The impact of pelagic longline fishing on the flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes in Eastern Australia

The flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) is a medium-sized seabird (ca. 700 g) that is incidentally killed during longline fishing operations. We examined the levels of bycatch in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and developed a model to examine the impact of this fishery on the eastern Australian population of flesh-footed shearwaters, which breeds at only one site, Lord Howe Island. Observed bycatch rates for flesh-footed shearwaters were 0.378 birds/1000 hooks for night sets, and 0.945 birds/1000 hooks for day sets. The mean number of birds killed from 1998 to 2002 was estimated to be 1794-4486 birds per year, with the estimated total killed over this period ranging from 8972 to 18,490 birds. Models incorporating both density-independent and density-dependent scenarios were applied to levels of bycatch representative of that observed in the fishery. Density-independent scenarios showed that fishing mortality levels caused declines in the majority of simulated populations. In contrast, density-dependent scenarios produced populations that were more resilient to fishing mortalities. Although some modelling scenarios led to population growth, under most stochastic simulations median population halving and quasi-extinction times were less than 55 and 120 years, respectively. We conclude that the level of bycatch observed in the fishery is most likely unsustainable and threatens the survival of the Lord Howe Island population. This situation can be improved only with the development and implementation of mitigation measures that will halt or greatly reduce the level of bycatch currently observed. Improved knowledge on a range of demographic parameters for the species, combined with a clearer idea of the at-sea distribution of breeding and non-breeding shearwaters, will greatly assist in improving understanding and the management of this population.     

From both sides: Dire demographic consequences of carnivorous mice and longlining for the Critically Endangered Tristan albatrosses on Gough Island

The IUCN recently uplisted the Tristan albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) to Critically Endangered. Here we present new data indicating negative population trends on Gough Island arising from low adult survival (∼91%, ascribed to accidental mortality on fishing gear) and low breeding success (averaging 32%, due to mouse predation). Fledgling production from 1979 to 2007 and numbers of incubating adults from 1956 to 2007 have both decreased by ∼1% p.a. Consecutive annual counts of incubating adults and a population model permit the first reliable estimates of the Tristan albatross population, presently 5400 breeding adults and 11,300 birds in all age- and stage-classes. Population models explore scenarios of likely demographic trends using combinations of hypothetical best-case estimates vs. observed estimates for two key parameters: adult survival and breeding success. These scenarios highlight the relative benefits to the species of eradicating mice or mitigating bycatch. The model scenario using observed estimates predicts annual growth rate at −2.85%. Adult survival rates have probably decreased in recent years, concomitant with increased longline fishing effort, which might explain the discrepancy between counts and modelled trends. Negative trends cannot be reversed by improving breeding success alone, and adult survival must exceed an improbable 97% to balance the current chick production. A worst-case scenario including a fixed number of adult deaths annually predicted a catastrophic 4.2% p.a. decrease and extinction in ∼30 years. Population growth was most sensitive to adult survival, but even using an adult survival estimate without fishery mortality, current breeding success is insufficient to maintain the population. These findings do not support the ‘compensatory mitigation of bycatch’ model (offsetting bycatch impacts by eradicating invasive species), and the impacts of both fishery mortality and mouse predation must be addressed to improve the conservation status of the Critically Endangered Tristan albatross.     

Decline in whale shark size and abundance at Ningaloo Reef over the past decade: The world’s largest fish is getting smaller

Over-exploitation of whale sharks threatens the future of these wide-ranging pelagic fish. A long-term continuous record (4436 sightings) from a large aggregation (300-500 resident individuals) of whale sharks at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia shows that mean shark length declined linearly by nearly 2.0 m and relative abundance measured from ecotourism sightings (corrected for variation in search effort and environmental stochasticity) has fallen by approximately 40% over the last decade. This population-level result confirms previous predictions of population decline based on projection models parameterised using mark-recapture estimates of survival. The majority of these changes are driven by reductions in the number of large individuals in the population. Phenomenological time series models support a deterministic (extrinsic) decline in large females, although there was some evidence for density dependence in large males. These reductions have occurred despite the total protection of whale sharks in Australian waters. As this species is highly migratory, the rapid change in population composition over a decade (<1 whale shark generation) supports the hypothesis of unsustainable mortality in other parts of their range (e.g., overfishing), rather than the alternative of long-term abiotic or biotic shifts in the environment. As such, effective conservation of whale sharks will require international protection, and collaborative tagging studies to identify and monitor migratory pathways.     

