparent and democratic resource allocation. The strategy therefore reflects and reinforces existing power relations in both politics and production. It feeds into a business-as-usual complacency, protecting national and international interests vested in unchallenged continuity, even when considering post-carbon technological fixes, which largely serve to expand capital accumulation opportunities. The article concludes that the national climate change strategy provides an illusion of intervention and security, but largely fails to identify and mitigate the underlying causes of climate change, or to lay the ground for a robust mid- and long-term adaptation strategy that can cope with yet unknown levels of climatic and other structural changes.     

气候变化导致的冬小麦产量波动及应对措施模拟

气候变化导致中国气候资源发生变化,从而影响中国未来的农业生产。利用区域气候模式模拟的未来两种温室气体排放方案A2和B2下的气候变化情景分别与CERES-小麦模式相连接,研究了气候变化下中国北方地区冬小麦长时间序列的产量波动及产量变率的可能变化,及采取两种适应措施后,产量波动及变率的相应变化。结果表明,A2和B2两种气候变化情景下,未来3个时段冬小麦平均产量和最高产量会有所增高,但产量的年际波动和变率也将明显加大,产量的年际变幅也会显著增加。采取适应措施后,调整播期和改变品种会减少产量的波动和变率,该地区播期适当提前,选用中熟品种是未来气候变化下的较好适应组合。     

Resettlement and the environment in Vietnam: Implications for climate change adaptation planning

Increasingly the environment, and climate risks in particular, are influencing migration and planned resettlement in Vietnam, raising the spectre of increased displacement in a country already confronting serious challenges around sustainable land and water use as well as urbanisation. Planned resettlement has emerged as part of a suite of measures being pursued as part of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies. This paper provides an historical, political, legal and environmental overview of resettlement in Vietnam identifying key challenges for framing resettlement as climate change adaptation. The paper outlines the scale of past resettlement in Vietnam, identifying the drivers and implications for vulnerability. Detailed case studies of resettlement are reviewed. Through this review, the paper reflects on the growing threat of climate change and the likelihood of increased displacement associated with worsening climate risks to identify some critical considerations for planned resettlement in climate change adaptation planning.     

南方稻区水稻产量差的变化及其气候影响因素

为了研究南方稻作区水稻理论生产潜力、单产的提升空间以及气候变化因素对水稻生产潜力的影响,探索区域水稻生产的限制因素和提高水稻产量的技术途径,本研究利用AZE (农业生态区域法)模型对南方稻区1980—2010水稻光温生产潜力进行测算,结合水稻大田平均产量,对该区域水稻光温生产潜力和大田平均单产之间的产量差及其时空变化特点进行研究,并分析了产量差变化的气候影响因素。分析表明,30年来该区域早稻光温生产潜力呈上升趋势,且增幅大于实际产量增加的幅度,二者之间的产量差不断扩大;一季中稻光温生产潜力呈下降趋势,产量差逐步缩小;晚稻光温生产潜力亦呈不断下降的趋势,产量差不断缩小。对区域气候变化分析表明,水稻生育期内辐射总量及温度变化是影响光温生产潜力的关键因子,早稻生育期内温度升高对水稻产量的正效应超过辐射下降的负效应,光温生产潜力不断增加,而一季中稻及晚稻生育期内辐射下降对产量的影响更大,水稻生产潜力呈下降趋势。不同省份间,水稻生育期内辐射及温度变化不同,光温生产潜力及产量差变化趋势空间差异明显。     

Assessment of soybean yield with altered water-related genetic improvement traits under climate change in Southern Brazil

Water deficit is a major factor responsible for soybean yield gap in Southern Brazil and tends to increase under climate change. An alternative to reduce such gap is to identify soybean cultivars with traits associated to drought tolerance. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess soybean adaptive traits to water deficit that can improve yield under current and future climates, providing guidelines for soybean cultivar breeding in Southern Brazil. The following soybean traits were manipulated in the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean crop model: deeper root depth in the soil profile; maximum fraction of shoot dry matter diverted to root growth under water stress; early reduction of transpiration under mild stress; transpiration limited as a function of vapor pressure deficit; N₂ fixation drought tolerance; and sensitivity of grain filling period to water deficit. The yields were predicted for standard and altered traits using climate data for the current (1961–2014) and future (middle-century) scenarios. The traits with greater improvement in soybean yield were deeper rooting profile, with yield gains of ≈300 kg ha⁻¹, followed by transpiration limited as a function of vapor pressure deficit and less drought-induced shortening of the grain filling period. The maximum fraction of shoot dry matter diverted to root and N₂ fixation drought tolerance increased yield by less than 75 kg ha⁻¹, while early reduction of transpiration resulted in a small area of country showing gains. When these traits were combined, the simulations resulted in higher yield gains than using any single trait. These results show that traits associated with deeper and greater root profile in the soil, reducing transpiration under water deficit more than photosynthesis, creating tolerance of nitrogen fixation to drought, and reducing sensitivity of grain filling period to water deficit should be included in new soybean cultivars to improve soybean drought tolerance in Southern Brazil.     