Demography and conservation of the Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena

The Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena is the third rarest albatross species, with a breeding population of around 1500 pairs almost totally restricted to Gough Island in the Tristan da Cunha group, central South Atlantic. During January 2000, the entire breeding population of Gough was surveyed for the first time since 1956, and 2400 incubating pairs were counted. An analysis of the areas that are likely to have been surveyed most accurately in the past suggests that the population has decreased by around 28% over 46 years. The number of large chicks counted over three successive seasons (1999-2001) was highly variable (range 318-1129). The average count over this period (705 chicks) is less than counts made in 1979 (792) and 1982 (798). A total of 656 chicks were counted in September 2001, giving an island breeding success of just 27.3%. However, breeding success varied considerably in different areas of the island, ranging from 17.6 to 68.0%. During the 2001 season most breeding failures were of large chicks, and over 4 years where data were available, 75% of breeding failures occurred during the chick period. Predation by introduced house mice Mus musculus is the most likely cause of chick mortality. In a small study population, birds began breeding at an average age of 9.7 years and annual adult survival from 1985 to 2001 was 92.6% (SE=1.6%). Both breeding success and adult survival estimates are low in comparison with other Diomedea species and population modelling predicts a population decreasing at an annual rate of 2.9-5.3%. Further research is needed urgently to assess whether breeding success is typical, and to confirm that mouse predation is the cause of chick mortality. The low productivity of this species will compound the negative impacts of longline fishing mortality, which are likely to be reducing adult and juvenile survival.     

The conservation status of the spectacled petrel Procellaria conspicillata

The spectacled petrel Procellaria conspicillata is listed as critically endangered due to its small population size and ongoing mortality on long-lines. Spectacled petrels were counted in 2004, repeating a census made in 1999 at their sole breeding locality, Inaccessible Island. The 2004 survey took place earlier in the breeding season than the previous count, allowing for more robust estimates of burrow occupancy. During early incubation, birds responded to call playback at 69% of burrow entrances, but birds in at least 8% of burrows remained silent. Birds in shallow burrows were less likely to respond to playback than were those in deep burrows. Two repeat trials at 100 marked nests showed that at least 61% of apparently ‘unoccupied’ burrows were occupied on subsequent checks, resulting in an overall occupancy estimate of 91%. Occupancy was equally high in peripheral colonies. The apparent spatial extent of colonies increased slightly from 1999, and the estimate of total burrow numbers increased by 50%, from 5900 burrows in 1999 to 8900 in 2004. Validation surveys indicated that burrow numbers were underestimated (84 ± 3%) to the same extent as that in 1999 (85 ± 4%), and repeat checks of one colony where all nests were marked showed that even careful counts underestimated actual numbers of burrows by up to 10%. This suggests there are some 11-12,000 burrows, and assuming 90% occupancy, the adult population is likely to be at least 20,000 birds. The population has increased over the last five years, continuing the apparent recovery from a very small population size in the early 20th century. Despite this increase, demographic models indicate that the population remains at risk from relatively small increases in mortality, if mortality is determined primarily by fishing effort. Mitigation of long-line mortality remains the key conservation goal for this species.     

Impacts of chronic marine oil pollution and the murre hunt in Newfoundland on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations in the eastern Canadian Arctic

We developed a deterministic and stochastic age-based matrix projection population model to assess and quantify the impact of mortality caused by chronic oil pollution and legal hunting on thick-billed murre Uria lomvia populations breeding and wintering in eastern Canada. We calculate the potential population growth rate in the absence of anthropogenic mortality sources using a modeling technique that translates absolute number of birds killed from anthropogenic mortality to potential survival rates in the absence of these anthropogenic impacts. The intrinsic growth rate of the deterministic matrix based on vital rates from Coats Island (λ_d=1.0102), as well as the stochastic growth rate (λ_s=1.0098, 95% C.I. 0.9969-1.0226), matched observed population trends. Hunting mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.020 (0.012-0.039), oiling mortality reduced population growth rate by 0.025 (0.012-0.039). Combined these sources reduced the population growth rate by 0.047 (0.033-0.610). Although thick-billed murre populations are stable or slowly growing in eastern Canada, anthropogenic sources of mortality are reducing the ability of the population to grow, and increase vulnerability in these populations to changes in their environment and other pulse perturbations. Our modeling technique could be used to assess specific anthropogenic impacts on populations where a vital rates and numbers killed are known, but no long-term trend information is available.     

Interpreting the spatio-temporal patterns of sea turtle strandings: Going with the flow

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of specific mortality sources is crucial for management of species that are vulnerable to human interactions. Beachcast carcasses represent an unknown fraction of at-sea mortalities. While a variety of physical (e.g., water temperature) and biological (e.g., decomposition) factors as well as the distribution of animals and their mortality sources likely affect the probability of carcass stranding, physical oceanography plays a major role in where and when carcasses strand. Here, we evaluate the influence of nearshore physical oceanographic and wind regimes on sea turtle strandings to decipher seasonal trends and make qualitative predictions about stranding patterns along oceanfront beaches. We use results from oceanic drift-bottle experiments to check our predictions and provide an upper limit on stranding proportions. We compare predicted current regimes from a 3D physical oceanographic model to spatial and temporal locations of both sea turtle carcass strandings and drift bottle landfalls. Drift bottle return rates suggest an upper limit for the proportion of sea turtle carcasses that strand (about 20%). In the South Atlantic Bight, seasonal development of along-shelf flow coincides with increased numbers of strandings of both turtles and drift bottles in late spring and early summer. The model also predicts net offshore flow of surface waters during winter - the season with the fewest relative strandings. The drift bottle data provide a reasonable upper bound on how likely carcasses are to reach land from points offshore and bound the general timeframe for stranding post-mortem (< two weeks). Our findings suggest that marine turtle strandings follow a seasonal regime predictable from physical oceanography and mimicked by drift bottle experiments. Managers can use these findings to reevaluate incidental strandings limits and fishery takes for both nearshore and offshore mortality sources.     

Removing erosion control projects increases bank swallow (Riparia riparia) population viability modeled along the Sacramento River, California, USA

Spatially-explicit population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful method for modeling the extinction risk of populations that show variation over space and time. It is especially effective for comparing relative effect of different management scenarios on population dynamics. Here, I present a habitat patch-based PVA for a population of the California state-listed threatened bank swallow (Riparia riparia) nesting along the Sacramento River. This model incorporates the effects of habitat availability and location, density dependence, site fidelity, and stochasticity in survival and fecundity. River bank habitat patches suitable for this species were delineated using a geographic information systems (GIS) model of river bank height and were used in a PVA scenario analysis to assess the effects of habitat restoration—that could occur by removing bank erosion control projects (bank revetment)—on population viability. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model estimated probability of quasi-extinction (dropping below 2000 breeding pairs) ranged from 0 to 0.8 depending on the input parameters, with juvenile survival causing the greatest variability. However, comparing changes to the probability of quasi-extinction between the restored habitat scenario and current conditions showed a consistent 40-60% decrease in probability of quasi-extinction across all parameter combinations. The results of this research reaffirm the need for continued protection of the bank swallow as a listed species indicate that the removal of bank erosion control projects would increase viability of this population.     