氮肥运筹对湘南双季杂交稻生长发育与稻米品质的影响

为明确湘南双季杂交稻适宜的氮肥运筹方式,以早稻品种陆两优996和株两优819、晚稻品种H优518和盛泰优018为材料,比较研究3种分蘖肥、穗肥、粒肥比例（7:2:1,N1;6:3:1,N2;5:4:1,N3）对双季杂交稻产量形成与稻米品质的影响。结果表明,氮肥运筹对双季稻产量及其构成因素有显著影响,早、晚稻实际产量均以N2处理最高,且显著高于N1处理,其增产的原因主要是有效穗数与穗粒数较高。与N1和N3处理相比,N2处理茎蘖数居中,但成穗率最高,且孕穗之后的叶面积指数、叶片叶绿素含量与干物质积累量最高。各品种糙米率、精米率和整精米率均以N2处理最高;N3处理直链淀粉含量显著低于N1处理,但与N2处理无显著差异;胶稠度随穗肥比例增加呈下降趋势;各品种垩白粒率和垩白度均以N2处理最低,处理间粒长、粒宽和长宽比均无显著差异。从稻米RVA谱特征参数来看,N1处理稻米食味品质最好,略优于N2处理,N3处理米质最差。综合考虑产量与稻米品质,N2处理（分蘖肥:穗肥:粒肥=6:3:1）是湘南双季杂交稻较理想的氮肥运筹方式。     

氮、磷、钾肥对南方双季稻区水稻产量及产量构成因子的影响

为明确氮、磷、钾肥对南方双季稻区水稻产量及产量构成因子的影响,于2019年在广西象州县、岑溪市、龙州县（早季）及港北区、福绵区（晚季）进行田间试验。设置对照（不施肥）、全肥（180kg N+45kg P₂O₅+135kg K₂O/hm²）、缺氮（45kg P₂O₅+135kg K₂O/hm²）、缺磷（180kg N+135kg K₂O/hm²）和缺钾（180kg N+45kg P₂O₅/hm²）5个处理,于成熟期测定产量和产量构成因子。结果表明,氮、磷、钾肥对水稻产量及其构成因子均有显著影响。与全肥处理比较,缺氮、缺磷、缺钾和对照处理分别减产17.43%、6.64%、4.83%和25.58%。氮肥主要影响有效穗数和结实率,磷肥主要影响穗粒数,钾肥主要影响千粒重。水稻产量与有效穗数（r=0.544）和穗粒数（r=0.852）呈极显著正相关,与结实率的相关性不显著。     

Yield variation of spring cereals in relation to selected soil physical properties on three clay soil fields

The crop growth is highly dependent on growth conditions which vary from year to year making precision farming challenging. In the present paper was first investigated whether varying soil physical properties reflect the within-field yield variation of small grain cereals and how do the variations in weather conditions between growing seasons affect the within-field yield variation. Secondly, the potential biomass accumulation of the crop in existing soil and weather conditions was simulated. The simulated and experimentally based site-specific total biomasses were compared in order to find out whether the soil data explains the observed variations in yield.Three experimental fields size of 3–4 ha were established to examine the spatio-temporal yield variation during three years. The clay content of soils was high (> 46%) and soils were classified as Stagni-Vertic Cambisols. Correlations between soil water retention properties and crop yield were studied. Top and subsoil saturated (SWC), field capacity (FC) and permanent wilting point (PWP) water content, and saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil (K_sat), were determined from 19 to 24 places on each field once during the three years experimental period. During growing seasons, soil moisture content and leaf area index (LAI) were determined at same places biweekly, and yield was harvested. Spring barley (Hordeum vulgare) was grown on two fields, and spring wheat (Triticum aestivum, 2 years) and spring oilseed rape (Brassica napus L., one year) were grown on the third field.The measured grain yields correlated with selected soil physical properties only in few cases. The observed spatial variation in the biomass was in most cases found to be higher than the simulated. Therefore, the above mentioned parameters were not enough to predict the yield correctly in case of high variations. There were other factors decreasing the observed yield e.g. lodging, cold summer, extremely high precipitation and slopes in field. According to our results it is evident that it is very difficult to predict site-specific biomass accumulation solely by soil properties in order, for instance, to fertilize in a site-specific manner. Therefore one needs to measure the crop during the growing season in order to simulate the biomass accumulation for precision farming purposes.     