Predicting the spread of the American grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in Europe: A call for a co-ordinated European approach

The introduction of the American eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in Europe is causing a dramatic decline of the native European red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris), due to competition. We used spatially explicit population dynamics models to illustrate the potential expansion of the grey squirrel from Italy, the only continental country with the species, into neighbouring countries. Simulations started with the known grey squirrel distributions in 1996 and modelled the spread for the next 100 years in two different scenarios. One “best case” in which a random seed crop pattern of poor, good and mast seed crops was simulated with concomitant effects on squirrel fecundity and mortality and one “worst case” scenario in which poor years were not included. In the best case scenario, it will take 30-40 years for grey squirrels to start invading the Alps and about 70-75 years to cross the border between Italy and France. First populations in Switzerland are predicted in 2051-2066. In the worst case scenario, the spread will be significantly faster: the species is predicted to reach France in 2026-2031 and Switzerland in 2031-2041. Removing two of the three populations of grey squirrel will likely postpone the invasion of Switzerland but not of France. Large areas of Europe contain potentially good habitat for grey squirrels, and expansion from Italy, to France, Switzerland and belong to most of Eurasia is simply a matter of time. This will represent a serious risk for the conservation of the native red squirrel and will have implications for national forest operations. However, a European policy towards introduced species is still lacking. There is therefore a need for a co-ordinated European approach to the management of the grey squirrel and other introduced species.     

Coexisting with fire: The case of the terrestrial tortoise Testudo graeca in mediterranean shrublands

Fire and fire management are recognized as important factors in biodiversity conservation. Measuring species-level demographic, behavioural and population responses to different fire regimes is essential for designing adequate management policies. Here we assessed the impact of fire on survival rates, reproduction and movement patterns in Testudo graeca, an endangered terrestrial tortoise inhabiting the Mediterranean region, a system in which fire plays a relevant role in the functioning of their ecosystems. Then we predicted the probabilities of quasi-extinction of T. graeca under several fire regimes and population sizes by means of stochastic population models. Our results showed that fire caused direct and delayed reductions in local survival, young individuals being the most affected. There were not differences in fecundity and movement patterns of tortoises between burned and unburned areas. Population models showed a strong variation in the probability of quasi-extinction of populations depending on the fire regime and the population size. Under fire frequencies similar to those occurring in the wild (<1 fire every 20–30 years) most tortoise populations seemed to buffer the effects of fires. However, when this threshold value of fire frequency was surpassed, the probability of quasi-extinction of populations exploded for all populations, except for those with the largest sizes. T. graeca populations may be able to cope with natural current fire frequencies, but the effects of more recurrent fires may severely threaten the species. Our results have straightforward applications for fire management purposes in those areas of the Mediterranean region where this endangered species is present.     

Population sizes, site fidelity and residence patterns of Australian snubfin and Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins: Implications for conservation

Very little is known about the ecology of snubfin Orcaella heinsohni and Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins Sousa chinensis in Australian waters. We used photo-identification data collected between 1999 and 2002 in Cleveland Bay, northeast Queensland, to estimate abundance, site fidelity and residence patterns of these species in order to make recommendations for their effective conservation and management. Our abundance estimates indicate that less than a hundred individuals of each species inhabit this coastal area. Even with relatively unbiased and precise abundance estimates population trends will be extremely difficult to detect in less than three years unless changes in population size are very high (>20% p.a.). Though both species are not permanent residents in Cleveland Bay, they both used the area regularly from year to year following a model of emigration and reimmigration. Individuals of both species spend periods of days to a month or more in coastal waters of Cleveland Bay before leaving, and periods of over a month outside the study area before entering the bay again. Because of their small population sizes and movement patterns, snubfin and humpback dolphins are particularly vulnerable to local extinction. Our results illustrate that: (1) detection of population trends should not be a necessary criterion for enacting conservation measures of both species in this region, and (2) efforts to maintain viable populations of both species in Cleveland Bay must include management strategies that integrate anthropogenic activities in surrounding areas.     