长期和短期减施磷肥对华南双季稻产量与磷肥利用的影响

通过短期和长期试验相结合,研究减施磷肥对水稻产量和磷肥利用的影响。短期试验设置常规基施磷肥（P1）、磷肥减半基施（P2）和磷肥减半且基肥和穗肥各50%施用（P3）3个处理,以常规稻粤晶丝苗2号和杂交稻晶两优华占为供试材料,进行早晚两季试验;长期定位试验包含不施磷（M0）和常规施磷（M1）2个处理,采用9年18季试验数据。短期试验结果表明,磷肥减施对水稻产量、干物质积累量与转运、磷素积累量与利用等性状指标均无显著影响。P1、P2和P3处理间土壤总磷和可溶性磷含量均无显著差异,并且田面水总磷和可溶性磷含量在全生育期内无显著差异。P1、P2和P3处理的磷素盈亏率分别为8.7%、-35.3%和-31.8%,P1处理可达到土壤磷素表观平衡。长期定位试验结果表明,M0处理的产量随种植季节数增加而下降,3年6季内M0与M1处理产量相当。根据目前稻田土壤磷含量情况,在生产上3年内磷肥减半施用,既不影响水稻产量,又可降低稻田磷素损失风险,是兼顾产量和环保的技术方案。     

Farmers' perceptions of and responses to environmental change in southwest coastal Bangladesh

Coastal Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change and salinisation; hence, farm‐level adaptation is critically important. Farmers' perceptions of and responses to environmental change were investigated in two villages in Khulna District. Perceived environmental trends included increases in temperature, extreme weather events, soil toxicity, erratic rainfall and scarcity of water for irrigation. Perceptions of climate trends were consistent with measured trends in Khulna. On‐farm adaptation strategies included adjusting planting dates, excavating trenches in rice‐fields, adopting new crops, salinity‐reducing technologies, livestock‐rearing and home‐yard cropping. Non‐farm adaptation strategies included wage employment, short‐term migration and self‐employment. Adaptation was facilitated by income‐earning opportunities, training, and credit, and impeded by lack of access to water, markets, capital, and extension services. Farmers suggested policy support for dissemination of stress‐tolerant cultivars, access to irrigation, and price stabilisation or crop insurance to assist adaptation. While the study shows an impressive degree of awareness and adaptation, external support is needed to increase adaptive capacity.     

种植模式对南方作物产量及资源利用效率的影响

种植模式优化是挖掘农田高产潜力和提高资源利用效率的重要途径之一。于2017-2018 年在湖北省江陵县三湖农场开展了田间试验,采用随机区组设计,设置了早稻–晚稻（DR,对照）、春玉米–晚稻（MR）和再生稻（Rr）3种种植模式。结果表明,与早稻–晚稻种植模式相比,春玉米–晚稻种植模式积温生产效率、水分利用率、经济效益和周年产量分别提高了8.66%、35.19%、33.71%和34.60%;再生稻分别提高了6.77%、11.16%、68.12%和31.20%。从整个周年来看,春玉米–晚稻和再生稻模式的积温生产效率较高,春玉米–晚稻模式的水分利用率最高,春玉米–晚稻和再生稻处理的周年产量显著高于早稻–晚稻种植模式,再生稻模式周年经济效益最高,其次是春玉米–晚稻种植模式。因此,春玉米–晚稻和再生稻是该区域稻田两熟制适宜的种植模式。     

华北地区冬小麦产量潜力分布特征及其影响因素

利用华北地区农业气象观测站作物资料,验证APSIM-Wheat作物模拟模型区域尺度有效性,结合1961-2007年47年逐日气候资料,分析冬小麦潜在产量、水分限制产量和水氮限制产量时空分布特征,明确了气候因素对冬小麦不同等级产量潜力分布特征的影响程度。对APSIM-Wheat模型在华北地区区域尺度上进行验证,结果显示区域化模型在华北地区有较好的适用性。华北地区冬小麦各层次产量在时间上总体呈下降趋势,空间上呈带状分布,不同层次产量空间分布特征有所差别：冬小麦潜在产量从东北向西南减少,水分限制产量从东南向西北递减,水氮限制产量从东向西先增加后降低在山东济宁地区达到最大;河北省为冬小麦潜在产量和水氮限制产量的高值区,同时为水分限制产量的低值区,增加灌溉是提高其产量的主要途径;山东省为冬小麦潜在产量和水分限制产量的高值区,水氮限制产量的低值区,增施氮肥是提高其产量的主要途径;河南省为冬小麦潜在产量的低值区,辐射是其主要限制因素。决定冬小麦潜在产量时空分布特征的最主要气候要素为生长季内总辐射,总辐射与潜在产量呈极显著正相关关系;决定冬小麦水分限制产量分布特征的最主要气候要素为冬小麦生长季内降水量,呈极显著正相关关系;气候要素对于冬小麦水氮限制产量空间分布特征的解释方差较小,仅为0.48,故土壤等其他因素对其空间分布影响较大。气候变化背景下,如不改变作物品种,冬小麦各级产量潜力呈下降趋势,造成其下降的主要原因为总辐射下降以及随积温增加冬小麦生长季缩短,决定冬小麦产量潜力空间分布的主要因素为总辐射和降水量。     

全球气候变化影响我国冬小麦生产之前瞻

将作物模型与大气环流模型（GCM）耦合，评价未来气候变化对我国冬小麦生育期、产量和灌溉需要量的影响，并采用一种农业经济模型，就研究区域未来冬小麦总产的变化进行估计；还根据若干农业所气候指标，分析当CO2倍增时研究区域冬小麦生长期干湿状况的改变，种植界线可能发生的地理位移，以及品种布局和种植制度的演进趋势等     

Short-term water management at early filling stage improves early-season rice performance under high temperature stress in South China

Asymmetric warming and frequent temperature extremes are the consequences of climate change that are affecting crop growth and productivity over the globe while heat stress at early filling stage is of serious concern for the early-season rice in double cropping rice system of South China. In present study we assessed different short-term water management strategies to cope with the high temperature at early filling stage in rice. Water was applied as flood irrigation at two various depths i.e., 4–5 cm (I1) and 5–10 cm (I2) during 9:00–18:00 and then drained off at 18:00 as well as applied over-head during different time spans i.e., over-head sprinkle irrigation during 11:00–12:00, 13:00–14:00 and 14:00–15:00 at 60–80% relative humidity (RH) at early filling stage and regarded as S1, S2 and S3, respectively. A control was maintained with the maintenance of 1 cm water layer as normal farmer practice of this region. A fragrant rice cultivar, ‘Yuxiangyouzhan’ in early March (regarded as early season rice) in both 2014–15 and the effectiveness of different water management strategies were measured by estimating physio-biochemical responses, photosynthesis, yield and quality of rice exposed to high temperature stress at early filling stage. Our results showed that water treatments lowered lipid peroxidation (in terms of reduced malondialdehyde (MDA) contents) whilst proline and protein contents were affected differently. The water treatments also regulated the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD), catalase (CAT), nevertheless, improved plant photosynthesis and gas exchange, rice yield and quality attributes considerably by lowering severity of canopy temperatures than control (CK). On average, both flood and sprinkler water application were proved effective against high temperature stress, nonetheless, flood irrigated treatments were remained more effective than sprinkler which provided 26.58 and 43.63% higher grain yields in 2014–15, respectively than CK. On average, 5.58 and 11.92% higher grain yields were recorded in flood irrigation than sprinkler irrigation whereas among individual water application treatments, I1 was noted as the most effective regarding grain yield of rice (26.76 and 49.35% higher yield than CK) in both years which suggests that maintenance of 4–5 cm water layer might be helpful for the rice to withstand against high temperature stress at post heading and/or early filling stage in early-season rice production in South China.     

河南省沿黄稻茬小麦高产潜力探讨 Ⅰ不同耕播方式稻茬小麦的生态环境及生育生理特性

１９９３～１９９６年,对河南省黄河沿岸稻茬小麦生产上现有的稻田撒播、免耕犁耧播、旋耕条播和翻耕条播４种耕播方式小麦的生态环境、生育生理特性和生长发育规律进行了系统研究,分析了各耕播方式小麦高产的限制因素及高产潜力。