Estimates of sea turtle mortality from poaching and bycatch in Bahía Magdalena, Baja California Sur, Mexico

Bahia Magdalena on the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico, is an important feeding and nursery ground for black turtles Chelonia mydas, loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta, olive ridley turtles Lepidochelys olivacea, and hawksbill turtles Eretmochelys imbricata. Despite international and national protection, sea turtles continue to be caught incidentally and hunted for consumption in large numbers. This study examines the mortality of sea turtles in Bahia Magdalena, focusing on (1) species distribution and number of carcasses found, (2) causes of death, (3) size frequency distribution and % juveniles in the catch, and (4) changes in average size over the past years. A total of 1945 turtle carcasses were found from April 2000 to July 2003 along beaches and in towns of the region with loggerhead (44.1%) and black turtles (36.9%) being the dominant species. Slaughter for human consumption was the primary cause of death of carcasses found in towns (95-100%), while carcasses on beaches mostly died of unknown causes (76-100%). Circumstantial evidence suggests however, that incidental bycatch was the main mortality cause on beaches. Black turtles suffered the highest consumption mortality overall (91%), followed by olive ridley (84%), hawksbill (83%) and loggerhead turtles (63%). Over 90% of all turtles found were juveniles or subadults. Carapace length of black turtles declined consistently over the sampling period, while that of loggerhead turtles increased. Our results strongly suggest that turtles are being taken at high and unsustainable rates; this may partially explain why the populations have not recovered despite widespread protection on nesting beaches.     

Cost-effective abundance estimation of rare animals: Testing performance of small-boat surveys for killer whales in British Columbia

Top predators are often rare, subject to anthropogenic mortality, and possess life-history traits that make them inherently vulnerable to extinction. IUCN criteria recognise populations as Critically Endangered when abundance is <250 mature individuals, but estimating abundance of rare species can be more challenging than for common ones. Cost-effective methods are needed to provide robust abundance estimates. In marine environments, small boats are more widely accessible than large ships for researchers conducting sightings surveys with limited funds, but studies are needed into efficacy of small-boat surveys. This study compares line transect and mark-recapture estimates from small-boat surveys in summer 2004 and 2005 for ‘northern resident’ killer whales in British Columbia to true population size, known from censuses conducted by Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The line transect estimate of 195 animals (95% CI 27-559) used model averaging to incorporate uncertainty in the detection function, while the mark-recapture estimate of 239 animals (CI 154-370) used a simple two-sample Chapman estimator. Both methods produced estimates close to the true population size, which numbered 219 animals in 2004 and 235 in 2006, but both suffered from the small sample sizes and violations of some model assumptions that will vex most pilot studies of rare species. Initial abundance estimates from relatively low-cost surveys can be thought of as hypotheses to be tested as new data are collected. For species of conservation concern, any cost-effective attempt to estimate absolute abundance will assist status assessments, as long as estimates are presented with appropriate caveats.     

Population viability of Cape mountain zebra in Gamka Mountain Nature Reserve, South Africa: the influence of habitat and fire

The small Cape mountain zebra population in Gamka Mountain Nature Reserve represents a third of the entire gene pool of this endangered species and is thus vital for it’s conservation. Presently, management of this population is largely hands off, with the belief that it will grow to levels which will allow it to form a source for the mixing of mountain zebra stocks in the future. The growth of this population however, has been slow and we investigated the influence of habitat and fire on this growth. Firstly, we used a diffusion model to perform a population viability analysis. This analysis indicated that the population had a low probability of attaining quasi-extinction in the next 50 years (G = 0.0032). However, our findings indicated that less than 30% of the reserve was suitable for mountain zebra and that the preferred habitat would have to be burnt at unnaturally short intervals to sustain the present growth. We therefore argue that the risk of quasi-extinction to this population is greater than predicted and suggest that management options need to be implemented to reduce this risk. These options include; translocation to another protected area; acquisition of adjacent land; burning preferred habitat at unnaturally short intervals; forming a conservancy with adjacent landowners; leasing cultivated land for pasture. We suggest that only the latter two options are likely to stimulate mountain zebra population growth in the short term and that these should receive immediate attention.     

Beyond the wetland border: Estimating the impact of roads for two species of water snakes

We used models integrating road maps, traffic volume, and snake movements to examine the potential for roads to contribute to mortality in two species of water snakes that differ in their vagility, use of terrestrial habitats, and conservation status. Road networks and traffic volumes typical of three regions in Indiana, USA, may account for mortality of 14-21% of the population per year in the more vagile, terrestrial, and imperiled copperbelly water snake (Nerodia erythrogaster neglecta) but only 3-5% mortality in the more sedentary, aquatic, and common northern water snake (Nerodia sipedon). The majority (>91%) of road crossings and associated mortality are predicted to occur during overland migrations to other wetlands, suggesting roads bisecting travel routes between wetlands may function as mortality sinks. Our models highlight the proportionately greater risk of mortality for the more vagile and imperiled species, N. e. neglecta, and suggest current wetland conservation strategies that focus on the wetland alone are unlikely to adequately protect wetland biodiversity from certain types of anthropogenic habitat modification. What is needed is a landscape approach to wetland conservation that considers not only the quality of wetlands and nearby terrestrial habitats, but also ensures that terrestrial corridors between wetlands remain permeable and offer safe passage for wildlife.     

Quantitative variation as a tool for detecting human-induced impacts on genetic diversity

We propose quantitative genetic variation as a useful tool complementary to molecular variation in order to detect changes in biodiversity caused by different human-induced activities. We simulated a metapopulation setting under a number of realistic scenarios caused by anthropogenic activities (population isolation, reduced carrying capacity or reproductive rates, shifts in the local optima, and enhanced environmental variation or mutational rates). The effects on diversity of these scenarios were assessed for neutral variation estimated from molecular markers and for an additive quantitative trait that represents a typical morphological characteristic subject to stabilising selection promoting local adaptation to environmental conditions. The results show that monitoring quantitative genetic variation can be more informative than neutral variation to detect some human-induced environmental or genetic impacts on diversity, both at intra and interpopulation levels. We also compared the precision of diversity estimates obtained from molecular markers and quantitative traits. Under low migration rates and typical selection intensities for the quantitative trait, the precision of estimates can be substantially larger for a quantitative trait than for a single molecular marker. Thus, about 10-20 (2-4) independent markers are necessary for the precision of estimates of heterozygosity (population differentiation) from molecular markers to reach that of genetic variances (differentiation) from quantitative traits.     

Death from anthropogenic causes is partially compensatory in recovering wolf populations

There is substantial interest in how mortality rates affect animal populations, but mechanisms explaining when and under what circumstances particular causes of death incur demographic responses are far from clear. In theory, small or expanding populations should experience additive mortality from anthropogenic causes of death, but whether such effects are homogenous across a population or expressed only in certain high-risk individuals is open for debate. We used competing risks models to analyze mortality patterns among radio-collared wolves (Canis lupus, n = 711) from three populations in northwestern United States (1982-2004), and evaluated the degree to which anthropogenic mortality was additive vs. compensatory to natural demographic processes. Almost 80% (n = 320) of wolves dying of known fates were killed by anthropogenic causes (legal control, illegal killing, harvest in Canada, vehicle collision), and additive effects of anthropogenic mortality were most pronounced in northwestern Montana where wolf exposure to humans and livestock was high compared to either the Greater Yellowstone Area or central Idaho, where anthropogenic risk was lower. In contrast, risk from natural hazards was lower in northwestern Montana than in the other areas, implying some degree of compensatory mortality from anthropogenic risk. Animals recruited to the study following human-wolf conflict had markedly higher anthropogenic risk than those recruited for standard monitoring purposes, and juvenile wolves as well as dispersers, succumbed to higher anthropogenic risk. Multivariate models revealed that increasing wolf population density promoted higher anthropogenic risk and reduced natural risk, indicating that partially-compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality actually became increasingly additive with population density. The observed compensatory mortality and hazard heterogeneity in our study implies that demographic responses to mortality risk may be complex and more subtle than previously thought; the density-dependent effect of anthropogenic mortality portends a stabilizing influence of humans on recovering wolf populations. We conclude that future assessment of the role of anthropogenic mortality should include individual-based hazard estimation as a complement to traditional population-level approaches.     

Counting elusive animals: Comparing field and genetic census of the entire mountain gorilla population of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda

Accurate population size estimates are an essential part of every effective management plan for conserving endangered species. However, censusing rare and elusive wild animals is challenging and often relies on counting indirect signs, such as nests or feces. Despite widespread use, the accuracy of such estimates has rarely been evaluated. Here we compare an estimate of population size derived solely from field data with that obtained from a combination of field and genetic data for the critically endangered population of mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda. After genotyping DNA from 384 fecal samples at 16 microsatellite loci, the population size estimate was reduced by 10.1% to 302 individuals, compared with 336 gorillas estimated using the traditional nest-count based method alone. We found that both groups and lone silverbacks were double-counted in the field and that individuals constructed multiple nests with an overall rate of 7.8%, resulting in the overestimation of the population size in the absence of genetic data. Since the error associated with the traditional field method exceeded the estimated population growth of 5% in the last 4 years, future genetic censusing will be needed to determine how the population size is changing. This study illustrates that newly improved molecular methods allow fast, efficient and relatively affordable genotyping of several hundred samples, suggesting that genetic censusing can be widely applied to provide accurate and reliable population size estimates for a wide variety of species.     

Potential limits to anthropogenic mortality for harbour porpoises in the Baltic region

We estimated potential limits to anthropogenic mortality for harbour porpoises in the Baltic region (the Skagerrak, Kattegat, Great Belt and Little Belt Seas, the Kiel and Mecklenburg Bights, and the Baltic Sea) using conservation objectives set by the Agreement on the Conservation of Small Cetaceans in the Baltic and North Seas (ASCOBANS). Mortality limits (ML) were calculated as the product of: a minimum estimate of abundance, one-half the maximum rate of increase and an uncertainty factor. Previous models show that if anthropogenic mortality is less than ML, a depleted population should recover to more than 80% of carrying capacity, meeting the conservation objectives of ASCOBANS. Minimum estimates of by-catches exceed ML for the population structure hypothesis tested, indicating that these catches will impede recovery. The same result was also evident for other hypothetical population structures. We conclude that immediate management actions are necessary to reduce the magnitude of by-catches to meet the conservation objectives of ASCOBANS.     

Expectations for population growth at new breeding locations for the vulnerable New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) using a simulation model

Management plans for threatened or recovering large vertebrate species that are increasing in population size and range focus on the establishment of viable populations within set temporal limits. New Zealand (Hookers) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) were declared a threatened species in 1997, and New Zealand legislation requires that threatened species of marine mammals must be managed to reduce human-induced mortality and achieve a non-threatened status within 20 years. The present breeding distribution of P. hookeri is highly localised, with over 95% of total annual pup production located at Auckland Islands and almost all of the remainder at Campbell Island. Breeding elsewhere has been ephemeral or restricted to <10 adult females. The only recorded sustainable breeding at a new location has been at Otago, South Island, New Zealand. This breeding population consisted of a total of four breeding females in 2002 and is derived from one immigrant female that gave birth to her first pup in the 1993/1994 breeding season. The New Zealand Department of Conservation management plan specifies that to achieve a non-threatened status P. hookeri (1) at Otago must increase in the number of breeding females to ?10, and (2) must establish ?two new breeding locations within the 20-year time frame, each with ?10 breeding females. This study 1) projects the population growth trends at a new location (Otago) to see if it will achieve ?10 breeding females within the legislated time frame, and (2) examines the likelihood that other breeding locations will establish elsewhere given the demographic information available for this species. We present 20 deterministic and three stochastic Leslie matrix model scenarios for female population growth for the initial years following the start of breeding at a new location. Our results indicate that (1) a new breeding population derived from one immigrant female is unlikely to reach 10 breeding females in 20 years; this duration is more likely to be 23-41 years (deterministic models) or 23-26 years (stochastic model), (2) the likelihood of two new sites establishing within 20 years is unquantifiable, but the probability is low, and (3) if the legislated outcome and time limit are not revised in the population management plan, the feasibility and effectiveness of re-locating young females could be investigated.